LAWRENCE O`DONNELL, MSNBC HOST: Good evening, Rachel.
And the other two are Millsfield, which has maybe 21 people living there thereabout. And, of course, the most famous one, Dixville Notch, which started doing this in 1960. The other places actually did it before Dixville Notch, but Dixville Notch gets all the attention because there`s so few, there`s only about a dozen people there. And you win Dixville Notch with single digits, and we`ll be looking at those numbers when the time comes.
It`s New Hampshire -- in other words, New Hampshire has been desperately trying to get attention in elections since 1936 when they first did midnight voting. And now, of course, the first presidential primary. They have that.
RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC HOST: And we all -- and they say jump and we say how high, and it`s just
MADDOW: And it`s just -- it`s apparently indelible. No one can escape it. But we do it every four years. I have to tell you, every four years, I find it totally fascinating and exciting.
O`DONNELL: And that`s why I`m in New Hampshire tonight.
MADDOW: Excellent. Well done, my friend. Thanks, Lawrence.
O`DONNELL: Thank you, Rachel.
Well, here at MSNBC election headquarters in Manchester, New Hampshire, we will be joined throughout this hour by three friends and experts who have been running all over this state for days now covering this campaign, Joy Reid, John Heilemann, and "The Boston Globe`s" James Pindell.
We are now, as Rachel said, exactly two hours away from those very first votes for president being cast in the very first presidential primary of this election year. Those first votes will be cast just after midnight, just after the clock strikes midnight. It will be among those other places, of course, the very famous Dixville Notch. Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, close to the Canadian border.
Since 1960, it has been a New Hampshire tradition to have that vote in Dixville Notch. First on Election Day, and also the first Election Day, there`ll be the first ones to report the results. They traditionally vote a minute after midnight. Four years ago, Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton decisively in Dixville Notch by only four votes. The total vote was 4-0.
According to "Boston Globe`s" daily tracking poll with New Hampshire voters, Bernie Sanders seems positioned to come in first in New Hampshire tomorrow night. "The Boston Globe"/Suffolk University poll has Bernie Sanders in the lead now at 27 percent. Pete Buttigieg at 19 percent. Amy Klobuchar, Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren all tied within the margin of error for third place, which Senator Klobuchar at 14 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 12 percent, Joe Biden at 12 percent.
Money is clearly not the most important factor in the competition in New Hampshire, because billionaire Tom Steyer has spent more money on TV advertising than all of the other campaigns combined in New Hampshire. And he is polling at 2 percent tonight in New Hampshire. But money does seem to be an important factor in the national campaign, where according to a new Quinnipiac poll, billionaire Mike Bloomberg, who has already spent hundreds of millions of dollars on TV advertising has zoomed into a statistical tie for second place in that national poll. Sanders is the new front-runner at 25 percent, followed by Joe Biden, Mike Bloomberg, and Elizabeth Warren all in a three-way statistical tie for second place, within the margin error in that poll.
Joe Biden is at 17 percent. Mike Bloomberg at 15, Elizabeth Warren at 14 percent. Pete Buttigieg is at 10 percent in that national poll. And Senator Amy Klobuchar is 4 percent in the national poll. You will be bombarded with numbers during this presidential campaign and already have been, especially polling numbers and fund-raising numbers.
But in the end, the only numbers that matter are the numbers of delegates to the Democratic National Convention that the candidates win.
And after Iowa, this is the delegate count. Buttigieg has 14, Sanders has 12, Elizabeth Warren has 8. Joe Biden has 6. And Am Klobuchar has 1. That`s it.
And tomorrow night, probably all of those candidates are likely to pick up more delegate support in New Hampshire. And if the delegates continue to be split among five candidates, it is entirely possible that no one will win enough delegates during the primaries to secure the Democratic nomination.
And so, as important as New Hampshire`s voting is tomorrow night, you voters and all of the other Democratic primary states will be casting votes that are just as important as the votes that New Hampshire will begin to count in just a couple of hours in Dixville Notch. We`ve invited all of the top tier candidates to join us tonight. Two of them were able to work us into their campaign schedules on this final night in the New Hampshire campaign, Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator Amy Klobuchar.
Here`s a sample of the closing arguments here in New Hampshire from the other top tier candidates.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Tomorrow could begin the end of Donald Trump.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
If we win here in New Hampshire after winning in Iowa, I think we got a great chance to win in Nevada. I think we have a strong shot in South Carolina and California and the states that follow. So if we win here tomorrow, I think we got a path to victory for the Democratic nomination.
PETE BUTTIGIEG (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The president of the United States thinks we`re suckers. But we know -- we know that there will be accountability for all of those broken promises. If the Senate was the jury last week, we`re the jury this year. And we get to have the final verdict on the president of the United States.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Like many of you, I`ve had real losses in my life. Like many of you have. But I will be, excuse my language, I`ll be damned if I`m going to stand by and watch us lose this country to Donald Trump a second time.
