Show: THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW Date: November 2, 2016 Guest: Brahm Resnik
RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC HOST: Good evening, Chris. Thanks, my friend.
CHRIS HAYES, "ALL IN" HOST: You bet.
MADDOW: And thanks to you at home for joining us this hour. Happy Wednesday.
This is Robert Rozier. R-o-z-i-e-r. Robert Rozier was born in Alaska, who`s a really, really excellent football player. He went to UC-Berkeley. He played defensive end for Cal.
And then after his time at Cal, he was drafted into the NFL. In the 1979 NFL draft, he was a ninth round draft pick. He went to the St. Louis Cardinals. Unfortunately, for Robert Rozier and for the Cardinals, though, he didn`t last even half a season. He ended up getting kicked off the Cardinals squad, banged around the league for not all that many weeks. He did end up playing for a little while in Canada.
But ultimately, Robert Rozier ended up back in the United States and in prison. Ultimately after that prison term by 1982, he had landed himself in a cult in south Florida. And like lots of cults, the one that Robert Rozier found himself in in the Miami area in the early 1980s.
It was headed up by a guy who proclaimed himself to be the messiah. He called himself Lord Son of the Lord. He called him Yahweh Ben Yahweh. And the Miami area, specifically in Miami Gardens in Carroll City, Yahweh Ben Yahweh and his cult, they actually built themselves up into a little bit of an empire.
There were a lot of them. They fixed up decrepit housing. They built themselves a headquarters, they ran bible study and home schools for kids out of their big compound. They ran a bunch of different businesses.
They had buses and vehicles and trucks. They even made products that was apparently Yahweh beer and Yahweh soda and Yahweh hair products. Behold, Yahweh ice cream from the time.
And even though the Yahweh Ben Yahweh thing, it really was a cult. Really was run by a guy who said he was god. They did do some good in their community and they got positive attention for the good things that they did in their community.
Yahweh Ben Yahweh was invited to address a group of Miami business leaders at one point in the 1980s. And they might have forgotten he was a cult leader, and that have thought of him as just the community leader, and until he got up and told them, quote, "Egypt has her pyramids. India has her Taj Mahal. France has her Eiffel Tower. Miami has me."
Miami, he said, has the son of Yahweh, the world`s greatest attraction is here in your midst. I`m here.
By October of 1990, the mayor of Miami actually proclaimed Yahweh Ben Yahweh Day for the city of Miami in recognition for this cult leader`s accomplishments, for what his cult had done that was good for the city of Miami.
Sadly, within a month of Yahweh Ben Yahweh Day being proclaimed in Miami, within a month of that, that was October 1990, by November 1990, the whole thing had actually turned into a horror movie. On November 7th, 1990, happened to be the day after election day that year, Yahweh Ben Yahweh himself, a cult leader and 15 of his followers were all indicted on horrific charges, a whole litany of charges including racketeering and violent crime.
This is a case that had been a long time coming, but the centerpiece of their indictment was conspiracy to murder 14 different people. The cult was blamed for 14 different deaths. At trial, there was testimony that in order to become part of the inner circle of this cult in Miami in the `80s, the cult leader Yahweh Ben Yahweh, he demanded a sort of entrance fee to get into the inner circle.
The entrance fee was you had to kill a white person and bring Yahweh Ben Yahweh either that white person`s severed head or if you couldn`t manage the severed head, you at least bring him an ear. That`s how he would let you into the inner circle of his cult.
Robert Rozier who had had that promising football career at Cal in the NFL, at that trial he confessed to taking part in seven murders for the cult. At the end of that trial, Yahweh Ben Yahweh and most of the other people who were put on trial with him were convicted of various crimes.
And the Yahweh cult in south Florida is still famous to this day because of the number of people that they killed, right? They were a black supremacist, serial killing death cult that was really visible in Miami. For a time it held sway over some portions of some neighborhoods in city of Miami, but then it all quickly unraveled into this incredibly gruesome serial killer story.
And the story itself as a story. It was amazing, "The Miami Herald" in 1991, they won the Pulitzer Prize for a series of 80 articles that they did on the Yahweh Ben Yahweh cult. "The Miami Herald" tracked down defectors from the cult. They ultimately tracked down the cult leader and the members to the 14 different deaths that the cult was associated with that ultimately got them all charged.
It was incredible reporting for "The Miami Herald". Nowadays, it`s "The Miami New Times", the alternative weekly in Miami, that has taken up the baton on Yahweh Ben Yahweh death cult reporting. And their angle on it now, the reason they`ve had to take that up now in 2016 is this year, "The Miami New Times" has taken it upon themselves to remind everybody about this serial murdering black supremacist Miami death cult from the early `90s whenever this guy shows up. See that guy there, "Blacks for Trump", whenever that guy shows up at a Donald Trump rally.
