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In recent decades, there have been plenty of presidential primary debates that have turned messy for the candidates and their party, but this year, Republican officials are confronting a mess that’s unfolding before the event even begins.
The most notable problem for the party, of course, is the fact that the frontrunner for the Republican nomination is refusing to participate. Despite pressure and overtures from the Republican National Committee and Fox News, Donald Trump has not only decided to skip the debate, he’s also trying to undermine its viewing audience by counter-programming: The former president sat down with Tucker Carlson for an interview, which will be aired online tonight.
But as significant as Trump’s absence will be, this is not the RNC’s only problem. Politico reported:
The Republican National Committee announced late Monday night that eight candidates qualified for a spot on the debate stage this week. But those left off the list have a bone to pick with the committee. Businessperson Perry Johnson plans to take legal action. So does conservative radio host Larry Elder. And former Rep. Will Hurd says he thinks the RNC cherry-picks polls to count toward making the debate stage.
On the surface, the qualification process seemed relatively straightforward. Presidential candidates hoping to participate had to receive campaign contributions from at least 40,000 national donors, receive at least 1% support in three national polls (or two national polls and a poll from an early nominating state), and sign an RNC pledge to support the party’s eventual nominee, no matter who prevails in the primary process.
But just below the surface, the application of these standards has proven to be more difficult than expected.
Johnson, for example, recently announced that he’d qualified for the debate, only to learn in recent days that the RNC didn’t accept one of the polls that showed him with 1% support. The survey, from a firm called Victory Insights, polled respondents in 38 states — which the party said fell short of a “national” poll.
The wealthy Michigan Republican told Newsmax last night that he intends to sue the RNC, calling it, among other things, a “corrupt organization.”
Elder, meanwhile, also said he’d met the polling threshold, before the RNC said a survey from Insider Advantage had too small a sample size. The conservative talk-show host has also indicated that he’ll be taking the matter to court, accusing the party of having “rigged“ the rules.
Hurd has a tougher case — unlike Elder and Johnson, the former Texas congressman didn’t claim to meet the thresholds — though he’s raised concerns about the RNC’s policy of only counting polls of “likely” voters, as opposed to registered Republican voters.
“I’m tied with [Ambassador] Nikki [Haley] ... and Vice President [Mike] Pence in New Hampshire,” Hurd told Politico. “I’m close to hitting the 50,000 threshold, but they cherry-pick because they don’t want me on the stage.”
Finally, there’s Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who not only boasted about having qualified for the debate, but who also recently said candidates who failed to meet the thresholds should end their candidacies. The mayor nevertheless relied on a McShane LLC/American Wire News poll, which the RNC said failed to meet the party’s standards.
Soon after, Suarez quietly deleted online announcement about qualifying for the debate. As of now, the Miami Republican has not yet said anything about dropping out of the race, despite the standards he recently set.
As for the litigation, it’s easy to believe that Elder and Johnson will follow through on their threats to take their objections to court, though it’s more difficult to imagine their lawsuits having much of an impact. Watch this space.