This is the United States of America. It`s time to lift our heads up and remember, there`s not a thing beyond our capacity if we act together. So let`s get up and take back this country and take it back now!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O`DONNELL: We are joined now by Massachusetts Senior Senator Elizabeth Warren who will now have her LAST WORD with New Hampshire voters on this program.
Senator Warren, thank you very much for joining us tonight. We really appreciate it.
SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-MA), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Oh, thank you for having me. It`s fun to be here.
O`DONNELL: And as is often the case in a presidential campaign that involves an incumbent president running for reelection, the incumbent president frequently sets the campaign agenda as he did today by issuing a budget in which President Trump cuts Medicare and cuts Medicaid. These are promises he made to not cut health care funding. Also would be cutting funding to the Affordable Care Act. He`s actually, as you know, in court trying to eliminate the Affordable Care Act completely.
Your reaction to the Trump budget cuts in health care?
WARREN: You know, this is just one more reason that we have as our number one job come November is beat Donald Trump.
But understand this: a country that elected Donald Trump already has serious problems. We`ve been undercutting America`s middle class for decades now. And Donald Trump is just taking this to new lows, with everything he is trying to do.
People are struggling to pay for health care. So, what does Donald Trump try to do? Let`s make it worse.
People struggle in this country and Donald Trump -- they are struggling to get by on a Social Security check. Donald Trump wants to make that worse.
We can`t have four more years of Donald Trump. But we also can`t go back.
For me, what this is all about is putting government not on the side of billionaires who don`t want to pay taxes, not on the side of big corporations that owe no real loyalty to this country, not on the side of lobbyists who can get rich off this for years now. It`s put this government on the side of hardworking Americans.
That`s why I`m in this fight. That`s what I`m fighting for. And I think that`s how we`re going to beat Donald Trump.
O`DONNELL: Senator, we have never seen so many progressive tax plans in a Democratic presidential primary. You have a very progressive tax plan, including a wealth tax.
O`DONNELL: But all the other candidates do, too.
I want to ask -- in a Warren presidency, let`s assume that Mitch McConnell is still in the United States Senate and might still be in control of it by a vote or two or close to it but certainly in a filibuster position, and the best that can get through Congress, the best Nancy Pelosi can manage is basically the Biden tax plan today, which is basically a restoration of the Obama tax rates, pushing the income tax rate back up to 39 percent, but no Warren wealth tax, none of those proposals that you`ve made beyond raising the top income tax.
Would you veto that if that`s what the Democratic -- Democrats in Congress were able to send you?
So, understand this -- look, the approach I use is, you make something better for working families, then, yes, let`s do it. But then I`m going to get up the next morning and fight to make it better, because that`s what we have to do. We have to take our wins and keep fighting to make it stronger.
But I want to say something really important about this point you`re making on taxes. Understand this, that 2 cent wealth tax that I have been pushing, it`s not just popular among Democrats. It`s popular among Republicans across this nation.
Look, Democrats and Republicans understand that they`re just getting ripped off, just the wealth tax itself, that 2 cent tax on fortunes above $50 million, understand this, the 99 percent last year paid 7.2 percent of their total wealth in taxes. That top one-tenth of 1 percent that I`m talking about, they paid 3.2 percent, less than half as much.
So, here is my plan around this: I`m going to fight for the wealth tax from the White House. And I`m going to ask people across this country to fight to press our Congress to do the people`s business.
And I want to add one more point. You said, Mitch McConnell may be able to block this with a filibuster. Look, if Mitch McConnell tries to do to me what he did to Barack Obama, year after year of just blocking everything, then I say it`s time to get rid of the filibuster.
If we want to make real change in this country, you can`t cling to the filibuster. The filibuster is what gives the giant corporations, everybody who loves this complicated tax thing, that gives them all the breaks, that`s what gives them a veto. And it`s true everywhere.
We keep that filibuster and all our fight against climate change is going to have a veto by the oil industry. We keep that filibuster and the gun industry will have a veto on real changes on gun violence.
So, for me, this is about getting things done. And if Mitch McConnell tries to block doing the people`s business, then we get rid of the filibuster and we do what needs to be done in this country.
O`DONNELL: I was at one of your campaign events this weekend. And some of the people were shopping and two of the people I talked to were trying to decide between Senator Sanders and yourself.
What would you tell them? What is your biggest policy difference with Bernie Sanders?
WARREN: So, look, you know, I don`t like to knock other candidates, because the number one thing we`ve got to do is come together as a party and beat Donald Trump. And that`s what I think I am best positioned to do.
We don`t -- we don`t need a repeat of 2016 where this is Democrat against Democrat. I run on core Democratic values. But this is what I`ve been out there doing all my life is fighting for hardworking families. It`s about doing this in a market where we get these markets to work for people.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that I fought to get passed into law and that I spent a year standing up for President Obama was all about taking a market that was cheating people and leveling it out so that people have a chance to get mortgages and credit cards without getting ripped off. That`s how markets should work. Markets without rules are theft. But markets with rules can work for people.
