CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC HOST: And that`s HARDBALL for now. Thanks for being with us. "ALL IN" with Chris Hayes starts right now.
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CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST: Tonight on ALL IN.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I`ve heard that he`s coming Wednesday but I`ve not gotten a call. And you know, he might be going to Toledo, I don`t know.
HAYES: Ohio and Texas prepare for the president.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: From my perspective, he is not welcome here.
HAYES: Tonight, Texas Congresswoman Veronica Escobar on why she says the president isn`t welcome in El Paso. And Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown on why he`s looking for an apology from Donald Trump. Then --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If you use the term "it`s an invasion," that`s not anti-Hispanic, it`s a fact.
HAYES: Inside the President`s feedback loop online and on Trump T.V.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We are being invaded.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It is an invasion.
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We have a country that`s being invaded.
HAYES: Plus, new warning signs for Republicans as another congressman calls it quits, and how the man who bankrupted his casinos is gambling with the world economy like never before.
TRUMP: I think it`s going to be a tremendous success.
HAYES: When ALL IN starts right now.
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HAYES: Good evening from New York, I`m Chris Hayes. Two American cities are reeling in the aftermath of two horrifying massacres. One of those clearly motivated by political violence perpetrated by someone who wrote a manifesto echoing the president`s language in immigration who murdered 22 people in an El Paso Walmart, the other by a shooter whose own personal politics appear to be on the left, but whose motives for the act seem utterly inexplicable as of yet, but who was able to kill nine people in just 30 seconds outside a popular bar in Dayton, Ohio with this uniquely American piece of civilian armament.
And we have a president who many of the people in these two communities just do not want to hear from. And can you blame them? For some reason, Donald Trump will visit both cities tomorrow. And let`s remember, six months ago, President Trump was in El Paso, one of the safest cities in the country, a city that celebrates and loves and is proud of its immigrant community that is profoundly to its very core by national, where residents flow freely across the Mexican border to the sister city of Juarez.
And while he was there, President Trump used the opportunity to demagogue about the border and lie about life in that city, claiming the wall was the only thing keeping the city safe, demonizing the very people who live in that binational community. He was met with protesters and he left having used the city as a stunt backdrop to pursue his brand of demagoguery.
His campaign was sold to pay the police and the fire department for their hard work securing the rally in that city and instead the president left behind a still unpaid $470,000 which was increased to nearly $570,000 thanks to late fees.
What possibly could this man say to the people of El Paso, to the families of the dead and the injured and the people that loved them? Eight of the dead are Mexican nationals. Some of the victims are of mixed immigration status. What is he going to say to them?
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UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: How do you feel about the president coming in the next few days even in the midst of this mourning period and into El Paso?
REP. VERONICA ESCOBAR (D-TX): Until the president takes ownership and peels that target off our back, and re-humanizes communities like mine, it`s not appropriate I think. It`s -- we have a lot of work to do in this country, and we do need to do it together, but there needs to be ownership first of the power of words, and the most powerful words come from the most powerful man in the country.
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HAYES: And President Trump doesn`t seem much more welcome in Dayton which he referred to as Toledo yesterday. In Dayton, the shooter`s motives are more obscure. There are reports that he heard voices, that he had misogynist obsessions, that he scared people in his circle with their thoughts of what he might do.
He described his own politics as leftist though as of yet there are no indications this was in any way an explicitly political act. And in this case, it`s not like anyone`s putting the blame right at Trump`s feet, but the shooter did use a weapon with this magazine to kill nine people and injure 27 more in half a minute. And the president and his party have been covering for the people who manufacture these weapons.
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MAYOR NAN WHALEY (D), DAYTON, OHIO: I`m disappointed with his remarks. I mean, I think they both fell really short. He mentioned like gun issues one time. I think you know, watching the president over the past few years on the issues of guns, he`s been -- I don`t know if he knows what he believes, frankly.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You`re going to tell him how unhelpful he`s been?
WHALEY: Look, I mean, if I`m telling you, I`m going to tell him. I`m -- I probably will hear from you all, better than he hears it from me.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What are you going to tell him?
WHALEY: Like how unhelpful he`s been on this. I mean, yesterday, his comments weren`t very helpful to the issue around guns.
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HAYES: Yesterday, President Obama issued a statement condemning leaders who use language that normalizes racist sentiments. He didn`t name names. He didn`t have to. Today, Trump retweeted a Trump T.V. host asking, did George Bush ever condemned President Obama after Sandy Hook?
Because President Obama and President Trump and the people at Trump T.V. all know that Trump is the guy who demonizes those who don`t look like us, suggests other people including immigrants threaten our way of life, refers to other people as subhuman, implies that America belongs to just one certain type of people. Everyone knows who is being talked about there.
