Summary
The Republican Party`s big lie and attack on elections are examined. Are more indictments coming against the Trump Organization? Texas Republicans make a new attempt to kneecap Democrats in the state. One GOP governor claims he can stop the devastating spread of COVID in his state. Texas Governor Greg Abbott trails Matthew McConaughey in polls. Pfizer announces that its vaccine has proven effective and safe in children 5 to 11.
Transcript
NICOLLE WALLACE, MSNBC HOST: THE BEAT with our friend Jason Johnson, in for Ari Melber, starts right now.
Hi, Jason.
JASON JOHNSON, MSNBC HOST: Hi, Nicolle. Thank you so much.
Welcome to THE BEAT. I`m Jason Johnson, in for Ari Melber.
We start tonight with the party of Trump`s war on democracy amid new details on how concerned the nation`s top general was about an unhinged lame-duck Trump.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERT COSTA, "THE WASHINGTON POST": With Chairman Milley was trying to do, as we show in the book, is contain a national security emergency. And, as Bob said, he was reading people in. While these calls with General Li were held on a top-secret back channel, they were not secret. This was not someone who was working in isolation. He was reading people in, in the national security...
(CROSSTALK)
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS, ABC NEWS: He was not going rogue.
COSTA: He was not going rogue. He was reading people in throughout the national security and military community, trying to contain a situation and a president he believed was in serious mental decline.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNSON: So, think about this. He was trying to contain a president he believed was in serious mental decline, Trump stewing after losing and in his made-up mind believed the election was stolen.
Now, eight months later, that big lie and the war on democracy is a lie. We have been reporting on sham election audits from Arizona to Pennsylvania. Now they`re happening in Michigan and Colorado, but get this, in counties that Trump actually won, all because this entrenched idea among the Trump base that elections are rigged and can`t be trusted. Apparently, even their own votes can`t be trusted.
New today, Senators Lindsey Graham and Mike Lee personally vetted Trump`s election fraud claims. Despite saying publicly Trump should not concede and spreading unfounded claims of fraudulent mail-in voting, behind closed doors, they weren`t convinced.
But Trump is still pushing this, writing to Georgia`s secretary of state last week asking him to decertify the election.
Look, here`s what you actually need to know. The Republican Party is running on this big lie. This is the party`s platform. And Politico is reporting the phony election fraud conspiracies are becoming more entrenched in conservative circles, with vague unspecified claims that future races are already rigged.
This is going to include the 2022 midterms. And while the rally supporting January 6 terrorist was a dud, remember, Trump has said his heart with them.
It comes as Capitol Police reveal more than 4,000 threats against members of Congress in the first quarter of 2021, on pace to double 2020`s numbers. Journalists Bob Woodward or Robert Costa report on how close Mike Pence came to overthrowing the election.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BOB WOODWARD, "THE WASHINGTON POST": This really was a question of the legitimacy of the American presidency.
And if Pence had gone up there in Congress and said, look, I can`t decide whose votes to count...
COSTA: He is with President Trump on January 5 hours before the instruction, and President Trump has this temptation of power.
Wouldn`t it be cool, he says to Vice President Pence, to have the power to decertify an election?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNSON: Joining me now is Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist for "The Washington Post" Eugene Robinson, former Democratic Congresswoman Donna Edwards, and Democratic pollster Fernand Amandi.
Thank you all so much for starting off the show today.
Look, I`m going to start with this. I get all sorts of hate mail. You get hate mail all the time, but death threats or something else entirely. And that seems to have been skyrocketing since last year.
I want to play this sound from Speaker Pelosi. And then, Donna, I want to get your thoughts on the other side as a former member of Congress about how much this has been a sea change in our body politic.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA): You know, I`m the speaker. I have threats all the time. But -- so I`m not afraid for myself.
But I was afraid for my other members and for the staff and for the workers in the Capitol. They were traumatized by this assault on the capital of the United States, a temple of democracy for the world.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNSON: Donna, I mean, Nancy Pelosi basically said, hey, I`m about this life, there have been people after me all along, but this is not normal for everybody else.
How do you view this sort of new temperature in Washington, D.C.? And how`s that contrast to when you were there?
FMR. REP. DONNA EDWARDS (D-MD): Well, I have to say, I mean, I was there in the time of the passage of the Affordable Care Act.
And, to be quite honest with you, I think there were a number of us as members who received significant threats to ourselves. Many members stopped doing in person town hall meetings as a result of those kinds of threats. But what we`re seeing now has escalated well beyond what we experienced back in that time in the 2008 to 2010, 2012 time frame.
[18:05:00]
And you have members of Congress, Anthony Gonzalez from Ohio, who said he was leaving because of the toxic environment. He and his family had received threats, and so many other members. And it`s tough to protect yourself as a member of Congress.
If you`re the rank-and-file, you don`t get the security detail that the leadership gets. You`re on your own. Your staff in the District are on their own. And it`s a very dangerous time.
