Summary
NBC News: Abortion rights wins in Kansas. Polls now close in all five states holding primaries. Key primary races in AZ, KS, MI, MO, WA. Voters in Kansas cast ballots on abortion amendment. Senator Manchin on carried interest loophole. Pelosi arrives in Taiwan despite outrage from China.
Transcript
STEPHANIE RUHLE, MSNBC HOST: Tonight, polls are now all close. We`re live at the big board with the latest in this critical primary races. We`ll break down what voter choices today could mean for the future of election integrity and abortion rights in this country.
Then, I go one-on-one with Joe Manchin on tax reform and climate bill. It could be a big win for the Biden administration, and the GOP is not happy, but is he worry?
Plus, Speaker Pelosi`s controversial trip to Taiwan, what she hopes to accomplish while infuriating China, as THE 11TH HOUR gets underway on this Tuesday night.
Good evening, once again, and here we go. I`m Stephanie Ruhle, and there is big news on this big primary night. NBC News projects voters in the state of Kansas have overwhelmingly voted to keep the protection of abortion rights in their state constitution. This was the first test of the right to choose at the polls since the Supreme Court ended Roe vs. Wade. Kansas is one of five states picking nominees for the November midterm elections, which is now just 98 days away. And the polls have now officially closed in all five states.
Also on the ballot tonight, the former President and his falsehoods about election fraud. He is backing several Republican candidates who are outright 2020 election deniers who fully endorsed the big lie that Donald Trump should somehow still be president. Again, that`s a lie.
So let`s get right to it. You know who I`m talking about, Steve Kornacki, back at the big board. Steve, where do things stand right now?
STEVE KORNACKI, MSNBC NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. Well, Stephanie, you said the biggest story so far the night clearly, this one, Kansas, this referendum, a constitutional amendment that would say the Constitution in the state of Kansas does not provide for the right to abortion, goes down to defeat -- goes down to defeat, as you say, overwhelmingly. This is a tremendous surprise what happened here, a lot of people did not see the fact of no winning coming, nor the magnitude of. And I think is going to be significant political repercussions from this result.
Also, the potential here just in terms of you see where the no vote. There are lot of energy in the suburbs of Kansas City, Democrats have been saying, hey, that`s the area that those are the kinds of voters who are going to turn out in November two for Democrats. We`ll see if that happens. But this is the biggest headline of the hour, certainly. Also, though, right now playing out is a very close House race in Western Michigan in a very significant one, too. It`s the third congressional district here. Now, more than 60% of the voters in Peter Meijer is a freshman Republican congressman, who one of his first votes as a member of Congress was to impeach -- vote to impeach Donald Trump following January sixth. He has drawn a Trump back challenger, might Gibbs -- excuse me, John Gibbs here and Meijer has taken the lead. Meijer was widely considered the underdog coming into this race today. Meijer has just taken the lead.
Most of the remaining vote is in Kent County, Grand Rapids that is Meijer`s political base. Absolutely. He has a chance to pull this thing out. That would be significant. We`ve seen a lot of House Republicans who would have -- of those 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, a lot of them retired. One of them was defeated in a primary, one of them did get through a primary. But Trump didn`t have anything to do with that primary. This would be the first time you`d see -- if he wins, it`d be the first time, you have a House Republican who voted to impeach Trump actually survive a primary where Trump endorsed his rival. That`s a huge if right now. But Meyer is in the game. That in and of itself is a big surprise.
And as you mentioned, you come on the air, just as the numbers start to come in, in Arizona, and what we are waiting on here, let`s see here. Start with the governor`s race. We`ve got one tiny county reporting just a scattering of votes. Oh, we just got votes. Here it is. This is huge. OK. What just happened? This is how it works in Arizona, Maricopa County where Phoenix is, the Phoenix suburbs, by far the biggest county in the state. About 55% to 60% of all the votes in the Republican primary in Arizona are going to come out of this one county, Maricopa County. And Maricopa does this. Within minutes of poll closing, they release, you saw it here. Look at what they just released hundreds of 1000s of votes here and you could see what they just released. Karrin Taylor Robson leads Kari Lake 50% to 40% with this giant batch of votes that just came in from Maricopa County.
Now, what are these votes? Here`s how it works in Maricopa County. There`s extensive mail voting early voting in Arizona. Every ballot that was received by yesterday is what Maricopa said it would release within minutes of poll closing. So I believe we`re getting all the votes that were cast through yesterday.
Now what`s going to happen through the next few hours in Maricopa County is we`re going to get people who showed up in-person to vote today. Those votes are going to get added in as well. And then it`s probably not going to be for a couple of days. The votes that were delivered. That arrived today -- that were delivered, excuse me, and arrived today at polling places will come last. But what this adds up to? We can just show you statewide here, again, because Maricopa County is such a big part of this equation right here.
