Show: THE LAST WORD WITH LAWRENCE O`DONNELL Date: November 3, 2016 Guest: Ana Marie Cox, David Frum, Mike Murphy, Penda Hair, Larry Sabato, Elise Jordan, Steve McMahon, Ana Marie Cox
RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC HOST: That does it for us tonight, we will see you again tomorrow, now it`s time for THE LAST WORD with Lawrence O`Donnell, good evening Lawrence.
LAWRENCE O`DONNELL, MSNBC HOST: Rachel, I`m so glad you covered the update on Mosul. I have been doing that the last few nights --
MADDOW: Yes --
O`DONNELL: And especially in light of the fact that Donald Trump said everything you just described wasn`t going to happen.
MADDOW: Yes --
O`DONNELL: It`s the kind of the most under-reported story that is related to the campaign but not directly in the campaign. And each day we see something new --
MADDOW: Yes --
O`DONNELL: That was kind of unimaginable just weeks ago.
MADDOW: Yes, he says the U.S. military is a disaster, he says that operation is a disaster, he half believes that Mosul is part of Syria --
O`DONNELL: Yes --
MADDOW: And it`s remarkable. Thanks, man --
O`DONNELL: Thank you, Rachel.
MADDOW: Good evening --
O`DONNELL: Well, today, the wife of the biggest cyber bully in the world said that if you make her first lady of the United States, she will work hard to stop cyber bullying.
Ana Marie Cox will join us with her reaction to Melania Trump`s speech today. But first, we have a new electoral college projection by the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
And that projection indicates that the next president of the United States will not have a first lady.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This isn`t a joke. This isn`t survivor. This isn`t the bachelorette. This counts!
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Thank you, say --
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: If Donald Trump were to win this election, we would have a commander-in-chief who is completely out of his depth.
TRUMP: Oh, this and that, oh, give me a break.
OBAMA: Donald Trump is temperamentally unfit.
TRUMP: Best thing I have is my temperament.
CLINTON: Now, he knows we can see and hear him, right?
TRUMP: I think the gig is up.
MELANIA TRUMP, WIFE OF DONALD TRUMP: We have to find a better way to talk to each other, to respect each other.
TRUMP: These people are stupid, they`re stupid people.
OBAMA: Come on, man!
TRUMP: I promise you, I will never enter a bicycle race.
CLINTON: Stay on point, Donald, stay on point.
TRUMP: We need to teach our youth American values, kindness, honesty, respect.
TRUMP: Stupid people, remember that, stupid people.
OBAMA: Sometimes the temptation is to tune it out, and you want to just focus on the Cubs winning the World Series.
CLINTON: And who knows, maybe we`ll see even more history made in a few days.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O`DONNELL: With just four campaign days left now before the presidential election, American voters have probably already decided who the next president of the United States will be.
Most of the models repeatedly used to predict the winner are predicting a win for Hillary Clinton.
On this program, we presented the Moody`s Analytics model this week that uses economic factors as well as political factors to predict a winner. That shows Hillary Clinton winning 332 electoral votes to Donald Trump`s 206 electoral votes.
Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics is now ready with his latest projection of the results of the presidential election.
Joining us now, Larry Sabato. Larry, this is not your final projection because there`s a couple of states you`re still thinking about, but give us your count as of tonight.
LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR POLITICS, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Yes, so, Lawrence, we`ll update on Monday, but right now we think that Clinton has 293 electoral votes.
She will, we believe, win Nevada, despite some of the late polling that has her behind there. We think she`s ahead in North Carolina.
And as long as Democrats can manage to get out more of the African-American vote, and they`re working hard on that, she will win North Carolina.
Our big toss-up, in fact, the only toss-up state is Florida. You could argue that New Hampshire is a toss-up state, and not to diss New Hampshire, but there are only four electoral votes there and there are 29 in Florida.
Florida has flummoxed us so far, you could argue it either way. But 293 is a respectable total. If she wins Florida, she`ll go well over 300 of the Moody`s Analytics projection will be very close to accurate.
O`DONNELL: And Larry, you mentioned Nevada, you mentioned some states where you see recent polling indicating Hillary Clinton trailing, but you`re projecting her to take that state, why? What`s the difference between your projection and that polling?
SABATO: The early voting in Nevada, when you look at the numbers, and your Msnbc analyst John Ralston, who is the number one expert on Nevada has made this point repeatedly yesterday and today.