You have seen that guy with the blacks for Trump sign, gods2.com. You see him going back tore a few months now. Trump organizers seemed to go out of their way to put that guy, the guy with his blacks for Trump sign. They seem to go out of their way to put him in camera view when Trump is speaking.
He`s been there and they`ve put him there in camera view at multiple events over the course of the campaign. I kid you not, we had Trump himself grabbed the guy`s sign and hold it up himself. He held up a "Women for Trump" sign and kissed it, then held up the "Blacks for Trump" sign that he got from the guy in the crowd.
Today in Miami, Donald Trump singled him out the guy holding the "Blacks for Trump" single, single him out a couple of different times to say how much he loved him.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you. I love that sign, blacks for Trump. I love that sign. Thank you. Thank you, fellas. That`s so good. Blacks for Trump. That`s so nice.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MADDOW: The guy who himself is most often the person you can see holding that sign, the guy we saw get up there and hold that sign behind Trump, he has gone by a few names over the years. He now likes to be known as Michael the Black Man.
But he is one of the Yahweh Ben Yahweh cult members who was indicted on the conspiracy to murder charges in Miami back in the day. The guy holding the "Blacks for Trump" sign who you see, that guy there you see at so many Trump rallies who the Trump organizers keep putting right behind Trump at rallies, he was charged with two murders in the Yahweh Ben Yahweh serial murder trial.
Ultimately, he was not convicted but "The Miami New Times" points out this was his past, particularly when he gets personally shouted out by Donald Trump, and oftentimes held up by the conservative media as a sign of real black support for Donald Trump. They keep pointing him out, pointing out his signs because it`s basically their contention that -- "The Miami New Times" is basically their contention that what this guy Michael the Black Man is trying to do is he`s trying to reconstitute the Yahweh Ben Yahweh cult. He`s always maintained that Yahweh Ben Yahweh was robbed in that trial, that the cult did nothing wrong.
And he is seemingly trying to build his own following as a religious leader. The website that`s advertised underneath "Blacks for Trump", that`s a sort of semi-religious website that he`s advertising there, that he maintains himself on the bottom of his "Blacks for Trump" signs. Michael the black man himself declared, I should tell you, his own run for president last fall. Back in September, he said he was running for president this year.
And the reason Republican campaigns including Donald Trump`s have been so willing to put him on camera, the reason that politicians like Rick Santorum have even had Michael the Black Man open up for Rick Santorum at a south Florida political event, the reason they`re willing to give him so much attention is because part of his insane cult-like theology is how much he hates Democrats and how Democrats are the devil. Incidentally, he also says that Barack Obama is a member of the Ku Klux Klan.
But his theology, his sort of bizarre cultish theology has now morphed this year into loving Donald Trump and going to all the Donald Trump rallies.
But the partisan appeal of him holding up the sign that says "Blacks for Trump", the reason that`s been so attractive to Republicans and the Trump campaign in particular that I think they`ve been willing to let this guy get on stage and advertise his website and get all this attention from the candidate and all the rest without asking too many questions about who exactly he is and why exactly he`s there. And that`s probably wise because here is what happens when you do ask him those questions.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFEID MALE: Owen Shroyer from infowars.com. And I`m here with Michael the Black Man on the radio. Now, let`s get a quick look at his shirt real quick. There`s the shirt he is repping tonight.
Now, Michael, tell me, why are you wearing this shirt?
MICHAEL THE BLACK MAN: I`m wearing this to show my support for Donald Trump and my disdain for Hillary Clinton who is actually the financier of slavery. What do you mean she`s the financier? Her name is Hillary Rodham Clinton, supposed to be the descendants of the Rothschilds and her biggest donor is Len Rothschild, because Rothschild, the Rockefeller and JPMorgan are the financiers of slavery.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MADDOW: He`s for Trump and he`s against Hillary Clinton because of the way you spell the word Rodham shows her to be a descendant of Rothschild and -- but if you really want to know, if you really want to know the philosophy behind blacks for Trump, this guy you see at all the Trump events, including today`s Trump Miami rally, the real heart for the "Blacks for Trump" and why he wears the shirts that says Trump and Republicans are not racist, if you really want to get to the heart of why he believes it, well, here in his own words is his real explanation.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAEL THE BLACK MAN: We are the true Hebrews and we`re the chosen once of god. And don`t let them trick you into thinking your some damn cave man that was living in the rocks in the side of the mountain. The people living in the rocks and the side of the mountains are Hillary Clinton and those Canaanite.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And her supporters.
