Show: HARDBALL Date: November 7, 2016 Guest: Bob Brady, Sen. Bob Casey, Nicolle Wallace, Jennifer Granholm, John Brabender, Maria Panaritis
CHRIS MATTHEWS, HOST: Good evening, and welcome back to this special edition of HARDBALL, live from Philadelphia.
Tonight, Hillary Clinton`s campaign holds its big finale in the cradle of liberty, right here, the city where she accepted her party`s nomination just over two months ago, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
In a final push to get out the vote before tomorrow, Clinton will hold a rally at the historic Independence Hall right here in downtown Philadelphia, and will be joined by her husband, the former president, Bill Clinton, her daughter Chelsea, and President and Michelle Obama. All five of them are going to be here, all on stage together. Rock stars Bruce Springsteen and Bon Jovi will perform and join both families on stage tonight here in the City of Brotherly Love. It`s all happening.
I`ve said a long time, my home state of Pennsylvania is Hillary`s firewall. It has proven once again to be ground zero for another presidential contest. Once again, and Pennsylvania could decide this thing.
The latest poll out of Pennsylvania shows Clinton with a 4-point lead over Trump. It`s Clinton at 44 percent, Trump at 40. Anyway, that`s 4 points. Both candidates are targeting PA. Donald Trump campaigned in the northeast corner, up in Scranton today. He`s up there right now.
As I said, Clinton will end her day here in Philly, but she started her day on the western side of the state, the commonwealth, at the campus of the University of Pittsburgh. We call it Pitt. And here she is.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: And tomorrow, each and every one of you gets to make a decision as to whether or not, first, you will vote because in Pennsylvania, it`s all about election day.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: Other places around the country have been voting for weeks.
I see this man standing here with a sign, "Coal miners for Hillary." And I`ll tell you, sir...
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: I know how hard times are. And as I have said -- and you can take it to the bank -- I will not forget you and I will do everything I can to help people who have given so much, worked so hard throughout their lives for generations to build this country! We are not going to forget any American!
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: A massive Democratic city, of course, Philadelphia`s long played a key role in electing Democrats to the White House. The iconic example, which I`ll never forget, 1960, when John Kennedy carried Philadelphia by roughly 330,000 votes, swamping the rest of the state and putting Pennsylvania`s then 32 electoral votes in the Kennedy column.
In recent years, the city has delivered Democrats pluralities up to a half a million votes, keeping Pennsylvania in Democratic hands. There he is. The chairman of the City Committee will be joining us. They`re going to do it tomorrow for Hillary Clinton, led by Bob Brady, the head of the country`s last big city political machine.
Joining me right now is Congressman Bob Brady, a Democrat from Pennsylvania and the leader of the Democrats in Philadelphia. Also Democratic U.S. senator Bob Casey from Scranton, the senior senator from Pennsylvania. Also with us is political analyst Robert Costa who`s from Bucks County, political reporter with "The Washington Post." Thank you, all, especially Robert Costa, coming in here.
Mr. Brady, I saw you put together the organization on Friday. You`re going to get 450,000 votes out of the city? What do you think?
REP. BOB BRADY (D) PENNSYLVANIA: We`re going to get 460,000-plus majority out of the city, be able to carry the rest of the state to make Pennsylvania in Hillary`s column.
MATTHEWS: Senator Casey, explain to me the Scranton thing because I bet you know exactly why guys like us -- well, are for Hillary, but also other guys like us are for Trump. Explain the Trump phenomenon. He`s in Scranton tonight for a reason. Why? He think he`s getting a boost there.
SEN. BOB CASEY (D), PENNSYLVANIA: Well, it`s a difficult region, Chris. You have Lackawanna County, where I live. That`s Scranton. Then you have Luzerne County next door. And then you`re surrounded by Republican counties.
I think regionally, it`s more difficult than in some of the cities, Wilkes- Barre and Scranton in particular. I think she`ll win Lackawanna County. Hillary will. Her economic message is very strong. I think that`s going to be a powerful message.
But a lot of what we`ve seen across the state -- one of the reasons why you see some of that vote by some Democrats is that if you look at last 40 years, wages are only up in 40 years by 11 percent, by -- according to the Economic Policy Institute. So there`s an economic anxiety that sometimes he benefits from. He has no plans to deal with it...
CASEY: ... has really not addressed it. She`s put forth a very specific plan for Pennsylvania on manufacturing, making sure that we`re creating the jobs of the future, and I think that`s going to be one of the main reasons why she carries the state.
MATTHEWS: Robert Costa, you come out of Bucks County. That`s a swing county. It`s probably going to go for Hillary. But tell me why this state is divided. When you go around the state, a lot of driving around the state, what do you see in terms of the split between the angry -- in many cases, angry Trump voter and the regular Democratic voter?
ROBERT COSTA, "WASHINGTON POST," MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST Well, Chris, Secretary Clinton`s in Philly tonight, and Congressman Brady, his machine there is crucial. The suburban voters in Bucks County who listen to Bruce Springsteen on the way to a soccer game, they`re very important.
