Summary
MSNBC`s continuing live coverage of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Justice Department is expanding the number of people it is investigating over January 6, and it`s getting closer to Donald Trump`s inner circle. President Biden announced today a plan to push oil prices down by releasing a million barrels of oil a day from the National Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months.
Transcript
CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST: Yeah, you may not be interested in the cultural or but the cultural war is interested in you. Mark Joseph Stern, thank you very much.
MARK JOSEPH STERN, AUTHOR: Thanks so much for having me.
HAYES: That is "ALL IN" on this Thursday night.
THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW starts with Ali Velshi right now.
Good evening, Ali.
ALI VELSHI, MSNBC HOST: Thanks, Chris.
And thanks you at home for joining us this hour. Rachel is on hiatus. I am joining you once again tonight from the city of Lviv, Ukraine.
Now, we`ve got a lot to get to tonight and just a few moments, I`m going to speak with the Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, about the military situation on the ground here in Ukraine.
We`ll also be joined by the former top Russia expert on the National Security Council, Fiona Hill.
And we`re going to get some expert help understanding the latest revelations about the U.S. Justice Department widening its investigation into January 6 and inching closer to Donald Trump`s inner circle.
But we start tonight about 300 miles from here, just 50 miles north of Ukraine`s capital Kyiv, at the site of the worst nuclear site disaster in history, Chernobyl. Thirty-six years ago, an explosion at the Soviet nuclear reactor there sent a cloud of radioactive particles across the region. An area stretching for miles around the plant has been radioactive ever since. People are not allowed, still to this day, into certain parts of what is called an exclusion zone.
Now, just a couple years after the disaster, NBC News science correspondent got to take a brief trip inside to see the aftermath.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NBC CORRESPONDENT: Pripyat, which had been the home of 50,000 people, plant workers and their families, is now deserted. Helicopters pass overhead to measure the radioactive activity, which is still several hundred times more than normal, but millions of times less than what it was in the days after the accident.
Also deserted is the town of Chernobyl, and farm villages and the surrounding the area several hundred square miles. Two years ago, this was a thick forest of pine trees. Now, only one tree stands, but this tree too is dying.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: Now, that thick forest of pine trees came to be called the red forest, because of all the reddish color basically. The pine trees turned into as they died from the high levels of radiation. The entire forest was also bulldozed and buried. And when NBC News returned to Chernobyl on the 20th anniversary of the disaster, vegetation there was still highly radioactive.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PRESTON MENDENHALL, NBC NEWS CORRESONDENT: While radiation levels have returned to normal in some parts of the 18-mile safety zone around and now close reactor, there is still plenty off limits.
The radiation varies wildly. Here it is elevated, but not too high. If I walk over here just a couple of feet and put this down, it jumps ten times. Part of the reason is this moss concentrates radiation.
Twenty years after the nuclear catastrophe, Chernobyl is still a forbidden land.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: That was 16 years ago, and it is still a forbidden land, particularly the red forest. It remained so radioactive that not even highly trained workers at the nuclear plant which is still in operation or law to go in.
But when Russian forces came steaming into Ukraine five weeks ago, tonight, one of the first things they did was seize the Chernobyl nuclear plant. And according to workers at the nuclear plant, those Russian troops came rolling in right through the red forest.
Two workers told "Reuters" that they watched a convoy of Russian military vehicles drive in on an abandoned road right through the red forest, kicking up a big column of radioactive dust and setting off multiple radiation safety sensors.
The workers called the Russian movement suicidal, because the dust the Russian soldiers inhaled was likely to cause internal radiation to their bodies. The workers told "Reuters" that none of the Russian troops wore any protective gear during the weeks that they spent at the plant with them. When they asked the Russian soldiers if they knew about the 1986 nuclear disaster in Chernobyl, quote, they do not have a clue. They had no idea what kind of facility there are at, end quote.
Well, today, the Russians handed Chernobyl back to the Ukrainians at the five weeks. Ukrainian officials say two columns of Russian forces left the plant and headed north toward Belarus.
Why have they pulled out? Well, according to Ukraine state power company that runs the Chernobyl plant, at least some of the Russian troops began suffering from radiation sickness after digging trenches in the contaminated red forest. And once the illness began, they packed up and fled.
[21:05:02]
Now, obviously, we have no way of confirming that account from Ukrainian officials, but it would certainly fit with everything we know thus far about Russia`s botched ground invasion. Inexperienced troops with limited knowledge of the mission and nuclear orders.