When you look at the early voting totals, it`s hard to see how Donald Trump wins. So much of the vote comes in early in Nevada, and it`s coming in very favorably for Democrats.
I think some of those polls, Lawrence, are simply missing a big piece of the Latino vote. And that`s one of the hidden stories of this election.
Maybe African-American turnout is down, but I`ll tell you what`s substituting for it, an enormous backing for Hillary Clinton among Latinos.
Latino decisions has an excellent new data on this, showing that Clinton is actually getting a larger percentage of Latinos than Barack Obama got in 2012 and he set a record in 2012.
He got 71 percent, Hillary Clinton is apparently getting somewhere around 79 percent, Donald Trump is in the teens.
Gee, I wonder why? But that is a big gain for Hillary Clinton. So, the electorate`s never static, and different pieces of it move in different directions every four years.
But overall, I think people who are saying Hillary Clinton is collapsing and the blue wall is falling, you know, it`s chicken little all over again.
O`DONNELL: And quickly, Larry, on the Senate, if Hillary Clinton -- if your projection is right, Hillary Clinton is going to be the next president. Is she going to be able to get a Supreme Court nominee through the next United States Senate?
SABATO: Well, she needs -- she needs 50 Democratic senators, plus Tim Kaine to do that. And they have to get rid of the 60-vote rule, obviously.
But I think they can do it. Obviously, this has not gone as well in the Senate as Democrats had hoped. And some of those races where they had been leading in the last month or so, now they`re in dead ties.
But I think they can get to 50 or 51. They do depend on a good showing by Hillary Clinton in those key states where they are very close and could be dragged across the finish line by Clinton.
O`DONNELL: All right, let`s take a look at the candidates on the campaign trail today. Both candidates had events in North Carolina today.
Later in the program, we will take a close look and an important legal challenge to what Democrats say is a voter suppression effort in North Carolina by Republicans.
Both candidates today had the same focus in their closing arguments -- Donald Trump`s temperament.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: I`m also honored to have the greatest temperament that anybody has, because we know how to win.
She spends a billion dollars, she spends so much money -- I see these ads. People that know me, they say how can they say that?
You know, we have -- you know what? We have a temperament because -- we have a certain temperament, it`s a temperament of knowing how to win.
CLINTON: Donald stood on a stage and said, and I quote, "I am honored to have the greatest temperament that anyone`s ever had.
Now he knows we can see and hear him, right? This is someone who at another rally yesterday actually said out loud to himself, stay on point, Donald, stay on point.
His campaign probably put that in the teleprompter, stay on point, Donald, stay on point.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O`DONNELL: And joining the discussion now, Elise Jordan; a former adviser to Senator Rand Paul`s presidential campaign and an Msnbc political analyst.
Also with us, Steve McMahon, a Democratic strategist and the CEO and co- founder of Purple Strategies.
Elise, it still seems for the Clinton campaign, the best material for Hillary Clinton every day is whatever Donald Trump just said.
ELISE JORDAN, FORMER ADVISER TO SENATOR RAND PAUL`S PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN: Well, and that`s why this week has been damaging to her. Just because so much attention has been focused on the FBI and the investigation surrounding her e-mail server.
If she can get back to just pointing out what ridiculous things Donald Trump is saying, and the negativity surrounding Donald Trump, his message this entire campaign, she`s in much firmer, better territory.
O`DONNELL: Steve McMahon, you`ve been in campaigns -- well, I was going to say campaigns like this. I take it back, no one ever has.
No one has ever been in a campaign like this. But you`ve certainly been there where there`s four campaign days left.
Obviously, Hillary Clinton likes keeping the focus on what Donald Trump was talking about today, his temperament.
STEVE MCMAHON, CEO, PURPLE STRATEGIES: Yes, I know exactly. And you know, if you look at the polls, that`s one of the areas where Donald Trump is weakest and Hillary Clinton is strongest.
So, to the extent that they`re both talking about temperament and reminding voters that this is a key voting issue that benefits Hillary Clinton enormously, and it really hurts Donald Trump.
O`DONNELL: Let`s listen to President Obama today staying on the issue of Donald Trump.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: Donald Trump is uniquely unqualified to be president.
No, I`m not joking, you laughed. I`m not joking. He is temperamentally unfit to be commander-in-chief.
Here`s a guy who says he`s a great businessman. But it seems like a lot of his business is built around stiffing small businesses and workers out of what he owes them, work they`ve done.