But it`s not just the east. It`s the west. She`s speaking to those coal miners and the steel towns out in the west who may be tempted by Trump`s populism. These are traditional Democratic voters, but in this time of tumult in the economy, she`s being strategic by making an overture to them.
MATTHEWS: Let me -- let me ask you, Congressman -- you have an organization, the last big organization with a big city. What do Republicans have like that? What does Trump have starting tomorrow morning at 6:00 in the morning. What does he do to get people to the polls?
BRADY: He`s not going to have anything to get anybody to the polls. The Republican organization is not geared up. They`re not ready. They don`t know -- they don`t know how to do this. If they get anybody, it`ll be their first time. So it`ll be first-time starters, and we`ve been there for many, many years. We`re the vets, and we`ll take -- we`ll carry the city big-time.
MATTHEWS: Senator, let me ask you about the culture of this state. Pennsylvania`s a real place, all right? Describe it to somebody -- I know Philly`s unique, too, but describe Pennsylvania and why Trump would put his heart in winning here. You said the other night, Congressman, it`s just propaganda. He`s talked himself into thinking -- why to Republicans always think they can carry Pennsylvania and never do?
CASEY: Well, Chris, I think one of the keys now is in suburban Philadelphia. Those four counties will comprise 22 percent of the vote. The president`s margin four years ago in the four counties combined was 123,000. Hillary`s going to exceed that. I don`t know exactly how much, but she`ll exceed it, I think substantially, which I think will more than compensate for areas where Democrats haven`t done as well.
Give you an example, almost every county outside of Allegheny County in western Pennsylvania has trended Republican not just for this election. This has happened over the last 15 years. The good news is I think the votes in the eastern corner of the state, especially the suburbs, will be able to make up for that. That`s why I think she`s going to win.
MATTHEWS: So you`re talking about the suburbs being enough to win. Robert, you come from the suburbs. Tell me about how the suburbs have moved towards the Democrats. Is it demographics? Is it highly educated people moving into places like Bucks and Chester? I mean, I`ve seen these stats. It`s, like, 43 percent of the people or something, the most highest percentage of people to finish college is in Chester, for example.
COSTA: You`re right. And the senator`s spot (ph) -- this is a crucial area, a lot of highly educated women, highly educated men. They went for President Obama. They liked his temperament. They`ve been moving toward the Democratic Party in many of these formerly moderate Republican circles because they didn`t see in the new version of the Republican Party something they could identify with.
But they did go Republican -- if you think back in 2004, during a wartime, (INAUDIBLE) voters who were motivated not just by being with someone who was a different kind of temperament, a more moderate temperament. They`re driven in part by fear, and so it`s going to be interesting tonight -- can Secretary Clinton speak to those suburban voters, the skittish ones in Bucks and Montgomery and elsewhere and try to reassure them that Trump, even if he`s change, he`s not the right kind of change.
MATTHEWS: I got a sense, Congressman, that a lot of Democrats, Reagan Democrats, grew up Democrat in the rest of the state, maybe some in the city. They feel the Democratic Party`s gotten too elite, too globaloney (ph), too much trading, too many wars. They think the immigration hasn`t been put under control, and they lean conservative now. How do the Democrats get them back?
BRADY: They`re back. They have been back. You know, we do this 365 days a year. This is just one election. We do this all the time. Our committee people, our ward leaders are in the neighborhoods. They service people. We have a Democratic organization with mainly Democratic elected officials that service people.
And people recognize service. They want to get things done. They want to vote for the president of the United States, but they want a pothole fixed, too, and they want their kids to go to school and they want decent schools. And we do that. We do that 365 days a year for every election, not just one time because it`s a special election when the president runs.
MATTHEWS: Trump`s used -- Trump has hit every pressure point he can. You angry about immigration, vote for me. You`re angry about your loss of manufacturing jobs, vote for me. If you like coal, vote for me. If you like guns, vote for me. He`s solving everybody`s problem, right?
CASEY: But I wish he`d put it -- I wish he`d put some plans on paper.
MATTHEWS: I know!
CASEY: Be nice to have him do it.
MATTHEWS: But he has -- he has got -- anybody got a grief (ph), he says, I got your answer. He`s going keep digging coal mines. We`re going back to coal.
MATTHEWS: Is this really -- do people buy that?
CASEY: I don`t think the buy it, and one of the reasons they don`t buy it is because there`s only one candidate in the race who actually has a specific plan for folks...
MATTHEWS: But Hillary`s very careful, saying, I`m not going to forget the coal miners. But she`s not going back into coal as a way of producing energy in this country.
CASEY: But she has very specific ideas about how to help people transition. And I don`t know what Donald Trump is talking about when he talks about, you know, he`s helping people in coal country. He hasn`t told them what he`ll do.
