Show: THE LAST WORD WITH LAWRENCE O`DONNELL Date: November 1, 2016 Guest: Tom Bonier, Mark Zandi, Zack Beauchamp
RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC HOST: That does it for us tonight, we will see you again tomorrow, now it`s time for THE LAST WORD with Lawrence O`Donnell, good evening Lawrence.
LAWRENCE O`DONNELL, MSNBC HOST: Hey, Rachel, we`ve got some really big breaking news coming in this hour about what the vote looks like right now in --
MADDOW: Right --
O`DONNELL: Florida, really --
MADDOW: Excellent --
O`DONNELL: Important stuff.
MADDOW: Good stuff, thank you, man --
O`DONNELL: Thanks, Rachel. Moody`s Analytics has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1980. Their new projection includes an exact electoral vote-count. Which is very good news for the Clinton campaign, but that is not the big news of this hour.
We have breaking news that will dominate tomorrow`s campaign coverage. It could be the most important information that we will have before votes are counted a week from tonight.
And that information indicates that a week from tonight, at this very hour, we might already know who the next president of the United States will be.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOE BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I wasn`t going to get started on Trump.
But I think maybe I better take my coat off.
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: It`s time for new leadership.
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This guy is going to be your champion?
BIDEN: Donald Trump is the definition of the abuse of power.
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: This is a man who thinks that he is better than President Reagan, better than President Obama, literally better than anybody, I guess.
TRUMP: I`ve led a great life, and I truly love our country.
OBAMA: This guy?
CLINTON: We just heard from Alisha, she was Miss Universe, can we just stop for a minute and reflect on the absurdity of Donald Trump finding fault with Miss Universe?
BIDEN: I mean, think about what that says about this man`s head.
TRUMP: We will truly make America great again.
OBAMA: Don`t be bamboozled.
TRUMP: Dream big, push for a bold change, and believe in a movement powered by our love for each other.
OBAMA: You don`t want somebody who really doesn`t know what they`re doing or show any curiosity about knowing what they`re doing to hold this job.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O`DONNELL: Tonight is the night to remember the unforgettable words of Tim Russert of 16 years ago -- Florida. We have breaking news tonight about an important new tracking survey of early voters and likely voters in Florida.
This is the first poll in Florida that includes actual early voters, how they have voted. So, this poll is giving us a picture of the early voting results in Florida right now.
And if we can get data like this for only one state, Florida is the state we want. Florida is once again the most important state on the electoral map because Democrats and Republicans all agree that Hillary Clinton has alternative routes to an electoral college victory that do not have to include winning Florida.
But Donald Trump, Donald Trump has no other way. It is virtually impossible to win the electoral college for Donald Trump without Florida`s 29 electoral college votes.
Florida is do or die for the Trump campaign. And Donald Trump`s campaign schedule proves that. Donald Trump has three campaign events tomorrow in Florida.
Hillary Clinton was in Florida today, but tomorrow she will be in Arizona trying to take a Republican state away from Donald Trump.
The Clinton campaign is also purchasing TV ad time in Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico, and Michigan states where she is leading Donald Trump, but wants to prevent any tightening of the race in those states.
But none of that will matter. None of it will matter. None of what`s going on in any of the other battleground states will matter if Hillary Clinton wins Florida.
Some observers have joked that Donald Trump seems to be running for president of Florida, but that`s because Florida means everything to the Trump campaign, and I mean everything.
And tomorrow morning, a new tracking survey of Florida voters conducted by target smart and the college of William & Mary will be released in full.
That survey contains the most important news yet about the early vote in Florida. And joining us now with an advanced look at the data that will be fully released tomorrow is Tom Boner, the CEO of Target Smart; a political data firm.
Tom, what are the basic results you`re finding? What is the state of the race in Florida now with all the information you have?
TOM BONIER, CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, TARGET SMART: Lawrence, so, in our survey, and as you said, we`re releasing the full results tomorrow, but we`re excited to be here to share these results for the first time with anyone publicly.
We see this race as an 8-point spread in favor of Secretary Clinton, 48-40. Which really is challenging the conventional wisdom of what we`ve seen so far.
I will say, in what we`re seeing as has been noted on your show and elsewhere on the network, a lot of the vote in Florida has already been cast and elsewhere.
As of this morning, over 3.6 million votes have been cast. And so what`s unique about this survey is our ability to actually poll people who have voted and see where they are.
And there`s been a lot of analysis of who`s voted by party, but really, no sense given of how they`re voting.
And really what`s fueling this, honestly, somewhat surprising 8 percent margin for Secretary Clinton is the fact that she`s performing incredibly strongly with registered Republican voters.
