Summary
Cartoonist Scott Adams discusses the art of persuasion. President Trump's career as a con artist is examined. What does early voting say about the state of the presidential race?
Transcript
NICOLLE WALLACE, MSNBC HOST: "THE BEAT WITH ARI MELBER" starts right now.
Hi, Ari.
ARI MELBER, MSNBC HOST: Hi, Nicolle. Thank you so much.
And welcome to THE BEAT. I am Ari Melber.
We are 15 days out from Election Day, as Donald Trump plays defense in Arizona, a state the Republicans typically need to win the White House, and where Trump is basically in a dead heat with Joe Biden in the latest polling, the president still struggling to find a closing argument that's focused on Americans' daily lives.
He's under fire today instead for stoking autocratic rhetoric against Democrats. Meanwhile, Biden doing prep for the final debate on Thursday.
Now, among the many things that make this year's election different, here's an interesting one. Right now, we have more information about early ballots than ever before in American history. That's because of the pandemic, with so many more rolling in, including a brand-new and rich trove of data about early votes -- that means both mail and in-person -- that we just got.
So we have got some fascinating numbers at a level we have never seen this early.
Want to go through a few with you right now, before we bring in our top guests.
Here's one early headline: Turnout is not just up a bit or up double from last cycle. It is now four times the turnout at this point in 2016. What you're looking at is a whopping 29.6 million early votes in.
Now, there is nothing automatic about that. Even if you watch the news and you pay attention, and you think, well, it's 2020, there was going to be a lot of interest, that number tells us something now that we didn't know a week ago. For all the talk about pandemic voting, we didn't know that people would be turning out this much this early.
This universe of early voters is now expanding. Now, that's a civics takeaway, high early turnout. If you're into democracy, it's a good thing. It doesn't tell you anything about each individual candidate.
There's also, though, for you, right now, I want to give you some of the political clues. And here we see good measurable news for Joe Biden. In the 16 states which released data on party registration and mail ballots, meaning these states that do that by law -- some allow it, some don't -- but in the ones that we have, you can see right here Democrats absolutely crushing.
They are doubling Republican early turnout, with about six million ballots, in as opposed to just under three million for Republicans. Now, only a couple of states, a few states show their in-person early voting, but we have that, too, in this new data set that I'm telling you about.
And Democrats have a small edge in those eight states that do that.
Now, these numbers suggest that Joe Biden is right now banking an early lead. I'm not talking about state polling. I'm not talking about projections. I'm talking about votes cast. And it suggests that the Biden campaign's emphasis on early and mail voting is, as a practical matter, working right now.
What these numbers don't do, what they cannot do is reveal anything much about who will vote later. That makes sense. If turnout is up across the board, great, but later turnout, future voting could still change. It could still swing Republican.
And that's especially true this year, because, as we know, as I'm sure you have noticed, Donald Trump has been pushing hard for his supporters to vote in a certain way, to vote in-person, especially on Election Day, not necessarily right now.
But if turnout is not even, then Democrats could hold the edge I just showed you and still build an edge later. That would provide for a wide margin.
And then there's the third thing, that things can always change at this week's debate or from some other external event which would change potentially the preferences of future voters.
Now, that's still good news for Biden, because these preferences have been locked in. In other words, if something happened that helped Trump in the future, all these votes cast already were under today's reality, before anything changed.
To put it pretty simply, if you offer campaigns a sort of blind taste test right now to pick a position, every campaign in the business would pick Biden's position. They'd want to be where he's at right now over Trump, because, based on what is known, he's up, now, even if the surge in early voting leaves the majority of votes open in the future, which means nobody can predict what comes after this.
Now we got the numbers.
Let's get to our experts.
We begin the night with Juanita Tolliver, national political director for Supermajority, and Errin Haines, editor at large for The 19th.
Good to see both of you.
JUANITA TOLLIVER, NATIONAL POLITICAL DIRECTOR, SUPERMAJORITY: Hey, Ari.
ERRIN HAINES, MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR: Good to be with you, Ari.
(CROSSTALK)
MELBER: Good to have you both.
Juanita, I'm going to start with you, because any discussion of the state of the race can bring back all sorts of other memories and the issues with polling. And so I just want to underscore, because my job is just to keep it plain, I'm not talking about any polling. I didn't reference any state polling in that breakdown.
I'm talking about the 29 million votes cast. Your analysis of the point that, numerically, any campaign would rather be in the lead than behind, so they'd rather be in the Biden position, while there is still so much yet to happen?
