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MTP Daily, Transcript 11/7/2016

Guests: Tom Brokaw, Heather McGhee, Steve Schmidt, Glenn Kessler, Tom Brokaw, Steve Schmidt, Heather McGhee

Show: MTP DAILY Date: November 7, 2016 Guest: Tom Brokaw, Heather McGhee, Steve Schmidt, Glenn Kessler, Tom Brokaw, Steve Schmidt, Heather McGhee

CHUCK TODD, MSNBC HOST: Yes, it`s Monday. Tomorrow is Election Day. Good evening and welcome to this special election eve edition of MTP DAILY. Just like Christmas Eve. You`re not sure. Can you open up packages yet? Well, we`ve got some packages to open up. We just can`t open all of them. That`s Tomorrow.

I`m Chuck Todd. I`m here at NBC`s election headquarters right here in New York City. Twenty-four hours from now, in fact from this very hour, we will see our first exit poll results in this election.

So, for one more day, let`s preview some things. Clinton and Trump are spending their final full day of this campaign with a combined nine stops a cross five states. Both of them are making multiple stops in some states. Take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Tomorrow is going to be a very historic day. I really believe that. I think it`s going to show -- I think it`s going to be a Brexit plus plus plus.

HILLARY TRUMP (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This election is basically between division and unity in our country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TODD: And tonight, Americans watching network prime time television will see Hillary Clinton make her closing argument directly candidate to camera in a two-minute spot.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: I think we can all agree, it`s been a long campaign. But tomorrow, you get to pick our next president. So, here are a few things that I hope you`ll think about. First, it`s not just my name and my opponent`s name on the ballot. It`s the kind of country we want for our children and grandchildren.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TODD: Meanwhile, "The New York Times" is reporting from inside a bit of an anxiety ridden campaign that aides eagerly and somewhat haphazardly searching for any remaining path to victory.

So, here`s the thing about the map right now. For the most part, cycle after cycle, at least in the 21st century, blue states have stayed relatively stay blue and red states remain in Republican hands. But at the same time, one particular region has changed in a substantial way in the last decade. The east coast from Virginia down to Florida, a string of states with a history of being flipped before.

Let`s start in 1956. Democrats had a firm hold on this region for generations. Just take a look at the election results from 1956. An Eisenhower landslide. But look at this, the south and, you saw here, three of those five states from Virginia down to Florida in Democratic hands.

Then you saw here, this is the 1964 Johnson landslide. And it`s the first time when Republicans got control of the south and really didn`t let it go for more than a generation, except for, you know, a single state here or there when Democratic southerners, like Carter or Clinton, were running.

But it`s essentially a pattern that held until the last time a Republican won the White House. In fact, look at this. This is the Bush 2004 map. And I want to pay particular attention here, when you look at -- excuse me, Virginia down to Florida. Red, red, red, red, red.

That all changed four years later when Barack Obama showed that he could start to make inroads here. Three of the five blue. He held onto two of those three -- he held onto two of those three four years later. He ended up losing North Carolina. But he had three of those. Georgia was relatively competitive and even South Carolina with single digits.

Now, let me take you to the map today. And there is a real possibility, it`s a -- it`s an outside chance here, if Clinton runs up the score, that she could turn four of the five blue. And don`t be shocked if it takes us a while to call South Carolina.

These trends have been happening down here and faster on behalf of Democrats. Some of it, there`s sort of two things that have happened. Number one, you have nonnative whites moving into the region from the north to the south. That`s one.

And two, it`s been a rising Hispanic population coupled with a traditional African-American population that has given Democrats a coalition to win three of these states in a semi-consistent fashion in the last 12 -- the last three cycles and even start thinking about putting Georgia in play.

Now, what`s not happened and what I think many people thought, that perhaps Trump could do, and we`ll see tomorrow if that is, if the northern tier states sort of see a flip. Sort of the demographic reverse of what`s happening down south. Republicans, if they can turn this blue wall into being more competitive, or perhaps red, that`s Michigan, of course.

You know, there`s not a lot of Latino population up here. Some of the college educated whites have migrated down south. This should be prime territory. But the Republican Party arguably may wake up on Wednesday morning and say, did we wait too soon in Michigan? Did we wait too soon and did we -- should we have contested Wisconsin more? And even the T here in Pennsylvania. Should we have spent more time focusing on that?

[17:05:00] Anyway, it`s something to watch here. This southeast expansion by Democrats has not been matched by Republicans who need to be working on this northern tier to make up for lost ground down south.

Now, let`s check in with the campaigns. We`ll go to the road warriors. They`re on the trail. Katy Tur is in Manchester, New Hampshire covering the Trump campaign. And Kasie Hunt`s in Allendale, Michigan traveling with the Clinton campaign.

So, Katy, let me start with you. New Hampshire, there`s a lot of signs today and over the weekend that look like this was neck and neck race. Then the big UNH poll came out today showing a wider than expected Clinton lead. How does it feel on the ground?