[23:05:03]
Karrin Taylor Robson right now, again, every county is kind of doing what Maricopa does, all those votes that had come in by yesterday or so are all being released in one batch here. And you`re seeing Kari Lake trail, and you just take a look here.
RUHLE: Steve, can I jump in?
KORNACKI: Yeah.
RUHLE: Can you tell us about Taylor Robson, though? Kari Lake is the name, a lot more people know hardcore election denier. We`ve even heard in the last few days, if she doesn`t like the results she won`t be accepting them. But Taylor Robson, what should we know about her?
KORNACKI: Yeah, Karen Taylor Robeson, she`s running with the endorsement of Doug Ducey, the outgoing governor. She has been a political consultant. She`s also running with the endorsement I think very notably of Mike Pence. Mike Pence, the former vice president has come in and has done rallies for her. So -- and there`s been a bit of a campaign here from some Republicans nationally, some Republican voices, I should say, nationally, who were trying to say, hey, that maybe Lake was a step too far. Maybe Taylor Robson would be more electable here.
Again, the thing I want to caution with this here is this. Taylor Robson, this is a good development for her to be in the lead right now. If Lake jumped out into the lead in Maricopa County and Lake jumped out into a lead statewide, I think it`d be hard to see her losing. So Taylor Robson is getting what she wants right now in terms of these results.
But I want you to think back to the 2020 election in Arizona if you can, because remember how that one played out, it was days long to get all the results in. And the upshot of it was, Biden jumped out to his biggest lead right away on election night in Arizona back in 2020. And the votes that were counted up as the week went on, were much more Trump friendly. And so if that pattern holds here, there`s still going to be -- this process is probably going to take a couple of days or at least a day in Arizona to play out.
The more -- the more Trump friendly votes or the later votes that would also translate potentially into the later votes being the Kari Lake votes. So there could be room here for Lake to grow. There could be room for Taylor Robson to fall here a little bit. But this certainly initially when you see Maricopa County come in as 10 points for Taylor Robson and over Lake. You know, Lake wanted to be winning in this batch of votes. Because if she was winning in this batch of votes, it`d be game over. Instead, Taylor Robson gets a 10 point path here, from this big giant batch that Maricopa reports out early. And again, we`re seeing that. You just taken a look at some of these other counties here. This is Coconino County, this is where Flagstaff is, you know, a lot of these are geographically big, but they`re not that big in terms of population. But just giving you a quick look here at the other counties that are reporting have some of those results right now here, and what it adds up to is a result statewide that looks like that Maricopa results so far. This is about half the vote in Arizona. Taylor Robson with the advantage over Lake.
Let`s see, by the way, those other statewide races. We`ve been talking about with same early votes counted up. OK, here in the Senate race. Blake Masters jumps at -- this as the Trump endorsed candidate in the Senate race. He jumps out to an early lead here. It`s five points over Jim Lamon who`s really run as, tried to run as just a Trumpy candidate as Masters. He just didn`t get the Trump endorsement in this race. Brnovich, the attorney general who earned Trump`s iron through during the 2020 election running in third place right here.
We could also just take a quick look, the Secretary of State`s race. This one`s attracted a lot of attention. Finchem, the Trump endorsed candidate here leading early in this race. So again, the question had been Finchem it is, Finchem, Masters and Kari Lake, do they all win their primaries here? The noticeable, a notable, I believe, the difference here, Kari Lake running, you know, about nine points behind Taylor Robson, as this big early batch of votes gets counted up. Kari Lake running behind, whereas Masters is running ahead close, but is running ahead with that same group of votes. There`s a bit of disconnect between the two of them there. That`s interesting, but this is the way it goes in Arizona, we get just this massive, massive batch of votes from all these counties just after 11 o`clock Eastern. And it`s going to slow down, once you get that initial batch from all these counties. A big one still to come, by the way. You can see Pima County, second biggest in the state where Tucson is. Let`s look to see that light up because I think that`ll add a little bit more clarity here. But once you get these initial batches in Arizona from all these counties, we`ll get some more as the night progresses. That`ll be votes that were cast in person today.
And then I think it`s really tomorrow. There`s a pause there, and you`re going to get more ballots released tomorrow and maybe in the coming days after that. So depending on how close this is, again, it`s a process that may not wrap up tonight. But I think just looking at the early -- the initial votes that we get right here that`s very good news for Karrin Taylor Robson and that`s a concerning early number for Kari Lake. Because again, Kari Lake, just given the lead she`d had in the polls, if you looked at Maricopa County, where 60% of the vote in this Republican primary is going to come from, if that initial batch had Lake ahead, say, yey, she`s not going to look back. Now she`s got to make up some ground. So this is an interesting twist that was just thrown at us here by this big initial batch of votes out of Maricopa County.
