Summary
The DNI confirms that it`s now looking into the potential risks to national security from Mar-a-Lago documents. Senator Lindsey Graham says that if Donald Trump is indicted, Republicans will riot in the streets. What is the midterm election outlook? How should families navigate the sometimes confusing guidance about COVID and other health threats as kids return to school?
Transcript
ARI MELBER, MSNBC HOST: And, remember, you can always find me by going to AriMelber.com on social media. I have told you guys that. It`s the best way to connect with me, AriMelber.com or @AriMelber. And I sometimes write back.
Thanks for joining us on "THE BEAT".
THE REIDOUT WITH JOY REID starts now.
JOY REID, MSNBC HOST: Tonight on THE REIDOUT:
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. MIKE TURNER (R-OH): So this sounds more like a bookkeeping issue than it is of a national security threat, which means it doesn`t rise to the level of justifying raiding the former president`s home.
REP. ADAM KINZINGER (R-IL): I mean, this seems big. And when you when you look at some of the president`s biggest kind of cheerleaders, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Jim Jordan, have gotten kind of silent, that tells you all you need to know too.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
REID: As the Justice Department finishes its initial review of the classified documents Trump purloined, the DNI confirms that it`s now looking into the potential risks to our national security.
Also tonight, Lindsey Graham and the politics of violence. He says, if Trump is indicted, Republicans will riot in the streets. What a contrast to pivotal moments in history when nonviolence prevailed.
Plus: the midterms and why, after Roe, no one with any sense is still talking about a red wave.
And, as kids head back to school, how to navigate the sometimes confusing guidance out there about COVID and other health threats.
But we begin THE REIDOUT tonight three weeks to the day since Donald Trump announced that the FBI had searched his Mar-a-Lago home to retrieve classified documents he took with him when he left the White House. During that time, the twice-impeached former president has continued to try to play the victim, claiming he`s under attack by the mean old Biden administration in some sort of political vendetta.
But, in that same time span, we have learned not only the multiple attempts made by both the National Archives and the DOJ to retrieve all of these documents, but how highly classified some of them were and what they contained.
According to Friday`s redacted copy of the affidavit, the initial trove of material collected in January included 184 unique documents with classification markings, some marked as top secret. We also learned that some of the documents had markings indicating they could include some of the government`s most highly guarded secrets, such as human intelligence sources.
That has the director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, to order a damage assessment to determine the risks to national security. And we still don`t know what Trump was doing with the documents and who had access to them. For all of his flailing around on his pretend Twitter thing, not once has he explained why those documents were being kept at his not-all-secure golf resort, like the slippers that you would nick from a nice hotel.
All of this while the former president`s legal team struggles to find a defense argument they can stick to for more than a few days. Now, of course, it must be hard when they`re dealing -- when they`re being directed by Trump himself and when, according to "The New York Times," people familiar with his thinking say Trump sees Attorney General Merrick Garland not as the federal government`s chief law enforcement officer, but merely as a political foe and someone with whom he can haggle about how much anger exists over the situation.
Meanwhile, later this week, U.S. district judge -- a U.S. district judge will hold a hearing over Trump`s demand for a special master to review the materials seized by the FBI to seek out any privileged material.
Judge Aileen Cannon, who was appointed by Trump in 2020, issued a two-page order this weekend indicating that she is ready to grant his request. The DOJ responded today, confirming that they will comply, but here`s the thing. They have already completed their review of the materials and they`re already working on addressing any potential privilege disputes.
And let`s not forget that, in the FBI`s search of Mar-a-Lago, they seized even more classified documents, including some that were meant to be read only in special secure government facilities.
Joining me now is Naveed Jamali, editor at large at "Newsweek" and a former FBI double agent, and Glenn Kirschner, former federal prosecutor and an MSNBC legal analyst.
And, Naveed, my friend, I did want to talk to you today, because you are in the unique position of having been a double agent, have been someone who relied on the protections afforded to you by the secrecy of what you were doing. And I am very interested to hear what you make of the fact that Donald Trump had all of this classified material that is all this -- including classified material, I should say, at his house, including human intelligence materials.
NAVEED JAMALI, EDITOR AT LARGE, "NEWSWEEK": You know, Joy, maybe I was out that day at spy school, but I`m pretty sure they never told me, hey, Naveed, we`re going to protect your identity, but, if it does get out, don`t worry. We will bring the Espionage Act to bear.
Look, the point about secret intelligence is that it remains secret. Everything that`s happening now, from a master to, hell, even the FBI agents that are pulling those documents out of Mar-a-Lago, that puts the intelligence contained within them at risk.
