Summary
President Joe Biden announced a ban on all imports of Russian oil, gas, and energy. The Polish government announced that it was ready to transfer 28 Soviet-era fighter jets known as MIGs to a U.S. military base in Germany to then ultimately be given to Ukraine to defend itself against Russia. About 44 million people lived in Ukraine but two million of them including a million children have now fled the country. Irish Foreign Minister and Defense Minister believes it would widen the conflict beyond Ukraine`s border if fighter jets were transferred from Eastern European countries who still have them into Ukraine and could be perceived by Russia as NATO involvement and that could widen this conflict.
Transcript
JOY REID, MSNBC HOST: It is such a tragic situation. And thank you for bringing us that and that sound. And I think a lot of people need to understand that when people leave their countries, a lot of the times, you know, their children and their children`s children will be Polish. They will not go back.
A lot of the time when you leave where you are from in especially in a situation of war, it`s not like you go home. So, we need to start thinking about how this impacts Europe as a whole long term. Ellison Barber, thank you so much.
That is tonight`s REIDOUT. "ALL IN WITH CHRIS HAYES" starts now.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
AYMAN MOHYELDIN, MSNBC ANCHOR (voiceover): Tonight on ALL IN.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (through translator): We don`t have electricity. We didn`t have anything to eat. We don`t have medicine. We`ve got nothing.
MOHYELDIN: Cities devastated and civilians attacked. Tonight, the Russian tactics in Ukraine and the U.S. response.
JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Russian oil will no longer be acceptable in U.S. ports and the American people will deal another powerful blow to Putin`s war machine.
The ban on Russian fossil fuel and the effect it could have. Then, the worsening refugee crisis in Europe as two million Ukrainians flee the country, half of them children.
And as Ukraine`s President once again pleads for Western help, what a no- fly zone could actually mean in Ukraine, when ALL IN starts right now.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MOHYELDIN: Good evening everyone from New York, I`m Ayman Mohyeldin in for Chris Hayes. Today, in the latest move to apply economic pressure on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, President Joe Biden announced a ban on all imports of Russian oil, gas, and energy.
Now, the move has been championed by both Democrats and Republicans and it will hit Russia and the world`s largest oil exporter pretty hard in the most important part of its economy. Now, unlike previous sanctions against Russia since the war began, Biden announced this move without his European allies.
Instead, the European Union unveiled its own plan to cut Russian gas imports by about two-thirds this year, though it is unclear even if that is achievable for Europe since many of them are far more reliant on Russian energy.
According to The Washington Post, in the year ending in October, Russia supplied about a quarter of all oil imported by the E.U. three times as much as the next largest importer. Now, comparatively overall, Russian oil last year accounted for about three percent of total U.S. consumption.
Yesterday, I actually spoke with the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister for defense for Ireland at the council foreign relations here in New York. And he said he does not anticipate a similar ban in the E.U. for this very reason. Watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SIMON COVENEY, MINISTER FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND MINISTER FOR DEFENSE, IRELAND: There are countries particularly on the eastern side of the European Union that are really extraordinarily reliant on gas in particular, but also oil from Russia. I believe there`s an upper appetite to look at that, but I think it`s really important that the E.U. maintains unity. And so, that is a debase that I think will -- is taking place right now.
And I don`t think we`re likely to see the next round of sanctions banning all energy products from Russia, but it may well involve some.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MOHYELDIN: Now, Biden`s ban on Russian oil today will most definitely lead to higher gas prices all across the country. But it is just another attempt to economically isolate Vladimir Putin as he wages war in Ukraine where conditions continue to deteriorate by the day.
Thousands of Ukrainian civilians are still trapped in cities that are being relentlessly shelled by Russian forces. The images coming out of those cities, they show complete destruction. The United Nations now saying more than two million people have fled in that country in less than two weeks with UNICEF saying that half of those two million are children.
And despite the bombardment, the Ukrainian military has held strong, it still controls most of the major cities including the capital Kyiv. And today the House Intelligence Committee held its annual worldwide threats assessment where Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said in many ways that the Russian military is actually over its head.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
AVRIL HAINES, DIRECTOR OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE: The IC, as you know, provided warning of President Putin`s plans. But this is a case where I think all of us wish we had been wrong. The invasion has in fact proceeded consistent with the plan we assessed the Russian military would follow. Only they`re facing significantly more resistance from the Ukrainians than they expected encountering serious military shortcomings.