So, what we`re seeing in this survey is Secretary Clinton is winning 28 percent of registered Republicans who have already cast the ballot in Florida. And that`s a pretty --
O`DONNELL: Tom --
BONIER: Substantial universe --
O`DONNELL: Tom, let me stop you right there, you`re going to have to say that sentence again, because the political media out there is taking notes right now.
That is a stunning figure that you just announced.
BONIER: It is.
O`DONNELL: Twenty eight percent of Republican early voters in Florida voting for Hillary Clinton.
BONIER: That`s right. So, this includes voters who have voted by mail, absentee voters who tend to trend more Republican, and then also voters who have voted -- early voted in person tend to trend more Democratic.
But that`s it, keep in mind, we`re talking only about voters who are registered Republicans, and 28 percent of those voters are crossing over and voting for Secretary Clinton.
When we look at the other side and we look at registered Democrats, there are no such defections. Donald Trump is winning only 6 percent of registered Democrats who have voted so far in this election.
And when we look at the overall landscape, there`s almost an identical number of registered Republicans and Democrats who have voted.
It`s a difference of about .4 percent. So, this is really making up the difference that we`re seeing in this poll is this substantial crossover vote.
O`DONNELL: And what is the Clinton-winning percentage at the moment with early voters?
BONIER: So, overall, she`s up 28 points, and she`s (INAUDIBLE) 53 percent with early voters.
O`DONNELL: So, Hillary Clinton is at 53 percent just with the early vote?
BONIER: That`s right.
O`DONNELL: And so, going into election day, your -- this is a survey in which you have actual results. You have spoken to actual voters. You`ve got their results. And then you also project what likely voters are likely to do on election day.
And so the combination of those two things, what looks like a big win, an over 50 percent win, 53 percent win for Hillary Clinton in early voters combines with what happens on election day. And that`s where you get Hillary Clinton ending up with 48, Donald Trump with 40 in Florida.
BONIER: That`s right, it`s this massive 28 percent margin, it`s a significant crossover, we`ve been hearing in this election really from the beginning since the general election started, that there was a significant universe of registered Republican voters.
We`ve seen this at the top of the ticket with Republican-elected officials who have been defecting and saying they could not support Donald Trump.
But there`s been an open question as to when it came time to vote, would these voters actually walk into the polling place, and would they be able to cast a vote for Secretary Clinton. And then also a second question of how much enthusiasm would we see among these voters.
And the numbers we`re seeing, again, this massive lead with 28 percent of registered Republicans crossing over and voting for Secretary Clinton suggests that yes, these are people who have already voted.
That yes, these Republican voters are not just saying to pollsters for months that they`re going to cross over and vote, but they are literally doing it in Florida and likely elsewhere.
And it speaks to the intensity that these are voters who are not waiting for election day. They`re getting out, in some cases, a week, two weeks before election day to cast the ballot.
O`DONNELL: So, Tom, this is the voter personification of the Never Trump people that we`ve been seeing on shows like this for months now, saying that they would not vote for Donald Trump.
And as you say, it`s been a little bit of a mystery of what will they do, will they go third party, will they not vote, will they vote for Hillary Clinton?
Twenty eight percent of registered Republican voters in the early vote in Florida voting for Hillary Clinton.
BONIER: Yes, that`s exactly right. And it`s important to keep in mind in what makes this survey unique in our partnership with William & Mary and our team at Target Smart is that we are actually compiling the data in terms of each -- on an individual level who is voting each day.
And so, when I say over 3.6 million voters have voted, we have that list. Now, keep in mind we don`t know how they voted, that`s not reported, that`s why we poll.
But we`re really combining the analysis, the great analysis that folks have done, looking at the early vote data and what has been lacking in a lot of polling out there, and actually being able to survey these people who have voted, and that`s how we`re able to draw this conclusion.
And that`s why, even though these results may seem surprising at face value, when you dig in deeper, and you look at these early voters and you see this crossover, and I will say, these are voters who are actually -- we`ve seen evidence that they are returning to the Republican fold-down ticket.
We did look at the U.S. Senate race, and that`s still a very close race. But we are seeing these Republican voters who are crossing over and voting for Secretary Clinton who are then going back and voting Republican in the Senate race.
So, it really is an interesting crossover effect. It is completely consistent with, as you mention, the Never Trump movement that we`ve been seeing, really, from the outset of this general election. And for that reason, it`s not as surprising as you might think.
O`DONNELL: And Tom, just quickly, before you go, because I know people are, you know, tweeting all over the country right now and texting this. The methodology of how you know how the early voter has voted.
