Show: ALL IN with CHRIS HAYES Date: April 4, 2016 Guest: Christian Schneider, James Carville, Ruth Conniff, Charlie Pierce, Janai Nelson, Gabriel Sherman
CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST (voice-over): Tonight on ALL IN --
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If I was presidential, would only have about 20 percent of you would be here because it would be boring as hell.
HAYES: Will the plot to stop Donald Trump finally work in Wisconsin?
SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Our campaign still has a clear path to earning 1,237 delegates before the convention.
HAYES: Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Ted Cruz all speak live in Wisconsin in this hour.
Tonight, why Trump is winning votes but losing the delegate fight. Exclusive reporting from inside the Trump campaign from "New York Magazine`s" Gabe Sherman.
Then, Clinton supporter James Carville on Hillary versus Bernie.
JAMES CARVILLE, HILLARY CLINTON SUPPORTER: Why would the Democrats nominate someone who`s not even a Democrat?
HAYES: And why early mistakes by Senator Sanders could prove insurmountable for his campaign.
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I don`t want to get Hillary Clinton more nervous than she already is.
HAYES: When ALL IN live from Wisconsin starts right now.
HAYES: Good evening from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. I`m Chris Hayes.
And we are coming to you live from the lakefront brewery on the eve of Wisconsin`s high stakes Republican and Democratic primaries. Just a few minutes from here, Donald Trump is due to take the stage any moment now accompanied by his wife Melania who is making a very rare campaign appearance. Just down the street from that Trump event, Bernie Sanders is holding a big rally at the exact same time.
Meanwhile, about 20 miles west of here, Ted Cruz about to speak at a rally in the Waukesha County, the state`s conservative stronghold.
In what may be a sign of their expectations for tomorrow, neither Hillary Clinton nor John Kasich are even in Wisconsin tonight. They both held earlier events in different parts of New York state where the primaries are still a couple of weeks away.
Joining me now from inside that Trump rally, NBC News correspondent, Jacob Rascon.
And, Jacob, a very different scene from what I gather at tonight`s Trump rally in downtown Milwaukee.
JACOB RASCON, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Donald Trump is expected here shortly with his wife Melania Trump as you said for the first time since South Carolina. And even though he`s behind in the polls, this is rare for him. Even though Ted Cruz is the front-runner here, he`s predicting a win, and predicting a big win. He`s been doing that all day.
We know he really wants it. He`s out with three events today, three events yesterday. Three events again on Saturday. He was doing a retail stop again for the first time since South Carolina pulling all the stops but not doing well in the polls -- Chris.
HAYES: Jacob, can you give me a sense of what it`s like inside there. My sense is that despite anticipation and a lot of protests outside and a big crowd, the venues fairly sparsely attended for a Trump rally. No line outside. No big protests as far as we can tell at this point.
RASCON: No, and this may be because the Bernie Sanders rally is going on at the same time. A will the of Trump protesters we see admit they are Bernie Sanders supporters. We met a few who are planning on protesting but they said, you know what, it`s too cold and we want to attend the Sanders rally.
One more point, Chris -- we`ve seen in Wisconsin, a change for Trump because of the protesters. He`s admitted that he is choosing smaller venues and screening the line so those disruptions don`t happen -- Chris.
HAYES: All right. NBC`s Jacob Rascon, thank you very much.
Joining me now from inside that Sanders rally, just down the block, MSNBC political correspondent Kasie Hunt.
What`s the scene like there, Kasie?
KASIE HUNT, MSNBC POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Chris. A relatively small crowd for a Bernie Sanders rally, although looking like we height get to a thousands or two strong here tonight. His rallies have actually been more sparsely attended over the course of the last 24 hours or so. We`ve seen three of those.
But, of course, Sanders expecting to win here in Wisconsin. He`s pushing on a hand to Laramie, Wyoming, tomorrow night, trying to show that he is going to stay in this to win it. So, I think there is a little bit of expectations game playing at this point. I think it`s going to be a question of assuming Sanders is able to pull out a win here. Just how wide that margin is, Chris.
