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Down to the wire, TRANSCRIPT: 11/5/2018, Hardball w Chris Matthews.

Guests: John Weaver, Anthony Scaramucci, Stephanie Schriock, Jon Ralston, Montel Williams

Show: HARDBALL Date: November 5, 2018 Guest: John Weaver, Anthony Scaramucci, Stephanie Schriock, Jon Ralston, Montel Williams


Good evening. I`m Chris Mathews up in New York.

And here at Democracy Plaza amid all the excitement and expectation of election eve, I have this tune bouncing in my brain. It`s that great song from chorus line, one, one singular sensation, one single thrilling combination. You have got one vote tomorrow, one, and it`s about Donald Trump. That`s the message Trump himself has pushed at every rally over the past few weeks. Vote for one of his candidates and you are saying yes to Trump.

Amid all his behavior, his gross statements about women, his ethnic and racial baiting, his personal assaults on anyone in his way. This is how the election is going to be read tomorrow night on Wednesday morning and weeks from now. It`s how Trump is going to be read, how he is going to read it, claiming personal achievement if he holds on or strengthens his grip on the Senate. Denying responsibility which is very possible that the House goes Democratic. In other words, Americans will deliver their verdict tomorrow on Donald Trump, and all he represents.

The final NBC/"Wall Street Journal" polls shows that among likely voters, Democrats now hold a national advantage of seven percentage points over their Republican opponents. Fifty percent say they prefer a Democratic controlled Congress, 43 percent want a Republican Congress.

Separately, a CNN poll released today shows an even bigger 13-point lead for Democrats on the generic ballot, 55 percent to 42 percent. That`s a biggie. And it just came out.

One consolation for Republicans is that 68 percent of registered voters say they are satisfied with the current state of the economy, according to the NBC poll. Yet, catch that, 68 percent like the economy. And despite that apparent confidence, far fewer are willing to say they like the direction the country is going in, only 38 percent. Get this, 68 percent happy about the economy, 38 happy about the country and how it`s being led by this guy, heading in the right direction. No way.

Anyway, a big disconnect there between the economy satisfaction and the Trump satisfaction. Taken together, those results show a dramatic disconnect, as I said, revealing that voters can be positive on the economy and still feel the country is on the wrong way. That is an alarming sign for President Trump and his party tonight.

It explains why Trump today raised the specter, you bet, here it comes, of voter fraud in an apparent play to discredit the results before they are even in. And even though the President`s own commission uncovered no evidence to support claims of widespread voter fraud, he issued this misleading tweet this morning.

Quote "law enforce has been strongly notified to watch closely for any illegal voting which may take place in Tuesday`s election. Wow."

It`s the old, the election is rigged cry that Trump had ready in case he lost in 2016. Well, Trump also went a step further and dismissed legitimate concerns about voter suppression, saying, so funny to see the CNN fake suppression polls and false rhetoric.

Meanwhile, Trump continued his attacks on Democrats today by stoking anti- immigrant fears.


DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: As we speak, Democrats are openly encouraging millions of illegal aliens to violate our laws and break into our country, and they want to sign them up for free welfare, free health care, free education, and, of course, the right to vote. The right to vote! There is only one way to end this lawless assault on our dignity, our sovereignty, and on our borders, and that`s by voting tomorrow Republican.


MATTHEWS: Wow, joining me right now is Susan Page, Washington bureau chief for "USA Today." Aisha Moodie-Mills is a Democratic strategist. John Weaver is a former chief strategist for John McCain and also now for Governor John Kasich. You are still with Kasich, right?


MATTHEWS: Thank you very much.

Let me go to Susan for the straight scoop. Susan, I don`t know how you can walk into a voting booth without coming out talking about Donald J. Trump, you know, wanting to ditch the guy, send then worst message of your life, or I like this guy. I don`t know how you avoid the guy. Your thoughts.

SUSAN PAGE, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, USA TODAY: You know, I think that`s what -- I think that`s true. And I think our polling shows that most Americans say Donald Trump is an important factor in deciding the vote. And in fact, President Trump has made it so, if anybody was not inclined to think that a few weeks ago. He has gone on this unprecedented series of rallies that tells voters, pretend like I`m on the ballot, because he is in an important way on the ballot. And the results will be a judgment by American voters about what -- whether they like the course he`s taking the country on or whether they want to change the course.

MATTHEWS: It looks to me like he is afraid. He has already said he is going to lose the House. He says it in so many words the last two or three days. And now he is saying he is going to lose the election because he is talking, it`s rigged. It is the old number he was trying out in 2016.

AISHA MOODIE-MILLS, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Yes. So here is the other piece of this, too. He is afraid because he thinks he is going to lose. Not just simply because this is an indictment on him, but also because what we are seeing right now is this amazing surge of energy among people of color, among young people on the Democratic side --

MATTHEWS: OK, tell me. Make me feel good. How do we know that?

MOODIE-MILLS: Well, we know that, one, because of the GOTV efforts that are happening. Just look at early vote numbers right now. Early vote is almost double what it was in the previous --.

