Show: MTP DAILY Date: November 2, 2016 Guest: Kellyanne Conway, Bill Kristol, Allan Lichtman, Michael Moore
CHUCK TODD, MSNBC HOST: Yes, it`s Wednesday. It`s a battleground campaign blitz which has six days to go.
(voice-over): Tonight, if Donald Trump is going to win, he`ll need to tear down Hillary Clinton`s big blue Midwestern wall. Can he do it?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Got to beat her.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TODD: Plus, Michael Moore versus Donald Trump supporters. Wait until you see this new film.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAEL MOORE, FILM MAKER: Who doesn`t like the Supreme Court`s decision on gay marriage? OK, sir? Then, don`t get gay married. Right?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TODD: He joins us live. And the professor who says his system always correctly picks the presidential winner. Who is he predicting this time?
This is MTP DAILY and it starts right now.
(on camera): Well, good evening, I`m Chuck Todd here at NBC election headquarters in New York City and welcome to MTP DAILY.
Indians fans and the Democratic Party, they have a lot in common today. A few days ago, the Cleveland Indians looked like they were going to win it all. Up three games to one in the World Series. All the momentum was theirs. Two of the last three games in Cleveland.
Guess what? We`re headed to game seven. There is a chance they`re going to blow it. Yes, it`s a home game. So, in less than a week to election night, some Democrats are wondering if the same thing is about to happen to Clinton.
African-American turnout and early voting is down. Some polls are tightening. Meanwhile, Trump appears to be more on message this week, for him at least, than ever before. And the campaign is eying a major upset in the Midwest which the Clinton campaign appears to be taking very seriously themselves.
And so, with six days to go, the campaign trail, as you might expect, was humming today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: In six days, we are going to win the great state of Florida, and we are going to win back the White House 100 percent.
MIKE PENCE (R), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If you all do your job, we all get to go to bed early Tuesday night.
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: It`s like Hillary said, a man you can bait with a tweet is not a man you can trust with nuclear weapons. You can`t do it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TODD: Candidates and surrogates are blitzing the battlegrounds, Florida, Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina and Michigan all today. Yes, Michigan.
Even with all the headline momentum favoring Trump at the moment, he is still going to have to break through Clinton`s big blue ball in the industrial Midwest which, as we told you last night, may be his best and, perhaps, only legitimate path to victory. That`s provided he can also sweep the toss-up states down south and out west.
Both campaigns are on the ground and on the airwaves right now in the industrial Midwest. Trump was in Wisconsin yesterday and Michigan on Monday. The Clinton campaign is hitting both states as well. Kaine was in Wisconsin yesterday. Bernie Sanders is stumping in Wisconsin and Michigan tonight.
Here`s why Democrats are a bit anxious. This is a "New York Times" reports, African-American turn out is down. They are a critical important voting block in plenty of Midwestern cities from Flint to Milwaukee. "The Wall Street Journal" studied a cluster of mid-western states and they found that counties that are diversifying rapidly are actually more likely to vote for Trump.
But scaling this big blue is a monumental task for Trump. Michigan has been blue for a generation. So is Wisconsin. Although Kerry`s margin in 2004 was razor thin which is why all eyes are on this poll from Marquette Law School this afternoon. It`s the gold standard of Wisconsin polling and Democrats are breathing at least a momentary sigh of relief when they saw this number, Clinton leading by six.
But they were a little nervous when they saw the Senate number which only had Feingold up on Ron Johnson by a point, proving that maybe something is happening in Wisconsin overall.
I`m joined now by Trump campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway. Kellyanne, welcome back to the show.
KELLYANNE CONWAY, MANAGER, TRUMP CAMPAIGN: Hi, Chuck.
TODD: So, let me ask about -- do you accept the premises that, realistically, your best path to 270 has to include one of the three states I outlined, Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania?
CONWAY: That would be great. We`re gearing to sweep all of those. You see that we`re investing the candidates` time there. Both Governor Pence and Mr. Trump were up in the air in all those places. And, apparently, the Hillary team is playing follow the leader with us in the lead because Tim Kaine was there in Appleton, Wisconsin yesterday. Hillary Clinton is on her way back to Michigan. They practically live in Pennsylvania. Bill Clinton`s been there --
CONWAY: -- for a few stops recently. So, those are electoral vote rich states.
We also have a couple of other paths we can get our core four, Florida, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina, add in Nevada, plus New Hampshire, plus Maine, too. We`ve certainly been in Colorado. Mike Pence is --
CONWAY: -- in Arizona and in -- and in --
TODD: Well, let me go --
CONWAY: -- New Mexico today.
So, we`re not -- we`re not shutting out -- we`re not shutting down. We`ve actually expanded our map the last few days. And not just since Friday. The polls were tightening last week, as you know, before --
[17:05:01] TODD: Right. I understand that they`re --
CONWAY: -- the FBI bombshell.
TODD: -- expanding the map with your travel schedule -- which, by the way, there`s something -- let me ask it this way. Why shouldn`t I view this week, watching you guys go to Michigan, go to Pennsylvania, go to Wisconsin, and not say, well, that`s how Mitt Romney spent his last week. That`s how John McCain spent his last week.
Ultimately, the path to 270 for Republican has to break through that big, blue wall. So, are you really expanding the map or are you looking for a - - for, you know, a dent in that wall to see if you can find a path?
CONWAY: We`re scaling the blue wall and crumbling it down and here`s why. Mitt Romney and John McCain and Donald Trump are very different candidates. This is the disruptive candidate who gets these huge crowds, is building momentum in these last weeks. That was not true of the other two races.
