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All In With Chris Hayes, Transcript 10/5/2016

Guests: Katy Tur, Nick Confessore, Katrina vandenHeuvel, Josh Barro, Bonnie Schneider, Katie Packer, Hari Sevugan, Andre Carson

Show: ALL IN with CHRIS HAYES Date: October 5, 2016 Guest: Katy Tur, Nick Confessore, Katrina vandenHeuvel, Josh Barro, Bonnie Schneider, Katie Packer, Hari Sevugan, Andre Carson

CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST (voice-over): Tonight on ALL IN...



(END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES (voice-over): Trump takes credit.


TRUMP: I`m getting a lot of credit.


HAYES (voice-over): And team Clinton takes aim.


TIM KAINE, DEMOCRATIC VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He is asking everybody to vote for somebody that he cannot defend.


HAYES (voice-over): Tonight, all the fallout from the second debate of the season.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Your 2020 campaign began last night. That`s what they`re saying in the drive-by media, Governor.


HAYES (voice-over): Plus, new battleground polling and the state of the race. New questions about Donald Trump`s taxes.


MIKE PENCE, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He used the tax code just the way it`s supposed to be used, and he did it brilliantly.

KAINE: How do you know that?

(END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES (voice-over): The fine art of projection politics.


PENCE: Did you all just hear that? Ours is an insult driven campaign?


HAYES (voice-over): And as Hurricane Matthew approaches Florida, today`s massive announcement on climate change from the White House. When ALL IN starts right now.

HAYES: Good evening from New York. I`m Chris Hayes. After Mike Pence managed to get through 90 minutes of last night`s presidential debate without insulting a single woman`s appearance or bragging that not paying taxes makes him smart, Republicans celebrated the fact their vice presidential nominee had managed to deliver a stylistically smooth, albeit though substantively challenged, debate performance. But almost immediately after the debate, many began wondering how the famously thin- skinned Donald Trump would react to being fairly clearly outperformed by his running mate. A Trump advisor telling John Harwood, quote, he can`t stand to be upstaged. And that quote, Pence won overall, but lost with Trump. At a campaign event in Nevada today, Trump complimented his running mate, but added that Trump deserves a lot of the credit.


TRUMP: Mike Pence did an incredible job. And I`m getting a lot of credit because that`s really my first so-called choice, that was my first hire, as we would say in Las Vegas.


HAYES: From Trump`s perspective, the problem with Pence`s performance could be that, as many have pointed out, Pence didn`t actually defend Donald Trump, prompting the observation that he won the debate by throwing Donald Trump under the bus, and the speculation that Pence is expecting a Trump loss and running for president himself in 2020. Pence was asked about just that today.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The third thing they`re saying is you actually weren`t trying to help Trump last night. You already know Hillary`s going to win, so you were doing everything you did for 2020, Governor. Your 2020 campaign began last night. That`s what they`re saying in the drive-by media, Governor.

PENCE: You know, it`s what we`re used to.


HAYES: At a rally today in Virginia, Pence sought to shift the spotlight back to his running mate after soaking in plaudits from his supporters.


PENCE: Some people think I won.


PENCE: But I`ll leave that to others. You know, what I can tell you is from where I sat, Donald Trump won the debate.


HAYES: Nice save, Governor. The other politician on the stage last night, Tim Kaine, faced criticism for being too eager to interrupt to slashing in his style particularly early on. But as the debate went on it became clearer and clearer that Kaine`s strategy, one he faithfully executed, was not to be likeable, but to repeatedly spotlight Trump`s extreme positions and awful statements for the more than 37 million who, Nielsen says, watched the debate, and then force Pence to try to defend them. When Pence declined to do so, Kaine pounced.


KAINE: Six times tonight I have said to Governor Pence, I can`t imagine how you could defend your running mate`s position on one issue after the next. And in all six cases, he`s refused to defend his running mate --

PENCE: No, no, don`t put words in my mouth.


PENCE: No, no, if he`s going to do that, you`ve got to give --

KAINE: And yet he is asking everybody to vote for somebody that he cannot defend.


HAYES: At a fundraiser in D.C. earlier tonight, Clinton sought to hammer that reality home.


HILLARY CLINTON, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And so when your own running mate won`t defend --


CLINTON: -- the top of the ticket, I think that tells you everything you need to know about who`s qualified and temperamentally fit to be president. Even Mike Pence doesn`t think Donald Trump is.


HAYES: Then there was Pence`s strategy of repeatedly denying that Trump had said things that Trump had in fact said, which set the stage for videos like this one from the Clinton campaign.


KAINE: Donald Trump, on the other hand, didn`t know that Russia had invaded the Crimea.

PENCE: Oh, that`s nonsense.

TRUMP: He`s not going to go into Ukraine. All right. You can mark it down, you can put it down, you can take it any way you want.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, he`s already there, isn`t he?

KAINE: Donald Trump has said it, deportation force. They want to go house to house, school to school, business to business, and kick out 16 million people. And I cannot believe --

PENCE: That`s nonsense.


TRUMP: We`re going to have a deportation force.

PENCE: Donald Trump and I would never support legislation that punished women.

CHRIS MATTHEWS, HOST, HARDBALL WITH CHRIS MATTHEWS: Should the woman be punished for having an abortion?

TRUMP: There has to be some form of punishment.

KAINE: More nations should get nuclear weapons. Try to defend that.

PENCE: Well, he never said that.

TRUMP: Wouldn`t you rather, in a certain sense, have Japan have nuclear weapons? We have --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Saudi Arabia nuclear weapons?

TRUMP: Saudi Arabia, absolutely.


