Show: THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW Date: November 6, 2016 Guest:
BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC NEWS HOST: Look at that. You are looking live at democracy plaza. What we affectionately call home, ice advantage. Our election headquarters here at Rockefeller Plaza in New York. And up the road in New England, you are looking live at an event in Manchester, New Hampshire. Hillary Clinton has taken the stage for a late Sunday night rally there on this night before election eve.
Tonight there is big news. We have been covering breaking news all evening. Today`s letter of FBI director Comey to Congress. Mr. Comey could not have changed the tenor of this presidential race more than he already has. And so, his decision on this football Sunday to say in effect, nothing to see here. The ruling on the field stands, where it relates to those Clinton emails has both campaigns now reacting fast and wondering what might have been.
Good evening, all. Brian Williams, Rachel Maddow, Chris Matthews. Our full election team.
Rachel, what a six-hour period for a Sunday night it has been.
RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC HOST: It is - I mean, it has been a remarkable close to this campaign in general. This campaign was going to be one for the record books regardless. We have got somebody running for the first time ever who has zero record of public service, who would be the oldest president ever inaugural rated if he wins. We would have the first woman president of she wins. They already made history by their just being nominated.
But to get to the end and have it be this (INAUDIBLE), it is the best analogy I can come up with for what the FBI did is if you were a pilot or a firefighter as you are, or something else, which you needed a physical, go to the doctor and get your physical. The doctor then calls your would-be employer and says, you know, we drew blood for this physical. When you draw blood, you can diagnose all sorts of stuff, incurable diseases, sexually transmitted diseases, hemarogic (ph) fever. All sorts of stuff that can kill you. So potential employer, I just want you to know, we drew blood.
And then nine days later, your doctor then calls your would be employer back and says, by the way, we did actually look at the blood results now and it turns out it`s fine, in case you are thinking about still hiring that person.
What the FBI director did here was such an intervention into this race. A lot of o people early voted between the times that he has made that intervention and now today when he said never mind. We will never be able to measure the true cause of what he did. But the FBI will never be viewed the same.
WILLIAMS: Chris Matthews, I have been watching your coverage what seems like all afternoon and evening long. You have been on the frontline of this story. What do you make of it?
CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC HOST: Well, I think that is all true. And I just - I finally absorb what Rachel understands here, which is that there was a real time impact over this nine days. It wasn`t that all that doesn`t matter. Forget about it. It does matter because it has mattered to all the early voting in this country.
MADDOW: Nine days.
MATTHEWS: But I do in terms of the results, I have found an interesting parallel with baseball. The final game in the World Series where you had that amazing three-run homer by Davis, which was sort of this intervention. But it didn`t stop the ultimate result. In fact, it didn`t. And so, I think the campaign will go back on.
What I`m surprised by, Hillary Clinton and her people are smart. They know more than we know about what they wanted to. They decided not to really jump on this. They decided not to make this a chance to spike the ball or whatever to say we are right. They are wrong. I think they do want to end this campaign on some other topic than the emails.
WILLIAMS: They don`t want a sound bite containing the phrase emails.
MATTHEWS: And even if it includes the Comey finally came true, they wanted to be on something because she did say when they go low, we will go high. I think she needs that. She is probably going to win in her head. And therefore, she has already building toward a government that she has got to lead.
And I think today when she started to say I know some people don`t trust me. She is trying to build that connection which she is capable of humility. And I think maybe by not jumping on this with all her two feet. She may have a chance to say you know what, OK, I won this one. I`m not perfect, but let`s talk about the future together.
MADDOW: It`s interesting to think of like just thought experiment, what could she say about this? If she was going to jump on it, how could she because you`re right. As long as everybody is talking by Hillary Clinton`s emails. I mean, honestly, nine days ago when Comey came out with that letter, he didn`t actually allege wrong doing. He didn`t actually say she has done anything wrong. So, her saying I`m cleared still means we are talking about this story which was nothing from the very beginning. Nothing.
WILLIAMS: As a political matter, the Trump campaign celebrated the FBI director for exactly nine days. Today, they pivoted instantly to see, we told you, the system is rigged. And as a matter of law, our justice correspondent, Pete Williams, covers the FBI director as part of his broad meat of topics in Washington.
Pete, walk us through what this means. And I saw a statement by you today saying in effect, this is lights out for this investigation.
PETE WILLIAMS, NBC NEWS JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Right, this is not the halftime report to pick up on your football analogy. This is we have looked at the emails in terms of Hillary Clinton`s, the question of whether they were classified materials on her server which was what this investigation was all about. What they say is that they have gone through and found that many of them as we suspected they would be were duplicates with a data set the FBI already had after months of gathering the documents that were found on her server. So many of them were duplicates, some were simply social message, what time do you want to go to the airport. And then the remainder, they looked at and determined that there were no additional, or if there were, just one and two, perhaps partial bits of classified information. And that`s why Comey says this doesn`t change the bottom line for us. They had concluded that no prosecutor would bring this case.