There are some areas where markets aren`t going to work. They`re not going to work in education. They don`t work in health care.
But basic financial markets, we need those markets to work and we need them to work for our families. Not just to be lawless markets that rip people off. That`s what I fight for.
O`DONNELL: Senator, you`ve joined us several times throughout the campaign. I want to thank you for that.
I want to give you the last 90 seconds we have here to just make your closing statement to the voters of New Hampshire.
WARREN: So, we got to beat Donald Trump. And the best way we`re going to do that is to pull our party together. How do we do that? We do it by running on core Democratic values, ones that every Democrat can stand for and fight for.
We also do it by acknowledging what`s broken in this country, what hasn`t worked for a very, very long time. We`ve had a government that works great for the rich and the powerful. It`s just not working for anyone else.
If we`re going to be an America where the only way that you make it forward is you be -- you got to be a billionaire or you got to suck up to the billionaires or you got to be supported by super PACs that are financed by billionaires, then buckle up, because we`re going to have a country that just works better for them.
I think we`ve got this unique possibility in 2020 to build an America that doesn`t just work for a handful of folks born into privilege, but an America that works for everyone. We do that, grassroots financing, grassroots organizing, grassroots democracy.
And if you think that`s the right way to do it, go to ElizabethWarren.com. Be part of this. Pitch 5 bucks. Do an hour of telephoning.
But get in this fight, because this moment in history will not come our way again. This is our moment. To dream big, fight hard and win.
O`DONNELL: Senator Elizabeth Warren, thank you very much for joining us. We really appreciate it.
WARREN: Thank you. It`s good to be here.
O`DONNELL: Thank you.
And after we squeeze in a quick break, we will be back with Joy Reid, John Heilemann, James Pindell. They`ve been running around New Hampshire nonstop. But now, they will stop and they will think and they will share their wisdom about the New Hampshire primary, and presidential candidate, Senator Amy Klobuchar, will also join us later in this hour.
O`DONNELL: Yesterday, I saw Pete Buttigieg campaigning in person for the first time in a middle school gymnasium in Nashua, New Hampshire. And when one member of the audience asked him how he would deal with Mitch McConnell and the GOP Senate, Pete Buttigieg said this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUTTIGIEG: So, I will always, of course, try, in good faith to work across the aisle. But when good faith is lacking, as it has been lately in the United States Senate GOP, that`s when the airplane comes in. There`s that big blue and white airplane that comes with the oval office. I think the highest and best use of that big airplane is to fly it right into the backyard of a senator who is getting in the way and remind them that they are not only defying my White House, they are defying their own voters and let their voters have a say on what ought to be done. That`s how we`re going to get these things through.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O`DONNELL: Joining our discussion now, John Heilemann, national affairs analyst for NBC News and MSNBC. He is the co-host of Showtime`s "The Circus", and editor in chief of "The Recount".
Joy Reid is with us. She`s the host of "A.M. JOY" weekends on MSNBC.
And James Pindell is political reporter for "The Boston Globe".
Joy Reid, the reason I played that is that it is -- every candidate has a version of that.
JOY REID, MSNBC HOST, "A.M. JOY": Right.
O`DONNELL: If Mitch McConnell is still majority leader, I will fly Air Force One to Kentucky, which Donald Trump won by 30 points, and I will scare Mitch McConnell with a speech in Kentucky. I wonder why that hasn`t worked yet.
REID: You know, I think it is the right answer that a consultant might give you to say. But it is not the answer to the question, right, because it wouldn`t work. I mean, I disagree that they all say it, because I think Elizabeth Warren has said something different, which is I will do whatever I can to just pass it and do it by executive order. And I`ll do as much as I can by executive order, because she understands how the Senate works. So, I think having that experience in Washington, this is where it helps.
O`DONNELL: Yes, that`s true. John, when I have put it to Elizabeth Warren as I almost -- I sort of did and didn`t just then. But in the past I put it to her, what if Mitch McConnell is still the majority leader? And then she relies on executive order. But they all -- they are all kind of pretending that they can get through tax bills and they can get through legislation that no one knows the path through Congress.
JOHN HEILEMANN, MSNBC NATIONAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: There`s only one way is to beat Mitch McConnell. It`s all made up without being able to real -- the real answer is I will build such a broad coalition that we will take back the Senate. That`s the answer. That`s the only answer.
In a world where Mitch McConnell is majority leader, all the rest are made up answers.
REID: Or where he`s minority leader, because he did lot as minority.
HEILEMANN: That`s what I mean, though, where Democrats control the Senate.
REID: You need to get rid of him.
O`DONNELL: And, James, that`s basically Bernie`s answer.
JAMES PINDELL, THE BOSTON GLOBE POLITICAL REPORTER: Yes.