HAYES: Why not? At a rally in Philadelphia earlier this evening, Kaine reflected on his debate experience.


KAINE: The debate was a little feisty.


KAINE: I mean, I got to admit, I am Irish. The key part of that debate was at some points I felt like both me and Mike Pence were debating Donald trump. I was going after Donald Trump and Mike Pence kind of was going after Trump with me. And I can`t imagine that that made The Donald too happy. So there may have been some interesting conversations about that today on the other side of the aisle.


HAYES: Joining me now from Las Vegas, Nevada, tonight, NBC News Correspondent Katy Tur. And Katy, it seems to me that the Democrats have tried to spring another trap for Donald Trump, tried to get under his skin that his own running mate is not defending him. I`m curious the kind of mood in Trump world right now.

KATY TUR, CORRESPONDENT, NBC NEWS: You know, I have not heard that they are upset by Governor Pence`s performance in any way or that they`re worried that he might have upstaged Donald Trump. There`s a lot of pushback to that reporting from the campaign. But what I can tell you that was before they were deciding on who was going to be Donald Trump`s running mate, there was some concern about choosing somebody who would upstage Donald Trump, somebody like Newt Gingrich or Chris Christie who`s more of a politician, a more practiced politician, bombastic politicians who know a lot more about policy than Donald Trump does. So there is precedent for that feeling, but I`m not getting anything from the campaign about them feeling like Governor Pence did too good of a job last night. But what I do know is that they want to get Donald Trump better prepared for this next debate coming up on Sunday. I was talking to aides last week and they were talking about, you know, getting him a debate coach, perhaps. Also, standing him behind a podium to see what that would be like. Of course, this next debate won`t be behind a podium, but just to get him more used to that feeling. Also, finding a way to get underneath Hillary Clinton`s skin in a way that she was able to get underneath Donald Trump`s skin, taking her off her game, and also pivoting to territory that`s more comfortable for him. Governor Pence did all that decently, if you`re going to look at just style and the way that he was able to compose himself during his debate last night. Donald Trump did not do that. But I can tell you this, Chris. I`ve asked the campaign multiple times this week what they`re doing specifically for debate prep, and they are just not answering the question. They`ve gone completely silent on this idea.


TUR: He`s also had a pretty robust schedule. He`s got a campaign rally tomorrow or an event tomorrow in New Hampshire. We`re going to find out if he`s doing anything else on Friday or Saturday. But remember before the first debate he had campaign rallies up until the days before. And that seemed to hurt him because he didn`t seem as prepared, certainly, as Hillary Clinton was. So we`re not entirely sure how much debate prep Donald Trump is doing. But I can tell you the campaign did feel like he needed much more going into this second debate.

HAYES: All right. Katy Tur, thanks for that update from Las Vegas, Nevada. Joining me now, MSNBC contributor Nick Confessore, political reporter of The New York Times, and Katrina vandenHeuvel, editor and publisher of The Nation, which endorsed Hillary Clinton today with a piece entitled "Why Progressives Should Vote for Hillary Clinton." So here`s the thing I found most fascinating about this debate. Donald Trump is this sort of maelstrom, this singular force, that directs so much attention. He so bizarrely fits into modern Republican and conservative orthodoxy and in certain ways he`s the apotheosis of it, in other ways he`s a rejection of it.


HAYES: But then you forget that, like, there`s an entire Republican Party.


HAYES: There`s literally thousands of people around the country governing at different levels --


HAYES: -- that are not Donald Trump. And this was kind of like -- oh, what`s going on in that --


HAYES: -- world? Michael Brendan Dougherty had a great line today. He said it was as if Pence was the designated survivor of the Republican primary, a man held away from the carnage Trump has inflicted in the Republican Party, its conventions, orthodoxies, and pieties.

VANDENHEUVEL: So I don`t think this country will be the same, I don`t think either party will be the same after this election. It`s an upend- the-rules election. And we saw last night an element of the Republican Party which has been descending, not ascending, even before Donald Trump --

HAYES: That`s interesting.

VANDENHEUVEL: -- took this primary and just --

HAYES: And by that you mean social conservatives?

VANDENHEUVEL: Social conservativism. And if you think about what has roiled this election year, it has been populism.


VANDENHEUVEL: It has been economic issues, it has been the class divisions within parties, it has been economic insecurity and not the social issues, which so animated the Republican Party. So I think --


VANDENHEUVEL: -- we can talk all --

HAYES: That`s a great point.

VANDENHEUVEL: -- we want about preparation and this and that. Last night we did see an extremist give really extremist positions a reassuring face. But the big issues facing, I think, this country and both parties: disruptive globalization, populist nationalism, and the end of traditional work. And how these parties deal with it will be central to their future.

NICK CONFESSORE, REPORTER, THE NEW YORK TIMES: Look, I think that Trump has shown that faith voters are not the faith voters who we thought they were.

HAYES: Right.

CONFESSORE: You know, that faith and religiosity and social issues as they are normally constructed are not necessarily anymore the main drivers of politics in that part of that party. They have the same appetite on immigration, on trade --

HAYES: Right.

CONFESSORE: -- on populism --

HAYES: That`s exactly right.

CONFESSORE: -- and, frankly, on rage politics --


CONFESSORE: -- as the pure Trumpista. And so I think you can`t go back to that old model anymore.

HAYES: Well, but here`s what`s interesting, right, I mean, I remember 2004 when the whole idea was the first evangelical president, George W. Bush, Building Red America, a book by Thomas Edsall.