JOHNSON: And, look, it`s strange to think that there was ever a time that being a Congress was safe.
There was always -- there have always been people who are unhappy with you. You can go back to 200 years in history and members of Congress occasionally getting flogged by somebody being angry. But the idea of overt actions of violence against members of Congress seems to be part and parcel of the current GOP.
Fernand, there`s this there`s new ad out the Marjorie Taylor Greene is using where she`s shooting weapons at a like a Honda Civic or something that says socialism and blowing it up and then auctioning off the weaponry.
From a polling perspective, who out there is watching this and saying, you know what, I want a member of Congress that wants to engage in violence against their colleagues? Does that worth polling-wise, or is it is it all in the heads of the Republicans?
FERNAND AMANDI, DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER AND STRATEGIST: Well, Jason, I mean, it certainly works in the radicalized fringe segment of the electorate that the MAGA paramilitary cult caters to. And I think that`s what we have seen.
You listen to the comments and how Congresswoman Edwards at the top of the segment, what Robert Costa and Bob Woodward were describing was General Milley in a hostage situation where American democracy, in fact, the very nature of the American republic, was facing a moment of a potential domestic terrorist takeover.
And the actions that I think General Milley were taking were trying to deal with a terrorist takeover. And I think, frankly, until we start speaking in the language of what is in front of us, however alarming it may sound like, however dangerous it may be, I don`t think we`re doing justice to the point.
And I think that means calling Donald Trump what he is. He`s a terrorist. Donald Trump is a terrorist. This radicalized fringe element of what is today`s GOP, again, uses violent threats, threats against family, in some cases, literal violence.
JOHNSON: Right.
AMANDI: And when that happens, I think one has to recognize. The impact on the polling is clear, but the impact on the republic is even clearer.
JOHNSON: And, sometimes, just violence against trees, like Madison Cawthorn, congressman, punching that tree from his wheelchair a couple of weeks ago.
Look, Eugene, this is the other thing that concerns me. You have members of Congress. I`m going to play this audio from Costa again talking about how concerned people were about Trump`s mental state. I want to get your thoughts about this afterwards and how this sort of changes the dynamic in Washington, when you have a president you can`t trust.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
COSTA: President Trump`s conduct alarmed everyone, nearly everyone, in his inner circle, his administration. He could very well run for president in 2024. And this system, the American system, tested all the way to the brink, could be tested again.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNSON: Now, Eugene, I don`t know that America really passed the test, because I think we`re just an ongoing, slow-moving coup, objectively.
But with Donald Trump, with all that we have learned about him with all that we have learned that he`s attempted to do since he`s left off this, do you think he will even have the time -- since he seems to be wanting to run the slow-moving insurrection, do you think he will have the time to run in 2024? And is Washington prepared for that?
EUGENE ROBINSON, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, yes, I think he will make the time to do that, if he chooses to run.
My working theory until fairly recently was that Trump would pretend that he was going to run in 2024 as a way of deflecting possible criminal prosecutions and saying he was being persecuted politically.
I have started to believe that he actually may run and probably will run. And the backdrop that we have to keep in mind -- and you just mentioned it, Jason -- is that is -- as Nancy Pelosi said to General Milley, this is a crazy man, right?
This is a man who is not non compos mentis. And that`s one of the real takeaways from the Woodward-Costa book, is, you have the speaker of the House of Representatives and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff ranting on the phone about how the president was literally out of his mind.
And here he comes again. I mean, I`m starting to think that he is going to try once again to run for president.
JOHNSON: And, Fernand, when it comes to conspiracy theories and crazy and ignoring COVID, I`m sure DeSantis is always saying, hold my beer.
But if Donald Trump were to run in 2024, he would be stepping over aspirational politicians like DeSantis. Do you think that there`s a possibility that they would actually be a primary in 2024? Do you think that anyone would actually challenge the former disgraced, twice-impeached president if he were to run again?
[18:10:11]
Do you think most people would just sort of part like the Red Sea and let him continue to do the damage he`s already done?
AMANDI: Well, Jason, all indications are that, even if there is a primary, it`s not going to matter. Donald Trump still continues to hold almost total support within the Republican Party.
And if you look at these Republican Party primary polling, they all say, if Trump runs again, there will be with him in lockstep. I think any Republican who dares run against him will see the fate of any Republican that has dared crossed Donald Trump. They will soon get the proverbial knife in the back and their political career will end in shame amongst the Republican electorate.
So I don`t see anybody willing to take on the juggernaut that is Trump. But, again, think about the terms that Milley talked about and dealt with. This wasn`t an aberration. I think the other hypothetical to think about, what would have happened had those protesters breached the Congress and taken hostages, and the worst-case scenario would have transpired?
Then I think, one, when you look at it, in retrospect, it changes the dynamic. Fortunately, for America and for democracy, the instruction was contained, but it could have very easily gone the other way. And I think that`s the danger that Bob Woodward and Bob Costa are talking about in their book "Peril."
