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How one county’s 2023 election could affect the entire 2024 presidential race

Bucks County, Pennsylvania, is a crucial suburban battleground and a textbook purple district.

On Tuesday, Bucks County, Pennsylvania, will elect its county commissioners. This three-person board oversees the board of elections, and is crucial in confirming election results in this pivotal swing county. The two Democratic incumbents, Bob Harvie and Diane Marseglia, are seeking re-election; facing them are GOP incumbent Gene DiGirolamo and fellow Republican Pamela Van Blunk. Voters choose two candidates, and the top three vote-getters become commissioners. The result could affect not just who supervises elections in one county, but the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

Bucks County is a crucial suburban battleground and a textbook purple district. Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden all won the county by less than 5%. The county’s congressional representative is Republican Brian Fitzpatrick, who frequently emphasizes his ability to collaborate across the aisle (despite constantly aligning with House Republican hard-liners).

Then-President Trump launched Bucks County into the national spotlight in 2020 when he attacked the Pennsylvania election results.

Furthermore, the county has become a national epicenter for the “culture war,” a battleground for debates over book bans and displays of pride flags. In 2021, the school board in the Central Bucks School District — the largest in the county and the third largest in the state — shifted toward a Republican majority amid disputes over mask mandates during the coronavirus pandemic.

The following year, the ACLU of Pennsylvania took legal action against the Central Bucks School District alleging discriminatory treatment toward LGBTQ+ students and their allies. This past summer, Moms for Liberty held their national convention in Philadelphia to remain close to the developments in Bucks County. The convention’s featured speakers included former President Donald Trump, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Ambassador Nikki Haley.

In addition to education-related controversies, reproductive rights have taken center stage in Bucks County following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Under Harvie and Marseglia’s leadership, Bucks County is one of the few counties in America taking legal action to protect women’s right to access prescription abortion pills. In stark contrast, their opponents, DiGirolamo and Van Blunk, staunchly oppose abortion rights and have consistently worked against efforts to ensure women have autonomy over their health-care decisions.

While Democrats in purple districts sometimes struggle to talk about crime and policing, Harvie and Marseglia have addressed these issues head-on. They’ve implemented smart crime prevention strategies such as expanded addiction treatment programs to help nonviolent offenders and a mental health co-responders program that places social workers within police departments. These initiatives have earned endorsements from local progressive groups as well as the Philadelphia Fraternal Order of Police, the state’s largest FOP lodge.

Issues surrounding voting rights and strengthening democracy have also moved to the forefront of the election. Then-President Trump launched Bucks County into the national spotlight in 2020 when he attacked the Pennsylvania election results. Trump repeatedly urged the county’s commissioners not to certify the election results, resorting to 11 lawsuits to overturn the outcome. Despite the pressure, the Democratic majority in Bucks County approved the legitimate results. “During that time, we understood we needed to do everything we could to count votes in a democracy,” said Harvie, who was on the board of commissioners during the 2020 election. “We were challenged on this front and won every one of these challenges.”

Those voters who do show up will determine a race that not only affects the county, but the national political landscape.

Since then, the Democratic commissioners have implemented drop boxes and other measures to facilitate mail-in voting. Nonetheless, the integrity of the 2024 election continues to raise significant concerns. Van Blunk has strong connections with Bucks County GOP Chair Patricia Poprik, who serves as Van Blunk’s campaign spokesperson. Poprik has also been identified as a fraudulent elector, backing Trump’s efforts to alter the election outcome. If Trump or any other Biden opponent attempts to repeat the post-election lies of 2020 in 2024, a Republican-controlled board of commissioners would undoubtedly be more receptive.

It’s unlikely that Tuesday’s election will see as big a turnout as a year from now. And yet, those voters who do show up will determine a race that not only affects the county, but the national political landscape. The suburbs of Pennsylvania played a vital role in securing Biden’s victory in the state in 2020, and they are likely to play a crucial role again in 2024. The integrity of the Bucks County’s Board of Commissioners hangs in the balance. As we move closer to the 2024 election, voters must prevent anyone with ties to the MAGA movement from overseeing this critical electoral process.