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Eve of historic midterm, TRANSCRIPT: 11/5/2018, All In w Chris Hayes.

Guests: Tom Bonier, Maxine Waters, Michael Moore, Rebecca Traister

Show: ALL IN with CHRIS HAYES Date: November 5, 2018 Guest: Tom Bonier, Maxine Waters, Michael Moore, Rebecca Traister

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC HOST: -- these are going with Trump or not. You feel like cheering on his gross claim of entitlement to mock disparaged women or do you want to sing out with a higher sentiment in booth tomorrow that God created women worthy of all our respect, all of it. That`s HARDBALL for now. "ALL IN" with Chris Hayes starts right now.

CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST: Good evening from Dallas, Texas on the eve of this truly historic Election Day, I am Chris Hayes in a special coverage tonight. We have correspondents across the country. Rehema Ellis in Atlanta for an update on the bitterly fought gubernatorial race in Georgia, Garrett Haake in El Paso where Beto O`Rourke is trying to knock Ted Cruz out of the Senate, and Joy Reid joins us from Florida with the latest in that state and beyond.

Steve Kornacki is moments away at the big board with the races to watch as Democrats tried to flip Congress blue and Cornell Belcher and Tom Bonier have been poring through the data, the latest polling, and the historic levels of early voting. We`ll also be joined tonight by Congresswoman Maxine Waters to respond to Trump`s toxic closing strategy, Rebecca Traister on the mobilization of women and what we`re going to see tomorrow, and later Michael Moore on why nobody has an excuse not to vote especially this year.

We have quite simply never seen a Midterm Election like this one. One in which in the words of President Barack Obama, the very character of our nation is on the ballot. The early vote data is staggering more than 35 million people have already voted. In some states including right here in Texas, there have already been more early votes cast than were cast in the last Midterms overall, that includes Election Day.

Across the country, organizers say they`ve never seen levels of enthusiasm like this. There`s a good chance that someone you know, maybe someone who wasn`t even particularly politically engaged in the past spent this weekend canvassing in an unfamiliar neighborhood in a last-ditch effort to get out every last vote. We don`t know, let`s be clear, how all this energy will translate to election results. That said, it sure does seem to have Republicans a little spooked.

The President`s closing strategy of lying and fear-mongering has reached absolutely frantic levels including a racist television ad refused by all the major news channels and a transparent attempt on Twitter to intimidate Democratic voters to keep them away from the polls. In Georgia it`s getting ugly or I should say uglier after racist robocalls attacking Democrat Stacey Abrams the woman trying to become the nation`s first black female governor, the Secretary of State is now -- she is now facing baseless charges from her opponent the current Secretary of State Brian Kemp who is facing criticism for his own efforts at voter suppression. Kemp has now announced what sure to be a sham hacking investigation of state Democrats.


STACEY ABRAMS (D), GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE, GEORGIA: This is a desperate attempt by Brian Kemp to once again cover up his bad actions and his abuse of power. He`s abusing his power and he`s not fit to be the next leader of the State of Georgia.


HAYES: And so we begin in Atlanta Georgia where NBC News Correspondent Rehema Ellis is covering the Abrams-Kemp race. It has been a close one and bitterly fought and you have the man who`s overseeing the state`s election apparatus running in that race. What`s it look like from there on the ground?

REHEMA ELLIS, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Here on the ground at the Stacey Abrams location, we`ve got people who are working for a campaign and they`re conducting robo -- not robocalls, they`re conducting calls to prospective voters of Stacey Abrams out. They`ve been doing it all day and they say they`re going to do it all tomorrow as well. They`re also upset over the allegations coming from the Secretary of State`s office that you pointed out, these allegations that there might be hacking in some way. They say that what`s most important here is that people remember that they have to get out and vote.

But you know, this thing really does depend on who you talk to, Chris, because when we talked to some people who are Democratic voters, they believe that this is just a distraction, an opportunity for the stakes of the Brian Kim`s office to try and keep people away from the polls, to make them afraid. When we talk to people who are Kemp`s supporters, they say that this there`s nothing to this except that they think that -- not that there`s nothing to it -- the Republican voters think that indeed there might be something to it otherwise Kemp would not have alleged it in the first place.

So this is a -- it`s a -- it`s a very close race. You talk about the fact that there is a really strong early voting in the state. And one woman I talked to today she said she`s a staunch Republican. She said she`s afraid because Georgia has been a red state but some people think that it could turn blue. Chris?

HAYES: All right, Rehema Ellis in Atlanta, thank you very much. Let`s turn back to Texas where MSNBC Correspondent Garrett Haake is live in El Paso where Beto O`Rourke is about to give his last rally of the campaign. Garrett, welcome. You`ve been covering this campaign closely. There was a sense I think that they had run out of gas a little bit about a few weeks ago. There was a sort of rising sense from the Cruz folks, they had this in the bag. What`s the mood now?

GARRETT HAAKE, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Republicans were very confident at the start of early voting here and really through the first week of early voting. And then Republicans I`ve talked to have seen that confidence tail off here a little bit. And the O`Rourke campaign has gotten another surge of energy as they`ve been traveling around the state holding these big rallies. First in far-flung places across the state like Amarillo, Lubbock, the home of Texas Tech, and then the last few days in the bigger cities in Texas where they really need to run up the score in Austin, Houston, San Antonio, and tonight in El Paso, O`Rourke`s hometown.

