Show: ALL IN with CHRIS HAYES Date: June 24, 2016 Guest: Ed Luce, Dean Baker, Laura Flanders, McKay Coppins
CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST (voice-over): Tonight on ALL IN --
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This means that the U.K. has voted to leave the European Union.
HAYES: The United Kingdom leaves the E.U. and shakes up the entire world.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The sun has risen on an independent United Kingdom.
HAYES: Tonight, how did this happen? And what does it mean for Europe and beyond?
Then, the American reaction.
The jaw-dropping spectacle of Donald Trump`s golf course response to a global political earthquake. And how he plans to profit off today`s crisis.
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESUMPTIVE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: When the pound goes down, more people are coming to Turnberry, frankly.
HAYES: And the American parallels. What today`s massive victory for right-wing nationalism tells us about Clinton versus Trump.
TRUMP: I would build a wall bigger, better, stronger, than any wall. Nobody comes in.
HAYES: When ALL IN starts right now.
HAYES: Good evening from New York. I`m Chris Hayes. One of the most seismic events in recent world history just took place last night. A geopolitical earthquake that will send shock waves through the international community and global financial markets for years to come.
This morning, we woke up to a brave new world. After Great Britain voted in a referendum to leave the European Union, marking the first of 28 member states ever to do so. In choosing Brexit, British exit from the E.U., voters rejected the council of elites, political leaders and economic experts the world over, including their own prime minister, the Bank of England, the British treasury, the International Monetary Fund, Nobel Prize-winning economists, and President Barack Obama who made his case in person against Brexit during in a visit to the U.K. in April.
And now, here we are -- the whole world at this moment careening out into uncharted territory. Tonight on this show, we`re going to be talking about how this happened, where Britain goes from here what all this tells us about our own politics here in the U.S.
But, first we want to take a moment to absorb what just happened in the U.K. and try to understand what it means.
Very few people expected this day to come. Polls had showed a slight edge for staying in the E.U. on the eve of the referendum, while betting markets heavily favored the remain side. But in the end, the margin was surprisingly wide, with Britons voting leave by 42 percent to 48 percent. And while the majority of voters in the capital city of London voted to remain, along with the voters in Scotland and Northern Ireland, strong majorities in England and Wales opted to leave lift paid coalition of largely older and whiter voters with fewer years of education.
This morning, in the cold light of day some of those leave voters were stunned by the magnitude of what they had just done.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I`m shocked that we actually have voted to leave. I didn`t think that was going to happen. My vote I didn`t think was going to matter. I thought we were going to remain. The period of uncertainty we`re going to have in the next couple of months, I think that`s been magnified now. So, yes, quite worried.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This morning, the reality is hitting in and the regrets are filling in actually that we have actually left E.U. Very disappointed. The whole family this morning, even though a majority of us voted to leave, we are actually regretting it today.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: It will take a process of two years give or take for the U.K. to fully terminate its E.U. membership. But already, some massive changes are under way, starting with the collapse of the current government under Prime Minister David Cameron.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DAVID CAMERON, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: I will do everything I can as prime minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months. But I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Cameron will leave office by October and the process to pick his successor yet to be determined. Meanwhile, leaders in Scotland, which voted to remain, are seeking a second vote on independence from the U.K. Northern Ireland too could consider leaving Great Britain and eventually joining with a united Ireland.
By the time the U.K.`s actually out of the E.U. it might look like an entirely different country, it might be several different countries, some of them part of the E.U., while the U.K. remains outside.
Global financial markets plummeted today essentially across the board over uncertainty. Not everyone thinks this was such a bad outcome. "Guardian" reports that Russia and Iran are both delighting in the U.K.`s rejection of the E.U. While far-right leaders around Europe, including France`s Marine Le Pen, the Netherland`s Geert Wilders, hailed the results, calling on their own nations to follow Great Britain`s example.
Presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump visiting one of his golf courses in Scotland today predicted a broader turn towards nationalism across the continent.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: People want to take their country back. They want to have independence in a sense. And you see it with Europe, all over Europe. You`re going to have more than just, in my opinion, more than just what happened last night. You`re going to have I think many other cases where they want to take their borders back, they want to take their monetary back, they want to take a lot of things back. They want to be able to have a country again.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: And if that happens, if Brexit was just the first domino to fall, this could be the beginning of the end of the entire European project. A remarkable and we must say anomalous 70-year period of stability and cooperation that was forged out of the ashes of the deadliest, most gruesome war in human history.
Joining me now, Edward Luce, chief U.S. columnist and commentator with "Financial Times", Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic Policy and Research, Laura Flanders, host of "The Laura Flanders Show," contributing write on my magazine, "The Nation."
It`s great to have you all.
Edward, let me start with you. Before the whens and whys, the thing at the most macro level that I think had me up late last night tossing and turning was who this empowers? Who it empowers globally? Who it empowers in the continent? From Marine Le Pen, to Geert Wilders?