Today, the chief of Britain`s Signals Intelligence Agency said that morale among Russian troops is miserable, and that they refused orders, sabotage their own equipment and even accidentally shot down one of their own aircrafts. The Ukrainians say that any drawn out of Russian forces around Kyiv, in places like Chernobyl and nearby Chernihiv isn`t a peace offering. It is just because the Russians are being beaten by the Ukrainians or potentially sickened by radioactive dust that they did not even realize they were kicking up.
Meanwhile, today, both the Pentagon and NATO said that Russian troops are not withdrawing from areas around the capital. They will be regrouping and repositioning for the next phase of their assault. That next phase may be the focus on Ukraine`s east, trying to finally capture cities like Kharkiv and Mariupol, cities that Russia have already devastated from the air.
But no one really believes that Vladimir Putin is finished with Ukraine`s capital. And as Sky News` Alex Crawford reports tonight, even in the Kyiv suburbs where Ukrainian forces have won some of the pivotal victories, residents expect that the Russians will be back.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ALEX CRAWFORD, SKY NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Irpin is still far from safe, and we were taken into the town at speed with armed guards. This is the closest the Russians have gotten to the capital, just a few kilometers away. This is where they fought some of the most savage street battles. The fighting and bombing went on for more than a month, in parts of the town, there is hardly a building or home that is untouched.
Ukrainian soldiers are still very much on red alert here.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Stop.
CRAWFORD: We are way through, but they are extremely worried about any mines or traps the Russians may have left behind. This is what is left of much of Irpin, what terror must of been felt that those living in these apartment blocks as shell at the shell came raining in, murder after mortar, and heavy artillery?
The places littered with unexpected ordinance, in playgrounds, and residential courts, nowhere was off limits and there was no mercy shown for Irpin residents.
People obviously try to pack their cars to get out of here as the shelling came in. You can see the streets strewn with belongings as they tried to get out, but the shells were coming in and hitting even the vehicles as they tried to escape.
There is still retrieving the many dead here. The exact numbers that have died will take some time to confirm, with survivors talking of burying relatives and friends in parts and playgrounds during the month-long bombardment. It is no wonder any of these reports are still alive. The last few to be brought out show terrible signs of suffering and pain.
"Have you gotten apple?" he ask us. He looks very gaunt, and his feet are in a terrible state. Most of the town`s infrastructure has been bombed, so he and the others had no electricity, little food and water, and constant shelling infighting.
"When did you last eat?" we asked. "Three days ago," comes the reply.
We found a few hardy residents who managed to stick it out to the very worst. The near constant attacks have seen the town virtually emptied. With all those we spoke to believing the Russians will be back, maybe to Irpin, certainly to take the capital again.
All their lives have been altered beyond comprehension. Yet as we left, those remaining still showed the incredible defiance and fortitude.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: Sky News` Alex Crawford in the Kyiv suburb of Irpin. It`s the perfect illustration of the devastation that Russian forces are leaving behind even when they are losing.
The one question that U.S. officials have been raising this week is whether Vladimir Putin even knows about the losses his forces have been suffering in places like Irpin. They say declassified U.S. intelligence suggests that Putin`s military hasn`t been honest with him about what`s happening on the ground because they`re afraid to tell him the truth. I mean, obviously, Putin knows there is a problem because Ukraine isn`t conquered yet.
But if morale is low and there is a lack of communication all the way up the chain of command, it may be very hard to predict what this next phase of the invasion is going to look like.
Joining us now is Pentagon press secretary and retired rear admiral, John Kirby.
Admiral Kirby, we appreciate you making time to be with us this evening.
The Kremlin today is pushing back on the claim from U.S. intelligence that President Putin`s aides aren`t being honest with him about what is happening on the ground in Ukraine.
[21:10:07]
Tell me about the concern you got if that`s true? If Vladimir Putin is not receiving on his battlefield intelligence from his advisers, what does that mean?
JOHN KIRBY, PENTAGON PRESS SECRETARY: Well, one thing it could mean is that once he does become fully informed, he might overreact. I mean, he has already escalated this con -- this conflict, you don`t have to look any further than the dreadful images that are coming out of places like Mariupol and Kyiv, to see how hard he continues to strike Ukrainian citizens and Ukrainian cities.
So, he can maybe overreact, if he -- if he is not being fully informed. We don`t know what he`s going to do when he finds out the full scope of his military failures inside Ukraine.
