The special election for NY-3, aka George Santos’ old seat in the House, has been hyped as a predictor of what may happen in swing districts in November. Democrat Tom Suozzi ultimately pulled out the victory on Tuesday night, NBC News projects. But I’d argue it’s important to think of this election as a teachable moment for Democrats in swing districts, even as the GOP's slim majority in the House grows even slimmer. The issue of immigration is coming to the suburbs, and Democrats desperately need to find a way to defuse it.
The issue of immigration is coming to the suburbs, and liberals desperately need to find a way to defuse it.
Special elections are special for a number of reasons — most notably, because they are often very low turnout races, which means candidates must target the district’s most ardent voters. The 2011 special election to fill the seat left vacant by Rep. Anthony Weiner’s resignation is a perfect example of how unpredictable these contests can be, especially when they become nationalized. Democrat David Weprin was expected to beat Republican Bob Turner and replace Weiner, but ended up losing in a close contest that arguably became a referendum on President Barack Obama and American support for Israel.
Tuesday’s election should also have been more of a lay-up for the hand-picked Democratic candidate, former congressman Suozzi. Suozzi served as Nassau County executive in a county that represents approximately 80% of NY-3, and he already represented NY-3 in Congress, for six years, before the district lines were redrawn. This is also a district where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans.
In comparison, Mazi Pilip, the Republican pick to succeed Santos, is a relatively unknown county legislator. She immigrated from Ethiopia to Israel in 1991, where she served in the Israel Defense Forces. Shortly after marrying in 2005, Pilip immigrated to the United States; she is a mother of seven and an Orthodox Jew.
From the start, Democrats put abortion rights front and center in attack ads against Pilip. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dramatically outspent Republicans through the end of January. But in the final stretch, the race has been subverted by a viral video of migrants beating up two New York City police officers.
Immigration was the first, second and third issue Pilip ran on. She used her compelling story as a backdrop and remained absolutely disciplined. The ads placed by the National Republican Congressional Committee hammered the same message. Her first major news conference was held at a Queens migrant shelter. “Look around me,” Pilip told supporters. “Neighbors are scared, concerned and angry — and they should be.”
Suozzi tried desperately to prove his bona fides on immigration, going as far as crashing Pilip’s presser to offer a rebuttal. He also came out in favor of the Senate’s recent bipartisan border security bill, and pointed to a 2019 opinion piece co-authored with Republican Rep. Peter King laying out a set of immigration reforms. In this way immigration kept Suozzi on his heels, and he couldn’t find a way to flip the script to abortion.
As in every election, turnout is everything, and because 2024 is a presidential year, the results of the special election for NY-3 should not be looked at as a bellwether indicator. In 2022, Republicans won six congressional seats in New York districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020. That was huge, but it happened in a midterm election cycle. Notably, turnout was considerably higher for NY-3 in both 2016 and 2020, than it was in 2018 and 2022. Suozzi may also have been aided by winter weather on Tuesday, gaining an edge in early voting.
There is no doubt that women’s reproductive health care and the threat to our democracy are solid issues for Democrats, but none of that will matter if the Republicans can hijack the race with immigration and border security. No matter how seemingly safe the district, all Democrats need a better strategy to control the narrative. George Santos’ seat proves it.