MATTHEWS: Is that early or added vote, do we know?

MOODIE-MILLS: I don`t know if we know, but I know it is early vote. And then what we are seeing is groups like color of change Pac, are mobilizing so many voters in ways that are unprecedented. They have hit like a million-and-a-half text messages to voters. They are out there knocking on, you know, 13,000, 15,000 doors. So we are seeing more volunteerism happening right now.

MATTHEWS: What`s top up the interest on this election besides Trump? Anything else or is it all Trump?

MOODIE-MILLS: Yes. I think part of it is Trump. But the other piece of it is really we have a whole piece around black pride and around being excited about the first in Georgia, in Florida, opportunity to have elected officials in governorships that we have never seen before.

MATTHEWS: And these are not, what do you call them, sacrificial -- they used to say sacrificial -- the candidate who gets nominated never going to win, these are first rate Ivy League super stars.

MOODIE-MILLS: Yes, absolutely. I mean, these are people who have been doing this a very, very long time.

MATTHEWS: With experience, yes.

MOODIE-MILLS: And they are driving a new message, Chris, though. This isn`t just about fear and upset with Donald Trump. They are pushing a message and a vision for America that is progressive. And so, people are actually running --

MATTHEWS: OK. You are losing me here. You are saying the only way Democrats can win is if they are progressive?

MOODIE-MILLS: I`m saying what`s winning in Georgia and Florida --

MATTHEWS: You have a lot of moderate Democrats out there you are not cheering on very strong. If you don`t cheer them on you don`t get a majority. You hear me?

MOODIE-MILLS: Yes, I hear you.

MATTHEWS: Thank you. That`s my argument.

"The Washington Post" today about the Republican campaigns of 2018, noting that the fierce battle for control of Congress and the nation`s governorships has turned toward blatant and overtly racial attacks rarely seen since the civil war -- actually the civil rights era of the `60s.

For example, we saw Iowa`s Republican congressman Steve King, he is a real beauty out there, and his right wing political party comparing it, the right wing political party, the neo-Nazi party in Austria to the Republican Party here. That`s sweet. He saw a white supremacist group make racial robo-calls in Georgia, targeting Democrat Stacey Abrams, we were just talking about, and her chief surrogate Oprah Winfrey.

Then there is that racially suggestive ad produce by Trump`s campaign committee which wrongly linked the Democrats and the undocumented immigrant who is convicted -- there he is, for killing two police officers and saying he wants to kill more. Well, as of tonight, Facebook, CNN, NBC and FOX refuse to air that ad or pulled it from their networks.

John, this has to be the first time in modern history that a President`s ads have been pulled for being racist.

WEAVER: Imagine. Right?

MATTHEWS: Imagine it. It`s happening.

WEAVER: Look, his dystopian vision of the future he has knocked the legs out from under so many candidates running in the suburban districts. And he has actually broadened the playing field for the Democrats for the House. And I think he is the one who is causing the Senate races now to become much closer in Missouri, North Dakota, Texas --

MATTHEWS: They are getting closer.

WEAVER: They are.

MATTHEWS: In fact, I see the Democrats leading in every win of the late polls I just saw today, Aisha. Every poll.

WEAVER: Right.

MOODIE-MILLS: Yes. I mean, divisiveness only were is up to a point, right. So what he is trying is stoke his base. But the base is only so small, you can`t win only with your base. And I think what we are seeing with these polls right now coming closer for the Democrats is that there are other people who kind have been on the side lines saying enough is enough.

MATTHEWS: You know, let me go to Susan Page on this. You know, that couple of races I`m looking at is really close. And obviously Trump thinks he can pick them off. It is Donnelly in Indiana. He is going in to Missouri. You can tell by his travel schedule because that`s what the think. He believes rightly he won last time because he knew how to put that tour together at the very end in Pennsylvania, in Wisconsin and places like that.

He is going out to pick off the people with the more moderate Democrats, McCaskill, especially Donnelly and trying to knock them. What do you think of the success of that? Because those numbers are looking better for the Democrat as we speak.

PAGE: You know, it`s true that we have some of these final polls that look little better for Democrats. But these are extremely competitive races. It is still an uphill struggle, I think, for Democrats to gain control of the Senate. Everything has to go their way. And just look at the three rallies, the three states President Trump has chosen to go on this final day. Ohio where there is a governor`s race he has interest in, Indiana and Missouri, those are both states with close Senate races. And where he is probably a plus.

Unlike, say, a place like Florida, more of a swing state where Donald Trump may not be a place -- a plus in that Senate race or that governor`s race.

MATTHEWS: Well, President Trump is also targeted two leading Democratic candidates who happen to be African-Americans. We talked about them, Andrew Gillum of Florida and Stacey Abrams of Georgia. Let`s watch him go at them rather viciously.


TRUMP: I will say this. Andrew Gillum is not equipped to be your governor. He`s just not equipped. It`s not for him. It`s not for him. He knows it. He won`t say it, but he knows it.

Oprah`s good, but the woman that she is supporting is not qualified to be the governor of Georgia by any stretch of the imagination.