He thinks -- he thinks that`s cute or smart or funny to basically not pay somebody who`s done work for him and say go ahead and sue me because I`ve got more money than you and you can`t do anything about it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O`DONNELL: Larry Sabato, is that -- is that approach based on voter analysis, that, that is what is working with voters? Talking about Donald Trump`s temperament and character?
SABATO: Oh, absolutely. I mean, this has come through for months, in fact, even before the conventions.
And it`s just as true today as it was then. The two big barriers to Donald Trump becoming president at least attitudinally among voters is, they don`t think he has the temperament to sit in the Oval Office and make those critical decisions.
And they don`t think he`s qualified in terms of experience and background to deal with complex public policy issues.
The more those two things can be stressed, the better for Democrats. And President Obama had a marvelous term there, uniquely unqualified. And again, I think most people would agree with that just based on the facts.
O`DONNELL: All right, let`s look at the latest Clinton campaign ad that goes straight at this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: I`d look her right in that fat, ugly face of hers. He`s a war hero because he was captured. I like people that weren`t captured, OK?
You got to see this guy -- oh, I don`t know what I said, I don`t remember.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Talking of -- maybe using nuclear weapons, nobody wants to hear that from an American president --
TRUMP: Why don`t we make it? Why don`t we make a -- I would bomb the -- out of them. I love war in a certain way.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O`DONNELL: Elise, I think about people like you and Steve wishing you could be in the room working on ads against Donald Trump, because they just serve up -- Donald Trump serves up that material.
JORDAN: Yes, it`s a gift they keep giving when it comes to ads. But you know, back to this temperament issue that we`re talking about and how Clinton and President Obama are trying to stress this on the campaign trail this week.
Out of all the focus groups that I`ve sat in during this campaign season, 32 focus groups, temperament was the absolute number one issue that undecided voters mentioned when it came to pulling the trigger for Donald Trump.
They`re just simply worried about not even what he would do domestically, but internationally. It`s OK if he`s a wrecking ball domestically, but internationally, they are really concerned.
So, this is definitely her closing argument.
O`DONNELL: Yes, so Steve McMahon, never mind the Supreme Court in the last four days of the campaign, would you suggest the Clinton campaign just ignore issues, go straight at Donald Trump, the character?
MCMAHON: Absolutely. She`s got a 40 or 45-point edge on this trait which voters at least point out, think it`s very important to a president.
And I`ve sat in focus groups too and I`ve seen exactly the same thing. Voters are very worried about Donald Trump.
They sort of like the fact that he wants to change Washington, they like -- they would like a little disruption in Washington, a lot of change in broken glass there.
But they don`t want that when it comes to the Middle East or other parts of the world that are dangerous and scary.
They want a steady, solid, experienced leader who`s not going to fly off the handle and you know, push the nuclear codes and get us into -- get us into a war.
O`DONNELL: Steve McMahon, Elise Jordan and Larry Sabato, thank you all for joining us tonight, really appreciate it.
SABATO: Thank you.
MCMAHON: Thank you.
O`DONNELL: Coming up, Melania Trump`s speech today was accompanied by the most inappropriate music ever used by the Trump campaign or any campaign in the history of campaigns, in the history of music.
Ana Marie Cox will give us her take on that speech. And former speechwriter for President George W. Bush, David Frum will join us to explain why he decided to announce today that he voted for Hillary Clinton for president.
O`DONNELL: So, Melania Trump finally stepped up to the microphones today, the microphone, I should say.
But it was not for that press conference that Donald Trump promised six weeks ago in which Melania Trump would produce all of her immigration records and prove to us the legality of her immigration history here in the United States.
Instead, it was to deliver a speech accompanied by the most inappropriate music in the history of the Trump campaign. Ana Marie Cox will join us next, we will bring you some of that speech.
O`DONNELL: OK, that was weird. That is the most inappropriate piece of introductory music ever used at a campaign event. The last line of the lyric you just heard, last line, "sympathy and trust abounding".
And then, for some inexplicable reason, the lyrics stop, they just stop, the music continues, but the lyrics aren`t there, they just stop.
And the very next line, the lyrics that just don`t happen, the next line is "no more falsehoods or derisions." Now it just can`t be possible that the Trump campaign, the campaign of falsehoods and derisions was self-aware enough to realize that they just couldn`t play that lyric today.
It couldn`t be that because if the Trump campaign was so self-aware, then they would never have chosen a hit song from the 1968 Broadway musical "Hair".
"Hair" was Broadway`s first nude musical, which simply means cast members were occasionally semi-naked and fully naked during the show.