HAYES: But there is a sort of new rising evangelical base that was going to cement this sort of permanent Republican majority. And my reminder last night was, look, Donald Trump, if he is elected president, there are going to be thousands of Mike Pence accolades, people with those politics on social issues who will be in the government.

VANDENHEUVEL: Yes, but I`m also thinking of -- we talk a lot about young people, Millennials, in this election. We`ve seen among younger evangelicals an unwillingness to go with climate denialism, which Mike Pence is all about, too --


VANDENHEUVEL: -- and Donald Trump. So we`ve seen an opening there. We`ve seen, though not as clearly as we`d thought, the Republican Party can no longer be the party of white sanctuary nationally, right? The demographic shifts aren`t coming as quickly.

HAYES: They think they can be, though, clearly.

VANDENHEUVEL: They think they can be, but I do think whatever -- and by the way, I think if Donald Trump loses, Trumpism is still with us. Because the economic insecurity in this country, the bad health outcomes, the end of a coal industry -- which is not due to Hillary Clinton --

HAYES: Right.

VANDENHEUVEL: -- but to fracking and --

HAYES: Right.

VANDENHEUVEL: So I think all of these conditions will persist. How we as a country come together to confront these challenges. Now, Donald Trump, I love -- we endorsed Hillary Clinton. I say that only in the sense that when you see someone heading the Republican Party, poking an eye in the Chamber of Commerce`s eye, and poking an eye at the orthodoxy of a failed, discredited foreign policy and economic establishment, even while he has failed and a spectacular loser, I think is important.

HAYES: Well, this is what I find so interesting. There`s this little seduction to the left of Donald Trump --

VANDENHEUVEL: It`s not left.

HAYES: -- for those reasons. No, there is. There is a seduction for certain parts of the left in Donald Trump precisely because he has, in many respects, the right enemies.

VANDENHEUVEL: We endorsed Bernie Sanders because he was about inclusivity and also shaking up the status quo. Donald Trump is about bigotry and normal (INAUDIBLE) --

HAYES: Right.

VANDENHEUVEL: -- hate. On the other hand (INAUDIBLE) --


CONFESSORE: But you can find the voters on the left who like Trump.

HAYES: -- pointing the finger in the eye --

VANDENHEUVEL: What I like --

CONFESSORE: There are voters on the trail who say my first choice is Donald Trump, my second choice was Sanders, and vice versa.

HAYES: That is -- well, let`s be clear (INAUDIBLE) tiny sliver (INAUDIBLE) --

CONFESSORE: It`s tiny, but it`s there.

VANDENHEUVEL: I like shaking up a discredited, failed, bipartisan establishment. Bernie Sanders did that --

HAYES: OK, but here`s what so fascinating about that argument.

VANDENHEUVEL: And, by the way --

HAYES: So here`s that argument right now. The Atlantic for the --

VANDENHEUVEL: Yes. Endorsed --

HAYES: -- third time is endorsing, right? You`ve got the establishment to the extent it exists. You don`t have a single Fortune --


HAYES: -- 500, 100 CEO endorsing.

VANDENHEUVEL: Right, right.

HAYES: You`ve got basically every editorial board of major papers, The Atlantic now weighing in, The Nation magazine --




HAYES: -- from the Civil War era. The establishment is pretty much lined up against Donald Trump. Isn`t that a credit to the establishment?

VANDENHEUVEL: No. Because the --


VANDENHEUVEL: -- neocon liberal interventionist talk establishment, which Hillary Clinton has amassed around her, is responsible, I would argue, for some of the failed forays into the, I am the indispensable nation.

CONFESSORE: And so why`d you endorse her?

VANDENHEUVEL: Well, if you read it, it`s about opening space for change. There`s a very tough --


VANDENHEUVEL: -- graph about her --

HAYES: Wait. But here --

VANDENHEUVEL: -- hawkish foreign policy. It`s incumbent upon us as a movement --

HAYES: But here`s the thing that I --

VANDENHEUVEL: -- but I do think she`s more moveable than Donald Trump.

HAYES: Here`s what I find fascinating. If you want to talk about hawkish foreign policy, last night we saw Mike Pence -- whatever Donald Trump thinks about Russia --


HAYES: But that`s the point is, the base, all the people around them, they`re all still the same people. So as soon as Donald Trump went off stage, Mike Pence sat down at the table and said basically, yes, if we have to shoot down Russian planes over Syria, let`s shoot down Russian planes over Syria. Like, he was extraordinarily --

CONFESSORE: Whoa, whoa.

HAYES: -- hawkish on (INAUDIBLE).

VANDENHEUVEL: I know he was.

CONFESSORE: The reason you see all these party members and leaders who are behind Trump now, it`s not just that he is the presidential nominee. It`s that I think they think that if he is the president --


CONFESSORE: -- it is them in the driver`s seat.

HAYES: That`s exactly right.

CONFESSORE: It`s Paul Ryan on --

VANDENHEUVEL: Yes, no, I agree.

CONFESSORE: -- policy, it`s the usual office that we`ll --

HAYES: They think they`re going to get --

CONFESSORE: -- see on foreign policy.

HAYES: -- their trade deals. They think --


VANDENHEUVEL: They think they`re going to get their way because he will --


VANDENHEUVEL: -- go off and -- but I do think anything we can do to force a debate, to shake up the establishment, is important.


VANDENHEUVEL: Now, we have to defeat Donald Trump. But --

HAYES: You know, sometimes a (INAUDIBLE) shaking involves figures like Donald Trump.