The second thing that`s concerning, disconcerting for us is what would -- what does this mean for the negotiating table? If he is not in fully informed about how poorly they are doing on the ground, then it could definitely affect the negotiating tactics at the table and the degree to which he`s able, even if -- even if he`s willing, the degree to which he`s able to negotiate in good faith with the Zelenskyy government.
VELSHI: OK. So, that`s one valid concern. Is he going to a negotiating table or his people going there with correct information? What you`ve also been particular in describing Russia`s movements in and around Kyiv as repositioning, as opposed to de-escalation which is what --
KIRBY: That`s right.
VELSHI: -- the Russian negotiators suggested the other day in Istanbul.
What`s the latest intelligence that you can tell us about -- about troops and what they`re doing around Kyiv? Are they -- is there any indication that they`re repositioning versus pulling back and refocusing on eastern Ukraine?
KIRBY: What we have seen is a small number, less than about 20 percent of what we assessed is there assembled force around Kyiv, moving away around the city, move towards north. It`s not exactly clear where they`re going to go, how long they`re going to be there, or what the ultimate purpose is? But we don`t believe is that he`s planning to send them home, because the majority of the troops that he still has around Kyiv are still there in Kyiv.
Now, they are in defensive positions. They`re not moving on the city. But the city is still coming under airstrikes and missile strikes every single day. So, what we think he`s going to do is refit these troops, resupply them and put them back into Ukraine for offensive operations somewhere else.
Now, again, we don`t know exactly where, we don`t know exactly when. All we can do is go by our other assessment that the Russians are trying to prioritize that Donbas region, the eastern part of the country. So, it`s possible that some of these troops will just simply be moved from Kyiv over to the Donbas to try to reinforce their offensive operations there.
VELSHI: There is also new reporting -- you know, a month ago, we had word about a fire at a nuclear plant in Zaporizhzhia. Now, there`s -- this is a massive concern all around Europe, not the least Ukraine. There is reporting today that Russia is pulling back from Chernobyl because of radiation exposure.
KIRBY: Yeah.
VELSHI: You seemed to suggest that today`s briefing that it`s not necessarily radiation exposure that might be causing them to pullback. What more can you tell us about that?
KIRBY: Well, what we think is that -- we do sense -- assess that some of their troops are leaving Chernobyl, the general assessment is that this is all part of, again, this repositioning effort. We have no indication that it`s -- that there`s a radiation problem or health hazard at this time.
Look, we`re going to continue to watch this and monitor this as best we can. But our best estimate, our best assessment at this point is that it`s part of his repositioning effort, the ability to take troops out of some area and then move them into another area.
VELSHI: Today, the head of Britain`s GCHQ, which is the British equivalent of America`s NSA, said that some Russian troops are refusing orders, some might be sabotaging their own equipment and there was one report of shooting down their own aircraft.
I guess my question to you is, do you understand whether that dynamic is going on amongst Russian forces? And does the Pentagon believe this is happening wide scale, or is this something that is largely very specific and isolated?
KIRBY: Yeah, I can`t confirm every item in that British reporting about the -- about shooting down aircraft and everything that they put in there.
That said, Ali, what we have seen is poor unit cohesion, poor morale, poor leadership. We`ve got plenty of anecdotal evidence that at times and at places, Russian soldiers have simply given up, they simply walked away from the fight. That -- that they have, in some cases, actually sabotaged their own vehicle so that they would run out of fuel and not be able to replace that fuel.
We know that they have had morale and unit cohesion problems born, we think, largely out of the fact that it`s a conscript force. They are draftees. These are young men who, in many cases, had no idea that they were going to be invading another country.
[21:15:03]
They thought they were going on a training exercise and they clearly weren`t fully prepared and ready for actual combat.
So, we know they`re having problems like that. They are also having leadership issues, command and control. Not only the ability of their generals to talk to one another, but the willingness to talk to one another and to coordinate their operations between say, air and ground. There is very little of that joint effectiveness that you would expect from a modern military these days.
VELSHI: Admiral, I just want to explore this a little more with you because of your long military expertise. Tell me about that -- that distinction in morale where we`re seeing these Ukrainian troops who, going into this thing, did not look like they were well-equipped to take on one of the largest armies in the world, but the morale of those troops seems to be different from the morale of the Ukrainian troops.
Tell me how that plays out when you`re commanding troops.