Moreover, we assess Moscow underestimated the strength of Ukraine`s resistance and the degree of internal military challenges we are observing which include an ill-constructed plan, morale issues, and considerable logistical issues.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MOHYELDIN: Now, a huge part of that resistance has been inspired by Ukraine`s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Today, he spoke remotely to the British parliament where he echoed Winston Churchill`s vow to never surrender and ask for more help defending his country`s skies which was a clear allusion to his repeated requests for a no-fly zone over Ukraine, and for a supply of additional fighter planes from European or NATO countries.
[20:05:09]
Now, it is a controversial request among NATO leaders, but there has been some movement on that front today. Earlier, the Polish government announced that it was ready to transfer 28 Soviet-era fighter jets known as MIGs to a U.S. military base in Germany to then ultimately be given to Ukraine to defend itself against Russia.
It appears though that announcement actually caught U.S. officials by surprise. The Pentagon and the State Department both saying they weren`t aware of it. In fact, the Pentagon released a statement saying in part, "We do not believe Poland`s proposal is a tenable one."
Dan de Luce is a national security and global affairs reporter for NBC News -- NBC News`s Investigative Unit, and he joins us now. Dan, thanks so much for being with us. So, I have to admit this one cut a little -- caught us a little bit by surprise here. Certainly, the officials that have been talking about this seem surprised. What do we know about what happened exactly with this announcement from the Polish government regarding those fighter jets.
DAN DE LUCE, NBC NEWS NATIONAL SECURITY AND GLOBAL AFFAIRS REPORTER: So, this has really been an incredibly confusing episode with all sorts of back and forth now for more than a week. It all started really a more than a week ago with the E.U. foreign policy chief saying that yes, indeed, some members of the European Union would be ready to transfer of fighter jets to Ukraine, Soviet-era fighter jets, including Poland, Slovakia, and maybe other countries. And then you had mixed messages from Poland.
And then finally this -- over the weekend, you had Ukrainian president Zelenskyy making this very impassioned appeal to members of Congress. And his top request was getting hold of more of these fighter jets for Ukraine. And the U.S. said, well, we`re looking into this. We`re discussing it with Poland.
Poland`s request was, well, if we do this, we want assurance that the U.S. will provide American-made fighter jets to replace these Russian-made planes for Ukraine. And then all of a sudden, this came -- here came this announcement today, the Undersecretary of State Victoria Nuland was testifying in Congress. She openly said she had no idea this was coming, that the U.S. was not consulted. And you`ve talked about what the Pentagon said today basically saying this is not tenable.
And I think partly what happened here is that Poland was on the spot. They never wanted to discuss this publicly. And they sort of got exposed, this idea was floated, and they didn`t want to be seen to be saying no to Ukraine. And of course, the Biden ministration doesn`t want to be seen to be saying no to Ukraine`s requests. And so, I think this was their solution was to say, well, we`ll just hand over these fighter jets to the Americans and let them sort it out.
And, of course, you have to understand, Poland, as we all know, has had a terrible history with Russia. And they do fear provoking a Russian attack. And I think there were concerns that by flying these jets into Ukraine or flying to the border, somehow they would open themselves up to a potential Russian attack, and that`s also figuring into this.
MOHYELDIN: All right, Dan de Luce live for us this evening, Dan, thank you so much for starting us off this hour. Oleg Ustenko is a top economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He joins me now.
Mr. Ustenko, thank you so much for joining us. You previously called money paid to Russia for oil blood money. Let`s talk about the announcement from Washington today. How big of a difference will the U.S. ban on Russian oil make? What impact will that have?
OLEG USTENKO, ECONOMIC ADVISER TO PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY: Hello, and thank you for having me here. I would say that look, everybody in Ukraine and I would say that everybody in the civilized world were expecting for that kind of step which was undertaken already by the Biden administration.