There`s this vortex, this sucking moral vacuum at the top of the country. There`s been since the moment Donald Trump took the oath of office. It`s unavoidable that all of us see that, even feel it viscerally particularly in the wake of something like this.
Joining me now Democratic Congresswoman Veronica Escobar who represents El Paso. Congresswoman, I want to ask first how people are doing there. Are there folks still in the hospital? Do people have the resources they need to process what happened, to heal medically, financially, how are things?
ESCOBAR: Hi, Chris. Thank you so much for asking. I`ve spent the day with El Paso families in the hospital here at this beautiful memorial, and folks are doing better. I visited with a gentleman in the ICU who is doing a lot better. His caregivers have told us that that he`s strong, he`s on the mend/
I talked to another young woman, Jessica, who I visited on Sunday who it was very painful for her to walk. The -- her legs were shot. And as you know, with these kinds of weapons of war, the bullets don`t just go through your flesh and your bones, it shatters them. That`s the whole point of a weapon of war.
And so both her legs were shot through and I was with her when she took her first steps on Sunday, and she was in a lot of emotional and physical pain. Today, I went by and visited her again, and she had this beautiful smile on her face, and she`s been walking a little bit more and she`s full of hope.
Her husband is doing better. He`s also in the hospital. She got to see her kids. This community is full of hope, and resilience, and beauty. But the other thing that I heard, Chris, totally unsolicited from victims still in the hospital as they`ve grabbed my arm and tell me, tell him not to come here.
HAYES: That`s intense. You`ve communicated that message. You said that you feel like he painted a target on El Paso`s back. I`ve heard from a lot of folks and read a lot of stories about folks, Latin folks all across the country, folks who were immigrants of different ethnic backgrounds feeling like a targets painted on their back. What -- why don`t you want him to come?
ESCOBAR: You know, Chris, here`s the -- I just talked to another gentleman, Ralph, a veteran, Vietnam veteran who stopped me and he said I am being made to feel like I`m not American. And he feels that under this president.
And so as I said to the -- you know, via Twitter and I`ve said before, words are powerful, and words have consequences. And the words that he`s used to dehumanize us, to dehumanize communities like mine, to dehumanize immigrants, they have a consequence and they provide fuel for people who already are bigoted.
And when they have a president who`s racist and whips people up into a frenzy at rallies, when people yell "we`ll shoot them" and he doesn`t -- he doesn`t stop to think, oh my God, what am I doing. There`s such a moral crisis.
And you know, we got a call from the White House earlier inviting us to be part of the motorcade as the president arrived and to greet him, and you know, my response back was I need a phone call today because I would like to have a conversation with the president about everything I`ve been saying on national T.V. I want to say it to him directly.
And I want to see if he would have a dialogue where he accepts responsibility for his words, where he understands the power that they`ve had, the pain they`ve created, and says I`m sorry, and takes them back. Those words are still hanging above us. There are kids who are still afraid this is going to happen again.
He has the power to take them back. The response we got was that he was too busy for a phone call so we declined the motorcade.
HAYES: You wrote a letter today. You`re a part of several members of Congress who wrote a letter to Speaker Pelosi asking that she bring everyone back to the U.S. Capitol to take some action legislatively to confront the threat of white supremacy. Why did you sign that letter? What do you want to see happen?
ESCOBAR: So my colleague Tom Malinowski led that letter. And you know, first and foremost, the first line on that letter that you`ll see is that Senator Mitch McConnell already has good common-sense bipartisan gun legislation sitting at his doorstep.
Mitch McConnell, we need to make sure that he is held accountable. We need to make sure that that we demand answers from him as to why this tragedy hasn`t been enough. When will enough be enough? We`re all ready to go back to D.C. at any point in time, even me.
I don`t want to leave my grieving community but if Senator McConnell is ready to get to work, we will all be ready to get back to work and we`ll keep sending him great legislation. But he is the linchpin here, Chris. I mean, make no mistake about it. And people need to hold him accountable.
HAYES: Congresswoman, I just want to say I`ve been -- I had the great pleasure to be in El Paso twice in just the last eight months or so, and it`s just a truly special place. It`s really one-of-a-kind and everybody is really sending you their love and their strength in that community. It`s a really special place indeed that you represent.
ESCOBAR: Thank you. It really is. Thank you, Chris.
HAYES: All right, Congresswoman Veronica Escobar, thanks a lot. Joining me now is Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Senator, I want to start the same question to you. How are the people of Dayton in your state doing? Do they have what they need in terms of financial resources and mental health resources, and medical resources to heal from and process what happened?
SEN. SHERRON BROWN (D-OH): I`m not clear yet. It`s clear though that the community is just rallied around everybody. And the police were heroes. Six police officers stopped this killer from killing many, many, many more people because they responded so quickly with such great courage.