And, frankly, if you`re talking about Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania as the way for us to actually win and not just bust the blue wall, then you`re assuming that we`re already winning states that Mitt Romney and John McCain both lost to President Obama, --
CONWAY: -- including Iowa, Ohio --
CONWAY: -- and Florida. Of course, North Carolina, this is their first time.
And, Chuck, here is the really important thing. And, you know, momentum and enthusiasm matter. You look at ABC-"Washington Post" poll, in addition to us closing the gap from 12 points to being ahead or being tied, --
TODD: By the way, let me ask you this, Kellyanne.
CONWAY: -- I think some of those --
TODD: Have you ever had a poll move 13 points in a week?
CONWAY: Well, all I know is everybody, including --
TODD: Have you ever had a poll move 13 points in a week?
CONWAY: I don`t remember.
TODD: And that you didn`t like --
CONWAY: I`ve been at this for a long time.
TODD: Right. But you didn`t wonder, something must be wrong with the poll.
CONWAY: No, I`m not wondering at all and I`ll tell you why. You can`t do that. You can`t play that game. I can`t have your network, and everybody else, calling the race over last because of the ABC News -- ABC News- "Washington Post" (INAUDIBLE) 50-38. And then, saying, you know what? That may not have been right.
TODD: Kellyanne, I didn`t hang my hat on that poll when it was 53-38 and I don`t hang my hat on that poll now.
CONWAY: A lot of networks did.
TODD: I mean, --
CONWAY: A lot of people in your network sure did. I can go back -- we can go back and roll the tape.
TODD: Well, that`s their business. You know I wouldn`t how we work.
CONWAY: But, anyway, I just want to -- I just want to make the point -- I just want to make the point that the tread lines are clearly going in our direction. And I think the most fascinating numbers in ABC News- "Washington Post" poll aren`t the horse race numbers. They`re the ones that show --
CONWAY: -- Hillary Clinton`s unfavorable ratings at an all-time high at 60 percent. That Donald Trump is trusted more than she by the American voter.
And I think, most importantly, Chuck, something you and I have talked about in the past. There`s a very important attribute that goes to empathy and compassion in connective tissue with voters. The question of who cares more about people like you?
CONWAY: That`s a measurement that President Obama beat Governor Romney on, like, 82 to 15. Clinton and Trump were tied on that. That`s a remarkable figure when you think about how Democrats normally have an advantage in that way.
So, all these trends are going our way. The Trump message on illegal immigration, --
CONWAY: -- trade, job creation, --
TODD: But --
CONWAY: -- non-politician, that plays well in the upper Midwest.
TODD: Let me ask you this. Are you concerned, though? You go to Wisconsin and Paul Ryan doesn`t exactly want to campaign with Donald Trump. You go to Nevada, Joe Heck, the Republican Senate candidate there hasn`t decided what he`s going to do about Donald Trump.
New Hampshire, another state that you brought up as a potential part of your path. Kelly Ayotte doesn`t want to stand (ph) with you. I`m going to can the question this way. Are you concerned that you may come up short, in a Nevada, in a Wisconsin, in a New Hampshire, because three of the leading Republicans, essentially in each of those places, may be holding you back somewhat?
CONWAY: Well, and whose fault will that be? Mr. Trump has -- he`s endorsed Kelly Ayotte. He endorsed Paul Ryan. He endorsed John McCain. He`s been incredibly gracious. I think he`s done his part to unify the party by becoming president for nominee fairly and squarely.
TODD: You don`t think he could have done more?
CONWAY: I think that it`s time for Republicans to come home. I like -- I like Governor Pence`s message. It`s time to come home. Mr. Trump went to Wisconsin last night to have a great event with the chairman Priebus, with Senator Johnson, with Governor Walker.
And, anyway, I just wanted to say this to you that we asked for a president Trump to have a Republican House and Senate. And I would point out to you states you`re not mentioning, like Missouri, --
CONWAY: -- like North Carolina where Donald Trump is ahead of the Senate candidates in most polling.
And, in terms of the governor -- gubernatorial candidates, Trump`s ahead of the gubernatorial -- the Republican gubernatorial candidates in Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina and New Hampshire.
TODD: One final question. In the early vote, on one hand, we`ve seen some good news on your side, depending on some of the racial makeup in some of the states, seeing good news on her side, depending on different makeups in different states.
But there has been one part of this that, to me, doesn`t look good for your side. And that is while African-American turn out may be down, Hispanic turn out appears to be on its way to record breaking. How much does that concern you?
CONWAY: Well, it all concerns me because that`s my job. Meaning that we want to make sure that we`ve early, Chuck, in the absentee ballot, early voting apparatus and we did. You know, if you have to go through these budgets and you`re deciding where to put your resources, --
CONWAY: -- you have to swallow hard when you invest in things like that. But we like, very much, some of the early returns that we`re getting in these states where we are on par or ahead of where Governor Romney was in 2012, in terms of the early returns.
17:10:08] So, we`re keeping a close eye on that. But I think it`s also -- you know, you`ve got these states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire which are predominantly day of voting. There`s absentee voting, of course. And so, you will, again, see Mr. Trump and Governor Pence in those states.
But we`re very happy with what we see, in terms of the enthusiasm spilling over into requests for absentee ballots.
CONWAY: And in early voting in some of these places.
TODD: But do you acknowledge that if the Hispanic vote is on its way to a record high, does that put Florida -- does that make Florida that much more difficult, for instance?