HAYES: All right. Kasie Hunt, thank you.
Meanwhile, in the Republican primary, Donald Trump himself is acknowledging the high stakes of tomorrow`s vote here in Wisconsin where the 42 delegates up for grabs could ultimately be the difference between getting to the magic number of 1,237 delegates to lock up the nomination or going to a contested convention in Cleveland this July.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: If we do well here, folks, it`s over. If we don`t --
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
If we don`t win here, it`s not over. Wouldn`t you like to take the credit in Wisconsin for ending it?
Your vote is going to be important tomorrow because the world is watching, Wisconsin. The world is watching. They`re seeing if this momentum from this incredible movement is going to be slowed down.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Right now at that Trump event, Melania Trump, Trump`s wife is speaking. A rare campaign appearance when he`s struggling with women voters. Let`s take a listen.
MELANIA TRUMP, DONALD TRUMP`S WIFE: A great leader.
As you may know by now, when you attack him, he will punch back ten times harder.
No matter who you are, a man or a woman, he treats everyone equal.
He`s a fighter and if you elect him to be your president, he will fight for you and for our country. He will work for you and with you.
And together, we will make America strong and great again. Thank you.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
D. TRUMP: So beautiful.
She said do you mind, I wrote something. Do you mind if I say it? I said not at all. I said should I read it. She said I don`t want you to read it.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Get them out of here.
D. TRUMP: Thank you very much. I want to thank Melania for that. That was very special place.
You know, Wisconsin is a really special place, and we`ve been all over today. Speeches all over. We had one before, thousands and thousands of people standing outside of an airplane hangar because the hangar was packed.
And we had another one in the morning and it`s been an amazing day, and some phenomenal results. You see what`s happening with the polls. Boom, like a rocket ship. It`s like a rocket.
I guess I just heard when I walked in, one just came out that we`re ten points up. But don`t worry about that. Don`t pretend you didn`t hear that. Go out and vote tomorrow, OK? Go out and vote tomorrow.
You know, I always tell, I used to say this to politicians that run that are friends of mine, I said, pretend you`re a little bit behind, OK? That way you work hard. You never -- you never forget. There`s somebody that was --
HAYES: All right. Melania Trump introducing Donald Trump, which is rarity on the campaign trail.
Trump referencing a poll that had him up 10 points in Wisconsin. We should note, that`s a distinct outlier. That`s an ARG poll. ARG has had a pretty rough cycle predictably. The Real Clear Politics polling average does so Cruz in the league -- at lead this point.
Joining me now, Michael Steele, former RNC chair and an MSNBC political analyst. Christian Schneider, conservative columnist of "The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel".
And, Christian, let me start with you. Talk to me about your sense of the effectiveness of the various sort of conservative institutions that have lined up and coalesced around a never Trump message here in Wisconsin.
CHRISTIAN SCHNEIDER, COLUMNIST, MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL: Yes. I mean, that definitely has been part of the equation. You`ve had talk radio who, for months and months, have been hammering away at Trump. If I may be so humble, I have been as well. So, we`re kind of a different breed here in Wisconsin where over the last few years, you know, given Scott Walker and all the Act 10, the union stuff that was going on, everybody kind of coalesced around what actually conservatism is. Not kind of this, you know, vulgar of populism or whatever it is that Donald Trump is selling right now.
HAYES: Well, let me -- I want to ask a follow up on that and, Michael, I want to get your thoughts. Who gets to say what it is? What`s interesting is you`re seeing "National Review" and a lot of commentators, people at CPAC, others, essentially trying to rid Trump and his supporters out of the conservative movement. But if the Republican Party is a conservative party in this country, and a very significant portion of that party`s base likes Donald Trump, don`t they get a definitional say over what conservatism actually is?
MICHAEL STEELE, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Who is that to Chris?
HAYES: That`s to you, Christian.
SCHNEIDER: Oh, I`m sorry. I`m sitting here waiting.