I`ve talked -- I was -- Connie and I were in Dayton on Sunday for most of the afternoon and talked to people who had -- who were the first for some of the -- we didn`t talk to first responders, they were not there. They are -- there are talking to other people now.
But the first responders, people that have watched this have talked about how it`s really like triage and war where first responders have to make such quick decisions, who can you save and who can`t you save, even with all of the family members and close friends and partners of the people who had been shot standing nearby begging them for help, so all of that kind of trauma
And I talked to Mayor Whaley again just a couple hours ago, in Dayton -- Mayor of Dayton, and people really rallied around the whole community. The Dayton Community Foundation is -- people are giving money to them. That`s important to help these families that have survived and the families who have lost people and those who are injured to get some kind of help.
But I don`t -- I don`t know that there are state or federal resources there the way there should be. I have not been at all thrilled with the way state government and the federal government have responded to this from the president to the state legislature.
HAYES: When you say that, what do you -- what do you mean?
BROWN: Well, I mean, first of all, that the president -- you know, the first things the president -- first, the state legislature in Ohio has been absolutely terrible in gun violence issues. There is -- the governor is now proposing some things that that who knows what the state legislature will do.
We know what Mitch McConnell hasn`t done. We know what this -- we know the racist divisive rhetoric from this president. People in Dayton don`t feel like they have allies in the White House for sure. So people are -- people are looking for leadership.
They`re absolutely getting it from Nan Whaley, the mayor. They -- we`ll see if they`re getting it from other places they need to get it from.
HAYES: Let me ask you then. I just talked to Veronica Escobar who represents El Paso and she talked about the exchange she had with the president. She wanted a phone call to tell him what his rhetoric has meant to her community.
And obviously there`s a little bit of a difference here in terms of that was clearly a political act, it was motivated by a kind of rhetoric the president has trafficking himself. It`s a -- it`s a different situation in your -- in your state in terms of what we know about what happened. But I will ask you, you are going to meet with the president tomorrow. Why are you going to meet with him and what do you want to talk about?
BROWN: Well, I listened to Congresswoman Escobar who is compelling and I guess, seven short months and us in the Congress, she`s already become a national leader on this issue and other things and I appreciate her passion about in fighting for people in El Paso.
It`s a bit different situation in Ohio. But I talked to the mayor -- again, I said I talked to mayor earlier this evening. She wants me to come and be with her and I want to talk to the president. I want to say to the president, you talk about mental health. If you care about mental health, don`t cut Medicaid. Don`t repeal the Affordable Care Act.
And I`m going to say to the president first how important it is that he call in Senator McConnell as I did on Sunday. He called on Senator McConnell to bring the Senate back into session, that the president tell McConnell to pass the background check bill, and the president promise to the American people and to McConnell that he will sign that bill.
And I`m going to ask the president that. I, if given a chance, talk to him about the assault weapons ban. This was -- this killer in 30 seconds just charged more than 40 bullets. He had probably another hundred he could have discharged -- without the heroism of the police, so many would have died because of this weapon.
And police officers all over the country will tell you that civilians shouldn`t have weapons like this. These are weapons made for war. You don`t hunt with them. You don`t protect your home with them. You kill people in large numbers in a short period of time with these weapons and they don`t belong in the hands of any civilian.
HAYES: Is you -- is there any part of you having work with Mitch McConnell who has batted away this idea that thinks that he`s subject to pressure on this?
BROWN: Well, I think every -- yes, he`s subject to pressure if enough. Republican senators tell him that. He`s trying to protect his majority. He`s trying to protect this president. He fronts for this president all the time. He may be uncomfortable doing it but that`s really -- that`s really irrelevant. He continues to do it.
He thinks Trump -- if Trump wins he can keep his majority in the Senate. I think he thinks if Trump losses, he loses his majority, and it`s always about power to Mitch McConnell. It`s always about tax cuts to the Republican majority. It`s about deregulation of environmental and worker rights, and it`s about right-wing extremists young judges.
That`s what they do all day. That`s what they work towards. That`s what Trump gives them. That`s what McConnell is trying to protect. So it`ll have to be pressure from his own members of the Senate.
HAYES: All right, Senator Sherrod Brown, again, everyone is sending all their love and their strength to the folks in Dayton. Thanks a lot.
BROWN: Thank you, Chris.
HAYES: Next, inside the dangerous and dehumanizing language peddled by Trump T.V., the vicious feedback loop between the president and his favorite channel in two minutes.
HAYES: Today we got an even sharper sense of just how much the Trump campaign has cultivated the dehumanizing language of invasion to describe immigrants. It`s the very same language the suspected mass shooter in El Paso used in his manifesto before committing murder.
New York Times reporting that "since January, Trump`s re-election campaign has posted more than two thousand ads on Facebook that include the word invasion, part of a barrage of advertising focused on immigration.
This is what those ads look like. But it is always the case with Trump, his message exists in seamless continuity with the message of Trump T.V. which has been banging this drum into the heads of its audience for years.