MICHAEL THE BLACK MAN: No, not just the supporters, it really is a group that`s actually called a Canaanite that you see in the nightclubs and the black thing, they`re really white with the blue veins, they even call themselves blue bloods. These guys are cursed with the curse. We with call it albinoism because they`ve got that little cross out part and they never come out in the daytime.
These people are the Canaanites that were cursed and they into Ishmael in Genesis Chapter 36 and created an organization called the Hyksos and Hyksos became called the Egyptians, Egyptians became called the Philistines, the Philistines became called the Babylonians. The Babylonians became called the Phoenicians. The Phoenicians became called the Kasars (ph), the Israeli, and today, they`re called Illuminati.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MADDOW: Oh. It`s the illuminati, the guys in the nightclubs with the fingernails.
Even the reporter from the conspiracy theory website Infowars is like getting a little too much of an earful from the "Blacks for Trump" guy who was once indicted as part of the Yahweh Ben Yahweh death cult for multiple murders.
But the Trump campaign keeps putting him front and center at Trump rallies, as recently as today. They`ve got Donald Trump shouting him out, thanking him for his support, pointing him out at Trump events.
This is the first presidential election since we`ve had an African-American president in this country. It would have been hard to for see, I think, when we were electing our first black men president that this is how one of the two major parties would be handling racial politics and what he perceives to be the core of his support in the African-American community this late in the presidential race to succeed our first African-American president. But that is where we are at.
Tonight is also the night that Republican U.S. Senate candidate David Duke, former grand lizard of the Ku Klux Klan qualified to appear in an official candidates debate in the senate race in Louisiana. David Duke, Republican candidate, was among six U.S. Senate candidates who are polling high enough in Louisiana to make the stage for tonight`s debate, which was held, I`m sad to say, at Dillard University, which is a black college in New Orleans.
Dillard, of course, agreed out of the kindness of their heart to be a host for the debate. At the outset of the campaign, they had no idea that would ultimately involve an invitation to the nation`s best self-promoting Klansman and white supremacist.
Dillard did go ahead with hosting this debate tonight, though, including David Duke. It just wrapped up within the last few minutes. Dillard in its infinite wisdom, they did decide that it would be held in front of an empty room. They held it in an auditorium but did not convene an audience for David Duke and the other Senate candidates tonight.
There were plenty of protesters at Dillard tonight who would have been very happy to have themselves in there had they been let in, but they were not let in. There were reports that protesters were teargassed by police.
Meanwhile, Mississippi this morning, the town of Greenville woke up to. This is Hopewell Baptist Church in Greenville. It has about 200 members. Greenville is a mostly black city of 34,000 people in delta in Mississippi and sometime last night, police chief in Greenville says a deliberately set fire broke out at this black church.
By morning, as you can see, the church was significantly damaged and you can read the graffiti under the smoldering windows, vote Trump. And nobody has in idea who set this fire at this black church or why they did so. The graffiti does not speak for itself. We don`t know if this was set by a Trump supporter or somebody trying to make Trump supporters look as evil as possible. But that black church in Greenville, Mississippi, did burn.
There`s an $11,000 reward for information leading to the conviction of whoever set that fire. The FBI says they begin a civil rights investigation into that arson. The only silver lining here is that a Go Fund Me page was set up this morning to raise $10,000 to help that black church rebuild.
That Go Fund Me page hit its $10,000 goal within minutes and now actually as of tonight they`re up closer to $100,000. So that is good. People can be good. People can be great.
But a lot of what`s going on right now is nuts. The mayor of Greenville, Mississippi, said today what happened to that church appears to be a race crime. He says it happened in the `50s, it happened in the `60s, it should not happen in 2016.
2016 is a signal year and a benchmark year for African-American communities in our country, right? As the first black president prepares to leave office and we have to decide as a country who is going to replace him.
And this kind of nonsense, this kind of curdled, toxic nonsense is not what anybody would have expected we`d be dealing with in the last six days of this presidential campaign, but it is, in fact, what we`ve got today. President Obama himself today sounded a clarion call to African-American communities that Hillary Clinton may be in trouble this year. His legacy may be in trouble if African-Americans don`t turn out to vote than they have been turning out so far this year. That`s very serious math that the Democratic Party is reckoning with right now.
That math and more straight ahead tonight.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MADDOW: President Obama today in North Carolina gave a rollicking appearance, very upbeat appearance on behalf of Hillary Clinton`s campaign. President Obama is basically going to be flooring it between now and Tuesday, between now and Election Day. He was in North Carolina today.
He`s in Miami and Jacksonville tomorrow. He`s back in North Carolina again for two more events on Friday. Then on Sunday, he`s in Orlando, then on Monday, he`s in New Hampshire.
