By
Friday was not a normal day in the U.S. House of Representatives. It was a day in which House Republicans nominated House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan for speaker — two days after he lost a similar intraparty race — though he received only 56% support from the GOP conference, despite running against a relatively obscure member who did not campaign for the position and who publicly conceded that he didn’t actually want the job.
Ordinarily, this would clear the way for a floor vote, at which point the majority conference would put the gavel in its nominee’s hands, but Jordan and his allies were cognizant of the fact that he had plenty of Republican detractors — more than enough to block him from succeeding. To that end, the GOP conference held a second vote — what was referred to as a “validation vote” — intended to gauge how many members were prepared to oppose Jordan’s nomination on the floor.
It was at that point when Jordan learned that at least 55 members of his conference opposed his candidacy. He could afford to lose no more than four members if the right-wing Ohioan intended to prevail.
And so, instead of holding a floor vote, everyone simply went home.
This was not, however, a weekend for quiet reflection. As The New York Times reported, Jordan and his allies “have begun a right-wing pressure campaign against Republicans opposed to electing him speaker, working to unleash the rage of the party’s base voters against any lawmaker standing in the way of his election.”
It is an extraordinary instance of Republican-on-Republican fighting that underscores the divisions that have wrought chaos inside the party, paralyzing the House of Representatives in the process. Several of Mr. Jordan’s supporters have posted the phone numbers of mainstream G.O.P. lawmakers they count as holdouts, encouraging followers to flood the Capitol switchboard with calls demanding they back Mr. Jordan — or face the wrath of conservative voters as they gear up for primary season.
The report added that Jordan’s backers have identified the Republicans they see as standing in his way, and they’re encouraging far-right voters to “browbeat them” into submission.
The approach isn’t especially surprising — Jordan has spent his political career relying on bullying tactics — though it is qualitatively different from the recent norm. When Kevin McCarthy was concerned about shoring up GOP support for his bid, he agreed to a series of secret side deals. When Steve Scalise struggled to lock down the votes he needed, he held private meetings with skeptics, asking what he could do to satisfy their concerns.
Jordan and his allies, meanwhile, are adopting far more aggressive tactics. Instead of making offers, they’re relying on intimidation campaigns, hoping that House Republicans who don’t want to make the Ohioan speaker will ultimately be afraid not to.
What’s more, Jordan has some high-profile GOP voices in his corner: Not only is McCarthy backing the Judiciary Committee chairman — taking steps he was not willing to take on behalf of Scalise — but Jordan also has Donald Trump’s support. There’s even some evidence to suggest Fox News’ Sean Hannity has intervened to help Jordan, twisting lawmakers’ arms.
Will this work? For now, that’s a good question without a good answer. There’s been some reporting that Jordan’s GOP skeptics have been irritated by the hard sell, but Republicans from competitive districts have been known to fold under pressure before, and it’s an open question as to how many of the 55 members who opposed Jordan on Friday — in a secret-ballot election in which no one would know how they voted — will do so again in a recorded floor vote.
For now, the plan is to hold that vote Tuesday — as in tomorrow — and according to a Politico report, anti-Jordan members from within the House Republican conference are vowing to support a GOP rival to the party’s nominee. “While they have not yet nailed down a specific name,” the article added, “they believe the person they ultimately land on will not only be able block Jordan from the speakership, but also give cover to those who want to vote against him.”
Watch this space.
Postscript: It’s a far-fetched scenario, but there’s been some chatter in recent days about the partisan risks associated with a floor vote.
If one member gets a majority, he or she becomes speaker. If no one gets a majority, the race will go to a second ballot. But some have speculated that if Democratic turnout for the floor vote is 100%, it means House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will get 212 votes. If there are a significant number of GOP absences, it would lower the threshold for what constitutes a majority, and at least theoretically, Jeffries could become speaker by accident.
I don’t really think this will happen, and even if it did, Republicans would oust him soon after by way of a motion to vacate the chair. But it’s one more complication to keep in mind as the process moves forward.