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UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Then your state has been completely overrun by this legal invasion. I think calling anything but an invasion at this point is just not being honest with people.
TOM HOMAN, FORMER ACTING DIRECTOR, ICE: Look, this is this invasion of our sovereignty is -- it`s -- we`ve got to stop it.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This isn`t just a migrant caravan, this is an invasion. And every American watching what`s going on should be infuriated.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It is a full-scale invasion by a hostile force.
SEAN HANNITY, HOST, FOX NEWS: Thousands upon thousands of migrants literally marching to the U.S. of what would be a mass invasion.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People need to realize that we need border security because people coming across our border illegally, it`s an invasion.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We are being invaded. We`re being invaded by a bunch of people that are -- that has the potential here to totally destroy the makeup of our culture and the makeup of our society.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It`s not immigration, it`s not refugees, it`s an invasion.
TUCKER CARLSON, HOST, FOX NEWS: What about our country? We`re being invaded.
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HAYES: Well, the host of Trump`s favorite morning show even doubled down on that rhetoric this very morning.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What the president has during his two-and-a-half years is a major problem at the border. If you use the term as an invasion, that`s not anti-Hispanic, it`s a fact.
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HAYES: Joining me now Alicia Menendez, co-host of Amanpour & Company on PBS, Contributing Editor at Bustle and Angelo Carusone, President at Media Matters which monitors Fox News and other right-wing media outlets.
And Angelo, just to start with you. I mean, I`m not going to quote this manifesto because screw that, but it is just what -- we just play it, like there`s essentially no distance in the basic thesis here and that -- as you guys have shown, has been a staple of Fox programming for four years now.
ANGELO CARUSONE, PRESIDENT, MEDIA MATTERS: Yes. I mean, there`s a straight line from these chants and some of these other message boards right through to Donald Trump and his campaign`s messaging and communications and that line goes right through Fox News.
And as a thought experiment, just to underscore your point, if you took that screen, that manifesto and you put it in a Fox host teleprompter like Tucker Carlson, or Ingraham, or Hannity, and they were to read this on air, the audience would not be shocked or surprised or disturbed. And that should -- that tells you all that you need to know.
I mean if it was so inconsistent with what they were hearing every single night, there would be a different reaction. But the audience would be perfectly fine with it because that`s what they`re used to.
HAYES: Yes, I`m simply defending my country from cultural and ethnic replacement brought on by an invasion. This sort of idea of replaced, I want to play a clip of Tucker Carlson talking about that, Alicia, and get your response to it. Take a listen.
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CARLSON: Democrats know if they keep up the flood of illegals into the country, they can eventually turn it into a flood of voters for them. Their political success does not depend on good policies but on demographic replacement and they`ll do anything to make sure it happens.
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HAYES: This is a point that`s hammered home night after night.
ALICIA MENENDEZ, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, BUSTLE: And it`s been a subtext of the immigration debate. For years it`s now just very much in the mainstream. I mean, let`s break down what invasion means. An invasion denotes a threat, it denotes no danger, it denotes a need to protect yourself.
The irony as you know, Chris, is that most of these immigrants are coming here to escape violence in their home country. They`re coming to the United States for safety, in many cases seeking asylum in this country. So it`s absolutely absurd to connote that this is in some way an invasion. And it has real consequences. That`s part of what we saw in El Paso, right.
We know that that gunman drove to El Paso with the express intent of fighting an invasion. He allegedly cased the place looking for Mexicans to kill so there is a very clear line here from one to the other.
HAYES: There`s something in sort of white nationalist circles called replacement theory, right, the grave replacement. That this is -- and this is something the Pittsburgh synagogue murderer pointed to that basically, the caravan was a Jewish conspiracy to replace you. What is that idea, Angelo, and how much has that been fanatically enforced by Trump T.V.
CARUSONE: So the great replacement theory in a nutshell is that the Jewish people are replacing white Americans with foreigners, in this case, immigrants from the border -- from south of the border. And they use all kinds of code on Fox News. Sometimes they straight up say replacement, the great replacement. Tucker has used that language before.
Other times they focus in on an individual like George Soros. So there were periods of time especially in last October prior to the midterms where the caravan was a big theme, there was all these warnings about how George Soros was financing it all. So he becomes a proxy or they use the broader term of globalist which is a codeword for Jews.
But at the end of the day, what they`re really getting to is that this force is out there sort of engineering this replacement, and you know -- I mean, we`ve had -- if we`ve -- if you just use the most narrowed search, we found more than 125 instances and discussions around just using the word invasion alone.
If you expand that out to include great replacement theory and other sort of similar you know, examples of that, it`s in the hundreds on Fox News. So to put a point on that, the urgency then gets created. You have all these people organizing on the chants, and then Fox is validating that theory that you have to do something right now because you`re at great risk, at threat, and nobody else is doing anything about it. It makes you feel like you`re the hero.