KIRBY: Yeah. Morale is not to be underestimated in the military unit. It can be a terrific force multiplier. And by that, I mean, it can -- it can actually add exponentially to a unit`s effectiveness on the field of battle or at sea, on warships. The way a unit feels about itself, about its effectiveness, its competency, about the teammates, about themselves, all of that can have a huge impact on effectiveness and efficiency in battle and in combat.
We`re not seeing that on the Russian side. And we have plenty of anecdotal evidence, as I said that they`re not fighting well, that they`re not fully informed. They`re even having trouble still feeding their troops, and fueling their vehicles. I mean, there`s a lot of problems that the Russians have caused on themselves.
On the Ukrainian side, however, morale is very high. Now, they are, too -- they`ve taken losses. They`re suffering. They`re watching their friends and their families have to leave. They`re seeing their cities destroyed.
And yet, this has really fired them up. They`ve got an esprit de corps. They`re getting the weapons and the systems that they need to fight back effectively and they`re using those weapons.
And they`ve been very agile, very nimble on the battlefield, choosing when and where and how they`re going to defend, and how they`re going to strike in very, very devastating ways for the Russian military.
VELSHI: Let`s talk about those weapons that they`re getting. The U.S. has already supplied Ukraine with a lot of lethal weaponry, more arriving every day. But if this war grinds on for months, is the Pentagon willing to and in a position to continue supplying Ukraine`s -- Ukraine with weapons to fight Russia at the current pace that we are doing?
KIRBY: President Biden has been very clear that we`re going to continue to support Ukraine`s ability to defend itself, as long as we can, and as fast as we can. And you`re right, there is material arriving even as you and I are speaking, and that`s coming on the last package that the president approved, the $800 million security package that he approved just a little more than a week ago.
There`s already been half a dozen or so shipments of that material getting into the region. We`re going to work to get it into the hands of the Ukrainians as fast as we can. And I would add that while we`re focused rightly on the security assistance, the material, we also need to remember that training. For the last eight years, the United States, Great Britain, Canada, other allies have been devoting a lot of training into Ukrainian armed forces to help them use this material.
So, it`s not just about the stuff. It`s about the way they use this stuff and how they know how to use these weapon systems. And that came -- that came at a great effort by so many allies to help train them over the last eight years.
VELSHI: U.S. intelligence on this has been fairly accurate since even before this invasion started. There was one thing, though, that was an estimate that it would -- it would not be long. If Russia threw everything it had and all those troops that it had lined up, this would end sooner than it has. We`re now in the sixth week of this war.
KIRBY: Yeah.
VELSHI: And one of the enduring mysteries is the airspace above Ukraine.
KIRBY: Right.
VELSHI: For outside observers, they`ve been curious as to why the Russian air force has not been able to achieve air superiority. What`s your -- what`s your take on this?
KIRBY: One of the reasons is because of how nimble the Ukrainians have been with their air defense systems. They have short and long range air defense systems. They`re using them very effectively and quite efficiently.
They`re being very careful about how they`re defending their skies. And they have been able to make it very difficult for Russian pilots to fly inside Ukrainian airspace.
In fact, most air strikes that you`re seeing, the damage that you`re seeing, most of those airstrikes are actually emanating and never coming -- and the aircraft are never leaving Russian airspace or Belarusian airspace. They are not venturing in to the Ukrainian airspace and if they do, they`re not staying very, very long.
And, of course, a lot of the airstrikes are missile strikes. They`re being watched from airfields and from sites inside Russia or Belarus. The Ukrainians have been very, very effective in how they are trying to defend their skies. We assess that the skies are contested.
[21:20:01]
Here`s the other thing, we`re also working with other allies and partners who have long range air defense systems that we know the Ukrainians know how to use, like the S-300, and we`re trying to work with them to see if they can provide some of those systems to help replenish the stocks to the Ukrainians.
VELSHI: Admiral, to the extent that Russia has said and might be re -- you know, refocusing some of its efforts on eastern Ukraine, which is where this all started, what are your concerns about that?
KIRBY: Well, this is an area that`s been -- it`s been a hot war for eight years, Ali. I mean, this is -- this is a piece of ground that Russia has long coveted and long wanted. We think they certainly overextended themselves in the early weeks of this conflict, attacking on multiple lines of axis, north, south, east, trying to take the capital city, and they`ve realized that they`re not going to do that.