[23:10:28]
RUHLE: And reminder as long as we are thinking back to Arizona election night 2020, even though there were a lot of developments things change over time. Despite what seemed like countless audits and cyber ninja efforts, Biden still won.
Steve do not go far away, keep crunching those numbers and I want to bring in our leadoff panel, former Missouri Senator and MSNBC Political Analyst Claire McCaskill, Phil Rucker, Pulitzer Prize Winning Deputy National Editor for The Washington Post. Tim Miller, a contributor to the Bulwark and former Communications Director for Jeb Bush. He wrote the new book, "Why We Did It," and Jeremy Bash, former Chief of Staff at the CIA and the Pentagon. He joins us at 30 Rock, and he`s even wearing Kornacki khakis, thrilled about that.
Claire, I have a feeling you are wearing your Ruby slippers when it comes to talking Kansas tonight. What is your reaction?
CLAIRE MCCASKILL, (D) MISSOURI FORMER U.S. SENATOR: Girl, I wish I had some Ruby Slippers right now. You know, I was raised -- I was raised in Missouri and taught that Kansas was not a great place. But I don`t feel that way tonight. Something extraordinary happened, Stephanie. This is -- this was not expected to be this kind of result. They had a record turnout. What this shows in a state where Republican registrations outnumber Democrats, two to one that women are really upset that a fundamental right and freedom has been taken from them. And I think it is going to be a very motivating issue. And I think this should be a big flashing signal to every Democratic candidate out there, especially in states where they`ve done these very extreme things like no exception for rape or incest. And even in states where they just banned them after, you know, any time after six weeks. This really needs to be a motivating issue in these midterms. I think it could really make a difference.
RUHLE: So pre-Roe v. Wade, when we looked at the midterms, it seemed like it could be devastating for Democrats. The number one issue for American voters was the economy. It was inflation, inflation, inflation. After looking at tonight, is that going to change? Is this a moment as Claire points it out, for Democrats to push on what matters to Americans and that`s reproductive rights.
PHILIP RUCKER, THE WASHINGTON POST WHITE HOUSE BUREAU CHIEF: Steph, it certainly could be a clarifying moment for voters around the country because it`s the first electoral test we`ve had of abortion since the Supreme Court stops decision. And you know, Senator McCaskill pointed out that so many women were angry and came out and voted, but I bet a lot of men came out and voted to in Kansas. And you might see that in states in November, when you look at places where Democrats are running hard on this issue. Michigan, for example, where Governor Gretchen Whitmer was seen to have had been endangered in her bid for reelection may end up running strong. She has really embraced this abortion issue as a galvanizing force for voters there. And you`re seeing that in a lot of these key battleground states around the country heading into the fall.
RUHLE: Tim, I know it`s still early, but what did tonight`s results tell you about Trump`s political influence? Because it`s kind of different things in different states.
TIM MILLER, THE BULWARK CONTRIBUTOR: Yeah, look, I think that there are some things to be encouraged about, you know, right now in Michigan, we have Peter Meijer, who was one of the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. He`s running neck and neck in his race. He`s up just a hair right now. So we`ll see how that turns out. But that is encouraging.
I think is -- another thing that we`re seeing in a lot of these states is, you know, I`ve certainly shows that you have the ultra MAGAs and then kind of the MAGA lights. And you know, the MAGA lights aren`t exactly profiling courage. You got this Karrin Taylor Robson, who we`re talking about in Arizona, you know, she wouldn`t say -- she says that she still thinks there`s some funny business in the election and kind of won`t speak full truth about what happened. Eric Schmitt, who Senator McCaskill, I`m sure knows more about, was spearheaded the lawsuits to overturn the 2020 election.
So, you know, none of these folks are exactly doing anything near in the ballpark of what Meijer or Liz Cheney is doing. But it`s interesting that they are beating in the case of Schmitt and right now edging out in the case of Robson, the extremely -- you know what, insane Republicans who are running to challenge them in Eric Greitens in Missouri and Kari Lake in Arizona. And Kari Lake, as one example has been probably pretending or, you know, or she had a psychotic break at some point in her 50s but she has been a lunatic. You know, running Vaughn Hillyard has been on this on Arizona, just running on how we need to arrest people over the last election. She`s calling Joe Biden illegitimate. You know, she`s been really gilding the lily and all of these conspiracies.
[23:15:08]
And it would be interesting if Arizona Republicans looked at her and said, that`s a step too far for us, because we haven`t seen a lot of those encouraging signs. So this is not to say that Robson or Schmitt deserve any praise for what they`ve done. But it`s noteworthy that the most extreme candidates are not having a great night on the Republican side tonight.