HAYES: Alicia, you were just nodding your head.
MENENDEZ: I mean, the perversity of this is that these words lead you to believe that the threat is coming from outside, right, that the threat is at our southern border. And part of what that does is it distracts from the reality of the danger of right-wing extremism inside our own country. 2018 more people killed by right-wing extremists than any year since 1995 when Timothy McVeigh wreaked havoc on the city of Oklahoma City.
So that is what -- we`re our attention should be. That`s where the real danger is and this is just a big distraction.
HAYES: Final point, Angelo. You know, there`s -- on the right, there they`re looking at the Twitter feed of the alleged shooter in Dayton who called himself leftist, who tweeted supporting things about Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren who sort of part of a scene that had kind of leftist politics in terms of his band. What is the distinction to you between what we see in El Paso and what we see in there?
CARUSONE: So when ideology is a motivating distinction, there`s a lot that you can do in terms of addressing the structure. So in El Paso, a big part of this was the conversation, the misinformation of the individual was consuming the radicalization that that individual experienced. And it`s a very different paradigm because it can be -- it can be amplified and intensified. And Brian Kilmeade underscored that.
And one of those clips, that clip where he said that it is an invasion, it`s a fact, that was from this morning.
CARUSONE: I mean, that`s -- they`ve planted a marker here. So one, that is an indication that that problem is only going to get worse unless you address the root cause. In this case, it`s the radicalization.
In Dayton, it`s an entirely different thing, but there`s one connective tissue, misogyny. And that`s a very important part about this. Not all of the neat things fit within the left-right partisan political ideology. I think they`re very different, but one is really part of a deeper, larger structural pattern as Alicia sort of pointed out before.
HAYES: Alicia Menendez and Angelo Carusone, thank you both for being with me.
CARUSONE: Thank you.
HAYES: Next, the growing fear as the President`s trade war with China could push the global economy into a disaster.
HAYES: Given the appalling violence the last three day, you would be forgiven for maybe missing the fact the president has almost single- handedly brought the global economy to the precipice of genuine disaster.
First, late last week, Donald Trump announced new tariffs on a broad range of Chinese goods, starting in September, the latest escalation in the president`s trade war. And it did not go over well in China. The Chinese then retaliated by cutting off U.S. farm imports. And then just yesterday, the Trump administration struck back labeling China as a currency manipulator, which is an extremely provocative move.
And while we wait to see who is going to blink first, China has made it very clear they do not intend to back down. The editor-in-chief of The Global Times, which is part of China`s state controlled media tweeted today in English, quote, "whether or not there will be negotiations, China will not yield to Washington`s hegemony. We`re prepared for new U.S. tariffs."
Yesterday you might have noticed the stock markets absolutely tanked, the steepest drop of the year. The worst day in 2019, though they did rebound a bit today.
Now all kinds of people are starting to rush to pull the train brake and ring the alarm about the dangers all this poses to both the U.S. and global economy, including American farmers who have been on the front lines of this trade war. One North Dakota soy bean farmer told Yahoo News, quote, "this is just another nail in the coffin."
And all this news led former Clinton-era Treasury secretary Larry Summers to tweet, quote, "we may well be at the most dangerous financial moment since the 2009 financial crisis with current developments between the U.S. and China.
Here with me now to dissect what`s going on Josh Barro, business columnist at New York Magazine, who has been writing about the U.S./China trade war and Donald Trump.
So, I`m always sort of trying to figure out how freaked out, how not freaked out.
JOSH BARRO, NEW YORK MAGAZINE: Yeah, you and everybody else.
HAYES: Yeah, exactly.
BARRO: Yeah, I mean, to the extent this remains just a matter of sort of trading tariffs and, you know, modest movements in currencies, it`s not the sort of thing that we should expect to cause a recession. It is the sort of thing we should expect to have a negative effect on economic growth.
I mean, for the last two years, the trade war has been sort of background noise. I mean, Trump was doing this, but the tariffs weren`t on that many things. And most of the U.S. economy is services or goods produced for U.S. domestically, and not all the imports come from China, so it just wasn`t hitting that much of the economy, so you would sort of add it up and that might take a tenth of a point off GDP growth, which it matters, but you`re not going to notice it in the sea of all the other things that affect the economy.
But as the swath of things that are subject to the tariffs gets bigger and the tariff rates get higher, you start pushing towards something that full- on trade war, you might think, you know, maybe half a point, a point off GDP growth. That still should leave you with positive economic growth, but much less than you have.
The problem is what sort of knock-on effects you can have when these wars go in unpredictable directions. And so, the market really freaked out when the Chinese currency started moving very early on Monday. And the funny thing about this is the president says they`re a currency manipulator. What China did is they stopped manipulating.