Yes, I mean, I was at a Trump rally in Janesville last week and you heard Trump bring up Scott Walker and Scott Walker get booed. And you heard him bring up Paul Ryan and you heard Paul Ryan get booed. So, I`m not exactly sure what is going on here with the Trump campaign. These people are completely different thing than the conservatism that we`ve seen here in Wisconsin.
But, you know, on the other hand, you see a supposed surge from Ted Cruz. Let`s not kid ourselves, a lot of that surge is in large part because people are really dropping out. A lot of conservatives I`ve been talking to say that, you know, they are kind of voting for Ted Cruz almost as a term of their probation almost.
So, yes, it`s not that Ted Cruz is all that popular. It`s just he`s the one that can stop Donald Trump.
HAYES: Michael, Christian just mentioned Paul Ryan of Wisconsin --
HAYES: -- of Janesville, of Wisconsin, probably one of the most powerful Republicans in the country, if not the most powerful Republican in the whole country. So much Paul Ryan speculation floating around. You had Karl Rove saying fresh face. Some reporting from "The Huff Post" today saying that Charles Koch of all people have been saying to his friends that he thinks Paul Ryan could come riding in as the white knight on the fourth ballot in Cleveland, and then Ted Cruz sort of taking a veiled threat at that or veiled shot saying no chance for a white knight.
What do you make of all this?
STEELE: I think Ted Cruz and Donald Trump will have a lot to say about that and certainly their supporters will. I think it`s a little bit fanciful to think that someone would get the nomination who`s not run for the job in this cycle. You still -- I mean, the discounting of John Kasich at this point is almost disrespectful to the extent if he`s able to swing up into the Northeast and pull some votes there, he`s going to still walk into that convention with the third most delegates and will be a factor to be reckoned with.
So, I think a lot of this is wishful thinking by a lot of people in the party, particularly of how this convention is going to play itself out. Need to have reality check. You have two big behemoth candidates who very strong personalities, with very, very strong and vocal base support who are not just going to go into that good night because Paul Ryan is the alternative choice by the Koch brothers or anybody else.
This thing will be a battle royale and it`s one that Reince Priebus doesn`t want to have play out, despite may be his preference for one candidate over another. In the end, he`s got to let this process unfold and as cleanly as possible. Otherwise, it`s a mess.
HAYES: Christian, how well-regarded, powerful is Reince Priebus here in his home state of Wisconsin?
SCHNEIDER: He`s well-regarded. I mean, he was swept into office with Scott Walker and, you know, Paul Ryan and everything that was going on in 2010. So, I think he`s very well regarded.
I don`t -- you know, the position he`s been taking that everything is just fine and everything is just dandy, it`s a pretty interesting situation right now. But, yes, I mean, you`ve read in "Politico" that a lot of people in Wisconsin, a lot of Republicans are just trying to get to that convention with Trump not having enough delegates just so may be somebody like Paul Ryan can emerge. You know, if you have Cruz and Kasich and Trump all not having enough delegates, then you`ve got guys -- three guys that kind of have the stain, kind of the odor of not having won. So, a fresh face might be the one person that could actually bring everybody together.
I mean, if you hand it to Cruz and Trump had the most delegates then that splits the party right in half. A fresh face could kind of be kind of -- could bring everybody together as much as possible.
STEELE: I don`t know how that brings everybody together. I don`t know how fresh face is going to just take votes from Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. Good luck with that. I just don`t see that playing itself out the way people would like to draw it up.
The reality of it is, you`ve got three individuals that have gone to this convention, contested. They will contest that vote. They will negotiate the terms of engagement. They will negotiate because they`ll have the bodies on the committees, the relevant committees on the platform, as well as the rules committee. So, they`re going to be the ones to set the terms here, not anyone outside of that system.
HAYES: All right. Michael Steele and Christian Schneider, thanks for joining me. Appreciate it.
Coming up, we`ll have much more live coverage from here in Wisconsin where, as we mentioned, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders all holding rallies in this hour. We will check in on those.