KATY TUR, MSNBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, certainly a lot of people out here are excited for the prospect of Donald Trump coming. There are already lines snaking around the Verizon Center which is just across the road of supporters who are lining up to get in.

This is a state that Republican operatives say could potentially go for Donald Trump but they`re still not entirely sure. They`re internals have showed a very tight race up until a few days ago. Donald Trump polling alongside Kelly Ayotte in this state.

But they`re still not entirely sure that he`s going to be able to push it over with independents who maybe were not fans of Donald Trump earlier on. They said that this -- the FBI revival of the investigation certainly helped things. It helped get Republicans to come home to Donald Trump.

And they`re not so sure about the closing of it, or however you want to describe it, from FBI James Comey yesterday will do anything to change that.

New Hampshire is very much a toss-up and it remains that way. You were talking about the upper Midwest, Chuck. And I can tell you that the Trump campaign says that they see a real opportunity there, especially with their jobs message. They believe, or at least they`re telling us this, that it cuts across all demographics. That`s why they`ve spent more time lately in Michigan. There`s a large African-American population in Michigan though.

TODD: Yes.

TUR: And that`s one that could potentially stop Donald Trump from turning that blue state red.

TODD: Yes.

TUR: The campaign says that their jobs` message will cut through that. But he hasn`t done a lot of African-American outreach. And we`re going to find out of just saying it on the trail turns into votes tomorrow.

TODD: Well, never mind that. You have to actually -- he`s going to wish he had spent more time in this state. But you know what? Let`s check in on that state, Kasie Hunt. Katy, thanks very much. Kasie, you`re a Michigander yourself. You`re in Michigan. You`ve been -- you and the whole Michigan crew in my world I feel like (INAUDIBLE) our buddy, Donte Chinni, you, you`ve all been saying, watch out for Michigan. Michael Moore`s been talking about it.

But it took the Trump campaign a while to figure it out. They`re there and something`s afoot.

KASIE HUNT, MSNBC NEWS REPORTER: Yes, Chuck, I think you`re exactly right about that. And when you talk to Democrats, they`ll say, we don`t really understand why Donald Trump didn`t go into Michigan earlier in a major way. That they think that it was probably more likely that he could have flipped this state than he would have been able to flip Pennsylvania.

And, obviously, they -- the Trump campaign spent a ton of time in Pennsylvania and much less time and money here in Michigan.

But I think, you know, the Clinton campaign is still confident, I will say. It has landed farther up the battleground list for sure. I would say even ahead, perhaps, of Virginia and Colorado, as far as likelihood that Clinton will win it, meaning that it`s more competitive in those two places.

I do think, though, they still seem to be pretty confident across the board that they`re going to win here. I think this was probably -- today`s visit was mostly about preventing a surprise and making sure that she is seen being out there talking to groups of people in the state, other than just the African-American population in the Detroit area.

They focus very heavily on that, obviously. But here, the town where we are, is just outside of Grand Rapids which is actually, you know, one of the more conservative places --

TODD: Right.

HUNT: -- in western Michigan. But, you know, the crowd here less diverse than, you know, if we were to go and do an event with her in Detroit. And the message very focused on, hey, I used to represent upstate New York in the Senate. I understand what your issues are. It`s pretty clear they feel a need to communicate that in the last day here.

TODD: Well, but you`re also in Gerald Ford Republican Party country. And the Gerald Ford wing of the Republican Party --

HUNT: We landed at the Gerald Ford Airport.

TODD: That`s right.

HUNT: In fact, that`s true.

TODD: And the -- that Gerald Ford wing of the party not so into Trump. That`s another reason why, I think, Clinton is there. I think they see --

HUNT: Yes.

TODD: -- better numbers for them, surprisingly, in a long-time traditional Grand Rapids.

Anyway, Kasie Hunt, thanks very much.

HUNT: Yes.

TODD: Let me bring in our panel here. NBC News Special Correspondent Tom Brokaw. Heather McGhee, President of the progressive think tank, Demos, and Steve Schmitt, Republican Strategist and NBC Political Analyst.

Tom, let me start with you on this. This sort of -- it is interesting, to me, to watch -- when we see -- the map changes over time. And, you know, it`s a gradual change when it does.

But, you know, we`ve known this demographic change that was taken place in the norther tier of this country for over a decade now. And the Democratic Party has not figured out how to crack that code, while the Democratic Party has cracked the code in the new south.

[17:10:10] TOM BROKAW, SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT, NBC NEWS: Well, you know, what`s interesting to me in watching what`s going on in Michigan very late, is it tells you, I think, and I`m interested to see (INAUDIBLE) just how unsettled the electorate is. I mean, they are changing from week to week and for months and months. They`re not in love with either one of them in a lot of ways.

So, you see this dynamic going on. And, you know, what the Republicans have to figure out is how they not only do well in the northern states, but how they do well with the next generation. And Michigan is a dynamic place with Ann Arbor and Michigan State.