MATTHEWS: You know, these terms, I don`t know whether it`s about a woman or an ethnic group, a race, if you will, but he seems to reserve low I.Q. You notice it?

WEAVER: Just call it what it is. Call it what is. He is running a race- based campaign and a hateful campaign. An election tomorrow needs to repudiate that.

MATTHEWS: I`m not a big believer that the Ivy League distinguishes the brains of this country at all. But when you do have a Yale law, which is the toughest law school to get into and you are Stacey Abrams, you don`t call the person low, unequipped, and you know, unprepared and all that.

MOODIE-MILLS: Let`s be clear. Both of these people have way more experience for the jobs that they are going after than he had for the job that he has. So at the end of the day, you know, I don`t want to --

MATTHEWS: Is this going to stoke -- is this going to help? Because I grew up in a city where we had a mayor perceived to be racist, Frank Rizzo, whether he was or not, he was perceived that way. And it was the best registration the blacks ever had in Philly. They out registered the whites because they got him interested in the race because they said this guy is out to hurt us.

MOODIE-MILLS: That`s what we are seeing. And like Andrew Gillum said, he said, look, to your his opponent, he is like you may not think you are racist, you may not be racist, but all the racists think you are racist. And that is what matters --.

MATTHEWS: He doesn`t seem very impressive, I mean, Desantis, does he?


MATTHEWS: He doesn`t seem like an impressive alternative.

WEAVER: No. But to this point, it`s also bringing out younger voters, women and other who see his tone is off. And so, the swing is going to come from all across the --.

MATTHEWS: OK. Here`s a great question. I notice it had in my family, OK. Women tend to be more sympathetic to people of color. They seem to be more sympathetic to migrants.

WEAVER: Right.

MATTHEWS: Guys tend to be tougher, more macho, what do you explain about that, John? Why are women better than men when it comes to caring about people who need a little break in life?

WEAVER: Well, that`s the way it has been through history, right? Look at the gender gap now. It`s a gender chasm, 30 points.


WEAVER: And even among - I can`t explain that. I wish men --.

MATTHEWS: Well, I think women - I think -- I want to say this at the end of the show, Aisha. But I think because back to when Access Hollywood was supposed to blow apart this guy, and I thought -- a lot of the head of his party and the head of his campaign does (INAUDIBLE). He was able to cleverly put that aside and say locker room talk, it was no big deal. But with that two years to rise, that is him. That guy on that tape with Billy Bush is President of the United States. And has proven that for two years. That`s why I wonder how women can walk away and like I have to actually think, how does a woman say, you know, the stock market is pretty good and our unemployment is pretty good. And so I`m going to vote for this guy. How do you do that?

MOODIE-MILLS: Well, I have been asking white women for some time. How 53 percent of them decided that Donald Trump was their guy? I think that what we are seeing though especially on a suburbs is that those women have children and they have values. And they are saying I can`t even turn on the television when this guy is talking.

MATTHEWS: I like the way you did that. You are a real politician. I know you are a real politician. You said, their guy. Just like they are marrying the guy. I just love the way you said that.

MOODIE-MILLS: No. He`s not their guy any more.

MATTHEWS: I don`t think they are. I don`t think he is their guy anymore. The one who is thinking about it. And also the Hillary problem. There are complexities about Hillary at the end especially thanks to Comey that I think helped Trump. We are going to hear it. That`s not going to be playing in the field tomorrow.

Anyway. Thank you, Susan Page as always. I`m one of your huge supporters. Thank you. I know you are not running for anything, thank you.

And Aisha Moodie-Mills, we can disagree about center right, center left and left.

Anyway, thank you, John Weaver. Thank you.

Up next, the one and only Cher. That`s her, Cher herself is coming on this show to talk about the stake everybody has in tomorrow`s election. She wanted to come on and we couldn`t be gladder to have her.

Be sure to tune in tomorrow for live coverage, by the way, all day. I will be joining Brian Williams, Rachel Maddow, and Nicole Wallace, Eugene Robinson starting at 6:00 eastern tomorrow night, eight hours of excitement here on MSNBC on election night, Christmas Eve. Can`t you feel it?

HARDBALL where the action is.


MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL.

One day out from the midterms is tomorrow night and singer Cher has emphasized the importance of voting tweeting that President Trump quote "governors by hate, fear, divisiveness and lies. If you don`t vote, he will rule the same way. Vote or suffer the consequence." That`s from Cher.

And I`m joined right now by her, someone who needs no introduction.

Cher, thank you for wanting to come on HARDBALL. We are so glad to have you. Tell me why you think people ought to vote tomorrow and how.

CHER, SINGER (on the phone): Well, I vote for Republican -- it`s nice to hear your voice.

MATTHEWS: Thank you.

CHER: I mean, I would vote for Democrat because I just believe that, you know, he has shown who he was. He showed who he was even before. Central Park 5 and saying that President Obama was Kenyan, you know, and Muslim from Kenya. And I see the way that he has used hate.

And we say this all the time. Everyone says this. He is a liar. He uses hate. He uses fear. You know, I have said this a million times, but I think that when a man can take children away from their parents and put them in cages and he suffers no consequence, then I don`t understand how we are America any more.