TOLLIVER: Ari, that's exactly right.
If I'm a campaign manager, I, of course, want more votes banked ahead of Election Day. I think what Democrats have done surgically is really put out a message of, vote safely, vote by mail, and cast those ballots with enough time, so that they are absolutely sure to be counted on Election Day.
I think the other reality that we know about this, Ari, is that overwhelmingly Democrats have been voting by mail, whereas we know overwhelmingly Republicans are planning to vote in person on Election Day.
And so what we can anticipate is while Democrats have this margin right now, expect some swing. Expect some transition, as Republicans head to the poll on Election Day, because that's what I think has been clear.
The other point about turnout writ large overall, I saw a recent Pew study that showed that 84 percent of respondents said it really matters who wins this election. That is historically off the charts for them. That's much higher than previous election cycles. And if 2018 was any kind of a benchmark or a marker for us, we can expect that enthusiasm to carry into 2020.
MELBER: Errin?
HAINES: Yes, I mean, I think it's exactly what Juanita said.
And, listen, we know that Supermajority was phone banking, texting, mobilizing voters in an online action, trying to reach millions of women over the weekend. And so women are really powering this election -- a lot of the election enthusiasm that we're seeing, because we know the gender gap that's reflected in the polls that women are going to be the deciders of this election.
But, look, a lot of the black women voters that I talk to, in addition to the voter enthusiasm on the Democratic side that you mentioned, what they tell me is exactly what you alluded to in the lead-up to this, that black women are saying they don't want to leave any room for error before Election Day.
They're voting early in droves because they want to make sure that their vote is counted this election. And so doing that, a lot of them went on the first day of early voting in states like Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, had a plan, read their ballot, made sure they knew who they were going to vote for when they got to the front of the line finally and got in that ballot booth to be efficient about this process.
But, also, if there were any shenanigans, because they have heard about voter suppression, because they have heard the president raising the specter of voter fraud, they want to make sure that their vote is in and that it is counted far before November 3.
And so I think just the concern of trying to beat the margin of error at the polls is as much a concern for a lot of black women voters as the enthusiasm that I talk to them headed into November.
MELBER: Yes.
And because we're shifting into different measurements and different methods, the error rate may be higher. We know, historically, there can be larger problems with mail voting, which is before you even get into whether some states have been trying to do voter suppression or restrict access.
So, there's a whole question about what it's going to look like when you change the methods this much this fast.
But, Juanita, I wanted to this sort of lay of the land, which, again, are new numbers, so really fascinating, to what Donald Trump's closing argument is. He's been recycling some of these attack lines from '16 and "Lock them up," basically earning a lot of enmity, especially given the recent that was busted up by the feds, his own administration, even if he wasn't overseeing the law enforcement, with a kidnapping plot against the Michigan governor.
Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
AUDIENCE: Twelve more years! Twelve more years!
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Twelve. I think 12 is going to be now the gold standard.
What you're doing in Michigan has been amazing. Now, you got to get your governor to open up your state.
AUDIENCE: Lock her up! Lock her up! Lock her up! Lock her up!
TRUMP: Lock...
(LAUGHTER)
AUDIENCE: Lock her up! Lock her up! Lock her up!
TRUMP: Lock 'em all up.
AUDIENCE: Lock her up! Lock her up! Lock her up!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: Juanita?
TOLLIVER: What a disgrace, right? Trump sounds like a loser whose back is against the wall. And, honestly, this is the only playbook he knows to go to. Let me say something disgusting. Let me say something sexist. Let me target women leaders.
Let me -- and on top of that, just really appeal to my base, the same base he's only been speaking to since he descended the golden escalator in 2015. He's made no intention of expanding, and then asks the question why women voters don't like him, then asks the question why older voters don't like him.
It's explicitly clear in his language every single day.
MELBER: And, Errin, briefly, your thought about how this plays in some of these states. Michigan was closely fought.
HAINES: Yes, I mean, I think that it's interesting, because, at the beginning of this campaign cycle, I remember writing stories wondering how Democrats were going to counter the president's predicted return to his racial playbook.
And yet, although we couldn't have predicted this national reckoning on race, we are seeing not only black voters galvanized by the idea of racism being on the ballot, but white voters wanting to reject what they see as bigotry in the White House at the ballot box as well.
And Joe Biden entered this race last spring saying that this was a battle for the soul of America. And I think that that is as much about the two candidates as it is the voters trying to declare who and where they are as a country.
But you see the president today at his rallies given a shout-out to women in the suburbs, saying, put your hands up if you're a woman, and name-checking Paulette, that woman from the town hall last week who kind of shot her shot at the president.