TODD: Right.

BROKAW: But it`s also got that god-awful collapse in Detroit and other places. So, you`ve got a yin and a yang going on. And I think it`s a tough state to figure out for them.

TODD: Well, you know, and it`s interesting, Heather. If you`re the Democrats, you want to -- you`re happy that the -- where you`re potentially making gains in red states are in the growing states.

HEATHER MCGHEE, PRESIDENT, DEMOS: Yes.

TODD: The states where the population are growing. And, obviously, where Democrats are starting to see some potential fraying of their coalition up north are in states that are shrinking. That`s long-term positive for Democrats. But it`s still got to be a concern now.

MCGHEE: Right. But there`s easy ground to make up there. I mean, one of the reasons why Donald Trump is being successful at all there is because of his message on trade which, traditionally, is a Democratic message.

So, in so many ways, absent the racism, Donald Trump`s message is one that, carried by a populist Democrat, could actually, sort of, regain the white working class to the Democratic Party.

So, I don`t think this is a long-term realignment. I don`t think you`re going to continue to see so many Republican candidates breaking with the Republican economic orthodoxy in the donor class. It`s just not going to happen.

TODD: Well, it`s interesting. And I wanted to have that debate later about if we`re going to have a long -- I think we are headed for long-term realignment. But that`s a separate conversation.

What took Trump so long to get to Michigan?

STEVE SCHMIDT, POLITICAL ANALYST, NBC NEWS: They don`t have a functioning campaign so they weren`t on top of it. They didn`t see where the opportunities were. Look, a very famous anecdote from earlier in the campaign, Karl Rove going to see Trump. You know, and Karl Rove saying it`s crazy.

Don`t campaign in California and New York. You have no chance there. Trump going out the next day after his meeting with Rove saying, I can`t wait to campaign in California and New York.

TODD: Almost (INAUDIBLE.)

(CROSSTALK)

SCHMIDT: Right, it wasn`t -- it just wasn`t reality based.

TODD: But look at -- why -- what has taken the Republican Party, in general, so long to figure out how to crack this northern code -- the norther tier states in presidential years? You know, look, there`s Republican governors in Wisconsin, in Michigan.

You know, it`s not -- and you`ve elected them in Illinois and you`ve certainly elected them in Iowa. But in the presidential years, I remember you guys made an effort in Minnesota and Michigan, but it didn`t -- it didn`t last.

SCHMIDT: Look, I think this is the second of four really consequential global elections. The next will be the French and the German. And we`re seeing this play out globally. Politics has been defined in our lifetimes down the 50 yard line. We debate right and left between the 45s.

But, increasingly, I think what you will see is a lateral line, a horizontal line. Above that line are the people who benefitted from the technological revolution, benefitted from globalization.

And below it are the people who have been left behind. And I think that`s going to be the new fault line in American politics. And the voters, the Bernie Sanders voter and the Trump voter like fish netting. The fish can swim through the fish netting --

TODD: Yes.

SCHMIDT: -- from left to right very, very easily --

TODD: We had the --

SCHMIDT: -- on these --

TODD: -- this is what I was getting at here. Now, we`re going to realign the party now. I just thought we were going to have this conversation later in the show.

SCHMIDT: But that`s what`s happening.

TODD: That -- I mean, can the Democratic Party -- what`s interesting here is the Democratic Party -- because you`re right. A populist Democrat could have that message. But you`re the Democratic Party that is split no different than the Republican Party on trade now.

MCGHEE: I think that the Democratic elected officials are split on trade. I think that the heart of the Democratic Party, both who funds those campaigns, right, which are labor unions and the base which is African- Americans, young people who have said that the entire trickle down experiment has left them to be the first generation not to be better off than their parents. And African-Americans who -- you know, you say the mess in Detroit. Those used to be strong working -- middle-class manufacturing jobs.

So, if you look at the pocketbook issues, the entire Democratic base, both yesterday and tomorrow, instead of what`s growing, has an economic ideology that`s quite populist.

TODD: Tom, I know you --

BROKAW: (INAUDIBLE) anything. I was just thinking about it in Wisconsin, for example. Scott Walker was successful by going right at the unions. And the unions in the northern states that the Democrats have controlled for a long time are not nearly as potent as they once were, especially in presidential election years. You have to remember that as well.

There is just the UAW and all the other unions that were so prominent in those northern tier of states for the Democrats. They don`t have the cloud (ph) anymore. So, it`s -- it is odd that the Republicans didn`t take, for example, both the Michigan and Scott Walker line and go right at them. And they just didn`t do it.

[17:15:05] TODD: I`m curious -- let me play off of Steve`s -- and what you think of this Heather because I -- and Tom, because I sort of share this I feel. Europe went -- Europe`s gone -- already went here.

And, you know, part of it is that the social issues are done in Europe. They`re not fighting social issues anymore. I think we`re almost done in the dark culture wars. It feels like we`re coming to an end.