JOHNSON: Donna, this is something else that actually concerns me. And this is why I`m always very skeptical when people say the institutions held or our democracy held it, because recent reporting basically says that this more or less came down to Mike Pence, to Mike Pence actually saying, I`m not going to absolutely capitulate to the president of the United States.
I wouldn`t want to put the future of this country in Mike Pence`s hands. And yet you still have people believing that, because one man made one halfway decent decision at one particular time, that we`re safe.
From your perspective, could this country sustain a full-fledged campaign again, from Donald Trump with the current state of the Republican Party? Do you think that would be safe? Do you think the rallies would really just turn into full-fledged riots on a regular basis, even in the midst of COVID, if he`s allowed to run again?
EDWARDS: No, I have to tell you, I mean, I am still frightened for the fragility of our democracy, because the reason that it held -- and we found this out -- was because of people`s goodwill.
And so much of the transition in government, that reliance on institutions is about the goodwill of the people who serve. And I think that Congress has an obligation to fix that.
Otherwise, the Electoral College Act is completely out of whack. And it really will not sustain the kind of attack that Donald Trump and other Republicans and his sycophants continue to lodge against the institutions of government.
And so, no, I`m not convinced that just because it happened to hold in 2020 means that it will hold in 2024.
JOHNSON: Right.
And, I mean, and we know that there was more to those private conversations between Pence and Trump, if only we could be a fly on the wall or the head in that room and know what was really being said.
(LAUGHTER)
JOHNSON: One last thing here. And I think this is key, because Fernand sort of made a reference to this. Look, Trump is vicious. He will go after his sort of political enemies.
There`s also reporting now that the president, former president, is looking at trying to get a challenger to Mitch McConnell, that he wants to get Mitch McConnell out of power because McConnell wasn`t supportive enough to him.
I can`t imagine anybody being a real challenger, except maybe Daniel Cameron.
Fernand, do you think that is just more bullying from the former president, in anticipation of a run? Or do you think there`s real danger of him trying to behead some of the leadership that he didn`t feel was supportive enough to him when he was running the country under the ground?
AMANDI: Well, I mean, again, he`s creating a litmus test. He`s saying, you`re either with me or against me. It doesn`t matter even if you`re part of my party, or if you have been with me in the past. The question is, are you with me now?
That`s how cults function. That`s how terrorist groups function. And that`s why I keep going back, the danger outlined by General Milley that we saw documented spoken a hostage situation that could have ended in bloodshed. We have also not seen any sort of real contrition from the party itself, from the Republican Party, to try and make amends in that post-January 6 period.
So I agree with Congresswoman Edwards and I think with Eugene Robinson. It is a perilous time for our democracy. In fact, the peril may never be greater.
JOHNSON: Eugene Robinson, Donna Edwards and Fernand Amandi, thank you so much for starting off our show today.
Bob Woodward and Robert Costa will make their cable news debut tonight on "THE LAST WORD WITH LAWRENCE O`DONNELL" 10:00 p.m. Eastern right here on MSNBC. Got to watch that.
Coming up: Trump Organization back in criminal court today, with claims that more indictments are coming. We will talk about it live with Neal Katyal.
Plus, Texas Republicans make a new attempt to kneecap Democrats in the state. We will explain.
Plus, how one GOP governor claims he can stop the devastating spread of COVID in his state.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[18:18:43]
JOHNSON: The criminal probe into the Trump Organization is intensifying, with Trump`s indicted moneyman back in court today.
Trump Organization CFO Allen Weisselberg appearing before a judge for the second time since being accused of the $1.7 million tax scheme earlier this summer. And here is the ominous and key takeaway from today, his lawyer revealing they expect more indictments and asking for extra time to review millions of pages of discovery documents, saying -- quote -- "There could be more indictments common, Judge. What`s the rush?"
Weisselberg denies the allegations of wrongdoing.
Also new today, we`re learning details about the possible timeline for a trial, for the first time, the judge penciling in a trial date for a late August or early September of 2022.
Earlier this month, "The New York Times" reported prosecutors are considering charging Trump Organization chief operating officer Matthew Calamari Sr. with tax-related crimes, but his lawyer today insisting he will not be indicted, saying -- quote -- "If they presently intend to indict him, I would have been informed. In fact, I have been informed to the contrary."
Trump`s lawyer also telling Politico today he hasn`t heard from DA Cy Vance`s office for months, saying -- quote -- "We have no information of anybody being charged, certainly not the former president."
[18:20:03]
I have the perfect guest to break this all down, when Neal Katyal joins me live in just 60 seconds.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
JOHNSON: Joining me now is former acting U.S. Solicitor General Neal Katyal.
Thank you so much for joining us tonight on THE BEAT.