WILLIAMS: All right. Pete Williams with the explanation of today`s legal matter.
MADDOW: We are now going to go north live to Manchester, New Hampshire, where our own Andrea Mitchell is at the Clinton event there. It is interesting to note that in her closing argument, Hillary Clinton is appearing tonight with Khizr Khan, the father of captain Humayun Khan who was killed in Iraq.
Andrea, how`s it been tonight in New Hampshire? What`s happening there?
ANDREA MITCHELL, MSNBC HOST, ANDREA MITCHELL REPORTS: It`s been extraordinary. I have got to tell you, Rachel. First of all, she did not mention the email controversy as you noted in her earlier appearance in Cleveland with LeBron James, trying to rally the black vote.
Their decision is and their telling us this, anytime they are talking about emails and people are thinking about private servers, they are losing the game. They know that there has been damage. They had the momentum over the last nine days just stalled. And the real damage if she does end up winning, none the less, the real damage is to Republican candidates who now got a lifeline. So, the damage is to their Democratic opponents.
Kelly Ayotte may well win here in New Hampshire. She was not about to win nine days ago. The same thing goes for Roy Blunt in Missouri. There are real tangible results damaged politically to Democrats around this country from what happened in the last nine day as you already have.
And tonight, there was a concert here. We know the (INAUDIBLE). This is always our election headquarters on primary night here in Bryan (ph). This armory is filled. The overflow room is filled. They have opened up the doors to the bottom. There are lot of people here.
James Taylor played for 45 minutes. It was extraordinary. And I thought, well, that is so mellow in such a while, how does Khizr Khan follow that. He came and this crowd was on their feet screaming for Khizr Khan with his heartbreaking story about his son and a message against bullying. This just been sort of magical night staying on message and trying to recapture the momentum going into the final day.
MADDOW: Andrea Mitchell, thank you very much. Live report from Manchester, New Hampshire.
On that key point of the momentum. The momentum feels different this year than it does other years because so much of the vote is already cast. It puts a high premium on actually the candidates getting to places where there hasn`t necessary been a lot of early vote or on places where there isn`t early vote, trying to capture the exact moment where we are on the campaign without so much of that vote already banked.
And on that note, we go to now Peter Alexander, who is in Moon-Township, Pennsylvania which is where tonight`s Trump event is getting underway.
Peter, what`s the scene there in Moon-Township?
PETER ALEXANDER, NBC NEWS WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Rachel. Got Donald Trump. He is more than an hour behind right now. He has got two stops and two more states to go. He left Michigan the short time ago. Will come here to Pennsylvania before heading to Virginia. Ultimately, he will sleep in Florida tonight.
But despite that FBI email conclusion today, the folks here do not believe that Hillary Clinton has been vindicated. Chance of lock her up have been peppered throughout the course of last hour as we have anticipated. Donald Trump`s arrival in his last stop in Michigan, he said what has been the campaign`s message since this announcement. And in fact, he said that it`s not possible that the FBI could have gone through 650,000 emails in the last nine days. He says that Hillary Clinton is guilty and ultimately is urging the voters to provide the final verdict on Tuesday, November 8th.
What strikes as we go out here is the fact that these people now are in the past said they were still were coming around to Donald Trump are now personally proud of supporting Donald Trump. And that`s what a senior adviser told me a short time ago. He said the problem has never been the white working class voters, it`s been the suburban Republicans, those who were reluctant, the (INAUDIBLE) traditionally about their support of Donald Trump. But he says those people are the ones that as a result of this email investigation have come home. Much the same way that Mike Pence has described it.
Important to note that we are hearing from aides over the course of this day, they are projecting real confidence, specifically about the state of Michigan and the upper Midwest. It`s a state that no Republican has won since 1988. If that path doesn`t work, they are hoping he might pick up a state like Minnesota. No Republicans won there since 1972.
Donald Trump today as we are hearing CNN sucks chants behind me right now. Donald Trump was in Minnesota. He said he has been there many times. In fact, today was the first time he had a rally there all campaign. He is going to hear behind me. Back to you, Rachel and Brian.
MADDOW: Thank you. In Moon-Township, Pennsylvania. It is a weird act of, not exactly bravery. But it is something different than it usually is on political campaign to show up at a Donald Trump rally as a political reporter. The way that the speakers including Trump himself direct the crowd to turn on reporters in the room to denounce them and scream at them and flip them off. It`s a weird thing.
WILLIAMS: Our technical folks will tell you there has been a record number of requests for the two ear earpiece we always wear. I wear one in one ear, but in a loud environment, you wear two and you have to block out the world or nothing you say would make sense. It is down with the concentration. So as long as no one gets hurt, a boisterous room I think we would call that Moon-Township, PA.
Let`s bring in our expanded family. Nicole Wallace is here with us. Former communications director for the Bush 43 White House and a veteran with McCain-Palin campaign. And Eugene Robinson, Pulitzer-prize winner with "the Washington Post" whose column this week sets out his closing argument on why people should not vote for Donald Trump.