Do you -- can the -- can the Democratic Party continue to have this tension of, sort of, a wealthy wing of its party, the college educated wing of its party and a working class that`s diverse.

But, essentially, I feel like the Democratic Party is going to have to watch itself grow the way the Republican Party did which it had, sort of, the business wing and its working class wing and they clashed on economics. Isn`t this going to be a clash soon inside the Democratic Party?

MCGHEE: I think it already has been. I mean, honestly, you know, our primary in the Democratic Party was one where you really did begin to see that.

TODD: Yes.

MCGHEE: Fortunately, and I think this is where there is a silver line for the Democrats, that`s different than what`s happening in Europe or what`s happening in -- with Republicans, is that the basic framework of, you know, slightly higher taxes on the wealthy, closing corporate loopholes, debt- free college, stronger labor market regulations, climate change legislation, child care, paid family leave.

These are things that actually -- you know, slightly wealthier suburban folks and working class folks who are struggling to make ends meet all agree on. It`s not quite as ideological.

TODD: Can the Republican Party create that kind of messaging where they can unite their (INAUDIBLE)?

SCHMIDT: Let`s look at the Silicon Valley wing of the Democratic Party and be clear about the partisan nature of all of these companies.

TODD: Yes.

SCHMIDT: The number one job for non-college educated white men in America is driving something somewhere. So, when we talk about an hour of driverless trucks, driverless cars, where do those jobs go? Where is that displacement? We have these arguments about minimum wage, $12.00, $15.00. We`re 18 months away in this country from a robot leaning out the window at the McDonalds to hand you your cheese burger.

We`re not having the political discussion about artificial intelligence, about robotics, about automation, about the profound displacements now that are going to come to what`s left on the high-paying blue collar jobs in this country.

And as you look at a retiree class coming down from New York and New Jersey, Horry County, South Carolina changing the nature of that state ideologically, think of all of these issues that have defined politics over the last generation, we`re at a moment now where you`re seeing the cracks begin to open up that will define us for the next generation. And it`s a very new coalition.

BROKAW: I really agree with Steve. I think that this election is about fracturing the country politically in so many ways. And his example, for example, about Silicon Valley is a pitch perfect example.

I was out in southern Ohio a few years ago where they were trying to reframe workers to work in the new digital age. The 27-year-old electrician who was in housing construction and that job went south when the recession hit. He can handle it. I saw two guys who had been forklift operators in a warehouse, they were sweating bullets as they were trying to learn it. It was clear they were never going to get there.

Now, we`ve got, as well, a mass coming up. And it`s across color lines and across other kinds of lines of young people who don`t believe in the institutions that we`ve all grown up with. And they`ve got an entirely different attitude.

TODD: Yes.

BROKAW: So, this has been an unusual election in a lot of ways, but mostly about how it has completely fractured the political -- the makeup of the political constituencies that we`ve all grown up with.

TODD: I`m going to put a pause here. But if anybody takes anything away from this -- and I want everybody that had this -- I think we`re all in agreement, this feels like one of those elections that we`ll look back on and say, oh, that`s when the red-blue map began to change again.

BROKAW: Yes.

TODD: It feels like we`re doing that and that`s when the coalitions in both parties started to change again. If it is, indeed, just two parties.

Let me put a pause here. You guys are sticking around.

Coming up, we`re looking ahead to Tuesday night still, not just 20 years from now. And we`ll preview what to watch for as results roll in hour by hour. And we`ll, of course, have the final tally of the early vote across the country as well. When will it hit 50 million? Stay tuned.

[17:19:27]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TODD: Tomorrow is the official traditional first Tuesday after the first Monday Election Day. But as of today, more than 43 million people have cast ballots early.

Of course, we don`t yet know who these folks voted for but here`s what we think we know about who voted. According to data from NBC news and Target Smart, Democratic early voters outpaced Republicans 43 to 39 percent. A majority of early voters were over the age of 45.

And more women have voted than men by a big number, 55-44. Not just the typical more women vote than men. It`ll probably be 53-47. But if that`s closer to 54-46, Republicans better be pressing a panic button.

We`ll be back in 60 seconds with more MTP DAILY.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TODD: Welcome back. We`ve been taking -- we`ve been talking throughout this campaign about the great American divide. And now, more than ever before, demographics appear to be destiny, at least for this cycle.

We showed you earlier in the show how demographics are changing, how the entire southeast votes differently now than it did even just 15 years ago. But these changes are not just on regional lines. The fault lines are deepening along educational, racial and income lines as well.

And that means, as tomorrow night`s results are coming in, we`re going to be closely watching the results in particular counties to answer some critical questions. Number one, can Trump win in educated and wealthier Republicans? Number two, will African-American voters turn out at numbers at least near to Obama levels?

Number three, how big is the surge in Hispanic voters? Number four, will college students show up? And, finally, number five, will Trump`s blue collar appeal bring out some hidden voters?