It seems to me to put a lot of force and energy into some of the most nationalistic forces in Europe right now.
EDWARD LUCE, THE FINANCIAL TIMES: It does indeed. I mean, I think the chain reaction scenario that Donald Trump was predicting just now and clearly hoping for across Europe is all too possible to imagine. It just takes 300,000 signatures to trigger a referendum in the Netherlands, for example.
The French, of course, one of the twin motors of Europe historically along with Germany, are polling at more than 60 percent, according to a Pew poll last week, wanting to leave the E.U. Higher even than Britain.
So, the far right there are going to be wanting to use this as a lever to get a Frexit referendum. The knock-on effect in Europe is obvious.
But I think there`s a global backlash against democracy. I mean, Trump is the most obvious example. But I used to be based in the Philippines. There`s a guy there called Rodrigo Duterte, you know, who throws people out of helicopters. He was mayor of a city in the south of the country. He throws people out of helicopters, criminals, to keep the crime rate down. He`s just been elected president in the Philippines.
There is a sort of middle finger going up to democracy as normal, way beyond the west.
HAYES: Dean, I want to get your take and Laura as well, but I want to push back on that for a second. To say a middle finger to democracy, what could be more democratic than a straight up or down referendum vote in which the voters of the U.K. decided they no longer wish to be part of the E.U.? How is that a middle finger to democracy? That looks like democracy in its essence.
LUCE: Sorry, are you asking me?
HAYES: I am, you, yes.
LUCE: I beg your pardon. It`s a middle finger to business as usual, democracy as usual.
LUCE: It`s a middle finger to the elites, it`s a middle finger to London and Brussels in the case of the Brexit vote, and clearly with the Trump support, to Washington.
I think it`s just a convenient lightning rod. You quoted a couple of people at the beginning of the program saying, essentially, they thought this was a protest vote.
LUCE: They woke up to find it actually happened. Well, then, perhaps there are a lot of voters out there who are a little bit like the financial markets. They expected a certain outcome, and voted on that basis.
So, you know, I think it`s a lightning rod to express contempt for democracy as normal, not for democracy as such.
LAURA FLANDERS, THE LAURA FLANDERS SHOW: I mean, I would push back on that in the way I think you were going earlier in that this does have democracy at the center, this is about democracy. But I think it`s the lack of it, the lack of it in Europe. The unelected European board, the Central European Board that is an embodiment of lack of democracy and is in itself kind of insulated from popular pressure.
I think this is the national state, the state sort of sowing the harvest that Brussels, London if you will, sowing what Brussels, harvesting what Brussels has sown. That this is indeed a protest vote, it`s a use of democracy against a very undemocratic institution.
And the other thing that it is, it`s a reflection of -- well, I don`t know what do they think? They thought people were just expounding hot air when they said vast inequality, the failure to share the wealth weakens the economy, weakens society. Did they think we were kidding? I mean, this is that reflected in reality.
HAYES: Dean, you have been a strong critic of economic management in the E.U. and particularly as regards countries like Ireland and Greece and so forth. I mean, some people make the case that was part of what was here, although in some ways, you know, the U.K. has been isolated because they have the pound, they haven`t been waterboarded underneath German austerity the way, say, the Greeks are.
What`s your read on that?
DEAN BAKER, CENTER FOR ECONOMIC & POLICY RESEARCH: You know, a couple of things. First off, U.K. by its own volition has been the route of austerity.
HAYES: That`s right. They voted for it themselves. No one imposed it on them, right.
BAKER: Exactly. They vote voted for it themselves. You know, similar outcomes, not as bad as you`ve seen across the eurozone, still their economy`s not been great. Most people have very little to show over the last eight years, nine years. You`ve had cuts in public services. National Health Service has been a big issue. People are talking about older people, older people need health care.
By a lot of accounts, the National Health Service has deteriorated because of budget cuts. Hasn`t been forced by Brussels but nonetheless, people may not realize that. You know, the Brexit people are blaming that on immigrants, it wasn`t an immigrant story, the fact is people they voted chose to make those cuts, they should have realized that they but didn`t. They realized -- they blamed Brussels.
But, you know, taking a step further. You know, we hear stories of horrible fallout, the case you were talking about where this is the first step, when it`s France, then whoever else -- well, part of that story will be depending on the reaction of the European Union leadership. So, if their response is, we`re going to punish them, we`re going to make them feel the pain so no one else wants to do this -- well, that`s an incredible downward path. There`s the Old Monty Python line, the beatings will continue until morale improves. And that is a disaster.
And what you have to hope for is we have a little learning, some signs of intelligent life in the eurozone, we`ll have to see. That`s my hope.