But on top of that very busy schedule, in addition to the rally that he did today in North Carolina, President Obama also today went on the Tom Joyner Radio Show. And he made a passionate plea particularly to black voters, a passionate plea to lack voters to start turning out to vote in bigger numbers than they have some more.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I have to go do some more campaigning, but I hope everybody is listening. I mean this from the bottom of my heart. The people who listen to your show, Tom, you personally, Sybil, everybody, you guys lifted us up so mightily over these last eight years.
I would not have been president, Michelle would not have been first lady. We wouldn`t have gotten everything done that we did had it not been for you and all your listeners and all the people who stood in line, all the people who prayed for us and all the people who worked for us and volunteered and called and knocked on doors. And I could not be more grateful.
But I just want everybody to understand we got one more race here. Even though my name`s not on the ballot, our legacy`s all at stake. And we can`t take it for granted.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
MADDOW: There will likely never be African-American turnout again like there was for the first African-American president. The question is, though, how much can that vote slip if Democrats still want to win the presidency?
There is an answer for that. That`s an empirical question that has an empirical answer.
The closest we`ve got to a man who has that answer joins us next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MADDOW: Many of the headlines you`ve probably seen about the presidential race shows that the polls are tightening or even heading in Donald Trump`s favor at least when it comes to national polling. Some tracking polls out today, the investors business daily national tracking poll shows Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump tied at 44 percent in the four-way race.
The ABC national poll, the ABC News/"Washington Post" daily tracking poll shows a tie race. It shows Secretary Clinton and Donald Trump both at 46 percent.
Another daily tracking poll out today, "The L.A. Times"/USC tracking poll has Donald Trump up by 6 points over Hillary Clinton, nationwide. Although I should point out that that particular poll has had Donald Trump up all along in this race from the very beginning.
All of those daily tracking polls that are showing either tied or Trump pulling ahead, those are all national polls. The thing is we don`t do elections as a nationwide thing. In this country, we do them state to state. That`s how you put together a win or a loss in a presidential election.
So, that is actually where you should be looking in order to see who is more likely to win. The national polls are on interesting snapshot. But if you want to know who will take things on Election Day, you go state to state. How do things look right now state to state?
Joining us now from his magic wall is the great Steve Kornacki, our electoral map guru and the host of "MSNBC LIVE" every day at 4:00.
Steve, thank you so much for being with us. Will you take our mind off the national polling number and give us a look state by state at how things are shaping up right now?
STEVE KORNACKI, HOST, MSNBC LIVE: Yes, sure. We got a whole bunch of brand-new state polls today. So, we can take you through the battle for 270. What we want to focus on right here is sort of what for the Clinton campaign they hope is their ultimate firewall. And what I mean here is if everything else goes wrong for them in the final week of this campaign in the battleground states, in the key states, what is the firewall that they think and they hope will ultimately protect them if it comes to it?
We got new polling on that front today. So, to put this in some perspective, let me first take you through what the doomsday final week would look like for the Clinton campaign. What I mean is this, right now, this is what we have Hillary Clinton in states equaling 272 electoral votes. Look, if she doesn`t drop from that at all, she`s the next president of the United States.
But here`s what they fear and the worst possible case here could go wrong, the Clinton campaign does, and that is that every one of these toss-up states, the gray states on the map, let`s say Donald Trump were to sweep them, run the table, win all the toss-up states here in the final week. Iowa red, we`ve got this congressional district in Nebraska, there`s a congressional district up here in the rural part of Maine.
Let`s say if Trump took Utah, let`s say he took Nevada, these are big ifs, but let`s say he took Arizona. He takes all the toss-up states. What does that do? Clinton still sitting at 270, Trump at 266. Trump would then be one state away from the presidency.
And he would need one additional state. It would have to be a blue state. He`d have to take all the toss-up and then find a blue state. That`s the ultimate firewall the Clinton campaign is looking at. Can they protect the blue state that if it ever came to this, Trump would need to go into and win?
We`ve got new polling on that front today. Pennsylvania, this is one of those blue states that Trump people still think and hope they could flip if it comes to it. We`ve got a bunch of new polls out of Pennsylvania today.
Look at this, four new polls out Pennsylvania. These are all single digits, but Clinton is leading all of them, 2, 4, 4 and 5. This is consistent with what we`ve seen throughout this campaign and really for a generation in American politics now. The Republicans can get close in Pennsylvania but getting over the hump there, still no sign they can do that.
Another big one we look at today, a lot of people were interested in Wisconsin, the gold standard poll came out in Wisconsin today. Remember, Trump was in Wisconsin just last night. Well, look at this. There was a lot of uneasiness among Democrats in the run up to this poll. A lot of sights or relief when it came out, a six-point lead, Hillary Clinton still holding strong in Wisconsin.
