Why Trump needs voters to see Biden-era job numbers as ‘fake’

For Donald Trump, the economy isn’t just another issue. It’s more of a political life-preserver.

The former president is, after all, burdened by scandals, criminal indictments, and a record littered with countless examples of corruption, mismanagement, bigotry, and incompetence. But the Republican expects to persevere anyway, thanks in large part to public perceptions about Trump’s economic successes and frustrations with the economic status quo under President Joe Biden.

There are, however, some significant problems, including the fact that Trump’s economic record isn’t nearly as impressive as he likes to pretend. Complicating matters, three years ago, the then-incumbent repeatedly insisted that if Biden took office, the result would be economic ruin. We now know, of course, that Biden was elected, and his agenda has helped deliver economic growth, the lowest unemployment rates since the 1960s, and all-time highs in the major stock market indexes.

So, what exactly is Trump supposed to do with all of this good news?

In August, the likely GOP nominee released a video statement in which he told the public, in reference to positive data, “Any numbers that you see that are economically positive in the Biden administration are because they are running on the fumes of what we created years prior to their taking office.” In other words, voters might hear about the healthy Biden-era economy, but Trump wanted credit for it.

In New Hampshire on Saturday night, the Republican echoed the same line, again telling supporters that the Biden administration is “just running on the fumes of what we did.”

But a day in Nevada, the former president said something else that stood out for me:

This follows related rhetoric from September, when Trump said, in reference to the unemployment rate, that Americans are seeing “phony numbers.” He went on to describe the jobless rate as “crooked.”

Revisiting our earlier coverage, this rhetorical push will likely seem familiar to those who followed the 2016 race closely. That was the year in which Trump told voters that the unemployment rate wasn’t real, and Americans should trust him more than the official data.

Now, he’s doing it again.

But stepping back, it’s also worth appreciating the incoherence of Trump’s message. The Republican frontrunner wants voters to believe (a) Biden has created an “economic bust“; (b) Trump deserves credit for Biden’s economic successes; (c) Biden’s economic successes aren’t real; and (d) Biden will eventually cause an economic crash, the former president’s failed predictions notwithstanding.

What’s more, Trump is pushing each of these claims at the same time. He's doing so for the most awkward of reasons: Reality is taking away his political life-preserver, pushing him into a desperate scramble.

I don’t doubt that much of the electorate will fall for the nonsense, but that doesn’t make the GOP pitch any less ridiculous.

This post updates our related earlier coverage.