[19:05:04]
There`s a social contract that I had with those FBI agents. I went into places that I didn`t know that were safe, and they agreed to protect my identity. Once I gave that information, I had no idea what was going to happen with it.
I don`t know who`s going to see it. I don`t know what they`re going to do with it. But I had a guarantee from them that my name and my identity would be kept safe, because, in espionage, best-case scenario is, you`re compromised. The worst-case scenario is pretty darn bad. And there`s a lot of worst-case scenarios.
It just frustrates me. I mean, everything with Trump is a 12. It`s hard to feel that, like, when everything`s a 12, nothing`s a 12. But this, to me, is personal. I mean, this is something that puts people`s lives at risk.
And just, in a best-case scenario, Trump was incompetent. But when we have seen Trump, it`s rarely the best-case scenario.
REID: Yes.
And just to be clear -- and this is four my lovely, wonderful director -- this -- there have actually been really catastrophic situations for our spies. Back in 2021, "The New York Times" reported that troubling numbers of informants recruited from other countries to spy for the United States have been captured or killed in recent years.
Adversarial intelligence services in countries such as Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan have been hunting down the CIA sources, and, in some cases, turning them into double agents.
So, again, the risks are real, Naveed. This isn`t theoretical.
JAMALI: That`s absolutely right.
Look, China, North Korea, Iran, Russia, every day, they`re looking for our spies. There are people here today that are spying for the benefit of the United States of America. And we owe them a minimum duty of protecting their identity.
Look, I don`t know whether the result of those deaths was because of something Trump did or didn`t do. It`s -- this is a problem. And the point is that you have to do everything in your power to protect that. And the fact that Trump sees this information potentially as something that is beneficial to him, as a transaction, and not this idea of like higher service or selflessness or just duty to people that are, frankly, risking their lives and their families` lives for our country, it`s just par for course when it comes to Trump.
REID: And, Glenn, let me go to you on this, because Donald Trump has tried to make it seem like he`s being treated worse than anyone would be treated under the same circumstances.
But I think it`s fairly obvious that he`s been treated much, much better. He was able to hold on to this information that the government desperately wanted back for nearly two years, for 18 months. And you pointed out earlier -- we do -- I follow you on this on the Twitters.
You pointed out that there`s a woman named Asia Janay Lavarello who went to jail. And what she went to prison for was taking classified documents with secret classification to her hotel room and failing to use a secure diplomatic pouch. Went to prison. Trump is golfing. Your thoughts?
GLENN KIRSCHNER, MSNBC LEGAL ANALYST: Yes.
And, Joy, the point is that we should hold folks accountable when they violate the trust placed in them, particularly as government employees. But the point is, you see when somebody like Ms. Lavarello engages in a breach of security that is not one millionth as dangerous to the United States as what Donald Trump did, those documents he stole from the federal government and unlawfully concealed at Mar-a-Lago.
And let`s be clear. We have no idea what he did with them, how he might have exploited them, how he may have compromised our national security. But there`s no dispute that what he did is a million times worse than what Ms. Lavarello did. And she promptly landed in prison for that one secret document that she mishandled.
And what did our federal government, our executive branch, our Department of Justice do when they learned that Donald Trump had this treasure trove of classified information? They negotiated with him endlessly. They catered to him, begged, pleaded, and implored, please give us the documents back.
That is not the way our federal government should handle breaches of our national security.
REID: You know, I mean, I, if you ask -- me we have had Reality Winner`s mom on this show. I highly doubt that there was begging and pleading and asking. She was thrown in prison. And she was trying to help the United States by exposing contacts with Russia and the Trump campaign.
David Petraeus, who served this country admirably, Donald Trump -- he didn`t even cry bone spurs. He signed up, right, and served the country. He still got prosecuted for exposing classified data.
Glenn, I can`t imagine and can you imagine anyone else other than Donald Trump, maybe because he`s a former president or maybe because he`s just the luckiest SOB on earth, they could be free from jail and not be in manacles and shackles 18 months after taking that much classified data?
KIRSCHNER: No.
And, at some point, it becomes deeply unjust for, for example, the foot soldiers of Donald Trump`s insurrection that he told to attack the Capitol, stop the certification of Joe Biden`s win, fight like hell or you won`t have a country anymore, those folks are being indicted, they`re being convicted, and they`re being imprisoned.
[19:10:13]
And yet Donald Trump, who orchestrated the attack, has a tee time tomorrow morning. And Ms. Lavarello sits in prison. That is a deep injustice that needs to be remedied with charges for Donald Trump and his criminal associates.
REID: Let me play Roy Blunt, because the other thing is the defense of him, the relentless defense by the MAGA Republicans, elected Republicans, who I don`t think are serving their constituents very well.
