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Why Trump’s plea for a change in venue (probably) won’t work

Donald Trump wants his trial moved to Staten Island, because there are more Republican voters there. Is this likely to work? Almost certainly not.

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The day after Donald Trump learned of his indictment, the former president went to work — by going after the judge expected to preside over his arraignment.

Judge Juan Merchan, whose name the Republican misspelled, “HATES” the former president, Trump wrote, adding that the jurist “viciously” treated his family business in a separate recent case. When his lawyer publicly contradicted his client’s rhetoric, Trump doubled down, not only condemning the judge, but adding that Merchan “must be changed!”

But in the same online rant, published to the former president’s social media platform, Trump also said that the venue “must be changed,” too, because he believes it’s “IMPOSSIBLE” for him to get a “Fair Trial” in Manhattan.

This morning, with just hours remaining before his arraignment, the Republican pushed the same line once more. (This was originally published in an all-caps harangue, but to make it easier to read, I’m converting it to standard capitalization.)

“Very unfair venue, with some areas that voted 1% Republican. This case should be moved to nearby Staten Island — would be a very fair and secure location for the trial. Additionally, the highly partisan judge & his family are well known Trump haters. He was an unfair disaster on a previous Trump related case, wouldn’t recuse, gave horrible jury instructions, & impossible to deal with during the witch hunt trial. His daughter worked for ‘Kamala’ & now the Biden-Harris campaign. Kangaroo court!!!”

For now, let’s put aside the strange and cheap shots at Merchan, who has a strong reputation as a fair judge, and his family. Let’s also temporarily put aside the question of whether Trump’s lawyers might actually make a genuine attempt at changing the venue, or whether their client is just talking nonsense as part of a clumsy public-relations strategy.

Let’s instead consider the underlying question: Is it possible that a trial would be moved out of Manhattan?

Probably not.

“The only reason he would try to move venue to Staten Island is that he thinks — based on voter registration — that that’s a friendlier potential jury pool for him,” Jennifer Rodgers, a former federal prosecutor, told Bloomberg News over the weekend. “That’s not going to fly.”

In other words, defendants don’t have the luxury of saying, “I’m a Republican, and there are more Republicans on Staten Island, so I want my trial in a ‘red’ area instead of a ‘blue’ area.” That’s just not how the justice system is supposed to work.

Chuck Rosenberg, a former U.S. attorney, senior FBI official, and legal analyst for MSNBC, explained this well on the air this morning.

“We tried a 9/11 conspirator in federal court in the Eastern District of Virginia — Alexandria, about three miles from the Pentagon — and we were able to assemble a fair jury,” Rosenberg said. “So, you’re not looking for a jury that’s never heard of Donald Trump or Stormy Daniels or hush money payments. You’re not looking for a jury or jurors that have no opinions. You’re looking for jurors who can be fair, who can sit in the courtroom, listen to the evidence, and follow the instructions of the judge. That’s all you’re looking for.

“In a city with millions of people, the notion that you can’t find fair jurors in Manhattan is ludicrous. The Trump team may move for a change in venue. I don’t give that much chance of success.”

It’s a safe bet that the former president’s legal defense team is aware of this. What’s less obvious is whether his attorneys will pursue such an ill-fated effort at their client's behest. Watch this space.