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In Democratic circles, there’s been considerable agita this week about some national polling showing President Joe Biden effectively tied with Donald Trump in hypothetical 2024 general-election match-ups. My general advice to Democratic voters thinking about climbing out on ledges is to wait — because it’s far too early to panic.
Indeed, The Washington Monthly’s Bill Scher recently flagged some polling data from years past that helped drive the point home. Around this time 12 years ago, for example, national polling showed Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama by a few percentage points. Around this time 18 years ago, national polling showed Bob Dole leading Bill Clinton by a slightly larger margin. Around this time 30 years ago, national polling found Ronald Reagan — who ended up winning re-election while carrying 49 out of 50 states — trailing some of his leading Democratic contenders.
In other words, relax. Election Day 2024 is 14 months away. It’s one thing to keep antacids lying around; it’s something else to start taking them a year too early.
That said, there was one bit of survey data that I was far less inclined to shrug off. As NBC News’ First Read team noted this week, “Of all the poll numbers we’ve seen over the past week, these results from the most recent Wall Street Journal national survey really jumped out at us.”
According to the poll, 40% of registered voters agreed with the statement that President Joe Biden has a strong record of accomplishments — which essentially matches Biden’s overall job-approval rating (at 42%). By comparison, however, 51% of voters in the same poll believe former President Donald Trump has a strong record of accomplishments — even though just 39% of all voters have a favorable impression of Trump.
I honestly have no idea why anyone would think the former president has a “strong record of accomplishments,” or why voters might think Trump had more accomplishments than Biden.
But these beliefs are wildly at odds with reality.
To be sure, there are different kinds of presidential records, and an administration’s successes can’t be measured entirely by legislative breakthroughs. That said, looking at bills signed into law, Biden has put together a string of achievements that rivals any modern president, with a record that includes the ambitious American Rescue Plan, a bipartisan infrastructure package, the historic Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, an expansion of veterans benefits in the PACT Act, the Respect for Marriage Act, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act — the first major legislation to address gun violence in nearly three decades — and necessary reform of the Electoral Count Act.
Trump’s most notable legislative accomplishment was an unpopular package of ineffective tax breaks for the wealthy and big corporations — and that’s about it.
What’s more, as regular readers know, Biden has had successes that had little to do with Capitol Hill. We finally saw a competent White House policy on Covid. And American leadership abroad in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And the end to the longest war in American history.
Trump, on the other hand, excelled at unilaterally abandoning sensible policies — the international nuclear agreement with Iran, the Paris climate agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, et al. — but there’s a policymaking difference between building up and tearing down, and the latter hardly qualifies as triumphs.
If voters genuinely believe that Biden has fewer accomplishments than his immediate predecessor, it suggests (a) much of the electorate is badly confused; and (b) the incumbent’s re-election campaign has an enormous amount of educating to do.