In our view, it was necessary to be done because as you rightly pointed out, we call this money which some countries from the civilized world are paying to Russia a real blood money. And this money reach -- you guys were paying for Russia were money they were using for Russian in Ukraine. So, without any doubts, that step which was done already by the White House, the U.S. is -- was expected and is very much welcomed.
MOHYELDIN: Are there any --
USTENKO: And at the same time, whether it`s enough or not --
MOHYELDIN: Yes, I`m just going to ask you -- Mr. Ustenko, I was going to ask you, are there any additional measures that you`d want the U.S. to take on top of this oil ban? I mean, what kind of pressure do you think needs to be applied to the Russian economy or at least what`s left of it right now?
[20:10:06]
USTENKO: Look, as you are very well aware, the United States is not is not the most important buyer for Russian energy. But what is really very important is the symbolic, you know, sight of the step which was already done by the United States. In my view, what we should expect and what we could expect from the civilized world is that everybody in Europe, or at least the most Europe immediately will follow the U.S.
But in my view, again, it`s something which everybody would expect. And all these thoughts that, look, we don`t want -- this is what they discussed which we hear now in Europe, look, it will be difficult for us. It would be painful -- it`s painful for us.
Today, again, a couple of hours ago, our cities were burned from Russian, you know, air forces. A number of people have been killed several hours ago. Look, our people are still on the ground. Look, one of the biggest and nicest city in the Ukraine called Sumy is under attack now.
Look, today, the kids in Ukraine were just dying because he didn`t have access to water. Look, our women are raped by these angry, you know, Russian soldiers. So, Russia really has to be pushed even more than that. And as I said, it was extremely important for us to see the symbolic, even symbolically, it was extremely important for us to see this damage was done by the United States.
Now, we can really say that the coalition is leading by Ukraine and United States against these barbarians who are trying, you know, to occupy our country is formed already. Now, we are expecting that more and more and more countries from the civilized world are going to during these coalition. This is very important.
MOHYELDIN: Mr. Ustenko, can I just ask you really quickly and I know that in your -- I know that you`re a senior economic adviser to President Zelenskyy, but I just wanted to ask you about the news today. And I don`t know if you`d want to comment on it. This announcement that the Polish government was prepared to transfer fighter jets to the U.S., but it doesn`t seem that that is going to happen for the time being. Do you have any reaction to that news, since you are describing a very grim reality for the people of Ukraine who desperately need to protect our skies from Russian bombardment?
USTENKO: Look, as you as you said, I`m covering the economic side. I just don`t want to comment on this topic.
MOHYELDIN: I completely understand. I just thought I would ask you. Thank you so much, Mr. Oleg Ustenko. I greatly appreciate your time and continue to wish you and your countrymen safety.
Vladimir Putin and his army continues the relentless invasion of Ukraine, bombing indiscriminately, leveling homes and villages with no regard for civilian life as we were just hearing there. And it`s a strategy that we`ve seen before from the Russian president.
Next, what Russia`s brutal assault on Aleppo in Syria revealed about Putin`s playbook that we`re now seeing in Ukraine. Just how far he`s willing to go? Stay with us.
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[20:15:00]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: To the list of what`s been destroyed in Ukraine, we can now add this preschool in the second largest city of Kharkiv. The high school next door also struck. Every day, this war is shattering more and more civilian lives.
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MOHYELDIN: Russian weapons are destroying cities throughout Ukraine, including the country`s second-largest city Kharkiv, parts of which are now entirely unrecognizable after sustained shelling from Russian forces. And there are legitimate fears over how much worse this bombing campaign is going to get because we know exactly how willing Russia is to decimate civilian areas. We`ve actually seen it before. During Russia sustained bombing campaign in Syria back in 2015 and then in 2016, Russian forces leveled civilian neighborhoods in the historic city of Aleppo.
Michael McFaul served as the U.S. Ambassador to Russia in the Obama administration. He`s an MSNBC International Affairs Analyst. And he joins me now. Ambassador McFaul, it`s great to have you with us.
Let`s start with some of the announcements today if we can, the significance. How significant do you think this U.S. banning of imports of Russian oil will be in the long term? Is it symbolic if we`re just doing it without the Europeans or will the Europeans have to get on board in order for the economic bite to sit in to sting Russia?