HAYES: Nick Confessore, Katrina vandenHeuvel, thanks for being with me tonight. Appreciate it. Still ahead, how Donald Trump`s headline-grabbing personality overshadows the larger problems within the Republican Party and how Mike Pence, governor of Indiana, is a perfect reminder of that. First, did Donald Trump take advantage of a mistake in the tax code to avoid paying taxes after this nearly billion-dollar loss? We`ll talk about that right after this two-minute break.



PENCE: His tax returns showed he went through a very difficult time. But he used the tax code just the way it`s supposed to be used, and he did it brilliantly.

KAINE: How do you know that? You haven`t seen his tax returns.

PENCE: He created a runway -- because he`s created a business that`s worth billions of dollars today.

KAINE: How do you know that?


HAYES: When Tim Kaine kept hammering Mike Pence about Donald Trump`s tax returns last night during the debate, it wasn`t just about those tax returns. America has never in its history elevated someone to its highest office with less public service experience than Donald Trump. But Trump, of course, does have a long business career, which the American public might be able to accurately judge as the entirety of his resume, if he would release his tax returns. The New York Times revelation on Trump`s decades old tax return did shed some light on the subject. Donald J. Trump declared a $916 million loss on his 1995 income tax returns, a tax deduction so substantial it could have allowed him to legally avoid paying any federal income taxes for up to 18 years. Trump first responded to that news by saying he had, quote, brilliantly used the tax laws to his benefit. Mike Pence echoed that last night. And then he went one step further saying it`s actually the fault of -- wait for it -- Hillary Clinton.


TRUMP: She complains about how I`ve used the tax laws of this country to my benefit. Then I ask a simple question, why didn`t she ever try to change those laws so I couldn`t use them? You know why? She could have changed the laws when she was in the United States Senate, but she didn`t.


HAYES: But as noted by our next guest, it just so happens there was a particularly egregious tax loophole in the 1990s created by accident which was closed by the Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002, a bill that then Senator Hillary Clinton voted for and President George W. Bush signed. And it is entirely possible that is the exact tax loophole Donald Trump may have used, if he did indeed manage to avoid paying taxes for nearly two decades. Joining me now, the man who wrote about that tax loophole today, MSNBC contributor Josh Barro, senior editor of Business Insider. And we should note we are speaking in the hypothetical --


HAYES: -- because we don`t actually know.

BARRO: We don`t know. We`ve only seen the first page --

HAYES: Right.

BARRO: -- of his tax return. If we`d seen the whole return, we could talk more concretely about what`s in it.

HAYES: So there`s a sort of a mystery here, which is --

BARRO: Right.

HAYES: -- like, how do you lose that much money?

BARRO: Right.

HAYES: Right? That`s kind of the --

BARRO: And I think people haven`t quite grasped how big this loss is.

HAYES: It`s insane.

BARRO: I mean, obviously $916 million is an enormous amount of money. But the provision that he took, it`s called a net operating loss.

HAYES: Right.

BARRO: Basically, when your business has losses that exceed all your income, you have a negative income. When you look at all the tax returns in the entire country in 1995, there was about $49 billion of that. Which means Donald Trump accounted for two percent --

HAYES: Right.

BARRO: -- of the net operating loss in the entire country.

HAYES: -- of the entire GDP of the U.S., right?

BARRO: Right.

HAYES: Like, all the different firms and places that are operating.

BARRO: It`s just individual income tax.

HAYES: Right, right, right, yes.

BARRO: But, yes, anyone who has a business like Trump`s that`s owned --

HAYES: Right.

BARRO: -- as an individual business.

HAYES: Right, right.

BARRO: So 250 million people, he has 2 percent of it for the whole country. It`s an enormous loss. And so the question is did he really have $900 million of his own to lose in these businesses that we know did do very badly. In fact, in the early 1990s, his casinos, his airlines. He had three casino bankruptcies, so he did lose a lot of money. But there was this tax loophole. And what it meant was basically -- you know, when you`re like Trump and you own this business and it goes bust and you lose money and the people who loaned you money also lose lots of money --

HAYES: Right.

BARRO: -- normally, those losses are split. You know, the banks don`t get paid back, they take part of the loss --

HAYES: Right.

BARRO: -- and you take part of the loss.

HAYES: That`s right.

BARRO: And the part that was really yours, you get to write that off your taxes. But there was this error in the way that a specific kind of business form was taxed that basically allowed if there was a loss where, you know, Trump was out 100 million and the banks were out 800 million, he could have written off the entire 900 million off his taxes, even though he only really lost, in this example, $100 million.

HAYES: This is great. I love this.


HAYES: So he could write off the bank`s loss, essentially --


HAYES: -- on the loan?

BARRO: Yes. And so the banks --

HAYES: It was just a mistake in the tax code?

BARRO: It was a mistake in the tax code. And in fact, as people started filing their taxes using this provision, the IRS looked at it and said, well, this isn`t right, and, like, there were years of litigation in the tax courts. And it got to the Supreme Court in 2001. The Supreme Court looked at the law and said, well, the law does say this, even though that`s stupid, and so if you want to change it, you have to change the law. And so that`s how we got this 2002 change. But up until 2002, people -- including potentially Donald Trump -- could have used this provision to claim losses on their taxes --

HAYES: That was not their loss.

BARRO: Right.

HAYES: Right.


HAYES: So what I love about this story is, A, it`s a sort of window into how, like, complicated and screwed up the tax code often can be.

BARRO: Right.

HAYES: Although, in this case, it was actually fixed, right?

BARRO: Right.

HAYES: Like, they realized this was crazy and they fixed it.

BARRO: This is unusually bad.

HAYES: Right.