O`DONNELL: You know, if I win the presidency, it`s a giant movement. Obviously, a lot would come with me. Still getting to the threshold of votes you need in the Senate is hard to see that --
PINDELL: And, by the way, it`s also Mike Bloomberg`s argument as well.
PINDELL: I`m going to help fund Senate campaigns and then they`re going to take over the Senate. To take it to another level, what is amazing about Elizabeth Warren`s campaign and how it dropped in the fall and dropped when she got specific on how she would pay for Medicare for All, how it would start in year three? Is -- I know this is a horrible analogy, but it reminded me of Trump. And let me tell you why.
It didn`t matter that Trump was going to say Mexico paid for it, because he wasn`t going to get a wall. And right now, Medicare for All is not going to pass. So, who cares how you`re going to pay for it? Bernie Sanders is getting a slide on it. He hasn`t announced how he`s going to pay for it.
And so, when we get to Mitch McConnell and how it`s going to happen all these plans, what`s going to happen to the wealth tax, these are the arguments that Democrats should have. It`s important that Elizabeth Warren is a thought leader, but let`s remember the reality here, which is where do you stand, who do you like? But if we`re willing to make a decision in New Hampshire, in two hours, in Dixville Notch, in Millsfield, which I`m really -- I`m a fan of Millsfield on this, when they got screwed, then what is the argument as to how you are going to beat Trump?
REID: Can I just make a point that people didn`t -- haven`t asked Bernie Sanders and they demanded to know it of Elizabeth Warren, which is partly us. It`s partly our --
O`DONNELL: But I think that`s because Elizabeth Warren popped up in the polls in such a way that people took the possibility of a Warren presidency very seriously at a time when they were not considering the possibility of a Sanders presidency. I think that`s why she got that burden.
REID: But he is up there and no one is asking him that.
PINDELL: And he`s been running for five years on this.
REID: He`s been running for five years on it.
HEILEMANN: There is one other difference, though, is that Sanders usually in the way of the form question was put, will you -- will you agree to reach -- will you say not that you won`t raise taxes? And the one thing that Bernie said all along is, I will raise questions. And I think that is where part of how he gets out having to answer specifically. He says, I`m going to raise taxes on the middle class which makes everybody say, OK, wow, like that`s a pretty politically risky thing to say. He then has an argument for why it will pay for itself.
But I think part of why he gets a pass is because he is willing to cross that Rubicon. She was for a long time saying --
REID: She`s not --
HEILEMANN: I`m not -- well, I won`t say what I will or won`t do. She wouldn`t answer the question at all. And I think part of her problem was that she neither said, no, I won`t, nor does she say, yes, I will.
HEILEMANN: What she was, I`m not going to talk about it.
REID: Because saying you`re going to raise taxes on the middle class is usually a candidacy killer.
HEILEMANN: Yes, but not for clearly Bernie.
O`DONNELL: So, at the top of the polls now in New Hampshire, Bernie, Buttigieg, these are two candidacies who have said the least about specific things within --
O`DONNELL: -- their legislative proposals, which historically is strategically the best way to run for president?
REID: Yes, but you want to be vague, new and have almost no record, because there`s not a lot to attack, right? If you`ve got a long record, there`s more oppo research on you.
So, the sort of model of a Pete Buttigieg is the model that tends to work, because you come in with less baggage that can be attacked by your side.
PINDELL: And for Bernie, because the uber branding, the meta branding of what they represent, that is more than the actual policy.
O`DONNELL: All right. We`re going to squeeze in a break here. Please stay with us.
The panel is gong to stay with us and come back.
When we come back, presidential candidate, Senator Amy Klobuchar, will join us. She is going to join us next after the final "Boston Globe" tracking poll shows Senator Klobuchar moving up sharply in the polls here in New Hampshire, after Friday night`s debate.
O`DONNELL: Over the weekend, the Boston Globe/Suffolk University, New Hampshire tracking poll shows Senator Amy Klobuchar getting a significant boost in the polls from Friday night`s debate, which included memorable moments like this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-MN) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: But what you said, Pete, as you were campaigning through Iowa, as three of us were jurors in that impeachment hearing, you said it was exhausting to watch, and that you wanted to turn the channel and watch cartoons.
It is easy to go after Washington, because that`s a popular thing to do. It is much harder, as I see Senator Shaheen in the front row, such a leader, it is much harder to lead, and much harder to take those difficult positions.
Because I think this going after every single thing that people do, because it`s popular to say, and makes you look like a cool newcomer. I just, I don`t think that`s what people want right now. We have a newcomer in the White House, and look where it got us. I think having some experience is a good thing.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O`DONNELL: Joining us now for her LAST WORD on this program with New Hampshire voters, Minnesota senior Senator Amy Klobuchar, candidate for President of the United States.
KLOBUCHAR: Thank you.
O`DONNELL: Thank you. It`s been a long road to New Hampshire.
KLOBUCHAR: It has.
