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Even the GOP pollsters see trouble for Mitch McConnell in November

It’s been a rough week for Sen. Mitch McConnell.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) (C) leaves after talking with reporters at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 28, 2014 in Washington, DC.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) (C) leaves after talking with reporters at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 28, 2014 in Washington, DC.

It’s been a rough week for Sen. Mitch McConnell—Texas Sen. Ted Cruz forced Republican leadership to side with Democrats on the debt ceiling, leaving McConnell to face the ire of the far-right—and back home in Kentucky, re-election polls aren’t offering much of a respite.

The latest poll—conducted by Republican pollster Wenzel Strategies—sees the Senate minority leader in trouble with his Democratic opponent, state Secretary of State Allison Lundergan-Grimes. McConnell leads by just one point earning 43% of support compared to Grimes’ 42%—a lead that falls within the poll’s three-point margin of error.

McConnell, who was elected to the Senate 30 years ago this November, is facing his toughest re-election battle yet, thanks to challengers from the left and right.

Republicans are hoping to retake the Senate in 2014. The Washington Post recently calculated that they had a 54% chance of doing so, though they don't consider the possibility that McConnell will lose this November.

The poll also found voters’ minds made up about the longtime incumbent—just 3% had no opinion on McConnell—and saw more room for growth with the relative political newcomer Lundergan-Grimes, with 20% of voters not sure what they thought of Grimes. 

This poll, with its partisan tilt toward the incumbent, isn't as bad as it gets, either. A nonpartisan survey released earlier this week saw McConnell in even bigger trouble, with Grimes trumping McConnell by four points.