So, let`s bring out our data guru, Dante Chinni. He studies demographics and has been out in the battleground states throughout this election year gathering data. He`s also a columnist with our polling partner, "The Wallstreet Journal," and has got some fellowship work coming up at a couple of interesting universities pretty soon.

So, Dante, let`s dig right in. You are mister county. So, you want to start here. We`re going to start with your first question. The Republican margins. We`re going to start in Delaware County. Tell me a little bit about Delaware County.

DANTE CHINNI, MSNBC NEWS DATA REPORTER: So, Delaware County, Ohio is a reliably Republican county. Mitt Romney won this county by 23 points.

TODD: Just outside of Columbus.

CHINNI: Just north.

TODD: It`s north of Franklin County which is going to be a now Clinton county.

CHINNI: Yes.

TODD: We don`t know by how much.

CHINNI: Yes.

TODD: It may be by a lot.

CHINNI: That`s going to be a good question, too.

[17:25:00] But the really interesting thing there is I was there this summer where a Republican county headquarters in Delaware County did not have a Trump sign in the window when I was there. And when I went in and asked where the Trump signs were, I was told they were in the back.

TODD: If Clinton wins Ohio, it would mean what in Delaware County? That she lost it by no less than single digits?

CHINNI: Yes, I think if you see that get down to single digits, that`s trouble for Donald Trump. Very good news for Hillary Clinton.

TODD: All right, let`s talk about the African-American vote. So, we might as well go with Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania which, of course, is Philadelphia. Walk me through.

CHINNI: So, Philadelphia is -- it`s where the Democrats drive up big margins that offset the rest of the state. And if you look at what`s happened there since 2000, there are a lot more votes coming out of Philadelphia than there were in 2000.

TODD: It`s a growing city.

CHINNI: It is. It still is. It`s a growing city. But even the growth there doesn`t account for the increase in votes and margin that come out of there for Democrats.

So, you know, for them, the question is, they can`t see the numbers fall back to 2000 levels. They need them closer to -- closer to the 2012 votes.

TODD: So, Barack Obama almost won by 500,000.

CHINNI: Yes. OK, Philadelphia in 2012.

TODD: An unbelievable number.

CHINNI: Unreal, yes.

TODD: What is a winning number for Clinton and what is an oh no number for her? Is it 350? Is that the margin here?

CHINNI: Well, I -- so, (INAUDIBLE) right? So, yes, 350 I think they`d feel pretty good because of this other problem -- well, look, --

TODD: (INAUDIBLE) suburbs.

CHINNI: Exactly. The vote is -- educated white voters.

TODD: But that`s the minimum. If it`s -- dips below 350, --

CHINNI: Yes, I think it`s time to get worried.

TODD: Time for them to get worried for them.

CHINNI: Yes, yes.

TODD: All right, let`s move to Miami-Dade County.

CHINNI: Yes.

TODD: This is a county in my home town. It`s in Florida. We know Clinton is going to carry it.

CHINNI: Yes.

TODD: This is another one of the margin test counties and a test for Hispanic voters.

CHINNI: Yes, yes. And it`s actually interesting. This is one of the counties in American, you know, Obama had a great 2008. He won again in 2012 but not for the same margins. But Miami-Dade won it by more. It turned out more votes. It was better for Obama in 2012 than it was for 2008.

The early vote numbers out of Florida suggest that`s going to be true again. So, if you`re up above what he got, in terms of numbers in 2012, you`re probably going to be up above margin and that`s a real concern, I think, for Republicans.

TODD: All right, let`s talk about the youth vote, millennial vote.

CHINNI: Yes.

TODD: Dane County, Wisconsin as good as any.

CHINNI: Yes.

TODD: This is Madison.

CHINNI: Yes.

TODD: I can remember, if you are a Democrat and you would just like to hold a rally for 30,000 people, this is the easiest county to go to. John Kerry has had 30,000 and 50,000 rallies. I think Obama has. Bernie Sanders did, et cetera. This is where the young vote comes from and what should we look for?

CHINNI: Interesting. You know, Bernie Sanders did very well there. He did. So, the question is -- this is -- it`s a growing county, too. She needs to get, I think, the numbers that Obama got out of this, just in terms of raw numbers because it`s gotten bigger.

She needs to hold onto the numbers, hold onto the margins that Obama got there. And if she does, that`s probably going to help her a lot.

TODD: There were more than 300,000 voters in Dane County -- in Dane County in 2012.

CHINNI: Yes.

TODD: She has to hope that it`s a bigger turnout.

CHINNI: I would think -- I think she at least wants 300,000. If -- she would feel good if it`s, you know, 310,000 or 320,000.

TODD: All right, and the best test of the new Trump voter, if it does exist -- if there is a coalition that he is putting together that it is a winning coalition. Macomb County, Michigan --

CHINNI: Yes.

TODD: -- famous for the so-called Reagan Democrat. What are we looking at here margin wise?