BARRO: Usually people who have a lot of income have to pay tax on their income. There are loopholes in the tax code, but this was a particularly egregious provision, which is why it got fixed by a bipartisan vote of 85 to nine. Nobody thought this was a good idea, it was just a thing that happened by accident.

HAYES: What I also love about this story, though, is this is, like, from two pages.

BARRO: Right.

HAYES: I mean, like, the amount -- like, Eric Trump and Donald Junior have at various times sort of let the cat out of the bag that the real reason they`re not releasing the tax returns is because it would be politically damaging.

BARRO: Right.

HAYES: I mean, the extent they`ve said as much, right?


HAYES: It`s not about the audit. You get a sense of just how much information would be packed into these returns if we saw them.

BARRO: Right. And the thing is if what the return said is the story that Donald Trump has told publicly, which is basically he built this big empire, he made all this money, he lost it, and then he clawed his way back through his own genius and now he`s making more money than ever, you`d think he`d want to release the tax returns because they would say that. But I suspect that what they say is actually that this loophole is what he used. And the reason for that is this isn`t the only tax information of Trump`s we`ve seen now. We`ve seen his tax returns from a number of years. We`ve seen tax information on him from nine different tax years --

HAYES: Right.

BARRO: -- going back to the 1970s. The highest income that he ever reported in any of those years was less than $120,000. That was back in 1977. We know of six years in which he reported no -- negative.

HAYES: So nuts.

BARRO: So the question for me is if this was a real loss, like Mike Pence said it was in the debate --

HAYES: Right.

BARRO: It was he had all this money.

HAYES: He had a bad year.

BARRO: He lost $900 million.

HAYES: Right.

BARRO: When did he make all that money?

HAYES: Right. That`s a great point.

BARRO: We have not seen any tax return that says, oh, Donald Trump made $200 million --

HAYES: Right.

BARRO: -- this year.

HAYES: That`s a great point.


HAYES: Josh Barro, thank you for explaining that.

BARRO: Sure.

HAYES: Still to come, new battleground polling, how the seemingly unprecedented volatile campaign is falling into a pretty familiar pattern. I`ll explain ahead.



BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The Paris agreement alone will not solve the climate crisis. But make no mistake, this agreement will help delay or avoid some of the worst consequences of climate change.


HAYES: Today President Obama announced that enough nations have now signed onto the Paris climate agreement for it to be implemented, beginning in 30 days. The first of its kind global treaty requires each nation to set specific targets for carbon emission reduction and then report its progress publicly. It just so happens that earlier today the president was doing something else. He was meeting with FEMA officials to prepare for Hurricane Matthew, a massive storm that has already claimed 25 lives, primarily in Haiti where it made landfall yesterday. And after moving through the Caribbean, Hurricane Matthew`s expected to either hit or come dangerously close to the southeast coast of the United States where emergency evacuations are well underway. Joining me now, MSNBC meteorologist Bonnie Schneider. And, Bonnie, what is the latest for the path of this storm?

BONNIE SCHNEIDER, METEOROLOGIST, MSNBC: Well, the track hasn`t changed, Chris, but we have a new position statement. So right now the storm is still a category 3. It`s weakened just slightly at 115 miles per hour winds. The problem is, is that the storm is likely to strengthen to a category 4 before it becomes very close if not making landfall somewhere near the Space Coast in Florida. That`s where we have hurricane warnings now impacting 9 million Americans at this hour, just incredible. The hurricane watch extends all the way along the Georgia coast because we are anticipating those strong winds and really dangerous storm surge. The category 4 storm comes perilously close north of Melbourne by the time we`re at right around 2 o`clock on Friday. But it`s really going to ride the coastline, whether it makes landfall or not. We`re going to see just really dangerous conditions all the way across the southeast. The track eventually taking it further out to sea, but may do a loop. That`ll be next week. We have to get through the next few days. One thing I want to mention is the dangerous rainfall and flood threat that we`re seeing from Matthew. We`re likely to see it especially here in North Carolina where we could get ten inches of rain. That`s one of the reasons we`ve seen these evacuations happen into the Charleston area, particularly in the low-lying areas. So look for the impact continuing right now in the Bahamas where we can see 15 feet of storm surge. And then as we get closer to the Florida coast, unfortunately that storm surge will build in and that`s going to be a really dangerous threat, as well as the winds coming through from Savannah all the way to Charleston. So keep in mind this is a dangerous storm and it may be catastrophic for Florida. Chris?

HAYES: All right, Bonnie. Thank you for that. MSNBC meteorologist Bonnie Schneider. (INAUDIBLE) storm surge. Coming up, compared to Donald Trump, Mike Pence comes off as the sensible voice of the Republican ticket. What that means about the Republican Party as a whole, next.



TRUMP: I am very underleveraged. I have a great company. I have a tremendous income. And the reason I say that is not in a braggadocios way, it`s because because it`s about time that this country had somebody running it that has an idea about money.

PENCE: I have to tell you, I`m a small town boy from a place not too different from Farmville. I grew up with a cornfield in my backward. I dream someday of representing my hometown in Washington, D.C., but I honestly, Elaine, I never imagined I`d never imagine have an opportunity to be governor of the state that I love let alone be sitting at a table like this in this kind of a position.


HAYES: With his ousized polarizing personality and utter disinterest in issues of policy Donald Trump breaks the mold for candidates of either party. It`s not every election year we get a feud with an ex-beauty queen played out in 5:00 a.m. tweets.

Now, compared to Trump, his runningmate, Mike Pence, looks positively sensible. On the debate stage last night, Pence was the conventional face of the Republican Party, behaving like a reasonably competent politicians with a decent grasp of policy and political norms.