O`DONNELL: Thank you very much for joining us, once again tonight. So when you`re running against an incumbent President, as I said to Senator Warren at the beginning of this hour, the incoming President frequently sets a campaign agenda by actions taken as President.
In addition to the budget cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, which we discussed already, the President now has his attorney general, working with Rudy Giuliani, in some unspecified way. There`s some porthole that the attorney general has opened up for Rudy Giuliani to bring what to the Justice Department about what. You`re a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, will you be able to investigate that on the Committee?
KLOBUCHAR: I would like to. Of course, right now, in this in the chairmanship of the Republicans that I want to change this President by winning big and by winning these Senate seats, but it must be investigated.
The President didn`t hire Rudy Giuliani to do estate planning. All right. He hired him to basically be his henchmen. And there are official channels when we have a government investigation, and that is the Justice Department, and that is our intelligence agencies. And all of them have uniformly said that is Russia invaded our election, that it is not Ukraine. The President`s own intelligence heads have made that very clear.
And why the Attorney General of the United States would be taking information by someone like Rudy Giuliani, who has been so discredited is beyond me. And it`s just - as you can see, this is why we have this hearing. Our fear was that it would continue.
O`DONNELL: As President would you expect your attorney general, in January, to ask the Inspector General of the Justice Department to investigate William Barr`s activities with Rudy Giuliani?
KLOBUCHAR: Well, I think what we have to do is look back to make sure that everything that happened is not affecting us going now. I have no idea what investigation I would launch, only because I think that is up to an attorney general. I think the President shouldn`t be involving herself in the details of that. And that`s one of the problems that`s been going on with this administration.
The main goal for me is to pass democracy reform. The first bill that I want to get done as President is basically H.R.1, and that is measures that make it easier to vote. Many of those bills are mine. And then also, making sure that we have secure elections, so foreign government can`t interfere in our election.
And you`d be surprised at how many people bring up things like constitutional amendment to overturn citizens united right here in New Hampshire. Not to bring it up to New Hampshire again, Lawrence, but it is - it`s something that`s on people`s minds. We cannot have a democracy if people are left out of it and we can have a democracy if a foreign government is invading it.
O`DONNELL: So the President`s budget announces budget cuts in Medicare, in Medicaid, in the Affordable Care Act. He`s - and as we know in court, he`s trying to completely eliminate the Affordable Care Act. But we know with this President this won`t last a week. That - you know, how in Congress when the other party`s President sends up a budget the - that the party - opposition party says, "Oh, it`s dead on arrival."
Donald Trump will say that his own budget is done on right. Within 48 hours he`ll be saying, "Don`t worry, no Medicaid cuts, no Medicare cuts. How do you run against the guy who on Monday proposes Medicare and Medicaid cuts and then disowns them on Tuesday or Wednesday, as I am betting he will?
KLOBUCHAR: I think you run on reality. And that`s how I close that debate on Friday night. That --well, he`s boasting about things with the economy and going down to Mar-a-Lago and telling his friends, you just got a lot richer.
There are a lot of people right here in New Hampshire and around the country that aren`t feeling that prosperity. They`re struggling to pay for their childcare. They`re struggling to fill their insulin prescription So there are major, major problems right now for a lot of people.
So that`s why I finally figured out after sitting through that impeachment hearing, and watching the bravery of some of my colleagues like Mitt Romney and Doug Jones, that what this President lacks, in addition to a respect for the law and her democracy, he also lacks empathy.
And that`s why I came up with ending my debate with the story of FDR. That when he died, they put his body in the train and the regular guys standing by the train tracks. And the reporter says to the guy, who`s sobbing, "Sir, did you know the President?" And he says, "No, I didn`t know the President, but the President knew me - he knew me."
And I am committed to restoring that sacred trust between the President and the people of this country, and you do that by basically looking at the people. And I`ve seen them in these crowds that we`ve seen now since the debate, growing and growing and growing. And every time I say this, I look at them and someone nods their head.
I say, you know, if you are struggling to pay for your long term care, with this President, by the way made it harder with this budget, if you`re struggling to pay for your long term care for your parents, and at the same time that child care for your kids, I know you and I will fight for you.
If you`re struggling to decide if you`re going to fill a prescription or fill your refrigerator with food, I know you and I will fight for you. And if you`re struggling to decide how you`re going to make that paycheck go to pay the rent or the mortgage, I know you and I will fight for you.
That`s what`s missing with this President. And people, whether they are Democrats, or independents, which come in spades here in the great State of New Hampshire, or moderate Republicans, they are showing up because they know that what unites our country is bigger than what divides us. That the heart of America is bigger than the heart of this guy in the White House.
O`DONNELL: A quick question on taxes. There are other candidates, including Mike Bloomberg, Pete Buttigieg, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, they all are advocating a bigger tax package than you`re advocating.