So, suburban women are definitely an area where he knows that he needs to do better. And he is continuing to keep his name in their mouth in the homestretch, trying to shore up his numbers with them.
MELBER: Yes, put your hand up if you like Trump. It's like that old classic, if you have a $20, put your hand up.
(LAUGHTER)
TOLLIVER: If you got $100 bill, put your hand up, Ari. Come on.
(CROSSTALK)
MELBER: Everybody knows it, yes.
(LAUGHTER)
MELBER: Stranger things have happened. Fifteen days left. We will see what else happens.
I want to thank Juanita and Errin for bringing us those insights.
And we turn to another guest on another topic.
Nicholas Kristof is a Pulitzer Prize-winning writer for "The New York Times."
Good to see you, sir.
NICHOLAS KRISTOF, COLUMNIST, "THE NEW YORK TIMES": Good to be with you.
MELBER: There's so much going on. We just looked at these new numbers that are fascinating for 2020. There's the backdrop of, of course, coronavirus.
And I want to play something a little bit something new from Dr. Fauci, given the writing you have done about all of this. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
QUESTION: Were you surprised that President Trump got sick?
DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, NIAID DIRECTOR: Absolutely not. I was worried that he was going to get sick when I saw him in a completely precarious situation of crowded, no separation between people, and almost nobody wearing a mask. Sure enough, it turned out to be a super-spreader event.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: Nobody would envy the position Dr. Fauci's in. He seems to have decided, at this moment, under questioning, to use what the White House does, not as a model, but as the anti-model.
I'm curious what you think of that, both in the public health domain, which is, as we understand it, Dr. Fauci's focus, but the obvious wider shading and embarrassment politically here, which is not a great message to hit Donald Trump with two weeks out from someone who the polls show has far more credibility than the president.
KRISTOF: That's right.
I mean, look, one of the basic lessons we learned in public health from AIDS, from every other disease is the importance of health communications. And it's one that Dr. Fauci certainly knows.
And I think the CDC in general has been -- just felt enormously constrained, because it wants to send a message out to the public about the importance of social distancing, about the importance of wearing masks, about suspending weddings, other events like that.
And then, meanwhile, the president, of course, has been sending the exact opposite message. And poor Dr. Fauci has been in this impossible situation of trying to navigate between Scylla and Charybdis here.
And so he -- in response to a question, he made the point that, if you take risks, you may indeed get the virus.
You know, I got to say, Ari, that what was even -- was really kind of horrifying was President Trump's response today denouncing Dr. Fauci, and implicitly the entire public health community, for trying to stand up for reason and rationality in combating the virus.
MELBER: Do you think that that's Donald Trump being Trumpy, and no one knows how that will play, or do you think, unlike '16 -- we have talked about some of the overlap -- there is also contrasts.
When it affects people's lives, health and the pandemic-related recession, beefing with Fauci with the deficit I mentioned is not good for Trump right now, period?
KRISTOF: I think that any time the conversation is about the coronavirus, that is unhelpful to President Trump.
I think any time he's battling with scientists, that is unhelpful. And I think that, maybe more broadly, every time he reminds voters about his bombastic side, his skepticism about modern science, is profoundly unhelpful.
And I guess, Ari, also one thing that I worry about is, Dr. Fauci is truly one of America's leading experts on infectious diseases. And we're now seeing President Trump just marginalize him and criticize him and, meanwhile, promote and listen to Dr. Scott Atlas, who is an MRI expert.
And I'm sure he's great at MRIs, but you wouldn't want an epidemiologist to read your MRIs. You don't want an MRI expert to be running your country during a pandemic.
MELBER: Yes. It would be like having a reality show host being the president.
(LAUGHTER)
KRISTOF: That's exactly right.
MELBER: But that would never happen.
(LAUGHTER)
MELBER: Nicholas Kristof, we welcome all of your insights amidst our dry sense of humor on THE BEAT.
Thank you, sir.
KRISTOF: Thank you.
MELBER: Appreciate it.
We have now our shortest break of the hour. It's just 30 seconds.
Coming up on the program: A Republican senator now claims they have been opposing Trump, but only in private.
But right now, after these 30 seconds, I'm going to bring you our special report on why Trump's broken promises may really be blowing up in his face -- when we're back in 30.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MELBER: America's now roughly two weeks away from deciding a fundamental question: Do you want four more years of Donald Trump?