It`s a low bar, but it appears to have made an impression on the viewing public. In one instant poll of registered voters who watched the debate, 53 percent said Pence was more likable than Tim Kaine, who took a much more combative approach.

But if Mike Pence represents the kinder, gentler, more normal GOP, that party is as extreme and far-right as it has ever been. And it`s pushing an agenda that`s not especially popular with the American people broadly.

Consider Pence`s record as a governor of Indiana where before he joined Trump`s ticket, a flurry of recent controversies had dimmed his hopes for re-election. In the past few months, federal courts have struck down two of Pence`s key initiatives. In June, a judge blocked parts of a law banning abortions based solely on fetal anomalies or disabilities, including a provision that mandated funerary services for aborted fetuses. Think about that one for a second.

And just two days ago an appeals court halted Pence`s attempt to keep Syrian refugees from being resettled in Indiana even after he took federal money to do just that.

Then there was the furor over Indiana`s so-called religious freedom law, which would have protected discrimination by business owners by LBGT Americans. After sparking a massive backlash among Republican big business, Pence signed a modified version of the bill into law.

And joining me now, congressman Andre Carson, who is a Democrat from Indiana and knows Governor Mike Pence. And Congressman, I wanted to get your reaction -- I think a lot of people this was the sort of -- the first time they saw extended Mike Pence. And I will say he has a very kind of avuncular sort of manner about him that is very easy to watch. What kind of governor has he been?

REP. ANDRE CARSON, (D) INDIANA: Well, he hasn`t been that popular. He and I worked together in congress. We went to lunch quite often. Personally, we have a pretty good relationship, but he`s been unpopular in terms of his policies.

And I think what you`ve seen, as you`ve referenced the famous RFRA, Religious Freedom Restoration Act, during that debacle, the height of the debacle, we were hosting. We were hosting an NCAA tournament, and also it cost the city of Indianapolis over $60 million and lost opportunities to host future conventions.

I think also one has to remember that Governor Pence voted against a minimum wage increase in 2007.

And so I think that once one digs a bit deeper. He is likable personally, but I think his policies -- he tends to be a bit too dogmatic, and so I was pleased to see Tim Kaine firing back and being aggressive in terms of refuting the governor`s claims about Mr. Trump.

HAYES: There was a long extended part of the debate about abortion, which is something that has not been foregrounded by the Trump campaign.

I mean, Donald Trump didn`t mention abortion or life once in his RNC speech, which I found remarkable.

This governor has been, I would say, at the front edge of the anti-abortion movement across the country. Is that a fair characterization.

CARSON: Well, certainly. I think that he has been very pronounced in his statements and his actions. I mean, Mr. Pence is committed to his religious identity and principles and I respect that wholly.

What we have to be concerned with, as some of my colleagues on the other side love to quote the founding fathers, as complicated as they were, the founding fathers wanted to get away from a theocracy, and I think those of us who are elected officials and I think Tim Kaine outlined very clearly when he had to deal with an issue regarding the death penalty, as an elective representative, he had to put his religion aside and govern for the people.

he recognized that he represents Muslims, Christians, Jewish brothers and sisters, Sikhs, Hindus, non-theists even, and he has to uphold the constitution be it the United States constitution and

And so I think we have to be cautious of politicians who use their religiosity in a way that`s dogmatic and an attempt to politicize and even proselytize to other people, which to me is unacceptable.

HAYES: All right, Congressman Andre Carson of the great state of Indiana. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

CARSON: An honor. Thank you.

HAYES: Thing One, Thing Two ahead. But first a funny thing happened at the Trump rally in Nevada tonight, and I pronounce it Nevada, because that`s how you pronounce it. I, and many a politician have learned the hard way do not under any circumstances pronounce it as Nevada. People from Nevada hate that.


TRUMP: Heroin overdoses are surging and meth overdoses are surging in Nevada -- Nevada. And you know what I said? You know what I said? I said when I came out here, I said, nobody says it the other way, it has to be Nevada, right. And if you don`t say it correctly, and it didn`t happen to me, but it happened to a friend of mine, he was killed.



HAYES: Thing One tonight, there`s a single unifying theme for how the Trump campaign deals with criticism of Trump. It`s that old classic, I know you are but what am I approach.

Consider Donald Trump calling Hillary Clinton a bigot where the campaign suggesting it`s Hillary Clinton that treated women poorly or Trump saying at a rally, quote, unstable Hillary Clinton lacks the judgment, temperament and moral character to lead this country.

The strategy was in full effect last night during the vice presidential debate.


KAINE: Donald Trump during his campaign has called Mexicans rapists and criminal. He`s called women slobs, pigs, dogs, disgusting.

PENCE: He says ours is an insult-driven campaign? Did you all just hear that? Ours is an insult-driven campaign?


HAYES: That was happening while Donald Trump was retweeting insults about Tim Kaine looking like a batman villain.

The same with Russian connections. Trump has repeatedly praised Putin during his campaiagn and a former Trump campaign chairman resigned just this summer after questions arose about his business ties with Russia.

But Donald Trump tweeted Hillary Clinton is the one with the connections.

Then this morning the clear winning example, the constant interruptions last night by Tim Kaine should not have been allowed. Mike Pence won big.

So, just take a wild guess as to what we`re going to play as tonight`s Thing Two in just 60 seconds.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) HAYES: This morning Donald Trump praised his running mate`s debate performance but also offered up some constructive criticism for the debate`s moderator, tweeting out "the constant interruptions last night by Tim Kaine should not have been allowed."

Now, just let that sink in as we go back in time exactly nine days ago.