CONWAY: No, not necessarily. It -- there will be millions and millions of votes cast in Florida. And we feel really good about our Hispanic outreach program to the point where, you know, Mitt Romney got 27 percent of Hispanics. That was not good nationwide. Maybe he did a little bit better in Florida.
But we -- you know, we`ve got a message. We hear from a lot of voters that would surprise you, the number of people who are excited about the Trump message when it comes to job creation and renegotiating bad trade deals. And just making us more safe and prosperous. People want change. People of all backgrounds want change. And there`s only one clear choice when it comes to (INAUDIBLE.)
TODD: And finally, I`ve got to ask you this. There was an incident today. Some supporter of Donald Trump`s yelled at the media pen a pretty horrific thing. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You`re an embarrassment to (INAUDIBLE.) (INAUDIBLE.)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TODD: The guy yelled, --
CONWAY: I didn`t hear what he said, Chuck.
TODD: -- you sell out for a few shekels. This is followed up to -- I know you were asked about the JewS.A. chant or attack that another gentleman had. I know Donald Trump`s not doing this, but his support -- it is surfing -- surfacing supporters here. A lot of anti-sematic rhetoric that has been surfaced here. What is your campaign doing about it to tamp it down?
CONWAY: You know, it`s not a lot and we denounce all of it. And I would not be part of a campaign that (INAUDIBLE) and you know it. And so, in the -
TODD: I understand that but it keeps showing up.
CONWAY: In terms of the guy in Arizona --
TODD: It keeps showing up.
CONWAY: Well, what are we supposed to do about fools? With the first amendment right, you can -- you can sound like a fool. I hear people sound that way every day.
CONWAY: But the fact is that, in the case of Arizona, I checked with our head of security and he, plus the guys on the ground in Arizona, tell me they removed that protester. I didn`t hear that covered in the news or whoever he was. He was saying idiotic things that are -- that do not reflect our campaign or our candidacy. And Donald Trump has said many times, he will be the president of all people, Chuck, even those who don`t agree with him.
So, we denounce all types of conversation and outbursts like that. And I would hope that you know that.
And I do think that there`s very little coverage of a lot of the people on Hillary Clinton`s side that aren`t -- well, let`s just start with Hillary Clinton, herself who lies for a living. You`re talking about a couple of fools that are -- who say disgusting things at our rallies. I`m talking about the presidential nominee on the Democratic side.
CONWAY: She`s corrupt. And she`s lied. And she`s under another criminal investigation.
TODD: When it comes to some of that -- look, some of the rhetoric that has been thrown at the media, and I`ll just say, I`ve been experiencing it in ways that I`ve never experienced about.
CONWAY: Me, too. I`m Donald Trump`s campaign manager. You know, I have four small children. I don`t appreciate the death threats. I don`t appreciate --
TODD: Right. It`s not fun to have a death threat at your house.
CONWAY: -- the -- I don`t appreciate feeling insecure. So, I get it and I get it completely. I think everybody should tone it down. But that includes everybody, Chuck.
And I also don`t -- you know, I have yet to hear Hillary Clinton distance herself from a lot of the awful anti-police rhetoric that comes out of some of her supporters. She just sort of ignores it like she didn`t hear it.
TODD: Kellyanne Conway, I will leave it there.
CONWAY: Thank you.
TODD: It`s six more days and I`m guessing it`s six very, very long days.
CONWAY: I`ll see you victory night.
TODD: That will go by in a hurry. We`ll see you soon.
CONWAY: Be our guests. See you victory night.
TODD: You got it.
I`m going to bring in the panel. Joy Reid is host of "AM JOY" on MSNBC. Bill Kristol, Editor of "The Weekly Standard," and Kasie Hunt is NBC News Political Correspondent.
All right, we have our new battleground map that we put out today. There have been slew of new polls. To me, the most important one out was Wisconsin.
Bill, Donald Trump`s path still has to break through the blue wall of the industrial Midwest. And when you look at those three states, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Romney went searching for them. McCain went searching for them in the last week. Now, here comes Donald Trump. They all realize, oh, I can win all the toss-ups and still not get there.
BILL KRISTOL, EDITOR, "THE WEEKLY STANDARD": Right. In Wisconsin, it`s the Marquette poll which is very well respected. It has a good track record. Plus six. Clinton and Romney won the state by seven.
TODD: Even Obama won the state by seven.
KRISTOL: Yes, won the state by seven. It`s wishful thinking in retrospect there. And, therefore, you know, you`d sort of say, gee, it looks a lot like 2012. And that`s, I think, confirmed by other state polls.
The other interesting thing about the Marquette poll was that Ron Johnson is behind the senator in the Republicans --
TODD: Just by a point.
KRISTOL: -- only a point.
KRISTOL: So, in the same poll -- yes, polls can be off. But within a poll presumably the comparisons are real because it`s the same people.
KRISTOL: And Ron Johnson`s running five points ahead of Donald Trump. That tells me that Johnson`s had a nice comeback against Feingold.
TODD: But that`s probably max, too.
KRISTOL: That`s bad for Trump.
TODD: That`s probably max.
TODD: That five-point marker is probably as good as it gets for a Republican candidate running above Trump.
[17:15:01] KRISTOL: Right. But the fact that Trump is -- I would -- I don`t think people would predict that Trump would be five points behind Johnson, do you think? I mean, that --
TODD: And you know, what`s interesting now, Casey, you`re a Michigan native. And you keep saying, well, you know, keep your eye on Michigan. I met Michael moron (ph). You know, he`s another one that`s been saying you guys don`t know what`s happening here. Trump could carry -- do really well in the industrial Midwest.