CHINNI: So, this is a county that Obama won in 2012. If -- the numbers show that Trump is winning here by enormous margins, by double-digits margins. So, Trump needs to win here and I think it needs to be above double-digits for him to have any shot, really, in Pennsylvania.

TODD: All right, it`s sister county, if you want to call it that. It`s next door to Oakland County. As you like to say, --

CHINNI: Yes.

TODD: -- the auto workers live in Macomb, --

CHINNI: Yes.

TODD: -- though their bosses --

CHINNI: The executives live in Oakland.

TODD: -- live in Oakland.

CHINNI: Yes, that`s the story.

TODD: Oakland -- does Trump have a shot at carrying Oakland or is this going to be a Clinton county?

CHINNI: I think that`s what`s interesting. So, this is going to be -- the old flip used to be Democrats win Detroit. They hope to carry Macomb and then they lose Oakland but keep it close.

TODD: Right.

CHINNI: That`s not the case anymore. They win Detroit by a lot. They`re going to win Oakland. I think she`s going to win Oakland. And they`re going to lose Macomb. This is a sign of how the party -- the Democratic Party has changed. Blue collar whites have left the party. This is the -- this is the ultimate culmination of the Reagan Democrats ascendancy in the GOP.

TODD: And Democrats are OK with that as long as they get college educated white in return to their coalition.

CHINNI: Yes.

TODD: The question is, what are they going to do?

CHINNI: Yes, Oakland County. And I also think you noted very -- that was a good point, Grand Rapids, the western side of the state. Trump is not doing as well there as a Republican should.

TODD: No. Clinton may carry a county that no Democrat has carried in a very long time out in that part of the state.

CHINNI: It`s completely possible. She could carry Kent, though. Obama did carry it. But look at Ottawa.

TODD: Yes.

CHINNI: There are some counties out there that will be interesting to watch.

TODD: All right. Michigander Dante Chinni. As you know, I name dropped you earlier. (INAUDIBLE.) All on us about Michigan. And you`ve finally been proven, we think.

CHINNI: We think.

TODD: We don`t know it. All right.

Still ahead, this is also been known as the post truth election. We`ll recap some of the biggest whoppers from both candidates. But the score on that count, well, it`s not really even. Stay tuned.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CHUCK TODD, MEET THE PRESS DAILY HOST: Welcome back. Yesterday`s announcement from the FBI Director James Comey that the bureau would not change its conclusions on the Clinton e-mail case did move one poll, the stock market.

Dow futures were up more than 200 points in early trading on Sunday following the announcement. Then today, the market snapped an eight-day losing streak recovering the losses it suffered starting on October 28th.

Why does that day matter? That`s the day that Comey made the original FBI announcement that he was looking at new e-mails that might be pertinent to the Clinton e-mail case. What`s more, the volatility index which experts use to measure fear in the markets has already dropped 17 percent, a sign of stability.

In other words, the markets reacted negatively to bad news for Hillary Clinton and positively to good news for her. For the rest of today`s financial headlines, here`s Josh Lipton with the CNBC Market Wrap.

JOSH LIPTON, CNBC TECHNOLOGY CORRESPONDENT: That`s right, Chuck. They are calling it the Hilla rally. The Dow jumping 371 points, it`s more than 2 percent. The S&P climbs 46, gaining back some ground after a nine-day losing streak. Nasdaq finishes up 119.

Crude closed higher following Sunday`s earthquake near the Cushing, Oklahoma oil storage hub. Oil rose about 2% after six straight losing sessions and priceline.com shares surging after hours, company reporting revenue and earnings that beat estimates. That`s it from CNBC, first in business worldwide.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TODD: Welcome back. We`re on the final day of what unfortunately we started calling the post-truth election throughout this campaign. Fact checkers views their proverbial reading to ding candidates for stretching and sometimes simply snapping the truth and totally breaking it. And almost everyday on the trail, we were greeted with some absurd and ridiculous claims.

Washington Post Glenn Kessler is one of those fact checkers and he recently compiled his biggest Pinocchio of the cycle. Washington Post of course uses Pinocchio as the point out when candidates are lying. Four Pinocchio is the highest level of city. Hillary Clinton racked up four Pinocchio seven times along her run for the White House. Most of them had to do with the private e-mail server.

(START VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON, DEMOCRATIC PARTY NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Let`s start from the beginning. Everything I did was permitted. There was no law. There was no regulation.

I`m confident that this process will prove that I never sent nor received any -- any e-mail that was marked classified.

Director Comey said that my answers were truthful and what I said is consistent with what I have told the American people.

TODD: You can see those evolvings there. Donald Trump picked up four Pinocchio rating 59 times. That`s more than all the republicans combined in the last three years. Here are just a few.

DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN PARTY NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I watched in Jersey City, New Jersey where thousands and thousands of people were cheering as that building was coming down.

If we competitively bid drugs in the United States, we could save as much as $300 billion a year.