But, first, our interview with Susan Sarandon last week caused quite a stir. And earlier today, I got to talk to prominent Clinton supporter James Carville and -- well, he did not hold back in his opinion of the Sanders campaign and its supporters. You`re going to want to watch what he has to say. It`s happening right after this break. Don`t go anywhere.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SANDERS: If we win here, we`re going to have a bounce going into New York state where I think we can win. If we win in New York state, between you and me, I don`t want to get Hillary Clinton more nervous than she already is. She`s already under a lot of pressure. Don`t tell her this, but I think we win here, we win in New York state. We`re on our way to the White House.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: While we`re awaiting Senator Bernie Sanders to appear before a crowd in Milwaukee, earlier, he made the last-minute appeal to voters while jabbing his opponent in Janesville, Wisconsin.
The latest Real Clear Politics average shows Sanders with a three-point lead over Clinton ahead of tomorrow`s primary here in Wisconsin, this as reporting on front page of "The New York Times" today reveals the Sanders campaign confronting reality of Clinton`s overwhelming pledged delegate lead. Top adviser of the Sanders campaign telling "The Times" what they perceive as missed opportunities to run a more aggressive campaign from the jump, for waiting to criticize Clinton on her paid speeches, to not attacking secretary of state`s use of private e-mail when she had that position.
Meanwhile, "New York Times" columnist Paul Krugman suggested the Sanders campaign has already gone too negative. Quote, "The problem is if it doesn`t work Sanders will have spent a couple of months validating Republican attacks on the Democratic nominee or if he somehow pulls off an incredible upset, deeply alienating lots of progressives he`s going to need himself."
As for Clinton, she`s already looking beyond Wisconsin, ahead to New York`s primary in two weeks. Clinton was at multiple events in the Empire State today, and in an interview earlier, questioned Sanders commitment to the Democratic Party.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I also believe it`s important that we elect more Democrats. I would love to see the Senate go back to being Democratic instead of having Republicans --
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS, ABC NEWS: You don`t think he can do that?
CLINTON: -- who won`t do their constitutional obligation. Well, there`s no indication there`s any interest there. I`m committed to election Democrats. I`m committed to raising money. I`m already helping to fund Democratic campaigns.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Joining me now, Democratic strategist James Carville. He is a Hillary Clinton supporter.
James, let me ask you this. As someone who is a veteran of a lot of Democratic Party elections, what have you learned by the enduring appeal of Bernie Sanders this late into the primary schedule?
CARVILLE: Look, to me, you know, I`m older. So, you`ve got to explain to me. We`ve had two enormously successful Democratic administrations, the presidency of President Clinton and administration of President Obama. We`ve had a disastrous Republican administration in the middle of all this. The Republican Party is cracking up right in front of our eyes.
So, about 47 percent of the Democratic Party answer to this is, hey, let`s nominate somebody who`s not even a Democrat. It utterly makes no sense to me. So, somebody will have to explain it. I mean, we are -- you know, our policy, Democratic policies have proven to be in terms of economic growth, in terms of the health care, in terms of foreign policy area truly ascendant. Why would we abandon these policies right now? I have no idea.
HAYES: So, it is -- it sounds like what I`m hearing from you is that you are surprised by Sanders performance thus far.
CARVILLE: Well, I`m more than surprised. I`m vexed is why two really successful presidencies and a really unsuccessful presidency, why would the Democrats nominate someone who`s not even a Democrat? I`m a little vexed at some level.
To me, it really doesn`t make any sense. And from everything that I see from our own polling to other polling, the Republican Party has likely to fracture to stay together. We have a chance to accomplish things that we only dreamed of, in terms of health care, in terms of financial regulation, in terms of climate, in terms of economic growth, in terms of foreign policy, in terms of defeating ISIS.
I think we are in a precipice of really doing great things. And I don`t really understand why don`t we just go out and do them.
HAYES: Well, part of the argument I think that folks that do back Sanders will make is that they there`s a kind of deeper problem, right, structurally about the sort of construction of money and politics, the way the system, as a whole works. The degree of representation of ordinary wage-earning, working class people, and what benefits they`ve seen from economic growth. I mean, isn`t that a message that the Democratic Party writ large should be hearing?