RUHLE: And well, Donald Trump endorsed Eric, we don`t know who, it was Don Jr. and Kimberly who endorsed Greitens nowhere, and that Vicky Hartzler was endorsed by Josh Hawley, and she is absolutely nowhere.
Jeremy, besides what we`re seeing in the polls tonight, we cannot ignore the investigation into January 6. What do we get, another development today, lo and behold, more text messages deleted. This time Trump officials, including the Defense Secretary, at this point, can any sane person say, this was all standard operating procedure that people from Department of Homeland Security, Secret Service in the Pentagon just deleted messages on maybe one of the most important security breaches in our country?
JEREMY BASH, FORMER CIA CHIEF OF STAFF: Certainly not with respect to presidential appointees at the Department of Defense, and probably not with respect to anybody at DHS. I`m still willing to cut a little slack for the career Secret Service officials who take a bullet for any president of any party. But right now, I think this merits a lot more investigation.
But Stephanie, you know, the January 6 investigation, I think it`s just going to get emboldened by these deleted text messages. And it comes against the backdrop, of course, a pretty good week for Joe Biden, the guy should get COVID more often, I think. He killed the world`s number one tariffs. He got the chips manufacturing bill passed, you got the burn pit legislation, a big important bill for veterans health passed. He`s got this deal that you`re going to talk about later in the show with Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer on tax cuts, on health care, on climate. And he also navigate this crisis with Nancy Pelosi and China that I think we`re going to also talk about. This is a huge week for the President, a pretty big setback for the former president.
RUHLE: And remember, a lot of these achievements that you just laid out were done on a bipartisan basis. People have been laughing at Joe Biden for the last year when he calls himself bipartisan, Joe. Look a little bit closer. You want to talk Chip Act? You want to talk to infrastructure, you want to talk gun safety, that was done on the bipartisan, and the burn pits, bipartisan.
Claire, there is also reporting that Donald Trump Jr. was interviewed by the New York Attorney General last week, I want you to put on your attorney hat. Just how much legal jeopardy is the family in with regard to that civil case? This is the case with basically the whole family was supposed to be deposed a few weeks ago, that was delayed because of the passing of Ivana Trump and boom, Don Jr., he was asked some questions.
MCCASKILL: Yeah, you know, I don`t really understand why all -- I know they`ve delayed the Trump family. And they`ve tried to delay giving any information or talking to in the discovery process giving depositions. But this needs to move along, folks, both DOJ and the state of New York. They`ve either got the evidence at this point, especially documentary evidence in this civil case, in this matter of their line about their net worth and they`re playing games with charities and taxes and all of that. It`s time to put the pedal to the metal and reach some conclusions on this stuff because Trump is still huge in this election. Let`s not make any mistake, let`s not delude ourselves to January 6 Committee hearings have changed the way a lot of Americans feel about this guy. I`m in a state where I watched these grown men grovel for scraps trying to get any voice of approval from Donald Trump in a U.S. Senate race.
RUHLE: You wonder why Claire spends a lot of time in New York.
Senator Claire McCaskill, Phil Rucker and Tim Miller, thank you all. Jeremy, we`re going to check back in with you in a little bit. I do want to talk about Speaker Pelosi`s trip to Taiwan.
It took a few more days than expected but the Senate has finally passed, Jeremy, mentioned it the so-called PACT Act with the help of some people like Jon Stewart. That is the measure that provides millions of veterans who are exposed to toxic substances from the burn pits with expanded access to health care and benefits. This time with plenty of help from Jon Stewart and veterans groups. The measure passed 86 to 11. The measure now goes to President Biden`s desk for his signature. And I`m quite sure he will sign it.
When we come back, we`re going to have more on primary night election coverage just ahead. We`re going to big night, stick around.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[23:23:49]
RUHLE: For the first time since the Supreme Court overturned Roe vs. Wade, the Department of Justice is looking to protect the right to choose. Today, it sued the state of Idaho over its restrictive abortion law. And in Kansas the issue was right there on the ballot. And voters turned out in a big, big way to reject a state constitutional amendment that could have restricted abortion access.
MSNBC Anchor and Senior National Correspondent and my dear friend Chris Jansing joins us from nearby Kansas City, Missouri. Chris, you have been there all day covering these primaries. I just read the Kansas Secretary of State just said a few moments ago talking turnout. It is looking a lot like the 2008 turnout for the Obama Presidential race, incredibly high. I mean, Obama Presidential race compared to today, all this second in Kansas for a primary?
CHRIS JANSING, MSNBC SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: These numbers are wild Stephanie. Absolutely nobody predicted this. Earlier today when we started to see long lines, there was a number being bandied about maybe 36% turnout that Secretary of State just said it`s looking like it`s going to push 50% as you said First term Obama numbers. What happened here? Well, a lot of people thought that -- and particularly people who are on the abortion rights side, that actually the other side tried to bury this in the heat of August when people don`t turn out and they thought they could push this through. Obviously, they turned out to be wrong.
