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Why so many are keeping an eye on Sen. Lujan’s return date

Sen. Ben Ray Lujan expects to be back on Capitol Hill in “a few short weeks.” It’s a timeline with important implications.

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It was two weeks ago when the public learned that Democratic Sen. Ben Ray Lujan of New Mexico had suffered a stroke and undergone surgery. Obviously, the principal concern was for the senator’s wellbeing and recovery.

But for those keeping an eye on Capitol Hill, the secondary concern was over the impact Lujan’s absence would have on the Senate — and his party’s ability to govern.

The Democratic Senate majority only has 50 members in a 100-member chamber. With Lujan dealing with his medical crisis, the resulting arithmetic created a difficult dynamic: On any given day, there would be more Republican senators available to vote on the floor than Democratic senators, even though the GOP is in the minority.

Image: FILE PHOTO: Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee hearing on federal government coronavirus disease (COVID-19) response in Washington
Senator Ben Ray Lujan speaks during a Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee hearing in Washington on July 20, 2021.Stefani Reynolds / Pool via Reuters

Questions soon followed, not only about the Democrats’ legislative prospects, but also about the looming vote on President Joe Biden’s Supreme Court nominee. In theory, Senate Democrats need not worry about whether Republicans approve of Biden’s choice: Since judicial nominees can no longer be filibustered, Biden’s high court pick could be confirmed entirely with Democratic votes.

But with Lujan sidelined, it was a different story, which might even affect the White House’s selection process.

It was against this backdrop that the New Mexico senator offered the public an update on his condition yesterday. NBC News reported:

Sen. Ben Ray Luján, D-N.M., says he plans to return to the Capitol in time for a vote on a Supreme Court nominee after suffering a stroke late last month.... Luján, 49, said that after he leaves the hospital, he will continue his recovery at an in-patient rehabilitation facility.

“I am doing well, I am strong, I am back on the road to recovery,” Luján said in a video with his doctors from the University of New Mexico Hospital. “And I am going to make a full recovery. I am going to walk out of here and I am going to beat this. And I am going to be stronger once I come out.”

While the lawmaker did not give a specific date, he added, “I am proud to report then I will be back on the floor of the United States Senate in just a few short weeks to vote on important legislation and to consider a Supreme Court nominee. Now, rest assured, New Mexicans can know they will have a voice and a vote during this process. That has never changed.”

Lujan’s reference to “a few short weeks” suggested he might be on Capitol Hill again in early-to-mid March, which in turn should bolster the party’s prospects of confirming the next justice.

In the meantime, Senate Democratic leaders are focusing on relatively uncontroversial nominees and legislation that enjoys fairly broad support.

That said, Lujan’s stroke also serves as a reminder to his party: The Democratic majority in the Senate isn’t just tiny, it’s also fragile. The New York Times recently noted:

... Mr. Luján’s condition was a stark reminder that Senate Democrats — who serve in an institution where nearly half of all members are over the age of 65 — are never more than one sudden illness away from losing their working majority. It prompted some Democrats who have been agitating for Mr. Biden to move more swiftly to nominate and confirm a replacement for Justice Stephen G. Breyer to step up their calls for a pick sooner rather than later, before some other unforeseen event sidelines another Democrat at an inopportune moment.

There’s no reason to limit this focus to Supreme Court nominees. Yes, there’s obviously a reason to expedite the process of choosing Breyer’s successor, but by the same reasoning, there’s also reason for Democrats to expedite the Senate process for everything.