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In debt ceiling fight, McCarthy can’t shake his arithmetic problem

As Speaker Kevin McCarthy's debt ceiling hostage crisis moves forward, he can't overcome one of his biggest problems: His arithmetic doesn't work.

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House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s plan to hold the debt ceiling hostage is not new. Not only was the California Republican a member of the House GOP leadership the last time his party created such a crisis, McCarthy made no secret of his plans to threaten the nation’s economic security ahead of last fall’s midterm elections.

The Republican leader, in other words, has had plenty of time to figure out what he’s doing. It just doesn’t appear to be going especially well. Roll Call reported on the scripted speech the House speaker delivered late yesterday afternoon:

House Republicans have started downplaying their desire to cut spending in conjunction with lifting the debt limit, seeking to reframe their strategy as targeting “waste” and finding “efficiencies.” Speaker Kevin McCarthy delivered a speech Monday evening from a corridor outside his office known as the “speaker’s balcony hallway,” in which he described the national debt as “the greatest threat” to the nation’s future. But not once did McCarthy say Republicans would “cut” spending.

Over the course of the last several weeks, we’ve had some sense that Republicans would cause a deliberate economic catastrophe unless Democrats agreed to dramatic spending cuts. No one, including GOP officials themselves, seemed to have any idea what those cuts were supposed to entail or what the party even hoped to accomplish, but in the broadest possible sense, there appeared to be an overarching goal: To prevent default, Republicans would have to see significant cuts.

And so, when McCarthy announced plans to deliver formal remarks yesterday on the debt ceiling, some hoped that we might finally get some clarity on what GOP lawmakers expected to prevent them from hurting us. Maybe, some speculated, the speaker would start filling in the gaps on the Republicans’ hostage note.

It was wishful thinking. Not only did McCarthy fail to explain what spending cuts he and his party expect to see, he also failed to reference spending cuts altogether, pointing only to “wasteful Washington spending” — a phrase he used repeatedly during his 10-minute address — without giving any sense of what might constitute “wasteful” from his perspective.

Those hoping for some kind of clarity were left wanting.

That said, the House speaker did share what he saw as the parameters for the process as it moves forward. The congressman began by emphasizing his newfound interest in moving “towards a balanced budget,” before adding that cuts to Medicare and Social Security “are off the table,” as are reducing deficits through increased taxes.

The result is an arithmetic problem the Republican leader just can’t shake: McCarthy claims to want a balanced budget, while simultaneously claiming that he doesn’t want to take steps that would move the budget towards being balanced. It’s a bit like someone saying they’re determined to lose weight, while quickly adding that he has no interest in eating less or exercising, all while making vague references to wasteful calories he's reluctant to identify.

“Of all the dangers we face, the greatest threat to our future is our national debt,” McCarthy said yesterday. That’s ridiculous on its face, but it was also undermined by his own positions: If the debt really were “the greatest threat to our future,” the Republican speaker would have no qualms about putting everything on the table, including rolling back ineffective tax breaks for the wealthy.

Except, he’s doing nothing of the kind.

Revisiting our coverage from a couple of weeks ago, the budget math remains stubborn: Republicans say they want to balance the budget. Those same Republicans say they don’t want to cut Social Security. Or Medicare. Or Medicaid. Or veterans benefits. Or funds for the military.

What would it take to balance the budget — the ostensible GOP goal — while leaving all of these priorities intact? Catherine Rampell explained in a recent column that this would necessitate “eliminating nearly all other domestic spending.”

And before the right responds, “That sounds great,” let’s note that such a move would mean no funding for border protection, air-traffic control, agriculture, and a few thousand of the priorities that benefit the American public on a daily basis.

Or put another way, McCarthy doesn’t have a plan, doesn’t have a clear goal, and doesn’t have a credible vision on how to pursue the budget priorities he was content to ignore before there was a Democrat in the White House.

So how scared should Americans be about Republicans crashing our economy on purpose? At one point in his pre-written remarks, the speaker declared, “Defaulting on our debt is not an option. But neither is a future of higher taxes, higher interest rates, and an economy that doesn’t work for working Americans.”

I continue to believe that when it comes to the GOP’s debt ceiling crisis, the most dangerous word in the party’s vocabulary is “but.”

President Joe Biden will deliver his second State of the Union address on Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET. Follow msnbc.com/sotu for live updates and analysis from experts and insiders.