The thing that I`ve been trying to square the whole time we`ve been down here, Chris, is really if you just look at the polling in this race, every poll has favored Ted Cruz in some place by a wide margin but it doesn`t square with the enthusiasm I`ve seen. And I`ve covered both candidates at their rallies and at their events and there really does seem to be something around the O`Rourke campaign with younger and more diverse folks coming out, being extremely fired up, sort of old-school Texas Democrats telling me they`ve never felt anything like this in their lifetime.

The O`Rourke campaign has to prove a concept that they really can`t prove until Election Day which is that they have been able to put together a new coalition of Texas voters because all the old ways of trying it have not worked. The early vote has been enthusiastic, it`s been a huge number. I know you`re going to talk about that later.

The O`Rourke campaign sees a lot of signs of hope in that, but they could run the most competitive election in Texas in the last 25 years and still lose by half a million votes. The math here is incredibly difficult but the energy level here on the ground is undeniable and I think when we wake up tomorrow morning, if we see lines around the block at some of these polling places, in some of these big cities in Texas or in the valley where there`s a million voters who`ve never really been fully activated, about 80 percent of them Hispanic, we could be looking at an upset here.

But again it is an unprovable, unknowable thing that this coalition that the Beto O`Rourke campaign has bet on even exists until tomorrow.

HAYES: Yes, that`s very true. Democrats trying to solve the Texas voting Rubik`s Cube for 24 years unsuccessfully and Beto taking a different run at it. Garrett Haake, thank you very much. MSNBC National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki has been covering the big picture from day one and he joins me now. Steve, what are you looking at as we head into tomorrow?

STEVE KORNACKI, MSNBC NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I think the question here is when are we going to get some early signals tomorrow night about how this is shaping up. The answer 6 p.m. polls are going to start to close in Indiana, most of that state. And of course, Indiana home to one of the most pivotal Senate races out there. Joe Donnelly, a Democrat trying to defend a seat in a state that Trump won by 20 points. A lot of early voting in India and I think in that 6:00 to 7:00 hour, we`re going to get this to get a sense right away of how Donnelly is holding up. And of course the better Donnelly is doing, the more -- the better that could portend for Democrats nationally.

On the House side of course, where Democrats are trying to get that net gain of 23 seats that would flip the House, again, 6:00 is the hour the district to check out, first of all, is the Sixth District of Kentucky. This is the Lexington area, University of Kentucky, Republican-held seat. Trump won it by double digits. Amy McGrath is challenging Andy Barr. And again, a couple things that are going to be tested here. This is a battleground district. Lexington is about 40 percent of the population here. Is their Democratic energy? Is their surged Democratic energy in a college town with a lot of sort of white-collar professionals, that constituency, we`ve been talking about young voters so potentially activated by this campaign. We`ll see.

There are also the rural areas. That is Trump country. The counties out there are the outlying counties, places Trump won with 60 you know, 65, 70 percent of the vote. Is the Republican enthusiasm on par there or is it down a little? And have Democrats made inroads into Trump country? So a read out there in the Sixth District of Kentucky in the first hour.

And at 7:00, an hour later, things get very competitive very quickly. The state of Virginia, the polls closed there. There are four districts in Virginia, Republican districts where Democrats are trying to flip. Here`s one to keep an eye on right away. This is the suburbs of Richmond. They anchored this district. Dave Brat, remember him? He took out Eric Cantor four years ago facing a challenge from Abigail Spanberger. This is a district Trump won but those suburbs if they are there for the Democrats, that would pour ten big things for them not just in Virginia but nationally.

And of course, it`s not just in the seventh district. How about right next door. Here`s another one to watch. We`ll get early numbers. The Fifth District, you know what the anchor of the Fifth District is, Charlottesville. Charlottesville sort of in the center of this district right here. This is a Republican district. The Democrats have targeted, the polling has been closed here. Corey Stewart, the Republican Senate candidate at the top of that ticket, is he a drag for Republicans, is there some kind of Charlottesville effect? This district will be an interesting one to keep an eye on, But again, I think we could get a sense fairly early based on Virginia and also Florida closing at 7:00 if Democrats start flipping seats in Virginia, start flipping seats in Florida, that could mean they`re going to go well over 23.

One other quickly I tell you to keep an eye on. We`ve talked so much about the Georgia governor`s race. If Stacey Abrams delivers on the promise of her campaign which is new voters which is flood of energy and excitement, it could have a ripple effect in the House. The Seventh District, Republican Rob Woodall running for re-election. This is a place traditionally very Republican but it came down to you know, Mitt Romney won this thing by over 20 points. Trump only won it by six. Woodall is in trouble.

If you have surge turnout here, the Democrats are talking about. Think of this. It`s Gwinnett County. 80 percent of this district, it flipped to Hillary Clinton, Gwinnett County did in 2016. It is -- the population is exploding, it is diversifying rapidly, if Stacey Abrams delivers, I think you`ll see it in Gwinnett County and I think there could be a ripple effect that could put this Republican seat in jeopardy on the House side.