So, now, it looks like they`re going to redouble their efforts in the Donbas region, which they`ve been fighting over now for eight years. It`s unclear whether this is a negotiating tactic, Mr. Putin just wants to get some more leverage at the table because he`s got more ground in the eastern part of the country, or whether that is, in fact, now a more limited goal he`s trying to achieve, just get the Donbas region, get that land bridge to Crimea, and call it a day.
We`re just not sure where -- where they intend to go on this. But one thing we know for sure, there are lots of Ukrainian forces in that part of the country and they are still there, and they`re still fighting very, very hard. The Russians have not been able to take that Donbas region.
Now, we`ll see if they`re going to redouble their efforts, if they`re going to add reinforcements. We think that that`s what`s in their minds. But believe me, the Ukrainians are going to have -- they`ve made very clear, not just in word but in deed, that they`re going to continue to fight for that part of their country.
VELSHI: Retired Rear Admiral John Kirby from the Pentagon, we appreciate your time. Thanks for joining us, sir.
KIRBY: Yes, sir. Good to be with you.
VELSHI: OK. Much more ahead here tonight, including new reporting about how the Justice Department`s expanding its investigation into January 6. And, next, we`re going to talk with someone who`s advised three presidents on Russia and was a witness in one of their impeachment hearings. Fiona Hill joins us live after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[21:26:19]
VELSHI: As Ukrainian and reflection peace negotiations are set to resume talks tomorrow, whether Ukraine can trust what Russia is saying that any moment is a real live wire issue. There is what Russia says it`s doing, and then what Russia is actually doing. This is an article that the defense state run Russian news agency TASS put out after Tuesday`s negotiations in Istanbul. Quote, the Russian Ukrainian talks that took place in stumble were constructive, the head of the Russian delegation told reporters, he said that Moscow made two de-escalatory steps. One was offering to hold a meeting between Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy, and two, that Russian troops would drastically reduce their activities toward Kyiv and Chernigov, which is what the Russians call the Ukrainian city Chernihiv.
As far as we can see and step number two, there has been no drastic reduction of Russian military activity in cities like keep. This was the NATO secretary general`s assessment of this afternoon.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JENS STOLTENBERG, NATO SECRETARY GENERAL: According to our intelligence, Russian units are not withdrawing but we positioning. Russia is trying to regroup, resupply, and reinforce, its offensive in the Donbas region. At the same time, Russia maintains pressure on Kyiv and other cities. So, we can expect additional offensive actions bringing even more suffering.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: Ukrainians have approach these negotiations from the get-go with a healthy amount of mistrust. The Ukrainian foreign minister even warned negotiators not to each, eat, drink, or talk to anything while meeting with their Russian counterparts for fear of poisoning. But at the end of the day, there`s only one person in control of what Russia does here, and that`s Vladimir Putin, an authoritarian who is not always known for his adherence to the truth.
But regardless of Russia`s track record or trustworthiness, these negotiations are not something that Ukraine can afford to write off. Ukrainians cannot get tricked into giving Russia time to regroup and gaining strategic military advantage. But at the same time, Ukrainians want peace and distasteful as it is to negotiate with an aggressor, for the moment, without that no-fly zone that Ukraine is begging NATO for, it may be the only viable route available.
Again, the next round of these talks will continue via video conference tomorrow. So how should we be looking at them.
Our next guest, Fiona Hill, was a key witness in President Trump`s first impeachment trial, the trial about Trump withholding military aid at a White House meeting with President Zelenskyy in an effort to extort Ukraine into announcing a fake investigation into Donald Trump`s political opponent, Joe Biden. Fiona Hill has also advised each of the past three presidents, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump, on U.S.-Russia relations.
And I`ve got a ton of questions for her. Thankfully, she joins us now.
Fiona Hill is the former White House adviser on Russia. She`s the author of "There is Nothing For You Here: Finding Opportunity in the 21st Century".
Dr. Hill, thank you for joining us tonight. It`s good to see you again.
FIONA HILL, FORMER WHITE HOUSE ADVISER ON RUSSIA: Likewise, Ali. Good to see you, too.
VELSHI: There is an independent pollster in Russia, Levada Center, which released a poll today which shows 83 percent of Russians approve of Vladimir Putin`s actions in Ukraine. Now, this is up from 69 percent by the same pollster in January.
[21:30:02]
I know that polling in an authoritarian state like Russia has to come with a very big grain of salt, but the dissatisfaction of the Russian people has been influential in the past, including in Afghanistan.
How do you read this polling or do you ignore it entirely?