We haven`t seen the cracks yet. I mean, Wisconsin, to me -- if it`s six in Wisconsin, it`s hard to believe it`s somehow closer in Michigan.
KASIE HUNT, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: I just think that it`s possible that there is a surprise lurking in Michigan that we are not picking up on for - - if there is an X factor in polling and all these things we`ve been talking about where white working class voters who have voted Democrat in the past and are excited to come out and vote for Trump. I mean, that`s kind of been the question mark all the way along, right?
I just -- I think, you know, and some of this, you know, kind of my sense from having covered Bernie there on the ground. Some of it --
HUNT: -- is I`ve had Republicans raise flags about it to me in the last couple of months. And at least one Democrat who, to be fair, has tried to raise flags in the past and been wrong. Still, it seems to be -- it`s a place that has come up with for me repeatedly.
TODD: Joy, --
HUNT: I think there could be something going on.
TODD: -- there is a reason of some nervousness in team Clinton. Not about Michigan the state but because of what it takes to win Michigan. They need a good African-American turnout and, overall, early vote has shown that maybe African-Americans turnout. Hispanic turnout`s going to be up but that doesn`t help you in Michigan or Wisconsin.
JOY REID, MSNBC HOST, "AM JOY": Yes, but the reality is Detroit and Milwaukee still exists and Philadelphia still exists. OK, the reason that Democrats have these white whales in the industrial Midwest where they think they can (INAUDIBLE) all the time.
TODD: I mean, Republicans have the white whales.
REID: Republicans have, sorry, these white whales.
TODD: Yes. So, you and Bill both are (INAUDIBLE.)
REID: Right, (INAUDIBLE.) But the reality is that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are going to go Democrat. They`re going to go Democrat this year. They`re going to go Democrat four years from now. They`re going to keep going Democrat because -- Democratic because those big cities, those big urban centers go for the Democrats and the suburbs surrounding them go for the Democrats.
And you have a state like Ohio. The reason that that in Ohio are more viable is you have a smaller African-American population.
So, whether or not you have the robust turnout that you got when the first black president and his reelect were happening which you can`t compare anything to. You have to remember it`s truly (ph) generous. When you had Barack Obama running in 2008 and 2012, --
REID: -- you had the first black president potential and then existing. That is why you have that little turn. You`re never going to get back that (INAUDIBLE.)
TODD: You know, it interesting you say that. I keep wondering, should we using 2012 (INAUDIBLE) --
TODD: -- when it comes to the African-American vote.
REID: You can`t compare --
TODD: Not quite in that because it may be too long away.
REID: Even that might be higher.
KRISTOL: I have a view on Michigan on this. I mean, go back to 2000 which is, let`s say, a generic, Republican, Democratic race, Bush-Gore, at an even race nationally, right? Michigan, I believe, was, like, plus four Democratic.
TODD: It was a closer race.
KRISTOL: Not as Democratic a state as people think. Who`s the governor?
TODD: Detroit is a lot smaller city than it was 20 or 30 years ago.
HUNT: And if -- and you know what Michigan is lacking that some of these states have, what Pennsylvania has, what Ohio has for that matter, it`s different even in Iowa, are big suburban centers with a lot of well- educated white voters. Some of them are Republican. A lot of them are Democrats. And they are not voting for Donald Trump, at the moment.
HUNT: And that exists to a lesser degree in Michigan.
TODD: Well, let me talk. Wait a minute. Oakland County -- I mean, it is inter -- Oakland County, by the way, a county that used to be a Republican County, is likely going to end up voting for her.
REID: And you have to remember, too --
HUNT: More non-college whites though --
HUNT: -- in the Detroit area than there are in Columbus or Philadelphia.
REID: But not as many as you have in Ohio. And you have to remember, too, that when we talk about the suburbs, we`re talking about the suburbs in the 1980s and 1990s. Now, what you`re seeing is a lot of African-Americans and others moving out into the suburbs because it`s the city that`s extremely expensive.
Gentrification is pushing a lot of African-Americans. You have a lot of college-educated non-white voters in the suburbs. The suburbs are not winnable for Republicans because of college-educated white voters and nonwhite voters.
And Ohio just has less of all of that. Ohio has one of the largest non- college-educated white populations. And it has it at very white, 80 percent white population. Trump can win Ohio. He cannot win Michigan.
TODD: I want to go back quickly to something, Bill, you were sort of eluding to which is you think we`re starting to stumble into a 2012 map, a 2012 result.
Let me throw up a bunch of the CNN polls. There are some people that have problems, particularly with their Nevada numbers. But let me throw them up real quick. In Nevada, Trump at 49, Clinton at 43. Really -- John Ralston basically said, don`t believe the numbers because the Clark County split is so wrong, which it is.
And their Florida poll looks like what other polls look like, Clinton 49, Trump 47. Pennsylvania, CNN has at four. That would surprise some people having it that tight. But still, Clinton had 48, 44. And then, they have Arizona, Trump at 49, Clinton 44.
But taken together, it is starting to look like 2012.
KRISTOL: It is a funny thing.
TODD: You know what I mean? If you take it all together.
KRISTOL: And take -- here`s the funniest thing. It`s an extraordinary year. (INAUDIBLE.) They want to be (INAUDIBLE). Trump and the Republican (INAUDIBLE.) And it is extraordinary, don`t get me wrong. But if (INAUDIBLE) and a week from now and looked at the results, it could look like a very ordinary race.
TODD: It`ll look ordinary.
KRISTOL: The Democrat could win the presidency by about four points. The Senate might be Democrat by (INAUDIBLE.)