MATTHEWS: Yes. Well, let me ask you about Trump and women. He got 52 percent of the white vote, of white women last time. What do you make of that?

CHER: I haven`t got a clue. The truth is, I mean, he would take away - first of all, he is such a misogynist. But secondly, he would take away the things that I have fought for since I was a young woman. And what I think is that a lot of these women, they are just voting straight Republican. He seem, you know, he was a reality star and he seems very kind of sexy or something. Also, he promises whatever. It`s like, I have never seen anybody lie so good. He would be the greatest actor because you can`t really tell when he is lying and when he` is telling the truth, and I find that actually amazing. I have never seen anyone who could actually do that.

MATTHEWS: Cher, I don`t know you, but I am a big fan, of course. I have some thoughts about some of your movies, which are all positive.


MATTHEWS: Anyway, let me ask you about this -- this thing about what you`re doing.

Tell me what you -- you have got a minute. Tell me what you`re doing to get people to the voting tomorrow.

CHER: Well, I just -- I saw something on television, and I just thought, I can help this.

So, I`m -- in five cities in Georgia, in North Dakota, and in Florida, I have gotten together buses and vans and having people taken to the polls.

MATTHEWS: That`s great. You know, that`s old-time politics. It`s called a polling operation. I grew up with my grandpop doing that in North Philly. And I think it`s so great that we`re back to that, back to on-the- ground politicking of the best kind, helping people have their right to vote.

And it`s a real honor, Cher, to have you on tonight. Thank you so much.

CHER: Thank you.

You know what I don`t understand? I don`t understand -- well, I mean, I understand it, but I don`t know how they`re getting away with it, that the Republicans are making it harder and harder and harder to vote.

MATTHEWS: You know why? Because they`re shrinking and that`s the only way they`re going to win.

Thank you. And we have said so. We have quoted the guy from Pennsylvania, the head of the party, the head of the legislature. They openly said -- and we have got the tapes, so we are showing them a lot of times -- that the reason they have to do that is because they`re shrinking. And the only way they can win is cheat.

Thank you so much, Cher.

Up next: President Trump`s closing message is a smorgasbord of unfounded fears and conspiracy theories. Are voters buying any of it?

This is HARDBALL, where the action is.



DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: You will be locking those doors. You will be locking those windows. You will be saying, oh, I wish we had Matt. I wish we had Matt representing us in the Senate, including those charged or convicted of 48,000 assaults, 12,000 sex crimes, and 1,800 homicides.

You know, you don`t hear that. I`m the only one that tells you the facts.


MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL.

That was President Trump in Montana this weekend selling a message of fear, didn`t you hear it, about immigration to his supporters.

However, not all Republicans agree it`s a winning strategy. According to Politico, House Republicans are in a panic right now because they fear the president`s ferocious focus on immigration alone will turn away suburban swing voters and lead to more losses in the House tomorrow.

According to one senior House Republican aide -- quote -- "Trump has hijacked the election. This is not what we expected the final weeks of the election to focus on."

Let`s bring in tonight`s Roundtable, Stephanie Schriock, president of EMILY`s List, Elise Jordan, MSNBC political analyst, and Anthony Scaramucci, former White House communications director and author of "The Blue-Collar President," about Trump.

Stephanie, my old friend, if you were a Republican, I think you would be saying, hey, we got the best tax cut for people like us. We got the best unemployment rate that anybody seen. And back in college, in graduate school, in economics, when I was in a Ph.D. program, getting below 4 percent was unheard of.

It would be inflation through the roof.


MATTHEWS: So they have numbers to brag on.

Has Trump figured out the voter is negative, and you can`t sell something positive? Why doesn`t he sell the positive?

SCHRIOCK: Well, it seems to me that he loves the vibe he gets in those rallies. And he just keeps pushing and pushing on this.

And it`s good for the base, the pure base of the Republican Party. But if it was really working, you would have very different numbers in Montana, Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia.

MATTHEWS: Yes, but that`s where he`s aiming.

SCHRIOCK: Right. But think about this.

Those are al five states that he won by double digits, and those Democrats are tied or leading. And that is a testament to each one of those senators and how good they are and what they`re talking about on the ground. Those Democrats are talking about health care. They`re talking about job security. They`re talking about opportunity.

They`re really leaning into health care, though. And that`s why people -- that`s why those races are so close and why so many of them are going to win.

MATTHEWS: Elise, two numbers; 68 percent of the country likes the economy, 68 percent; 38 percent like the direction of the country. That`s a huge disconnect.

So, even though we have got an unemployment rate that`s down, the job market is tight, the markets are OK, they still don`t like the feeling of the country. What`s the feeling they don`t like?

ELISE JORDAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: They don`t like the attitude of rancor constantly. They don`t like what they see as divisive rhetoric.

You go around the country, and you talk to voters who are really upset by the tone, even though they like the policy. Then you have some voters who love the policies and they have decided to completely ignore the tone.