MICHAEL MCFAUL, MSNBC INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, it`s the morally right thing to do. We cannot have American taxpayers money, our money being shipped to Putin to fund his war. And sometimes you just have to do the morally right thing irrespective of whether it`s going to be effective or not.
I think the consequences for the Russian economy are pretty minimal, given how small amounts it is. And it is a global -- the oil economy, the oil market is global, so it won`t have a big impact there. The real action is in Europe. And the European Union today made an announcement that they plan to reduce by two-thirds their energy imports from Russia.
That`s quite significant. It`s in the future. It`s not right away, but that is quite significant. Amazing, in fact, if they can achieve that. So, those two announcements in one day, plus the shipment of the MIG planes from Poland to the United States, those are very significant events that happened today.
[20:20:12]
MOHYELDIN: Well, so let me ask you about that because it is significant as you`re saying this announcement. But it certainly appears by the end of the day that the American officials were caught by surprise with this polish announcement.
Admiral Kirby, the spokesperson for the Pentagon, even going a little bit further providing a statement that read in part, the prospect of fighter jets at the disposal of the government of the United States of America`s departing from a U.S.-NATO Base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO Alliance. It is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it."
And it seems by my analysis, he`s pouring a little bit of cold water on the idea for now we should note. What exactly do you think is going on here?
MCFAUL: Well, my understanding is that they were surprised by that announcement. In fact, I know they were surprised about that announcement. It is a request just to be clear that everybody knows that President Zelenskyy has been making publicly and privately for some time, directly to President Duda.
And so, instead -- the Polish president, so instead of trying to make that transfer to Ukraine, he made it to us, and it was like, OK, now you deal with this problem. I think that the military issue is, is there an airport left that is sufficiently long enough that you can use MIG-29 from?
I`m not a military expert, but I talked to them every day. And that`s what they say is the critical military issue here. I think the political geostrategic issue that Admiral Kirby talked to is the idea of Polish soldiers -- pilots flying from an American base in Germany, doing sorties into Ukraine and back, I don`t think that`s tenable.
I don`t think the Biden administration will support that. So the key is, can they figure out a way to get those MIGS to Ukraine. The Ukrainians think we can. The American saying it`s a -- it`s a hard thing to do. And I think we`ll be hearing a lot more about the actual logistics of that in the coming days.
MOHYELDIN: I was just going to add to that. I interviewed the Irish foreign minister who also happens to be the defense minister yesterday evening. We played a clip of that earlier in the program. And he said that from his understanding, and certainly speaking to some E.U. defense ministers, it would widen the conflict beyond Ukraine`s border if fighter jets were transferred from Eastern European countries who still have them into Ukraine. It could be perceived by Russia as NATO involvement and that could widen this conflict. Do you share that concern?
MCFAUL: Well, I share the concern, but it`s compared to what? Like, we`re going to -- we`re going to give them Stingers and we`re going to give them Javelins, but not aircraft. I don`t understand what the -- why that`s the red line. To me, the red line is no U.S. soldiers and no pilots should fight in Ukraine. I support President Biden 100 percent on that.
I do not believe we should be enforcing a no-fly zone. That to me means that we have to shoot down Russian aircraft. And that`s declaring war on Russia. But I really don`t understand what the difference is between a javelin and a MIG. They`re both attacking the same tanks. And I just -- I want you to hear the voice of the Ukrainians. They are pleading with us. They are the ones fighting. We say that we`re all on their side, but we`re on their side sitting and watching them fight alone.
My view is we should do whatever we can do without crossing the threshold of a declaration of war to support their military efforts.
MOHYELDIN: All right, Ambassador Michael McFaul, sir, thank you so much for your time. I greatly appreciate it as always.
I want to bring into the conversation NBC News Correspondent Cal Perry who joins us live from Lviv, Ukraine. Cal, it`s good to have you with us. So, we`ve been hearing, obviously, as we just heard there from Ambassador McFaul, and we also heard earlier from the senior economic adviser to President Zelenskyy, and he described for us the horrors of what is taking place.
We`ve all seen these images now. Describe for us what you`re hearing and seeing on the ground there with these Russian attacks against civilian neighborhoods continuing.
CAL PERRY, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: So, it`s a -- it`s a compounding problem that`s been going on now for five or six days. It`s not just happened overnight. For five or six days in some of these cities, you have had not no electricity, no water, and no heat.