KRISTOL: The Republican -- the Republican might hold -- the Republicans might hold the House. And it would be an interesting question and analytically. Have we all been too caught up in all the drama and what we`ve just had is an ordinary election? That doesn`t seem right somehow.
[17:20:07] TODD: Well, if we have an ordinary election, we may have just stumbled on an ordinary result.
HUNT: Yes, and I think --
KRISTOL: That`s well formulated.
HUNT: And you can get to the --
REID: I think the Martians would be confused.
TODD: I think the Martians would be confused.
REID: But I think you`d wind up getting to that result because there`d be shifting underneath. And I think that it`ll be white women shifting towards --
KRISTOL: Some of that.
REID: -- the Democrats and a higher Hispanic turnout.
TODD: And, by the way, --
REID: But white male voters going more and more and more Republican.
TODD: And this will be very important on November ninth as we unpack this election. I agree, the map will look the same. But when you go into the states, the map actually will look -- within the states, look different.
You guys are sticking around. Coming up, Trump and the establishment and how Donald Trump`s grass roots movement stumped the political elites.
And why filmmaker is warning about what could come next. He joins me live in the studio next. Stay tuned.
TODD: Welcome back.
As I mentioned briefly earlier, the Senate numbers in that new Marquette poll out of Wisconsin may even be more telling than the presidential race. Check it out. Democrat and former Senator Russ Feingold is up just a point now.
And incumbents under Ron Johnson, Feingold had a six-point lead in Marquette`s September poll. Had an even bigger lead this summer but, clearly, this one is tightening. And, boy, there`s a lot of nervous folks over at the NRFC. There was a time that the major Republican groups, even the party itself, thought it was over. But Johnson was a dead man walking.
That ain`t the case anymore. Feingold is trying to win back his old seat from the guy who took it from him. Johnson is making a lot of gains right now. Republican base coming home. It`s helping Johnson.
In fact, last night, he appeared with Trump in a rally in Eau Claire with Governor Scott Walker. He is one of the few Republican senators on the ballot in a blue state that is willing to be even in the same zip code as the Republican nominee.
And he`s going ahead and embracing Trump`s rhetoric, too. Johnson told the "Baloit Daily News" yesterday that Clinton`s e-mail saga is enough to get her impeached. The Clinton campaign is going back on the air in Wisconsin with a late ad buy which Democrats are hoping to keep Feingold on top. It would be very tough for Democrats to take back the Senate without flipping Wisconsin. That would really up end their math there a little bit.
Up next, filmmaker Michael Moore joins me to talk about Trump`s grass roots appeal.
TODD: Welcome back.
Can a campaign that feels like we had head-snapping stories practically every day, plus multiple October surprises. And none of that may even matter. One political history professor says the single best indication of who will be the next president depends on how the current president is doing.
Professor Allan Lichtman says 13 key factors about the incumbent administration and candidates will decide this race. Party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term on the economy, long-term on the economy, policy changes, social unrest, scandal, foreign military failure, foreign military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.
By this measure, if Obama and the Democrats fail on just six of these measures, the White House goes to Trump. Well, the professor who developed this system says Trump can start measuring the trapes. With six days to go, he`s sticking to that prediction and he hasn`t been wrong in the last eight presidential elections.
Allan Lichtman is a professor of history at American University, and he`s correctly predicted the results of every presidential election using this matrix since 1984.
Professor Lichtman, good to see you. And I will say, I know you`re not a supporter of Donald Trump. In fact, I think you ran for the U.S. Senate as a Democrat back in the day. But why -- what is it -- what are the -- what`s the missing seventh key for Hillary Clinton that is what -- that your system says is going to keep her from the White House.
ALLAN J. LICHTMAN, PROFESSOR, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY: All right. You`ve gone through the keys. And you`re absolutely right. My predictions are totally nonpartisan. Ninth prediction. Five Democrats, four Republicans. You can`t be more nonpartisan than that.
Here are the six keys out against her. Party mandate because they took a pasting in the 2014 mid-terms. Incumbency since, obviously, Obama isn`t running. Third party, the shakiest key. Gary Johnson is polling way above what any libertarian has done. But he might be fading.
Fourth, the lack of major policy change, given the gridlock in the second Obama term. The key goes term by term. Five, the lack of a big splashy foreign policy success in the second term, like dispatching Bid Laden in the first term. And number six, the fact that, obviously, Hillary Clinton is not a once in a generation charismatic candidate like a Kennedy or a Reagan.
But, Chuck, you know I`m not a hedger. I have never hedged a prediction in 30 years.
TODD: It sounds like you might hedge.
LICHTMAN: Before you were born. But I have a hedge this time.
TODD: Uh oh.
LICHTMAN: Do you want to hear it?
TODD: Let`s hear the hedge.
LICHTMAN: The hedge is, look, I`m not locking at a crystal ball. I`m not Ben Carson. I don`t have a direct line to the almighty. I`m basing my predictions on history. And retrospectively, they go all the way back to 1860. So, it`s broad parameters.
But in Donald Trump, we may well have a history-smashing candidate. A candidate who so much of the American people regard as unfit for the presidency who`s done a dozen things that would have driven any other candidate --
LICHTMAN: -- out of the race. I`ll give you a simple example that you know well. In 2012, when Herman Cain was favored for the Republican nomination, three or four women came out and said, he sexually harassed them. That drove him out of the race.
Donald Trump has been accused of sexual harassment by 12 woman and unlike Herman Cain, he`s openly bragged about sexually assaulting women. And yet, he continues on. He`s the only candidate ever to question the peaceful transfer of power.