You know who started it and who questioned his birth certificate? Hillary Clinton. She is the one who started it.

Right now, 92 million Americans are on the sideline outside of the workforce. They are not a part of our economy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TODD: Glenn Kessler joins me now. I think he is hoping that maybe by being here, he doesn`t have to hear another stump speech and have to write up another fact check. Glenn, look, we called -- I don`t know -- a bunch of us had been labeling this the post-truth election and yet at the same time the yearning for fact checkers has never been higher either among the populous.

What explains this? On one hand, we have more and more demand for fact checking. On the other hand, it seems as if the candidates are being punished by voters for lying.

GLENN KESSLER, JOURNALIST, AUTHOR, WASHINGTON POST FACT CHECKER: Well, let`s see what happens with the election results tomorrow. Certainly there has been a huge demand for fact checking. I think traffic through "The Washington Post" fact checker website is five times higher than in 2012.

So and I think readers want and are demanding information to find out if the candidates are saying the truth. You know, you were just talking recently about just a few minutes about how Donald Trump was doing poorly with college-educated voters.

TODD: Yeah.

KESSLER: And I thing that might be a consequence of the fact that he is not doing well with the fact checkers.

TODD: Right.

KESSLER: College-educated voters, you know, respond to these fact checks and are quite interested to see how the candidate is doing in terms of the truth.

TODD: You know, the biggest challenge going forward for candidates when they speak and for all of us in the media and certainly for you as sort of one of the leading fact checkers is the fact that there are so many fake news sites now and even some of them are not necessarily fake, but sort of blogging sites or Facebook posts that look like they are somehow a news article or factually correct.

This is being passed on as factual information. How much of an extra challenge did you -- let me ask it this way, Glenn. How many times did you see where the fact that they got wrong, particularly in Trump. Had it source from one of these basically untruthful blog posts that looked like a news article?

KESSLER: It happened a fair amount. In fact, there were times when Trump would cite internet websites as the source of his information and I have to say there are other politicians to have done it as well. You didn`t see it from the professional politicians, the real professional politicians like Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush or John Kasich.

They tend to rely on reliable sources. But certainly the candidates like Trump or Ben Carson who were not professional politicians, they got some of their information from some pretty sketchy websites.

TODD: Do you think your job should evolve to fact checking some of these sources?

KESSLER: Well, when a politician cites them, we then go and look into it and examine where they got their information. You know, there is a pretty good website that has been around for a long time called Snopes...

TODD: Right.

KESSLER: ... and they change a lot of these internet rumors and do a very good job at it.

TODD: Is this something that Facebook -- is this just -- is this something that is gonna become a virus or already is a virus on social media and Snopes can`t even keep up anymore?

KESSLER: It`s possible. Facebook is going to have to look very hard after this election to see what they can do to try to, you know, make it more difficult for those things to easily populate. Google has just recently, you know, has started to elevate fact checks as part of the its web searches. So, that`s a step in the right direction.

TODD: All right. Glenn Kessler. I have a feeling after a successful year for you and a lot of fact checkers, it is only going to mean demand is more and sadly I think the misstatements will come at you fast and furious even after the campaign. Glenn, congrats on a great year.

KESSLER: Thank you. You`re right.

TODD: If you have been watching MSNBC, you are familiar with the election music. Probably very, very familiar. Up next, why I`m obsessed with election night sound tracks.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TODD: Welcome back. Tonight, I`m obsessed with election music. Actually it`s not just tonight. I`m always obsessed with election music. Just ask my team. I`m always hoping to sneak election music into the show. NBC`s election music I think is even better than the Ramones for getting me geared up in big night.

Big news, NBC News started using music and it opens for the 1976 Carter- Ford election coming off all the fun fare, the bicentennial celebration earlier that year. Ever since, grand or Castro works have set the stage for the biggest nights in politics. Tonight, we are queuing up our election music time capsule.

(START VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Decision 76. Decision 80. NBC News reports the results of our national election.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Decision 84.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Election night 88.

From NBC News, decision 92 election night.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: From NBC News, decision 96.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Decision 2000.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: NBC News. Decision 2004.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: From NBC News, decision 2008

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: From NBC News, decision 2012.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TODD: Here`s a live look right now at Democracy Plaza here at 30 Rock. Decision 2016 is getting its final preps for the big night tomorrow. We kind of feel like we host New York City`s big election night party every four years, except this time, these two presidential candidates will also be hosting election night parties. We will be back after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TODD: Before we get to election day, it`s time for "The Lid." I want to share with you some head snapping numbers. The senate likes to call itself the world`s greatest deliberate (ph) body, the mails now being the most expensive. T.V. ad spending for primary races and general election contests has now reached a whopping $652 million total spending.

It`s at $769 million for just nine senate races this year. That includes running from campaigns and outside groups like Super Pacs. Three senate races alone have now topped over $100 million. Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Nevada we`re edging towards a billion dollar total now for this battle for control of the senate.