CARVILLE: I think so. If you look at incomes during the `90s when President Clinton was there they went up. If you look at now, you`re starting to see real job growth. You`re seeing something like 20 million people that didn`t have health insurance have it before. You`re seeing Dodd Trump.
Look, are there ways to improve? Of course. Is the argument we want to have, did you take campaign contributions from somebody who worked for an oil company? It`s ridiculous.
I mean, I think that Secretary Clinton has put out very detailed plans on reform, on Wall Street reform, on manufacturing, on ISIS and everything else. I mean, look, nothing is perfect in this world. But if you look at the last two Democratic administrations, boy, I mean it`s been some real sense of accomplishment here.
And you look at Dodd-Frank, there`s real accomplishment. And we`re going to throw that out over the side and turn to some hybrid socialism or something. I don`t buy it. I really don`t buy it.
I`m obviously sort of passionate about it. I understand these people have a point to do. We don`t need a revolution right now. We need to become the ascendant party. We need to get really top people on the issue Supreme Court, which President Obama has appointed. You know, we need to push through the climate regulations that`s been instituted by the president and stuff that Secretary Clinton has talked about.
Is Dodd-Frank perfect? No. Can we do more? Of course. But we don`t need to overturn everything we`ve done. Look at the health care plan. We`re something like 95 percent of people insured, when we get to Medicaid, it would be 95. Why dismantle that? It doesn`t make any sense.
HAYES: Let me ask you a question on politics here. I was looking at a fascinating chart of the net favorability or unfavorability of various presidential candidates.
HAYES: Donald Trump is setting all kinds of records in that unfavoribility. But number two behind him is Hillary Clinton who is unfavorables, broadly speaking, are relatively high. They`re higher than anyone except the last candidate as high was Bill Clinton in `92. Should that worry Democrats?
CARVILLE: Well, you know what? When they started every cockamamie lie from Richard Mellon-Scaife to "The Wall Street Journal" editorial page, to Ken Starr, to Benghazi committee, which the stated effect was to drive her numbers down when none of it amount to anything. And then you have Senator Sanders piling on this. What do you expect?
The media and Republican Party and certain people in the Democratic Party have just going on and piled on all this stupidity, which never amounts to anything. So, is it possible this would have the effect that the Trey Gowdy and company the desired effect that they set? Well, maybe it has. I think it`s going to change.
And I think -- you know, her campaign will see over a period of time, people will see this. But I`ve been going through this, Chris, since 1992 when I started the whole goofy thing. Why are Democrats piling on the Trey Gowdy, Ken Starr, you know, Breitbart, Drudge message? I have no idea why they`re complicit in this? When to me, it`s utterly ridiculous.
But, yes, if you go out, gee, look, after all this piling on, you know, we`ve knocked ten points off of her favorable. Well, wow wee chickadee.
HAYES: All right. James Carville, it is always a pleasure. Thank you very much for your time. I appreciate it.
CARVILLE: Thank you, Chris. I appreciate it, man. You bet.
HAYES: Still ahead, is Donald Trump getting out maneuvered by Cruz in the all-important scramble for convention delegates? An amazing new reporting on the Trump strategy from inside that campaign. The author of that piece, Gabe Sherman, will talk to me about what he learned ahead. And also, Bernie Sanders in Wisconsin.
All that coming up.
HAYES: After a long day of campaigning here in the Badger State, Bernie Sanders addressing a rally right in downtown Milwaukee. Let`s take a listen.
SANDERS: Not pleasant in our political life. But what I believe from the bottom of my heart is we cannot go forward as a nation unless we have the courage to honestly confront the real problems, the real issues that we face, and that is what this campaign is about.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
Truth number one, unpleasant but true: today in America, we have a corrupt campaign finance system which is undermining American democracy.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
Democracy is not a complicated process. It means everybody has one vote, majority plurality wins. What it does not mean is billionaires should be able to buy elections.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
HAYES: That`s Bernie Sanders speaking in Milwaukee after a long day here in Wisconsin.