BRADY: He`s going to take care of everything, but he just isn`t telling anybody how he`s going to do it or how he`s going to pay for it.
MATTHEWS: Let me ask you about the -- the strike we had here the last few days, the TWA (ph). Usually -- when I`m growing up, it was Michael Quail. (ph) He would strike here on year, strike New York the next year, back and forth. Was that going to affect the vote here or not? It`s settled now.
BRADY: It`s over. The buses are running tonight, and we`ve got a lock (ph) guarantee there`ll be 100 percent service tomorrow morning, so we`re fine.
MATTHEWS: So everybody`s going to vote.
BRADY: Everybody`s going to vote.
MATTHEWS: And the first call for the committeemen will be at what time tomorrow morning?
BRADY: Oh, they`ll be up by 5:30, 6:00 o`clock.
MATTHEWS: We have a very proud organization here in the city of Philadelphia. Robert Costa, you suburbanites, don`t fully appreciate the concern that the committeeman has to make sure you damn well vote.
Anyway, thank you, Robert Costa, Senator Bob Casey, U.S. Congressman Robert Brady.
When we come back, the state of this race with just hours to go before voting actually begins tomorrow morning.
This is HARDBALL from Philadelphia, live, the place for politics.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: This is the last day of our campaign. Who would have believed this?
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
TRUMP: Who would have believed it? Been some campaign, too. This is it. Good luck! Get out there. I did my thing! I mean, I worked!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL, live from Philadelphia tonight, where Hillary, Bill and Chelsea Clinton are going to hold a big rally with President Obama and first lady Michelle Obama, and of course, we`re going to have Bruce Springsteen here and Jon Bon Jovi, of course.
Donald Trump is at a five-state blitz right now. And you see him there. He`s getting tired, of course, the final day of campaigning in 2016. The candidates always get tired the last day.
Earlier today, across this state, in Pittsburgh, Secretary Clinton took a final swing at Trump, she called -- who she called divisive and unfit to be commander-in-chief. Let`s watch that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: We don`t have to accept a dark and divisive vision for America. Tomorrow, you can vote for a hopeful, inclusive, big-hearted America. Tomorrow, we face the test of our time. Will we be coming together as a nation or splitting further apart?
I think we do need some more love and kindness, all right?
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: We have got to rise above all of this hate-filled rhetoric, all of these insults and scapegoating and finger pointing.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: Well, you can say that again.
Let`s bring in NBC News correspondent Andrea Mitchell, who got her start here as a reporter with KWY radio here in Philadelphia. She used to cover exciting campaigns back in `74. I can remember those campaigns.
She`s at the rally -- look at this. She`s right there in front of Independence Hall behind me, right there. Andrea, give us a sense of that crowd and where this campaign stands right now with a few hours to go before everything starts.
ANDREA MITCHELL, NBC CORRESPONDENT: This is simply amazing. I mean, as an American, as a Philadelphia person, as -- I mean, just as a citizen, to be in front of Independence Hall with this kind of crowd on election eve, it`s just a phenomenal setting. The crowd is exuberant.
You know, this has been a very long and often painful 18 months, Chris, by anybody`s account, and until the very last moment, clouded by the e-mail controversies, only cleared up by the FBI director, you know, yesterday.
MITCHELL: Still, Hillary Clinton was really ebullient. I started the day with her up in Westchester on the tarmac. She took a few questions, we posed for some pictures, and she said -- you know, we tried to ask her a question about Jim Comey, and she said, We`re on a good track.
So she will not respond to that. We talked about this last night, you and I. She does not want to talk about that because they think it`s just a reminder of all of the troubles that they`ve had with the personal server. And she`s going for swing voters in Michigan today and in Pennsylvania. She was saying, you know, To those of you who aren`t with me, I can be a president for all of you.
There`s a primetime ad on tonight on NBC and CBS, a two-minute ad straight to camera. This is her pitch. I want to unify the country. That`s what she told us at the airport this morning, and we`re told there`s a possibility at 3:00 o`clock this morning when we get back to Westchester County, she`s going to talk and be met by supporters on the tarmac again. An amazing day!
MATTHEWS: Yes, it is. (INAUDIBLE) I`ve been thinking -- do you have a sense of your reporting, can you tell whether she hoped in this campaign -- remember for a while there, she was saying, When they go low, we go high. We`ll take the high road. Then we got the FBI report Friday a week ago, two Fridays ago. And it seemed like then she had to change the campaign back to tit for tat, rather than -- and now at the last minute, she`s turning high road. Did she want to turn high road before this?
MITCHELL: She -- absolutely. She told us -- we were talking to her on the plane coming back from the last debate, and she would not rise to any bait. She did not want to debate or argue with Donald Trump after that debate. She clearly felt she`d won that final debate, and then the very next day, got slammed, blindsided really, by the Comey letter, and they felt they had to go negative.