TODD: Let me as you this.
LICHTMAN: So, he could break the pattern.
TODD: OK, he could break the pattern. But there is a chance that your keys -- that Hillary Clinton basically gets this last key and it goes to the third party. What is your level? What is the level on your key for a third -- is it the collective third party vote? What is it -- like, is it at a five percent threshold, 10 percent threshold? What is your threshold there? Because that appears to be the one that might flip it for you if it does fade?
LICHTMAN: Chuck, as usual, you`re right on point. Obviously, we don`t know what Gary Johnson is going to poll. And it`s just Gary Johnson. My typical methodology that I`ve used for over 30 years is to take the highest polling numbers for a third party and cut it in half. That`s worked invariably for 150 years.
And Gary Johnson, at one point, was polling about 13 percent when I first made my prediction. So, I cut it in half and I said, well, he`s about six, six and a half. That`s well above the five percent threshold.
But the polling now shows he`s in decline. He now may well dip below five percent. I don`t know what Gary Johnson is going to do ultimately. I`m not going to change my prediction a few days before the election. I`m not James Comey. I`m not going to jeopardize the election.
TODD: But the point is this. If he ends up less than five, then that`s one less key and then that would mean what?
[17:30:05] LICHTMAN: Well, --
TODD: That this -- your system would work --
LICHTMAN: -- that would mean I`m going to predict the --
TODD: -- if Clinton wins?
LICHTMAN: The system would work if Clinton wins. That`s right.
TODD: All right. Allan Lichtman, we`ll be waiting to see and maybe it`s all about Gary Johnson`s number to find out the future of your keys. Anyway. Always good to see you, sir. Thanks for coming.
LICHTMAN: Same here, Chuck.
TODD: All right. Still ahead, Michael Moore joins me in his new movie called "TrumpLand" and whether the nation can come together after this incredibly divisive election. Stay tuned.
TODD: More "MTP Daily" just ahead including a story of Michigan. But, first, here`s Hampton Pearson with CNBC Market Wrap.
HAMPTON PEARSON, REPORTER, CNBC: Thanks, Chuck. We had stocks ending lower on this Federal Reserve decision day. The Dow sheds 77 points. The S&P sinks by 13, falling below the 2100 level for the first time since July. The Nasdaq finishes down by 48 points.
The Federal Reserve left key interest rates unchanged but noted a case for an increase as, quote, continued to strengthen, with some investors consider ahead of a possible move in December. And Facebook shares of volatile after hours despite reporting revenue and earnings net beat estimates. That`s it from CNBC, first in business worldwide.
TODD: Welcome back to "MTP Daily." Filmmaker Michael Moore, a Clinton supporter and Flint, Michigan native has been warning about a Trump ground swell for months. Now, Moore is out with a documentary called "Michael Moore in TrumpLand." It is part in passion soliloquy, part focus group.
And the film more speaks to a theater full of Trump and Clinton supporters in the small republican leaning town of Wilmington, Ohio. And he sets out to see if there is such thing as middle ground to be found between these two groups of voters.
(START VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAEL MOORE, DOCUMENTARY FILMMAKER AND AUTHOR: Every beaten-down nameless forgotten working-stiff who used to be part of what was called the middle class loves Trump. He is the human Molotov-cocktail that they have been waiting for. The human hand grenade that they can legally throw into the system that stole their lives from them.
Who doesn`t like the supreme court system on gay marriage? You don`t support it, right? Anybody else back there? Sir? Okay, sir, then don`t get gay married.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TODD: Michael Moore joins me now. I have to say, Michael, I loved the idea of what you had to do. Bring them all in the room frankly. It is what the two presidential candidates should be doing. It`s what many politicalist, what we in the media should be spending more time doing. You put them all together. How did they -- how did they interact?
MOORE: People were with each other. That room was -- was about a one-third Trump people, one-half Hillary people, and the others were not gonna vote.
TODD: Why do they trust you? Why did the Trump people trust you on this?
MOORE: I always got -- I grew up among -- I am -- I am them in that way. I mean, I am -- I am Trump`s demographic. I am an angry white guy over the age 35.
TODD: Okay, so.
MOORE: So on that level.
TODD: And you like to throw a Molotov-cocktail at Washington.
MOORE: And sometimes, yes, I have known that feeling where I like to just kind of, you know, let`s blow this up and start over. Not violently, of course. But, so I understand -- but mainly because my friends who lost their jobs in factories and the people who suffered, now literally some of them for decades because it started back in the 80s under Reagan, I understand why they`re angry, and I understand why they want to do that.
So I thought if I can just bring them in the room with a whole bunch of people and speak to each of them that maybe there was some common ground we can find and maybe I can convince them to not use the ballot next Tuesday as an anger management exercise.
TODD: I thought it was interesting. We played the gay marriage excerpt not because you pointed to a couple of people that raised their hand about it. Nobody really did.
TODD: I do feel as if that one way we`re gonna look back on this election and it`s the end of -- I`ll start with another long time democratic strategist about this and he believes this too, that we are -- our divide had been social issue based, red-blue divide.
TODD: We are now -- we are seeing this is the year we found that trade really shakes up both parties. Do you think we are headed to a new red-blue divide that is based on that?
MOORE: Yes. And I think that this is the end of the culture wars. I think a lot of liberals are saying after the election even if Hillary wins, the other side are gonna be.
TODD: There are pockets in each side that don`t but.