HILL: Well, you can`t ignore it. What it`s telling us it`s a couple of things.
First of all, it`s completely consistent with the propaganda efforts at home by the Russian government. Remember, right from the very beginning, this is not being portrayed as a war. They are in fact criminal penalties that could be applied to anybody who uses the word war. The term is special military operation.
And for months, if not years, Putin and the Kremlin have been explaining to the Russian people that this is necessary, this kind of intervention, because of the nature of the Ukrainian regime, all these accusations about Ukraine being run by Nazis, evoking the kind of struggles that the Russian people were engaged in during World War II, for example. And the whole depiction of the war in the Donbas region that you have been talking about as being pretty much driven by aggression by Ukraine, a lot of focus on casualties in Donbas.
Even now, the depictions of casualties in Ukraine are being blamed on the Ukrainians themselves, using civilians as hostages, for example. There`s a widespread view in Russia as a result of all this propaganda that the United States, the West, and NATO, are all responsible for forming this conflict in the first place.
So this is in fact a project of that propaganda. And then there is also the linkage with Putin himself. Putin`s been in power, as well now know, for 22 years. He`s become coterminous with the state. Asking people about their views about Vladimir Putin is pretty much asking them about how patriotic they are toward Russia.
And under these circumstances where there`s a sense that Russia is under threat and under siege, which, of course, has been portrayed by the Kremlin, people are rallying around the flag. It`s not at all surprising that we are seeing this. And I think what it does is tell us the difficulty that we`re going to have, we, at large, the diplomatic community, and the Ukrainians are going to have, and actually making any traction because many of the statements that Putin is making, including those reports that you just laid out in terms of what they are saying about the war after domestic consumption, to make sure that the view of what is happening here is pretty much entrenched, so that there is no pushback or blow back on the domestic front for Putin.
VELSHI: Dr. Hill, your book talked about how long you have studied this for and how long you understand it. And Russia spent a lot of time on fruitless wars and other places. I guess I have to ask you there is a domestic consumption of information, then there is the economic changes in Russia. There`s the funerals, the parents of soldiers who are dying, the fact that 30 years of economic achievement has been pulled back as a result of the sanctions.
How do you think Russians to get this information square their daily life and the changes they have experience in the last month with what they`re hearing?
HILL: This is going to be the interesting question about how this plays out overtime. We have already seen that there are people who are opposed to the war. There have been an uptick in protests action, and an uptick in arrest as a result, as the Russian government tries to get people off the street so does not get any momentum.
There has been a careful, of course, decapitation of the Russian opposition. I mean, thinking about Alexei Navalny, I mean, he was a figure sitting in jail, there was an effort to assassinate him just in the few months before this invasion. Now, of course, he has gotten further penalties extending his time in prison and in incarceration. There is clearly a worry about just this phenomenon that you are laying out there about more domestic dissent and protests.
We have also seen tens of thousands of Russians who have clearly opposed to the war leaving Russia, leaving for countries around. We have been seeing that these meetings between the Ukrainians and Russians have been taking place in Istanbul. Istanbul is now full of Russians protesting the war, including a man named Anatoly Chubais, someone who as very senior figure who was responsible for Putin`s rise within the Russian political system, and has been recently seen in Istanbul in exile.
So, we are seeing developments here. I think there might be more time before a really starts to have an impact. And you`re absolutely right, one key indicator here is going to be the public reaction when people start to realize the high casualties of Russian troops, not just those killed, but also injured. The fact that parents of conscripts realize their children will not come home.
In each of the other rushing conflicts, that eventually had some kind of impact on public sentiment. It might not sway Putin himself, who has a high tolerance for casualties.
[21:35:01]
I mean, this doesn`t really affect him personally in any particular way, but it will start to have an impact on the Russian public. And then we`ll have to see how much pressure on top of the economic downturn that that starts to put on the outer rims of the Kremlin, all the political people who may then eventually feet up the chain of information.
VELSHI: You heard my conversation with Admiral Kirby, there is speculation from the White House and EU officials that Vladimir Putin is not hearing the truth about military failures in Ukraine because his advisors are too afraid to bring him the bad news. That`s sound realistic you?
HILL: That does sound realistic. I mean, look, and these types of systems, there is a shooting the messenger problem. Many people will be very nervous about bringing Putin bad news. He himself has become convinced of his infallibility, in many respects, having been in power for so long, and having up until now, so many successes. He clearly miscalculated.