So this is much more than a debate over ideology. This is a debate over morals. And that`s why the country is at each other`s throats about it.

MATTHEWS: I see a big blue wave, and I see a smaller, but real red wave. I think it`s two.

I think the country is really, as somebody said, kaleidoscopic. The country is not one country anymore. So you could see Northeast -- rather, Southeastern Pennsylvania, all those places going all blue, but you can also see places like North Dakota staying red, red, ruby red.


But if you talk to people that are in the know in the polling area in the Republican Party, they`re saying that there`s about 40 districts that are inside the margin of error, at least on the House side.

So, that`s sort of a miracle in some ways. And it`s probably a tribute to the president`s strategy. Whether you like the strategy or not, he is forcing the agenda to bring more voters to participate in this House.

MATTHEWS: How big is Kavanaugh right now, in your thinking? Is he still a factor or is he gone? SCARAMUCCI: I personally don`t think he`s as big of a factor. But I definitely think that caught fire two or three weeks ago that helped to create some of the momentum that the president has created.

MATTHEWS: Did Kavanaugh work in both directions or just one?

SCHRIOCK: I was just going to say, I always felt that Kavanaugh for the Republicans was going to be a sugar high. It was going to be a really good feeling for about a week that they won.


MATTHEWS: Worried about their sons, right? Women worried about their sons


SCHRIOCK: For a bit.

But, on the Democratic side -- and for all those suburban women who are very, very concerned about the direction of the court and the civility and what`s going on, it`s like, remember the Alamo. They are mad about it. And they are driving a lot of...


SCHRIOCK: ... about that.


MATTHEWS: They`re with Dr. Ford. They were with Dr. Ford.

SCHRIOCK: That`s right. That`s right.

JORDAN: I was actually very surprised with what I heard going around for focus groups for the Ashcroft in America project, going from New Hampshire all the way over to California.

The portrayal of the rancor over the Kavanaugh nomination played out very differently among voters. And Republican voters were still really angry and motivated in a way that I hadn`t seen in a long time.

MATTHEWS: You mean the effort, the really strong question by Cory Booker and Kamala Harris, they didn`t like that?


JORDAN: They were very angry about the way that they felt Brett Kavanaugh had been mistreated. And then Democrats were demoralized on some level. And this was just the groups that...


MATTHEWS: I have got to ask Anthony about this.


SCHRIOCK: But it only lasted about a week, though, because we saw it in the polling. And we definitely had a bad week of polling.


MATTHEWS: Anthony, why did the tax cut just go away, like a sugar high? It never seemed to grab as a voter issue, that huge trillion-and-a-half- dollar cut.

SCARAMUCCI: Well, it`s definitely helped the economy. I think one of the issues, though, is that...


MATTHEWS: I agree with that. It helps growth.

SCARAMUCCI: It hasn`t filtered down enough into the middle class. That`s why the president is calling for another tax cut, because for whatever reason, we can take too long to describe it, it`s not there yet.


SCARAMUCCI: But it`s also -- you have to know it takes about 18 months to really have the full effect.

I think this is a big issue that we`re going to be talking about on Wednesday. Was the narrowcasting strategy of the president on these three issues that he thinks will bring out his base the right strategy, or were those Republican aides in the House right?

And we won`t really know that until Wednesday. But the miracle of the Trump presidency, whether you like the guy or not, he`s out there barnstorming the nation, very differently than President Obama did in 2010, or George W. Bush did in 2002.

MATTHEWS: He`s targeting -- he`s really targeting the low-hanging fruit, if you will, the really tight races Indiana and Missouri...

SCARAMUCCI: He`s got boundless energy.

MATTHEWS: ... which is just like that. And he figures he goes to Indiana twice in a couple days, he can turn it.

Anyway, meanwhile, Georgia`s Democratic candidate for governor, Stacey Abrams, is firing back against her Republican opponent, Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who is also the state secretary of state, after he launched an investigation this weekend, claiming that the Democratic Party was trying to hack George`s voting system.


STACEY ABRAMS (D), GEORGIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: First of all, I think it`s wrong to call it an investigation. It`s a witch-hunt that was created by someone who is abusing his power.

Friday, Brian Kemp was notified that there was yet another flaw in the election security system. Twice before, he has accidentally released the information of six million Georgians. This was about to happen again.

Instead of owning up to it, taking responsibility, and seeking a way to fix the flaw, he instead decided to blame Democrats, because he does that.


MATTHEWS: Well, Kemp, the Republican, told reporters he`s just doing his job, and that he is not worried about how it looks, though he has provided no evidence whatever to back of his allegation.

I think the gubernatorial candidate of the Democratic Party could teach anger management. That is the calmest candidate. I am nowhere as calm as that lady is, the way she has addressed this last-minute smear to try to jam the election in one direction. And she`s calmly laying it out analytically.

JORDAN: Well, I was in Iraq and Afghanistan for elections when the U.S. government was involved in still an oversight capacity.

And if there had been an Afghan official involved in overseeing the disputed results of a contest in which they were a player, we would have had a fit. It really baffles my mind that, in 2018 in America, three secretaries of state have control and have authority over their own election.