[23:25:19]
A couple of key factors, I think that are going to be seen over the next couple of days. One, unaffiliated voters, we`ve already seen a trend. This is a very red state, but we`ve seen a trend away from the Republican Party, their numbers down a little bit unaffiliated voters up, but unaffiliated voters almost never, ever turn out for a primary because they can`t vote for candidates if you`re not registered as a Democrat or Republican. But this got so much attention. And that`s the other part of this puzzle, Stephanie. $12 million dollars poured into this race on television ads, $12 million in his state, where there are fewer than 2 million registered voters. And so you couldn`t turn on your television without seeing these ads. And it all got to be just very confusing for people because of the way it was worded. That meant more money was being spent. People were developing campaigns to explain to people exactly how this was working. And so in the end, I think what we saw was a huge victory for folks who said, we`re not going to give up our abortion rights in this state and I just got a statement from the Susan B. Anthony list. They are major players on the anti-abortion side. And they call this a huge disappointment, Steph.
RUHLE: Chris Jansing, thank you so much. Live from Kansas City, I appreciate it.
Coming up, we`re going to head back to the big board with you know who, Steve Kornacki, and then the senator in the thick of what could be one of Joe Biden`s biggest wins. I go one on one with Joe Manchin, when THE 11TH HOUR continues.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[23:31:37]
RUHLE: We are watching some very interesting returns coming in from Arizona at this hour. Let`s head back to Steve Kornacki at the big board. What do you know, Steve?
KORNACKI: Yeah, Stephanie. I mean, again, this is the way it works in Arizona. There is sort of explosion of results in that first 2030 minutes or so after 11 p.m. Eastern time. And you can see about 60% now of all the vote in this Republican gubernatorial primary has been counted up and released. And you can see Karrin Taylor Robson with the lead over Kari Lake here, it`s about eight and a half points. Just in the last couple of minutes, we got a big piece of real estate here. A big chunk of Pima County. This is where Tucson is, second biggest county in the state.
And again, Taylor Robson, with an advantage there of double digits, a few more, these are big geographically, but they`re not going to be huge in terms of population and votes. There`s going to be some more votes from these counties that are reported out tonight. What`s going to happen is over the next couple of hours, they`re going to -- they`re going to report out votes that were cast in-person today. But it`s also going to turn, spill over into tomorrow. The ballots that were dropped off by people today have to be processed that to be validated, signature verified and won`t be counted released until tomorrow. Maybe later. We can take days in Arizona. But I think the bottom line and trying to understand this race is that Taylor Robson was expected to do better with this initial batch of votes than the votes that will be later reported out. So she needed in this initial batch to get a pad over Kari Lake. She`s done that. Now, we`re going to find out, is that pad big enough to withstand the remaining votes that are to be counted.
The other mark, key race there in Arizona, you can see the Republican Senate race. This is, you know, for the right to run against Mark Kelly, the Democratic senator, again, same big batch of early votes. You could see here, the Trump backed candidate Blake Masters, it`s a slightly but does have a lead with that early vote. And again, if those Trump favorite candidates are doing better with the vote that`s yet to be counted, that`s a notable difference. You know, Kari Lake is down nine points in that initial batch of votes. She`s backed by Trump down nine points. Masters is backed by Trump. He`s up four points with that initial batch of votes. So he might be sitting in a much better position right now than Kari Lake is.
Also, there`s that Secretary of State Primary, there on the Republican side. Again, the Trump back candidate with that initial batch of votes already ahead by eight points there. So I think the bottom line is, two have those three Trump back candidates are probably encouraged by this early batch of votes. Kari Lake got some work to do. This one, some folks were saying the polls had her well ahead. They did. There was one late poll that showed this might be tightening. And this does look like a tight race for Robson, has a real chance potentially, to end up winning this.
RUHLE: Right now, my dad is watching, saying votes for Lake may be drying up. Got you. Steve Kornacki, thank you.
There is another vote count, we`re keeping a very close eye on tonight. It is the number of votes Senate Democrats need on that huge tax reform and climate agreement that was pulled together by Chuck Schumer and Joe Manchin. Well, I had a chance to speak with Senator Manchin shortly after he had a very critical conversation this afternoon. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RUHLE: I know how busy you have been on this reconciliation plan. But you need one more democratic vote, Senator Kyrsten Sinema, I know you`re scheduled to speak with her today, is she onboard?
