When Donald Trump threatened this morning to close the U.S./Mexico border "entirely," there was a certain misplaced logic to it: he's desperate to find some kind of leverage to force Congress to finance a massive border wall. Why the president added this tweet to the mix is less clear.
"Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador are doing nothing for the United States but taking our money. Word is that a new Caravan is forming in Honduras and they are doing nothing about it. We will be cutting off all aid to these 3 countries - taking advantage of U.S. for years!"
Even by 2018 standards, the logic behind Trump's plan is tough to understand.
Conditions for many in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador are so severe that many families are taking all kinds of risks to flee in search of a better life. Common sense suggests that if the American president wants more of these people to stay in their home countries, he'd want to improve conditions there and rehabilitate their governments.
Trump apparently intends to do the opposite.
I say "apparently" because much of what the president announces bears little resemblance to the policies his administration will actually implement. Trump declaring that the United States "will be cutting off aid" does not mean that the United States will be cutting off aid. As disorienting as this may be, in this White House, the president's words often have little practical meaning.
But even putting that aside, if Trump's tweet is a serious indication of future policy decisions, it's important to acknowledge the degree to which the president is prepared to ignore his own team's good advice.
The Washington Post's Greg Sargent recently wrote a good piece along these lines, highlighting some of the administration's plans that run counter to what Trump wrote this morning.
[W]e are now learning that the State Department is moving toward committing to spending $5.8 billion on a new "Marshall Plan" for Central American countries that is being championed by the new president of Mexico to address the migrant crisis at its source. It's unclear how much of this funding is new, and details are in short supply.But this is a glimmer of good news. It would spend great sums on creating jobs and economic opportunity in the Central American countries that have produced the recent migration explosion. As a Post editorial on this plan explains, our best hope of discouraging these migrations is to address the "massive opportunity deficit" in those countries, which could improve matters, while Trump's wall simply will not.
Greg also noted recent congressional testimony from Kevin McAleenan, the commissioner of Customs and Border Protection, who told lawmakers that financial support for economic development in Central America would be key toward addressing migrants fleeing their home countries.
Does Trump's tweet negate all of this? Who knows. Maybe Trump was blowing off steam; maybe he saw something on television that triggered him; maybe he'll tweet the opposite sentiment later today. This is our life now.
But if the president defies his own team's plans and takes aim at aid to Central American nations, he will almost certainly take a bad situation and make it considerably worse.
Postscript: Trump noted in his tweet this morning that he's heard rumors about "a new caravan" forming in Honduras. Consistent with his general approach to information, it's difficult to say with confidence whether that's based on U.S. intelligence, something he saw via conservative media, or just something he made up.