This is Senator Roy Blunt. He was on with George Stephanopoulos dodging and weaving like he was on a soccer field as Stephanopoulos was asking him pretty -- some pretty straightforward, simple questions.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS, ABC NEWS: Was he right to take these documents to Mar-a-Lago?
SEN. ROY BLUNT (R-MO): Well, I think we need to know more about the documents.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Was it right for the president to take these government documents, which he`s supposed to turn over to the National Archives, down to Mar-a-Lago?
BLUNT: It was -- you should be very careful with classified documents. Everybody needs to be more careful.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Do you believe is right for the president take those documents to Mar-a-Lago?
BLUNT: I understand he turned over a lot of documents. He should have turned over all of them. I imagine he knows that very well now as well.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, he hasn`t said that. He said he did nothing wrong.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
REID: Naveed, you have been involved in briefing members of Congress.
What do you make of a member of Congress who also takes the oath to defend this country against all enemies foreign and domestic not being able to simply state that it is wrong, if not illegal, and actually illegal to steal essentially our national secrets and put them in your bedroom?
JAMALI: It -- look, it`s indefensible.
The reality Joy, is that the information, that whatever that information contained, it`s already been compromised. It`s been compromised by the fact that people who weren`t cleared, including the FBI agents, who, by the way, were doing their job, when they go in and retrieve those documents and have to archive it and have to index it.
Right there, you`re putting people that aren`t -- don`t have access, the need-to-know stuff, to that information. That is a compromise. So, the fact that Donald Trump -- we can talk about the legal parsing of this at all, but let`s talk about the morality of it.
Like, you have a duty to protect this country`s secrets, full stop. joy, look, when I was working operations, there was a point when I was sitting down with my Russian case officer, and he asked me for a document. That document hadn`t been cleared. I had to make a split-second decision to give him that document or not to give that document, or the operation would have been compromised.
I gave him the document. You know what the result was? There was a point where the FBI wanted to arrest me because I`d given an uncleared document. I was working for the FBI in a tightly controlled counterintelligence operation. You don`t take classified information.
If you have access to classified information, you have a duty to protect it. I mean, this is -- there is no excuse. I mean, at the best, at least, they should come out and say he was incompetent. Maybe that has a little bit of a ring of truth to it, but anything else? Come on. It`s not believable.
REID: And he was president of the United States.
JAMALI: Yes.
REID: He was surrounded by people who could have told him what was legal and what was not.
JAMALI: Of course.
REID: He had his own White House counsel. He apparently didn`t listen to anyone.
Last question to you on this, Glenn, because there is an element of Donald Trump`s truthiness, his ability to filter himself that actually sometimes is the best evidence against him.
There`s a "New York Times" piece that talks about the obstruction threat against him right now. A Georgetown University law professor, her name is Julie O`Sullivan. And she said that, essentially, the emerging timeline of the government`s repeatedly stymied attempts to retrieve the documents, which you talked about, plus the claims that Trump says he did nothing wrong because he declassified the documents in his possession, that is a problem for him.
This is what she says: "He is making a mistake in believing that it matters whether it`s top secret or not. He is essentially conceding that he knew he had them. If so," she added, "then not giving them back in and of itself was obstructing the return of these documents."
Your thoughts.
KIRSCHNER: That`s why the obstruction count that was cited as one of the three federal crimes that was being investigated by the FBI, one of the three federal crimes that the judge granted the search warrant on, finding those crimes had been committed, there was probable cause to believe they were committed, and there was probable cause to believe they would find evidence of those crimes on the property at Mar-a-Lago, one of them was obstruction of justice.
Now, mind you, none of those three crimes required classification of the documents. So, that is -- that`s nothing but a Donald Trump talking point to try to fool the gullible. And the fact that he retained these documents after they were demanded, after DOJ officials and FBI agents went down there and begged him to return them, after they were subpoenaed -- he violated a subpoena and retained those documents unlawfully.
I have to tell you, that is a relatively easy obstruction of justice charge to bring against Donald Trump. It`s a 20-year federal felony. And we are all -- and how many times have we talked about this, Joy? We are all waiting for the Department of Justice to move out and to begin to hold Donald Trump accountable.
[19:15:07]
REID: Just treat him like you would treat any other American, because guess what? When you`re not president, you`re just a regular person and you`re subject to all the same laws as we are.
Naveed Jamali, Glenn Kirschner, thank you both.
Up next on THE REIDOUT: Lindsey Graham pours gasoline on the MAGA fire, warning that Republicans will resort to violence if Trump is held accountable, like any other American would be.