But for the most part, they were dressed in the hippy costuming of the day. It was a story of dropping out, and dropping acid and free love and celebration of the hippy lifestyle.
It was aimed at people Donald Trump`s age. Donald Trump graduated from college a month after "Hair" opened on Broadway, but it definitely wasn`t Donald Trump`s kind of show.
It wasn`t for guys in neck-ties trying to make it in the real estate business. It was about as the lyrics said, "harmony and understanding, sympathy and trust abounding, no more falsehoods or derisions.
Golden living dreams of visions, mystic crystal revelation and the mind`s true liberation." The music and the cultural world of people graduating from college in 1968 in Donald Trump`s year.
That world was divided between the hippies singing about loving and understanding and the mind`s true liberation, and Elvis, just unrepentant, 1950s rock and roll.
And so Melania Trump made her entrance today to a song that stands against everything the Trump campaign stands for: sympathy and trust abounding, no more falsehoods or derisions.
And oddly, Melania Trump`s speech was about falsehoods and derisions. Making her the first Trump ever to take a stand against falsehoods and derisions.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: As we know, now social media is a centerpiece of our lives. It can be a useful tool for connection and communication. It can ease the isolation that so many people feel in the modern world.
Technology has changed our universe. But like anything that is powerful, it can have a bad side. We have seen this already.
As adults, many of us are able to handle mean words, even lies. Children and teenagers can be fragile. They are hurt when they are made fun of or made to feel less in looks or intelligence.
This makes their life hard and can force them to hide and retreat. Our culture has gotten too mean and too rough, especially to children and teenagers.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O`DONNELL: Made to feel less in looks and in intelligence. So, the wife of the world`s biggest, wildest, most out-of-control cyber bully wants to assume the position of first lady so that she can stop cyber bullying.
No, this is not a self-aware campaign. Four years ago, Melania Trump`s husband tweeted this: "Cher, I don`t wear a rug, it`s mine, and I promise not to talk about your massive plastic surgeries that didn`t work."
Melania Trump`s husband also tweeted this: "Arianna Huffington is unattractive both inside and out. I fully understand why her former husband left her for a man. He made a good decision."
In 2013, Donald Trump blamed sexual assault in the military, not on the sexual assaulters, but simply on the fact that women were serving in the military.
He tweeted: "twenty six thousand unreported sexual assaults in the military, only 238 convictions. What did these geniuses expect when they put men and women together."
Last year, the most hateful man in social -- in the short history of social media and American politics, Melania Trump`s husband tweeted: "how much money is the extremely unattractive both inside and out Arianna Huffington paying her poor ex-hubby for the use of his name."
Melania Trump did not object or make a speech when her husband retweeted this last year. "If Hillary Clinton can`t satisfy her husband, what makes her think she can satisfy America."
Donald Trump has tweeted that Megyn Kelly is a bimbo. He`s tweeted that a foreign Miss Universe is disgusting. He has attacked Bette Midler`s physical attractiveness on Twitter.
And of course, he has said utterly poisonous things about Rosie O`Donnell, time and time again things that I won`t repeat here.
And I was the first person Donald Trump threatened to sue on Twitter, he`s attacked this show on Twitter for five years, saying it`s "unwatchable", that`s his favorite word for it.
And he first predicted the cancelation of this show five years ago, it was going to happen at any moment back then.
Also on Twitter, Donald Trump has called me a "poor journalist, stupid, a very dumb guy, the dumbest political commentator on television, and the dumbest man on TV."
Today, Donald Trump tweeted about watching his wife`s speech, but he didn`t say anything, anything about her condemnation of cyber bullying.
Joining us now, Ana Marie Cox; senior political correspondent for "MTV News". You know -- and Ana Marie, I was looking at the Trump hits on me, I have to confess, all of which made me laugh.
I mean, but -- and I thought, you know, he never goes after guys` looks. He only does the looks thing with women. And then I found this one. "Lawrence" will -- this is from several years ago.
"Lawrence will soon be off TV, bad ratings, he has a face made for radio." So, he has gone after, at least one guy, on looks.
ANA MARIE COX, SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT, MTV NEWS: Yes, he`s mocked Christie, too, right? --
O`DONNELL: Yes --
COX: So --
O`DONNELL: I guess, yes --
COX: I think that to a certain extent, equal opportunity, but he does save his real venom for women. I mean, that is true.
And, you know -- so, I was working under a theory for a while that Melania was a cylon, OK? Because she has that weird thing where her eyes go back and forth, and she is somewhat alien-looking.