HAYES: All right. Steve, those are great things to watch. Thank you very much for that. There are the two big races going on in Florida. Our own Joy Reid is in Tallahassee for more on what`s happening the closing hours there. Joy, welcome. Joy there is a really interesting relationship between Andrew Gillum running for governor at the top of that ticket and Bill Nelson. It really feels like the newcomer Andrew Gillum has been pulling up Bill Nelson in the polling. They`ve been pulling the same and you talk to people in Florida, it seems like the energy is Gillum is sort of lifting up Nelson. What do you think of that?

JOY REID, MSBC HOST: Yes, I mean, if you believe the polling down here, Gillum has been consistently leading DeSantis, his Republican opponent, whereas Bill Nelson has kind of flip-flopped with the current Governor Rick Scott and was behind for quite a bit of time even when Gillum was a head above the margin of error. So what you`re seeing now is that the momentum for Gillum is actually starting to drag Bill Nelson forward to a point now Bill Nelson is actually leading in some polls outside the margin of error.

Just when you talk to people just on the ground we were in South Florida yesterday, we`re in Fort Lauderdale, people talk about Gillum, right? It`s not -- there`s not a lot of proactive talk about Nelson but what people are saying is they`ll vote the slate. People are excited about voting for Andrew Gillum and willing to vote Democratic down the ticket. And ironically enough, down the ticket means the United States Senator.

HAYES: Right. What do you think -- as we head into tomorrow, what is what is your thinking about how to think about what`s going to happen tomorrow?

REID: Well, you know, there`s a lot of sort of X factors in Florida. First of all, it`s an eight-page ballot, eight pages. Florida is notorious for these lengthy, wordy amendments. There`s one that`s really significant to a lot of progressives amendment for which is would restore voting rights to millions of people who serve their time for felonies. That`s the one that African-American activists, the civil rights groups are really focusing on and wanting people to laser focus on, but there are other really convoluted ballot issues that are in that ballot as well. So there`s a lot of concern that just the size of the ballot could discourage down ticket voting and the people won`t go all the way down,

There are a lot of competitive State Senate and state house races as well. And so what Democrats are hoping is that the enthusiasm for Gillum, and I`m here in his home city in Tallahassee right now, that the enthusiasm will encourage people to stay with the ballot. I know that you know, during the Obama campaign in 2008, that line was moving. It was another long ballot and people didn`t necessarily vote down after they voted for Obama. So what Democrats are hoping is that people don`t do that.

But we have seen -- I got to tell you -- the excitement is real. There is an excitement that is on par with what I saw for Stacey Abrams in Georgia and what you`re seeing for Beto O`Rourke. So if that holds, Bill Nelson probably his first call that night. election night tomorrow night should be to Andrew Gillum to thank him.

HAYES: You know, there`s -- I`m here in Texas. You just mentioned Stacey in Georgia. I think that Beto O`Rourke, Stacey Abrams, and Andrew Gillum are all in their own way doing something interesting which is they`re in a state where they`ve had a tough nut to crack. In Florida, there hasn`t been a Democratic governor in over two decades if I`m not mistaken. Obviously, Georgia has been a while and in Texas, it`s been 24 years. They`re all trying to come up with some math that works and they`ve all kind of taken new approaches although they`re similar and that they`re not doing what Democrats have traditionally done to try to win statewide in those places.

REID: Well, absolutely. First of all, if you look at the history of the way that Democrats have nominated, a gubernatorial candidate, they`ve gone with Alex Sink, they`ve gone with you know, the sort of very safe centrist candidate who they think they can sell in the northern part of the state. But if you understand Florida, you have understand that Florida is not one state, it`s about five states, right? There`s a very Midwestern oriented part of it, there`s a very southern, very sort of Alabama-esque part of it that`s in the northern part of the state, there are very conservative parts of it, rural parts, and then there`s South Florida which is very different from the rest of the state tonally, politically, and in every other way.

Democrats have tended to play for the center of the state, the I-4 corridor. The largest media market here is Tampa and Democrats have tended to zero in on Tampa and try to moderate nominate a moderate. Somebody, they think that Republicans will cross over and vote for. What Andrew Gillum has done and which really confounded Democrats even in the primary because he was running against one candidate, the daughter of the former governor of this state Bob Graham`s daughter of Gwen Graham, is that he confounded that.

He`s running as a progressive. He`s running openly as a progressive. He`s running against the NRA. He`s saying I will fight the NRA. He`s been to court with the NRA. Nobody here fights the NRA. Both parties follow the lead of what`s called the permanent governor of Florida, the head of the NRA down here. He is not afraid of her at all. Not afraid of the NRA, stood with the Parkland kids. So what he`s doing is kind of what Beto was doing and what Stacey is doing.

They are younger candidates, they are dynamic speakers, they are drawing big crowds, they`re standing with young voters, they`re going to non- traditional places, they`re going to rural parts of the state that don`t normally get a lot of attention, and they`re just running as their authentic progressive selves. And as turns out ironically enough, that works. People actually like an authentic candidate. I`ve talked to Republicans who don`t agree with Andrew Gillum on a lot of policy, but they like him. They like the way that they think he would govern the state. They think he would bring people together.

HAYES: Yes, it`s worth noting whatever the outcome in those 33 races are and I think Gillum is probably the strong -- most strongly position of the three candidates we`re talking about to win, that they`re all very competitive. It`s not like the Democrats have been fielding tons of competitive statewide candidates for governor of Florida or Democrats in Georgia or Texas. So something`s working. Joy Reid, we`ll talk more tomorrow. I can`t wait.