Nicole, what do you make of to this Sunday, in American politics?
NICOLE WALLACE, FORMER COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR FOR BUSH 43 WHITE HOUSE: Well, I think it is a little more sinister. Going back to your blood. And I hate blood, so I don`t know why I`m going back here.
MADDOW: Well, the blood draw.
WALLACE: I mean, we were on the air when the news broke. And there was certainly the sense that there was something wrong. So listen. It was more like the early indications are that the patient is sick. And that is the information that people voted on.
Here is the other immeasurable. There was a great story of "New York Times" today about impact that news had on Donald Trump as a candidate. It turned him into something that no would buy their no friend, no family member had been able to. It turned him into a half-way decent kid.
WILLIAMS: On message.
WALLACE: On message. Dana Bash described him today as a thunder bolt. She heard someone of his advisors that it was like a thunder bolt from God. It gave him the space that he could win. So not only is it immeasurable how it affected the people who already voted, will never be able to measure how would it effect his -- her opponent? It turned him into somebody different for 11 vital days.
MADDOW: My favorite detail in the "New York Times" story was that Steve Bannon, the CEO of the Trump campaign, he literally caught on fire. It`s the most overused metaphor in political life.
WALLACE: And it actually happened.
MADDOW: He was focused so much on frying to come up with a response, his pants lit on fire.
EUGENE ROBINSON, COLUMNIST, THE WASHINGTON POST: That`s the heat of political campaign. You know -
ROBINSON: I think the Clinton campaign`s reaction to today`s Comey letter and let`s hope there are no more Comey letters before Tuesday, was just realism. I mean, what they can do at this point, right? A whole bunch of people have early voted under the impression that Hillary Clinton was once again being investigated on the emails. And that, you know, all the smoke out there. And so now, they know there`s no fire. I mean, you know, did that affect the vote? Probably did. Did it affect the vote hugely? I wonder, you know, given how polarized people are. I think it probably did bring some Republicans home to party. I think it probably did and this is more important for down ballot races. It probably did bring out some Republicans who were just inclined, you know, to sit this one out.
MADDOW: You know, how did -- had it been 36 hour? How it been three days, nine days or something when the FBI did this. That`s fine. Nine days of early voting when more than 30 million Americans are early voting. He hit the sweet spot in terms of locking in something negative about one of the candidate. I mean, if Jim Comey hadn`t done this as a designed political missile, he couldn`t have hit it any more directly.
ROBINSON: Yes. I mean, you know, imagine though, and he come out with this (INAUDIBLE), something that letter, second letter, the day after the election, right, that would have been, people would understandably be going crazy. So, you know the bulk of the vote will still be out on Tuesday. And yes, I think the Clinton folks want to mitigate the damage if possible but there probably was damaged.
WILLIAMS: Yes. I heard the Clinton campaign fearing tonight, the Comey letter may have been a permission slip for moderate Republicans who couldn`t vote for Donald Trump or so they thought, wow, early in the evening. And went the other way, could not in the end support Hillary Clinton.
Our first break and our coverage will continue on the other side. James Carville, among those waiting to talk to us. We will be right back.
WILLIAMS: There they are skating on the rink that will prove by in two night from now, will show the national map. Where the red is, where the blue is. For now, it`s all the way up the side of our building.
We haven`t figure this way. If you are watching us on a Sunday night in prime time, you are a nervous Democrat or you are a nervous Republican or you can`t get behind Oakland or Denver. Be that as it may, we welcome them all.
And we figured, one of your opening question is hey, where does this race stand? We hear you talk so much about battleground states. We are happy you asked that question because Steve Kornacki is over there at the big board with a concentration on the battlegrounds.
I see some stripes over there, Steve.
STEVE KORNACKI, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Stripes because there`s two states where it`s gets by congressional district. We will get to that one later.
But the big picture, we know, we have known this for a while. Clinton is ahead in this final 48 hours. Trump is playing from behind. So the question if you are Donald Trump and you are trying to pull off a come from behind win, what do you need to happen?
Well, right now, what we see, Clinton in pretty good shape here in states equaling 268 electoral votes. The gray you see, these are the closest states. These have been the toss up states and obviously, if Clinton`s that close to 270, if you are Donald Trump, you have to run the table. Your first option here is run the table in every one of these gray states. Every one of these toss up state. If you get them all and you get those two congressional districts, you get 270.
The problem for the Trump campaign, some of the indications we have been getting from early voting from the demographic patterns we have seen in some of the early voting, suggest he is in trouble in some of these great state.
I will give you one specifically, Nevada. Nevada is looking very shaky based on the indications we have right now. And it seems, look. If you give just one state, give Nevada to Clinton, she is over 270. She would be president-elect unless, and this where Donald Trump`s last minute strategy comes in, unless you can take one of the states that`s already blue and flip it to the Republican side. So where is Donald Trump been spending his time? This is raise to my brows, but think about this. We saw him in Minnesota today. Michigan is a state they are suddenly focusing on. Pennsylvania, Virginia, blue states all. Why is the Trump campaign suddenly looking at these? They are looking at them because if they start looking gray states and they need blue states, what is the formula they are looking for? They are looking for places where there kinds of voters are. What`s their kind of voters? We are talking about rural white voters. We are talking about non-college white voters. We are also potentially talking about states that don`t have large Latino populations. That`s another story hear.