So, you know, according to President Zelenskyy, yesterday, there was a young girl who died in Mariupol because she was dehydrated. We haven`t independently confirmed that but it speaks to the situation that we know exists in these cities where these Russian forces surround the city, they cut it off from the rest of the grid, and then they just shell it.
Now, the State Department will say that sometimes they`re indiscriminately shelling, sometimes they`re targeting civilians directly. It doesn`t really matter if you`re in the cities. And there are a dozen of them in the north and along the Black Sea that again for more than a week now have been shelled, people have not been able to leave.
We saw one humanitarian corridor open today in the north. 5000 people left but it was only in one city. And again, in the south, in the city Mariupol where we see the situation really disintegrating, there was no humanitarian corridor today. The buses were unable to get there. They had to turn around because of the shelling. It`s a disintegrating situation quickly.
[20:25:26]
MOHYELDIN: Cal, I think people who are watching this and certainly seeing these images have been horrified by the civilians being killed, in the civilian areas being killed. Luckily for us, your experience in covering another war gives us a little bit of perspective, because you covered the early days of the Syrian civil war. And some analysts are looking at what Russia did in Aleppo, thousands of miles away from Ukraine, to be able to see a pattern emerge here.
What similarities having covered both conflicts are you seeing between what Russia did in Aleppo and what Russia is doing now in Ukraine?
PERRY: Russia saved Bashar al-Assad. I mean, Bashar al-Assad was losing that war. Aleppo had become a stronghold for the opposition. And Bashar al- Assad flew to Moscow and met with Vladimir Putin and the jets came in. And they came in unabated. And they struck Aleppo, and they targeted hospitals, and they took out schools. They choke the city off. They didn`t allow people to leave. They laid siege to it, and they bombed it into dust.
And that is what we`re seeing here in cities in Ukraine. And people were aware that it could happen. When I hit the ground here, one of the first stories I did was at a local hospital. And the first thing the doctor said was don`t give away our location and don`t say the name of the hospital because we`re worried that Russian forces will take us out, that they will target us.
I think that is a place that we can draw similarities. I think there`s a number of places that we shouldn`t. The Syrian civil war started by the Syrian Government massacring its own people. This is obviously a very different circumstance. The other thing we can`t compare is the way that Europe has reacted.
Poland has opened its doors to a flood of refugees in a way that Europe did not open this door to Syrian refugees. So, you know, there are similarities in the military tactics of it. But as it comes to sort of the reasons for the way the media is covering it is very, very different. But certainly, there`s a map here. There is a playbook here that the Russians have carried out.
And it goes back to Chechnya too even before Syria. They surrounded Grozny, they shelled it into dust. They didn`t let people leave. They targeted civilian quarters as they left. So, we have this playbook. The Ukrainians are certainly concerned with it. They`re looking it up. They`re using it as a guide.
I think that`s where you can draw a comparison the way that civilians are being targeted and the way that it is just unrelenting.
MOHYELDIN: Yes, I was going to say, it`s certainly getting a lot of condemnation from around the world and others calling it war crimes both in Ukraine and in Syria as well. Cal Perry, live in Lviv for us, Cal, it`s good to see you. Stay safe, my friend.
And according to the U.N., they`re estimating another 300,000 Ukrainians fled the country in just the last 24 hours, bringing the total to two million since this invasion began almost 12 days ago. The refugee crisis after this.
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[20:30:00]
MOHYELDIN: All right, so before the war, about 44 million people lived in Ukraine but two million of them including a million children have now fled the country. And thousands, hundreds of thousands more are still trying to get to safety heading to the western part of Ukraine, away from those Russian bombs, many of them women and children.
NBC News "NIGHTLY NEWS" anchor Lester Holt met some of those mothers fleeing for safety on this international women`s day just outside of train station in Lviv.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LESTER HOLT, NBC NEWS ANCHOR: Leah came here from Kharkiv with her twins to escape the fighting, protecting them, telling them the sounds of war were actually just bad weather. She`s ready to leave that storm far behind them.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We want to go to Poland. I don`t know what to do. Maybe I want to go to Kurdistan.