Trump's first presidential campaign was unusual, but not original. He literally plagiarized Ronald Reagan's famous campaign slogan and told fans he would make America great again.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: We're going to make America great again, believe me.
We will make America great again. God bless you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: That was the pitch, vintage Trump, a big, bold promise that's vague enough to mean just about anything, and crafted to focus attention on the performance, not the substance or results.
So, when people do commit to that kind of Trump pitch, it can be harder to break away, because the whole thing is so dramatic and emotional from the start.
How do you fact-check a feeling? But there are actually ways. And there are now increasingly relevant clues from Trump's rocky business past.
And that brings us to our special report right now. What happens when a Trump con falls apart? What happens when facts and failure become so unavoidable that even longtime Trump fans jump ship?
It's happened before. And what I'm about to show you offers potential clues for these final two weeks ahead and clues to whether or not the bottom drops out of Trump's narrow, but resilient base.
I'm talking about this:
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: At Trump University, we teach success. That's what it's all about, success. It's going to happen to you.
If you're going to achieve anything, you have to take action. And action is what Trump University is all about. Above all, it's about how to become successful.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: That was 16 years ago, when Trump was so desperate for cash, he went beyond licensing his brand name to other companies for hotels or merchandise, which is how he's monetized his name, to actually do what you saw there.
He was claiming to start his own classes. Now, we all know it was a pure con.
Now, this may sound harsh, but what I'm about to say was proven by evidence and settled in court. One, Trump University was a con job to defraud Trump's own, most loyal fans. It had neither Trump nor a university. The business wasn't a credited university. In fact, he was busted later by New York authorities for operating without a charter.
It had no Trump, because he ditched out on teaching those promised classes. So, these paying Trump fans, these customers, arrived only to find cardboard cutouts of Trump. They said they were given infomercials, not classes, and told to go home and look at real estate Web sites to ply their craft.
Now, two, Trump U was a business that gave out business advice which went out of business. Embarrassing. The joke here was pretty obvious.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's so insane, he started Trump University, but it's not even a university. It's just a Web site.
(LAUGHTER)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: How would you recruit students for that?
Excellent hair, son. You're on your way.
(LAUGHTER)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Would you care to see a brochure from Trump University? It's the best university in the country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: This is all familiar to so many Trump endeavors.
Remember here, the victims are not Trump critics. Critics won't work with him in the first place. No, a con man is dangerous to be around because he cons the people who trust him.
For Trump, that was the contractors still working to work with him, fans who still think he cares about them. Now, thousands of those fans paid for those classes back then. Some paid up to tens of thousands of dollars.
And, to be clear, some were still standing by Trump even when he snubbed the classes and broke his word, a dynamic where the person defrauded can still praise their own victimizers, until the moment they realize they have been fleeced.
That is a line from a ruling that Trump got in the case he later lost. It came up in the debates in 2016.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The plaintiffs against you are like the Madoff victims.
TRUMP: Oh, give me -- give me a break.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And the -- this is what the court of appeals said.
They found that victims of con artists often sing the praises of their victimizers, until they realize they have been fleeced.
SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL): He's trying to do to the American voter what he did to the people that signed up for this course. He's making promises he has no intention of keeping.
He's trying to con people into giving them their vote, just like he conned these people into giving him their money.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: Conning voters. That's a Republican, Marco Rubio, making the link from Trump U to the election. And here we are in the homestretch of the election.
The allegation, later proven, was that Trump was conning some of those paying Trump fans. And some of them looked at the evidence and came to the hard conclusion. Trump scanned them.
Here is Bob Guillo.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BOB GUILLO, ATTENDED TRUMP UNIVERSITY: Donald, you have all the money in the world. Why did you pick on a little guy like me?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: That was Bob speaking out after an interview with our own Lawrence O'Donnell.
He went from paying for those classes and thinking they were fine to changing his mind, to realizing he was conned, however painful that might be as a process, however hard it is to admit.
Trump then went off after Guillo by name, citing his initial support for the program.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Bob Guillo, and here's his report card on the school. And he talks about excellent. What grades -- your quality of presentation, quality on everything. Excellent, excellent, excellent, excellent. Why would anybody settle a case when we have reports like this?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: Why indeed? Why would anybody settle that case?
Trump was referring to how his former fans had sued him over the con. And Trump was wrong. They won their money back. Now, during the campaign, Trump lied and claimed he wouldn't pay them or settle, but he did both for a whopping $25 million.
Now, how does all this relate to the election right now? Well, it suggests how even some die-hard Trump fans, the ones who put their own money down for him, could change their minds.