FLANDERS: I will say, Dean knows this better than I do, the level of inequality in the U.K. is something that has to be looked at very closely. We have in the last two years evidence to suggest from the National Board of Statistic in the U.K. that you`ve seen an increase in wealth going to the top 1 percent of something like 21 percent, very fast growth of wealth going to the top 1 percent, with the bottom 45 percent of the population sharing 9 percent of the wealth.
You have, again, surveys of property, pensions, share wealth, housing, amounting to an average in London of something like a million-plus of the average family, versus the bottom 10 percent, something like 12,000 pounds. The contrast is huge. And this is one of the things at the heart of the problem.
So, yes, you can say -- well, they did vote for austerity themselves. They`ll feel more pain. They`re already feeling the pain.
LUCE: They`re going to be feeling worse pain because of this.
FLANDERS: For sure. This is not a rational vote.
LUCE: There`s going to be deeper austerity.
FLANDERS: For sure.
LUCE: Just to push back a little bit, the average tax rates across the rest of the continent, the rest of the European Union, are way more progressive for the most part than they are in Britain. This is the same electorate that voted in the conservative, voted back a conservative government, with the majority last year.
So, I think, you know, it might be misplaced. It`s definitely misplaced. But the idea that Europe is the problem, the cause of Britain`s inequalities, is I think a very bad misreading.
FLANDERS: But it is the argument that the leave contingent made.
HAYES: It`s also one of the things where so much of our reasoning, we see this here with Trump, so much of our political reasoning is, if my enemy is against it, then I`m for it. If my enemy is for it, I`m against it. If the people I don`t like are on the other side -- I mean, I have to say as someone who would have voted to remain were I voting in this election and was actually upset last night, nothing made me want to vote leave more than the condescending tutting, a certain cadre of the global financial elite, telling these -- you know, you idiot British voters better get your act together or we`re going to take our money and run, Ed.
BAKER: One thing I think we`re almost certain to see is Britain`s financial industry is going to pay a price. If someone wanted to kick Britain`s financial industry, they did it. You might see a collapse of the London financial real estate market, which my view would be all for the positive and might not take the form I`d like, but you know, very bloated market. It`s been a safe haven for rich people around the world, may no longer be the case.
LUCE: For sure. I mean, Britain had, you could argue, the best of both worlds. It was in the European Union, therefore in the single market, but not a part of the eurozone. It didn`t have to wear that pseudo-monetarist straitjacket that members of the Eurozone are forced to wear. So, it was able to rebuff.
It was also permitted to -- is permitted to be the center of trading of the euro. That`s almost certainly going to end now as a result of this. And that`s a lot of business. That`s a lot of global bank headquarters. That`s a lot of job.
Whatever you think of the over-financialization of the British or American economy, that is real economic activity.
HAYES: Ed Luce, Dean Baker --
FLANDERS: The city of London voted 75 percent to stay.
FLANDERS: And they found out they didn`t actually rule the world.
HAYES: That`s right.
Ed Luce, Dean Baker, and Laura Flanders, thank you all, appreciate it.
Still to come, the unnerving parallels between the Brexit and our 2016 election. What we can learn from the people who voted to leave and their demographic similarities to Trump supporters, ahead.
But, first, Donald Trump`s bizarre press conference following the momentous geopolitical vote that was comprised mostly of bragging about his golf course. That story and the incredible footage are just two minutes away.
HAYES: All right. It is a very high bar, but I`ll say this. Today might have given us one of the strangest, perhaps the strangest scenes in American presidential campaign history. When Donald Trump arrived in Scotland just hours after the most consequential geopolitical event in recent history, Trump began as he often does with a tweet. "Just arrived in Scotland, place is going wild over the vote, they took their country back just like we`ll take America back, no games!"
That even as Scotland as you can see was one of the strongholds of the remain portion of the vote. And then once at his destination in Turnberry, Scotland, for the opening of his golf resort, and sporting a "make America great again" hat, Trump offered a brief acknowledgement of the monumental Brexit vote before launching into a 10-minute review of the greatness of his golf course and its attendant buildings.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Very historic day for a lot of reasons. Not only Turnberry. This was one of the big votes in the history of Europe, and Scotland and everywhere. It was very exciting coming in. And we were landing and we had just heard the results so I wish everybody a lot of luck. I think that it`s purely historic.
We`ve taken the lighthouse, which is a very, very important building in Florida -- I mean, in Scotland -- and we`ve taken that building and made it something really special. Inside the light house right now is incredible suites, brand-new sprinkler system, the highest level. A lot of the people think this will be the greatest par 3 anywhere in the world, considered one of the most beautiful buildings in golf.
I was with Tom Watson chipped in from an area you couldn`t hit the green let alone get it in the hole. But now, since we opened, we opened a number of weeks ago, the course, and we haven`t had an empty slot.
Peter, you`ll be happy to hear to hear this. It`s one empty slot. It`s from morning until night. The reviews of the course have been phenomenal. Not just like good. Even people that truly hate me are saying it`s the best they`ve ever seen.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Keep in mind, this is while global financial panic is happening. After that three of Trump`s children who were traveling with him took turns at thanking their dad for the opportunity to work on the family business. And then, finally, Trump took questions.
