It’s possible, I guess, that a new poll or two will be released today showing significant movement in Mitt Romney’s direction. But barring that, it looks like his convention bounce was minimal, at best.
A new Rasmussen poll gives the GOP nominee a four-point lead over Barack Obama, but Gallup’s poll actually shows Obama ahead by one – an improvement on where he was before the Republican convention started. There’s also a new Reuters/Ipsos survey that shows the race tied, indicating a small bump for Romney, was trailed by four points in the same poll last week. Overall, the Real Clear Politics average shows Obama ahead by 0.1 points. Nate Silverestimates that Romney received a bounce of about two or three points.
This qualifies as a disappointment for Romney, who had an opportunity to open his first clear lead on Obama since emerging from the GOP primaries. It was especially important for Romney to do this because of the strong possibility that Obama will receive a bounce of his own from this week’s Democratic convention. If Obama benefits from a stronger bounce, he could enter next week with a sizable lead.
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