It's also a reminder of why Trump is different than a lot of other traditional politicians, because he engenders stronger emotional reactions and feelings. And that can make his fans more ardent when they like him and more scorching when they break from him.
That's something we just explored on this program, hearing from people who had given Trump years of their time and labor, only to join forces now, hoping to oust Trump from the White House by backing Biden.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAEL COHEN, FORMER ATTORNEY/FIXER FOR DONALD TRUMP: I wasn't just part of the cult, I helped create the cult.
MELBER: How many years, in your count, in your mind, did it take to change your mind about Trump?
Michael?
COHEN: A decade.
MELBER: Anthony?
ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI, FORMER WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: Seven years.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: Both those increments of time are longer than the four years of a first term.
But there are Trump voters out there who are also changing their minds, just like some of these other people I just showed you.
We're seeing Biden now leading by 43 points among people who are switching their vote from a count in six key states, states where Trump won narrowly over Hillary and where former Trump supporters are now backing Biden.
Like these other ex-Trump fans, these voters might be looking at the evidence. Now, Trump has done a few things he politically promised. He did put conservatives on the court. He did pull out of the Paris climate accord. He did run harsh immigration crackdowns, as promised.
But just like Trump U, many, many of his boldest and biggest, most famous promises are just like the cardboard cutouts of Trump in that sad hotel conference room. It's a fake, a fraud, a con.
Mexico never paid for the border wall. Trump didn't drain the swamp. He broke records for most advisers convicted ever. Trump didn't bring back the coal mining. Those jobs are crashing, below 45,000 in the current recession. It's a far cry from Trump's campaign pledge.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: If I win, we're going to bring those miners back.
We're putting the miners back to work.
We will put our coal miners and our steelworkers back to work.
And we're going to have clean coal. It's clean coal. We're going to have coal. So, hang in, because we're going to put you back to work. And it's going to be a beautiful thing to see.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: Yes, hang in there. Well, it's been four years. Trump hasn't even worked on coal much publicly, let alone fixed the substantive decline, production on track to fall 30 percent.
Now, have any miners found themselves feeling like Trump U customers? Yes. Some say Trump's entire frame has been proven false, because the fundamentals won't bring coal back to the old days.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Coal mining isn't coming back, and it's time to get real about it. You might think of Appalachia as a very conservative place.
But, in 2000, the majority of the Appalachia's coal-producing counties voted for Al Gore. Our families used to vote for Democrat for labor rights, but economic desperation has driven us to vote otherwise.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: Then there's health care.
That's an even larger priority during this pandemic, where Trump's 2020 line has basically been recycling old claims for a secret replacement plan for Obamacare.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DANA BASH, CNN: Obamacare?
TRUMP: It's got to go.
BASH: It's got to go.
TRUMP: Repeal and replace with something terrific.
Obamacare's not going to be here much longer, folks. You see what's going on.
Repealing and replacing the disaster known as Obamacare.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: But you can see the con. Trump's not been working on replace. He's doing repeal without replace, trying to get it repealed in the Supreme Court next month.
Now, Trump was just on defense over this broken pledge last week, pressed at the town hall again about running on a secret plan this time, as 20 million Americans could lose their health care immediately under this administration.
And then there's the issue that may fit Trump U the best, Donald Trump and taxes. In terms of hypocrisy, Trump is a tax deadbeat. He's now been exposed by "The New York Times" for dodging and paying less taxes than most Americans.
Now, in terms of policy impact -- that's your life -- Trump is taking from the middle and working class and giving it to the rich through his policies, just like Trump U defrauded fans that many of whom had far less money than Donald Trump himself.
Now, he ran on populism last time, but pushed a tax plan to help the rich, and then admitted it, telling millionaires at his private Mar-a-Lago club that his plan made them a lot richer.
The facts matter. You know, the median American makes about $33,000 a year. It costs $200,000 just to join Mar-a-Lago. And those millionaires are the ones that Trump is using his power to help right now, as he admitted.
And, in contrast to Trump U, these taxpayers can't get their money back from the last four years by just suing Trump. But they can look at the evidence of the con as you make a decision about the next four years.
And I want to be very, very specific. The point here is not about whether you like Trump or not, or even like what he promises, as some people apparently do. For Trump fans, the point is deciding if his promises are even true. Is this real, or is he just an actor?