THE REIDOUT continues after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:20:04]
REID: Sunday marked the anniversary of two pivotal milestones in the civil rights movement, the 1955 lynching of 14-year-old Emmett Till, the Chicago boy who was abducted, tortured and murdered after being accused of whistling at a white woman while visiting family in Mississippi, and the March on Washington in 1963, eight years later, organized to coincide with the day that Till was murdered, where Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. delivered his iconic "I Have a Dream" speech.
The lynching of Emmett Till was horrific evidence of the racist violence routinely waged against black Americans in the South with impunity.
And I should warn you, the following video is graphic. Till`s mother, Mamie, insisted on an open casket for her son`s funeral, so the world couldn`t turn away from the image of his mutilated and broken body, a funeral that was attended by more than 50,000 people at a church on Chicago`s South Side.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROSE JOURDAIN, JOURNALIST: They said that about one in every five had to be assisted out of the building. They would just go into a faint.
I think black people`s reaction was so visceral. Everybody knew we were under attack. And that attack was symbolized by the attack on a 14-year-old boy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
REID: But the righteous anger over the murder of this child did not lead to violence. Far from it.
Now, despite concerns within the Kennedy White House in 1963, the March for Jobs and Freedom brought more than a quarter-million people to Washington also without incident.
In fact, in his speech, Dr. King made an explicit call to nonviolence, to conduct the struggle with dignity and discipline.
And I would just like you to contrast that with South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham`s comments last night in defense of the twice-impeached former president`s mishandling of classified government documents.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): If there`s a prosecution of Donald Trump for mishandling classified information, after the Clinton debacle, which you presided over and did a hell of a good job, there will be riots in the streets.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
REID: Oh, the entitlement.
If right-wing Republicans don`t get what they want, there will be riots. Yes, we have seen that before. Kind of like the mob laying siege to our Capitol when Trump supporters didn`t get what they wanted in the last election.
Joining me now is NBC News, presidential historian Michael Beschloss.
And it`s always great to see you, Michael.
It is telling to me that Lindsey Graham, a man of the South, seemed to stand athwart history, or maybe he just doesn`t know his history very well, and threatened violence if Donald Trump -- if the system of justice dares to hold Donald Trump to account.
By the way, he has no idea if Trump`s going to actually get prosecuted. He seems to be projecting.
Your thoughts?
MICHAEL BESCHLOSS, NBC NEWS PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: Well, he`s projecting and he`s making a threat.
And threats were made in the South by white -- pro-white supremacist politicians, which I wouldn`t have called Lindsey Graham five years ago, but I sure would tonight. He`s saying, if Donald Trump is prosecuted or you go after him, there`s going to be violence on the streets.
That is a threat. And it`s a threat from someone who is, as of tonight, standing right at the side of Donald Trump, his little buddy, and was someone -- who is someone who we know, on the 6th of January, and we`re still learning more, last year actually did unleash violence and an effort to hold on to his job and stage a coup d`etat.
So this is not an idle threat. It used to be, Joy, that conservatives in this country were for the maintenance of institutions of democracy. They wanted the rule of law. They wanted public safety and peace. None of those things were being shown by Lindsey Graham.
This is something like a race-baiter out of the 1920s, saying, if you do such and such, there`s going to be violence in the streets. I just can`t believe that he said that.
REID: And the thing is, you make an excellent point about it not being an idle threat. I mean, Donald Trump amplified, what Lindsey Graham said on his pretend Twitter that he created with Devin Nunes.
BESCHLOSS: Sure.
REID: And he did it he -- and he`s done that before. It`s very much like him saying, hey, I lost the election, you should show up on January 6. It`s going to be wild.
BESCHLOSS: Going to be wild.
REID: Donald Trump telegraphed right that he was going to hurl a violent mob at the United States Capitol, even going back to December, in -- December 19, he said, hey, this is what`s going to happen. And now he`s doing it again.
BESCHLOSS: And he had -- and Trump reputedly also sent a message in some way to Merrick Garland, the attorney general, saying that I think things are going to blow up if you go after me, you and the Justice Department, and then adding -- he always covers himself -- what can I do to bring the heat down, which is sort of like a mafia capo saying, nice little salmon store you have got their. Hate to see anything happen to it.
[19:25:04]
REID: You know, and the thing is, the history of the United States is replete with violence that results in a group of people...
BESCHLOSS: Exactly.
REID: ... who felt entitled to get their way not getting their way.
And there`s a lot of history of violence in the wake of elections, particularly after Reconstruction, and to end Reconstruction. We have a map that will just show you some of them. This isn`t even all of them, the lynchings, the burnings of towns, the burnings of places like Black Wall Street in Oklahoma. You just could go on and on and on.
And a lot of these attacks, these violent attacks, were riots, race riots, that were the result of the group that was in power, at the time -- at this time, white Democrats, to be blunt...