If you`re a President and some of their elements, some of their proposals got through to your desk, that Nancy Pelosi got them through the House of Representatives, they got through the Senate. Would you veto any of the tax proposals that you`ve heard from the other candidates that have made it to the President`s desk?
KLOBUCHAR: I know I`m open to looking at these proposals. I just want to make sure that we have a reality check here. And that the difference between a plan and a pipe dream, as you were just discussing on the show, is it something you can pay for and you can get done.
So I have enumerated many changes to the tax code, bringing the capital gains rate closer at the personal tax rates, still having some incentives for long term investment. That gives us $500 billion, Lawrence, to help people to pay for college.
Taking that estate tax exemption and putting it where it was under President Obama from 11 million to 3.5 million. That gives us the money to pay our teachers what they deserve and to up our investment in education.
I literally - I have hedge fund loophole - $18 billion. You`ve got the - so many - the oil giveaways $30 billion. You`ve got the Trump tax cuts that he`s just trying to extend into law, the corporate tax cut alone, if you just go up a few points $400 billion that we could spend on infrastructure for things like rail to Southern New Hampshire, things like rural broadband.
It`s insane that it`s easier to get cell phone call or to get high speed broadband in Iceland with all their volcanoes than it is in Franconia Notch, New Hampshire. But every crowd I say that to burst out clapping, because they know exactly what I`m talking about.
So I just think there`s some fundamental economic checks here that we can get done. But I am open to all kinds of changes to our tax code. I just want to make sure that the things I propose are paid for by sensible changes that we can actually make.
O`DONNELL: It`s been a long road to this night before the voting in New Hampshire. It`s less than an hour and a half before Dixville Notch--
KLOBUCHAR: Now, let`s say, I don`t know what`s going to happen--
O`DONNELL: Dixville Notch is voting in less than an hour and a half. I want to give you a final--
KLOBUCHAR: My husband wanted to go there today.
O`DONNELL: It`s not a bad idea. I want to give you a final moment to just make your closing argument to New Hampshire voters.
KLOBUCHAR: Sure. This is a state that believes in decency. And this is a state that believes that what unites us is bigger than what divides us. And so my pitch to New Hampshire is, if you`re tired of the extremes in our politics, and the noise and the nonsense, you have a home with me.
And if you believe it is time to not just eek by victory at four in the morning, but win big and bring with us the people that we need to build this big coalition of a fired up Democratic base, and independents and moderate Republicans, then vote for me.
I have a track record of winning in those hard rural districts and those suburban districts. I have a track record of getting things done. That`s why every newspaper - major newspaper in this state has endorsed me as well as "The New York Times."
But in the end, this is really about where your heart is. I don`t have the biggest bank account. I don`t have the most name ID. But what I`ve got is this, I`ve got a heart and I`m someone that`s resilient and I know you and I will fight for you.
O`DONNELL: Senator Klobuchar, thank you very much--
KLOBUCHAR: Thank you.
O`DONNELL: --for joining us on this final night of campaigning. You going to be up at dawn shaking hands--
KLOBUCHAR: I am going to be up at those polls shaking hands. I`ve eaten poitin (ph). I`ve gone to Dunkin` Donuts. I mean, there`s plenty of days and hours left here for me.
O`DONNELL: Thank you very much for having us.
KLOBUCHAR: All right. Thank you.
O`DONNELL: Really appreciate it. And when we come back, good news for all the Democratic candidates - the top tier candidates in one on one polling against Donald Trump.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-MA) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We have one job, come November and that is beat Donald Trump.
MAYOR PETE BUTTIGIEG (D-IN) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Right now, I think a lot of folks, more than anything else just want to know that we can win.
JOE BIDEN (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If Trump`s going to tell us over and over again that the economy is on the ballot this year, it sure is. But something else is on the ballot. character is on the ballot. the character of his country`s on the ballot.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O`DONNELL: The new Quinnipiac poll today shows all of the top tier Democratic candidates ahead of Donald Trump in one-on-one matchups.
Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg is ahead of Donald Trump by 9 at 51 to 42. Bernie Sanders leads Trump 51 to 43. Joe Biden leads Trump 50 to 43 Amy Klobuchar is ahead of Trump by 6 points at 49 to 43. Elizabeth Warren is ahead at 48 to 44. And Pete Buttigieg is ahead of Donald Trump at 47 to 43.
James Pindell, Joy Reid, John Heilemann are back with us. Joy those one on one polls are what the Democrats are hoping for. But let me go to a four year olds reference point here. Turns up four points is not enough.
Let`s take a look at Hillary Clinton. This is in June of 2016. Quinnipiac poll, Clinton 45, Trump 41. We can get that on the screen maybe. So that what she only had a three-point lead at the time.
JOY REID, MSNBC HOST, "AM JOY": Yes.
O`DONNELL: At that same time. Bernie Sanders, by the way, was 11 points ahead of Trump - 48 to 39. And so Hillary Clinton`s three points ahead of Trump, which is comparable to say Elizabeth Warren and Buttigieg, turned out to not be enough.