So you start looking at these states. When they look inside Minnesota, this is an ultra, ultra-long shot. Make no mistake. But if you are the Trump campaign, what do you see? You think about the iron range up here. This is a very blue collar white area of the state, traditionally Democratic. There have been some indications that Donald Trump could win the congressional district up here that`s normally democratic. So you think, maybe we could do something there if you are a Trump campaign. Maybe the Upper Peninsula in Michigan. The rural parts of northern Michigan. McComb County outside Detroit. The rural parts of Pennsylvania. Southwest Virginia. Run up the score in the rural areas, run up the score with non-college white votes like we have ever seen and then maybe, maybe you could flip one or two of these states. This is an indication of the trouble they are having in some of these toss-up states. If they can`t run the table here, you need a Hail Mary pass in one of these blue states. Those are the states we have looked for a Hail Mary pass.
WILLIAMS: Steve Kornacki, thank you.
Chris Matthews is here in our table. What do you make of this? I mean, before the night is over, Donald Trump`s going to Loud County (ph) in Leesburg, Virginia on the western end of the that band outside D.C. They are up in Lake we all begun country in Minnesota for goodness sake.
MATTHEWS: Well, they are desperate. But the pattern is clear. This has been -- I mean, it`s a sad commentary you might say on the Democratic Party now. They used to be the party of the little guy, the little woman, the forgotten man Roosevelt column. And now, it`s the party of the college educated because if there`s one indicator you look at right now, did you finish college? Did you have any chance to go to college? And they tend to be people voting for Hillary Clinton, who is very well educated and reserved represents the establishment class in this country, the leadership class.
And the Democratic Party used to represent those people. But now, when you look at, and we are going to hear from Robert Costa about this from western Pennsylvania. I think you have to go outside the city of Philadelphia where I was born. Outside the suburbs where people read the newspaper, catch the train, maybe go to New York for a play once in a while. They are sophisticated. You go beyond that sort of the privileged area really of the big city, Pittsburg as well and you reach the Trump voter. And he is outnumbered. It is a he mostly. He is a well outnumbered and he is angry. And the question I think we got to start dealing with eventually within the next 48 hours is where they going to go next? I mean, are they going to go back to the Republican Party under Paul Ryan? Will he be able to bring them in or will he go - will the Democrats go looking for him?
I would like to see a competition for them. I would like to see Hillary Clinton say, you know, and she said today, you didn`t vote for me and may be angry at me, you may suspect me for whatever reason but I`m going to try to bring you in. And the interesting thing is, minorities because of their economic status in this country, have the same status as working and poor whites. They should have the same issues. My concern, remember the great "Saturday Night Live" thing two, three weeks ago, it showed the guy doing black jeopardy and Tom Hanks played the Trump guy who had tall right answers, the sort of black (INAUDIBLE). So it could bring them together.
WILLIAMS: I have enjoyed my moment though, personally, as a non-college educated white male. I have never felt so sought out there and so special.
Our friend Lawrence O`Donnell is in our sister studio just next door with our insiders. And they are going to weigh in on everything we have witnessed today.
LAWRENCE O`DONNELL, MSNBC HOST, THE LAST WORD: Brian, we are lucky we have the guys who are here from tonight. James Carville and Steve Schmidt. They have both been there on a Sunday night before the Tuesday presidential election.
James, 1992. You were with a candidate called Clinton who was polling in the 40s going in to Tuesday. But here`s something you didn`t have to deal with, a letter from the FBI director. You got a campaign playbook between the two of you that tells you what to do when you get a letter from the FBI director?
JAMES CARVILLE, BILL CLINTON ADVISOR: This is the single strangest thing I have ever seen in present politics starting from the press conference to the first letter, now the second letter. I have never seen anything like this. It`s remarkable. But you are right, there is no play book. Political something 101, there`s not the FBI letter.
O`DONNELL: And Steve, so far, candidate Clinton, Hillary Clinton has not said a word about this new letter.
STEVE SCHMIDT, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: No, exactly. But I don`t think there`s much to say about it. Look. The FBI director had this extraordinary intervention politically into the race. The FBI, the most hollow law enforcement organization of the world is leaking in this election like the secret police organization from a Banana Republic.
It is another institution you can put squarely on the list of discredited ones. Institutions that have lost the trust of the American people as a direct result of the directors in confidents in his politicization of the agency over the last few weeks.
But look. Hillary Clinton went from being on a track to be between 350 to 400 electoral votes. Commanding lead in this race and this hurt. But look, I think that you look at map. You know, she is on track here to be over 300 electoral votes, somewhere between 320 to 340 heading in to.