It was only then that Trump got around to offering further thoughts on this rather important geopolitical event. At this moment of profound uncertainty, appears first interested in how well he might make out on the small scale followed by how well he might make out on a large scale.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Look, if the pound goes down they`ll do more business. The pound goes down, more people are coming to Turnberry, frankly, and the pound has gone down.
What I like is that I love to see people take their country back. And that`s really what`s happening in the United States. And I think you see that. And that`s what`s happening in many other places in the world. They`re tired of it. They want to take their countries back.
I can tell you, I have a lot of friends living in Germany that have always been very proud Germans, to a level that you wouldn`t believe. Now those same people, some of them, are saying they`re leaving Germany, they`re moving. They never thought of moving. Now, they`re thinking about moving, because of the tremendous influx of people.
You know what`s happening in Germany. It`s a real problem.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Not to be forgotten, it was all finished off with a ribbon cutting.
Joining me now, McKay Coppins, political writer for "BuzzFeed," "Off in the Wilderness, Deep Inside the Republican Party`s Combative, Contentious, Chaotic Quest to Take the White House."
This was really -- I mean, in the -- I was watching this just -- I mean, how long is he going to -- my twitter feed, the other screens that I have access to, are just losing their minds about what is happening.
MCKAY COPPINS, BUZZFEED: Right.
HAYES: And it`s like, I couldn`t believe what I was watching.
COPPINS: Is this bizarre? So I think you see a couple of things. I got up early to watch this, I`m happy I did.
I mean, I think two things here. One is that Donald Trump filters all current events and especially economic developments through a very specific prism, which is how it affects the Trump Organization.
COPPINS: And him. Right?
HAYES: Right. It`s like -- yeah. This might be the catastrophic end of the European project, but more people at Turnberry.
COPPINS: More people are going to come to Turnberry. Which is interesting because he`s this populist and claims to be speaking for the little guy and the white working class, instead it`s all about his very specific portfolio of businesses. That`s one interesting thing.
The other interesting thing here is that this was such an opportunity for him. That he didn`t really politically latch on to.
HAYES: That`s a good point.
COPPINS: He started to get there eventually but this was a huge victory for what he --
HAYES: For Trumpism.
COPPINS: For Trumpism, exactly, for his blend of nationalism and populism and anti-immigrant fervor, and he could have, should have gone out there with a great -- with prepared remarks and said, this isn`t just in our country, it`s sweeping the world, people are tired of the status quo, they`re tired of the political establishment.
HAYES: Too much immigration, the elites are keeping them down. He didn`t do any of that.
COPPINS: It`s all bizarre.
HAYES: Part of this goes to this elemental thing that the kind of person that you want as president, independent of their politics, which is sort of curiosity about the world, knowledge.
HAYES: This is him just a few weeks ago, with Michael Wolff, Brexit, your position? Huh? Brexit? The Brits leaving the E.U., I prompt, realizing his lack of familiarity, one of the pressing issues in Europe for him is no concern. Oh yeah, I think they should leave.
HAYES: Like, what do you want for lunch?
COPPINS: Totally. This is one of the biggest things happening in the world. He didn`t learn about it until two weeks ago. Look, we were talking about this off-air.
I don`t blame anyone -- there`s a story and I shared it impulsively and I wish I hadn`t about all the people in Britain who are feverishly Googling about the E.U. after the vote ended and people saying, look at these stupid voters.
Look, people don`t follow this stuff closely. And I wish -- we shouldn`t laugh at them. But he is the presumptive nominee of the Republican Party.
HAYES: The presumptive nominee in the country that is the site of the most epochal thing to happen in global geopolitics probably since, I don`t know, the Iraq war, maybe 9/11. And he`s standing there talking about how great the par 3 is and the lighthouse.
COPPINS: The lighthouse.
HAYES: For ten minutes. With no evident knowledge, facility, or curiosity about what he is in the midst of.
COPPINS: Right. And in fact, I thought it was funny that even FOX News cut away from that for a little while.
COPPINS: Laughing, they couldn`t even cop taken their laughter.
HAYES: The golf talk, it`s like the Golf Channel.
McKay Coppins, thank you for agreeing with me about how ridiculous that was.
HAYES: Up next, an in-depth introduction to some of the key players involved in this referendum. Oh my God. That`s just after this short break.
HAYES: This British referendum to leave the E.U. was not something that had to happen. In 2013, Prime Minister David Cameron promised he would hold the referendum if re-elected and it was a vow designed to placate anti-E.U. members of his own Conservative Party.
He reportedly worked out the plan at Chicago`s O`Hare International Airport the year before.
But that political ploy which probably seemed low risk at the time has now blown up in Cameron`s face and he plans to step down as prime minister. The front-runner to replace him is former London Mayor Boris Johnson, seen here getting stuck on a zip line while holding British flags during the 2012 Olympics in London.