So all of the plans for 10, 12 days of a positive ending, an uplifting ending, were, you know, erased by that. And now she`s really hoping in these closing hours to reach people as she did, she hopes, in Pittsburgh and now in Philadelphia later tonight, joined by -- an unprecedented closing rally, as you have said -- by both Obamas, by Bon Jovi, by Springsteen. I mean, an amazing setting.
And I was thinking about the setting because you go to all of these rallies -- I`ve been traveling for 18 months with her. And there`s also a lot of orchestration and drama and lighting, which I first witnessed covering Ronald Reagan, who was the master of all this. His people were.
But this is so symbolic, Independence Hall. She`s talking about becoming the first woman president, and this is where the founders met. And just think about what history she could be making tomorrow if she`s successful.
MATTHEWS: I agree so well. Thank you, Andrea Mitchell. You got a sense of this importance of what`s happening tonight. I love it.
Let`s bring in Chuck Todd, NBC News political director, moderator of MEET THE PRESS, Nicole Wallace, former communications director for President George W. Bush and an MSNBC political analyst, and Eugene Robinson. Thank you all for joining us tonight.
I guess I want to ask you all about where this stands. And -- and Trump, I guess, if I were Trump -- and I want to start with Chuck on this -- to think through what`s going on in his head up there in Scranton tonight and later in the evening, I think, if you`re behind in the polls, you have got to do two things.
You have got hope you can get a last-minute roll and pick up some states you`re right on the edge of taking, like a New Hampshire. And maybe it will help you in maybe in Florida. And then you have to have reach. So, you have to do some roll, hope for the roll, and then reach beyond where you think the roll is going to take you and go to those reach states.
I think that`s what he`s doing. It`s rational, maybe the most rational period of his campaign, but it`s desperate rationalism. Your thinking about what Trump is trying to do in these last hours?
CHUCK TODD, MODERATOR, "MEET THE PRESS": Well, look, yes, I agree this is a very rational move by him.
It is, you know, the traditional swing states weren`t enough. He had to find some others. But I can`t help but wonder if he`s filled with regret. In hindsight, it is stunning that Scranton and Macomb County, Michigan, and, say, Janesville, Wisconsin, to borrow a familiar hometown of a certain Wisconsin Republican, weren`t more regular stops for Trump during the fall.
And, in hindsight, did he -- just as the Democrats have taken all of these formally red states in the Sun Belt that have been diversifying year after year, there`s been a demographic change taking place in the northern tier that Republicans should have been able to take advantage of sooner. And Trump was the messenger to do it when it came to issues of trade and things like that.
And to watch this last week makes you think, boy, what could have been an what a different place we might be in tonight.
Well, let me go to Nicolle on that.
Nicolle, your thing, you have got a big brain in this kind of political setting. You know what the big brain has to do, think about what you can do in the time you have left. What`s Trump doing, as you see it?
NICOLLE WALLACE, FORMER BUSH WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: Listen, I agree with both of you.
I think he`s doing the only thing that there is left to do, which is to throw that Hail Mary. I can`t believe I`m making a sports analogy with the likes all of you.
WALLACE: But he is doing what he has to do if he wants to win, because he can sweep the battlegrounds and lose, right? He could win Florida, Ohio, all the gray states on our map and still lose the presidency.
So he`s doing exactly what you have to do. But you`re asking the question that I think haunts most Republicans as we lay awake sleepless at night, which is what could have been. And most polls show him coming up short. Most Republicans I have talked to of the much-loathed establishment ilk think he`s going to come up short.
But this is not the kind of election where we can wake up the next morning and go back to business as usual. And you talked about the counties where a different message is the one that it`s going to take if we want to reclaim any sort of hope of ever winning a national election again.
This will be -- we have lost a few now in a row. And there are a lot of good lessons to learn about the way Trump talked to the GOP base about economic despair. It`s something that a lot of Republicans, the 16 that he ran against, failed at.
Gene, you and I have talked about the way Trump -- and I don`t think you like it -- you like it less than I like it. And I don`t like it much, which is the way Trump has disparaged minorities, just disparaged people of color. And he`s done it in a way that`s almost suicidal.
If you take 20 -- if you spot your opponent, in this case Hillary Clinton, a quarter of the vote, Hispanic and African-American, you just spot them that, and then you say, oh, I`m still going to win, who are you lying to? Because you would have to carry two-thirds of what`s left, two-thirds, 66, 67 percent, to win an election.
It`s crazy, what he did. I`m saying it`s also probably immoral, but let`s start with the crazy.
EUGENE ROBINSON, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, yes, crazy, immoral, and just plain wrong.
Look, I have always said -- we have had this discussion before. It doesn`t make any sense. If -- someday, the Republican Party, there will be a Republican Party, I hope, that makes a sincere appeal for African-American and Latino votes. And that will require not just, you know, showing up at a black church on a Sunday. It will require examining policies and including people on the grassroots level and a lot of stuff that the Republican Party hasn`t done.