REID: Yes. I mean, and polls don`t matter. Right? What matters is turnout. It matters. And I think a lot of times, and I think, this is true of the Clinton campaign to some extent. People will rely on the data, and not on the old fashioned work of going to people`s homes, getting them out to the polls and getting them to vote.
Hillary Clinton underperformed with African-American voters. She only got 88 percent. There was weak turnout in places like Detroit, places like Milwaukee, place like Philly. Your job, as a candidate, is to get those people out of their homes and churches and enter the polls. It doesn`t matter what the polls are. I mean, it into the actual polls to vote, not what the polls are.
O`DONNELL: So let`s take a look at this Quinnipiac poll. It`s a national poll, shows Bernie Sanders in the lead at 25 percent; Joe Biden at 17; Mike Bloomberg, 15; Elizabeth Warren, 14; Pete Buttigieg, 10; Amy Klobuchar, 4. And then down from there.
JOHN HEILEMANN, MSNBC NATIONAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: how do we - what do numbers like that mean to us for candidates when they`re leaving New Hampshire?
HEILEMANN: They mean that the Mike Bloomberg is - has proven that you can spend $250 million on television and more on digital and buy yourself at least 15 percent in the national poll. He`s now in a statistical tie with Joe Biden for second at the national level. We know that national doesn`t matter. What matters is these state by state polls.
But it`s telling you that Mike Bloomberg is moving numbers. And in this poll, you know, we also see the more extraordinary thing in this poll, which is that Mike Bloomberg has the support of 22 percent of African- Americans in this poll, which puts in five points blow Joe Biden, who - his entire premise of his campaign at this point, that - which is hanging by a thread here in New Hampshire, is that he`s going to go to South Carolina, and have an African American firewall.
It`s always been my view and - that African-American - the African-American vote is not static. Like that they are - its movable, its changeable. African-Americans are incredibly sophisticated, and are viewing this election through the most sophisticated lens of any voting group, and they are watching what`s happening.
They`re watching what`s happening in Iowa, they`re watching what`s happening in New Hampshire. It`s not determinative of what their vote is going to be, but they`re watching it play out. They`re seeing these candidates perform, and they`re seeing a lot of ads.
They`re seeing ads about Tom Steyer in South Carolina. They`re seeing ads of Mike Bloomberg. And the fact that Joe Biden now has a challenger on the national level. And all of these moderate candidates, every one of them - and the ones in the progressive lane, all of them looking at Mike Bloomberg saying, that`s a guy who`s going to mess with a lot of people`s heads and a lot of vote when we get to Super Tuesday in the March states where you get to get to these very diverse states. If Mike Bloomberg is performing at that level with African-Americans, then it`s only going to go up, at least until we see him on stage. We`ll see what happens.
HEILEMANN: It`s a game changing thing if Mike Bloomberg gets a quarter of the African vote.
HEILEMANN: That`s all I`m saying.
O`DONNELL: Let me get Joy in here on this as we put that slide back up showing Bloomberg at 22 percent with the African-American vote. Biden at the top still at 27. Sanders at 19. And the next one down - was way down from there, it`s Elizabeth Warren at eight. And that`s, Joy, with Mike Bloomberg 15 percent overall in the poll nationally, but, clearly, a big piece of his support is coming from black voters.
REID: Yes. I mean - and I can tell you that I was in Nashville, Tennessee not too long ago. I was in Upstate New York talking with black voters and, and one of the consistent things I`m seeing is people saying, I`m considering Bloomberg. You know, I`ve talked to people who were Warren voters or black voters, black women, the most consistent voter in the Democratic Party are black woman. I`m meeting a lot of people who are considering Bloomberg.
I would challenge one thing that John said is that, the voters I`ve talked to are not paying any attention, with all due respect, to the (inaudible). They`re not paying attention necessarily to what white voters are doing here, unless white voters surprise them. The reason they paid attention to it a way is because white voters surprised them by choosing the black candidate.
O`DONNELL: In a positive way.
REID: In positive way.
HEILEMANN: Just because - I think they`re watching the candidates and their performance--
REID: Sure, they`re watching--
HEILEMANN: They`re watching the races play out--
REID: Exactly, exactly.
HEILEMANN: --and they are looking at the candidates.
HEILEMANN: --and learning things about the candidates. That`s all I have.
REID: But - right, but wining here--
HEILEMANN: That`s all I have.
REID: Yes, absolutely. But winning here doesn`t necessarily categorical, any of these guys, because these are white candidates. And so they`re not saying this is a surprise, right? It`s not surprising.
But one thing that I will say is that the challenge with Bloomberg long term is that this is Mike Bloomberg in the abstract. The idea that he`s got $100 billion is what people are saying to me, he could beat Trump with $100 billion.