Johnson is in some ways a Trumpian figure, and not just because of the hair. Like Trump, Johnson was born to privilege in New York City. But presents himself as a populist. Unlike Trump he`s a bracingly assured writer and thinker, and with an eye on taking Cameron`s job, Johnson was the most prominent voice in the leave campaign, arguing that exports would help keep Britain economically healthy.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BORIS JOHNSON, FORMER LONDON MAYOR: We export I`m proud to say we export cake, in growing quantities of particularly dense and glutinous chocolate cake. We export from Walthamstow to France. They love our cake in France.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Johnson campaigning on a bus, claiming Britain sends the E.U. 350 million pounds. The pro-Brexit camp said it would go to National Health Service instead. That figure was debunked, but more importantly, pro- Brexit politician Nigel Farage admitted today the promise was empty.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The 350 million pounds a week we sent to the E.U. which we will no longer send to the E.U. Can you guarantee that`s going to the NHS?
NIGEL FARAGE, BRITISH POLITICIAN: No, I can`t. I would never have made that claim. It was one of the mistakes the leave campaign made.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hold on a moment, that was one of your adverts.
FARAGE: It wasn`t one of my adverts. I can assure you.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That was one of the leave campaign adverts, that money was going to the NHS.
FARAGE: I think they made a mistake.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That`s why many people voted.
FARAGE: They made a mistake doing that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Farage is leader of the U.K. Independence Party, a Euro skeptic right wing party. And among other things responsible for a pro-Brexit, anti-migrant poster widely decried as racist. Farage celebrated the Brexit this morning by stating that Britain had voted to leave the E.U., quote, "without a single bullet being fired" despite the assassination of pro- remain labor MP Jo Cox last week.
He cast the vote in us versus them terms that would be familiar to Sarah Palin.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
FARAGE: This will be a victory for real people -- a victory for ordinary people, a victory for decent people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Coming up, we`ll break down the strong overlap between the coalition for Brexit in Britain and the coalition behind Donald Trump in the U.S. That`s next.
HAYES: There were huge demographic differences in who voted for the UK to stay in the EU and who voted to leave. This breakdown of data from a YouGov poll spells it out, 18 to 24-year-olds overwhelmingly wanted to remain while people over 65 were overwhelmingly for Brexit.
As you can see the leave vote driven by the people who will have, on average, the fewest years to live with the decision. There are also some significant regional differences -- cosmopolitan London voted overwhelmingly to remain, while the older and whiter areas outside the big cities known as little England voted to go.
And while white voters favored Brexit leading up to yesterday`s vote, just about every other group, including black Caribbean, Pakistani, and Chinese voters voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU.
Joining me now, Matthew McGregor, 2012 Obama campaign staffer, former adviser to British labor leader Ed Milliband in Britain`s 2015 election. And Matthew, thanks for joining me.
I feel like you have a unique view on all of this. You`ve worked on campaigns on both sides of the Atlantic.
MATTHEW MCGREGOR, 2012 OBAMA CAMPAIGN STAFFER: Yeah, as you said, 2012 and then in the UK over the last few years.
And this is something that`s been brewing for a while. I think this result is a shock and it`s very hard to take for a lot of people, most of my friends voted to remain. But I don`t think it`s a huge shock to people who have been following some of the deeper underlying trends.
You talked about the big demographic differences. I think that one of the big things is the class difference. Working-class people, DE groups as we call them in UK, overwhelmingly voted to leave. And those are the groups that have been hit hardest, not just by the global recession recently, but over a long period of time with wage stagnation. These are people who have been left behind, people who haven`t had the pay rises that productivity has deserved, and they`re angry. And we were a very divided country and the results showed that.
HAYES: Yeah, so let`s talk about that, the sort of class strata here. I mean, are those folks -- I mean, one of the differences in the U.S. and the UK in this respect is the U.S. is a more diverse country. So the percent white is significantly lower. I think we have that data. You know, the U.S. is about 55 percent, 60 percent non-Hispanic white, the UK is around 80 percent, right -- 85 percent.
When you`re talking about the working class, what are the politics of the folks -- do you have Labour working-class folks voting to leave?
MCGREGOR: Absolutely, yeah. And this is a big problem for the Labour Party going forward in terms of what the country does to negotiate the exit. Labour voters in the Midlands, Labour voters in the northeast, even Labour voters in some areas of London, voted to leave. And that`s a big problem for the leadership of the Labour Party. It`s a big problem how we try and rebuild a coalition that can get us back into office in 2020 or sooner if there`s an election.
HAYES: Because labor doesn`t have the advantage that the Obama coalition has which is just the demographics work in the Obama coalition`s favor much better. You can cobble together essentially enough liberal white voters to build a majority in a way that is still not possible in the UK. It feels like where it`s not possible under the current political valances.