BONIER: So, the Florida Department of Elections actually produces a report every day saying here`s a list of people who have voted.
And again, it`s important to reinforce here, because people often hear this and they get a little bit frightened by hearing this. It doesn`t say which candidate they supported, to be clear about that.
It simply says that they`ve cast an early vote. And that gives us the ability to match that back to our data and go back and survey these people and find a little bit more about the ballot that they cast as they voted early.
O`DONNELL: So, you basically exit polling by calling them, you say OK, this person`s voted, here`s a number of people who voted.
Let`s call a bunch of them, let`s get a sample, let`s see what they tell us about -- who they voted for.
BONIER: That`s right. Though I`d even add that it`s significantly more accurate than exit polls. We all remember in 2000 when the exit polls got it wrong.
In this case because we know exactly the distribution by age, gender and party, we can construct a sample that`s perfectly representative of the people who have voted this far.
O`DONNELL: Tom Bonier, thank you very much for this exclusive look at your new data tonight, very important, thank you --
BONIER: Thank you --
O`DONNELL: Very much --
BONIER: My pleasure --
O`DONNELL: Really appreciate you joining us. And we`re joined now by Elise Jordan; a former adviser to Senator Rand Paul`s presidential campaign and an MSNBC political analyst.
Maria Teresa Kumar; President and CEO of Voto Latino and an MSNBC contributor. And Elise, I want to go first to you, these are your Republicans we`re talking about. And in Florida, we have 28 percent of registered Republicans voting for Hillary Clinton.
ELISE JORDAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: That`s absolutely staggering if the number holds. I really had in my head that Donald Trump probably was going to win Florida, howbeit, it was going to still be a very close race.
But this would basically -- if this percentage holds and Republicans are coming out in such a strong percent for Hillary Clinton, he`s in huge trouble in the Sunshine State.
You know, consider that exit polls in 2004, Republican voters, 6 percent voted for John Kerry, in `08, 9 percent voted for Barack Obama.
If 28 percent of Republicans in Florida are voting for Donald Trump, he has a huge problem on his hands. And it could -- you know, he can`t win the presidential election without winning Florida.
O`DONNELL: Maria Teresa Kumar, Marco Rubio running for Senate in that state, the guy who called Donald Trump a con man --
MARIA TERESA KUMAR, MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR: Right --
O`DONNELL: Hit him very hard, running on the same ticket with Donald Trump, and here we see this massive crossover of Republicans voting for Hillary Clinton in Florida.
That`s Hillary in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, right now just arriving at her event. And if she wins Florida, Maria Teresa, and if she wins by a significant margin, we could know that by this time, 10:15 on election night.
KUMAR: It`s thrilling, isn`t it? But I wish Tom was still on, because what I wanted to ask him was if he knew exactly what that -- he said that he needed demographic make-up.
What we`re seeing about Latinos we`re hearing is that there`s an uptick in early voting within the Latino community in Florida.
So, it would be interesting as how many of that early vote is Cubans crossing over for Hillary Clinton and then going back for Marco Rubio.
I would also like -- would have liked to ask him, how many of them are older voters that basically -- you know, habitually come in and register and participate and vote early.
But really, it`s looking at the Cuban vote. If the Cuban vote is switching parties for the very first time for Hillary Clinton, that`s big news.
And it talks about the tsunami of the Latino voter that we`re seeing elsewhere in Clark County in Nevada, that we`re seeing in North Carolina, that we`re seeing even in Texas.
So, it will be -- that will be the question I would ask him, would be, so Tom, how is the -- how is the Cuban voter-tracking? Because how goes the Cuban voter in this case? We may be seeing a tsunami Latino participation.
O`DONNELL: Well, let`s just ask the control room, is Tom still with us? Is he still wired up? Can he take that question?
Yes, Tom, Maria Teresa Kumar is wondering what you`re finding in the Cuban vote, if you`ve identified that in this polling.
BONIER: So, the constraints of the sample size make it difficult to go down to that level of granularity. What I can say, certainly, connecting what we`re seeing in the crossover Republican vote, it stands to reason that the Cuban vote is playing an important role in that.
And I will say to the point you made also, we are seeing a surge in the Latino vote in general, in Florida and elsewhere.
Where the likely share, we can talk about the share of people who have already voted. And again, keeping in mind, this is a really significant universe.
By tomorrow, there`s a good chance that over 4 million people will have voted in Florida. So, we don`t have sample size issues there.
And so we can certainly say that it looks like Latino voters will make up significantly larger share of the electorate in Florida than they have ever in 2012, 2008, or any election.