Donald Trump is not the person to do that, obviously. He was never going to do it. In fact, he did the opposite. And he sort of energized the alt- right and that sort of sector of voters. But he turned everybody else off. And so, yes, he`d be doing better if he were a different person.
MATTHEWS: I think that`s very fair.
Let me get back to Chuck.
And you reserve judgment on a lot of these things as a straight analyst, but let me just say this. The decision to start his national role as a birther, he chose to emerge as a birther by saying the president of the United States, the first African-American -- he comes from a mixed background, but he`s African-American -- and saying he`s basically somebody who snuck in the country under an assumed identity and is not who he says he is, nobody knew him in school -- it`s worse than being -- saying he`s an illegal immigrant.
He said he`s basically a Manchurian Candidate. And he did that to get himself his legs politically. And that`s how he built his voice. And then to end it later and then to develop with rapists and murderers -- you can argue about immigration policy all the time our lives getting it straight, but accusing immigrants of all being criminals is not a starting point, unless you`re him.
TODD: Look, he created a toxic mix here, right?
Economic populism was very powerful and potentially a terrific message in a general election, but he mixed it with sort of this cultural backlash that has also taken place in this country.
It happens. We have made some -- there have been some dramatic changes in our culture, whether it`s marriage equality, the election of the first African-American, the possible election of the first woman president, transgender folks like Caitlyn Jenner now front and center type of things.
So, there`s been a dramatic change in culture. And Trump basically wrapped both issues together, which was one way to win a -- the nomination, but it automatically -- going to what you guys did here, if he had separated his cultural backlash message and never touched that, never got into it -- I mean, look, the most powerful future coalition in this country is going to be an economic populist message that unites working-class whites and working-class Latinos and working-class African-Americans.
MATTHEWS: I`m with you. I`m with you.
TODD: Bernie Sanders might have put that coalition together had he gotten a nomination and might have shown us how potentially powerful that is. That`s what Trump cut himself off from.
MATTHEWS: Well, that politics of Bobby Kennedy is a long way in the past, unfortunately, but it was once there, because we saw as the train went by in New Jersey and by here in 1968, the funeral train of Bobby Kennedy, there were white faces and black faces, and they were all working people, and they were saluting this guy as a fellow patriot.
That was a moment that we have to get back to.
By the way, it`s a great honor working with you guys, all of you.
Thank you, Chuck Todd, Nicolle Wallace, and Eugene Robinson, the night before the election.
WALLACE: Thanks, Chris.
TODD: You make it fun, buddy.
ROBINSON: OK. See you tomorrow.
MATTHEWS: Up next: Hillary Clinton`s fighting hard in the Industrial Midwest. She`s pushing to hang on to Michigan and Pennsylvania, as Trump looks to make inroads into these traditionally blue states.
And this is HARDBALL, the place for politics.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: By the way, Michigan is in play. You know, it hasn`t been in play for Republicans for 30-something years. Michigan is in play because they`re tired of watching their car factories be taken out.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL live from Philadelphia tonight, as we await tonight`s rally with the Clintons and the Obamas and Bruce Springsteen.
Anyway, Donald Trump earlier today told supporters he`s going to win Michigan, a state, as he said, that hasn`t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988 anyway.
But Hillary Clinton`s pushing hard to defend her advantage in Michigan, another Rust Belt state, if you will, like this one of Pennsylvania. Earlier today, President Obama, Hillary Clinton`s top surrogate, made a direct appeal to Michiganders.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: So, to every autoworker on the assembly line right here in Michigan, to every small business owner, every barkeep, every teacher in communities that depend on the auto industry, I think I have earned some credibility here.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: Plants that were closing when I took office are working double shift now.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: The auto industry has record sales. I think I have earned some credibility here.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: Manufacturing jobs have grown at the fastest rate since the `90s, when another Clinton was president. I think we have earned some credibility here.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: So, when I tell you that Donald Trump is not the guy who`s going to look out for you, you need to listen. Do not be bamboozled.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
For more on Donald Trump`s blue state pickup plan, I`m joined by former Michigan Governor and Hillary Clinton supporter Jennifer Granholm, and also John Brabender, Republican strategist.
Thank you, Governor, for joining us.
Let`s talk about Michigan.
It has an appeal. It has appealed in the past to anger. Back in `72, before you were in office, the state Democratic voters voted for George Wallace in that primary back then. Trump seems to be appealing to that kind of anger. What are his chances?
JENNIFER GRANHOLM (D), FORMER MICHIGAN GOVERNOR: No way.
Do not be bamboozled, as the president said. He was wright right on the money. This president and Hillary Clinton, who supported him, saved the auto industry. There`s clearly an element in Michigan -- and I believe it strongly -- who`s against these unfettered trade agreements without enforcement of them.
She`s got a plan to do that. And, in fact, Chris, there was just a poll out that shows that people trust her more on trade than trust Donald Trump. I know he`s sort of, you know, throwing darts against the board and hoping that something sticks. It`s not going to stick in Michigan.