MCGREGOR: It`s not possible for demographic reasons and also where those people live, because of the boundaries of the districts, but also because of some of the kind of micro trends. Scotland, for example, is a country that`s traditionally been overwhelmingly Labour. But Labour`s lost over -- been losing over the last few years and lost catastrophically the last election.
So putting together a coalition is a really big challenge for the Labour Party. And they might have to to it really soon, there`s a good chance there will be a general election much sooner than the next scheduled one, possibly even before the end the year.
HAYES: And so if that`s the case, I maen, how much also is this essentially -- there`s this question about how much this is a kind of proxy vote on diversity, race, immigration. How much did you -- having worked in politics very recently in the UK, how much do you read it as that?
MCGREGOR: People are really. People are really, really angry. And immigration is one of the things that they talk about. I think immigration is something that`s been actually driving some of the labor market challenges, the wage stagnation, the lack of jobs.
HAYES: So, just to be clear here, you don`t think it`s scapegoating, you think there`s negative economic effects?
MCGREGOR: There are problems with discrimination and racism in the UK that we have in lots of countries, and that shouldn`t be downplayed, I don`t want to downplay that.
But at the same time, that`s something that people are holding on to to talk about much broader issues, ways in which immigration has suppressed labor market, the jobs that people can get, and wage increases that just haven`t transpired.
HAYES: One of the wrinkles here, of course, is that when we talk about immigration here very much in terms of race, much of the immigration there, particularly in sort of competition for low-wage jobs, is coming from places like Poland or Bulgaria in the Schengen area, where it`s not necessarily a racial difference.
MCGREGOR: No, exactly right. And also if you look at some of the geography, areas that have -- actually do have high immigration rates, voted to remain. And so I don`t think this is a...
HAYES: That`s interesting.
MCGREGOR: I don`t think this is a necessarily a pure issue of racism, but it is something that is representative of the austerity that people feel that they faced. And is -- the vote I think is a reflection of government policies as well as some of the broader challenges that are happening in the economy.
Matthew McGregor, thanks for your time tonight, really appreciate it.
Still to come, Bernie Sanders makes some big news regarding his support for Hillary Clinton.
Plus, new clarity on why he just did three rallies in two days. But first, why are these men on the ground during a Donald Trump press conference? That story right after this break.
HAYES: Shortly after Donald Trump arrived in Scotland today on the heels of the monumental Brexit vote, the presumptive Republican nominee held a press conference to, of course, marvel at the renovations made to his golf course in excruciating detail. And for much for that press conference, there were these red golf balls on the grass all around him, which wouldn`t necessarily be so strange on a golf course except if we zoom in a little to see that those golf balls all had Nazi swastikas on them.
Why was trump giving a press conference surrounded by Nazi golf balls? The answer in 60 seconds.
HAYES: So, Donald Trump spoke today at his golf course in Turnberry, Scotland surrounded by red golf balls emblazoned with swastikas. Why did Trump speak amidst dozens of golf balls bearing nazi paraphernalia? Well, as Trump first took the podium, before he even spoke a protester wearing a Turnberry zip-up dumped the red golf balls at Trump`s feet claiming he was handing out the balls on behalf of Trump and the Turnberry clubhouse.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: On the clubhouse`s part, the new Trump Turnberry range and I forgot to hand them out before, I`m very sorry, Mr. Trump. And thank you. I apologize.
TRUMP: Get him out.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You can hand them out. Here they are.
Sorry, Mr. Trump.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: After the protester, a very cool customer, British comedian named Simon Broadkin, was escorted out by security, Trump delivered his remarks and took questions as those swastika golf balls remained scattered around his feet.
Only a full 20 minutes later did some of Trump`s, perhaps concerned about the optics, sneak in to clean up the Nazi balls, collecting them in hats reading "Make Turnberry Great Again."
HAYES: Bernie Sanders is still campaigning. Today, he took a short tour of New York, encouraging his supporters to continue the revolution by running for local office. He stopped by Albany to give a new speech, which the campaign is calling where we go from here. And so far it`s been unclear exactly where Sanders does go from here, since we now have a presumptive Democratic nominee and it`s not him.
Today, Sanders tried to clarify things.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are you going to vote for Hillary Clinton in November?
SANDERS: Yes. Yeah, I think the issue right here is I`m going to do everything I can to defeat Donald Trump. I think Trump in so many ways will be a disaster for this country if he were to be elected president.
WILLIE GEIST, NBC NEWS: Senator, if you`ve accepted the arithmetic of the race and you realize she`s likely to become the nominee, why not withdraw from the race?
SANDERS: Why would I want to do that when I want to find out make sure that we have the best platform that we possibly can, that we win the most delegates that we can, and that we transform the -- the goal of our campaign was to transform this nation.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Howard Dean, former chairman of the DNC, MSNBC political analyst, Hillary Clinton supporter from basically the beginning.