CLINTON: Let me say...

TRUMP: There`s nothing crazy about not letting our companies bring their money back into their country.

LESTER HOLT, NBC NEWS: This is Secretary Clinton`s two minutes.

TRUMP: Well, he approved NAFTA.

CLINTON: A million new jobs, I wrote about that.

TRUMP: You called it the gold standard.

CLINTON: I wrote about that...

TRUMP: So is it President Obama`s fault? Is it President Obama`s fault?

But you have no plan...

CLINTON: Oh, I do.

TRUMP: Secretary, you have no plan.

I do not say that. You`re wrong.

CLINTON: No, I`m not.

TRUMP: Murders are up.

I never said that. Didn`t say.

CLINTON: Men support that. But when it was negotiated...

Donald supported the invasion of Iraq.

TRUMP: Wrong.

CLINTON: That is absolutely proved over and over again.

TRUMP: Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

CLINTON: ...United States and...

TRUMP: Wrong. It`s wrong.

Would you like to hear?

HOLT: Since you supported it, why is your judgment.

TRUMP: Wait a minute, there`s a person with a temperament that`s got a problem.

HOLT: Secretary Clinton.




HAYES: Fox News is no stranger to warranted critique over its racial politics. And now the network finds itself facing an actual firestorm of controversy over a segment featuring one of its correspondent. The correspondent was dispatched to New York`s Chinatown to ostensibly discuss the 2016 election.

But the segment that aired had little to do with political discourse. Instead it trotted out a whole host of tired and offensive Asian stereotypes half edited together with movie clips. As writer Suzy Kim put it, how much trolling, anti-Asian racism can you pack into one news segment? More than I ever thought possible.


UNIDENITIFIED MALE: Am I supposed to bow to say hello?

i like these watches. are they hot?


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Do you like Donald Trump?

UNIDENITIIFED MALE: Yes. Hillary Clinton basically is an extension of Obama.

UNIDENITIFIED MALE: Who are you going to vote for?

UNIDENTIIFED MALE: Clinton`s wife.

UNIDENITIFIED MALE: Clinton`s wife has a name. What is it?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, man. I forget it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Snap out of it.


HAYES: This kind of shtick was played out and racist decades ago. And needless to say, a number of lawmakers and civil rights organizations are expressing anger over the segment.

The Asian-American Journalist Association is demanding an apology from Fox News. Quote, it`s 2016. We should be far beyond tired, racist stereotypes and targeting an ethnic group for humiliation and objectification on the basis of their race.

Sadly, Fox News proves it has a long way to go in reporting on communities of color in a respectful and fair manner.

Interestingly enough, Fox News has not defended the segment. In fact, it has not commented on the matter. As for the correspondent, he called himself in what I don`t think was meant to be a joke, a political humorist, and defended his segment on Twitter, "my man on the street interviews are meant to be taken as tongue-in-cheek, and I regret if anyone found offense.

In completely and totally unrelated news, Asian-Americans are the fastest growing racial group in the U.S. and could potentially influence key battleground states this election cycle, because over the course of two decades, the Asian-American vote in presidential elections has gone from being solidly Republican to solidly Democratic.

In fact, new polling shows Hillary Clinton up 41 points among Asian- Americans. In fact, that same survey found that Asian-Americans are more than twice as likely to identify as Democrats than Republicans.

And maybe, just maybe because they are completely repulsed by a political movement whose most high profile voices think it`s hilarious to punk and humiliate their grandmothers.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Trump has been beating up on China. How does that make you feel?

BERNADETTE PETERS, ACTRESS: Speak, speak, speak, why don`t you speak?


HAYES: Boy, it really is impossible to figure out how Donald Trump came to be the Republican nominee, isn`t it?


HAYES: In the nine days since the first presidential debate, the polling has not look good for Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton has gained a point and a half in the RealClearPolitics polling average while Trump has lost a tenth of a point. And over that same period of time forecasting sites like FiveThirtyEight have taken Clinton from a 54 percent chance of winning to a 76 percent chance.

The New York Times Upshot estimates her chances of winning now at 81 percent.

Now, on its face the 2016 presidential contest has at times seemed unpredictable. And that`s largely because of the presence of Donald Trump and partly because Hillary Clinton is one of the most uniquely polarizing figures in American politics.

But when you widen the aperture a bit, the general shape of things doesn`t look that much different than 2008 and 2012. In each of those contests, Democrats surged ahead before some event late in the race showed polls tightening. In 2008, it happened after Sarah Palin was announced as John McCain`s runningmate. Polls tightened considerably and then Democrats regained theupper hand and Obama pulled out a pretty sizable win.

In 2012, it happened in October after that first presidential debate in which Romney was seen as the consensus winner. That race remained pretty close into the final stretch with Obama holding a consistent edge.

We saw tightening a few weeks ago when Clinton had her worst week of polling after she referred to trump supporters as, quote, in a basket of deplorables and fell ill at the 9/11 memorial service. The question now is will the basic fundamentals reassert themselves? And does that mean Democrats are on a glide path to victory?

Joining me now, Hari Sevugan, he`s former national press secretary for the Democratic National Committee and Katie Packer, former deputy campaign manager for Romney 2012 and an MSNBC contributor.

And Hari, maybe I`ll start with you. I remember listening to David Plouffe give interviews during those two weeks after 9/11. They were the two worst weeks of polling for Hillary Clinton and Plouffe was unflappable. His whole thing was you guys are all freaking out. The fundamentals are the fundamentals. We know how many votes we need in each of these states, each of these counties and swing states. We know what the demographic composition of the electorate is. Don`t worry about it.

