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There are all sorts of reasons Senate Democrats are facing a brutally difficult election cycle in 2024, mostly involving incumbents running in red states. Making matters worse is the limited number of options for pick-up opportunities next year: There just won’t be many vulnerable Senate Republican incumbents on the ballot.
But let’s not brush past the race in Texas too quickly. The Texas Tribune reported Wednesday morning:
U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, announced Wednesday he is challenging U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, for reelection. The third-term congressman made the announcement in a three-minute video posted on social media. The video touted Allred’s life story and congressional record — and took multiple shots at Cruz, including over his role leading up to the Jan. 6 insurrection and the trip to Cancun during the 2021 winter freeze.
“We deserve a senator whose team is Texas,” Allred tells viewers in the video. “Ted Cruz only cares about himself — you know that.”
At this point, I know what a lot of readers are thinking. “It’s Texas,” you’re saying to yourself. “Every couple of years, there’s all kinds of talk about the Lone Star State becoming more competitive, and every couple of years, Republicans run the table.”
And if that is what you’re saying, I’m sympathetic. A Democrat hasn’t won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. Texans re-elected Ken Paxton as state attorney general just last year — with relative ease — despite the fact that he’s facing multiple ongoing investigations and is currently under indictment.
To think that a congressional Democrat is going to win a Senate race in such a state is a tough sell.
But if I were trying to come up with the perfect candidate to run a competitive contest against Ted Cruz, he’d look a lot like Allred: We are, after all, talking about a fourth-generation Texan, former NFL veteran, former civil rights attorney, family man, and respected congressman — who managed to defeat an established GOP incumbent in 2018 by nearly 7 points.
He’ll be taking on a tough-to-like incumbent — who has voted against some of his own ostensible accomplishments and who doesn’t believe he should be allowed to seek a third term — who barely eked out a narrow victory in his last re-election campaign.
What’s more, Allred is clearly prepared to go right at Cruz, slamming the far-right senator on Day One of the campaign. “We don’t have to be embarrassed by our senator; we can get a new one,” the challenger tells viewers in his announcement video. He added, while standing on a football field: “I’ve taken down a lot tougher guys than Ted Cruz.”
I’m not saying Allred should be seen as some kind of front-runner. He’s facing tough odds, not just because it’s Texas, but also because 2024 is a presidential election year — which means that if the Democratic contender is going to prevail, he’ll likely need a chunk of voters who’ll end up supporting the GOP’s national ticket. That’s a tall order. (When Beto O’Rourke nearly beat Cruz in 2018, that was not a presidential election cycle.)
That said, if Cruz expected to cruise to a third term, Allred’s candidacy all but guarantees that he won’t. The Republican should be seen as the favorite, but if Allred doesn’t have the senator’s attention, he’s underestimating a serious challenger.