Today, a piece is published that takes a look inside the weirdest, most unpredictable and we`ll see how success campaign in history. The author of that piece joins me. Don`t go anywhere.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CRUZ: Here this weekend, y`all are going to be electing 28 delegates. It is entirely possible the men and women gathered here will decide this entire primary, will decide this nomination. I am here asking for you to stand with us, to elect delegates who are supporting me to stand with us together because if Republicans unite, we win.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: While Donald Trump and John Kasich spent much of their weekend here campaigning here in the state of Wisconsin, Ted Cruz had a very different idea. He decided to travel to Fargo, North Dakota to make an in-person pitch to the state`s much coveted Republican delegation.
You see, GOP delegates from North Dakota are unique, because that state party does not tell them who to support, meaning they could vote for anyone on the first ballot at the RNC .
And Ted Cruz wanted to make sure those delegates slots were filled with people loyal to him. While the other campaigns sent surrogates to the state to glad hand and organize attendees, Cruz made an appearance at the event himself, headlining the convention on Saturday night, and the efforts paid off with dividends.
Even after North Dakota`s sole congressman endorsed Trump in a surprise move, The Cruz campaign identified 18 of the 25 delegates voted on as supporters, and according to Politico only one of the 25 delegates selected Sunday has publicly signaled he might back Trump.
NBC News, however, has allocated Cruz seven delegates, one to Trump with the rest uncommitted.
Now, what happened in North Dakota is not entirely unique as county and state conventions across the country. The Cruz campaign is out hustling and out organizing Trump and they show no signs of letting up.
It really makes you wonder if the Trump campaign actually has the skills, the capacity and the wherewithal to win the insider delegate game they will probably need to actually clinch the nomination.
As Gabe Sherman notes in an outstanding new profile of Trump`s team, Trump`s campaign employs a team of about a dozen people. His campaign lists 94 people on the payroll nationwide. Hillary Clinton has 765. Trump has no pollsters, media coaches or speechwriters. He focus groups nothing. He buys few ads. And when he does he likes to write them himself.
And while the Cruz campaign has been working behind the scenes for at least six months on delegate strategy, Trump hired his first serious advisor on the matter last week.
Joining me now is Gabriel Sherman, national editor at New York Magazine who again, just published that great profile on the unorthodox Trump campaign.
And Gabe, this is the real question to me, you`ve got such a small staff, first of all. The people that are the closest to him are not. I mean, even Corey Lewandowski who has been around politics, these are not super seasoned political operatives in any way shape or form. They are now going into a battle that isn`t just about media and publicity and things that Trump is quite adept at, it`s at the sort of blocking and tackling at the granular level of winning delegate by delegate. Do they have the capacity to do that?
GABRIEL SHERMAN, NEW YORK MAGAZINE: Well, really, you know, Chris, that`s right. The race, we`ve just entered a new race as of, you know, the last couple of weeks. And it`s clear that the team that Trump has around him was very good at getting him this far, but suddenly he finds himself engaged in trench warfare dealing with, you know, he has these giant tanks, you know, he flies in, does these huge rallies, but that`s not going to get him the delegates to peel off people who will make the difference in Cleveland.
And he`s confronted that. He`s hired Paul Manafort who legendarily helped Gerald Ford fend off Ronald Reagan`s floor fight in `76, but really the question is, is it too little, too late. Obviously, we won`t know until Cleveland, but he`s in a race against time to try to catch up in this delegate fight.
HAYES: One of the other things in your piece I thought was really interesting was the relationship with Trump and Roger Ailes of Fox, which has been one of the more fascinating sort of sub-plots of this campaign season.
You talk about a sort of acrimonious departure of one of his Ailes`s top lieutenants, a guy who sort of threatened to spill the beans, and Trump`s role in that exit. Tell me that story.
SHERMAN: It`s really fascinating.
And this sort of helped me connect the dots to figure out why Trump has been able to do something that no other Republicans have done, which is to go up against Fox News with impunity and kind of brazenly challenge Roger Ailes and Fox News.