Neal, I love getting these updates about "Billions," the Trump years, when it comes to investigations into this organization. Where are we now? So, we found out that there could be additional indictments coming. We now know that there may be a court date set for time next August. Is this tightening of a noose around the organization? Or are we still sort of set setting the playing field for lots of other people who might be brought in the coming months?
NEAL KATYAL, MSNBC LEGAL ANALYST: Well, Jason, I think it`s all the above.
So it is the playing field is still being set. There is some tightening of the noose, to be sure. Today, Allen Weisselberg`s lawyer said that there will be further indictments, plural. So that`s what he expects. And there`s a lot we don`t know about that. There are some things we do know.
So we know, for example, Allen Weisselberg, who was Trump`s right-hand guy, has been indicted for tax fraud, and that he`s been indicted for fringe benefits and abuse of that. And we know his defense is, well, lots of people do it. As any teenager can tell you, a lot of people doing it is no defense, certainly not a successful one.
We also know that the New York attorney general`s office is working with the Manhattan DA`s office, hand in glove, to try and do this investigation together. And we also know that the Trump Organization has been run less like an ordinary business, like Palmolive or something, and much more like a criminal enterprise.
And so that leaves us with some knowledge, but also some known unknowns. And so just take today`s news. We should take a note of caution about it. Weisselberg and his lawyer is not the best source of information.
Weisselberg wants to delay, and that`s what he was doing today. He was saying, I expect further indictments, and they have given me millions of pages of documents, the government, to review, and I need more time. Of course, all he was getting was his own -- the government was just giving him his own accounting records back.
It`s a bold move to ask for more time to study your own documents. It`s like asking the teacher for more time because you can`t read your own handwriting.
(LAUGHTER)
JOHNSON: Yes, well, especially when you were using that handwriting to sort of forge things for other people.
We also have new reporting here from The Daily Beast that prosecutors have found evidence in someone`s basement, I guess new documents tied up in the Brooklyn basement. Does this show that, again, this investigation is still, I guess, for lack of a better word, in the discovery phase?
If they`re still digging up old boxes and documents and getting iPads and things like that, the list of people being caught, the list of people being brought in, could still be pretty long and still forthcoming, right?
KATYAL: Absolutely.
This investigation is still in the discovery phase, to be sure. And yes, today, there`s evidence that I guess a new box of documents was found in some co-conspirator`s basement. And after all the dramatic reveals of the Trump administration, like the secret recordings, what you were just mentioning about the Woodward January 6 secret memos, a box of evidence in a basement feels a little bit quaint.
But, look, I think that -- you`re right. It underscores there`s still a lot we don`t know. And Trump`s lawyers have been basically saying, well, he`s cleared. They`re only indicting his right-hand guy, Weisselberg. They are not indicting him.
But just remember, the way criminal investigations are begun are against other people first, and you`re trying to build the case against them. Sometimes, they will even flip and testify. Sometimes, they won`t.
But just think about Enron, where the first round of indictments didn`t include the CEO, but I think the CEO ultimately was indicted and went to prison for like 14 years or something like that.
JOHNSON: Right.
KATYAL: So that`s the way criminal organization -- criminal cases are brought.
So I think we should all take a breath, let this thing play out.
JOHNSON: So I want to play a quick sound bite from Mary Trump talking about what the conflict instance of these ongoing investigations might have for the country and get your thoughts on the other side.
[18:25:06]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MARY TRUMP, AUTHOR, "THE RECKONING: AMERICA`S TRAUMA AND FINDING A WAY TO HEAL": There`s a possibility that he`s going to be too busy defending himself in court or too busy giving depositions to stay engaged politically.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNSON: Now, Neal, it`s -- look, Donald Trump has not been known to ever have the greatest of attention spans. People tried to dummy things down for him when he was president. He doesn`t seem to be able to keep consistent information or lies or honesty.
But is there a possibility that, if these investigations begin to flip people -- and I do suspect people are going to start flipping like hotcakes once the pressure is really put on them -- that this may actually be a distraction and keep him, keep the former, twice-impeached president from actually running again, if he feels like these sorts of legal challenges are going to be too much for him to handle?
KATYAL: Well, I sure hope that`s not what`s going on, because these prosecutions should be brought based on just a pure law enforcement reason, nothing else. If there are other collateral consequences that follow, so be it.
But I don`t think that`s a legitimate reason at all. And I do think just one important point here is that the allegations against him about the tax fraud, about him inflating assets, and claiming charitable deductions that he never paid and so on, that`s actually not that different from the way the guy ran the country, I mean, inflating his value pretending to be more charitable than he was, trying to avoid paying taxes, and overpaying his children to help him do it, I mean, say what you will, he kind of ran the country like he ran his business.
(LAUGHTER)
JOHNSON: Not to mention the fact that he might see these sorts of lawsuits as an indicator that he really did frighten the swamp.
Neal Katyal, thank you so much for joining us on THE BEAT tonight.