MATTHEWS: Did you see that mayor of North Ogden, Utah, who was just killed over there? And his last tweet was, people over here risk their lives to vote, and we screw around and say, I`m in Starbucks. They don`t even bother to vote. I`m in another line.

It`s unbelievable.

SCARAMUCCI: But I think some of the extremis in the political system is causing a lot of normal people to evacuate.

And so it`s almost like part of the business model. The two fat tails of the extreme are pushing out the normal people that are saying, hey, I don`t want to be part of this.

SCHRIOCK: The good news, though...


MATTHEWS: I`m normal people. I`m normal. I`m still sitting here.


JORDAN: Are you?

MATTHEWS: I`m very normal.


SCARAMUCCI: You`re not that normal. You`re a high-information voter.


SCHRIOCK: ... is that we have had this extraordinary early votes.

We are seeing -- I mean, really, it is double what the early vote was in 2014. And in places like Texas and Nevada, over 40 percent of that early vote is coming from irregular midterm voters.

MATTHEWS: We hope. We like the irregular people.

SCHRIOCK: Those are the -- that is the truth.


MATTHEWS: Remember Trump says, I like the low-information voter? I like the low irregular voter that doesn`t usually show up.


SCHRIOCK: Not your in every election. Like, we go because we go, right? But...


SCHRIOCK: ... don`t. They`re coming out.

MATTHEWS: I like it when people that don`t show up do show up.

SCHRIOCK: This is going to be a high-turnout election.

MATTHEWS: We spend all our time preaching to the choirs around here, and then the people that show up will blow your minds. Anyway, we hope everybody votes tomorrow.

Thank you, Stephanie Schriock, Elise Jordan, and Anthony Scaramucci.

Up next: checking on our HARDBALL 10 -- that`s the HARDBALL top 10 -- the 10 key races that is going to decide who controls of the Senate.

I like the Senate. It`s smaller. You can figure it out. And there`s only 10 races we`re looking at that is going to decide, how they turn out, who controls the Senate.

Trump, I think, is playing on the fact he`s going to lose the House. He wants some bragging rights by holding the Senate. But, by God, he might lose both.

You`re watching HARDBALL.


MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL.

We have spent the past few months looking at the HARDBALL 10, the 10 races that we believe will tell us who is going to win the Senate next year, in fact, tomorrow.

And now it`s time to see where things stand on the eve of the election.

Currently, Republicans hold 51 to 49, a majority in the Senate. They only have a two-seat majority. Democrats are defending seats in West Virginia - - these are tough -- North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, Indiana, and Florida, all states that voted for Donald Trump.

Republicans are defending seats in Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee, and Texas. Not too hard for them.

For a look at some of those key races, I`m joined by Chris Hayes, of course, my colleague, anchor of "ALL IN WITH CHRIS HAYES." He`s down in Dallas, Big D. Jon Ralston is editor of "The Nevada Independent." He`s out in Nevada, in Vegas. And what stays in Vegas won`t stay in Vegas tonight. In fact, Jennifer Duffy is senior editor of The Cook Political Report, who knows all things Senate.

I want to start with Chris.

I always -- my favorite question -- you may have heard -- you may have used it yourself -- what can`t you see on television in Texas about the race between Beto and Cruz?

CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST: Look, we`ve seen the energy, right? That`s one of the things that has come across. You`ve seen the big crowds. We`ve all seen the phone banking. We`ve seen the incredible numbers of donations that have flowed in.

The thing about Texas is an obvious point. It is so enormous. There are so many different pockets of this state. One of the things Beto has not had in his favor from the beginning is he is not from the population center of the state. You know, statewide candidates tend to come out of Austin or Houston or Dallas. Most of Texas lives in that sort of quadrant with San Antonio there on the eastern part of the state.

He has no geographic base to work off of, so he`s got to find votes all over the place. And that`s a challenge that makes his job even harder than it normally would be for a Democrat running statewide in Texas, a state that has not produced a Democrat statewide in like 24 years.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you a logic question. He`s run as a progressive Democrat, a liberal Democrat, if you will. He hasn`t pulled his punches and run as a moderate like Joe Donnelly is doing in Indiana. How can he tell the people of Texas who are red in their souls and in their DNA to elect a progressive Democrat? What`s the case?

HAYES: Well, I mean -- he`s done two things. The first case is the idea - - and you actually see a similar thing that J.D. Shelton has done up there in Iowa against Steve King, where he`s running in a very Republican district is, number one, I`m going to work. I`m going to go to every county multiple times, I`m going to talk every voter, I`m going to be open, I`m going to listen. I`m going to hustle for you, I`m not going to be out doing other things. That`s sort of first case.

I think the second case is frankly, you look at people like Bill White, mayor of Houston ran statewide, lost by 13 points. Ron Kirk ran for Senate, mayor of Dallas, lost by 13 points. The math has not added up in the past for Democratic candidates in the state and I think the thinking is, try something else, right? The math has not been there.