O`DONNELL: James, I never forgot that in 1992, you guys with Bill Clinton won the presidency with 43 percent of the vote because Ross Perot was a strong third party. And that number was an amazing number. But what I didn`t realize and had to look up months ago and was kind of stunned by is that you got 100 more Electoral College votes than you need. At 43 percent of the vote, you got 370 Electoral College votes.
CARVILLE: Right. But remember, in the Electoral College, it`s a plurality. It is not a majority. And Perot got 19. And remember, Bush was incumbent and he got 38, right. So it kind of predominant. Look, I thought that Steve`s presentation of the map was actually I agreed with. The thing that I`m a little surprised going to Loudon County, Virginia. I`m not sure that`s his target rich area of Virginia, but he does have a very tough map. Of all those gray states, the mother of them all is Florida. I mean, that`s 29.
O`DONNELL: Steve, you see Donald Trump flying to Minnesota.
Like the end of a football game. You know, the dropping back. It`s fourth down. There is three seconds left on the clock. You are throwing the ball as hard and far as you can down the field, hoping a receiver is going to pop up with it in the end zone. But you know, it`s unlikely to happen. You know, statistically, he is not going win Minnesota. He is highly unlikely to win, you know, to win the state of Michigan.
But look. We kind of come up the sea board, the state of Florida, state of North Carolina. We look west to Arizona and you see some of the early voting numbers now with Hispanic vote in this country. It may well be that we are sitting around on Wednesday morning saying this race was lost at the very first hour when Donald Trump came down the escalator and talked about Mexicans as rapists and murders in this race. And we may hear a tidal wave crashing of Latino vote here on Tuesday night that will forever change American politics.
And you look. In 2004 race that Nicole and I were, you know, very much part of, you know, President Bush`s reelection, we was -- the one race, that last six, that Republicans had won the popular vote. We got 43 percent of the Hispanic vote. I mean, Donald Trump is going to be down less than 19.
CARVILLE: There is two things (INAUDIBLE) in election. In the morning is how many people voted. If the health of democracy as somehow, if the number of voter participation is some indication of it, then we can say the democracy healthy. The second thing we are going to say I`m sure is the country that has never been more divided. And not just by race, but as Chris point out, by education, by location. The cities and the inner suburbs are going to be overwhelmingly democratic. The small towns and the rural areas are going to be overwhelming Republicans.
O`DONNELL: All right. We got to go back to the mother ship. Brian, back to you.
WILLIAMS: All right. Lawrence, thank you. Thank you to our guests, our insiders.
We are going to take another break and the national political reporter with "the Washington Post" is standing by to talk to us about a state the Clinton campaign considers load bearing. That and more as the Zamboni works hard on a Sunday night when we come back.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KELLYANNE CONWAY, TRUMP CAMPAIGN SENIOR ADVISOR/GOP POLLSTER: So we need basically spent all last week, Chris, for nine straight days in pining the integrity of Jim Comey, only because they didn`t like his latest move. I think that`s really unfortunate. Even the president of the United States got into the act saying that we don`t deal with innuendo, we don`t deal with speculation, we don`t - this, you shouldn`t be interfering with an election. So do they think this announcement two days before the polls close is quote "interfering with an election?" And so, I think that they just were way out of bounds in the vicious attack on Jim Comey because they didn`t like the result.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MADDOW: Donald Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway tonight on "Hardball with Chris Matthews."
Chris Matthews, we have been talking a lot about Pennsylvania tonight. Both candidates are just blitzing in these last few days, but they are both in Pennsylvania today.
MATTHEWS: Let`s go to Robert Costa. Robert Costa has been covering. He is the national political reporter for "the Washington Post."
Robert, give us a picture of the two kinds of voters in Pennsylvania. All- states have them. The Trump voter and non-Trump voter.
ROBERT COSTA, NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER, THE WASHINGTON POST: Chris, to start off, this car drive caused Pennsylvania. And you see western Pennsylvania exactly what you have been observing. There`s a lot of Trump signs out there. There is enthusiasm for Trump especially among white working class voters. But in the city of Pittsburgh, the city of Philadelphia, the organization is there for Secretary Clinton. The turnout is there. So you could be seeing extraordinary turnout among the Trump base, but the Clinton base which is growing especially in the diverse fine suburb, it`s there as well.
MATTHEWS: What makes the Republicans every quadrennial believe they can snatch Pennsylvania from the Democratic fold? Every year they see - every time they seem to believe they can do it.
COSTA: It`s not just a direct shot. It has got to be a bang shot if you are a Republican in Pennsylvania. You got to get the Republicans who are skittish in Bucks County and other Philadelphia suburbs back into the fold. There is a lot of thought when I was in Bucks County, that the FBI probe. That news may pushed Republicans toward Trump. But you have got Democrats in Philadelphia and in the suburbs. This is an educated area. This is an area that`s moving toward being a blue region of the state.