KATYAL: Thank you.
JOHNSON: Still to calm: All right, all right, all right. Texas Governor Greg Abbott`s MAGA-style politics are going to backfire, after Matthew McConaughey is leading him in the polls, as a star Democrat also eyes a challenge.
Plus: vaccines, kids and the good news millions of parents have been waiting for.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[18:30:45]
JOHNSON: Today, Texas Republicans beginning a new session of their legislature, trying to use redistricting to hold off demographic changes that could threaten the party`s grip on power.
GOP lawmakers are feeling confident and in no mood to be merciful, as if they ever were, despite a changing population that could derail their political agenda. The 2020 census showed that people of color made up 95 percent of Texas` population growth, and they live in the state`s biggest urban counties made up mostly of Democrats.
We have already seen what happens when states that were once solidly red turn purple or blue, like in Georgia and Virginia. Now Governor Greg Abbott is facing the fight of his political life. A new poll shows Abbott`s approval rating has plummeted to 45 percent, compared to 59 percent pre- pandemic.
Former Congressman Beto O`Rourke is reportedly thinking about running against him. Actor Matthew McConaughey is also said to be thinking about a challenge. A new poll shows McConaughey trounces Abbott by nine points.
Joining me now is Wendy Davis, former state senator from Texas, and political guru and my former professor, Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia`s Center For Politics.
Wendy, I will start with you.
Texas has been so solidly red for so long. There hasn`t been a Democratic governor since Ann Richards. But you`re hearing these names pop up now going against Abbott. Within his own party, you have got Allen West. There`s a possibility of Matthew McConaughey. Beto O`Rourke may look. There`s always one of the Castro brothers.
Is there a possibility that the next Texas governor`s race, after the damages of COVID and the blackout, could actually be competitive to a strong or functional Democratic challenger?
FMR. STATE SEN. WENDY DAVIS (D-TX): I think there definitely is, Jason.
And a couple of things to point to, to demonstrate that. One is that, election cycle over election cycle, Democrats are continuing to show gains in statewide races and in the presidential election cycles. It`s also the case that one of the things this poll showed, not only is Greg Abbott suffering badly overall, but he`s actually dropped 23 points with independent voters.
And that`s where he`s got a real problem. We saw Virginia change from red to blue because suburban women, moms got mad. And that`s what`s happening here in our state, where we have a governor who said, we cannot send our kids to school with masks to make sure that they`re safe, denying women access to abortion, and spending a billion dollars on a border wall that ought to be spent for public education.
JOHNSON: I want to play some sound from Terry McAuliffe, who`s a Democratic nominee for governor right now in Virginia.
And, professor Sabato, I want to get your thoughts on the other side.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
FMR. GOV. TERRY MCAULIFFE (D-VA): My opponent is are Trump wannabe. He`s been endorsed by Donald Trump three times. He has said, I`m honored to have his endorsement. He`s quoted saying, so much of the reason why I`m running is because of Donald Trump. That`s his quote.
So he`s the one who`s inserted Donald Trump here. And we know the damage that Donald Trump has done to this country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
JOHNSON: So, Larry, my thought when I hear this is, yes, Virginia is more or less moving blue. Terry McAuliffe was making a good point, but this race for governor is a lot closer than you would think it should be, given how blue Virginia has been pretty much since 2008.
What is going on in the Virginia gubernatorial race right now? And is there a possibility for a Republican upset?
LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA CENTER FOR POLITICS: Well, you have just said what everybody here is saying. It`s a lot closer than it ought to be, given that Virginia has not become as blue as California or some of the other states we could mention.
But it is blue, purple or purplish blue. It`s reliably Democratic in the last decade. Republicans have lost everything for a decade. Look, part of it is that the Republican, Glenn Youngkin, has unlimited money. He`s worth hundreds of millions. He`s told even Republican legislators privately he`s going to spend $100 million or more.
[18:35:00]
That breaks all the records by a mile in this state for any statewide office. That`s part of it. Also, he has no record. He`s been in business. He`s never run for public office, although, to his detriment, he`s created a record by some foolish statements that he has made, including the one you cited about how wonderful Donald Trump is.
And he`s also said what he thought privately, and was recorded, that he`s going to do make decisions that will please the anti-abortionists in Virginia, but he can`t tell people because he knows it`s unpopular. Well, you don`t say that when you`re being recorded. That was kind of dumb. He didn`t know he was being recorded.
But my feeling -- I go both ways on this, because, on the one hand, the polls here frequently underestimate Democrats. They have recently -- the last governor, the polling average had Ralph Northam up about three points. He won by nine. And there have been other cases of that recently.
So it`s possible McAuliffe is doing better than we think. But it`s also possible that, in the midterm, off-off-year midterm of a state like Virginia, when there`s a Democratic president whose ratings have been falling, it is possible for a Republican to win, particularly one with unlimited resources.