BESCHLOSS: Right.
REID: ... believing that they were entitled to hold onto power and wanting to take down the black and tan Republicans.
BESCHLOSS: Absolutely.
What was Tulsa, except for black people had become amazingly and impressively successful in business and finance and a racist system,and the locals couldn`t stand it, and they basically burned down that area. And that is something, that is the kind of thing -- look at the number of those things that you just showed us on that map.
That was brilliant, Joy. How many of those things have been taught in schools, even before the recent effort to be repressive, and say you cannot teach about civil rights in the schools or you have to be limited in what you say about the Holocaust?
We`re going into a time where a lot of school boards and a lot of states are going to try -- are in the process of trying to censor history. And given what I do -- and I know how much you love history -- the reason we love history is not only because they`re interesting tales of the past, but the whole idea of the United States is that, in general, maybe one step backward, but two steps forward.
And one of the ways that we take the two steps forward is to look at history, look where our past leaders and citizens failed, and where they succeeded.
REID: Absolutely.
BESCHLOSS: If we`re robbed of that history, we`re -- of that history, we`re defeating exactly what the founders wanted us to do.
REID: Absolutely.
And on that map, just to highlight a couple of them, in 1868, a KKK-style group massacred hundreds in response to voter registration. That`s in Louisiana. St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana. White vigilantes murdered dozens trying to terrorize emancipated voters in Colfax, Louisiana.
Whites contesting the 1872 elections set fire to a courthouse protected by black militiamen. You could just go on and on and on.
The other thing about history that I -- that I think is fascinating that we should always remember is that history is the story of change. The same party that ran the American South during the worst periods in our history after Reconstruction is the same party that, 100 years later, a century later, is the party of the first black president.
So these parties change.
BESCHLOSS: They do.
REID: And I think, for Republicans, the message is that the Trumpist version of their party is not the final version, does not have to be the final version of their party, because, for Democrats, the racist Southern version was not the final version either.
BESCHLOSS: Absolutely.
The Democrats were such a racist, white supremacist party that even Franklin Roosevelt, who had some of the largest congressional majorities, as you well know, in American history in the 1930s, was terrified to even propose an anti-lynching bill, even propose it, because he was terrified of those Southern committee chairmen, and he knew that he needed Southern votes to win these elections.
Just to show everyone that humanity, at least in some ways, does come forward, what did Joe Biden propose last spring?
REID: Yes.
BESCHLOSS: An anti-lynching bill called the Emmett Till bill.
REID: That`s right.
BESCHLOSS: It brings tears to our eyes to even think about this, which says that, if you lynch someone, it`s a federal crime. It`s a hate crime.
REID: Yes.
BESCHLOSS: It seems pretty small, but, for decades, presidents could not get that through Congress.
REID: Absolutely.
A perfect ending to the story. And Ahmaud Arbery lays in a grave, having been...
BESCHLOSS: Exactly.
REID: ... a modern victim of lynching. History is a circle.
BESCHLOSS: It sure is.
REID: But it`s a circle that can also turn in a beautiful way, if we work at it.
BESCHLOSS: We hope.
REID: We hope.
Michael Beschloss, it`s always a pleasure. Thank you very much, my friend.
BESCHLOSS: Same. Thank you.
REID: Thank you.
All right, still ahead: Republicans struggle to navigate the new post-Roe election landscape with yet another candidate scrubbing their anti-abortion plans from their campaign Web sites.
We`re back after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:34:08]
REID: It`s been two months since the right-wing Christian nationalist Supreme Court majority overturned Roe.
And, since then, an interesting trend has developed within the Republican Party. Candidates across the country are trying to hide their positions on reproductive rights.
Last week, NBC News reported that Blake Masters, the Republican candidate for Senate in Arizona, had scrubbed his Web site of his positions, which had included opposition to legal birth control. J.D. Vance, his Ohio counterpart, has said that he would like abortion to be illegal nationally.
But he`s not telling NBC News that he doesn`t support a national abortion ban right now. In Michigan, "The Detroit News" reports that Tom Barrett, the Republican challenging Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin, has scrubbed the values section on his Web site, which once touted his anti-choice position.
A viral video of a Republican state legislator from South Carolina shows just how politically and more morally perilous the abortion issue is for Republicans.
[19:35:03]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
STATE REP. NEAL COLLINS (R-SC): The attorneys told the doctors that, because of the fetal heartbeat bill, because that 15-week old had a heartbeat, the doctors could not extract. There`s a 50 percent chance, greater than 50 percent chance that she`s going to lose her uterus.