[23:35:05]
SEN. JOE MANCHIN, (D) WEST VIRGINIA: Well, we did have a nice conversation and we`re changing papers back and forth to make sure we understand everything, she understands where we`re coming from. And she`s always -- she`s a friend and she`s always done her due diligence. And she`ll look at all of this and will make her own decision. So I`m hopefully, you know, there`s a lot of good things in there. And she`s worked very hard over the past on a lot of the issues that we`re talking about. So we`ll just have to see how it goes, but we`re talking.
RUHLE: Well, when you spoke to her, is there anything standing in the way carried interest, for example. Is that something she is willing to work with you on? This is something that we have heard from Democrats and Republicans for years that they want to close this loophole, but yet it`s still hanging out there?
MANCHIN: And, you know, even the people that receive it, it`s thought, it`s just run its course, you know, this has been a good run. And the only thing I`ve talked about with carried interest and you know, better than anybody, Stephanie, is that, you know, it`s based on capital gain rates. Well, if you don`t have any capital at all in the game, how are you getting the same reduced rates, since you have nothing at risk, except your services that you`re performing for a fee? Doesn`t make any sense at all. How that`s -- it`s a sensing is a fair system. So with that, over the years, they`ve said, enough is enough. And even the people that have received this, as I think this day has come has been a good run. So we`re hopefully that -- this will stay there. And it just puts the fairness to the system. And if someone can explain it better, to me of why it has to be there, and who`s going to be harmed if it`s not there, I`m happy to hear him. But I haven`t heard that yet. Maybe you have, maybe you can explain it to me.
RUHLE: That`s actually my question, sir. Because for the last five years, I have asked for any lawmaker, any private equity, industry experts come on the show and explain to me why that`s an important provision. No one has ever said yes. So can I ask you behind closed doors, what do lawmakers tell you why they need to have it in our tax code?
MANCHIN: I can`t -- I`m not getting -- I`m having a hard time getting those answers also. And I just can`t get a direct answer. I said, please tell me, I wouldn`t harm anything, and I`m not punishing anybody. But if it`s just 1/10 of -- 1/10 of the richest, wealthiest people in the world, only for taking this, then I think that is trying to put the fairness towards, you know, we need to have a strong country, we have to have a strong tax program that pays for all the services. And, and I`m just thinking, you know, in 15% minimum is the same thing. It went from 35 to 21 on net corporate taxes, Stephanie, and I thought that was a tremendous windfall, and I thought it was stopped at 25. But people were very happy and ecstatic. And then I guess it wasn`t enough. But on the carried interest, it makes no sense to me whatsoever. But I`m willing to give those explanations, and I`m sure I will, and I`m going to exchange people back and forth and see where it goes.
RUHLE: What is exchanged papers back and forth mean? Either Kyrsten Sinema will go through this with you, or she won`t?
MANCHIN: With that I don`t know. I mean, the bottom line is she`s there some legitimate, you know, we haven`t had a chance to really get into it. And we`ve been trying to because all the text is out right now. Except for the accelerated permitting, that we believe it`s absolutely the linchpin, the whole piece of legislation.
RUHLE: You did block Build Back Better twice at of fears it was only going to worsen inflation, much to the ire of other Democrats. And now here you are with the reconciliation plan, and Republicans are furious with you, they want to go after your seat, come the next election. Are you prepared for that?
MANCHIN: They`ve always gone after my seat, that`s never prevented them before. And you know what? It`s still my -- those are my friends. I understand, I understand this process. And then I don`t begrudge people. I understand it`s like, Senator McConnell says, Joseph shirts and skins game? Well, I don`t really -- I don`t approach it that way. I approach it basically, as a, all Unity game. We`re all in it for our country. And I`m not worried if I said the best politics is good government. If the Republicans have a good idea, I vote for it. I don`t question. It makes sense to me. I can go home and explain it. And if the Democrats have a bad idea, I don`t mind at all voting against it. Because I can`t explain. But if it`s a good idea, I don`t care whether it`s Democrat or Republican, let`s support it. That is good for our country. This is a red, white and blue bill. They keep saying, well a Democrat that`s going to help the Democrats for the 2022 election or 2024 and this and that. That`s not my purpose at all. I don`t think that all that`s in the equation.
RUHLE: Well --
MANCHIN: and then on the other hand, Stephanie, now I know where you`re going with this. But on the other hand, they`re going to say, well, this is a green deal, green deal. This is not a green deal. We`re having a pathway with aggressive energy from fossil and going it cleaner, using all the new technologies, replacing the dirty fuels around the world, that`s de- carbonization. So this is a red, white and blue. It`s a good piece of legislation.
[23:40:14]
RUHLE: Well, then what are Republicans saying to behind closed doors? Because publicly quite a few have said, you double crossed them. Mitch McConnell is somebody that you speak to on a regular basis, have you spoken to him since you presented this bill?