What do you think appealed to him out there? Is it just desperation? Because everybody thought a couple of week -- maybe a week ago, a few days ago, his root north was like Robert E. Lee`s. He`s going up through Pennsylvania. He was going to hit Pennsylvania, take it away from the Democrats. What sent him off to Michigan? Desperation? What do you think?
GRANHOLM: Yes. I mean, I think it`s desperation, and, of course, that Bernie Sanders had victory in the primary here based upon a message that was about jobs and trade.
But she has taken that back. Her whole 100-day plan is about jobs and making sure we renegotiate NAFTA, so that we create jobs in America. So, I just think that he`s hoping for something, but it`s not going to fly. In fact, Chris, the early ballots that come through in Michigan -- we don`t have early in-person voting, but we have absentee voting. And the Democrats are up 50,000 votes in just those absentee votes.
I think it`s going to be a good -- I think it`s going to be a really good day for Michigan tomorrow.
MATTHEWS: Well, Governor, it`s great to have you on. Stay with us.
President Obama also took Trump to task out there for previous calls to let the auto industry go bankrupt. That was not a smart move by Trump, and he`s going to pay for it tomorrow. Let`s watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: Since we`re in Michigan, take a look what he said about the auto industry. Now, remember, when I came into office, the industry was flat on its back. And we made some tough decisions.
Just last summer, Donald Trump said you could have let it go bankrupt, frankly.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Wow.
He said squeeze Michigan. Make Michigan hurt. Then your autoworkers would have no choice but to accept less pay.
That`s not somebody who`s a champion for working people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: John Brabender, your thoughts about these two states, the one I`m in right now, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. What`s Trump up to? What`s your history tell you about his chances?
JOHN BRABENDER, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, I think there`s a couple of things going on.
First of all, I don`t know how we can say it`s desperate. If it was desperate, why are they sending all the reinforcements on the Democrat side? Why is Obama there if the Democrats think it`s not in play? Why are they sending him to Pennsylvania if they think it`s not in play? They`re certainly worried about something.
Number two is, the one thing people know about these two particular states is that there`s a lot of people who feel they have been left on the economic battlefield. They`re the sons and daughters of Reagan Democrats who sometimes vote Republican. And I believe that Donald Trump actually has struck a chord with these people.
We see a state like Pennsylvania, where 75,000 Democrats switched over to the Republican Party to vote for Donald Trump in the primary. These are votes that Mitt Romney could not have got four years ago. And Donald Trump seems to be getting them.
Plus, it`s only the route for Donald Trump to go, I believe. If he can`t win in Michigan, if he can`t win in Pennsylvania...
MATTHEWS: OK. We`re looking at all these states.
Governor, Governor, I want you to go back to the map. And then I will go back to John.
Governor, you take a look at the map right now. You have got it in your head, I know. He`s got a very good shot in Ohio. He`s got an excellent shot in Iowa. He`s got a troubling situation in Florida because the Hispanic vote down there, it`s hard to pick that. He also has to win -- he has to win North Carolina.
But then he has to win somewhere in a big industrial state, Michigan or Pennsylvania. Which one would you go to if you were him? Not Michigan?
GRANHOLM: I just -- I mean...
MATTHEWS: Or would you just tell him to give up?
GRANHOLM: I would -- honestly, I would say, you better shore up Ohio, if nothing else.
But I`m not advising Donald Trump. But I do know -- to John`s point about why he`s there, I mean, he`s there because, in Michigan, in Pennsylvania, and in New Hampshire, they don`t all have these great early in-person voting. And so, of course, they`re going to go to the battleground states where there is not in-person voting, so they can shore up their strengths.
And, by the way, I don`t think Ohio, I don`t think he`s got a great shot at winning Ohio. I think the numbers that have come in from early voting, especially once people were able to vote, recognizing that there was some shutting down of polls a week early, but I think that Ohio may be a surprise for people tomorrow.
MATTHEWS: Well, it`s too late to make a bet, a gentleman`s bet anyway. But you may be right. Anyway, you know your stuff.
Thank you, Jennifer Granholm, from the state of Michigan, predicting that Donald Trump will not win Ohio.
We will hold you to that bet.
MATTHEWS: John Brabender, you got a tough road to hoe, a tough road to hoe.
Up next, we await Hillary Clinton`s rally here in Philadelphia with the president, the first lady, Bruce Springsteen, Jon Bon Jovi. And we thought we were going to have the vice president, too, but they got a lot of people. It looks like 20,000 people there right behind me.
You`re watching a special edition of HARDBALL from the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. You ought to visit this place.
We will be right back.
CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Welcome back to HARDBALL.
You`re looking right now at a live picture from Philadelphia where Hillary Clinton has just arrived for her big rally here with her husband, Bill Clinton, her daughter Chelsea. Also, the first lady of the United States is coming here and the president. Also going to see John Bon Jovi, the entertainer, the singer, and keep forgetting, Bruce Springsteen, how can you forget that?