And certainly, when we look at these early vote numbers, they point to a very motivated Latino base, and that`s registered Democrats, and that`s also potentially registered Republicans and Cuban voters crossing over.
O`DONNELL: Tom, let me get a quick question here about the timing of this. Did this survey include the period after that FBI letter came out on Friday?
BONIER: So, that`s an important question, and I will tell you the vast majority of the survey or respondents were interviewed before last Friday.
We did interview respondents over the weekend, I think what we`re seeing here is the same thing that we`re seeing in the national surveys, in that, you really aren`t seeing a persuasion effect here.
And I think to the extent that it has been reported as we`ve seen some of the national surveys tighten after last Friday that really hasn`t been about Democratic voters defecting from Secretary Clinton.
It`s been about a different in turnout intensity. And that`s really not a great way to measure intensity when you`re asking people whether or not they`re likely to vote. In this case we`ve actually seen whether or not they`ve voted.
O`DONNELL: Let`s cut in and listen to Secretary Clinton and the possibility that maybe someone whispered this information to her as she was heading for the podium.
CLINTON: In seven days, we focus on what`s important! Don`t get distracted! Don`t get diverted! Focus on the kind of country and world that we want to help create!
That`s what I have done! I have stayed focused on one thing, on you, on your lives, your families, the problems that keep you up at night! And that`s what I am doing now, because I know the day after the election, that`s what really counts!
Ask yourself, what kind of president and commander-in-chief do we need to get the economy working for everyone? Not just those at the top! Who can keep us safe and lead the world with intelligence and steadiness and strength!
Who can begin to heal the divides that have been exacerbated between us and bring Americans together again! Well, I`ll tell you what!
Donald Trump has proven himself to be temperamentally unfit and unqualified to be president of the United States.
And, you know, I don`t say that about everybody. I have known a lot of the people who ran for president on both sides, Republicans and Democrats.
I disagreed with them, don`t get me wrong, but I never thought they were unfit to serve. Donald Trump is different. He has proven himself unfit.
And what he is doing with his conspiracy theories, with his insulting, with his demeaning and degrading millions of Americans proves he should not be allowed anywhere near the White House.
You know, on the one hand, you got to feel kind of sorry about the kind of campaign he`s running, don`t you?
I mean, he starts out by insulting immigrants, he moves on to insult all Latinos, insults African-Americans, insults Muslims, insults people with disabilities. Insults POWs and then insults women! I mean --
Really, by the time you add up all the people he`s insulted, that`s more than half the population of the United States!
But here`s the good news. The good news is there`s another vision for America that`s on the ballot. Instead of dark and divisive, it is hopeful and inclusive.
It`s big-hearted, not small-minded. It`s about lifting people up, not tearing each other down.
It`s a vision that says -- and I believe this with all my heart. We are stronger together. There is nothing we can`t do if we make up our minds to do it!
And we believe in America that is great because it is good. We believe in America --
O`DONNELL: That`s Hillary Clinton sounding energized tonight in Fort Lauderdale. It`s possible that the information about this new Florida survey was passed to her after it was delivered from this television show in the minutes before she got to that podium.
That`s information showing that Hillary Clinton is winning the early vote in Florida by 55 -- 53 percent in the latest data in that survey.
And really surprisingly, she is winning 28 percent of Republican early voters in the state of Florida. If Hillary Clinton wins Florida, no one believes there is a route to victory in the electoral college for Donald Trump.
Florida could end this presidential campaign for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on election night, one week from tonight.
There is more good news for the Clinton campaign tonight. The Moody`s Analytics presidential election model projects a win for Hillary Clinton.
Moody`s has accurately predicted every presidential election since 1980. The Moody`s electoral map projects Hillary Clinton to win 332 electoral votes to Donald Trump`s 206.
Joining us now is Mark Zandi; chief economist of Moody`s Analytics. Mark, tell us what your projection is based on.
MARK ZANDI, CHIEF ECONOMIST, MOODY`S ANALYTICS: There are six factors that influence the result, three political ones. So, there`s -- you know, what we`re predicting here is a share of the vote that goes to the incumbent party.
And so, it`s based on the share that went to the incumbent party in the last election. The president`s approval rating, that`s another factor that matters a lot.
And there`s a fatigue factor. So, if the incumbent party has been in office for two terms, it`s very difficult to win the third. It happens, you know, so, for example, Reagan, Reagan-Bush, Roosevelt, Roosevelt- Truman, but you know, it`s tough.
And statistically, you get penalized for that. Then there`s three economic variables. Again, at the state level because this is being done at an electoral college level.