That to me seemed unpersuasive then but maybe looks better now?

HARI SEVUGAN, FRM. DNC NATIONAL PRESS SECRETARY: Yeah, well look, I think he`s right. I mean, the fundamentals are the fundamentals. The map is the same and the math is the same. It`s a much harder road for him to get 270, but more than that Donald Trump isn`t doing what he needs to do, right. So, he hasn`t invested in data, and Kate can tell you how much a strong data program is going to help on election day, or on GOTV (ph), or field. And he hasn`t put the coalition he needs together to win.

Now Romney had 17 percent of the white vote in 2012 and he lost, because of the demographic changes in the country, Trump would need 22 percent of the white vote, according to FiveThirtyEight to win. HAYES: I`m sorry, just to be clear, a lead of 17 percent, above the...

SEVUGAN: Yeah, I`m sorry. Margin.

HAYES: If Donald Trump was getting 17 percent of the white vote...

KATIE PACKER, DEPUTY CAMPAIGN MANAGER FOR ROMNEY 2012: I`d have heard about that math.

HAYES: We`d be looking at a 90-10 kind of election sort of situation.

So, wait, but just so the people are clear on that, right. So, Romney won white voters by 17 points. Just demographic change means that Trump would have to win white voters by 22 points just to stay even.

SEVUGAN: And he has 13. So, that margin is at 13 for him.

So that`s where my confidence in the fundamentals of this campaign are really high. And the biggest fundamental of this campaign that hasn`t changed is Donald Trump makes every single day about Donald Trump, and if it`s a referendum on Donald Trump, he`s not going to win.

HAYES: Yeah, Katie, this -- Hari`s point there I think is fascinating about white voters, because I think there`s been so much emphasis on -- particularly on race, particularly on Donald Trump and race and the idea that he can essentially boost his performance along white voters perhaps at the expense of non-white voters by sort of embracing this line on immigration or the Muslim ban.

But Romney, Romney was -- did better than Donald Trump is currently doing among white voters which is pretty remarkable.

PACKER: Well, that`s the fundamental problem. And you`re right, the fundamentals of the race are, as David Plouffe said, these battleground states are tough places for Republicans to win. You know, in spite of some of the mistakes that we made as a campaign in 2012, we did do most things correctly in terms of ground game in terms of get out the vote. And it`s just hard.

It`s hard in most of these states for a Republican to win. You don`t have any margin for error. And Donald Trump seems to be going out of his way every single day to alienate exactly the kinds of voters that you need to get you over the threshold.

The problem with his whole strategy is these so-called Reagan Democrats that crossed party lines back in the `80s, they`ve been voting Republican for the last two decades. So those aren`t new voters, those are the same voters that voted for John McCain and George W. Bush and Mitt Romney. we had to have the politics of addition if we want to win general elections nationally, and Donald Trump is failing that math.

HAYES: Well, that`s a great point. Now, there`s a more sophisticated version of that argument which is the David Wasserman missing white voter thesis, which he wrote after 2012, largely in response to what had happened demographically with Romney.

Which he points out, and this is factually true, there are millions and millions and millions of white non-college voters who just don`t vote, right. They`re either not registered or they`re registered and they don`t vote. And Hari, there was some sense that maybe Trump would be the person to bring those voters sitting offline online and there`s maybe some evidence in states like Wisconsin or Ohio where he is sort of overperforming where you would think he`d be that he is, but it still doesn`t look like it`s going to be enough.

SEVUGAN: Yeah, I think that`s right. The other problem there is I do believe that he`s energizing voters in certain demographics, but the problem is he hasn`t invested in registration efforts or get out the vote efforts, so sort of these fallout voters or the sporadic voters who don`t vote every cycle that you`re talking about are going to need extra help getting registered and getting to the polls and he hasn`t invested in those programs.

So them actually showing out the casting voters room is going to be much harder to do. And that makes his -- as Keith said, the challenge in swing states very, very difficult.

HAYES: And Katie, you know, I was -- just yesterday I was in Farmville, Virginia, which by the way, absolutely lovely place, Longwood University, Farmville, could not be a more lovely pristine little idyllic college town.

And, you know, talking to Obama veterans -- my brother was field director for the state in `08 for Obama. And, you know, at the time making a strong play for a Democrat in Virginia seemed a real stretch. We`re two cycles later and both in both Virginia and Colorado you have got states that have seen stretches that are now pretty solidly -- I mean, Virginia`s remarkably performing for Hillary Clinton in a way I wouldn`t have predicted.

That stacks the deck even more.

PACKER: Well, what you see in places like Virginia and Colorado is that for every voter that you were talking about that maybe hasn`t been energized to vote in the past that is, you know, working class white voter, that may be coming out for Trump, there`s one or two suburban white Republican women like me who have voted Republican their entire life and can`t stomach voting for a candidate like Donald Trump.

And so again it`s just the politics of basic math. If you`re losing a voter or two for every voter you`re bringing in, the math just doesn`t add up.

HAYES: Yeah, and then on top of that, there`s this sort of ground game question which we`re going to sort of get a sense of.

Hari, very quickly, do you think it`s possible for Hillary Clinton to do something like, say, lose Ohio and end up winning, say, North Carolina?

SEVUGAN: Yeah. I do. And, you know, the thing is, she can do that. The fundamental here is that there are a ton of routes for her to get to 270. There`s only one for Donald Trump.

HAYES: That would really be fascinating, losing Ohio and winning North Carolina.

Hari Sevugan and Katie Packer, great thanks. Really appreciate it.

That is All In for this evening. The Rachel Maddow show starts right now.