After hitting eight different states in the last 48 hours, Donald Trump is tonight in New Hampshire right now before heading to his final rally in Michigan where he`ll close out his campaign for president.
I`m joined right now by NBC`s Katy Tur who`s awaiting Trump at his Manchester event.
Katy, I don`t know what Trump was saying in Scranton, but it seemed to be a lot of stuff, sundry stuff without coherence to it. What`s he saying to the voters right now?
KATY TUR, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, he`s saying, basically, I`ve said all I need to say and it`s in your hand, but he`s going out and he`s claiming that he`s going to do well among African-American and Latino voters basically because he`s say he`s going to do well. The campaign really hasn`t done that much outreach to minority communities.
They`re also trying to talk about these e-mails, talking about corruption. He`s talking about, you know, how the FBI could not have gone through 650,000 e-mails, it`s just not possible. It`s a talking point we`re hearing from a number of Trump surrogates and from the campaign right now, even though there`s technology to do that.
Basically, he`s trying to I guess leave it on the table going into the final stretch. He`s going in and at time, he is hitting some favorite themes. He`s talking about the wall. He`s talking about a ban of some sort. Although he`s not saying specifically a Muslim ban any longer, more like an extremist ban. But he`s hitting five states, Chris, five states that he absolutely needs to win in Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, where I am right now, and Michigan, because he`s got to find a way to turn a blue state red.
Now, in the Upper Midwest, what the campaign will say to you is they believe their jobs message is breaking through to African-Americans, breaking across all demographics because that matters more than anything else. We`re going to find out if that strategy works come tomorrow, but what I can tell you about New Hampshire, specifically where I am right now, is that the internal polling in this state, a couple of days ago showed Trump neck and neck with Hillary Clinton. And also, about running a nearly as well as Kelly Ayotte is.
So, they`re certainly hopeful in this state they`re going to be able to pull it off, but they`re not making any concrete predictions right now. They say the vote here in New Hampshire is just too independent to predict one way of the other. You can hear this crowd behind me, Chris. They are obviously very enthusiastic. They`re screaming "lock her up, lock her up, lock her up", also, "build that wall".
And one quick I guess fun fact, you could call it, last time Donald Trump was in this arena was the day before the New Hampshire primary, which he won by a large margin. A woman in the crowd screamed out "Ted Cruz is a p- word", and Donald Trump repeated it. It`s the first time we heard the p- word on the trail. And, of course, we ended up hearing it quite a bit more few months later.
MATTHEWS: Thanks so much, Katy Tur, up in New Hampshire with the -- well, we`ll see what we`re seeing tomorrow morning.
Let`s bring in the HARDBALL round table tonight.
Maria, why don`t we spell it right this time. Panaritis with "Philadelphia Inquirer" and James Peterson and professor at Lehigh University, which is not too far from here, and Howard Fineman of Colgate, as MSNBC political analyst, and global editorial director of the "Huffington Post."
Thank you, Maria.
Let me ask you something we haven`t really got into -- women voters in the suburbs. Ed Rendell, the former governor of this state, everybody`s talking about the role the women are going to play tomorrow morning.
MARIA PANARITIS, PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER: Yes, in particular, the college educated women of the suburbs of Philadelphia, which combine with the city of Philadelphia, as you well know, deliver a quarter of all votes in presidential election in this very important swing state. They are shown poll after poll to be very much in favor of Hillary Clinton`s candidacy and I`m not entirely --
MATTHEWS: There they are, we`re watching them. The president, former president and well, I was going to say first lady, but the former secretary of state now, her latest --
PANARITIS: And it`s not entirely clear, the extent to which they will support her only if they`re Democrat. I think in fact, I heard just today earlier in a conversation that I had a party chief here in the suburb, the Republican Party chief, he`s worried. He knows a lot of moderate sort of old school Pennsylvania Republican women who are not sure they can bite the bullet at the top of the ticket.
MATTHEWS: How much secret --
PANARITIS: They don`t love Donald Trump.
MATTHEWS: How much secret marital division`s going to go on out there?
PANARITIS: That`s a really good question. I`d love to be a fly on the wall.
MATTHEWS: Maybe they won`t talk about it. Just go their separate ways.
PANARITIS: You can hope, right?
MATTHEWS: It makes sense to me.
James, you`re thinking about this campaign.
JAMES PETERSON, LEHIGH UNIVERSITY: I mean, so part of it is, remember, we haven`t talked enough about this is the fact this is possibly the first woman president in the history of the United States. So, of course, there are going to be some women who are going to dislike Trump, but I think there are also going to be some women, even on the Republican side, who are acknowledging the history of this moment. We haven`t covered it so much because the Clinton campaign hasn`t pushed the identity politics issue so much. But the reality is, folks, women who step into the voting booth tomorrow are going to be thinking about making history in --
MATTHEWS: OK. Supposed, let`s supposed something that`s not impractical, that Hillary is going to win tomorrow night, right? So, six months, six years, 60 years from now, do you want to be a mother who voted against Hillary Clinton when she ran for president when she does win?