Consider some words of wisdom about decoding cons from Shawn Carter referencing "Raging Bull." They're actors looking at themselves in the mirror backwards. Can't even face themselves. Don't fear not rappers. They're all weirdos. De Niro's in practice. So, don't believe everything your earlobe captures. It's mostly backwards, unless it happens to be as accurate of me, and everything said in song, you happen to see, then actually believe half of what you see, none of what you hear, even if it's spat by me.
Poetry to keep in mind this election. Don't believe all of anything. Be skeptical of the actors, the weirdos, and the con men, and make sure, when it's time to make up your mind, you are using your own mind.
Next, we're going to turn to Steve Schmidt on decoding all the political cons amidst this race -- right after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MELBER: We're back with Steve Schmidt, MSNBC contributor, co-founder of The Lincoln Project, and a longtime Republican strategist.
Thanks for being here, sir.
STEVE SCHMIDT, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Good to be with you, Ari.
MELBER: Do you see lessons from the crumbling of past cons and why it's harder on the one hand for some people to change their mind, but some do?
SCHMIDT: One of the one of the most successful public advocacy campaigns of all time was the effort, Ari, to convince people to stop smoking, that cigarettes were bad for you.
And they discovered an insight during that long process. And it was that, when they started warning, particularly teenagers, that smoking is bad for you, what it did...
(DOGS BARKING)
MELBER: How many dogs you got back there, Steve?
(LAUGHTER)
SCHMIDT: The pack has left.
(LAUGHTER)
SCHMIDT: Those are three big dogs, including a 135-pound Bernese Mountain Dog you just heard there, but...
MELBER: OK, because I didn't know whether you just were playing DMX in the background or whether they were actual dogs.
Go ahead, though. I think they have passed.
SCHMIDT: But the insight was that the more that teenagers heard the message, the more that young people that this is bad for you, the more they smoked.
Ultimately what broke the back of the tobacco industry in terms of public opinion was that they were manipulating their customers. And it's that dawn, it's that realization that you have been manipulated, as hard as it is to face, is what is going to doom Donald Trump, because enough people understand that they have been manipulated by the greatest con man who has ever been in the United States.
Let's give him at least that. He is the greatest con man this country has ever produced, our worst president, our most malignant president. But there is no con that has ever achieved what he has.
MELBER: From a persuasion standpoint -- and we mentioned The Lincoln Project, where you do some of this work, in addition to your other public comments and advocacy.
What are the avenues where you see that working, the topics?
SCHMIDT: Well, look, the American people know to be true what's revealed in "The Washington Post" and "The New York Times" today.
So, for example, Donald Trump put a quack doctor in charge of this country's coronavirus response, overwhelming the decision-making and the expertise of men like Anthony Fauci, who may well be the premier public health expert on infectious diseases in the world.
And so we have a president who has recklessly lied to this country, and we have hundreds of thousands of dead people. People understand that the American way of life has crumbled into something that was unimaginable before Donald Trump. And a lot of the reason is because of his incompetence.
You look at his performance, you look at how unhinged he is, you look the breathless lying, you look at him now under siege, you see him getting smaller, the act is over. You saw what was an important moment. Joe Biden got bigger ratings, because the American people want to see the next president of the United States.
This is collapsing. His staff knows it. There's a lot of worry in Washington, D.C. And they should be worried, because they have been part of an amoral and terrible cause that's done great damage to the country, about being able to find jobs.
You have senators that are going down all over the place. And you have senators in states like Texas, John Cornyn, who may be in trouble.
So, look, we're at the end of this. And there's going to be one last ask from Donald Trump to his enablers, to his collaborators, to the people that have been complicit, and it's going to be the fact that he's going to want them to stand with him shoulder to shoulder as he declares that he won or was cheated out of a victory in an election that he clearly lost. That will be the last act.
MELBER: Yes, it's important...
SCHMIDT: It will be the last (AUDIO GAP) to commit sedition.
MELBER: Yes. Well, it's important -- it's a strong word, but it's important that you flag that, because there is evidence in reporting of that being a move. And everyone's going to have to decide where they stand on that if it gets to that point.
You also alluded -- and I want to get your views on this, Steve -- to how things aren't working the same way. So, that's not only Trump, but Trumpism, even among groups that are known for being boosters.
So, this headline is pretty striking, a credit to Mediaite -- quote -- "FOX News passed on Hunter Biden laptop story over credibility concerns."
We have fact-checked and covered aspects of this without giving the false parts or the unverified parts too much attention, Steve.
My question to you is not about the innards of the story and the problems facing Giuliani and others who may have been a party to this, but what does it tell you when -- quote -- "even FOX News" doesn't want to be in this?