Sanders was doing an event with a congressional candidate. He has been telling his supporters to run for office. There`s this sort of turn towards trying to broaden out what he`s doing. And in some ways Democracy for America, which is the organization that became Dean for America, tried to do something similar.
HOWARD DEAN, FRM. DNC CHAIRMAN: We did. And it was successful. We actually do have a lot of people in state legislatures, water commissioners in Chicago who figured out a way to get around the machine and actually pull phosphorous out of the lake and stuff. So -- and he, of course he has -- his campaign was ten times my size, or eight times, or something, in terms of the amount of money he raised. So, I think it`s great.
HAYES: Is there -- it strikes me that one of the challenges is that it`s harder to galvanize and coalesce people when you don`t have a candidate and a campaign, particularly a presidential campaign, than when you do.
DEAN: Yeah, it`s true. But you`d be amazed how people respond to grassroots stuff. It`s not flashy and it doesn`t get in the paper but they really do respond.
I mean, we -- DFA is still raising a lot of money. And we`ve got 1 million members. And he`s going to have a whole lot more than that.
HAYES: Yeah, I mean, here`s the potential for a large and enduring organization.
HAYES: That can -- and one of the things I think, to think about, right, is when you`re talking about a state reps rate, a list -- you know, if you can send out an email for small-dollar donations to a state rep running who`s a true believer in Bernie Sanders` style of progressivism, $5,000 in a race like that could be enormous, $10,000.
DEAN: It is enormous, especially in a relatively small state, even in a big state. We got people in Chicago. We saved some of the aldermen that Rahm was going after in Chicago, the progressive aldermen. And so yeah, and Bernie as I said raised $200 million instead of $60 million, which is what we raised. I think this is a great development.
This is how you really change America is piece by piece, inch by inch, and bit by bit.
HAYES: There`s a vote today on the $15 minimum wage on the platform committee, that amendment put forward by Keith Ellison, who of course is a Sanders supporter, failed. I wonder how much you ultimately think the platform -- it seems to me the platform`s going to reflect what the nominee`s priorities are.
DEAN: Yes, it`s true. I think I probably would have just as soon seen that one pass. I know that Hillary technically is right on the $15 and the $12 and the Midwest and all that business, it`s not going to hurt her any to have $15 in the platform. It will make Bernie`s people happier, so that one I probably would have let go.
I mean, there are going to be things that Sanders can`t get in the platform.
DEAN: That was probably not one of them. But look, I`m not going to try to second-guess the platform writers.
HAYES: All right, Howard Dean, thanks for your time tonight, appreciate it.
Up next, when the thing you didn`t think could possibly happen happens, what Brexit can tell us about the 2016 election, if anything here at home, that`s next.
HAYES: All the things that may have captured the feeling many people had as last night`s Brexit results came in, there was this tweet that stuck with me, "strikes me we`re freaking out because it feels something like Trump being elected president."
There are some unnerving parallels, one of them is despite the fact that everyone knew there was a strong constituency of nationalist voters pushing for Brexit, there was a broad assumption that in the end, really, the majority of Britain wouldn`t actually go through with it.
And that is precisely what many people have been telling themselves about Donald Trump throughout the primary, now heading into the general.
Joining me now, Molly Ball, political correspondent for The Atlantic; MSNBC contributor Josh Barro, senior editor at Business Insider.
Molly, there are parallels that are good and parallels that are bad, and in some ways their vote didn`t have anything to do with us. How much sort of reflection do you see in this domestic political environment?
MOLLY BALL, THE ATLANTIC: I think it`s the same global currents powering both phenomena, rather than two situations that happen to be analogous. In both cases, you seem to see this dichotomy between sort of cosmopolitans and traditionalists. You seem to see an uprising, a sort of reactionary backlash of traditional societies and nationalism and nativism, and a sense of grievance against the sort of progressive, cosmopolitan ethos and the swiftness of demographic change.
And so I do think that there are a lot of similar things happening I think there are a lot of similar things happening in both these phenomena. And you know, the sort of idea of an out of touch cultural elite that did not anticipate the force and the passion of these populist currents.
HAYES: Well -- and one of the things that a few people had noted, right, about this, Josh, in terms of predictive, right, was that there was always this mismatch between the betting markets like, there`s no way. The polls were dead -- it was a toss-up in the polls more or less. I mean, it was clearly going to be very close.
And, you know, my feeling about the domestic political election is right now the RealClearPolitics average is, you know, 5 or 6 points. But 5 or 6 points is still -- you know, I mean, it`s still basically a 50/50 country. Like, it`s a lot -- and Donald Trump could be president.
JOSH BARRO, BUSINESS INSIDER: It`s been pretty stable. I mean, that one blip you can see on that chart is that one point where he -- where Trump had clinched the nomination and Clinton hadn`t. He had this weird moment in the election. Now it seems like things have returned back to normal, back where they`ve been for months and months and months.