MOORE: The big issues are over. They are not gonna go to the map on gay marriage anymore or pro-choice, all that stuff. I think that`s over. So that`s good. We are moving into the future now. The issues are going to be economic-based, you know. Does the government help me as a working person, as a family member, or is the government more concerned about Wall Street?
And that`s why Trump has been able to speak to people I know when he goes after Hillary for the speeches to Goldman Sachs or goes against Ford Motor and says, if you build these cars in Mexico, I`m gonna put a tariff on them.
TODD: You know, what`s interesting to me is that we know there in Iowa, which is there are Obama-Trump voters. They voted Obama in Iowa. Mostly, they thought Mitt Romney didn`t understand their problems and didn`t identify. The same people that voted Obama in Iowa are gonna vote Clinton.
TODD: Do you think there are enough of those in Michigan? And that`s gonna flip Iowa. Are there enough of those guys in Michigan?
MOORE: I think and I want to warn everybody, do not trust these numbers. I think that Trump -- look, I`m in Michigan. So on the morning of the primary in March, all the polls, this network, all the networks.
TODD: Everybody missed Bernie.
MOORE: That she was gonna win that night by 8 to 25 points.
MOORE: And of course, she lost 12 hours later. I think that there is so much despair in the State of Michigan, so much anger at the system, and when people hear Clinton, they hear Bush. When they hear Bush, they hear Clinton. It`s Clinton-Bush, Bush-Clinton, Bush-Clinton, Clinton-Bush. That has been their life and that`s the system.
And that`s why he has been able to manipulate and it`s a con job to my friends and people I know in Michigan who are thinking of voting for him. I am not sleeping basically because I`m spending my -- this week and last week in these Brexit states and talking to people in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
TODD: It`s interesting that you call them Brexit states.
MOORE: That`s what they are. The Brexit states. Because it`s the angry middle class -- used to be the middle class, and now they are people that work two jobs and are struggling to get by.
TODD: If Hillary Clinton is elected president, what`s your advice to her on connecting with this? Because I think she -- look, whoever wins has got to reach out to this angry other side. There is gonna be -- if she wins, you know, does she have this theater? Should she have a theater of just Trump supporters?
MOORE: She will win them over because what she`s going to do are gonna be all things that help them. She`s gonna make sure that the women in their families are payed the same as men. She`s gonna support legislation that has a family leave and a paid maternity leave. She`s gonna support the things that are gonna help them. She`s gonna fix the pipes in Flint, Michigan so people are not drinking poison water anymore.
I mean, they will see that and then they will go, you know what, and I saw it even in my show there in the republican town, I had Trump people come up to me afterwards, and said they are gonna think about -- they didn`t tell me they`re gonna vote for Hillary, but I said, what made you changed your mind easily?
You showed the picture of her holding that baby in Estonia when she was out trying to do research on her health care plan 20 years ago. And they said, you made her look like a human being. I said, she is a human being. She`s a wonderful human being.
TODD: Her problem -- her problem is somebody`s idea that she plays by her own set of rules which means ultimately she`s gonna help her friends before she helps me.
MOORE: I don`t.
TODD: How do you shake that?
MOORE: It`s a -- it`s a perception that -- I think the media has created this. I mean, she probably hasn`t help at herself. But just the fact like with the e-mail server. Why did she have a private server? Because she had been through so much abuse. In fact, for years. She is thinking to herself, I want my private life to be private. It ended up exploiting.
Now, we know that her favorite show is The Good Wife, Sunday nights at 9 p.m. I know everything about her now. The opposite of what she wanted to happen, but people have to get a reality check here. We are talking about e-mails versus everything that he said he is going to do to blow up the system.
And you don`t want to see that. You don`t want to see the economy is gonna go in the tank the day after this election if he`s elected. If you think you`re suffering in Michigan now, wait until a president Trump is elected. This is -- I`m doing my best to explain to people that while they have every right to be upset.
TODD: The way you tell this person, you just said yourself, Clinton-Bush, Clinton-Bush, Clinton-Bush.
TODD: So, you`re telling them, pick Clinton over Trump. You`re telling them, I know you life is gonna be miserable on the Trump, but then they sit there and say, oh, yeah, but Bill Clinton signed NAFTA. Why should they believe that?
MOORE: I will say to them because you are picking the right Clinton this time. You`re picking the Clinton guy. I`m telling you, she is gonna.
TODD: Do you find her a better Clinton than Bill?
MOORE: Absolutely. No disrespect to him, but she is a woman who had to go through the first feminist of the 60s and 70s. She had to suffer. She walked through the fire.
TODD: That scar tissue is going to.
MOORE: Yes, the memory of what it has been like to be the minority, to be the person who has been harassed and attacked. All the things that is in Donald Trump, she lived that. And -- and now, she is going to sit in the oval office and I think the first thing on her mind every day is gonna be let`s make sure we don`t hurt anybody, especially the children and the especially the families.
I totally believe that and I say that as a Bernie voter, and as someone who has never voted for her. I`m excited to go and vote for her next Tuesday.
TODD: New movie is "TrumpLand." I have to say every time I go on any of the stream in sites, whatever, it`s getting some views.
MOORE: It`s quite a few people are watching us, number one still in the country. I`m stunned by it. I`m happy. And the people watch it. Especially people we are thinking are not voting. That`s the worst thing. If you are thinking of not voting.
TODD: Michael Moore. Thanks for coming in. Good to see you, sir.
MOORE: Thanks for having me in person.
TODD: Up next, my politics-sports obsession. Wait until you see how I somehow turn tonight`s game seven into a very important election night- related issue. We`ll be right back.