Again, this is the kind of state that if Donald Trump, if everything else went right for him in the next week, he`d still need to flip a state like this, no sign of that poll in Wisconsin he`s getting any closer there.
Also think about Michigan. Hillary Clinton is going to be going into Michigan on Friday trying to shore up her campaign spending money on the airwaves there. Again, what do we have here in terms of polling? A seven- point lead for Clinton in that state.
Again, the key here for the Clinton campaign with the numbers we`re seeing a couple others that the Trump supporters are making noise about, New Mexico, Colorado, the key here is the polling we`re getting out of these states still shows Hillary Clinton leading. Sometimes the margin`s a little smaller than the others, but right now all indications are that that ultimate final firewall for the Clinton campaign is still holding.
And remember, they are now spending money, the Clinton campaign is, in a lot of these states and, in fact, as I said, Hillary Clinton herself will be going into Michigan. So, if they come in with a lead in the final week in these states, they spend money, they send Hillary Clinton in, they think if everything else were to fail, that`s the firewall that keeps Trump from 270.
MADDOW: So, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, those are the states that you`re sort of riveted on in terms of this strategy and Clinton shoring up the hardest part of her defense.
KORNACKI: And you could also, I think you can probably add Colorado to that one, too, and maybe New Hampshire. But we got numbers out of those other states today. But even the polls we`re seeing in Colorado and New Hampshire, Clinton still leading by varying degrees in those states as well.
MADDOW: Steve, one other thing I want to ask you about. It`s actually something related to something that happened on this show last night. It`s a specific thing in the polling that people are starting to think might take a dramatic move in the last few days. Can you stick around so I can ask you this other thing?
KORNACKI: Absolutely.
MADDOW: Great. The great Steve Kornacki is with us for my very specific question, when we come back. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BILL WELD, LIBERTARIAN VP CANDIDATE: I have a lot to say about Mrs. Clinton that has not been said by others recently. And that I think needs to be said. I mean, I`ve known her for 40 years. I worked with her, I know her well professionally. I know her well personally. I know her to be a person of high moral character, a reliable person, and an honest person. I`m here vouching for Mrs. Clinton.
And I think it`s high time somebody did, and I`m doing it based on my personal experience with her. And I think she`s deserves to have people vouch for her other than members of the Democratic National Committee, so I`m here to do that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MADDOW: Libertarian Party`s vice presidential nominee, former Republican governor of Massachusetts, Bill Weld, on this show last night making some big news, vouching personally vouching for the Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. Governor Weld last night had nice things to say about Hillary Clinton. He came pretty much as close as he possibly could to endorsing Hillary Clinton last night without actually endorsing her.
Governor Weld did say that when it comes to Donald Trump, he fears for the country if Donald Trump was elected. But his personal opinions about the candidates are one thing. He and Gary Johnson are actually competing in the presidential race.
What`s the effect of that? Especially if he has such strong views about Donald Trump being a threat to the country and Hillary Clinton being a pretty darn good choice?
I mean, Bill Weld didn`t endorse Clinton. He also didn`t drop out of the race. He says that he will be voting for his own ticket for the libertarian ticket on Election Day.
It raises this interesting question. If the libertarians dropped out, if Bill Weld, with or without Gary Johnson, got out of the race between now and Tuesday, would that actually help Hillary Clinton win the presidency? Would it help Trump win the presidency? Can we tell what the effect of that would be at this point?
Some national polls poll in a four-way race. They ask people, would you support the Democrat in the race, the Republican in the race, the libertarian in the race or the Green Party candidate in the race? They poll on Clinton, Trump, Johnson and Stein.
Then, they poll the same people on just the head-to-head race between Clinton and Trump. If you compare the two results, you get from the four- way race versus just the head-to-head, Hillary Clinton on average does slightly better in four-way matchups than she does when it`s head-to-head. Head-to-head her polling average is 1.7 percent lead over Donald Trump, in a four-way race with the third party folks in there, it`s bigger than that, 1.9 percent lead. That suggests the net effect of these third party candidates in the race is a tiny help for Clinton. That maybe those third party candidates are mostly taking votes that would otherwise go to Trump. That`s national polling. Some swing state polling shows the same thing.
The most recent NBC/"Wall Street Journal" poll out of New Hampshire shows Hillary Clinton beating Trump in a head-to-head race by about eight points, but if you ask about a four-way race, add back in Johnson and Stein, Clinton and Trump both drop a little bit but Clinton drops by two points and Trump drops by three, which suggests that the presence of the third party candidates are hurting him more than they`re hurting her. The presence of the third party candidates might actually be helping Hillary Clinton`s chances. That`s in New Hampshire.