And that`s the weird thing about this, people say, well, they said Brexit could never happen so maybe this could never happen. But we said Brexit could never happen in spite of these polls that were telling us Brexit could happen.
And similarly people said Trump couldn`t win the nomination even though he led polls almost the entire time from when he announced in June of last year until when he clinched the nomination. So, yeah, you shouldn`t assume that things that seem awful and ridiculous can`t happen.
But I think the lesson is to look at the polls. And what the polls are telling us isDonald Trump isn`t going to get elected. A big part of that is that Trump is not a referendum, he`s a person with all these negative personality traits. And the U.S. is different from Britain. Britain`s is 87 percent white, the U.S. is 63 percent white non-Hispanic.
The fact that nationalist movements don`t appeal very well to minority groups, especially when they are led by people who make lots of openly racist statements is a thing that will undermine Trump and make him perform more weakly than leave did.
HAYES: But there is this question, right -- Molly, there`s this -- and I don`t know how much empirical evidence, right, there has been. And I think there`s been -- and I think there`s been very little. But there`s this sort of -- I saw a lot of people today that worrying that there`s some secret set of Trump voters who aren`t telling the truth to pollsters, because they feel ashamed by the negative coverage of Trump, et cetera. But that they`re going to show up on election day.
BALL: Well, there was some examination of this during the primary. And it actually seemed like the polls -- I believe it was the live caller polls where presumably people would have been more reluctant, would not have shown up, those were more accurate than the online polls. So I don`t think we see that much of an effect.
But if I could go back to what Josh was saying about the polls right now. The polls right now, you know, it`s June. It`s a long way to go until November. But what we do see is that both of these candidates are substantially under 50 percent. Trump is not behind by very much. And if you believe that it`s as obvious as the demographic equation, and if you believe that Trump is doing as badly as some of the sort of political narratives had it, that gap ought to be a lot bigger than 4 or 5 or 6 points.
So I do think we shouldn`t underestimate the popularity of these kinds of sentiments to cross party lines the way they did in the UK.
BARRO: It`s June, but this election has been so unavoidable and exhaustingly saturating. People know these two candidates probably better than the two candidates they`ve had to choose from in any election in my lifetime in the U.S.
And I think that`s part of why the polling is was actually pretty stable in the Republican primary, even though the campaign was so loud and weird. Donald Trump led the whole time and his numbers didn`t even jump around all that much until he started to really consolidate at the end and go up.
So, I don`t think, you know, there`s a lot of room for there to be movement between now and November because voters have already thought about this so much.
BALL: Except for the fact that a lot of voters still haven`t made up their minds.
HAYES: Right. I mean, that`s the thing is they`re so far under 50, both of them, right. BARRO: Yeah, well...
HAYES: I mean, there`s some pool of voters -- I mean, those numbers aren`t adding to 50.
BARRO: Well, I mean these two candidates both have high unfavorable ratings. There are a lot of people who don`t like either candidate.
But Donald Trump`s unfavorable ratings are much higher than Hillary Clinton`s, I think are reason to think it`s very unlikely that he will succeed in closing ahead of her.
HAYES: There`s also -- I mean, you`re also probably going to have Gary Johnson on a lot of ballots and he might get 8 or 9 points. I think he`s polling around there.
But to Molly, to your point, the way I think about it to what you`re saying -- and I agree in this sense is, the kind of realization of Brexit was I think a lot of people felt like there was some guardrail on the road, right. And the car might jerk around and maybe people grab the wheel and they go off one way, but you hit the guardrail and bounce back on the road. But the realization was, there`s no guardrail, there`s just the outcome of the election. It`s not like -- you know, I hear people say, like, people say to me at barbecues, like he can`t really win. It`s like, no, he could. If he gets enough votes, he will be the president.
BARRO: The guardrail is Donald Trump`s 70 percent unfavorable rating.
BARRO: It`s not some broad principle about the electorate that it can`t do stupid things. It can. I just look at the polling evidence out there and it suggests to me that the electorate is not going to do this particular stupid thing.
HAYES: And Molly?
BALL: Yeah, but I think what we learned in the Republican primary is, as you were saying, there was this idea that there was this invisible hand of the establishment that was going to protect us from certain outcomes. And all of the other Republican candidates believed in that. So they didn`t think they had to do anything.
And I think there was a similar force at work in the Brexit vote where there was thought to be this controlling ethos of the establishmentarism that couldn`t be violated even by -- and a lot of voters themselves felt like they might as well make this vote, because it couldn`t possibly happen.
HAYES: That`s right. We`ll just bump into the guardrail.
BALL: And it turned -- we found in the Republican primary is that that establishment was either incompetent or nonexistent or a combination of both.
HAYES: Molly Ball and Josh Barro, thank you very much. Enjoy your weekend.
That is All In for this evening. The Rachel Maddow Show starts right now. Good evening, Rachel.
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