I just got sent today this Aspen Institute video where he said you could Xerox all the copies of black and brown people and hand it to the cops, and that`s how we throw them up against the wall to stop and frisk, and that was in 2015. There`s been no opo on him yet. And so black voters know him in the abstract as the rich guy who can take Trump down. That`s why they`re considering him. Long-term there`s going to be a lot of questions he`s going to have to answer--
O`DONNELL: OK. We have to squeeze in a quick break here. We`ll be right back with more from our New Hampshire MSNBC Election Headquarters.
O`DONNELL: Dover is a small city of 31,000 people in Southern New Hampshire. In the past for Democratic presidential primaries in New Hampshire, Dover has voted for the winner of the New Hampshire primary.
And beyond that the amazing thing is, the order of finish for the four top candidates in Dover has also turned out to be the exact order of finish for the top four candidates statewide in the New Hampshire primary. So pay attention tomorrow night when Steve Kornacki is reporting the results from Dover, New Hampshire.
Our panel is back with us, "The Boston Globe`s" James Pindell; Joy Reid; John Heilemann. James, were are you going to be watching tomorrow night in New Hampshire.
JAMES PINDELL, THE BOSTON GLOBE POLITICAL REPORTER: I will be watching a lot with NBC. But I`ve been - well, we`re watching exactly - I`m watching Dover. I`m also watching the first results will probably coming from Manchester, which would be very critical, particularly to get a sense of Bernie Sanders is going to once again increase a broader coalition beyond his base. So Ward 1 in Manchester, a Northern part, you get a - it`s more affluent, but it`s also got a heavy mix here. Its establishment Democrats. If you can get some of them, that`s where it`s at.
Another place to watch is, he really ran up the score in Keene, which is where he finished his campaign tonight. Cheshire County where Keene is at, he got 70 percent of the vote against Hillary Clinton.
And then one other place, which is just kind of really interesting, though, on this Pete Buttigieg versus Sanders and Elizabeth Warren is the Upper Valley, which is where we noticed Dartmouth College, Lebanon, Hanover, that area. It is right on the Vermont border. A lot of people who work at Dartmouth live in Vermont, for example.
It`s also very highly educated, which is where exactly Warren and Buttigieg have been directly competing, and in some campaigns are been closing out their campaign in there as well. So those are sort of the areas I`d be watching.
O`DONNELL: Joy four years ago, Bernie Sanders won 60 percent of the vote in New Hampshire. Tomorrow night, he`s going to be lucky if it gets half of that, kind of the untold story of the Senator`s candidacy is that he has lost half of his support in New Hampshire. He`s lost half of his support in polls nationwide. He had 49 percent nationwide last time when he ran against Hillary Clinton, and he has about half that now.
REID: Yes, the problem for Sanders is that he has not shown proof of concept that he can create a revolution that grows this enormous base of young people. It didn`t happen in Iowa. If he doesn`t do it in New Hampshire and grow his base than he`s not proven that he can bring a revolutionary wave of young people to the polls, that`s going to be a problem.
O`DONNELL: What are you looking forward tomorrow night, John?
HEILEMANN: I`m super interested in seeing what happens with the - that 3, 4, 5 down in that--
O`DONNELL: The Warren, Biden and Klobuchar--
HEILEMANN: And Klobuchar--
O`DONNELL: That`s the story.
HEILEMANN: And has, you know, Joe Biden, the trajectory downward has been severe. Amy Klobuchar seems to feels like, looks like there`s data, there`s the fingertip feel seems to be on the way up. Is it possible that Amy Klobuchar could finish in third and Joe Biden could finish in fifth, that would be an earthquake in the moderate lane if that would happen.
It seems like we`re out of track on the base of everything we know that for Sanders to win, Pete Buttigieg be the second, but the rest of that is right - I could imagine any one of those orders. And if the Biden campaign somehow comes in third, they will be - they will feel like Lazarus here at this point. So I`m watching it real carefully, because that`s a dogfight.
O`DONNELL: We kind of know what`s going to happen at the top level of this. Its--
HEILEMANN: If the data is accurate. We know.
O`DONNELL: Yes. And so James the question is going to be who`s the survivor in the middle?
PINDELL: Yes. And overlooked on this is Pete Buttigieg, and maybe even Bernie Sanders. I will get the headline. I`ll get a speech if he does win. Buttigieg is almost - OK, he`s sort of there. He`s like wallpaper at that point. And this - who is third place is going to be maybe possibly as big of a story as we`re going to have compared to first place, and that one, I don`t know when we`re going to call that one.
O`DONNELL: Yes. We`ll see. Joy Reid, John Heilemann --
PINDELL: It won`t take a week unlike Iowa, I will tell you that.
O`DONNELL: -- James Pindell, thank you all very much for joining us on this important night. At midnight, voters in New Hampshire will begin casting the very first votes in tomorrow`s New Hampshire primary. Brian Williams will bring you live coverage of those midnight votes. "11TH HOUR WITH BRIAN WILLIAMS" starts now.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. END