HOLT: The girls for now content to play.
22-year-olds Sophia is a volunteer. She tells me she is in awe of the women she sees here.
A lot of the people I see here are women, children. They have a lot of strength. Can you talk about what they faced and how they`re dealing with it?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: They have a lot of, I don`t know, woman power to have the children and go away to nowhere.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MOHYELDIN: Yevheniya Kravchuk is a Ukrainian Member of Parliament. She`s the deputy head of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy`s political party. She joins me live from Ukraine tonight. Thank you so much for joining us. Can you tell us a little bit about what you`re experiencing right now?
YEVHENIYA KRAVCHUK, MEMBER OF UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT: Well, first of all, I would say that Ukraine is a world phenomenon right now, as these women and children who have strengths to flee alone without their men from the country. But they will return. Believe us, they will return and they want to return to their country.
And by the way, more than 150,000 of men returned to Ukrainian border to go to defense units to take the arms, to take their weapons and to defend their country. About what`s going on in Ukraine, first of all, President Zelenskyy is in Kyiv and will stay in Kyiv together with government and members of parliament.
Members of parliament are all over Ukraine working also as volunteers trying to help people to leave the very dangerous points on the Ukrainian map where bombs and shelling from Russian troops are the most.
Few women members of parliament are right now together with me on the way to European Parliament to speak to European Parliament Members about further sanctions. By the way, we`re really thankful for the sanctions from the United States on embargo on oil and gas. Because just imagine almost half of the money the Russia gas gets from selling gas and oil. It goes into budget.
So -- and every dollar they get from oil will turn as a bullet to -- as a bomb to civilians. We have a very sad number of 52 children that already died in this war that put in conducted in Ukraine and over 400 of civilians altogether. So, what -- Russians are lying on their propaganda channels, saying that they`re targeting all the military is complete fake news and false news. They`re fighting was the whole nation and killing children and killing women and killing everyone they can get with bombs and shelling.
MOHYELDIN: Miss Kravchuk, can you tell us what your country needs the most at this time? Because you`ve probably heard the U.S. and NATO have repeatedly said no to a fly zone, at least it`s off the table. What do you believe the U.S. and the West should be offering Ukraine in its place?
KRAVCHUK: Well, we still believe that a no-fly zone is the best way to save civilians from the deaths because the bombing and shelling is massive. And you can see it on your screen, they`re targeting a whole neighborhoods, whole cities erasing from the face of the earth.
And if NATO and other countries do not the strength -- they are, you know, strong countries but they do not have the strength to say that they will imply the no-fly zone at least on green corridors or then we will need a fighter jets from the countries to -- and air defense systems to do it by ourselves.
Because honestly, as a mother of 8-years-old daughter, I cannot understand why our children, Ukrainian children, are somehow different from those who reside in Berlin or in New York. Myself, I lived in New York for a few months when I was -- when I was a student, and I didn`t see -- I don`t see a difference between children in Ukraine and in United States, in Germany, in France, in any other countries. But our children are dying every day.
So, please help us to defend our children and our nation and our state. Because right now we`re fighting for the whole the world. Maybe you don`t realize but the world war already started. Russia is targeted the whole world, but only Ukraine is fighting for the whole world right now.
MOHYELDIN: All right, Miss Yevheniya Kravchuk, thank you so much for your time. I greatly appreciate it. And I wish you and your countrymen safety amidst all of this horror.
KRAVCHUK: Thank you.
MOHYELDIN: Thank you.
Coming up, more on that question of a no-fly zone that we were just talking about. Why is NATO refusing it and what such a move would actually entail? We`re going to break it all down for you after this.
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[20:40:00]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Here in the coastal city of Mykolaiv, every promise of a ceasefire, and the precious chance for people to reach safety has been broken so far.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): I have tears running down my face although I`m retired soldier. My wife was injured by shrapnel yesterday. She`s now at hospital number 4. She was just about safe there. Now she`s there and I`m here trying to sort things out somehow.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There`s little optimism. Today`s ceasefire will be any more successful.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MOHYELDIN: So, as harrowing stories like that play out all across Ukraine, Ukraine`s President Zelenskyy is pleading with NATO for a no fly zone in his country. But the U.S. and NATO have firmly rejected that idea for now, which would likely lead to a ground war with Russia, which of course, is a nuclear power.