JOHNSON: So a lot of Democrats across the country, some were sighing with relief, some were absolutely thrilled by what just happened in California, where Gavin Newsom was able to rally support in the last six or seven weeks, defeat Larry Elder, defeat the recall.
And, strategically, some Democrats seem to think hey, look, if we can make sure that we mark every single Republican running next year as a Trump acolyte, that will be enough for us to win. If we hang COVID around the necks of Republicans, that should be enough for us next year.
Wendy, do you think that`s going to work in a state like Texas, where apparently there`s a lot of support, at least on some levels, for Governor Abbott`s treatment of COVID? Is that going to be enough to make him weak next year?
DAVIS: The interesting thing statewide in Texas is the very low participation that we have in our state primaries.
So, for example, when Governor Abbott was elected as the Republican nominee in his last gubernatorial race, less than 10 percent of registered voters in Texas were responsible for giving him the Republican nomination. And then he believes that he can glide into the general because there won`t be enough Democrats to defeat him.
But, as I said earlier, whether it`s by tying him to Donald Trump or simply tying him to his own actions -- and I truly believe that his own actions in our state are the thing that will make him most vulnerable. Yes, they`re making that very small base of Republican primary voters happy, and he`s going to survive his primary, according to the polling.
But can he survive a general election taking a hard right turn like that and abandoning what a lot of us believe should be the priorities of our state governance? I don`t know if he can.
JOHNSON: Larry, I, of course, live and breathe by the Crystal Ball analysis that I see.
And I usually don`t like to prognosticate too far. I mean, 2022 is still you`re off. A week as a lifetime in politics. But I do think, as of right now, we can see some of the contours of next year. It`ll always be the economy, but, also, it will be COVID.
Do you think, if we`re in the same position next year as we more or less are now, if we`re heading into next fall of 2022 with COVID still ravaging some states, with some schools still going back and forth between virtual and in person with mask mandates, do you think that is going to be a losing issue for the Democrats heading into the midterms?
Or will they be able to rally against Republicans saying, hey, look, we would have this fixed 18 months ago if you guys can help us get rid of these folks in the House and Senate?
SABATO: Well, that`s the Democratic argument, Jason, but the president, whatever president, whichever party, is always "responsible" -- quote, unquote -- in the voters` mind for whatever the conditions are.
But I have to say, Jason, you have changed a lot since I knew you as a student. You were an optimist back then. Now you`re a pessimist.
(LAUGHTER)
SABATO: I don`t think COVID is going to be nearly as bad next fall. But that`s not my field. And that`s why I can be so optimistic.
(LAUGHTER)
JOHNSON: You are much more optimistic than I have become, Larry. I have to point that out. I was wide-eyed and bushy-tailed at UVA.
Larry Sabato and Wendy Davis, thank you so much for joining me this evening.
DAVIS: Thank you.
SABATO: Thanks. Thanks.
JOHNSON: Ahead, a historic infrastructure plan being delayed or gutted by Senators Sinema and Manchin. We look at the severe consequences.
But, first, major good news -- and it is good news -- on vaccines and young kids. Our experts are here to talk about it next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[18:44:01]
JOHNSON: Big vax news, today, Pfizer saying its vaccine is safe and effective for children ages 5 to 11. For this group, Pfizer tested a lower dose than teens and adults get and found it produces the same strong levels of antibodies, vaccines potentially available for elementary-aged kids by Halloween, yes, vaccines and candy.
So that`s the science.
We`re also watching the political fights. Take Mississippi. It`s got the country`s highest COVID death rate. The Republican governor is blasting Biden`s proposed vaccine mandate as -- quote -- "tyrannical."
And now he`s getting grilled about that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JAKE TAPPER, CNN: So, with all due respect, Governor, your way is failing. Are you going to try to change anything to change this horrible statistic from what you`re doing already?
GOV. TATE REEVES (R-MS): The president wants you to believe...
TAPPER: But...
REEVES ... that this is -- the Delta variant is only affecting Republicans in red states.
TAPPER Are you going to change anything?
(CROSSTALK)
REEVES: That`s just not true.
TAPPER: What are you going to do to change this?
REEVES The best way that Americans -- we believe in personal responsibility.
Individual Americans and individual Mississippians...
TAPPER: So, you`re not going to change anything?
REEVES ... can take -- make good decisions.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[18:45:03]
JOHNSON: A number of GOP-led states battling vaccine mandates, despite experts saying mandates will help end the pandemic.
This week, the U.S. COVID death toll will likely surpass the total of the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic, which killed about 675,000 Americans, the COVID death toll number represented here in flags planted on the National Mall, one for each life lost, which gets to a larger question. What will victory look like over this pandemic?
From social distancing, to masking, to vaccines and boosters, to maybe one day a cure, do we have an endgame in sight?
Joining me now to give us answers, Dr. Kavita Patel with the Brookings Institute. She worked on health policy in the Obama administration, and Democratic strategist Juanita Tolliver.