HAYES: They stopped it, exactly.
B ARRO: China, we had this conversation back in 2012 when Mitt Romney was saying I"m going to name them a currency manipulator. And at that time the Chinese had really been pushing their currency down in order to support exports. It was true. It was unfair competition with American manufacturers. That story is seven years old. They haven`t been doing that anymore. They`ve change their strategy and in fact they have been pushing the currency up, except they stopped briefly. And I think it was sort of a threat.
BARRO: It was see what will happen if we stop doing this? And then -- but then they came back today and they set new guidance. And so everyone is oh, it broke through seven. There is more than 70 yuan to a dollar. So now it`s like at 7.03. And it doesn`t seem to be moving more than that.
And the Chinese have their own domestic reasons why they might not want to devalue the currency, but it shows we can do this thing and it will wreak havoc on the U.S. stock market and who knows what it will mean. You know, it`s not just China, it has big effects on South Korea, Japan. You could have a big mess in the global trading situation that would have really additional negative economic effects there and here and a lot of other places.
HAYES: Yeah, what I`m hearing from you, and the is the actual economic effects at each level are manageable.
HAYES: It`s the game theory problem.
HAYES: Of like these two players who are going back and forth, the same way like a skirmish at a border, right, like an actual physical war, you don`t know when someone is going to do things that blow things up and then other people get pulled into it, and then you`re looking at real genuine disaster, which we should note, like there have been tariff-led mercantalist, cascading disasters before. That`s a thing that has happened.
BARRO: Yeah, but the thing that pushes back on that on the flip side is that almost all of these things are really bad for both the U.S. and China.
HAYES: But so are physical wars, often, almost always.
BARRO: Right, but most of the time we avoid going to physical war. I mean, most of the time the two countries have a strong incentive to avoid a war, they don`t -- it doesn`t work perfectly, but it works most of the time.
Similarly here, I mean, the one thing that is holding this together is that an all-out trade war could be really bad for both the U.S. and China. China is probably even in a worse position than us to manage it economically. The flip side of that is it`s not a democracy, so they have more flexibility to put the public through pain -- not total flexibility, they still care about public opinion, but so I think the president`s theory is I`m going to push harder and harder and harder. We`ve seen news reporting that he basically made this decision alone to do these initial tariffs on $300 billion in goods. And it`s his theory that if he pushes hard enough, they`ll have to cave, but I`m not sure that that`s true.
HAYES: We should note that he is also just writing $15 billion worth of checks to farmers to back stop this, which I just want to put this statistic out, because I`ve been meaning to for a few days. The top 1 percent of those payouts are $183,000, and the bottom 80% are less than $5,000. Like, the distribution of those checks is really wild.
And if you`re thinking to yourself, like, oh, the family farmer is getting this check, it`s a large agricultural concern most likely.
Josh Barro, thanks so much.
BARRO: Thank you.
HAYES: Still ahead, the growing problem for Republicans in Texas where members of congress just keep choosing retirement over facing Democrats in 2020. The Texasdus (ph) phenomenon ahead in tonight`s Thing One, Thing Two, starts next.
HAYES: Thing One tonight, out of the awfulness of the past few days came a moment of weird hog-related levity on the Internet. If you`ve been anywhere near social media, you might have noticed that the top trending topic everywhere seemed to be feral hogs, a bizarre turn of events, which began with a tweet from a guy named Willie in Arkansas who added his two cents to the roiling debate over banning assault weapons, quote, "legit question for rural Americans. How do I kill the 30-50 feral hogs that run into my yard within three to five minutes while my small kids play?"
This one question seemed to derail the entire debate, which was not necessarily a bad thing, because instead of everyone angrily fighting about guns it seemed everyone was now confused and obsessed with the 30-50 feral hogs. The tweet went viral. And the memes began.
Here`s President Trump yelling at the kid mowing his lawn, "have you seen my hogs? 30-50 of them."
And there was this Jurassic Park inspired one, "easy, easy."
This was a throwback about how my kids bring all the feral hogs to the yard.
There is always an Oprah version, of course. These here are Pharrell hogs. Apparently they won`t stop singing "Happy."
It wasn`t long before someone developed a feral hogs violent video game, as well, where you, too, can defend your small children from the 30 to 50 feral hogs.
Now, you would be forgiven for assuming that surely the whole feral hogs thing was a big joke. Clearly, the whole thing was in jest. And you would be dead wrong, because people all across this country really are dealing with huge packs of hogs in their yards. And they`re trying all sorts of ways to deal with them. And that`s Thing Two in 60 seconds.
HAYES: So the reaction to the tweet in the middle of the gun debate about what to do about feral hogs might have been hilarious, but the question was not at all a joke. Willie McNabb (ph) says it`s happened several times with no warning, it being 30-50 feral hogs running into his yard within three to five minutes while his small kids play.
