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It wasn’t national news, but there was a state legislative special election in Tennessee last week, and Democrats had every reason to be pleased with the results. Progressive community activist Aftyn Behn cruised to a lopsided victory, and she easily out-performed the Democrats’ national ticket in the district from the 2020 cycle.
Political Wire noted soon after, “In special elections so far this year, Democrats are outperforming by an average of 7.4 percentage points.”
This week, the news for the party was even better. A Democrat won a legislative special election in the Pittsburgh area, securing a Democratic majority in Pennsylvania’s state House, and on the same day, a Democratic candidate in New Hampshire flipped a state House seat from “red” to “blue.” The outcome was hardly assured: This was a district that backed Donald Trump in the 2020 cycle.
In isolation, these special-election results might not seem especially notable, but as ABC News reported, there’s a larger pattern to consider — and it’s not especially encouraging to Republicans.
... Democrats have been posting special-election overperformances of that magnitude all year long, in all kinds of districts. And on average, they have won by margins 11 points higher than the weighted relative partisanship of their districts. That’s more than just an impressive streak — it’s a potential sign of a Democratic wave election in 2024. In each of the past three election cycles, a party’s average overperformance in all special elections in a given cycle has been a close match for the eventual House popular vote in the eventual general election — albeit a couple of points better for Democrats.
As I’ve argued more than once, it’s still extremely early. Election Day 2024 is 410 days away, which isn’t exactly imminent. References to “waves” more than a year before anyone casts a ballot should be taken with several grains of salt.
But the ABC News report is rooted in uncontested details. Democratic candidates, in different parts of the country, haven’t just been winning special elections this year, they’ve scored victories by unexpectedly large margins.
Regular readers might recall that we saw similar results in special elections several months before the 2018 elections — a cycle in which Democrats took back the U.S. House and put up impressive popular-vote totals.
Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s former campaign manager, noted in February 2018 that Democrats were “winning elections in places where they shouldn’t be.” The same assessment could be made this year.
I’m mindful of the fact that national polling is offering the parties a murky picture, and the data has fueled Democratic anxieties. But the surveys aren’t the only metric to consider — actual election results matter, too.