But I have decided that, you know, an android circuit would fry, given the level of irony that it had to sustain today. Like only a truly like delusional human being could give a speech like what she gave and survive it.
You know, computer couldn`t handle it. Because that speech like you pulled out the best part and you`ve shown a lot of the irony.
But Lawrence, just to go a step further beyond Trump himself doing the bullying, what about all his followers who have attacked the journalists, the women and people of the Jewish faith who have covered him negatively.
And who have used Twitter to literally send people into hiding, to literally threaten people`s lives.
And remember the journalist that wrote a profile of Melania and was, you know, deluged with anti-Semitic remarks. And the campaign and Melania herself refused to say anything about it.
O`DONNELL: Yes, and it`s one of those speeches where it just makes you wonder, do these people ever talk to each other. It was all that -- all that portion of it was well-written.
Those were all good ideas, very well-considered stuff. But Donald Trump is just the most glaring, you know, violator of everything Melania Trump talked about today.
COX: Right, you know, I always thought -- I always thought it was a little bit of a shade that Laura Bush chose literacy as her cause when Bush was president, right?
Like I thought that was pretty clever. But this is at another level. Like if this is some tweeting, this is like self-aware spousal some-tweeting.
Like it`s definitely like sticking the knife in. You know, I don`t -- I mean, it is hard to critique, you know, the families, right?
Like I think everyone wants to not go too hard on the families of candidates. You know, a lot of us say things like this person didn`t sign up for that.
But I`ve been thinking, you know what? We don`t know what Melania signed up for. I am sure -- you know, Trump has said he has a prenuptial agreement, right?
Like I imagine it`s pretty long, she`s probably, literally signed up for this --
O`DONNELL: Yes --
COX: I think that --
O`DONNELL: She did --
COX: She might be kind of a safe target.
O`DONNELL: Yes, she definitely did literally sign something. And I think when the families are trying to elect the most dangerous, incompetent president in the history of the presidency in the country, we`ve got a whole different set of what`s relevant and what isn`t.
COX: Right, and when she`s trying to make the argument that somehow the Donald she knows is different than the one that we know, like we`ve seen no evidence of that.
Like this is a rare case where we actually have, you know, evidence of what he`s like when he doesn`t think the cameras are on, right?
And it`s pretty consistent, actually. Like --
O`DONNELL: Yes --
COX: That`s the thing that`s sort of amazing, right?
O`DONNELL: Yes --
COX: Is that there`s no hidden depths to him. There`s no other side of Donald Trump, like he`s exactly the jerk you think he is.
O`DONNELL: And what matters is what a president is going to be publicly. This is who he is publicly.
COX: Right, and also, I mean the temperament argument that, you know, all of the Hillary surrogates are making is a powerful one.
And unfortunately, like you know, we`d like to live in a country and I know you`d like to live in a country where we`re having our disagreements about policy, and certainly, they`re incredibly important policies at hand.
But in the end, it really is about temperament when we elect a president, because there`s not going to be -- we can`t predict every policy problem that comes forward.
We can`t predict everything that will happen in the world. At some point, it`s going to be the president in the Oval Office at his or her desk making a decision about the lives of millions of people.
And we have to have faith that, that decision is going to be made, no, not in anger, you know, not off the handle and not out of like personal peak, which is mainly how Trump seems to operate actually.
O`DONNELL: Ana Marie Cox, thank you very much for joining us tonight, thank you for watching that speech for us today, it was the shortest political speech of the day.
So, thank you, Ana Marie.
COX: Thank you.
O`DONNELL: Up next, David Frum has announced, he announced today that he is voting for Hillary Clinton for president. The former speechwriter for George W. Bush, he will join us with his reasons.
O`DONNELL: When republican governor and former candidate John Kasich voted in the battle ground state of Ohio, Monday. Couldn`t have voted in more important state, he ducked the real choice of Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump for president.
Governor Kasich could not bring himself to vote for Donald Trump, and he couldn`t bring himself to vote for Hillary Clinton, so he wrote in a vote for John McCain. Conservative author and former George W. Bush speechwriter David Frum accepted the real choice and announced today that he voted for Hillary Clinton. He wrote in an op-ed for The Atlantic.
I have no illusions about Hillary Clinton. But she is a patriot. She will uphold the sovereignty and independence of the United States. Joining us now David Frum, the Senior Editor for The Atlantic, David why didn`t you write in John McCain? And what do you say to republicans who are thinking about writing in John McCain or something else?