There`s a 10 percent chance that she will develop sepsis and herself die. That weighs on me. I voted for that bill. These are affecting people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
REID: Since the court ended a woman`s right to reproductive health care, Kansas voters resoundingly rejected a forced birth constitutional amendment, and Democrats have overperformed in every special election.
There`s been a surge in voter registrations by women, and the generic congressional ballot has shifted in the Republicans` (sic) favor. None of this even takes into account the omnipresence of the former president, which leaves us all wondering what the midterm elections are actually going to look like.
This weekend, veteran journalist Dan Balz wrote that the midterms are shifting from a referendum on the current president into a real choice between Democrats and Republicans. And he adds this: "No one can predict whether turnout this fall will even come close to what happened in 2018. But there are signs all around that this will be another post-Donald Trump election and not necessarily one that conforms to what the norm was previously."
Joining me now, Rachel Bitecofer, political scientist and strategist and host of The Cycle on Substack, and Cornell Belcher, Democratic pollster and MSNBC political analyst.
Ladies first. I`m going to start with you, Rachel.
Just looking at the anecdotal evidence, you have got the Senate Campaign Committee for the Republicans canceling $10 million worth of spending for Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona. You have got J.D. Vance, who says women should stay in abusive relationships, begging for money. You have got Democrats just hammering Republicans over other stuff, not even Roe, about Blake Masters wanted to privatize Social Security, Ron Johnson talking about we should make -- have to reintroduce Social Security every five years.
You can go on and on and on, plus the number of women who are just signing up to vote all over the country.
Anecdotally, it definitely looks like Democrats are surging toward the midterms. Your thoughts?
RACHEL BITECOFER, POLITICAL SCIENTIST: I mean, what I would say, are you not entertained, right?
I mean, this is exactly the fruit and the product of what many people have been working towards, getting Democrats to frame this election as a referendum on the Republican Party and disqualify change, thus disrupting the midterm effect.
But as your show opening just pointed out, for all the work that`s done on the messaging and strategic front, at the end of the day, the catalyst event of having abortion become illegal in so many places, and thrusting women into a health crisis is -- it`s such a negative partisanship, like, jolt to the electorate on our side that it has absolutely allowed Democrats a position to not only hold the Senate, but maybe pick up a couple of seats, with all these weak candidates that they have also gifted everybody with
But now it`s putting the House into play. I mean, what we really want to watch now from here is that generic ballot aggregate. It`s moved from basically three points initially favored Republicans by two-and-a-half- points. And now it`s Democrats at three. And if that keeps moving north and the electorate is -- the angst of the electorate is heightened by strategy, then I really do think we`re looking at a situation where we could put that House back into contention.
REID: And, Cornell, you know me, so you know I love polls. I`m a polling geek. But I have to say, I have been incredibly skeptical of the pundit take over the last year that, because history says X, that the party out, the out-party -- I mean, the party in the White -- that holds the White House loses the midterms, blah, blah, blah.
I happen to be a person that believes that outside events change it, change all of that calculus. It happened in `04 when Republicans put those anti- gay marriage bills all over in 11 states, and that helped George W. Bush get reelected, despite having lied about a lot of stuff about Iraq.
And it happened in 2018 with Brett Kavanaugh. I believe that Roe is that kind of a cataclysmic event that makes the polls very difficult to listen to. Your thoughts.
CORNELL BELCHER, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, a couple things.
One is that the polling is actually picking up this trend line that you have been -- that you have been talking about. If you look at the generic horse race, the way it has moved, look, six or seven months back, Joy, I would argue that -- because I`m old and I remember 2010 -- I was front seat in 2010.
I would say that all this looks like 2010 all over again, and Katy bar the door. It doesn`t look like 2010 again. Look, if you look at -- let`s go on NBC`s polling, because I -- because I -- let`s go inside NBC`s polling, out polling NBC. If you look at where they had the persuadables at in 2010, the Republicans had a 13-point advantage among that persuadable cohort in 2010. Democrats now have an advantage among that persuadable cohort now.
[19:40:00]
So this Republican wave is not going. It`s not coming to fruition. Part of that is, though, because this has become a referendum on something other than Joe Biden and Democrats. And you will see that, when that dynamic changes -- look, we saw that dynamic change with George Bush, and when George Bush, as opposed -- and the economy was tanking at the George Bush midterm too. A lot of us forget that.
But George Bush and Republicans made that election about security. And they changed the fundamental dynamic of this. And there`s not typically one silver bullet variable. But the overreach on taking away a woman`s right to decide what happens to her body is a historical overreach, that certainly is having change, a dynamic shifter.
You can see it in the registration numbers with women. And the other thing, Joy, really quickly is that, look, when you look at the enthusiasm and the new registration among younger voters and women voters, all of these likely vote -- all these likely voter models for midterms, Joy, they`re wrong.