People really obviously are having a hard time to tell him this. I think it is also very smart to be having these discussions, with the intelligence being put out there, that will be one way up to turn back as well.
Putin will be seeing these reports and asking about them. So, it may be, again, as the reports come out, as the UK and United States intelligence community make this information available and talked about publicly, that information will filter back to Putin. The only thing is what he will do, just as Admiral Kirby described, he will figure out how to regroup and adapt, how to double down in many respects, to still try and see if his original goals are salvageable.
Putin himself has a contingency plan. He knows things go wrong, he will not be thinking, how he can pull things right, or how he can reapply himself or the Russian military at the task at hand.
VELSHI: Dr. Hill, we are always appreciative of your time. Fiona Hill is the former White House adviser on Russia, and the author of a remarkably important book. It`s called, "There`s Nothing For You Here: Finding Opportunity in the 21st Century".
Dr. Hill, thanks again for your time tonight.
HILL: Thank you so much, Ali. Thank you.
VELSHI: Up next, we will be joined by one of the reporters that broke a story that the Justice Department is expanding the number of people it is investigating over January 6, and it`s getting closer to Donald Trump`s inner circle.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[21:42:12]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MERRICK GARLAND, ATTORNEY GENERAL: The Justice Department remains committed to holding all January 6 perpetrators at any level accountable under law, whether they were present that they or were otherwise criminally responsible for the assault on our democracy. We will follow the facts wherever they leave.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: Attorney General Merrick Garland earlier this year vowing that investigators at the Justice Department will follow evidence of wrongdoing at any level that they came across while investigating the January 6th attack. Federal prosecutors have charged more than 775 involved in the attack. Since Garland`s comments, the department has brought serious conspiracy charges against members of far right wing groups who they claim coordinated and planned the attack.
But despite those prosecutions, there have been concern among many that the Justice Department is limiting its investigative focus to those that physically stormed the Capitol and ignored the actions of the former president and his allies who led the broader effort to overturn the 2020 election.
In fact, just this week, members of the January 6 Committee appeared to be visibly frustrated with the Justice Department for not bringing criminal charges against some Trump associates that refused to cooperate with its investigation.
The question everybody`s mind seems to be, what is the Justice Department doing about the numerous, far reaching efforts to try and overturn the legitimate presidential election of 2020?
Well, in the last 24 hours, we may have started to get some answers. "The Washington Post" was the first to break the news yesterday that the Justice Department has expanded its probe, reporting that in the past two months, a federal grand jury has issued subpoena requests to some officials and former President Donald Trump`s orbit who assisted in planning, funding and executing the January 6th rally.
"The New York Times" then followed with its own story, noting that the DOJ had substantially widened its investigation, quote, seeking investigation about people more closely tied to President Trump. Now, according to grand jury subpoenas that were reviewed by "The New York Times", it now encompasses the possible involvement of other government officials in Trump`s attempts to obstruct the certification of Biden`s victory, and the push by some Trump allies to promote slates of fake electors, end quote.
So, what do we make about these two new reports detailing an expansion of the Justice Department`s investigation, and could it reach as high as the former president?
Well, joining us now is Devlin Barrett, who was the lead byline on yesterday`s "Washington Post" story, which first broke the news that the Justice Department is branching out it`s January 6 investigation.
[21:45:04]
Devlin, good to see you. Thank you for joining us.
Your reporting is that the subpoena requests have gone out in the past two months to what your officials described or what you described as officials in former President Donald Trump`s orbit. What do we make that -- what do you take that to mean? Who are these officials, could they include members of his administration, close associates, financial backers?
DEVLIN BARRETT, NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER, THE WASHINGTON POST: I think the way to think about this set of information demands that they`re looking for whatever one`s role was in January 6. Remember, there`s a lot of different things happening on January 6th and part of the challenge for investigators is unpacking all the different pieces and seeing how those different pieces work together.
So, obviously, I think -- I think this was a long awaited step, obviously you mention that there have been some criticisms of the Justice Department from not doing this sooner. But I think it was an expectation that they would eventually get here. Just, you know, for some folks, not just Justice Department, they think they could`ve done it sooner than they did. But what they`re trying to do is essentially broaden the picture of all the activity on January 6. And frankly, even activity before January 6th is becoming more and more important to the investigators.
VELSHI: We know that the committee virtually for six hours with Jared Kushner. What do we know what happened there?