You`ve seen Democrats run a sort of centrist Texas Democrats time and time again and they haven`t been able to cross that 43, 44 percent of the vote. Try to do something else and try to find some voters that other people haven`t found before. That`s been the theory of the case from the beginning.

MATTHEWS: Shoot the moon. Thank you so much, my buddy.

Let`s go to Jon Ralston, because I do hear you do have a pick in that Nevada race for Senate.

JON RALSTON, EDITOR, THE NEVADA INDEPENDENT: Yes, I predicted yesterday, Chris, that Jacky Rosen was going to defeat Dean Heller by a couple of points. The reason I did that is basically two things. First of all, it looks like these races out in Nevada from the polling I know about are breaking toward the Democrats.

But also, as you know, Chris, early voting here is 60 to 70 percent of the vote. The Democrats had a huge surge at the end of last week built up a 47,000 ballot lead in Clark County in Vegas. As you know, two-thirds of the votes are, they have about a 3.5 percent lead statewide.

It may not sound like it`s gigantic. It`s not presidential year margin, but it`s probably going to be enough because there probably aren`t enough votes out there unless Heller can really get a huge margin in the rural counties on Tuesday. And that`s going to be very, very difficult to do.

MATTHEWS: A gender question. Is it better to be a woman candidate in Nevada now than a male candidate? Has it changed? Like in California, it seems like it`s an advantage. But your thoughts.

RALSTON: Yes, I think so. There is some conflicting evidence about what the makeup of the electorate is, though, Chris. I think it`s more female than male, but Jacky Rosen would become the second female senator elected from Nevada. As you know, two years ago, Catherine Cortez Masto became the first Latina ever elected on the strength of the Hispanic vote in the presidential year turnout.

I think it is an advantage for Jacky Rosen, and especially on the health care issue. She`s been able to use that to pummel Dean Heller and talk about herself a lot in that. And I think that`s really helped her in this race.

MATTHEWS: Thank you. Hang in there, John.

Jennifer, tell me, is there any wind blowing from the left or the right or is it running -- these last couple hours, these last couple days, is there something moving toward either party right now nationwide? Or is it still?

JENNIFER DUFFY, SENIOR EDITOR, COOK POLITICAL REPORT: I think it`s in the senate. I think it`s fairly still. I`ve been saying all cycle that if Democrats manage to hold onto their most vulnerable seats, then political environment was the most important thing driving Senate races. But if they lose a handful, then it was geography is your destiny.

MATTHEWS: Yes. I was looking at, this is a bad luck year for the Democrats, isn`t it, in terms of geography?

DUFFY: Well, they have a terrible map, but they`ve done a lot with it.

MATTHEWS: What about -- is there two different waves? Is there a blue wave riding the suburbs across the country and the rim of the country, you know, the coast where they tend to be more liberal, and at the same time there`s that sticking with Trump thing going on in the Plains States and in the Deep South?

DUFFY: Well, whether there is or not depends a lot on where you live. I mean, if you live in North Dakota, then these voters seem to be sticking with Trump. If you are in a more suburban state -- let`s think about Ohio, maybe, where Sherrod Brown is going to easily win reelection -- that`s where Democrats are doing well.

MATTHEWS: I`ve had this question I want to raise. It`s a postulate. We are affected by the people around you. We always talk about the bubble around D.C., the bubble around New York. If you live in the suburbs and you say other women, who are you going to vote for, you might be more encouraged to vote, say, Democrat this time. If you live in the red parts of the country, you say I`m thinking of voting for the Democrat. People say, what? Is there that other direction that goes on in politics or is it all individual thinking?

DUFFY: Look, I mean, I think that you do -- are influenced somewhat by the people around you, but it may not be an either/or proposition here. I mean, I think you`re going to see some tickets split. We`ve seen it in the polls in some states. Let`s go back to Ohio again. Sheriff Brown has a very comfortable lead, yet the gubernatorial race is dead even.

MATTHEWS: Between Cordray in Des Moines?

DUFFY: Right. Texas, Governor Abbott is going to win by 20 points.

MATTHEWS: I know you`re not in the business of predicting, but what do you see happening? What has been the direction of the race? Is it doable for Beto?

DUFFY: Yes, it is doable for Beto, and I am in the minority that thinks that, but I`m thinking about this race a little differently. Even a little differently than Chris Hayes talked about it.

You know, his path to victory is actually through the suburbs. He does not have to win them all. But if he can really cutback on what a Republican would normally get there, he can win this race.

MATTHEWS: You mean the wealthier more educated Harris County voter, those kind of people?

DUFFY: Harris County, Travis County, the suburbs of San Antonio.

MATTHEWS: So that pattern is across the country.

DUFFY: That`s part of the place they have been focusing on. They have focused on younger voters and early voting sort of says that`s been working for them. We`ll see.

MATTHEWS: Maybe some women voters will vote for him and never tell their husbands like my mom never told Dan she voted for Kennedy.

Anyway, thank you, Jon Ralston, sir, for sticking around. You`re a great guru. You`re the oracle of Delphi. Thank you so much for coming on and making a pick.

Jennifer, of course, Jennifer Duffy, one of our colleagues here.