REID: Yes. Thank you.

HAYES: All right, for more on what we already know about what could happen tomorrow based on early voting and more, let`s bring in Democratic strategist Tom Bonier, the CEO of the data provider TargetSmart, and MSNBC Political Analyst Cornell Belcher, a Democratic Pollster. And Tom, I`ll start with you. You`ve been giving these regular updates sort of combining the modeling that you guys have and the early votes. What are the sort of broad conclusions you`re drawing from that data?

TOM BONIER, CEO, TARGETSMART: Well, you know, I mean, the first is the obvious, that we`re headed towards record break -- we`ve already broken records for the Midterm Election in terms of people voting before Election Day. As you mentioned over 35 million, when all those votes are counted will likely be north of 40 million votes. But what we know if those trends hold out, it`ll not only be a record for early vote, it`ll also be a record in terms of one of the youngest and most diverse electorates we`ve seen in a Midterm Election.

You`re seeing just massive surges especially from younger voters. People under the age of 29 are coming out at rates that we`ve never seen before in the Midterm Election. They just tend not to vote in Midterm Elections and they`re coming out very high rates. African-American voters, Latino voters, women, it`s really quite striking.

HAYES: Cornell, you know we`ve talked -- you and I have talked on the air about this right? The fact that Midterm electorates tend to be older, whiter, and more conservative than presidential years, so hearing that as a Democratic strategist has to be music to your ears. But is there is there caution there? What is your -- what is your thinking?

CORNELL BELCHER, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: There is some caution there but I want to tie this conversation back up with the conversation you just had with Joy. You know, Beto, Stacy, and Gillum, Mayor Gillum, they are that they are part of the Obama continuum, right? And to a certain extent, part of the Dean-Obama continuum, this idea of we need to expand the electorate and Joy was spot on too often in those states. We`ve seen you know, Democrats try to run -- establishment Democrats try run races where they talk to -- try to talk win over Republican voters right? And the last time you know, in Georgia we lost by 200,000 votes trying to do that. And this time around it is very much the Obama continuum. How can we expand the electorate?

And to Tom`s point, you know, bringing in younger voters, bringing in more diverse electorate. That was the our key to victory for Obama but somehow that got -- that has gotten lost in the Midterms. But what you see with these candidates, I just put them squarely in the Obama continuum is this idea that we`re going to not try to win over all these Republican voters but we`re going to expand the electorate and bring more of our voters into the process which is very different strategically.

HAYES: Yes. Although to that point, Tom, I mean, you hear people invoke this a lot right? It`s easy to say well expand the electorate. Doing it is hard. It is hard to turn nonvoters into voters. It`s hard to turn infrequent voters into frequent voters. In terms of the data from early voting, there`s a question about are you cannibalizing your Election Day vote or do you see evidence in a place like Georgia or Texas that you`re actually getting new voters? What is -- what is it -- what do we know in terms of that?

BONIER: You know, that`s a big lesson learn from 2016. In 2016 you saw Democrats getting quite excited about the early vote and showing really strong numbers for Hillary Clinton. In the end it turned out that a lot of that early vote absolutely was just cannibalized, that on election day it - - things swung more Republican. And so that`s what we`ve been paying closer attention to as we`ve looked at the early vote through today in those 35 million-plus votes. And what we`re seeing and what`s really the most striking thing is the number of new voters who are coming out.

We`re talking about millions of new voters just where you are in Texas, we`re talking about half a million people who voted in Texas who have never voted in any election before. You don`t see that sort of thing happen in a Midterm Election. You`re seeing the same thing happen in in Georgia, in Florida, in Nevada, in Arizona. It`s really unprecedented.

HAYES: And Cornell, that to me that`s the big -- the reason there`s so much suspense about tomorrow night and the reason I think the range of outcomes is so wide. We don`t know who those people are. We don`t know we don`t know what that electorate is going to look like, but you hear half a million new voters and you think what -- it`s election day and a lot -- there`s a lot of possibilities tomorrow night.

BELCHER: Well, half a million new voters, I mean, that doesn`t happen in Midterms and that`s why you know, it`s ideal of what is the likely voter. You know, and I said this -- I said this on your air is I`m a pollster but I think we`re going to get a lot of surprises tomorrow because what we think is historically a likely voter and that we`re taking account in our - - in our models, you know, that`s not true. And half a million new voters in Texas, that means -- you know what that means? That means the polling there in Texas is probably not picking up all those new voters because they`re not traditional like-- traditional likely voters and that to me is Beto`s pathway to victory there in Texas as again that Obama continuum expand the electorate.

HAYES: Tom, what -- there`s also the fact that early voting has expanded generally right? So we`re seeing new numbers and part of that just to be apples to apples right, is that there -- it seems that both the habit of early voting and there`s more places offering that between say now and 2014.

BONIER: That`s right. You have to look at the laws and the laws have changed tone. In some places they`ve actually made it harder to early vote, in places like North Carolina and Ohio. But for the most part, they have. But -- so that`s why we`re generally looking not just at the raw increases. I mean, again, if you look at the percent increase in Texas, the turnout among younger voters, people under the age of 30 has increased by over 500 percent from 2014. Again, very, very low baseline. There wasn`t a competitive election there as you`ve said in very long time.