And I got to tell you right now, we`re probably looking at a turnout this coming midterm that`s better than what we had in 2018. And 2018 was a historic midterm turnout.
So, all bets are off on what`s going to happen, because, quite frankly, our typical likely midterm voter models are not going to match up with what`s going to happen with young people, and particularly women, and even voters of color, where, if you look back at 2010, which I did, and look at African-American voters right now, they are more -- more likely to be interested in this election and more likely to say they`re going to turn out and vote in this election than they were in 2010.
So this is not going to be a typical midterm election.
REID: Absolutely.
And then I`m going to give you the last word on this, Rachel, because there`s the negative impact of Roe. Then there`s also the positive impact of Biden doing some fundamental things that young voters like, which is things like that $10,000 in help for student loans.
BITECOFER: Yes, I mean, I`m liking Biden`s accomplishment. The secret deal with Schumer, with Manchin, and they busted it out and just kind of hits the GOP in the gut completely unawares.
And from the error, I mean, it`s just Republicans have made some unforced errors, the grandstanding on the vet bill, for example, that have really done a lot to make Joe Biden look not only effective, but incredibly effective, right?
REID: Yes.
BITECOFER: And I like that -- I think it is important for public perception, but more so it`s about Beltway perception.
Does party feel like Biden is doing well? Do the strategists, the candidates, the consultants...
REID: Yes.
BITECOFER: ... the activist base and the chattering class?
Because, as long as they`re talking happy, I`m happy.
REID: Yes.
The only word I would disagree with in your -- in what you just said there is some. Some unforced errors? It`s like every day is an unforced error, just all day, every day. And I don`t understand what they`re thinking.
Rachel Bitecofer...
(CROSSTALK)
BITECOFER: ... Frankenstein base and set it loose, right, on America.
REID: Well...
BITECOFER: It`s a thing that`s out of control, and now we have to kill it.
REID: All I got to say is, prepare for the red wheeze.
Rachel Bitecofer, Cornell Belcher, thank you both very much.
Coming up: Students are headed back to school, as parents grapple with the triple threat of COVID, monkeypox, and now, yes, that`s right. Polio.
Dr. Vin Gupta joins us next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:48:04]
REID: Some big news on the COVID front.
A new report from Politico says the FDA is expected to authorize a pair of booster shots targeting the contagious Omicron variant as soon as Wednesday, setting the stage for the rollout of the updated vaccine to begin shortly after Labor Day.
And it couldn`t come at a more crucial time, as students and teachers start to head back to school with not one, not two, but three different public health emergencies to worry about. There`s COVID, still very much a global pandemic, despite most school districts lifting their mask mandates, and the CDC no longer requiring students to quarantine after being exposed to the virus.
Add onto that monkeypox, a growing concern, especially on college campuses, even as infection rates appear to be slowing down in some major cities like New York, Chicago and San Francisco. And for the first time since 1994, polio is making a comeback in some parts of the country. This weekend, another county in New York detected the virus in wastewater samples from July and August.
Joining me now to sort all of this out, Dr. Vin Gupta, a critical care pulmonologist and MSNBC medical contributor.
I have missed talking with you, Dr. Gupta.
Let`s go through these kind of rapid fire. Let`s start with COVID. I think a lot of parents especially are confused, do we get our kids vaccinated under 5? Vaccination rates are super low among kids right now. What should parents be doing heading -- sending their kids back to school?
DR. VIN GUPTA, NBC NEWS MEDICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Joy, good evening. It`s always great to see you.
Parents should get their children vaccinated. These vaccines are incredibly safe, very effective at preventing hospitalizations in a pediatric population. We know that, Joy, at the worst of Omicron, children -- children are ending up in -- children in hospitals at six times the rate vs. a typical cold and flu season.
So, this is no -- this is no small thing, so parents should absolutely get their children vaccinated. What I would say is wait for that fourth shot, though. And you can -- if you`re wanting to time maybe shots -- I know, sometimes, you just want to get that vaccine appointment over with if you have young kiddos. You can get the COVID and flu shot together, Joy. So that`s really key.
[19:50:05]
I`d also say that we need to set realistic expectations as a country for vaccine intake rates. In a given flu year, Joy, less than 50 percent of adult Americans actually get a flu shot. So that`s why congressional funding for testing and treatment, especially for adults that are high- risk, is so critical.
And the fact that it`s being held up is so dangerous, because this is -- we`re going to rely on therapies and easy access to them to protect our hospitals. If we don`t have it, then we`re talking about a really big deal, especially for those that are uninsured.
REID: And have we just gotten too lax? Because, I mean, there`s monkeypox out here now.
