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Will election controversy in New Mexico become a criminal matter?

Those wondering whether it really matters when Republicans embrace the Big Lie should look no further than Otero County, New Mexico.

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New Mexico held primary elections last week, and the process was largely unremarkable. Candidates ran, voters participated, ballots were counted, and election results were announced. It couldn’t have been more routine.

With one exception.

My MSNBC colleague Ja’han Jones highlighted the unfortunate post-election developments that unfolded in Otero County.

The primary elections were held June 7. State law gives county officials no more than 10 days after an election to certify results. But over the last week, Otero County commissioners have repeatedly shown they don’t intend to do that. On Monday, they cited baseless allegations of fraudulent voting machines as their reason for not certifying last week’s primary results.

It’s worth emphasizing that the local Republican officials weren’t aware of any problems with the vote tallies or the local election equipment. Rather, they’d heard conspiracy theories about voting machines; they decided to believe those conspiracy theories; and they refused to certify election results based on their feelings.

One of the GOP county commissioners specifically said in her “heart,” she believed the machines could’ve theoretically been compromised, so she and her Republican colleagues refused to follow through on their duties.

This did not sit well with New Mexico’s secretary of state, Democrat Maggie Toulouse Oliver, who went to the state Supreme Court, asking the justices to order Otero County commissioners to certify the results. The Supreme Court wasted no time in agreeing: Yesterday, the justices directed the local officials to do their job by the end of the week.

At face value, the controversy is emblematic of a larger truth: Far-right conspiracy theorists now hold public offices in much of the country, and sometimes, they’re either indifferent toward democracy or overtly hostile toward it. Those wondering whether it really matters when Republicans embrace the Big Lie should look no further than Otero County.

What’s more, it’s worth pondering how many related controversies will unfold in the coming months and years. An Associated Press report described the mess in New Mexico as “a preview of the kind of chaos election experts fear is coming in the fall midterms and in 2024.”

The article quoted Jennifer Morrell, a former election official in Colorado and Utah who now advises federal, state and local officials, saying, “We are in scary territory. If this can happen here, where next? It’s like a cancer, a virus. It’s metastasizing and growing.”

This is true and it’s important. But I’m also interested in what, exactly, will happen in this area in southern New Mexico. Will Otero County commissioners certify the local election results by tomorrow?

As it turns out, there’s a scheduling problem of sorts: One of the local officials is scheduled to be in court tomorrow because he’s awaiting sentencing in ... wait for it ... a Jan. 6 case. Couy Griffin, the founder of Cowboys for Trump, was convicted in March for breaching the Capitol grounds during the Jan. 6 attack, and he faces up to a year in prison.

He’s now also expected to help certify Otero County’s election results, or risk defying an order from his state Supreme Court.

As for his local colleagues, Otero County Commissioner Vickie Marquardt — the one who said in her “heart,” the baseless conspiracy theories have merit — laughed this week at the idea of consequences for her actions. “They’re going to send us to the pokey?” she asked.

As it turns out, Marquardt probably shouldn’t have put it that way. New Mexico’s secretary of state told Rachel on the show last night that her office is making a criminal referral to the state attorney general’s office, seeking criminal prosecution.

Watch this space.