But it`s not just that these younger voters are increasing in a percent sense, they`re increasing their share of the electorate. So in 2014, they were five percent of the electorate, right now they`re 8.5 percent of the electorate. That`s a big difference and that`s going to impact the polls as Cornell said.

HAYES: Yes, and that`s really for Beto particularly, I think even more than Stacey Abrams or Andrew Gillum for some of the other statewide races. That`s --he`s got to change the math and he needs a lot like that to fall his way to get over that threshold. Tom Bonier and Cornell Belcher, thank you both.

BONIER: Thank you.

HAYES: There is so much more to get you on this election eve. Coming up next, Congressman Maxine Waters will be here so do not go away.


HAYES: The President`s closing message down the stretch has consisted largely of two things, one a gross mix of racism xenophobia and other kinds of bigoted incitement, and two an unprecedented level of lying even for him. According to the Washington Post, Trump has gone from telling an average of five lives a day in the first nine months of his Presidency to telling an astonishing 30 lies a day in just the last seven weeks.

While Democrats have focused on health care, good-paying jobs, or to paraphrase House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, they`ve succeeded in not taking the bait. Joining me now is Congressman Maxine Waters Democrat from California. And Congresswoman, I`ve noticed that for all the talk to the Democrats don`t have a message, there has been a real unified effort not to play on the President`s turf rhetorically. What do you think of that?

REP. MAXINE WATERS (D), CALIFORNIA: Well, I think that we`ve learned a lot about this president and the way that he manipulates the press and the way that he tries to divert our attention from the real issues. And what we have learned is not to allow him to get away with that. And so I think we`re being very successful talking about our issues, talking about health care which is a very important issue in this country, talking about housing, Medicare, Social Security, talking about the infrastructure and we are winning because of that.

HAYES: California is -- there are a bunch of competitive races in California, your congressional -- your sort of state caucus might change quite a bit. What does it say about the sort of changing nature of your state that you`ve got these Republican-held districts in a plea deeply conservative, formerly conservative Orange County that are neck-and-neck?

WATERS: Well, what it says is that this is a Trump party and those Republicans who resent it have not been able to stand up to him and to actually get him to change and now it`s impacting them and they`re losing because of him. He is destroying the Republican Party so it`s all because of the Trump party that I think we`re winning in these deeply conservative districts like Orange County where so many of the candidates are coming from.

HAYES: Nancy Pelosi has talked about a kind of corruption package of reforms that she wants to introduce should Democrats take the House. What`s your thinking on that?

WATERS: Well, you know, there`s always talk about you know, cleaning up you know, politics cleaning up what goes on in the Congress of the United States. That`s not new. Both sides talked about that all the time because they know that people do believe that there is corruption, that there is dishonesty. So it`s a continuation of talking about what do we do to become better legislators, to become better policymakers? What do we do to get the confidence of the people back again? What can we do to prove that we`re there about Public Policy, we`re there about dealing with the issues, and it`s not just about ourselves and trying to better ourselves because of the titles that we have.

HAYES: You`ll presumably if Democrats were to take the House, you would be the chair I believe unless something radical changes of the Finance Committee, it`s a very powerful position. What do you view as your agenda should you ascend to that role?

WATERS: Well,. it is the Financial Services Committee, it`s a very important committee and we have oversight responsibility for all of the financial institutions in this country. The banks, the big banks, the small banks, we have the insurance companies, we have all of HUD, we have the International Monetary Fund, we have to deal with some issues that have not been dealt with properly for a long time. We`ve got to deal with the National Flood Insurance Program. We`ve got to deal with the EXIM Bank. And so it is important committee.

And you know, at the top of my agenda is dealing with the reform of Fannie and Freddie, and trying to make sure that we do something about the housing crisis. But, of course, I have to make sure that we never again, to the best of my ability, fall into what happened to us in 2008 when we had the exotic loans that were, you know, given to people in this country, many people lost their homes. But, of course, many of the people who lost their homes were in communities that were target by some of the biggest banks in America.

So, we have all of those financial services issues, and there is a lot of work to do. And I`m hopeful that certainly we will take back the House and that my colleagues will see fit to support me to chair that committee. I have the seniority. I have the relationships. I`ve spent a lot of time on Dodd-Frank reforms and trying to same them. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, all that of work that we have been doing to try to give consumers some protection.

HAYES: Final question. There is a really fascinating item about the number of sort of enforcement actions the Trump administration has brought in the first 20 months versus the last 20 months of Obama. Huge decline in how many enforcement actions against the big banks and financial services with this administration. Do you think Wall Street and the big banks are hoping the Republicans keep control of the House?

WATERS: Well, I have to say that they must be thinking that, because they have found a lot of support from Republicans for everything that we have tried to do to bring about some fairness and some justice with these financial services companies, et cetera, we have been absolutely fought against by the Republicans. And so they see that the Republicans are certainly more friendly to them, and certainly more supportive of their ability to continue the way they have continued historically.