Thank you so much for joining us this evening.
Dr. Patel, I got to start with this.
What does victory look like over COVID? I see the new news that now children can be vaccinated. I`m sure that puts hundreds of thousands, if not millions of parents at ease. But that`s not stopping the pandemic. So are we shooting for a cure down the road at some point? Or is this something we`re living with for the next three to five years, until it burns itself out?
DR. KAVITA PATEL, MSNBC MEDICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Yes, great question, Jason.
So, look, the most likely scenario is that we live with COVID, much like we have learned to live with other types of viruses that had perhaps had those initial kind of pandemic-like effects, the flu, for example, and then we start to have, between vaccines and understanding how to protect ourselves if there is a flare, we end up having -- we go from pandemic to endemic, where we largely control cases.
That doesn`t mean, Jason, that we`re down to zero. That means that we have hopefully on the order of hundreds to thousands of cases over a period of time. And, of course, there will be deaths. But vaccination offers us a way to both learn to live with this virus long time -- long term, but to also be able to have a more normal life, to your question earlier about, when will we get out of this? When will we get back to normal?
JOHNSON: I was hoping our pandemic endgame could end in a snap. But I don`t think that`s going to end up happening.
Juanita, so we have now political consequences. We have seen this all along. The pandemic has been politicized, masks, vaccines. We have the story now about a New Hampshire Republican who switched to being a Democrat because he is so frustrated with how his party has failed to adequately address COVID.
He mentions seeing his daughter to college, and, even though there`s a vaccine mandate, 6, 7 percent of the kids there still end up getting sick. My question for you is, do you think that, heading into this fall and next year, are we going to see party-switching?
Are we going to see, I guess, vaccine Democrats or vaccine Republicans who are basing their vote on the status of the pandemic more than what their previous ideology was?
JUANITA TOLLIVER, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Look, Jason, I think there is a possibility for that.
But those same people have already been the Republicans taking the off-ramp from the party under Trump at the start of this pandemic and as they have lost loved ones, right? So I would say there`s been a probably a trickle of that, and this New Hampshire state rep is the most high-profile one.
But I do also question, 18 months in the pandemic, what wasn`t bothering you before, right? Like, it is not like the Republican Party all of a sudden just started this type of pushback, just started calling Biden`s tyrannical for actually trying to save lives through mandates.
So I`m like, OK, sure, change parties, but now use your whole chest to fight for good. Use your whole chest to fight for life, as a doctor, as a physician.
I think the other thing here is that Democrats know that they have voters on their side with this. Polling shows two-thirds of voters support these types of mandates. Two-thirds of voters support these types of safety precautions with mass and social distancing.
And so I think political messaging needs to emphasize that. I also recognize that, when Biden rolled out his vaccine mandate and testing requirements two weeks ago, that he knew he had the public on his side. So Democrats should hit that drum regularly, especially when you have people like governor Reeves of Mississippi hemming and hawing, ultimately saying the message of he doesn`t care about people.
While he`s comfortable and vaccinated, he`s telling people to do the opposite, right?
JOHNSON: Right.
TOLLIVER: Like, it just shows he lacks respect for his constituents in Mississippi.
JOHNSON: Dr. Patel, I have always been skeptical about the influence of influencers when it comes to the vaccine.
Look, we had Juvenile come in, did "Vax That Thing Up." I`m sure that was great. That was a bop. I enjoyed it. But you also have -- you have got comedians like Jim Breuer saying, hey, I don`t like vaccine mandates. We had the kerfuffle last week with Nicki Minaj and sort of spreading disinformation.
You have this week Chris Rock saying, hey, everybody needs to go out there and get vaccinated. I`m now sick, even though I actually had the vaccine.
Are any of these messages that we`re hearing from celebrities, whether in politics or pop culture -- even Seth Rogen last night saying, hey, look, we`re in a hermetically sealed place for the Emmys. I don`t feel safe.
Do you think that`s just become noise at this point? Or are there still people who can be convinced to either hold onto their skepticism or overcome it based on what we`re hearing from pop culture figures?
[18:50:09]
PATEL: Yes, I do think there`s still a path forward, where you do have people, and especially women and women of color, who I experience hesitancy with around fertility issues.
It would have been so much more powerful if Nicki Minaj had said something like along the likes of, look, it`s a really difficult decision, but I ultimately chose to get vaccinated, even though I have heard about friends who are concerned about fertility.
That alone, Jason, could have gone so much further than exactly the kerfuffle that happened last week. And so I do think that there is a way forward. You know what, though? It just reminds me celebrities are absolutely human. And they are succumbing to the same misinformation, disinformation and lies that the American public is.
So, just when we want to think there`s something special about them, they`re regular people too.
JOHNSON: Yes.
PATEL: So, in one way, they can actually appeal to very much the kind of demographics.
And, by the way, it`s not just young people. It`s old people. It`s all...