You can also see evidence in the opposite direction recently out of Ohio. Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton in head-to-head matchups in Ohio. When you add in the third party candidates, though, Trump goes up a point or so and his average goes up over half a point. Looks like the third party candidates in that case are taking votes from Clinton and when they`re out, it helps Trump.
Also look at yesterday`s ABC/"Washington Post" tracking poll. Donald Trump is a point ahead in a four-way race. When the pollsters ask people who said they wanted to vote for Johnson and Stein, well, if you had to, you couldn`t vote for Johnson and Stein, you had to vote for Clinton or Trump, which would you pick? More of those voters said they`d pick Clinton than pick Trump.
So, if you`re looking for evidence that third party voters are hurting Clinton, you got that there. Those voters are saying they would vote for Clinton if they weren`t voting for a third party candidate. So, there`s evidence in both directions. There`s evidence in both directions in the swing state, there`s evidence in both directions in the national polling. Where does that leave a third party candidate like Bill Weld?
Particularly with what Bill Weld said last night about Hillary Clinton on this show. If the libertarian ticket dropped out or fell apart, if the green party candidates dropped out or fell apart, what would be the effect on the Trump versus Clinton race? Can we tell who would be hurt and who would be helped if something like that happened?
Joining us now once again is my friend Steve Kornacki, host of "MSNBC LIVE" every day here at 4:00.
Steve, is there an answer to this question or is it a mixed bag as it looked to me?
KORNACKI: It`s pretty as muddled as what you showed there. You`re dealing with numbers that are so small in a lot of these cases, with the margin of error factored in. It`s really tough to say one way or the other. And the best way we can say is, it seems to be mostly a wash.
But I think if you`re a Democrat, if you`re a Clinton supporter, there`s two thing have to worry you about the presence of, whether it`s the libertarians or any third party candidate. And the first thing is this. Traditionally, you look at the libertarian, you`d say, well, it`s going to be disgruntled Republicans. It`s somebody who is fiscally conservative who doesn`t like Trump because maybe they think he is too extreme on X or Y, but it`s basically a disgruntled Republican.
MADDOW: Right, their candidates are former Republican governors.
KORNACKI: Right. So, traditionally, you would think, OK, that`s where that`s coming from. But when you start looking at the polls, the biggest resistance, some of the biggest resistance to Clinton and some of the biggest openness to the third party candidates has been voters under 35, millennials. And that`s sort of an extension of what we saw in the primary.
Remember, Hillary Clinton struggled mightily with young voters against Bernie Sanders. But here`s the thing, the evidence we have suggests young voters, millennials, they don`t really like Clinton but they really, really don`t like Trump. So, there`s this dynamic where if they`re offered a third choice or a fourth choice, more than other groups, they`re likely to take the third or the fourth option. Gun to their head, told you`ve got to go with Clinton or you got to go with Trump, the evidence suggests that more of them are ultimately going to go with Clinton than with Trump.
Their level of dissatisfaction with Trump is much higher than it is with Clinton. So, that`s one area where I think if you`re a Democrat, you`re worried about the presence of these candidates. It`s this idea that Donald Trump has a ceiling on his support. The polls fluctuate. But the one thing that`s been constant, Donald Trump does not get up past the mid-40s. Hillary Clinton will get up to the high 40s, even sometimes she`ll cross 50 percent.
I think we can put this up on the screen. What you`re looking right now. Hillary Clinton over the last month, when you match Clinton versus Trump, it`s been about three dozen polls where she`s hit 38 percent or higher. I think it`s 34. Donald Trump the number is zero.
So, that speaks to the possibility that there`s a ceiling for Trump that`s lower than there is for Clinton. If you have just a two-way race, she`s going to beat him in a two-way race. If you have a four-way race, with the Libertarian, the Green Party candidate, are getting three, four, five, six percent each, 44-45 percent for Trump could win that race.
So if you`re a Democrat, I think for those two reasons, you would rather this just be a one on one race.
MADDOW: And I think actually what you`re describing there about the Trump ceiling, that`s been a great source of comfort to Democrats and liberals looking at this race, thinking, well, there aren`t too many persuadable people who are being swayed over to Trump. He will hit that high number, but that, you`re right. Even if that ceiling is exactly where we think it is, that`s enough to win if there`s a significant third party vote.
KORNACKI: Just think of the Republican primaries, he got 45 percent of the vote, it was enough to win the nomination.
MADDOW: If there`s enough people in the race.
Steve Kornacki, clarifying as always. Thanks my friend.
Have you been eating protein? Have you been sleeping?
KORNACKI: I`ve been eating horrible food.
(LAUGHTER)
MADDOW: We`ll get ourselves in shape in the next few days. No, we won`t.
All right. Steve Kornacki, host of "MSNBC LIVE" every day here at 4:00.
We have a lot more ahead tonight. Please stay with us.