The banks really have controlled the congress of the United States of America. And many of our colleagues have said, oh, you know, all that`s complicated. We don`t understand derivatives. We don`t know what they`re talking about when they talk about Volcker (ph). And so they have gotten away with, you know, the kind of language that they use, in the way they produce their products. And so many of our colleagues have just shied away from that and let them do what they want to do. And so they have enjoyed being in charge of, you know, all of their issues in the House of Representatives and in the Senate.

And so I think they are a little bit worried that the Republicans will not perhaps be in charge.

HAYES: All right. Congresswoman Maxine Waters, many thanks.

A quick clarification here, I just want to say earlier this hour we showed a graphic of the Florida gubernatorial race, may have caught your eye, because our system had inadvertently populated some test numbers. Obviously, we do not have any vote totals here the night before the election. That was a misfire. Don`t worry, I was pretty confused when I saw it up there to see it myself.

All right. Still to come, Michael Moore on how he sees things playing out tomorrow just ahead. And the battle here in Texas with the possibility that incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz could conceivably be defeated by Beto O`Rourke, like nothing we`ve ever seen. That`s next.



BETO O`ROURKE, DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE FOR SENATE, TEXAS: We will organize not against someone else, not against another political party, not against anything. We are organized for one another.

SEN. TED CRUZ, (R) TEXAS: Beto O`Rourke has shown a dismaying willingness to demonize, to villainize law enforcement at the drop of a hat, to divide us, to tear us apart.

O`ROURKE: Never again at their most desperate and vulnerable moment will we ever take a child from the arms of their mother or their father.

CRUZ: When it comes to immigration, what do Texans want? We want to build the wall.

O`ROURKE: We enter our 18th year of war without him. Iraq, 27 years through six successive presidential administrations.

CRUZ: For eight years under Barack Obama, our military was weak and our readiness was undermined. We are in the process of turning that around and America is back.


HAYES: That is what it`s been like here in Texas the past few months and what has been one of the most closely watched and most polled midterm races anywhere in the country to the annoyance of most Republicans who have said all along that Cruz has it in the bag.

But hours before the polls open, this race is very notably not a lock for Republicans. The polling all of a sudden stopped. FiveThirtyEight`s Nate Silver points out there`s been only one poll in the Texas Senate race since the end of October from a Democratic affiliated group showing O`Rourke and Cruz neck and neck. The one before that had Cruz up by only by three points.

Now, as we were saying before, the early vote here in Texas has also smashed records. 5.8 million people have already cast their ballots, more than 250,000 more than the presidential year of 2016. And more than double the figure of the last midterm election in 2014.

So, we really don`t know what tomorrow night is going to look like here in Texas, but that`s why we`ll be here to cover it all as it happens.

And the day of the Women`s March, women have fueled a movement poised to shift the political landscape in ways we have not seen in a generation at least. Rebecca Traister joins me next.


HAYES: As we have documented on this show, all throughout election season, there are a record number of women running for office this year. But behind those campaigns there has also been an unprecedented volunteer mobilization this year, and women are at the center of that, too.

One organizer told All In that three quarters of his organization`s most active volunteers are women and that 40 percent of those women hadn`t done anything political before Donald Trump was elected.

The women in the streets from the Women`s March, it seems, are now in streets across America knocking on doors and helping get people to the polls. Here with me now, Rebecca Traister, writer at-large for New York Magazine, author of the fantastic book, good and mad, the revolutionary power of women`s anger.

Rebecca, this is something you`ve been reporting on and I think seeing, witnessing firsthand as you`ve been out on the road, not just the candidates, but the women volunteers, the people knocking on doors. It is astonishing how powerful that force is, particularly in Democratic politics.

REBECCA TRAISTER, NEW YORK MAGAZINE: And I think you are looking at so many of these women who, as you said, had perhaps been somnambulant, apathetic, maybe they were Democratic voters, maybe they were irregular Democratic voters, and they have just -- at least a segment of them had been shocked into a kind of activism that in many cases is taking of their lives.

I talk again and again, I`ve been going around the country meeting women who just describe their every night, every weekend, every spare hour that`s not spent doing their paid jobs, dedicated to working for campaigns or with organizations that are comprising this kind of infrastructure to deal with voter suppression, to deal -- to funnel funds, create new ways of fund- raising, new ways of supporting candidates.

There are all kinds of new organizations from Run for Something, Sister District, Spread the Vote. Women are just getting involved in all these different ways trying to address the inequities and broken parts of the system. And a lot of those people are very new to this kind of work.

HAYES: Yeah, the newness is what`s interesting to me. I mean, what have you been hearing from people that went from being, essentially, maybe more passive participants to sort of committing a huge part of their lives to it?

TRAISTER: Well, a lot of the women who have been passive in the past are white suburban women who, perhaps because of their own proximity to certain kinds of power and privilege, hadn`t been shocked into sort of an acknowledgment of the fact that the country`s politics were broken, were sort of shocked by bias and hate and misogyny and racism and xenophobia coming out of the Trump campaign in 2016, and then shocked by the fact that he won. Perhaps some of them who were Hillary Clinton fans or voters and who just assumed she was going to win were shocked out of their apathy at the fact that she lost.

And a lot of them have gotten a tremendous civic education in the past two years. They are learning about their local politics. They are engaged in their local politics. They are committed to local candidates. This is not just about a sort of, you know, banner presidential year politics, which is why their engagement in these midterms can be so crucial.