TODD: Welcome back. Tonight, I`m obsessed with another cool intersection of my two favorite subjects, politics and sports. As you know by now, game seven of the world series is tonight between those lovable Cleveland Indians in American League and those equally lovable Chicago Cubs internationally.
In the history of world series game seven, as any guy, as a lifetime Chicago Cubs` fan when she is not a lifetime New York Yankees fan, Clinton has every reason to root for the cubs tonight. Check this out. When the National League teams like the cubs winning game seven, the party in power holds the White House.
Here`s some history. 1952, the American League, Yankees won and so did Eisenhower, a republican. 1956, same two results, the Yankees and Ike (ph) dominated the 50s. In 1960, it was the Pittsburgh Pirates who won game seven in that great heart stopper 10 to 9, and a democrat, Jack Kennedy did the same. 1964, it was the National League`s Cardinals in seven, and of course democratic Linda Johnson. 1968, the American League` Tigers won game seven, Richard Nixon took the White House. In 1972, the Oakland A`s and all of their long hair in the American League 1 and 7, Nixon in the landslide.
Since then, there have been plenty of world series game seven, some plenty of presidential elections but never in the same year, believe it or not. So what do you do if you live in Ohio and voting for Clinton or you`re a Trump supporter from Illinois? I guess history does not repeat itself. Have a great time watching this game tonight in Ohio. We`ll be right back.
TODD: Time now for "The Lid." Panel is back. Joy Reid, Bill Kristol, Kasie Hunt. All right. We just got wind that Mike Pence -- Ted Cruz is going to campaign with Mike Pence. You know, he`s a very new Trump supporter. Joe Heck has not flipped on Trump but he is alluding that he is getting ready to flip on Trump.
REID: He is Trump curious.
TODD: He is Trump curious. Paul Ryan is now comfortable saying he voted for the republican nominee. Bill, I`ll go to you first, sort of the founder of anti-Trump, at least the rage from pro-Trump. All these republicans, late.
They went 10 months without the Trump tattoo and they`re all going to the tattoo parlor going, yeah, put it on me, put it on me. Is this a risk? Are they hedging their bets? What are they doing?
KRISTOL: I think they`re being foolish and a little cowardly. I think what happened actually is they were sort of comfortably sitting back. They were voting for Trump and never talking about it. Then the "Access Hollywood" video came out.
There was that crazy weekend. Not crazy, an appropriate in my response to my opinion, something like, oh, I can no longer support Trump. They had not anticipated I think the deluge of e-mails and calls from Trump`s supporters.
TODD: Trump backlash.
KRISTOL: Activists, right. And instead you`ll say, you know what, I`ll just take this backlash, 98 percent will vote republican anyway at the end of the day. It went back the other way. Now they just look silly.
TODD: I just gonna say, what good comes out of this for any of these late Trump supporters if he doesn`t win?
HUNT: I don`t see any upside to be honest with you.
TODD: Okay. All right. I`m trying to find it. I didn`t either but I was like, hey!
HUNT: I do think that a lot of these, they`ve always been in a difficult spot. John McCain is probably the best example of this. Because for the most part, they`ve the republican base is gonna animated by Trump. It is like you can`t win with him, you can`t win without him. What are you going to do? McCain has so far stuck to, you know, he came out in the wake of that "Access Hollywood" tape. Obviously had some very.
TODD: He did not flip back.
HUNT: Right, and has not flipped back.
KRISTOL: You`re entitled to one flip and not two flips. That`s my general rule in politics.
HUNT: He is farther ahead than some of these other people that we`re talking about.
REID: I feel like nothing epitomizes this more than two people. Jason Chaffetz, who is on the record saying, I can`t tell my 15-year-old daughter, look her in the eye.
TODD: I forgot that. Thank you for bringing that one.
REID: Right. And then he gets the out courtesy of the FBI which then I think caused a lot of republicans to think, wait a minute, this FBI thing might actually make Trump win, and so he sort of scurried back on to the Trump train within 36 hours literally of the FBI thing suddenly.
And the other one is Marco Rubio who has been on record again saying that Trump is dangerous. That he had no business having his finger near the button. Then he flees over to the Trump side. Do you know what he got for it? Nothing.
His poll numbers in Florida have flat lined. He is essentially now in a virtual dead heat with a complete unknown Patrick Murphy who had no right to be. Let`s he honest, you and I both know Florida. Patrick Murphy is not a great candidate and he is within a point of Rubio. What has Rubio gotten? Nothing.
TODD: It hasn`t gotten.
KRISTOL: I think a big distinction these people will say, look, I`m a republican, my problem with Donald Trump, I don`t just move with anything he has said and done, but I think a Trump administration would be better for the country on policy grounds than a Clinton administration, I`m gonna swallow hard and support Trump.
That`s very difficult, deciding that once you`re become for Trump, you start down the slippery slope of sort of defending everything he says, rationalizing everything he says and does, saying he is a man of good character. That you didn`t have to do.
My colleague wrote, once you start being for Trump, somehow they start going down the slope. But they take themselves by becoming rationalizers instead of just reluctant voters.
HUNT: I think Jason`s has a slightly different case to be honest. I actually think he tweeted before that FBI news, that he had gone back. And I think that`s because he wants to be able to investigate Hillary Clinton with a clean slate.
TODD: And I also think he may have been thinking about a house leadership race, but.
HUNT: Oh, there`s but.
TODD: And I do think, can you be anti-Trump and be in house leadership? We`re gonna find out. Bill Kristol, Joy Reid, Kasie Hunt. Thank you much. After the break, the future of the news. Stay tuned.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. END