That`s a record and now maybe I don`t know if it`s one to be proud of. Let me just remind you. Both Bush and Gore in 2000 actually had T.V. ad budgets of less than $100 million each. That was only 16 years ago. Panel is back. Brokaw, McGhee, and Schmidt. Tom, it`s not surprising there`s big money, but $100 million senate races?

TOM BROKAW, NBC NEWS SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: When Jon Tester sworn as the senator from Montana, million people but 400,000 people were in the voting age, and I said to him the day after he has sworn in, I said congratulations, I go back, raise $6,000 a day for the next six years to run in Montana.

And he looked at me and it was true, I had done the numbers. I think it drives a lot of the anger in this country with what`s going on because it separates them from where real people live in a lot of ways and they`re spending more time. Steve knows congressmen used to go home, walk the streets and show up to the barbershop. They`re now at country clubs raising money of some kind.

TODD: We can`t say -- there is unanimity among politicians that they feel like it`s too much of their time. It has been fund raising. But there doesn`t seem to be any sort of effort to actually figure out how to...

BROKAW: Except Donald Trump ran on tweets. And we`re going to see whether there`s a lasting impact on that. Running on social media.

TODD: Also had $2 billion worth of his own like advertising back during the apprentice. I mean, not everybody gets...

BROKAW: But a lot of what he did was on social media. And a lot of the big attention he got was when he was tweeting at 3:00 in the morning.

TODD: Tweet`s free.

BROKAW: Yeah.

STEVE SCHMIDT, STRATEGIST, MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR: I think it`s a corrupting pernicious effect on the system, but political parties have always been moderating influences in American political life until recently, but the campaign finance regimes have essentially taken air in a balloon, squeezed it to another part of the balloon, which is to all these outside groups.

So, we`re looking at an amount of money, even before we debate whether it`s effective or not. I think most of it doesn`t have any impact, but for sure, you have all these outside groups that are armed to the teeth.

They spend more than the candidates, more than the parties, and they enforce a single issue discipline, which has collapsed the ability to compromise, which is essential to the functioning of American government.

HEATHER MCGHEE, PRESIDENT OF DEMOS: And it`s no matter what, right or left, warped our policy making upwards and that`s where you really start to see this loop between political inequality and economic.

TODD: So, Pat Toomey and Katie McGinty have had more outside money, they`ve combined, I think have only spent about 25, basically about a quarter, came from the candidates. It`s outside money that decides what to talk about.

MCGHEE: It`s Citizens United and that`s something that I will say actually gets citizens united. This opposition to the big money system, to that Supreme Court case in general.

And the difference is what actually Donald Trump has been talking about drain the swamp, but it`s this idea that he`s going put Hillary Clinton in jail.

I think that there are a lot of terrain here where republican Donald trump populous are saying pretty much the same thing about the campaign finance system as the Bernie Sanders population.

SCHMIDT: There are only two things you can do that affects this. Take all of the limits off. Take all of the restrictions off to the parties and to the actual candidates with instantaneous disclosure. But nothing, it shuts down.

(CROSSTALK)

SCHMIDT: It shuts down the outside groups. Look, you can...

TODD: You have to add in a NASCAR thing like where you -- anybody that gives you more than 100 grand, you have to name them in a T.V. ad. If you did that, you have created a market, says I hear what Steve`s saying.

MCGHEE: But half of American families couldn`t pay a $400 bill without going in debt or selling something, and so a 100 grand is exactly why we have that problem.

TODD: Tom, the first amendment issue.

BROKAW: I believe in transparency. What I like to see is instantaneous electronic ways that you can see at every moment during the day, who`s writing the checks. Wherever the Super Pac is. This Pac was financed by and you get the names and addresses and who they are.

TODD: Actually be in the advertising.

MCGHEE: California, it doesn`t do anything. It`s not just about disclosure. It`s about who gets it`s say. And the fact is that a working class person is never going to be able to compete. If we just have the system the person where the person with the most money gets the loudest voice in democracy.

BROKAW: It`s the fact that we got Citizens United and there`s no indication it`s going to be overturned.

MCGHEE: You can still have small donor matched public financing even under Citizens United.

TODD: I`m going to stop this conversation here because we can`t solve it.

MCGHEE: Sure we can`t.

TODD: The good news is there is sort of public outcry about this, that does cross partisan, but nobody seems to have a solution that either passes court muster or somehow passes political muster.

BROKAW: You know what I think, it drives a lot of people out of the system by the way. They don`t want to step in because they don`t want to be involved in that kind.

TODD: I have to stop. Tom, Heather, and Steve, appreciate you guys. A terrific show. A terrific panel. We`ll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

TODD: That`s all for tonight. Stay with MSNBC for all day coverage of this historic election. It starts tomorrow morning at 6:00 a.m. Full team coverage of the results begins at 6:00 p.m. eastern. Special edition of "Hardball" with Chris Matthews starts right now.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. END