And Willie is not alone, there are over six million feral hogs scattered across at least 35 states, according to the Department of Agriculture, and the population is rapidly expanding. At the cost of $1.5 billion a year in damage, the hogs have been known to tear up crop fields searching for food. And while attacks on humans are rare, official says the hogs` sharp tusks and speediness can cause serious injury.
So people have come up with some creative solutions to deal with the problem. In Texas, lawmakers actually passed a porkchopper law, seriously, allowing hunters to pay to shoot feral hogs from helicopters. That turned out to be expensive and not at all that effective, because the hogs are pretty smart. They quickly learned to hide from the loud noise of the choppers.
People have tried hunting from air balloons, silent, but issues likes steering and visibility made that pretty impractical. Texas also tried using pesticides, but abandoned that plan after 200 birds were found dead.
Now, if you`re wondering how in the world we got to this point we can thank, among other factors, yes, climate change. A huge contributor to the situation, because increased temperatures mean more of the animals are surviving through the milder winters and then continuing to multiply year after year.
So we now all add battling giant packs of hogs for control of the planet to our nightmare visions of a climate change future.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Wild hogs are one of the smartest animals on the planet, that`s why it`s so important that we don`t educate these hogs when we remove them.
Feral hogs carry a number of diseases, including tuberculosis, trichinosis, pseudorabies, e. Coli, brucellosis and a few other diseases. That`s why it`s very important to hire a team of professionals to remove these hogs from your property.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Since his campaign, and especially over the last few weeks, the president`s endless stream of bigoted invective, the calls for members of congress to go back to their countries and now the murder in El Paso, has put at the center of our national politics this fundamental question, who is America for? Who gets to be an American? Are we a nation of immigrants or a nation bound by blood and soil?
Suketu Mehta came to the U.S. at the age of 14 from India, and his parents put him into an all boys Catholic school in Queens. In the latest podcast Why is This Happening, he told me about the racist insults and violence he experienced at the hands of the boys at his school who told him to go back to his country.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
SUKETU MEHTA, WRITER: I remember my second day in the school, this white kid with red hair and freckles coming up to me and glaring at me and saying Lincoln should have never let him off the plantation. I said but what`s that got to do with me?
HAYES: Wow, wow, wow.
MEHTA: It was his way of saying welcome to America.
HAYES: That was the opening line? Lincoln never should have let them off the plantation.
HAYES: In New York in 1977?
MEHTA: 1977, exactly. It was...
HAYES: In Queens.
MEHTA: In Queens, home of the current president.
HAYES: That`s right.
Queens that gave us Archie Bunker and Donald Trump.
HAYES: And this boy. And there is a relationship between those three. I mean...
MEHTA: Queens, the most diverse county in the United States statistically, also home of the least diverse human being in the country.
MEHTA: So, but, this is why I feel like I really understand Trump`s makeup, because I grew up in this place where the fathers of the kids I went to at school were essentially Donald Trumps.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
HAYES: Suketu Mehta has written a fantastic new book that has never been more timely. It`s called "This Land is Our Land: an Immigrant`s Manifesto." In our conversation, he talks about being an immigrant here in this country at this moment. It`s essential listing. You can get it wherever you can get your podcasts.
HAYES: Things just keep getting worse for Texas Republicans. Three House Republicans from Texas announced their retirement last week. The most distressing for the GOP being Will Hurd who only eked out his win in 2018 by under 1,000 votes and is only one of three GOP congressmen who represent a district that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.
Hurd had been touted as the future of his party -- former CIA officer, the lone African-American Republican serving in the House, represents 800 miles of border, and now he`s leaving.
And then yesterday, Congressman Kenny Marchant, who represents a suburban Dallas district, announced his plans to retire. Marchant`s retirement is from exactly the kind of district where Republicans fear they are losing their edge the most: metro area suburbs.
Mitt Romney, get this, he won that district by a whopping 22 points in the 2012 presidential election, not real competitive. Four years later, Donald Trump won the district by just six points. And then last year that district went for the Democrat in the senate race, Beto O`Rourke, by 3-and- a-half points when he ran against Ted Cruz.
This is the doomsday scenario for Texas Republicans. And they are continuing to freak out about it.
As Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics writes, "people grossly oversold GOP vulnerability pre-Trump are and grossly underselling it now."
For more on this sea change Texas might represent, I`m joined by Evan Smith, CEO and co-founder of the Texas Tribune, and Brianna Brown, deputy director of the Texas organizing project, a grassroots racial justice organization.
Evan, let me start with you because we`ve had this conversation before. You were someone who for a long time -- and you know Texas politics about as well as anyone -- when there were liberals around the country saying, oh, look at the demographics, just look, it`s going to go blue, it`s going to go blue, saying whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. When people were like, Wendy Davis, you were saying whoa, whoa, whoa. Where are now as you watch what`s happening with these retirements, particularly in these suburban districts?