The first is the growth in income after inflation on a household basis. House price growth because that goes to people`s wealth, the middle part of the income distribution, the home owners and that matters.
And the change in gasoline prices, that`s kind of a proxy for how people think about the cost of living. So, it`s all of those six factors that go into producing these results.
And again, it`s at a state electoral college level.
O`DONNELL: And so one thing you`re not actually using are these state-by- state polls of the candidates, one candidate versus the other candidate. It`s economic conditions and --
ZANDI: Yes --
O`DONNELL: And more general political conditions in the country.
ZANDI: Yes, exactly right. And so, this has nothing to do with the polls, a totally different methodology, coming at it from a completely different angle.
You know, I`m an economist, just the economy stupid and that`s what this model is about. We use the state of the economy, you know, in Florida, in Ohio and California and Wisconsin.
We account for that and based on that, we -- and accounting for political sort of dynamics, we predict who is going to win each state.
O`DONNELL: Let`s take a look at one of the -- one of the charts that`s easy to make sense of, even for non-economists, and that`s the gasoline prices, how gas prices --
ZANDI: Right --
O`DONNELL: Affect a presidential election. So, you look at 1980, and that`s Jimmy Carter running for re-election, and gas prices are through the roof.
They are higher than they`ve ever been. And Jimmy Carter lost his re- election, Ronald Reagan won, gas prices dropped. Four years later, Ronald Reagan, easy re-election win. Let`s take a look at gas prices in 2016.
This incredible drop in gasoline prices --
ZANDI: Right --
O`DONNELL: Which is, if the Democrats were designing this chart for their re-election campaigns, this is what they`d want to see.
ZANDI: Yes, exactly, so I live in suburban Philadelphia, that`s where I grew up. The cost of a gallon of regular unleaded is $2.25, $2.30.
You know, that`s about as good as it gets, right? I mean, so, you know -- and people, that`s a very visceral. I mean, they -- when you drive in to work, you look at the gas prices, and that`s kind of a way of thinking about the cost of living.
And if the gas prices are low, you think, OK, the cost of living isn`t increasing all that much, I feel pretty good about things, and you know, obviously, that helps the incumbent party.
So, that would be a big plus for the Clinton campaign.
O`DONNELL: And Mark, as we`ve already discussed tonight, there is now what could be a massive crossover vote of Republicans voting for the Democrat.
And that`s not even part of the dynamic that you`re calculating here to give Hillary Clinton over 330 electoral votes.
ZANDI: No, not at all. Although, it is interesting, there are, you know, a few states that are very close, so, just to give you a sense of it.
North Carolina by our model is very close. Now, it goes Republican in our model, but by a very slim margin. And Nevada is very close, and that goes Democratic by a slim margin.
Florida is very close, not surprisingly, Ohio is very close, New Hampshire. So, some of the swing states are very close.
And interesting -- here`s an interesting fact that I don`t -- this is made too much in the weeks. But if you model the election in an accounting level in those swing states, it turns out the election really revolves around one county in each swing state.
And it`s about turnout in that county, so, for example, Ohio, the key county is Cuyahoga County. Cuyahoga County is Cleveland, very Democratic and it`s really about turnout.
In Florida, it`s Pinellas County, Pinellas County is Tampa, and you know, it`s really about turnout in Pinellas County.
In Colorado which -- so, you know, effectively, we`re electing the president of the United States, the most important person on the planet, the most powerful person on the planet in five, six counties across the county.
O`DONNELL: Bottom line, your analytical model has never been wrong, and it now projects Hillary Clinton to win presidential election a week from tonight. Mark Zandi, thank you very much for joining us tonight, really appreciate it.
ZANDI: Thank you.
O`DONNELL: Coming up, things do not look good for Donald Trump, but he did get an important endorsement, endorsement that tells you everything you need to know about the Trump campaign.
The Ku Klux Klan wants to make America great again.
O`DONNELL: And we have breaking news now from President Obama on the Dakota Access Pipeline. The president was asked about the construction of the Dakota Access Pipeline tonight, which the Standing Rock Sioux tribe has been protesting for several months now along with tribes from all over North America. This is an exclusive look at what the president said tonight to now this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: One thing the candidates aren`t really talking about is the Dakota Access Pipeline. Is that something you would consider intervening in? People have called for your administration to make a call?
BARACK OBAMA, U.S. PRESIDENT: We`re monitoring this closely, and you know, I think, as a general rule, my view is that there is a way for us to accommodate sacred lands of Native Americans and I think that right now the army corps is examining whether there are ways to reroute this pipeline.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That`s a possibility, right?