DAVID FRUM, SENIOR EDITOR OF THE ATLANTIC: Well, I wrote, the article -- I wrote for The Atlantic immediately before. I made the best case I could from a conservative point of view for Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton and a protest candidate. And the case for protest candidate is pretty eloquent. You state what you have to say.
But I don`t believe in gesture politics. I - maybe have to face your alternatives as they are. Only one of two people`s going to be the next president of the United States. And you have to look that alternative square in the face. It was hard for me.
The absentee ballot which I sent stayed in my outbox for about four days. It was a hard thing to do.
O`DONNELL: When did you send it, David?
FRUM: I sent it about a week ago.
O`DONNELL: OK. So, right up to a week ago, OK.
FRUM: And -- but I would say, I`m not one who is greatly swayed by endorsements, but Vladimir Putin`s, that cut a lot of weight with me.
O`DONNELL: Yes. So, that was the thing you`d say in the end weighed the heaviest on you, which one does Vladimir Putin really want?
FRUM: Well, look two things weight the heaviest on me. The first is, I do think we are seeing an attempt to manipulate an American election by an unfriendly foreign power. And it`s really important that that unfriendly power get the strongest signal that this isn`t acceptable. And that Americans will rally to the defense of their government whoever happens to lead it.
And the second thing is I do think Hillary Clinton, I mean the Clintons, I`ve got a lot of critiques of the Clinton foundation. I do think they bend the law. But Hillary Clinton accepts the concept of legality, she accepts that courts are supreme, laws must be complied with and the power of the state is not to be used for persona revenge or personal enrichment. And that`s something - not something I trust Donald Trump to do.
And those basic rules, I said in the article that the system we have is one that protects my rights under a president I don`t approve. That tomorrow we`ll do the same for you. And what people have in common is their commitment to those shared rules. And if you have someone who was a challenger to the shared rules, that`s unacceptable.
And we`ve never seen that before. Not in a long, long time but we see it now.
O`DONNELL: David are you having conversations with the republican friends of yours who are still where you were a couple of week ago still struggling?
FRUM: I know a number of people who are voting for Hillary Clinton. I thnk actually when you hear a lot about shy Trump voters, I think there are actually a lot of shy Clinton voters, especially among women. There are -- I know marriages where they`re both republicans, but the women find this an easier step for very understandable reasons than the men do.
I know a lot of republicans who are making a protest vote, and I don`t complain about that. There are people who say my vote is an expression and that people who say my vote is an instrument. I believe my vote is an instrument, not an expression.
O`DONNELL: David Frum, thank you very much for joining us tonight. Really appreciate it.
FRUM: Thank you.
O`DONNELL: Coming up, Trump campaign is now saying that they`re worried about getting out the vote, but are they telling the truth about that? That`s in tonight`s war room wit with Mike Murphy.
O`DONNELL: Did you get your e-mail from Donald Trump begging for money? He`s sending out e-mails begging for money to finance his get out to vote operation. But Donald Trump doesn`t have a get out to vote operation. What`s up with that? That`s coming up.
But first, here`s how it looked today on the campaign trail.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HILLARY CLINTON, U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE 2016: One way or another come this January, America is going to have a new president.
DONALD TRUMP JR, BUSINESSMAN: If hers is a track record, if hers is experience, I want no experience, OK? Because look at what that experience has got us.
BERNIE SANDERS, U.S. SENATOR: Please remember, that before he was a presidential candidate, he was a leader of the so-called birther movement.
CLINTON: If he doesn`t respect all Americans, how can we trust him to serve all Americans?
TED CRUZ, U.S. SENATOR: We`re all aware that Hillary Clinton has a problem with the truth. Even among politicians, and that does not make her unique in the swamp that is Washington. But Hillary stands out.
DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE 2016: She`s a very dishonest person, probably the most dishonest person ever to run for the office of president.
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Anybody who is upset about a Saturday Night Live skit you don`t want in charge of nuclear weapons.
MELANIA TRUMP, DONALD TRUMP`S WIFE: Make America great again is not just some slogan. It is what has been in his heart since the day I met him.
CLINTON: He has spent his entire campaign offering a dog whistle to his most hateful supporters.