Up next, protecting coverage for preexisting conditions is turning to be a hot button topic especially for Democrats, not only Democrats, especially Democrats.

And Montel Williams, a long-time Republican, joins me to explain why he`s voted to vote like a Democrat this time. Never done it before.

And be sure to tune in tomorrow for live coverage all day, of course. I`ll be back here at 6:00 p.m. to join the crowd, our super team tomorrow night.

You`re watching HARDBALL.


MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL.

Republicans are telling voters ahead of the midterms that they want to protect preexisting conditions, despite their long-time efforts to dismantle Obamacare.

In an opinion piece in "USA Today", however, Montel Williams writes: I was once a proud Republican. But on health care, the Republican Party has left me and the 130 million Americans under age 65 who have preexisting conditions out in the cold. This year for my future, my kids` future, and my future grandchild`s future, I voted the entire Democratic ticket for the first time in my adult life and I`m urging other voters to do the same.

Montel Williams joins us now.

Montel, sir, thank you, because this has been a campaign where --


MATTHEWS: -- so many voters have talked about the health care issue, particularly the need for real coverage for people who do have preexisting conditions.

WILLIAMS: And the leadership in this country fails to even recognize the true problem, Chris. A hundred million people as of today have at least one chronic illness and about 80 percent of them have two. And over the next two to three years, that number is going to grow to about 150 to 160 million Americans. That`s almost half of our population.

And to say that, you know, we don`t think that it`s necessary to defend those or protect the rights of those people to be able to have some sort of insurance coverage, to be dropped off the rolls, every family in this country that is middle class, upper middle class or below, are maybe one terrible illness away from being bankrupt.

This last year, six months ago, I suffered a traumatic brain injury, which was a hemorrhagic stroke that I am very blessed to have recovered from, 99.9 percent. But about two years ago, my daughter went through two rounds of cancer -- two rounds of cancer. And if you take a look at our bills collectively, this would have bankrupted and put people in this country, middle class or below on the streets.

And it`s inexcusable that in now 2018, we live in one of the richest nations on the planet. We can`t come down in a bipartisan way, instead of dropping a nuclear weapon on the Affordable Care Act, we could at least come together in a bipartisan way to see if we can fix some of the problems that exist within it. We know there are problems.

The biggest problem to the right happens to be the name that they have given to it, which is Obamacare. That has nothing to do with it. It`s called Affordable Care Act. That`s what we passed the bill for.

And we should come together. This is what we should be demanding of our leadership right now, to stop all the bipartisan craziness.

MATTHEWS: What do the Republicans mean when they say they`re going to protect preexisting conditions?

WILLIAMS: They`re lying.

MATTHEWS: They don`t have a plan. They don`t even have health care plan to compete with Obama. What are they talking about?

WILLIAMS: The tenor of the day is to lie, and that`s exactly what the Republicans are doing what they lie. You cannot find one Republican super PAC organization in this country that`s come up with an alternative, you know, alternative to the Affordable Care Act.

So when they say they`re going to protect preexisting conditions, they are lying straight through their teeth the way their leadership is.

MATTHEWS: That`s the old trick they pulled in the `60s when they had Ronald Reagan on television saying they had an alternative to Medicare. They didn`t have one, it was MIA (ph), there was no plan except private medicine.

Thank you, Montel Williams. Great to have you on. Thank you for choosing our show.

WILLIAMS: Thank you so much, Chris. Thank you.

MATTHEWS: When we return, let me finish tonight with "Trump Watch", this is what he definitely will not like. But I think a lot of viewers will find it a healthy guide to tomorrow`s voting. You`re watching HARDBALL.


MATTHEWS: "Trump Watch", Monday, November 5th, 2018.

Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime elected after making a public statement putting down half the electorate. I refer to the "Access Hollywood" tape wherein candidate Trump spoke of the entitlement women have to assault women. The claim that Trump was merely engaging in locker room talk, these were not reflective of the man himself, no longer holds water.

The Trump of "Access Hollywood" is the Trump of the past two years, the one that calls a woman, a woman, horseface, a veteran member of Congress low I.Q., a candidate for Georgia governor, a Yale law grad, not qualified.

It is clear that this president has never abandoned the line of thought he revealed on the way to the White House, that women are a kind of subspecies, not worthy of respect or our confidence. I said at the beginning of this show that this election is about whether we wish to make a statement of support for what Donald Trump is selling or a rejection of it. I offer up a verdict for all watching right now to consider.

My granddaughter was proud of having lost a baby tooth the other day. While I`ve been away, I`m confident she has already been receiving a visit from the tooth fairy. But along with that visit should be a loud and clear statement from the American people that no barriers should lie in her way, certainly none more than any facing her brother.

Call this sentiment, but this vote tomorrow is about sentiment. Do you like the way things are going with Trump or not? Do you feel like cheering on his gross claim of entitlement to mock and disparage women? Or do you want to sing out with a higher sentiment in that booth tomorrow, that God created women worthy of all our respect, all of it?

That`s HARDBALL for now.

"ALL IN WITH CHRIS HAYES" starts right now.



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