OBAMA: So, we`re going to let it play out for several more weeks and determine whether or not this can be resolved in a way that I think is properly attentive to the traditions of the first Americans.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O`DONNELL: Everyone at the Standing Rock Sioux tribe will be hanging on every word of what the president said about that tonight. That is the second time the president has addressed this. He was asked about it once before on a foreign trip to Asia. Coming up, the Ku Klux Klan is now publicly supporting Donald Trump. Big front page article supporting Donald Trump in the Klan newspaper, but first, here`s what it looked like today on the campaign trail.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: One week from the change you`ve been waiting for your entire life. One week away.
OBAMA: This guy? Don`t be bamboozled. A man you can bait with a tweet is not somebody you want with nuclear weapons.
TRUMP: Hillary Clinton has been there for 30 years, and she`s accomplished nothing. She`s just made things worse.
CLINTON: I have tried to stay focused in this campaign, not at the barrage of insults. My opponent can say whatever he wants about me. I don`t really care.
DONALD TRUMP JR, SON OF DONALD TRUMP: We`re probably running against the most corrupt politician in the history of the presidential race.
JOE BIDEN, U.S. VICE PRESIDENT: Everywhere I go, my word as a Biden, they - no matter whether they are friend or foe, they say to me, Trump, that`s not real, is it?
SEN. TIM KAINE (D-VA), U.S. VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: People who trust Donald Trump get tricked by Donald Trump, get hurt by Donald Trump.
GOV. MIKE PENCE (R-IN), U.S. VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If only for their decades of self-dealing, conflict of interest, the politics of personal enrichment, and their outright corruption. We must decide here and now, in this great state that Hillary Clinton will never be elected president of the United States of America.
BILL CLINTON, FMR U.S. PRESIDENT: Maybe you got to be a 70-year-old white southerner to know what make America Great again really means. I know what it means.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
O`DONNELL: We`re back with more on our breaking news report tonight on the early vote in Florida. The Target Smart William and Mary survey of early voting in Florida, that`s basically an exit poll of early voters shows Hillary Clinton winning 53 percent of the early vote in Florida as of now with a shocking statistic inside that. 28 percent of Republican early voters voting for Hillary Clinton, just six percent of democratic early voters voting for Donald Trump, that is a normal level of party crossover on the democratic side, six percent going to Trump.
But 28 percent of early Republican voters in Florida going to Hillary Clinton, we`re joined now by Eugene Robinson, opinion writer for the Washington Post and an MSNBC political analyst. Eugene if these numbers hold up, and if the projection, then, of Hillary Clinton on election night, a week from tonight at the -- running at 48 percent in Florida against Donald Trump`s 40 percent in Florida, when those results come in, if they come in like that, the election is over.
EUGENE ROBINSON, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes, it`s over at that moment. And look, if those numbers are right, who knows. W e may think it`s over even before then. I mean the 28 percent of Republicans voting for Hillary Clinton, you know, you take a survey, and you find what you find, right?
And so on its face, that just sounds like a number that almost can`t be. But if it`s anywhere near that then this election, not only that Florida fall to Hillary Clinton but this election overall could, you know -- we could be talking landslide. And so that`s a fascinating finding. And it is based on actual voter behavior, obviously, you know, in one week we`ll be, we`ll know a bit more than we know now. Pardon me there. That was exactly one week we`ll be - we`ll know what happened in Florida.
O`DONNELL: It strikes me that this is the audience of Charlie Sikes. This is the audience of all of these Republicans who entered the never Trump zone months and months ago. Some of them a year ago, and we`ve never seen anything like that with either party. And Paul Ryan, who is very reluctantly willing to say that he voted for Trump and nothing else, won`t be seen with him. There had to be a one would expect there to be a Republican voter effect from all that disaffection with Donald Trump among leading Republicans, and this could be it.
ROBISON: You know, Lawrence, in all the sort of last-minute, October surprises and all the back and forth. One thing we seem to have forgotten is that the Republican Party is basically Afghanistan, right? It is -- it is a mess. It has fallen apart. There is no central authority.
And huge a sections or sectors of the Republican Party have always rejected Donald Trump and have never warmed to the idea that he represents the party of Lincoln. And as it turns out, I suspect won`t vote for him. Now we`ll see, again, this, this Florida finding would tend to confirm what we should have known based on what`s happened this year all along, which is that there are a lot of establishment Republicans who really, really have a hard time swallowing the idea of Trump.