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MADDOW: The Republican National Committee today did an unusual thing in federal court in New Jersey. They filed paperwork with a federal court insisting that their own vice presidential nominee had no idea what he was talking about, he was totally wrong, he was totally making it up when he said this.
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GOV. MIKE PENCE (R), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It`s a tremendous question, and I will tell you that the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee are working very, very closely with state governments and secretary of states all over the country to ensure ballot integrity.
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MADDOW: Mike Pence in august telling voters that the Trump campaign and the Republican Party are working all over the country to ensure ballot integrity. Now, Governor Pence said that. He said a few different iterations of that in public, right?
But we`ve been reporting on this show the Republican Party is actually banned by a consent decree from the `80s from doing the kind of ballot integrity stuff that the Trump campaign has been threatening for Election Day, which is basically poll watching, targeting minority voters in swing states.
The RNC is banned by law from doing anything like that even though Mike Pence is insisting that the Trump campaign and the Republican Party are working hand in fist to do it.
Last week, the Democratic Party asked a federal court to find the Republican Party in contempt of that consent decree. They included as evidence what Mike Pence has been telling voters about Republican plans for the election, that the Republican Party is working with the Trump campaign to do this poll watching effort.
Today, the Republican Party had to respond to that challenge in court, and they are dealing with the Mike Pence part of the evidence by saying, eh, you know, Mike Pence, he makes things up.
Chief lawyer for the RNC filed this in federal court today. He said he called Mike Pence personally last night, yesterday evening, quote, "Governor Pence stated to me that he has no knowledge whatsoever of any effort between the Trump campaign and the RNC to ensure ballot integrity. He further states that he neither -- that he neither ever -- neither ever - - neither ever? He neither ever has been a part of nor is aware of any discussions between the Trump campaign and the RNC concerning any efforts to ensure ballot integrity or to suggest any RNC involvement in such activities."
He`s never heard any of that. He has no knowledge whatsoever about it. He just keeps saying what they`re doing. He makes it up every time he says it.
That`s the message from the Republican Party tonight. That`s what their defense is to this lawsuit. Mike Pence makes stuff up. You know him.
So, there`s no problem here. Don`t believe a word he says. Definitely don`t take it as evidence so says the Republican Party.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PENCE: It`s a tremendous question, and I will tell you that the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee are working very, very closely with state governments and secretary of states all over the country to ensure ballot integrity.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
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MADDOW: Hillary Clinton has gone West this evening. She started in Nevada which went for Barack Obama twice in 2008 and 2012. The Clinton campaign has been working like crazy for months now in Nevada. They`re very heartened by the early voting numbers out of that state in particular. After tonight`s Clinton event in Las Vegas, though, she then headed for Arizona.
An Arizona is a whole different thing. Arizona has only gone blue in a presidential election once since World War II, and that was back in the `90s. We`re told that something around 10,000 people have turned out for this Clinton rally tonight in Arizona state with a lot of other people still in line to get in, 10,000 people turning out for Hillary Clinton tonight in Arizona of all places. Arizona?
Stay with us.
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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: All the progress that we`ve made over the last eight years, all the progress we hope to make over the next eight years, all of that goes out the window if we don`t win this election. And we don`t win this election potentially if we don`t win North Carolina. So, I hate to put a little pressure on you, but the fate of the republic rests on your shoulders.
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MADDOW: President Obama today making the hard sell in North Carolina, six days out from the election. A polling average in North Carolina right now shows a dead heat there between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Look at that -- 46.4 to 46.4, in the polling average in that state.
Tonight on the other side of the country, though, Hillary Clinton is going to be giving a speech starting any moment in Tempe, Arizona, of all places. Tonight`s Arizona event, it should be noted it was announced by the Clinton campaign on Friday approximately 30 minutes before FBI Director James Comey decided to jump with both feet into the presidential race. Thirty minutes before the FBI Director James Comey broke protocol and made his vague announcement about new Clinton-related e-mails found on Anthony Weiner`s computer. Thirty minutes before then, they had announced this Arizona event.
Since that Comey letter was published on Friday, there has been a shift in the national polling, there has been a shift in Arizona`s pollings and projections. The latest CNN/ORC poll out of Arizona shows Donald Trump leading in that state now by 5 points. "The New York Times" giving Donald Trump a 66 percent chance of winning Arizona. FiveThirtyEight.com putting his chances of winning Arizona at 68 percent.
And even with the numbers slipping against her, today we learned the Clinton campaign not only kept up this plan for this Tempe, Arizona rally tonight, they`re also doubling their ad spending in Arizona over the final week of the campaign, spending over a million dollars in Arizona in these last few days.