SCHMIDT: I'm not ready to ascribe any virtue to FOX News, other than to say that there's a ludicrousness to the story that even FOX News understood that it couldn't justify.
And when you understand what happened at "The New York Post," with the writers refusing to put their bylines on it, the corruption, intellectual corruption of that journalistic enterprise is just amazing to behold. It's obviously not credible.
The American people have been lied to, deceived. I mean, look, this information at its origin is coming from Alex Jones, who is a Newtown denier. Think of the pain that man has caused people in this country.
Rudolph Giuliani, who has shattered his credibility for God knows what reason over the last four years. And Steve Bannon, who is an indicted -- is indicted for multiple felonies. None of these people have any credibility.
All of these people are exquisite scumbags in this American moment. And none of them should be believed. And the attacks on Hunter Biden are disgraceful, despicable. And they come from, of course, the biggest grifting, disgraceful family that has ever set foot inside the people's house, the White House, the residence of the president of the United States.
And they have debased it. They have debased the institution. They have disgraced the presidency. They have humiliated...
MELBER: Yes.
SCHMIDT: ... the country.
And soon it will be time for them to go and to face the judgment of history and the American people.
MELBER: Well, Steve, I would say the segment began with you letting the dogs out, literally, and it ends with you letting them out rhetorically, and we're the better for it.
SCHMIDT: Good to see you, Ari.
MELBER: Good to see you, Steve, and the dogs.
We're going to fit in a break, but, when we come back, I have got an update on new indictments against the very Russian military hackers that did this work in 2016.
And new signs that Donald Trump's recycled attacks aren't landing. Is there trouble on the campaign trail? We have a very special guest, a first-timer on THE BEAT.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MELBER: Turning to news you need to know.
The same Russian unit responsible for the 2016 election interference in the U.S. caught again. The DOJ charging six Russian military officers with a hacking campaign that targeted U.S. hospitals and businesses, as well as the 2017 French election, and even the 2018 Winter Olympics.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOHN DEMERS, U.S. ASSISTANT ATTORNEY GENERAL FOR NATIONAL SECURITY: No country has weaponized its cyber-capabilities as maliciously and irresponsibly as Russia, wantonly causing unprecedented collateral damage to pursue small tactical advantages and fits of spite.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: You watch the news, so I bet you remember the warnings. This is being Bob Mueller put everyone on notice about.
The DOJ says these hackers cause up to a billion dollars in damages to American companies alone. So, we wanted to bring you that legal news.
Now, we have a break, but, when we come back, a very special guest making a BEAT debut. I'm very excited about this. And we're going to get into how rhetoric and psychology work on the campaign and why some say Trump's attacks on Bidens, they're not sticking this time around.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MELBER: Even as more Americans work from home right now, everyone can relate to some classic frustrations around the office.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "OFFICE SPACE")
GARY COLE, ACTOR: We have sort of a problem here.
Yes, you apparently didn't put one of the new cover sheets on your TPS reports.
RON LIVINGSTON, ACTOR: Oh, yes, I'm sorry about that. I forgot.
COLE: Mmm, yes. You see, we're putting the cover sheets on all TPS reports now before they go out. Did you see the memo about this?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: The movie "Office Space," part of a long administration of workplace comedy, which isn't only about work. It's about people, just like the classic comic strip "Dilbert" created by Scott Adams in 1989 continues to resonate. It's syndicated in newspapers in 65 countries, 25 languages around the world. It was even adapted into a popular TV show.
And its creator has proven to be a very relevant analyst of life and politics.
Joining us now for his BEAT debut is Scott Adams, creator of "Dilbert," better author of the book "Loserthink: How Untrained Brains Are Ruining America."
Scott, I have read several of your books. They're really intriguing, even when they raise things that are sometimes disagreeable.
Thanks for being here.
(LAUGHTER)
SCOTT ADAMS, "DILBERT" CREATOR: Thanks for having me. I appreciate it.
MELBER: You're clearly onto something, which is why some people find you funny, some people find you difficult, because you're very open about all of your world views.
And so let's start with this. What do you bring to the table that is both funny and psychological, but also has made you interested in politics? And how would you apply that if someone says, I want the Scott approach to the next two weeks of this election?
(LAUGHTER)
ADAMS: Well, I have an unusual talent stack, as I like to call it, because I have the background in economics and an MBA. So, I can look at things from a business perspective, and I'm a trained hypnotist.
So, the two ways that I look at things, the way I filter things, is through persuasion and through economics. And those two things are pretty strong tools for looking at reality.