JOHNSON: Right.
PATEL: There is no one group that is more hesitant than the other. There are all types of audiences to reach.
But they are human. And they are -- unfortunately, the majority of them, Jason, are spreading misinformation, rather than information.
JOHNSON: Right.
PATEL: And it`s getting even more complicated now that we have these -- we have advisory committees on booster shots, and we have all these different kind of permutations. If you have got the Moderna, we don`t have this for you.
The more complicated the messaging gets, the easier it is to fall prey to that, even if you are a celebrity. So it goes back to something Juanita said. Vaccines are way. We can get out of this through vaccines, vaccines, vaccines, as well as just having a blanket understanding that immunization gets us back to normal. Immunization gets us back to normal.
JOHNSON: I want to play a quick clip from Chris Rock and get your thoughts -- it goes with those same ideas -- and Juanita`s well.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHRIS ROCK, COMEDIAN: I`m going to put it this way. Do I take Tylenol when I get a headache? Yes. Do I know what`s in Tylenol? I don`t know what some Tylenol, Gayle. I just know my headache is gone.
Do I know what`s in a Big Mac, Gayle? No, I just know it`s delicious.
GAYLE KING, CO-HOST, "CBS THIS MORNING": Two all-beef patties, special sauce, lettuce. cheese.
ROCK: I don`t know what`s in that sauce, Gayle.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(LAUGHTER)
JOHNSON: Look, you only live twice. Most people don`t know half the things are eating. I had Carl`s Jr. earlier today.
Juanita, do you think that that kind of messaging also -- does it ratchet down some of the concern? Because it`s not just a Chris Rock is respected, but it`s also kind of common sense. There`s all sorts of things we consume that we still don`t understand.
TOLLIVER: That`s exactly right, Jason.
Not only did he emphasize his own lack of understanding, but he emphasize his willingness to take it anyway, because he knows it will help them. On top of that, I have seen now that FDA approval, full approval, is going out. That`s another thing that we`re hearing states put out there, so people who said, I`m waiting on FDA approval, now you got it. Go get vaccinated, right?
So take it anyway. Take it because we know it will save your life.
JOHNSON: I think a lot of people who said I was waiting for FDA approval couldn`t even tell you what FDA stands for.
(LAUGHTER)
JOHNSON: Dr. Patel, Juanita Tolliver, thank you so much for your time this evening.
Before we go to break, a quick update on a story we brought you last week, a clarification, three women arrested after a fight broke out outside a New York City restaurant after they were asked to show proof of vaccination to dine indoors.
New security footage view by "The New York Times" shows the women were African-American, did present their vaccine cards, and were seated by the hostess. Several minutes later, three men joined them, but only one showed proof of vaccination.
A short time later, the fight breaks out outside the restaurant. One of the women says the hostess used a racial slur and implied their vaccination cards were fake.
Lawyers for the hostess dispute this. The women were released from jail with a court date set for October.
We will give you more updates as we get them.
Coming up: end-of-the-world science fiction and D.C. politics. Leave it to me to explain.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[18:58:25]
JOHNSON: That dramatic scene is from FX`s newest apocalyptic thriller, "Y: The Last Man," in which a deadly disease kills all men with a Y chromosome on the planet. And the fate of the world now rests on women`s shoulders.
But a surprising challenge of the apocalypse is -- surprise, surprise -- infrastructure, one reviewer writing that the show is telling us a story about the dangers of crumbling infrastructure, calling it one of the scariest parts of this new sci-fi adventure.
In the wake of a pandemic killing millions, whole cities have been evacuated, as centuries-old plumbing, roads and grids can no longer be maintained. And that`s on the show. But doesn`t it sound kind of familiar?
Because, meanwhile, right now, Arizona Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is among those threatening to upend plans to pass Biden`s infrastructure and budget bills. In the past few years, we have seen what happens to a society when we`re unprepared for expected disasters.
"Y: The Last Man" is a dystopian future about how, even in the absence of men, women in power can uphold the same shortsightedness and callousness that are hallmarks of the patriarchy. Let`s hope, as these infrastructure talks go forward, that American life doesn`t have to keep resembling art.
One final note before we go. Remember to catch Bob Woodward and Robert Costa on their new book tonight on "THE LAST WORD WITH LAWRENCE O`DONNELL" 10:00 p.m. Eastern right here on MSNBC.
That does it for me. Ari will be back tomorrow.
"THE REIDOUT WITH JOY REID" is up next.
Hey, Joy.
JOY REID, MSNBC HOST: Hey.
JOHNSON: Have you seen "Y: The Last Man"?
REID: I have not.
OK, are -- are you -- well, you can explain it to me later in text. Text me about it.
JOHNSON: Yes. Yes. It`s an awesome show.
REID: OK, please do. All right, excellent. All right. All right.
I love getting the recommendations. Thank you very much, my friend. I appreciate you.