O`DONNELL: Last night Rachel Maddow reported that the Ku Klux Klan was endorsing Donald Trump, today your newspaper, the Washington Post interviewed Thomas Robb who is the head of the Klan. And he tried to split hairs here saying it`s not officially endorsing Trump, but we really do like his candidacy, we like a lot of his views. The Trump campaign now tonight just moments ago in fact after we had publicly said we`re going to talk about this.
The Trump campaign released a statement saying, Mr. Trump and the campaign denounces hate in any form. This publication is repulsive and their views do not represent the tens of millions of Americans who uniting behind our campaign. And I`m sure that`s true that they don`t represent the view of tens millions of Donald Trump`s voters.
But they may very well represent the view of millions of Donald Trump`s voters.
ROBINSON: Right, right. I mean look, I think we know by now where white supremacists are going in this election.
O`DONNELL: Yes. There`s one place to go.
ROBINSON: Exactly they got one place to go, and they`re going for Donald Trump. And so I`m glad they put out the statement. I haven`t read the whole statement that they certainly should have said, you know, don`t vote for me, because that`s, you know, because that`s not what, you`re not going to - you`re not going to get what you want if you vote for me.
If the statement went on and said that, then I would probably think a bit more of it than if it just said, you know, they don`t represent the views of most of my supporters. But I still want their votes. That`s a bit different to me.
O`DONNELL: But they did let the story sit there for a day. It took them a full 24 hours to get out their in condemnation of the endorsement of the KKK. Eugene Robinson, thank you very much for joining us tonight. I really appreciate it.
ROBINSON: Great to be here Lawrence.
O`DONNELL: Coming up, last night we discussed the worst thing that`s happening to the Trump campaign outside of the campaign field, and that is the incredible and surprising success that the Iraqi military campaign is having in Mosul. There is more news on that, coming up.
O`DONNELL: That`s gunfire in a village just outside Mosul after Iraqi and Coalition Forces took back that territory from Islamic State Fighters. Mosul is the last city that ISIS controls in Iraq. And today Iraqi forces pushed their way into the eastern edge of the city. They`re actually in the city now.
It`s the first time Iraqi troops have set foot in the city in more than two years. This is ahead of schedule in this campaign. Coalition Forces also took back the city`s state television station with the help of U.S. Airstrikes. Civilians are fleeing the city. They are afraid that the Islamic State fighters will use them as human shields as they have done in the past. Military advisers also concerned that Islamic State Fighters will conduct suicide bombings and booby trap homes. The U.S. Military estimates the Islamic State has 3,000 to 5,000 fighters still in Mosul.
Last night I said that could be the worse thing to happen to Donald Trump`s campaign outside of the actual battle ground states. Donald Trump has been insulting U.S. generals and military strategists planning this campaign saying it would not work, saying Mosul is a disaster, saying it is hopeless. Donald Trump could not be more wrong. This is very close now to the Iraqi Military completely retaking Mosul.
Up next, what is Russia up to in this presidential campaign? What is the Trump connection to Russia? a lot of new stories this week, what do we know? What do we not know?
O`O`DONNELL: Hillary Clinton is campaigning in Forth Lauderdale, Florida tonight. Donald Trump has three events in Florida Tomorrow. But Hillary Clinton may already have won the state. According to our breaking news report tonight a new survey of early voting in Florida basically exit polling of the early voters in Florida show Hillary Clinton winning the early vote in Florida by at least 53 percent.
Hillary Clinton at least 53 percent of the early vote in Florida. And a stunning cross over vote of Republicans for Hillary Clinton in Florida. This survey indicates that 28 percent of the early voters of registered Republicans in Florida 28 percent of those registered Republicans have voted for Hillary Clinton. This survey with polling of likely voters on Election Day projects Hillary Clinton to win Florida 48 to 40 against Donald Trump. If Donald Trump does not win Florida he has no route to the Presidency.
Florida once again could decide this election. And this time it could decide this election early on election night one week from tonight. At this hour one week from tonight if Florida votes the way this survey projects it will vote we will probably know at this hour that Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States, up next Donald Trump`s Russian Connection.
Donald Trump is more critical of Paul Ryan than he is of Vladimir Putin. Donald Trump attacked all of his Republicans Presidential Primary opponents in ways he would never dream of criticizing Vladimir Putin. New reports have emerged this week about Donald Trump`s connection to Russia. In Mother Jones, David corn reported the findings of an unnamed former Intelligence officer who says that Russian Intelligence had compromised Trump during his visits to Moscow and could blackmail him. But even before any of these recent reports, there is already enough in the public record to indicate that Vladimir Putin probably does have a real favorite in this Presidential Race.