MELBER: Yes, you mention reality.
So, one of the things that happens in the media a lot is, you go and look at things a certain way from historical precedent, which is relevant for a lot of things. The labor report comes out every month. The precedent is actually useful.
And then, in other things, that precedent is very misleading when things are changing. And that's difficult.
So, let's look at something that you were ahead of the curve on, whether people like it or not. This is Scott Adams in early 2016, in the middle of the GOP primaries. Here we go.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ADAMS: I have been predicting he's winning in landslide since last year.
JAKE TAPPER, CNN: Not just the nomination, but the presidency?
ADAMS: Yes, I think it will be one of the biggest margins of victory in history.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MELBER: You saw Trump winning, and he did. What brought you to that view then, and what do you think now?
ADAMS: Well, when I saw him start to campaign, I could see he had a skill set in persuasion that I had never seen before. It was just off the charts.
So, if you actually study persuasion, and you work with that kind of content, you see that he has the whole package. He talks in a visual way. He keeps things simple. He repeats. He can brand things. He can give you a nickname like low energy Jeb, and it takes you right out of the race.
When I saw him brand low energy Jeb, that day, I said publicly, that's the end of Jeb. That was such a strong brand that he went from -- he went from, I think this executive is exactly the kind of calm, cool person you would want for president -- Jeb looked like really the real deal. He looked exactly like you would want a president to be.
And the moment Trump said he's low-energy, that's all you could see. And it was over from that day on. And he could repeat that.
(CROSSTALK)
MELBER: What you're speaking about is the ability to persuade people, sometimes regardless of the underlying facts.
We have a really extreme, almost ridiculous example of that, but I'm dying, having read your book, to see how you break it down, which is Trump getting people to cheer for something, regardless of any underlying reason, when the lights went out at a rally. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Put them in the jails. They didn't pay the electric bill, to put them -- oh, I like that much better.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
TRUMP: Oh.
No, get those lights off. Off. Turn them off. They're too bright. Turn them off. Turn them off. Let's go. Ready? Turn off the lights. Turn off the lights.
AUDIENCE: Turn off the lights! Turn off the lights!
TRUMP: Turn off the lights. Turn them off.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(LAUGHTER)
MELBER: The crowd is chanting something that's nonsensical.
For any student of history, that's pretty scary if the person wants them to go have a mob mentality for any illicit end.
When you see that, what's the persuasion tool? And are you ever concerned, oh, he can take everyone off a cliff?
ADAMS: Well, I think there are, as I like to say, two different movies playing on the same screen.
So, the people who are supportive of the president see that, and it's just stand-up comedy. And I don't think they take any of it seriously. They don't take the "Lock them up," they don't take any of that seriously.
And so they were just having fun. You could see that they were just responding to his mirth. He was having fun with it. So, they had fun with it. And it didn't matter that it was important.
Now, persuasion-wise, there is a concept in sales where, if you can get your prospective buyer to do something small, it's easier to get them to do something larger later. You want to get them in the mode of doing things for you, that it just becomes comfortable for them to do it.
So, anything that Trump can get you to do, retweet anything, it just makes you a little bit more committed to him.
MELBER: And, briefly -- I have about 45 seconds here -- but Trump's attacks on Biden, by several measurements, they look recycled from '16. They don't, some of them, seem to be working as well.
Would you agree with that, or no?
ADAMS: You know, people are really concerned about what's scariest and immediate.
And one of the problems that Trump has is, he solved a lot of scary problems. So, I don't spend any time worrying about ISIS. When he's the president, I don't worry that the economy is going to collapse. And I don't worry that our trade deals will be bad. So, there's a bunch of stuff I'm not afraid of.
But the coronavirus, you can't not think about it. It's just everywhere all the time. And it's the ultimate scary thing. So, if he loses, it would be because of the coronavirus. And it's because it's a fear that you can't get out of your head. And it's hard for him to distract you that much, because it would take a big distraction to make you not think of the coronavirus.
MELBER: All very interesting.
I'm out of time. You see him winning or losing as of today?
ADAMS: I see him winning as of today.
MELBER: Scott Adams, we will test you on it, just like everything else, after the election.
I hope you will come back on THE BEAT, sir.
ADAMS: Thank you.
MELBER: Thank you.
And we will be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MELBER: Thanks for joining us tonight.
I want to let you know, tomorrow, we have some very special guests, including Mary Trump live on THE BEAT, with her thoughts on her uncle's campaign in the homestretch.
"THE REIDOUT WITH JOY REID" starts now.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.END
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