MATTHEWS: When she does win? And say, I voted for this guy named Donald Trump who I can`t quite explain what he said, because he said awful things. But I voted for him. Not Hillary, the first woman president.
How do you explain that to your granddaughter?
HOWARD FINEMAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I think history matters a lot here, Chris. And I think as you say, Hillary herself is down played it right now. But if the results go the right way for her tomorrow night, you`re going to hear a lot of it. But you`re not going to hear any crowing from Hillary Clinton.
I think Hillary Clinton is, let`s give her credit not only for experience and a lot of tough things she`s gone through, but for some wisdom acquired. And I think if she does win and you heard this last night from her, she understands that Donald Trump however crudely has raised a lot of important issues and if his voters are not Donald Trump --
FINEMAN: And her first job is going to be not to crow about the history, she`ll do some of that, but to reach out to those people, if she`s lucky enough to win tomorrow night.
MATTHEWS: OK, thank you. The round table is sticking with us.
Bon Jovi is on the stage right now. You can hear him. You can hear him here, on the air. Clintons have arrived here in Philly, right here as the spot here.
Up next, these three will tell me something about tomorrow`s election I don`t know. By the way, not the Clintons and not Bon Jovi, but these three.
Anyway, this is HARDBALL, the place for politics.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And I`m sure that you do, too.
MATTHEWS: We`re back from Philadelphia now with John Bon Jovi on stage, as we await Hillary Clinton at the big rally tonight, big campaign rally, with some 20,000 people who already there and it keeps growing this crowd right out in front of Independence Hall in Philadelphia, on East Market Street at Fifth.
Anyway, Maria, tell me something I don`t know.
PANARITIS: My colleague just crunched these numbers today. He found that looking, comparing today`s voter registration compared to 2012, same time, we see that there`s been a significantly higher shift to Republicans registered in Metro Pittsburgh versus to Democrats, the increase in Southeast P.A., a big hurdle for Hillary.
PETERSON: Well, there are a lot of young people issues on the ballot initiatives across the nation, like legalization of marijuana, raising the minimum wage, the reality is young people are not engaged in this selection because of the negativity of the political discourse. I`m seeing young people on college campuses around the nation organize efforts, No Labels efforts and different initiatives to bring back civil dialogue in political discourse.
FINEMAN: Here`s what you don`t know -- everybody in my role in journalism right now is writing about how this election has basically destroyed -- or damaged if not destroyed all of the institutions of democracy. Well, I`m here sitting in front of Independence Hall to say whoever wins tonight, that`s not true. This country has endured a whole lot over 240 years and it will survive whoever wins tomorrow night.
MATTHEWS: Good for you.
James Peterson, thank you -- Maria Panaritis, and Howard Fineman.
When we can return, my election diary for this final night of the presidential campaign. Stay tuned.
MATTHEWS: Election Diary November 7th 2016.
My father loved to tell the story of the man banging his head with a hammer. Asked why he was doing such a thing, he said, because it feels so good when I stop. To a lot of Americans and to a lot of our friends overseas, this election has been extremely painful. Even if they don`t like Donald Trump, they haven`t had much fun watching him struggle. Even if they don`t like Hillary Clinton, they`ve gotten a little tired of Trump saying crooked Hillary a dozen times a day.
We`ve gotten used to local politicians being like this, watching TV ads featuring old yellow newspaper clips and a macabre voice alerting us to some vote congressman or woman had cast because the leaders from the other party had contrived some bobby trap for their opponents to get caught up in.
But this is a presidential election. We`re just now getting through. And by midnight, we may be clear from the most destructive campaign of its kind. At least as far back as we can remember.
I`ll blame it on Trump. I don`t deny he`s raised some powerfully vital issues, uncontrolled immigration, loss of our manufacturing base, bad wars -- but that doesn`t justify the way in which he`s conducted himself in this campaign. You don`t elevate democracy by degrading your opponents, calling them "Lyin` Ted", "Low energy Bush", "Little Marco" or "Crooked Hillary".
Tomorrow night, it will all be over. But there will be casualties. One will be a delusion you can win a presidential campaign by kissing off a quarter of the vote at the start. That`s what Trump did with this birther propaganda about our first African-American president, and with calling immigrants from Mexico rapists and murders.
The other casualty will be the moderate East Coast Republican Party I grew up with. There is a distinct possibility that tomorrow night will end with a single Republican senator in the entire Northeast United States. It will end with a Republican Party entirely confined to the South, the plain states and the Rocky Mountains west and the Democratic Party hugging the two coasts.
We may need a high-speed rail system across this country as a first step towards uniting us the way the old rail system did when Lincoln built it. What we will most need, however, starting November 9th, is a president determined to save this union the way Lincoln did.
And that`s HARDBALL for now. Thanks for being with us.
"ALL IN WITH CHRIS HAYES" starts right now.
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