EVAN SMITH, TEXAS TRIBUNE: I`m still not buying it. I think if you`ve seen one congressional district, you`ve seen one congressional district. I think it would be a mistake -- look, I`ll accept the fact that the optics are terrible for Texas Republicans right now. And by the way, we think there may be as many as two more additional retirements coming any day now, Republican-held seats. There may be two more, taking it up to six. The optics are terrible.
But every one of these districts is different. Not every single one of these retirements has produced a winnable seat for Democrats.
I still don`t think Democrats are necessarily in a position to win the state. I think the senate race is going to be complicated.
So, I think it`s hard to look at this and think, aha, finally the moment is here.
HAYES: Right. I will say, Conaway is not a competitive seat. Of the four that have retired, three look fairly competitive. Conaway, who is the fourth, is not in a competitive district. I think that`s fair to say.
Brianna, the Texas Organizing Project is one of the most interesting groups in the country to me because you guys have put in a lot of work in Texas, and particularly in sort of metro areas, urban/suburban areas. What`s the kind of work you`ve been doing? And what have the results been?
BRIANNA BROWN, DIRECTOR, TEXAS ORGANIZING PROJECT: At TOP we like to say we fight with two fists, right? We fight with people power and political power. And the essence of what we do is really in the linked fates of black and brown folks across this state, we fundamentally believe that organizing is destiny, right? It`s the destiny of the state and not just in demographics, right?
So, we`ve seen success across the state in mobilizing voters around a big, bold issue agenda, first and foremost. And our organizing -- the organizing that we do is centrally about how are we motivating our voters to the polls?
You know, it`s not a foreign idea. There are a lot of groups out there, different special interest groups, that are able to mobilize their voters. And for black and brown folks that are on the margins, that don`t have access to health care, that are living in neighborhoods where the schools are sub-par and underfunded, having a reason to vote, people need a reason to vote. Our votes need to be courted. And fundamentally what we`re about is making sure that we have -- we`re expanding the electorate and we have politicians that are responsive to the needs of what is increasingly the majority of Texans, which are black and brown folks.
HAYES: Evan, so there`s a few different dynamics. There is a sort of urban/suburban/rural dynamic, there`s the sort of racial demographic dynamics. And Texas is a state, someone just did an analysis, Mississippi with a lot of undervoting among communities, right? It doesn`t have a high participation rate compared to some other states.
In the suburbs, let`s stop talking about, OK, the state`s going to go blue and it`s doomsday for Republicans. But I am m fascinated by what`s happening in these suburbs, in these suburban districts. What what is happening there that these folks are retiring, that we`ve seen a few of those seats flipped? when, you know, Romney`s winning a district by 22 points that Beto wins by three.
SMITH: Well, the fact is the last election cycle, 2018, the real story of that cycle was the degree to which the suburbs, which had not been open to voting for Democrats, became much more open to Democrats if not bear- hugging Democrats. Fort Bend County outside of Houston, Pete Olson`s area.
HAYES: He`s one of the retirements, obviously.
SMITH: One of the retirements. Williamson County, north of Austin. Hayes County south of Austin. Collin County, Denton County, up around Dallas. These are communities that really did put the scare into Republicans, in some cases they defeated Republican state lawmakers. And it`s in these very places that the members of congress are wondering if they should return themselves to the private sector.
That suburban trend is about two things. It`s about demographics, but it`s also about the affordability of the big cities. And I believe big city voters being pushed out to the suburbs taking their big city values and their big city votes with them.
HAYES: And you just said something interesting, Brianna, about sort of giving people something to vote for, because Texas does have for a variety of reasons I think the obstacles put in front of folks for being able to vote. It does have lower participation rates than a lot of other states. What`s your sort of theory of the case about that?
BROWN: Well, last year we reached out to 900,000 unique voters across the states, delivered 465,000 voters during the midterm, 115,000 of those voters had never voted in a midterm before.
I mean, those are big numbers. You know, Texas is a big state. You can go to scale really quickly. And I think it fundamentally goes back to, you know, this idea of how do you expand the electorate, right? How do you give people something to vote for? When there have been everything from structural barriers that prevent people from fully participating in our democracy to, you know, to other kind of, like, barriers in the everyday, right?
We don`t have an -- we, you know, getting -- just getting to the polls. In 2016, we took a 2,500 people to the polls in our drive for democracy program because that is an additional barrier that people have.
So I think that it`s important to think about the conversation about like how to expand our democracy by speaking directly to the voters, and in this case voters who are often left out of the conversation.
HAYES: Evan Smith and Brianna Brown, thank you both. That is ALL IN for this evening. "THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW" starts right now.
Good evening, Rachel.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. END