OBAMA: Who you are, what you are, does not change after you occupy the oval office. All it does is magnify who you are. All it does is shine a spotlight on who you are. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
O`DONNELL: Time for tonight`s Campaign War Room. With more than 32 million votes for President already cast including more than 15 million in battle ground states. The focus for the Campaign War Rooms now is turnout, turnout, turnout. Donald Trump`s Campaign sent an e-mail to supporters this week asking them for money because "we are currently executing a highly costly early voting push and get out to vote operation to ensure identified Trump supporters make it to the polls before election day." Republicans strategist Mike Murphy got that e-mail.
And he tweeted a picture of it with this caption, expensive early vote and get out to vote operation. That clearly doesn`t exist, what grifters, con man. With four days left for the Presidential Campaign War Rooms, joining us tonight in the Last Word War Room is Mike Murphy, Republican Campaign Strategist and the host of the pod cast, radio free GOP.
So Mike I have friends who are getting these Trump e-mails, begging for money. This one you say is more fraudulent than most because they don`t even have get out to vote operation?
MIKE MURPHY, REPUBLICAN POLITICAL CONSULTANT: Well, you know, there`s no lower standard in politics than veracity in fund raising e-mail.
O`DONNELL: Yeah, that`s right. That`s right.
MURPHY: On both sides. It`s pretty shameless.
O`DONNELL: Yes, don`t say -
MURPHY: You know I`m the sheriff of corrupt town here trying - but I thought this one was particularly egregious. Now you can argue, there`s a fig leaf. It`s the joint fund raising committee between the Republican National Committee and the nominee to put out the e-mail. And the RNC does do generic things. But the e-mail implies, the technique the copywriter uses is a memo from a strategist from Kellyanne Conwa which has a bunch of polling mambo jumbo. And it doesn`t hold up.
And then the idea they need money for this big, advance GOTV system which the campaign doesn`t have. The Rnc has some of it. So I guess that`s why they`d argue there was a whip of truth. But it was misleading I thought really we`re done to that. We`re conning our own Republican donors about it.
I mean make a Trump appeal. That`s fine but let`s not pretend there`s something that doesn`t exist and try to raise money for it.
O`DONNELL: It still cracks me up that the guy is asking for money. Why ask for money? Why not pump all that Trump money that was supposed to come in. But I want to go to a promise we heard -
MURPHY: Go ahead - yes, I agree. No, that`s a promise we heard for a long time. And he`s put some money in, but not nearly what he said he would. Nut that`s no surprise with Trump.
O`DONNELL: He will - Mike will end up spending less than Mike Bloomberg did to get elected Mayor of New York City.
O`DONNELL: Here`s the count on field offices. Hillary Clinton has more field offices in 41 states including in every battleground state than Donald Trump has. Here are the states where Donald Trump has more field offices than Hillary Clinton, arizona, South Dakota, Arkansas and Mississippi. And Arizona`s the only one of those that`s even in play.
MURPHY: Yes, I mean look there`s no Trump field operation by real campaign standards. There`s the generic stuff the RNC is doing to help congressional races and senate race. And it`s muscular in some places. But Trump is doing none of the enhanced things that a normal Presidential Campaign would do.
They aren`t doing much of anything that a normal presidential campaign would do. There`s no real serious policy staff. I mean the list goes on and on. So what Trump is like the ice capades. It`s a travelling entertainment show from mid size arena to mid size arena selling - I looked into this, fewer tickets than the escapades.
But it is, you know, this concert tour, and we`ll see how that pays off on Election Day. I think with all the noise, you know, about how it`s too close to call and all that. I`m making bets. I think Trump`s going down.
O`DONNELL: All right, so Mike walk us through your bet. On election night, which chips do you expect to see falling on the East Coast? Do you think in the early closings we`ll see Florida go for Hillary Clinton?
MURPHY: Yes, I actually believe Hillary is going to carry Florida. I mean we`ll see. I could be wrong. But even if Trump wins Ohio where he`s a little stronger than Florida and loses Florida. Let`s give him both.
And even if he were to win North Carolina which has more Republican proclivities, he still has to make it up other places I don`t think he can. I don`t think he`s going to poll the inside strait by winning a Pennsylvania or my home state of Michigan. And I think Hillary will win Nevada.
So he`s running around the country now trying to kind of pick her lock. I plan shameless plug on radio pre-GOP to do a little analysis right after the polls close because I know Florida pretty well. And I won`t have to see a lot of returns to be able to make at least a pretty informed guesstimate on that state. I think some of the election like drama maybe a lot less than people are expecting right now.
O`DONNELL: And Mike what do you make of the survey that`s come out of the early voting in Florida that shows a very large crossover of Republicans. Actually showed 28 percent of Republicans in the early vote going to Hillary Clinton?