MATTHEWS: The big five are going there tomorrow night to the city of the big five. You know about that. The basketball team. We have got the president, his wife, the former president, Hillary Clinton, the three -- the two Obamas, the three Clintons and Bruce Springsteen and Bon Jovi. Why Philly? I mean, love the fight are going to that city we both love. But why all this? Effort concentrated in one city the night before election.
COSTA: Because if the turnout in Philadelphia is strong and you get not only the urban voters in Philadelphia, but you get the Springsteen voters in the suburbs and elsewhere, then any kind of strange occurrence in west, if you get hundreds of thousands of working class voters who usually don`t turn out coming out in the Pittsburgh suburbs and (INAUDIBLE), then the Democrats will be fine. If it comes out around President Obama levels in terms of Democratic turnout in Philly.
MATTHEWS: Thank you so much, Robert Costa.
The why suppose, Rachel, this is almost like the Dominican Republic and Haiti. They share the same land mass, but they are two different cultures. The area around Philadelphia is probably the Amtrak route. It is part of the east coast. It is liberal. It is cosmopolited (ph). It is diverse. It includes a lot of white liberals, not just minorities, and then you get out.
I remember in high school, I guess, we went to Redding, Pennsylvania. And I know that the religious retreat. I noticed the jukeboxes has cowboy music on them. And I realized, this T, that Carville talks about, it`s Alabama in the middle, it`s pretty true.
MADDOW: You know, and the political contest over Pennsylvania because of that gets really intense in terms of the ability for people to vote and voter intimidation issues. I mean, right, you see, it`s not an accident that when Trump and Pence have been saying, you know, go out and poll watch. You got to make sure we are watching people vote. Leave your own precinct and go watch these other places. They keep talking about Philadelphia.
MATTHEWS: But they are not going to win this.
MADDOW: They want rural white Pennsylvania.
MATTHEWS: But Gene, I don`t think this is going to happen.
ROBINSON: No, I don`t think it`s going to happen either, you know. But it is fascinating that urban rural or urban/small town split that you see in Pennsylvania is really what is happening in the rest of the country writ- large. I mean, it really is. You see it in Alabama, you know, in the real Alabama where a city like Birmingham is very liberal. And increasingly so, and then you go a few miles outside and you are literally in Alabama and that`s true in Georgia, with Atlanta, the metropolis of Atlanta, Texas.
MADDOW: It`s true in New York. I mean.
ROBINSON: It certainly true with Texas where the cities are bright blue and everything else is red.
MADDOW: Explains --
MATTHEWS: We don`t say writ large.
WALLACE: It explains her schedule. I mean, a lot - they have been on the defense in explaining their schedule. This dynamic explains their schedule. And this explains that they are going to have to knit together what you have been talking about all of you this morning. That the reason they are in blue states reliably blue states is because their vote breaks down amongst those economic lines. And the reason they are in Pennsylvania shoring it up is because they are not positive that there aren`t enough. I mean, they are pretty sure, but they wouldn`t be there if they were positive. They wouldn`t be in Michigan if they were positive that they are not enough of these white - non-college educated voters.
So what`s so interesting is even a campaign and a candidate with all of the resources and all of the traditional metrics and really far superior polling, far superior ground game, they are still going to Michigan. They are still going to Pennsylvania with seven celebrities. They are in Ohio with LeBron James. This is a tougher state for them. But they are still doing all of these things because they are not totally positive.
MADDOW: And that ten days ago, this was not the schedule for the end of the campaign. This is the Comey effect. This is what Jim Comey did to the election. That he put Donald Trump in Minnesota tonight and Hillary Clinton in Michigan. And that is the way, that`s the effect of the momentum change in this race that was put on this race by the external actions of the FBI. And that`s - I mean, I think it is unforgivable sin for the FBI, but I don`t know that it`s something we know how to project from because we have never seen it in the modern years.
WILLIAMS: For our viewers Friday night who did not see Chris Matthews in person reporting of the Democratic boss in the city of Philadelphia, if you missed that, but if you were watching tonight, you could have known, he went home for a little while because he used the word attitude on the air, on television.
MATTHEWS: Brian, you know. Brian, imported from there long enough to know that.
We`re going to go to a break and has this out. We will be right back.
MATTHEWS: He is giving me attitude.
WILLIAMS: We are back skating over the candidates, they are. But soon, we will need the rink of election night for our blue and red state map of the United States. We will get results on election night, I promise. But for right now, the best thing we have is polling. There`s a lot of it. Not all of it agrees, but we have no shortage.
MADDOW: We have tons of polling. And actually, it is -- depending on what kind of political junky you are. It is either great news or terrible news that a two days from now, we will have no more polling.
MADDOW: This is all going to be gone.
WILLIAMS: And shaking as you are talking.
MADDOW: I don`t even know how to eat breakfast anymore without reading the first polls in the day. But there is one thing in the polling that I just want to point out. For everything that we have been through, over the course of this campaign, for everything that has changed, all the twist and turns, some reversals of fortune.