MANCHIN: I haven`t just since passing, we says hello. And I shook his hand, I`m happy to sit down and speak to him. They all knew. I said, guys, you know, I`m not for any type of big legislation, never have been. This is the time we can do that. But I can tell you one thing, if I can get a negotiation on an energy package that gives us the energy that we need for today, and if I can get it permitting, accelerating permitting, which is what you`ve always wanted, and I`ve always thought was needed, and we can pay down debt, and I want to walk away from something like that, then I`m here for the wrong reason. You don`t need me. If you just want someone that says, well, the Democrats are for this, the Democrats are against it, or the Republicans are for it or the Republicans are against it. That`s not who I am, Stephanie. And I think they all know that.
They might be disappointing because they`re afraid that this could be a good piece of legislation. They ought to embrace it, the same way they embraced the bipartisan infrastructure deal, the same way they embraced the mental illness for the gun deal, the things that we`ve been able to do in a bipartisan way. Those are all good politics, because it`s good government. This is good politics is good government. Take credit for it. A lot of the stuff and there`s things that they`ve always touted.
RUHLE: Then, are you trying to convince any Republicans to vote yes for this? Kyrsten Sinema is the obvious vote, but maybe there`s somebody else out there, you can convince?
MANCHIN: Sure. I`m sure, I would love for that.
RUHLE: Who?
MANCHIN: No, no, I`m saying, I talked to all. They`re all my friends. They really are. But I knew from day one, they wouldn`t change --
RUHLE: Hold on, it doesn`t matter who`s your friend? Like, let`s be honest, it doesn`t matter who`s your friend, you need to get the votes, besides Kyrsten Sinema.
MANCHIN: I know.
RUHLE: Mitch McConnell is your friend, are you confident, Mitch McConnell?
MANCHIN: I cannot get their vote because they won`t change a penny of the tax code. If they believe that 15% should not be the minimum, and corporations shouldn`t pay anything in America, for the largest have a billion dollars of revenue a year and won`t pay anything, I can convince them to change that. But I know that, I don`t agree. I respect their decision. I don`t agree with their decision. I think it`s wrong. But I`m not going to chastise him over that. So I know I could not do that. I can`t get him there. Because basically, there`s a fairness to this system. We didn`t raise taxes. We didn`t do anything. We just closed loopholes, carried interest, they`ve even said this. We`ve talked about it before. But all of a sudden it comes down to, I`m not changing opinion in the taxes. So if that`s their position, I accept that. This is what I have to work with. And this is the best piece of legislation. And it seems to be the most balanced piece that we could possibly get, Stephanie.
RUHLE: All right, Senator, thank you for your time. Before you go, what do you think the likelihood is, this thing is going to pass, if you had to play odds 50%, 75%, 90%?
MANCHIN: I think that we`re in a good trajectory to get this done. I really do. I just think we all have to come together and look at it. So from -- when Kyrsten, my friend, Kyrsten is able to see everything, she`ll make a decision. If she has some concerns, she`ll reach out and tell me and we`ll just continue to talk. We always do that. But the bottom line is that people -- a lot of people were miffed because it happened, they didn`t know about it. I will say this, Stephanie, I didn`t want to disappoint people again, they get up and down and the emotions, the drama, and everybody gets upset and they were mad. Do you think I would go through this again, because I liked the first eight months ago, I went through? I went -- basically, I never gave up. I thought there`s a pathway forward, and watching what Putin has done to Ukraine, and watching how he`s weaponized energy. And for us to sit here and watch now what he`s doing to Europe by twisting the Dow closed all the time on the energy they need. And we`re setting bound we can be healthy, and really get up and running as quick as we possibly can to help them. And that`s just so wrong. So that`s really what motivated me to continue to continue to find a pathway forward.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RUHLE: West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, thank you for taking your time to join us.
Coming up, China`s saber rattling gets louder as Speaker Pelosi meets with Taiwan`s president. Look at all that`s at stake when THE 11TH HOUR continues.
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[23:49:22]
RUHLE: Let`s get another update from Steve Kornacki at the big board. Steve, I know you`ve been following a couple races specifically incumbent Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. How are they doing?
KORNACKI: Yes, three Republicans who voted to impeach Trump on the ballot in primaries today. Here`s the one we`ve been following the most closely tonight, Western Michigan, Grand Rapids based, Third District, Peter Meijer freshman Republican. One of his first votes was to impeach Trump. He has now fallen behind. He had pulled ahead the last time we checked it. He`s now fallen behind by over 900 votes to John Gibbs. He`s Trump backed challenger. Still a very close race, three quarters of the vote in. Here`s the problem for Meijer though, if we really zoom in this district. There are three counties, parts of three counties that make up this district.