MURPHY: My guess is that number`s a little high. But I think the point it makes is true. We`ve been, you know, the parties always do this is always this kind of early score keeping. More Republicans based on party registration have voted early than Democrats or more Democrats than Republicans but the margin`s less, you know, there`s all these comparative stats. But I think Trump is going to underperform with Republicans.
Normally you get 95 percent when you win. I think Romney was right around there, maybe 94. I think trump`s Republican number will be in the 80 s somewhere. So one of his many problems is, excuse me, not all these Republican votes by registration are actually Trump votes. I don`t know if it will be 28 to Hillary. But I wouldn`t be surprised if it`s in the high teens, which is twice what it should be in a winning Republican voter model.
O`DONNELL: Mike Murphy, it`s great to get your last word on this campaign as we approach Tuesday, really appreciate it. Thanks, mike.
MURPHY: thanks, Lawrence.
O`DONNELL: Coming up next, the lawyer who fought the North Carolina voter I.D. law will just join us to discuss the case that they brought against voter suppression there in North Carolina
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CLINTON: This has never happened to a major -- to a nominee of a major party just a few days ago Donald Trump was endorsed by the official newspaper of the Ku Klux Klan. They wrote their endorsement under the slogan of his campaign, "make america great again." Do any of us have a place in Trump`s america?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O`DONNELL: That was Hillary Clinton today in North Carolina where the NAACP is suing the state for allegedly violating the National Voter Registration act. The NAACP alleges that several countries in North Carolina have purged some 6,700 people from the voter rolls disproportionately targetting in at least one country Black Democrats. At hearing yesterday a federal judge reinstated those purged voters` rights, calling the way that they were removed, "insane." That was the judge`s word, insane. And the judge said it was out of the Jim Crow Era while Democratic turnout for early voting is outpacing Republican turnout in North Carolina so far.
Black voter turnout is down 16 percent from 2012 and some activists say that that is due to that kind of voter suppression. The Justice Department plans to monitor voting in four counties in North Carolina next Tuesday. Joining us now, Penda Hair who leads the legal team for North Carolina NAACP and could you tell me what the judge found to be insane? And I have to say I`ve heard a lot of judges both speaking and writing from the bench. That`s a word you don`t hear very often.
PENDA HAIR, MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR: Let me say first, Lawrence, that the judge has not yet issued her final decision. But she did make some comments from the bench. And what she found to be insane was that private people mailed pieces of mail to citizen -- voters in the county. And then they took returned mail to the county and asked the county Board of Elections to purge those voters from the roles.
And the counties actually did so on the behest of these private vigilantes. And more than 400 voters were purged in one county and over 60 in another county. And in the larger county, it was thousands of voters who were purged. And a lot of this was done right up until Election Day. . There`s another hearing to purge more voters on Monday in one of these counties.
O`DONNELL: Now current polling shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 47-44 in North Carolina. Let`s listen to the way President Obama described this situation.
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OBAMA: Grace Bell lived in Belhaven, North Carolina her entire life, all 100 years of her life. Just a few weeks ago Republicans challenged her voter registration status and tried to remove her from the voter rolls. Now Grace got her voter registration reinstated. And you better believe she`s going to vote. But this 100-year old woman wasn`t alone in being targeted. The list of voters Republicans tried to purge was two-thirds black and Democratic. That didn`t happen by accident.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O`DONNELL: and is that a pretty fair description of what`s going on?
HAIR: Yes. Mrs. Grace Bell Hardison is one of the plaintiffs in the case that we brought. And she`s lived in that county and voted 23 straight years in a row or elections in a row . And yet she turned up on one of these challenge list and was at risk of being purged and only got her -the challenge withdrawn after the North Carolina NAACP learned about her sorry and made it public. And many, many others in her county are not so lucky and are still subject to having their vote taken away unless the Federal Judge rules, which we believe will happen fairly quickly.
O`DONNELL: If someone has trouble voting in North Carolina, what should they do?
HAIR: Well, they should insist on voting. And if the election officials will not give them a regular ballot, they should ask for a provisional ballot and make sure they are given the provisional ballot. And then afterwards, after the election, the attorneys can keep fighting to get that provisional ballot counted.
O`DONNELL: Penda Hair, thank you for joining us tonight, really appreciate it.
HAIR: Thank you.
O`DONNELL: MSNBC`s live coverage continues into "THE 11TH HOUR" now with Brian Williams. That`s next.