They`re coming up with new ideas about how to organize. They are talking to each other in their anger and shock. They have formed new networks and the beginnings of new coalitions. They are learning about some of the history of progressive activism. They are learning about, in some cases, their own racial and class privilege and the way that it has blinkered them in the past.

These are conversations I have had with women around the country in the past few weeks who I don`t think would have had these kinds of conversations three years ago, five years ago.

HAYES: You know, that point is really interesting because I`ve been watching interviews with some of the women who are sort of doing this volunteering, particularly in places like Orange County or suburban Virginia where you have a volunteer base that is largely white, relatively affluent, upper middle class women, whose -- it`s not just that they`re invested, it`s like their actual politics and world view is changing through the sort of experience of doing the work.

TRAISTER: Absolutely. They are learning things every day. And in many cases, because we have a roster, a historic number of women candidates, women of color candidates, candidates of color, candidates with progressive left politics, a lot of them find themselves in this position of doing work on behalf of black women, women of color running for office. They are turning to leadership to black women who have been involved in organizing for many years and they are learning from those women.

And that is a dynamic, for example, in Georgia that`s really key. A lot of the women who I went down and talked to around the Ossoff race in 2017 who were newly keyed up and very engaged in politics, but in that race they were working for a young white male candidate. Now, they are going all-out for Lucy McBath, for Stacey Abrams.

HAYES: And I want to say that Lucy McBath race, that is to me one of the most interesting in the country for the reason -- Jon Ossoff, we all watched that race. That was the big marquee special election match up, millions of dollars, Karen Handel/Jon Ossoff, Ossoff falls short. Lucy McBath, who has got an amazing story -- she lost her son to gun violence -- and is running in that same district is neck and neck, and not the candidate that would have been drafted by the Democratic Party political class a year ago and right now is right poised to maybe win that race.

TRAISTER: But this is a lesson, and it should be a lesson for all of us, and I think it`s something that so many of these -- this particular group of women that we`re talking about have been learning, which is that new kinds of candidates, candidates who are not traditional candidates, who a Democratic establishment wants to send forward, that these kinds of candidates can engage and lead.

The people who have actually been doing this work for decades before us, often women of color, often marginalized people who have been in the trenches, engaged long before 2016, are the people we might turn to for energetic and exciting and possible leadership going forward.

HAYES: Yeah, I`m going to -- that race I have my eyes on that race, is one of many tomorrow night. Rebecca Traister, thanks so much for being here.

TRAISTER: Thank you.

HAYES: Well, tomorrow has the feel of a presidential election, doesn`t it? I mean, even Trump says he`s on the ballot, and one way or the other Americans will probably be voting like he`s on the ballot. Michael Moore joins me just ahead.


HAYES: We`re less than 24 hours away from an election that will not own define the future of Trump`s presidency, but perhaps the entire country`s political landscape for years to come. To talk about this, I`m joined by Academy Award-winning filmmaker Michael Moore, whose latest documentary is "Fahrenheit 11/9."

Michael, your thoughts tonight?

MICHAEL MOORE, FILMMAKER: My thoughts are these. I`m assuming everybody who watches this votes. So good on you for doing that, but tomorrow we`re not going to win with just each of us voting. Everybody has to take five people to the polls or call 10 others, or if you can, take the day off, call in sick, blame it on me on Wednesday. I mean, whatever. But I`m very serious about this that everybody, everybody has to be in the game tomorrow all day long.

I`m going to do that. I`m going to be making calls to people who live in my congressional district, offering rides, doing whatever I can do. I`ll mow their lawn this summer, I`ll shovel snow this winter, whatever it takes. You have to get other people. You can`t just rely on you coming.

And I`ve said this before, don`t rely on the polls. I see the big Steve Kornacki board over there. I`m really tempted actually just to jump out of the chair and go touch it, but I`m not going to...

HAYES: Don`t touch the board, Michael. We talked about this. No one touches the board.

MOORE: I have learned my lesson from the one time it went -- we won`t talk about that.

But, no, I`m serious about this that you have to understand, The New York Times, they`re very honest lately about how they do their polling. Last week in the Texas Senate race, they polled 51,000 Texans to see how they could how they would vote, only 800 of them responded. They polled 7,200 young adults between 17 and 29, only 66 young adults respond to the poll.

HAYES: Yeah.

MOORE: So we know nothing. Tomorrow, we could -- this could be a historic crushing of the Republican Party and Donald Trump, or the Republicans could win and hold the House by one seat, one seat.

HAYES: One place -- I want to zoom in on something here, because one of the places that there was the biggest polling miss in 2016 where these are the Midwestern states.

MOORE: Right.

HAYES: So, if you look at Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, right?


HAYES: And something interesting has happened this year. I wanted to get your thoughts on it. So, those are all states that Trump carried. This year you`ve got incumbent Democratic senators in each of those state, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

And two years ago people thought, man, they`re in trouble, right. This is -- Donald Trump won these states. All four of those incumbent senators look to be doing pretty well in the polling averages. What do you make of that?

MOORE: Yes, I know for a fact that each of the four of them went to bed early tonight, that`s how relaxed they are, but we shouldn`t be.

Here`s what I make of it. I think that what`s going to happen in Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania tomorrow is essentially what happened two years ago with Trump. Things haven`t gotten better in the Rust Belt.