Joining us now, Malcolm Nance former Counter Terrorism Intelligence Officer and an MSNBC Contributor. He is the author of the Plot to Hack America, how Putin`s super spies and Wikileaks tried to steal the 2016 election. Also with us Zack Beauchamp World Correspondent at VOX. Zach on the current state of Russian connection information on Donald Trump, what do we know? And what do we not know?
ZACK BEAUCHAMP, VOX MEDIA: Look there had been allegations this week that Donald Trump is actually a Russian agent. That he`s communicating with Russian State Intelligence Forces. That`s not substantiated in the least and probably isn`t true.
What we do know for a fact is that Russia is interfering the U.S. Election hacking Democrat Institutions and Clinton Aides and stealing their information and publicizing them in a bid to derail the Clinton Campaign whether they want chaos or actually think they can make Donald Trump as president isn`t clear. But what is clear is that the Russians doesn`t want Hillary Clinton and clearly they think Donald Trump would be a better president from their point of view.
O`DONNELL: Malcolm Nance, given everything we`ve known in the past several weeks and months, everything you`ve found in your book and the new spate of articles that have come out in the last few days about the Russian connection, what is your current - what would be your current description of what you believe the Trump/Russian connection to be?
MALCOLM NANCE, MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR: Well, I think Zach`s article sort of touched on what I spent quite a bit of time researching. However I do believe that Trump has been co-opted by Russian Intelligence and Vladimir Putin`s spy master and Chief himself over the last five years. The difference is that the hacks were done as a cyber warfare, political warfare operation to support Trump and to get Trump elected because Trump`s entire platform is the Kremlin`s platform, starting with the dissolution and breakup of NATO, the European Union and allowing them to run rampant in Eastern Europe.
O`DONNELL: And Malcolm is it your sense that which came first here? Donald Trump`s policies and then Vladimir Putin`s affection for those policies or how did those policies get developed in the Trump world?
NANCE: Well, I think it all goes back to the Ms. Universe Pageant in Moscow. And Trump wanted to be -- he was surrounded with oligarchs. And these are billionaires with real billions, hundreds of billions of dollars. And, you know, in the intelligence community we have an acronym that we use when they recruit agents. It`s called MICE, M-I-C-E. And first M is the letter for money.
The next is ideology then comes co-option or coercion and then ego. These are the four factors where they recruit agents. And Trump wants to be an oligarch. He wants the assets of Russia. And so he`s spent quite a bit of time listening to their concerns and adopted them themselves. But there are strings all over Donald Trump and his campaign.
O`DONNELL: Zach, what`s your reading of which came first, the Donald Trump policies and then Vladimir Putin`s attention or somehow something getting into the Trump system to make him advance these policies? ...
BEAUCHAMP: Yes, I think Donald Trump has a long-standing and consistent and clear ideology which is that he believes that the United States should pursue its own interests in the form of money. That is it should control territory and take stuff that it thinks would give itself more money. He doesn`t understand that`s not how international trade or economics work.
He basically thinks of it as a giant game of monopoly or sort of rental development. And, as such he thinks - He basically agrees with the Russians, that NATOs is not in America`s interests because NATO - well U.S. allies in NATO aren`t paying the united States for the privilege of protection. Now the fact that this under write security in Europe and global trade and then benefit the United States to host otherwise doesn`t cross his mind.
But the point that there`s this instinctive set of ideas that he brings to the table whether their developed through something in his childhood or developed through, you know, his experience as a real estate developer, it`s really hard to say. But I think that basically, his personality and world view incline him to share certain key ideas with the leadership of the Kremlin even though they come at it from different perspectives.
O`DONNELL: And Donald Trump Jr. said years ago that the Russians make up a disproportionate amount of investments into Trump assets and Trump deals. And Malcolm that predates Donald Trump`s political career but having already infiltrated financially that way. And they could have been just doing it for financial reasons and for financial gain.
Now they`re in --Putin`s oligarch friends are in Trump world. Those would be strings that Putin could not resist pulling I would assume.
NANCE: Absolutely and you have to understand Vladimir Putin is a former Director of the KGB. I mean he made his bones under Boris Yeltsin, dissolving and selling off assets of Russia, which were sold into the global real estate market. And that laundered all the money from Russia. For him to actually see someone who`s coming in, who he could co-opt would actually be the greatest intelligence coup ever in the history of Russia. And Vladimir Putin would not miss that opportunity. And that`s what the hacks were for.
O`DONNELL: Well tonight`s report on the Florida vote has to be very disappointing for Vladimir Putin. Zach Beauchamp and Malcolm Nance, thank you both for --