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Every four years, I have conversations with people who know what I do — friends, relatives, neighbors, et al. — and they ask a familiar question: “Who’s going to win the presidential election?”
I always have an answer. To be sure, my answers aren’t always correct — I thought Donald Trump would lose in 2016, for example — but in my casual conversations, I’m happy to make my case for what I expect to happen based on the available evidence.
This year is different. I honestly don’t know what to think.
And the uncertainty is annoying.
On the one hand, the economy is surprisingly strong, thanks in large part to President Joe Biden’s agenda, and the United States has enjoyed the strongest economic recovery in the world. On the other hand, polls show roughly half the country believes economic conditions are “poor,” and even those who disagree aren’t giving the Democrat the credit he almost certainly deserves.
On the one hand, nothing matters more than actual election results, and in nearly every closely watched election of late, Democrats have prevailed. On the other hand, turnout totals will be vastly different in the fall, which makes this far from an apples-to-apples comparison.
On the one hand, Biden has an excellent story to tell, not only about the dangers posed by Trump, but also about his own record of accomplishments and successes. On the other hand, Biden does not excel as a communicator, and there’s little to suggest he’ll be able to change his skeptics’ minds.
On the one hand, Trump is a deeply unpopular figure, who’s lost the popular vote twice, and whose approval rating struggled to reach 50% throughout his failed White House tenure. On the other hand, Biden’s favorability ratings are no longer better than his GOP rival’s.
On the one hand, there’s still a ton of time between now and the start of early voting. On the other hand, throughout 2020, Biden led Trump in hypothetical match-ups, and that advantage no longer exists in most national surveys. What’s more, traditionally, incumbent presidents are in better shape at this point in the process than Biden is now.
On the one hand, Trump is plagued by some devastating recent scandals. On the other hand, much of the electorate doesn’t know that.
On the one hand, Trump is a suspected felon, and many Americans are likely to balk at the idea of electing an accused criminal — and by November, perhaps even a convicted felon — to the nation’s highest office. On the other hand, a noticeable number of voters genuinely seem to believe that Trump is a criminal, whom they intend to vote for anyway.
On the one hand, Biden and his operation appear to have a significant financial advantage. On the other hand, it’s difficult to know whether monied interests, fearing possible tax increases on the wealthy, will soon intervene on Trump’s behalf.
On the one hand, there are some lingering divisions in GOP politics following the primary process. On the other hand, history suggests that most of these voters will inevitably “return home” — that is, they’ll end up sticking with their party and ideology as Election Day draws closer — and there are at least some Democratic divisions of note, too.
On the one hand, Biden still enjoys sizable advantages on key issues, including health care and reproductive rights, which have been key issues in recent election cycles. On the other hand, polls suggest the top issues in 2024 are immigration and the economy, and for reasons that don’t make a lot of sense, Republicans enjoy big leads on both.
On the one hand, Biden is a very good president with a strong record, while Trump is widely recognized as the worst president in the history of the United States. On the other hand, both of these points have been evident for quite some time, and Biden appears to be trailing anyway.
All of which is to say, if we run into each other, don’t ask me who I expect to win. I’m finding it difficult to guess.