That is in addition to the U.S. also rejecting those plans for Poland to send Ukraine fighter jets through a U.S. base in Germany.
Retired United States Marine Corps General Anthony Zinni served as Commander in Chief of the U.S. Central Command from 1997 to 2000. He joins me now. General, thank you so much for your time. You actually have the experience of running no-fly zones in Iraq during your time at Central Command. Explain to our viewers what that would actually entail if one was to be imposed over Ukraine.
GEN. ANTHONY ZINNI (RET), UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS: I think first of all, you need to understand under what authority you`re doing this. I mean, is this going to be a NATO operation? Is it going to be a coalition of the willing? You`re obviously going to need basis, who will provide those? The closer the bases are to the area you`re patrolling, obviously, the more sorties you can generate the better.
I think you have to think through things like what the cost of this is. It means that we will have to patrol an airspace over a land the size of Texas, combat air patrols, refuelers, AWACS, and maintain that for 24 hours. Rules of engagement are going to be tricky.
[20:45:11]
What do we do if an air defense system engages us, but it`s in the civilian area? What do you do if Russian airplane attacks and then retreats back to Russian airspace? How do we engage them? I think the most important question is, if we get into an engagement with the Russian aircraft or take out a Russian air defense system that engages us, that can easily escalate.
So, if a decision is made to install a no-fly zone, I think that the -- whether it`s the NATO and or the United States or both, you have to understand this could escalate into much serious, more serious engagement with the Russians and eventually lead to war with the Russians. And we have to be prepared to react to that.
MOHYELDIN: Yes, you raise a lot of very important technical and legal questions about that authority. And no-fly zones are by their very definition acts of a conflict. What alternatives do NATO allies have to assist Ukraine? You`ve probably seen the debate at the top of this show with the whole debate around fighter jets being transferred from Poland to Ukraine. That is also being for the time being rejected by the U.S. What else can the allies do to assist Ukraine?
ZINNI: Well, I think one thing that`s being talked about is these humanitarian corridors, that maybe can be done under the United Nations to ensure that there`s protection, that U.N. is managing them with U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, U.N. relief agencies and aid agencies in place.
And we could obviously say that it is a defensive measure, these corridors will be aligned with routes that lead to places that we consider safe, like Poland and Romania and other areas that we can evacuate refugees more easily who feel comfortable in making that trip.
So, that`s one option I`ve heard. But short of that, providing the weapon systems, the stingers, the javelins, as many as we can seems to be where we are right now. I don`t think that this is going to resolve itself in the short term. So, we need to look for long term options on how we deal with this Russian aggression.
MOHYELDIN: Let me play for you a soundbite from the Irish Foreign Minister and Defense Minister who spoke about the concerns he has potentially going beyond Ukraine. Listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
COVENEY: I think the NATO concern is the same as the as the concern within the European Union, if you start providing Russian belt fighter jets that some of the countries in the eastern sides of the European Union still have into Ukraine, you are really getting involved in the conflict with Russia in a much more provocative way. That I think may well extend this conflict beyond the borders of Ukraine.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MOHYELDIN: We are already providing them stingers and anti-tank missiles. You probably heard Ambassador McFaul say there is no difference between those stingers and a MIG fighter jet. I`m curious as a military guy your thoughts. I mean, is there -- there`s -- would it be a provocation to be sending MIG fighter jets into Ukraine?
ZINNI: I think you have to think about what is involved in this. Obviously, where would we base them? Are we going to -- are they going to go into Ukraine basis which may be under threat? Are they going to operate out of Poland or NATO basis which obviously is a bigger commitment in how we operate?
Obviously, the pilots will have to become familiar with those aircraft. Even though they may have flown similar aircraft, they will have to be checked out. All the support systems for these aircraft will have to be put in place. So, it`s a large logistics requirement. It is a step a little closer to direct engagement, because obviously this is going to be a NATO or E.U. or some combination of both supported operation.
MOHYELDIN: All right, General Anthony Zinni, sir, I greatly appreciate your time and analysis this evening. Thank you.
ZINNI: Sure. Thank you.
