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Headed into the second round of balloting in the race for House Speaker, Jim Jordan’s allies engaged in an unsubtle campaign to lower expectations. In fact, just two hours before members started voting on the floor, Rep. Scott Perry turned to social media to make clear what was likely to happen.
“Just so there’s no surprises: Jordan will likely have FEWER votes today than yesterday — as I expected,” the Pennsylvania Republican wrote. “This is the fight — which Jim Jordan represents — to end the status quo, and it ain’t easy.”
What wasn’t clear was whether to take such talk seriously. Would GOP opposition to the far-right House Judiciary Committee chairman actually grow, or were the Ohio congressman’s allies simply trying to set the stage for a moral victory if Jordan didn’t lose any additional votes? Would it seem like a “win” if the official Republican nominee did as well as he did roughly 24 hours earlier?
Those questions were resolved by the final tally on the second ballot. The final tally: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries finished with 212 votes, while Jordan finished with 199. To succeed, a candidate needed 217.
Others receiving votes were former House Speaker McCarthy, who received five votes; former Rep. Lee Zeldin, who received three votes; and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who finished with seven votes. Former House Speaker John Boehner, Rep. Byron Donalds, Rep. Mike Garcia, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, Rep. Candice Miller, Rep. Kay Granger, and Rep. Bruce Westerman each received one vote.
It was a historic outcome: As NBC News reported, "Jordan’s 199 votes mark the first time in 100 years that the majority nominee got less than 200 votes. In 1923, Frederick H. Gillett, R-Mass., got 197 votes on the first ballot and it took him 8 more rounds of voting to eventually win."
As for who broke ranks, if my back-of-the-envelope notes are correct, these are the Republican members who ended up voting for someone other than Jordan:
- Don Bacon of Nebraska (voted for McCarthy)
- Vern Buchanan of Florida (voted Byron Donalds after supporting Jordan on the first ballot)
- Ken Buck of Colorado (voted for Emmer)
- Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon (voted for McCarthy)
- Anthony D’Esposito of New York (voted for Zeldin)
- Mario Diaz-Balart of Florida (voted for Scalise)
- Jake Ellzey of Texas (voted for Garcia)
- Drew Ferguson of Georgia (for Scalise after supporting Jordan on the first ballot)
- Andrew Garbarino of New York (voted for Zeldin)
- Carlos Giménez of Florida (voted for McCarthy)
- Tony Gonzales of Texas (voted for Scalise)
- Kay Granger of Texas (voted for Scalise)
- John James of Michigan (voted for Candice Miller after supporting Tom Cole on the first ballot)
- Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania (voted for John Boehner after supporting Scalise on the first ballot)
- Jen Kiggans of Virginia (voted for McCarthy)
- Nick LaLota of New York (voted for Zeldin)
- Mike Lawler of New York (voted for McCarthy)
- Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa (voted for Granger after supporting Jordan on the first ballot)
- John Rutherford of Pennsylvania (voted for Scalise)
- Michael Simpson of Idaho (voted for Scalise)
- Pete Stauber (voted for Bruce Westerman after supporting Jordan on the first ballot)
- Steve Womack of Arkansas (voted for Scalise)
The four votes that stand out most came from Reps. Buchanan, Ferguson, Miller-Meeks, and Stauber: These Republican members voted for Jordan on the first ballot, only to support someone else on the second.
The news wasn’t all bad for the Judiciary Committee chairman: Reps. Doug LaMalfa of California and Victoria Spartz of Indiana ended up supporting Jordan on the second ballot, after opposing him on the first, and Rep. Gus Bilirakis of Florida, who missed the first ballot, was in attendance and backed Jordan on the second. (Spartz’s shifting posture has been difficult to keep up with.)
The net result, however, was a loss for the would-be speaker: Jordan is worse off now than he was 24 hours ago.
As was the case after Jordan failed on the first ballot, the House recessed after the second, though it could be called back into session at any time.
What’s entirely unclear is what happens now. As an NBC News report summarized, “Most members are still in the dark about a path forward, as are many aides involved in this process.”
Jordan could keep fighting and call for a third ballot before day’s end. The GOP could call it a day and try again Thursday (tomorrow). Jordan could also conclude that the intraparty votes simply won’t materialize and it’s time for the party to find someone else.