HAYES: Right.

MOORE: Things are still pretty bad. You were there. You`ve been there, more than once. The way that they use Trump as a Molotov cocktail in those states to blow up the system that had hurt them and not made their lives better, I expect them to do the same thing tomorrow, except in reverse fashion.

HAYES: Interesting.

MOORE: Things haven`t gotten better in the last two years under Trump. They know what that tax cut really was, and they haven`t seen any of the results of it. They know that their life is not better, and I think for the same reason, because they want change, and they`re going to keep throwing that Molotov until they get it.

HAYES: Interesting.

MOORE: And I think that may happen in those states. We may end up with four Democratic governors in those four states tomorrow, and I think, I hope, at least what I`ve seen in my state in Michigan, there is at least two or three house seats that have a good chance of being flipped, maybe more.

HAYES: Yeah...

MOORE: ...because -- what Rebecca was just saying to you, I do believe the possibility of an army, an avalanche of women and young people showing up to vote is going to be something that perhaps we`ve never seen before. It`s very possible that this is going to happen.

Here is the other thing that people in Michigan are doing to get out the Democratic vote, and the Republicans did it so well back in 2004 when they had like 14 states make it constitutionally illegal to marry someone of your own gender, and that really got out the vote for Bush. We have on our ballot tomorrow in Michigan two proposals, one to legalize marijuana, recreational marijuana, and number two, to outlaw gerrymandering and to change all the voting laws to make it easier for people to vote -- same-day registration, et cetera, et cetera.

These two ballot proposals are going to bring out a lot of young people. They`re going to bring out a lot of women. They`re going to bring out lot of people of color. They`re going to bring out essentially what is the majority of the state of Michigan -- women, young people and people of color make up about 65 to 68 percent of the state.

So, you know, we don`t know as we sit here, but I am feeling, you know, better than I did two years ago on this night.

HAYES: You know, I`ve -- I`ve been covering politics my entire adult life since I was 22, 23.

MOORE: Which was like, what, three years ago?

HAYES: I`ve seen only two other elections at least in this broad center left and the Democratic Party progressive coalition that I saw mobilization like this -- 2004 election.


HAYES: ...against Bush in which just everyone in a certain kind of sector of folks that were very politically engaged were doing things like knocking on doors, and 2008 with Barack Obama. I have not seen, just anecdotally in the worlds of people that are fairly tuned in, but not really anything like the mobilization that I`ve just seen anecdotally out there and as a reporter in the ten years since Obama was elected.

MOORE: That is correct. Just the fact that in Tennessee alone, there was a 700 percent increase in early voting amongst...

HAYES: Crazy.

MOORE: ...young voters between the ages of 18 and 35, 700 percent increase, 400 and some percent in Texas, 400 and some percent increase in Georgia.

HAYES: In Georgia.

MOORE: Yes, this all could portend well, but, but the Democrats are professionals at losing elections that they win or should have won. And we are up against Republican parties in many of these states that have so worked overtime to suppress the vote that it`s something that we have to take into account here. That`s why you can`t -- you can vote tomorrow, but you`ve got to bring five other people with you, or you`ve got to call 10 people or call 20 people. Make a party out of it. Make a nice lunchtime hour out of it. Have a viewing party tomorrow night and you only get in if you got an I voted sticker.

I mean, just encouraging people to make this a good thing and tell people you don`t want to miss out on this historic day. It could be a historic day.

HAYES: One thing we know from some of the political science literature on this is that peer pressure, social pressure, talking to people about voting is actually the most effective ways to turn people out to vote if they know that people they know on their block or people they are friends with are voting.

And the other thing I would say, and I know you have done this, but my life before being a journalist, it`s really interesting, and it`s a great civic education, whatever your politics are and whatever party you support to go knock on doors to talk to people and be around other people who are involved, particularly on election day when you`re just sitting around waiting otherwise.


HAYES: On the off chance you can get away from work.

MOORE: People should just, seriously, yes, just go out randomly. You don`t have to go to the campaign headquarters even.

HAYES: Careful, careful.

MOORE: I`ve done this before. Just go down -- if you live in an apartment building, just knock on doors, you do whatever it is you can do.

HAYES: Do you realize that every field organizer and voting targeter in every office is cringing right now as you give that recommendation.

MOORE: That`s OK, that`s because they know how to lose. And it`s time -- see, this is -- thank god we`ve got Alexandria, we`ve got Rasheedah (ph), we`ve got Stacey, we`ve got Andrew. We`ve got a whole new crop. And for the people who don`t usually vote, because you`re sick of voting for these people, this is not your grandfather`s Democratic ballot. These are new people that are running.

And people like you, not the old hacks, people like you. And, yes, you should go down your street and your apartment building, down your dorm rooms, wherever it is, wherever you are and knock on doors and get them out there to vote. You have to do this. And you have to trust that the American people agree with us, not the other side. And for the Democratic strategists who are freaking out hearing me say this, you`ve had a nice run. God bless you. We`re taking over now. Thank you.

HAYES: Just be careful wen you`re out there knocking on those doors in the apartment building.

Michael Moore, thank you very much.

MOORE: Yes, please.

HAYES: That is All In for this evening. Here from Dallas, the Rachel Maddow Show starts right now. Good evening, Rachel.


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