MOHYELDIN: Coming up, after nearly two weeks of sustained attacks in Ukraine, my interview with a former foreign minister of Russia on what Vladimir Putin got wrong and what the Russian President might do next. Stick around.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[20:50:00]
WILLIAM BURNS, DIRECTOR, CENTER INTELLIGENCE AGENCY: I think Putin is angry and frustrated right now. He`s likely to double down and try to grind down the Ukrainian military with no regard for civilian casualties. But the challenge that he faces, and this is the biggest question that`s hung over our analysis of his planning for months now, as the director -- as director Haines said, he has no sustainable political endgame in the face of what is going to continue to be fierce resistance from Ukrainians.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MOHYELDIN: So, that was CIA director William Burns at the worldwide threat hearing this morning before the House Intel Committee with a very frank assessment of Russian President Vladimir Putin state of mind as his troops attack the Ukrainian military and civilians.
And now that the Biden administration is increasing the pressure by halting Russian energy imports, there`s a lot of speculation about what an angry frustrated and increasingly isolated Vladimir Putin might do.
Andrei Kozyrev, served as the Russian Foreign Minister from 1991 to 1996, the first person to serve in that role in the post-Soviet era and was a member of the Russian legislators lower house, the Duma, until the year 2000. He joins me now.
Mr. Minister, thank you so much for joining us. Again, it`s great to see you. What would an isolated angry Vladimir Putin be thinking right now as his armies march into Ukraine is not going as planned?
[20:55:41]
ANDREI KOZYREV, FORMER FOREIGN MINISTER, RUSSIAN FEDERATION: I think exactly as the secretary said -- director of the CIA said that he will double down on them. He will try to intimidate the West and imitate Ukrainians. And unfortunately, he kind of succeeds to have initiative, military initiative, while NATO seems to be too cautious to me, so -- I mean, in military view.
But at least there are sections which could be more severe, though, if Europe would be more forthcoming, so Ukrainians are really shouldering now the war, and they are to win this war. But the case of this might be even greater and will be unfortunately greater. So, it will be worse before it gets better. But he acts out of desperation.
MOHYELDIN: You have said that the sanctions against oligarchs are actually a powerful tool. This ban on oil today from the U.S., as some have suggested is important, mostly symbolic, but without Europe getting on board kind of ineffective. Do you share that assessment?
KOZYREV: Definitely. I mean, their statistics, it`s not a large part of their oil exports. And unfortunately, Germany and other European countries are totally unprepared. And that should be a lesson for future. Whatever the result, and the result will be, of course, defeat of Russia in this war, because it`s impossible to win over people.
But it should be also a lesson to the West. The West should not even think of coming back to business as usual with Russia. They have to free themselves from their dependence on Russian oil and gas and they have two deep sanctions until Russia -- not until Russia withdraws forces because that will -- the Ukrainian people too, they will force them to patrol forces sooner or later.
But to keep sanctions before Russia becomes a normal country, a country to which you can rely to follow the rules, very simple rules. Otherwise, it will repeat itself every two, three years down the road. You know, not only with Putin himself, but with his entourage, which will probably inherit the power sooner or later.
So, it`s -- the situation very tragic, but it should be a lesson for future. Until Russia becomes normal country, No business as usual.
MOHYELDIN: We have about 45 seconds left, but I wanted to ask you about something you tweeted out urging Russian diplomats to resign. A large part of that tweet was in Russian. I`m curious to get your thoughts on. Have you heard from any Russian diplomats? Are you still in contact with any who shed some light on what they are thinking? Do you anticipate there being mass resignations over what Vladimir Putin is doing?
KOZYREV: No, I didn`t expect mass reservation resignations, but I expect them to start thinking about what they are doing, and also the military. The diplomats and the military have to protect their people, their countries. And this aggression is destroying both bother country, Ukraine, and Russia. So, I just wanted them to wake up to their real Putin.
MOHYELDIN: All right, former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev, sir, thank you so much for your time and your insights. I greatly appreciate it as always.
That is ALL IN for this evening. I`m Ayman Mohyeldin in for Chris Hayes. "THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW" starts right now with my friend and colleague Ali Velshi who`s reporting live from the Ukrainian border. Good evening, Ali.