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Why Trump, despite the chatter, won’t become House speaker

Several House Republicans have already raised the prospect of Donald Trump succeeding Kevin McCarthy as speaker. This almost certainly isn't going to work.

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Ahead of the 2022 midterms, with Republicans optimistic about retaking the House majority, there was considerable conversation about who might become the next House speaker. Part of the discussion acknowledged the fact that the speaker doesn’t have to be a sitting member of the institution, which in turn led some to suggest Donald Trump should hold the gavel.

They weren’t kidding. Steve Bannon helped get the ball rolling on this idea, but he was soon joined by Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida and former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows. The former president himself, at least initially, left the door open, describing the chatter as “interesting.”

In time, however, Trump said he didn’t actually want the job, and though he did receive some support in early January, during the prolonged process that ultimately put the gavel in Kevin McCarthy’s hands, talk of putting the former president in the speaker’s chair ultimately faded away.

Now, evidently, it’s back. NBC News reported Tuesday night:

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., said in a tweet tonight that former President Donald Trump is the only speaker candidate she’s “currently supporting.” “We can make him Speaker and then elect him President!” she wrote. Earlier today, Rep. Troy E. Nehls, R-Texas, said he plans to nominate Trump for speaker.

I’ll confess that I haven’t done a comprehensive search, but I know of at least one additional House Republican — Greg Steube of Florida — who’s also expressed interest in electing Trump as McCarthy’s successor.

Meanwhile, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan told Fox News that while he wants Trump to be president, “if he wants to be speaker, that’s fine, too.”

The scuttlebutt grew louder after Fox News’ Sean Hannity told his viewers, “Now, sources telling me at this hour some House Republicans have been in contact with and have started an effort to draft former president Donald Trump to be the next speaker and I have been told that President Trump might be open to helping the Republican Party at least in the short term, if necessary.”

So, is this worth taking seriously? Almost certainly not.

One of the obvious problems with this scenario is that being House speaker is an incredibly difficult and time-consuming job, which Trump would absolutely hate. By all appearances, the Republican already has his hands full — the last time I checked, he’s the frontrunner for the GOP’s presidential nomination and a defendant in multiple legal disputes — and the idea of him taking on the duties of Congress’ top job is preposterous.

But there’s a less obvious problem, too.

As Democratic Rep. Sean Casten of Illinois was quick to point out, rule 26(a) of the House Republican Conference rules for the 118th Congress clearly states, “A member of the Republican Leadership shall step aside if indicted for a felony for which a sentence of two or more years imprisonment may be imposed.”

One need not take Casten’s word for it: The House Republican Conference rules for the current Congress are online and publicly available.

In case this isn't obvious, Trump has been indicted for multiple felonies, across multiple jurisdictions, and the potential sentences are well in excess of two years behind bars.

What’s more, it’s not just a party rule: As Casten went on to note, there’s a related rule that’s applied to the House itself.

In other words, Hannity told his audience that “some House Republicans have been in contact with” Trump about serving as speaker, and a few members have even publicly endorsed the idea, but without a rules change, this isn’t going to happen.