[23:50:07]
The biggest is Meijer`s base, that`s Kent County where Grand Rapids is. You see that`s the red shade there, we`re using for Meijer. Meijer is doing well in that county, in that part of the district. That`s what`s keeping him afloat. The problem is this, thought, if you break down the vote right now, when you look at the absentee vote, the vote by mail portion in this by far the largest part of that part of the district, Kent County, Meijer is winning the mail vote by 21 points. He is losing the same day vote by 11. So as that same day vote has come in, it`s given Gibbs, it move Gibbs back into the lead, although, I just see a few more votes came in and they were Meijer friendly. So the margin now is down to 572 votes there.
So very close here. The problem for Meijer, though, same day, he`s running much worse than absentee in any same day votes candidate right now look like they`re going to hurt him. We`ll see what happens that found 25%. And we just want to check in on those other two Republicans. It`s out in Washington State. Remember Washington State does what they call a top two primary. So all the candidates Democrat and Republican are on the same ballot, top two regardless of party, advance to the general election.
Key here is this is Jaime Herrera Beutler. She`s one of the Republicans who voted for impeachment. This is a Democrat here running in first place. This is Joe Kent, the Trump back Republican in this race. This is probably all the vote we`re going to get tonight in Washington. It takes them days to count, but Jaime Herrera Beutler in the initial count, the key for her is to finish in the top two. She is in the top two right now. She is running ahead by about 5000 votes of her Trump backed challenger. So those are encouraging numbers for Jaime Herrera Beutler in the Third District of Washington. And in the fourth district, here`s Dan Newhouse, another Republican who voted to impeach Trump. And again, same thing, you`re probably all the votes we`re going to get tonight. He`s running in first, the Democratic candidates running and second.
This is Loren Culp, the Trump backed candidate running in third, running significantly behind Newhouse. Newhouse has to be very happy with this initial report two out of Washington. So Meijer in trouble there in Michigan three. These two Republicans in Washington State initially encouraging numbers for them, Stephanie.
RUHLE: All right, Steve Kornacki, thank you.
Just before 11 Eastern this morning, the Speaker of the House stepped onto the tarmac in Taiwan. And just a short while ago, she met with both Taiwan`s parliament, and its president. All part of the visit that has inflamed tensions with the Chinese, who reportedly flew fighter jets over the Taiwan Strait just before her arrival. So why is she there? In an op-ed for The Washington Post, Pelosi accused China of "accelerating aggression against Taiwan," writing this, "Our congressional delegation`s visit should be seen as an unequivocal statement that America stands with Taiwan, our democratic partner as it defends itself, and its freedom."
Back with us, Jeremy Bash, former Chief of Staff at the CIA and the Pentagon, educate us. Why is this so significant?
BASH: Important context, because the last year or two, China has been acting more aggressively towards Taiwan, flying airplanes, sending naval ships, trying to threaten that island and basically say, don`t assert your independence. So for the co-equal branch of government of the United States, under Article I, the leader of our legislative branch, the Speaker of the House, number three in line for the presidency to go there and sit with the leadership of Taiwan sent a very unmistakable important symbol that the United States is resolutely backing Taiwan.
RUHLE: How about this important symbol, earlier today, Mitch McConnell of all people said he supports this trip.
BASH: I think it was a bipartisan show of support for Taiwan. And the one issue that garners bipartisan support in Washington is confronting China because China is trying to challenge the United States assert itself. It has a very aggressive military and diplomatic strategy around the world in the United States on a bipartisan basis. And the Biden administration is doing this as well is standing up to China. And I`m glad this speaker stuck to her guns. She`s smart for going there. She`s smart for not backing down despite the criticism and good for President Biden for not asking her to stand down.
RUHLE: McConnell also issued kind of a double-edged praise after the killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri, I`m sure I`m saying his name wrong. I would love it if someone would help me, but we`re just going to go with it. He said, the action was necessary because of the President`s withdrawal from Afghanistan, is that fair?
BASH: Well, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the number two --
RUHLE: There you go.
BASH: -- the longtime number two in al-Qaeda, who is of course, leaving the organization since May 1, 2011, when bin Laden was taken out, was the world`s most notorious terrorist. So necessary -- it was necessary --
RUHLE: So either way.
BASH: Either way. I think there is a question as to whether or not al-Qaeda will reassert itself in Afghanistan with the Taliban in charge, they invited Zawahiri in, but the Biden administration showed effectively that it does have an over the horizon counterterrorism strike capability, they develop the intelligence and struck with precision and they made the American the world safer.
RUHLE: As you said, big week for the Biden administration, good thing for America.
[23:55:03]
BASH: Thanks.
RUHLE: Jeremy Bash, thank you.
Very, very busy night. And on that important note, I wish you all a very, very good night. My dear friend, not old friend and colleague Ali Velshi picks up our primary night coverage right after a quick break
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