As security aid bill clears the Senate, will the House GOP kill it?

It wasn’t easy, and the monthslong trajectory of the legislation was truly bizarre, but roughly two hours ago, a closely watched security aid bill cleared the Senate. NBC News reported:

As the dust settled on the bizarre process, 22 GOP senators ended up voting for the bill.

To quickly recap how we arrived at this point, senators were presented with Plan A last fall: a security aid package that provided support for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Republicans rejected it, saying they’d only support a bill that included a dramatic overhaul to the nation’s immigration and border policies.

That led to Plan B: a bipartisan compromise bill that gave GOP senators what they said they wanted. Republicans proceeded to kill the compromise plan they'd demanded and signaled support for a security aid measure that looked a lot like Plan A.

That bill has now cleared the upper chamber with 70 votes. An Associated Press report explained that the legislation doesn’t include the border reforms Republicans temporarily sought, but it does include security aid, funds for U.S. weapons systems, humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza, funds to target criminal organizations involved in the fentanyl production, and a grant program that helps non-profit organizations and places of worship make security enhancements in response to hate crimes.

“Today, we witnessed one of the most historic and consequential bills to have ever passed the Senate,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer declared after the legislation passed. “It’s certainly been years, perhaps decades, since the Senate has passed a bill that so greatly impacts not just our national security, not just the security of our allies, but the security of western democracy.

“As I have said, if we want the world to remain a safe place for freedom, for democratic principles, for our future prosperity, then America must lead the way. And with this bill, the Senate declares that American leadership will not waver, will not falter, will not fail.”

The comments were, to be sure, reassuring. Whether the Republican-led House is willing to make the same declaration about American leadership is another matter entirely.

Indeed, ahead of the Senate vote, House Speaker Mike Johnson issued a statement leaving little doubt that he fully intends to kill the bipartisan legislation — because it doesn’t include provisions related to the U.S./Mexico border.

Sen. Chris Murphy, who helped co-author a bipartisan bill that combined security aid and border reforms, was not pleased. “The speaker said he wouldn’t pass Ukraine funding without a border deal, and we got a deal, and then he killed the deal because he said we didn’t need a deal, and now he says he won’t pass our Ukraine funding bill because it doesn’t include a border deal,” the Connecticut Democrat wrote on social media. “Honestly. WTF.”

Murphy’s palpable frustrations are understandable. Johnson sought a bill that combined border reforms and security aid. Once a bipartisan compromise came together, he rejected a bill that combined border reforms and security aid. A week later, he’s demanding a bill that combines border reforms and security aid.

Let’s also note for context that as recently as last week, Donald Trump touted his preferred legislative strategy: “Don’t be STUPID!!! We need a separate Border and Immigration Bill. It should not be tied to foreign aid in any way, shape, or form!”

Perhaps House GOP leaders didn’t quite understand the directive.

So what happens now? If Johnson were to simply bring the Senate bill to the House floor, it would almost certainly pass. The speaker is no doubt aware of this, which is why he’s refusing to let House members consider the legislation.

The result is enormous uncertainty. Will House Republicans try to write their own alternative bill? Will House GOP leaders eventually change their minds and let members vote on the bipartisan Senate bill? Will a handful of House Republicans consider signing a discharge petition? Will the speaker try breaking the Senate bill into pieces, voting on individual provisions separately?

For now, no one knows for sure — but the clock is ticking. A Politico report added, “The [Republican] chair of the House Intelligence Committee is warning that time is running out for Ukraine in its fight against Russian invaders — and he’s pushing Speaker Mike Johnson to step up.”

Schumer concluded after the supplemental bill passed, “[T]hese past few months have been a great test for the U.S. Senate, to see if we could escape the constant centrifugal pull of partisanship and summon the will to defend Western democracy when it mattered most. This morning, the Senate has resoundingly passed that test.”

Whether the GOP-led House can pass the same test remains to be seen, though it’s difficult to be optimistic.