Just look at this for a second. We are going put this up on the screen. This is how Hillary Clinton was viewed at the start of the campaign in January, 40 percent positive. You see that? Here is how Hillary Clinton is viewed now at the end of the campaign, October 26th. Look, 40 percent positive -- 40 percent in January. 40 percent in October.
Now look at Donald Trump. Start of the campaign. This is January Donald Trump. Viewed positively by 29 percent of the country. Now, Donald Trump has gone from 29 percent then to this is October, to 29 percent now.
The country has not changed. I mean, in terms of the likability, which is the basically the core view of these candidates, we haven`t changed over the course of everything that has happened in this campaign. And even if you ask people how they feel about the prospect of either of these candidate being elected, again, look at this. These numbers, as they start in February and they go through to October. This is would you be hopeful or satisfied if Donald Trump wins? Thirty three percent say yes. In October, 34 percent say yes. It`s exactly the same for Hillary Clinton. Would you be hopeful or satisfied if she wins, 43 in February, 43 now.
I mean, this campaign has been riveting. It has been through almost unimaginable twist and turns. But you know what, these candidates and Brian Williams has talked about this from the very beginning of this campaign. These candidates were household names from the very, very beginning of this. We knew how we feel about them and we still feel exactly the same way given everything that we have been through.
WILLIAMS: I felt Donald Trump was first presidential candidate with 100 percent walking away name recognition.
MADDOW: And the only other candidate for that is Hillary Clinton.
MADDOW: And the country -- we knew what we thought about them before. We have had that reaffirmed over all these months.
WILLIAMS: All of this somehow brings us to Hugh Hewitt. He of the radio show that bears his name. He was here in our New York studios.
And Hugh, back to these numbers. You know, hacksaw ridge, the film, has come out and it`s another one of those films about a pitched battle loss of blood and treasure over a small, knurly, ugly piece of the earth. And it seems to me with all the arguing, fussing and fighting, all the words spent to Rachel`s point, her graphic, what have we learned as journalist psyche to say the journalist at this point?
HUGH HEWITT, NATIONALLY SYNDICATED TALK RADIO HOST: Well, the map has changed. I would say we learned that Donald Trump promised to shake up the map. President Obama won Iowa by six point points. It looks like Donald Trump is going to win Iowa. President Obama won Ohio by a couple of point. It looks like Donald Trump is going to win Ohio.
And Gene and I both know Michigan. Michigan is a lot like Pennsylvania. Two deep blue dots in Ann Arbor and Detroit. And Google has its big new campus there. But out of the western, Dutch reform, part of the state or a hail tail college (ph), the land into the north. Donald Trump sees an opening like he sees in Pennsylvania. Doesn`t have coal country, which might make it a harder play. So Donald Trump did change the map of American electoral system.
However, in some doing, the back door Florida where the Latino vote surge is real and it`s not going favorable to Donald Trump, it`s not impossible that we could wake up on Wednesday and he would have taken Iowa, Ohio and either or both at Pennsylvania and Michigan and still lost because he lost Florida. It is a very strange era.
WILLIAMS: Yes. But, you know, to leave the map out of it, you went to Harvard for goodness sake. What`s the larger message of what we have just been through?
HEWITT: I think the larger message has to do with I brought up before JD Vance`s book, (INAUDIBLE). A lot of people are worried about their kid`s future. They believe that if you have got connection, your kids have a ladder than others kids don`t have. They believe. And Peggy Noon has written about this extensively, about the protected the unprotected in America. And the unprotected America that are not minority believe very strongly that Donald Trump is sounding their alarm about what`s happening the American dream. They are talking about this in the green room with Steve Schmidt, Jim Carville and Robert Costa.
There`s a lot to think through on this. But I`ll go back to something Rachel said. I have to just say, Secretary Clinton owns this Comey thing because she put the severs together. And just today, we have the cutter story. We have that weird maid story in the "New York Post" and we have the dog ban email to John Podesta about Chelsea getting foundation to pay for the wedding. I mean, this is -- it never stops. So her negatives have come back and the states have come into play not because of director Comey, but because of Secretary Clinton.
WILLIAMS: All of those stories, you just heard Mr. Hewitt mentioned, have not been reported fully by NBC News.
But Hugh Hewitt, thank you. We will be talking to you along the way.
MATTHEWS: Rachel, all those numbers you gave us about how nothing changed from the beginning to the end, it does bring into question the charge of the power of the media because all the information we have delivered every night, every hour on the hour and it hasn`t changed public opinion about basic attitude one wit.
MADDOW: I think people do have a lot more information about both of these candidates. I think if you ask people a quiz on the basics of them in January, you would get different answers. But in terms of whether or not people like them or not, same answer.
WALLACE: I think it also speaks to how settled this race has been for a very, very long time. This is been a four, five point race for many, many months.
WILLIAMS: Doesn`t always felt like it.
WALLACE: And I don`t think it felt like it to the Clinton camp when the story broke, it probably narrow to about to three-point race. But it may settle back as a five-point race by Tuesday.