BARRETT: So, we haven`t heard a lot about that. One thing to keep in mind and this gets a little confusing because there are so many different arms to the government, is the committee`s work is very different from the criminal investigation. And it`s pretty unusual to have a full-throated committee congressional investigation going on at the same exact time as the criminal DOJ, FBI investigation.
That`s fairly unusual, even and sort of the hyperactive world of Washington, the way it is now. And I think some of the tension points you`re seeing and some of the distressed or confusion, or concern you`re seeing, is because those two forces are rarely in play at the same time. There`s not a great deal of understanding or information sharing between those two things.
VELSHI: And there`s been some very vocal criticism, particularly of members of the January 6 Committee about what the Department of Justice is or isn`t doing. What is your sense of it? Are they starting to converge, are they working on parallel tracks and is the Department of Justice, as you mention, possibly responding to that criticism? Or is this just unfolding the way the Department of Justice was going to see it unfold?
BARRETT: I think the department is very much aware of the criticism, but I think the best way to think about this is parallel tracks. The other thing to keep in mind is that the Justice Department investigations tend to go much slower than the public or the Congress expects or wants them to go. So I think there`s -- I don`t think this tension is going away, especially because the committee is trying to wrap up its work, in the summer, but I do think you`re going to see essentially parallel courses going through this process.
I think you`re going to see more and more indications that the Justice Department is looking into some of these things that are of concern to the committee, that are of concern to the public, but they`re going to do it at their own pace. And I don`t think the criticism that it`s not fast enough, I think the criticism will stay there, but obviously, this indication is a big step forward in a lot of people`s minds and the direction they want it to see the justice department going.
VELSHI: Devlin, great reporting from you and your team. Thanks very much for joining us tonight. Devlin Barrett is "The Washington Post" reporter covering the FBI and the Justice Department. Congratulations on the scoop, by the way.
BARRETT: Thanks, Ali.
VELSHI: When we come back, Russia is trying to hold Europe over a barrel, an oil barrel, but the U.S. is actually trying to help up without. That`s next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[21:53:06]
VELSHI: Ships of a certain size as well as ones that travel and international waters are all outfitted with automatic identification systems. Transponders that broadcast it ships location to other ships and to authorities who manage and monitor maritime traffic. This is the kind of thing that powers websites for shopping nerds like, maritimetraffic.com, which shows you the location of a mind-boggling number of ships around the world.
From this Russian icebreaker in the Bering Sea in the far north, to an American flag research vessel called the Lawrence M. Gold just off of Antarctica.
And the weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, if you are watching maritimetraffic.com, you could follow the progress of yachts that were owned or linked to Russia`s rich and powerful as they fled to friendlier waters like the yacht Graceful, believed to be one of two yachts belonging to Vladimir Putin which made it safely to Russian harbor on February 10th before anyone can impose sanctions and impound it.
Now, since the invasion, Russian-linked yachts also started to go dark. They basically turn off their transponders and literally disappeared off the map. You cannot seize what you cannot see.
And the same thing is happening with Russian oil tankers. A company named Windward Maritime AI, that provides shipping to a variety of customers realized an uptick of Russia affiliated oil shipments where the ships transponders just stopped broadcasting their locations. So-called dark activity among Russian affiliated crude oil tankers is up by 600 percent compared with before the war began. That`s according to Windward AI.
Now, there are good reasons for ships to go dark, like if they are shipping sailing near Somalia which is full of pirates. But apparently, this upsurge in dark academy around Russian oil is because buyers don`t want the bad publicity that is associated with buying oil from Russia right now as it invades a sovereign nation.
[21:55:10]
In the United States, the loss of Russian oil from the global market is exacerbating America `s own oil problems, specifically high oil gasoline prices which are adding to our economy`s inflation problem. President Biden announced today a plan to push oil prices down by releasing a million barrels of oil a day from the National Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months.
Now, that is the biggest release of oil from that emergency stockpile since it was created, nearly 50 years ago. But it`s just a drop in the bucket compared to how much petroleum the United States consumes, which is nearly 20 million barrels a day. U.S. crude oil prices did drop today because of the news, but it`s too soon to see whether prices at the gusts pump will come down or by how much.
Watch this space.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: That does it for tonight. We`re going to see you again tomorrow.
It`s time for "THE LAST WORD WITH LAWRENCE O`DONNELL."
Lawrence, I`m grateful for what you`re covering tonight because I`ve been so preoccupied with the war coverage here, and there`s some big, big things going on at home.