But, last time -- several times I have traveled on flights, I have been one of the very few people on with a mask. People seem to have whipped off the mask, gone back outside -- back into indoor restaurants as if there`s no danger. Are we getting to lax about these threats?
GUPTA: Oh, absolutely.
And it`s being reflected in policy here. The fact that Congress is holding up this money is a big deal. And it`s going to cause there to be an avoidable winter surge here.
I will also say, Joy, this is a time here where employers need to step up here. For those that are lucky enough to have a job, let`s remember here most of -- over 50 percent of Americans get their health benefits through their employer. Employee benefit programs need to step up now that these tests and treatment -- tests and treatments will not be available for free through the government.
They need to provide these tests and treatments for free for their employees. That will at least be partly a solution here. Of course, the uninsured here are going to suffer.
REID: Yes.
GUPTA: For monkeypox, just to be key here, education is going to be key.
A hand, foot and mouth disease presents in many symptoms with a similar type of rash in kiddos. It can mimic monkeypox. For parents out there worried about all these threats, have a conversation with a pediatrician if your child develops a rash. Very likely, it may not be monkeypox. Could be hand, foot and mouth disease.
REID: We have to talk about polio.
How in the Sam Hill is polio back? I thought that polio was eradicated on the Earth. How is it back?
GUPTA: You know, it`s, unfortunately, because there is still a portion of individuals who, despite polio vaccine safety, the inactivated version of the polio vaccine, incredibly safe, very effective at preventing infection, much less severe illness, like paralysis, some people aren`t getting vaccinated.
And so that`s one reason why it`s back. The oral polio virus -- vaccine, the oral polio vaccine, Joy, used in some parts of the world, actually, that can cause some folks -- unfortunately, it`s not as effective. It can potentially in somebody that is immunocompromised caused them to get infected as well.
The version of the vaccine we have in the United States does not do that, very effective at preventing infection, doesn`t cause it. But that`s the reason why it`s back.
Really important for adults out there -- I get this question all the time - - if you`re in a place where you`re hearing about polio in the wastewater, you can get a one time -- once in your lifetime a booster shot.
REID: OK.
GUPTA: Or if you`re somebody who, say, doesn`t know if you got vaccinated for polio as a child, you can get that shot.
For kiddos, parents, make sure your kids just get the four-shot series as children. That`s the best thing you can do to keep your kids safe.
REID: As kids go back to school, it`s always great to talk to our friend Dr. Vin Gupta.
Thank you very much. Really appreciate you being here. Thank you.
All right, coming up, my tribute to an incredibly special athlete and the sport that she changed forever.
Stay right there.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:58:00]
REID: Right now, even as we speak, tennis superstar Serena Williams is competing in the U.S. Open just one last time, facing Danka Kovinic at the Arthur Ashe Stadium in New York City. It`s the site of Serena`s U.S. Open win in 1999, when she was just 17 years old.
It is hard to imagine the tennis world without Serena Williams, as well as her big sister, Venus. Building on the history created by the great Althea Gibson and Arthur Ashe, Venus and Serena dramatically transformed this predominantly white sport, not just what it looked like, but also what was possible.
We`re talking two of the hardest serves in history. And Serena would go on to become the most dominant female athlete, maybe ever. Brace yourselves for an emotional appearance, because the sisters will be playing doubles at the U.S. Open after they were awarded a wild card, a fitting finale, as Serena prepares for a new chapter.
Earlier this month, Serena announced in "Vogue" magazine her plans to hang up her racket, calling it an evolution, an apt word for what this brilliant athlete has always been about.
The 23-time Grand Slam champion redefined what a women`s tennis player can be, inspiring a new generation of black tennis stars, like Naomi Osaka. Her very existence enthralled tennis fans, but also had a way of throwing the tennis world into a tizzy.
Her hair, her body and her very existence were constantly picked apart. She was a frequent target of racist and sexist attacks. She accused an umpire of sexism, saying she was treated differently because she`s a woman, highlighting gender discrimination in her sport or, frankly, any sport.
Now, let me just tell, you didn`t even have to be a tennis fan to obsess over that story, because that`s the thing about Serena Williams. Whether it`s her Wakanda catsuit banned by French tennis officials, or how she won the Australian Open while pregnant, Serena, the GOAT, revolutionized tennis and indeed the culture.
Tonight, she`s wearing a figure skating-inspired Nike dress that she designed made of six layers to honor her six past titles at Flushing. Her shoes include a diamond-encrusted swoosh, because she shines bright like a diamond. And we wouldn`t have it any other way.
That is tonight`s REIDOUT.
"ALL IN WITH CHRIS HAYES" starts now.