ROBINSON: I`ll tell you who it felt settled to, black people and Latinos.
MADDOW: We are going to come back right after this.
WILLIAMS: So I would we will be back right after this break.
MATTHEWS: Where are you looking?
MADDOW: Who are you people? Didn`t know you could come in from that angle.
WILLIAMS: Back here from 30 rock.
Steve Schmidt said today that the Latino vote if it is lost by Trump will have been lost in the first hour of his first campaign event. Chuck Todd said today the Latino vote as a story may be one of the huge driving themes. We will be covering in this very room on election night.
Our Steve Kornacki at the big board with a look at the Latino vote.
KORNACKI: Yes. I mean, the indications -- some of the indications at least that we are getting are obviously Trump getting crushed when it comes to Latino voters at least in the early voting so far and some of the polling. But also maybe, maybe higher, much higher potentially Latino turnout in this election. Now, if that happens, what does it do to the electoral map here? Where is it most significant? It is obviously very significant in Florida. This is pretty close to a must-win state for Donald Trump. It is very significant in Nevada. It is very significant in Arizona. It could potentially make the difference for Hillary Clinton in all of these states.
There is a flip-side to this though. If you are looking for the potential for there to be a sort of shakeup in this map, we are also getting some indications that African-American turnout may not be as high as it was in 2012, 2008. Enthusiasm among black voters may be down. Where could that potentially work to Trump`s favor? That could potentially help him in a state like North Carolina. Could potentially help him in a state like Ohio? We are talking about states here that don`t have as significant of a Latino population where the non-white population is more of a largely black population.
If the black turnout is low, could help Trump in these states. And also Pennsylvania. Let me just show you quickly something inside Pennsylvania here because you probably -- that wasn`t supposed to happen. You probably notice that Clinton campaign has scheduled a rally, the final night, tomorrow night. Barack Obama is going to be there. Hillary Clinton is going to be there in Philadelphia.
Well, check this out. These are the results in Philadelphia four years ago. No surprise Obama won it. What was the margin, though, out of Philadelphia? It was nearly half a million votes for Obama, 500,000. That speaks to the incredible black turnout that Barack Obama generated. When John Kerry was the democratic candidate in 2004, that margin was closer to 400,000. That`s a big difference. So the Clinton campaign, one thing that they are a little concerned about are some of these indications about black enthusiasm and black turnout. So this is a blue state that Trump has some interest in. The indications are Clinton is ahead but they want to get that black turnout number as high as they can. There is the reason why.
MADDOW: Yes. Very hard to be the next act in Democratic politics after the first African-American president when you are talking about trying to maintain those African-American vote numbers and enthusiasm.
I will say, though, that if you are just going to watch one number in the polling between now and Election Day watch the national Latino number. I mean, the last time the presidency was won by a Republican it was George W. Bush in 2004 when he got 44 percent of the vote. Four years later, McCain, dropped to 31, he lost. Four years later with Romney dropped to 27, he lost. Donald Trump in the new NBC/"Wall Street Journal" Telmundo poll, his number is down to 20 percent. And that is a number by which you lose the presidency. That`s fatal unless everything else changes a lot more than we think it`s going to change. If there is only one number to watch, watch that one.
WILLIAMS: Back with more right after this.
WILLIAMS: You are looking live. Everybody`s schedule goes late when you are within three, two, one day of the vote. Mike Pence working late in Wyndham, New Hampshire.
Again, the battle for New Hampshire, one of those we probably couldn`t have predicted in full when we got started on this. But it goes on tonight. Minute and a half left in this broadcast.
Rachel made the point right before the break, if you`re going to watch one number on election night -- and people have their favorites that they are going to be watching -- watch the Latino vote.
I would take that one step further. If you`re going to watch one network, does this need to be said really? That this is the family? Really, we are America`s -- we are America`s dysfunctional
WILLIAMS: I say that with love in my heart. Yes. Nothing but love in my heart.
MADDOW: Listen. I mean, I will say one thing that I like about working here at this time is that things are so freaking, tense. Yes. Things are really intense and they are tense and people are really at each other`s throats.
WILLIAMS: I think we reflect the nation.
MADDOW: But I think this is a place where we have been able to talk about this stuff and get into the meat of it without being uncivil. And I wouldn`t want to be anywhere else than here tomorrow and tomorrow just I am excited about it.
MATTHEWS: I think the Republicans are going to learn a bad lesson Tuesday night which is you can`t spot 25 percent of the election and win the general. You have to bring minorities in. They a shot. They lost the African-American vote in the 60s and the civil rights movement. They never made the phone call to Mrs. King. Jack Kennedy did. I think the Mexican- American vote particularly could have been a great opportunity for the Republican Party.
WALLACE: I agree.
MADDOW: And I think that - and the Latino vote right now -- not just the preference, but if the turnout is as big as it`s going to be it could change national politics forever.
WILLIAMS: And this is how much fun we are going to be on Tuesday. Just getting started.
Lawrence O`Donnell, thanks my friend from here - Lawrence.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. END