Even just a week ago when the race felt like it was going to be a Clinton blowout, the idea of Clinton trying to win states like Arizona or even Texas or Georgia seemed like it would be a really interesting feather in Hillary Clinton`s cap. But now, the race has tightened. I just threw my script on the floor. What does that mean?
Now the race has tightened. Now you have to wonder if it does make sense for time and money and the candidate`s attention to be focused on Arizona rather than some of those other blue states that Steve Kornacki was describing earlier this hour as essentially Clinton`s great blue wall.
Joining us from the site of the Clinton rally tonight in Tempe, Arizona, is Brahm Resnik. He`s a political reporter and anchor for the NBC affiliate there, KPNX.
Brahm, it`s really great to have you there. Thanks for joining us tonight.
BRAHM RESNIK, KPNX POLITICAL REPORTER & ANCHOR: Thanks for having me.
MADDOW: What is your assessment of the political wisdom of these resources, including the candidate`s time being devoted to Arizona right now? Are they right to think that Arizona is in reach for the Democrats?
RESNIK: It`s really hard to say. I think you got it just right. As of Friday when they had all these plans in place, when they had the ad spending plan in place, they`ve been hitting the state really hard over the last two weeks since the lewd comments that Donald Trump made. That`s what brought this race into the dead heat.
But in the last four days or so, it`s slowly been sliding away, slipping away from her you. You saw the two polls in the last two days that showed Donald Trump up four or five points.
You could argue it`s the law of electoral gravity here in Arizona. Republicans just outnumber Democrats. And more of them come out to vote. That could be part of it. It could be independents moving away. It`s really hard to say.
At the same time, what I hear from the Democrats is why not swing for the fences? They have a base that is energized right now like really never before in Arizona. They feel it`s within their grasp. But at the same time, Rachel, I have to say they`re being pretty realistic about their chances here.
MADDOW: Brahm, one of the things that we noticed from the Clinton campaign is that their vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine is scheduled to do two events in Arizona tomorrow. I think at least one of them if not both are events that he is going to do totally in Spanish. He is fluent in Spanish.
How much are the campaigns both counting on and accurately assessing what the Latino vote is going to be in Arizona?
RESNIK: The presidential race in Arizona, the race for Maricopa County sheriff, Joe Arpaio`s job is on the line there. Several other races all depend on the Latino vote. There has been a huge registration drive this year, one of the largest we`ve seen here ever in fact. And the feeling is if they can turn those voters out, they have a shot at winning this thing.
One thing to watch: if Joe Arpaio wins Maricopa County and the polls right now show him down, if he wins Maricopa County, Hillary Clinton is not winning Arizona.
So, getting back to Tim Kaine. He is doing one speech entirely in Spanish tomorrow morning, in -- tomorrow afternoon I should say, in a neighborhood of heavily Hispanic neighborhood of west Phoenix. Also speaking to the two Latino stations here in town. He`ll be going to Tucson later in the day. That speech will be given in English.
But, again, it is a sign of how important the Latino vote is in this campaign. It must maximize it. And I think you`re going hear that tonight from Secretary Clinton.
MADDOW: Brahm Resnik, political reporter for KPNX in Tempe, Arizona, invaluable to have you here with us tonight, Brahm. Thank you so much. Enjoy tonight. It should be fun.
RESNIK: Thank you.
MADDOW: All right. We`ll be right back. Stay with us.
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MADDOW: I`m sorry I have to do this, but I mentioned at the top of the show tonight that tonight`s U.S. Senate debate in Louisiana featured six candidates on stage, and one of them was the former Ku Klux Klan grand wizard David Duke who is running for the U.S. Senate in Louisiana this year as a Republican candidate.
Now, obviously, even just David Duke`s presence on that stage has been controversial, even his presence in that debate, his invitation to that debate, as somebody polling well enough to be there. That led to protests tonight at the site of the debate. But all that was before he used that debate stage tonight to share with us his David Duke views of the Jews.
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DAVID DUKE (R), LOUISIANA SENATE CANDIDATE: I`m not opposed to all Jews. I think there are a lot of Jews I honor. But let me tell you about something. I`m against Jews or anybody else who puts the interests of some other place over our own country.
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MADDOW: Not opposed to all Jews. Something said, actually said in a Senate debate stage in the year 2016.
Today`s Louisiana Senate debate took place in an empty auditorium at a historically black college called Dillard University in New Orleans. Students at Dillard protested. There aren`t arrests. Some people were reportedly pepper sprayed by university police as they tried to protest outside the debate hall.
But inside, David Duke assured us all he is not against all Jews. Happy 2016.
That does it for us tonight. We will see you again tomorrow.
Now, it`s time for "THE LAST WORD WITH LAWRENCE O`DONNELL."
Good evening, Lawrence.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. END