And what I learned is that in 2013 when Roger Ailes fired his long time PR confidante who was privy to darkest, most interesting controversial secrets of Fox News, Donald Trump played mediator to helped them work out a severance deal for Roger Ailes`s PR confidante and learned all of the dirt that he was going to spill that Roger Ailes ended up paying millions of dollars to keep secret.
So, now Donald Trump goes into this fight knowing that Ailes presumably knows that he knows things that he doesn`t want public. And really that`s why although you`ve seen Fox fight back, it has not been a scorched Earth campaign. Roger Ailes has not turned over Fox News`s air waves to attack Trump 24/7 the way he`s done against his other political enemies.
HAYES: So, is your supposition, or your implication at least, that the knowledge, the sort of secret knowledge that Donald Trump has, the dirt he has on Roger Ailes has acted as a kind of shield throughout this campaign in terms of the coverage he`s getting from the network.
SHERMAN: You know, that was my -- that was basically what emerged from my reporting.
Now, it`s important to point out Trump himself did not say, you know, I`m using this against Roger Ailes. He did tell me that he mediated this private negotiation. I do know from my reporting that the dirt that Roger -- that Brian Lewis had was very damaging and so it just stands to reason that all these parties know what Trump knows. And that explains why, you know, he`s been able to get this far with attacking Ailes.
HAYES: Do -- in the time you spent with that campaign, do you have a sense that it is a machine capable of learning, which is to say they have had such sort of unexpected success and what they have been doing. Do they have the wherewithal to alter if they need to?
SHERMAN: Well, really, again, yeah whatever you think of Donald Trump, it is a remarkable political story that this band of outsiders has been able to upend the political establishment. Jeb Bush spent upwards of $150 million with this super PAC, so look how far that got him.
Yes, but now you point, Chris, to the real question, can they change? And I do report in my piece that Donald Trump, you know, has been told repeatedly by people in his inner circle, including Senator Jeff Sessions to lay off the personal attacks, stick to the issues of trade and immigration.
And we`ve seen a little bit more of a chase in Donald Trump over the last week. There was a kind of a really illuminating interview he gave to Maureen Dowd where he walked back and admitted mistakes, which, you know, the words Donald Trump and mistakes you usually don`t utter in the same sentence.
So, we`ve seen possibly the emergence of a course correction. But I point out in my piece, I think long-term it will be very difficult for Donald Trump to pivot if nothing else because he`s been Donald Trump for four decades in public life. So this is who he is.
HAYES: All right, Gabe Sherman, thanks so much for joining me. Appreciate it.
SHERMAN: Thank you.
HAYES: Coming up, unanimous decision at the Supreme Court today that is also a big win for liberals and for voting rights. We`ll look at this crucial decision upholding the one person, one vote rule. That`s ahead.
HAYES: Welcome back to Milwaukee. A great city on a great lake where the circus is in town, literally. There is a circus tonight at the Milwaukee Panther Arena right next door the Milwaukee Theater, that`s where Donald Trump has been playing ring leader. And just across the street from that theater, Bernie Sanders is rallying supporters at the Wisconsin Center.
We will take you there in just 60 seconds. Stay with us.
HAYES: Something rare happened at the Trump rally in Milwaukee tonight. Let`s go right to MSNBC national correspondent Trymaine Lee who I believe is outside that Trump rally. And Trymaine, what`s the scene been like there?
TRYMAINE LEE, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: I`ll tell you what, Chris, there`s a lot going on tonight just not outside this Trump rally. If you see behind me, there`s a barricade here. You see police vehicles.
But really it`s been quieter than we`ve seen. The beginning of the week, I`m in Jamesville (ph) and in Milwaukee there were protests, rallies, kind of what we`ve come to expect.
But then we went out to the western side of the state in Oclaire (ph) and Lacrosse and the scene was much different. It was relatively quiet in terms of protesters.
But one thing, again, it`s really cold tonight. It`s chilly. The NCAA championship game tonight. As you mentioned, you have Bernie Sanders around the corner. And it`s 28 degrees outside, Chris, so it`s very cold. It`s kind of a daunting ask to have folks out here protesting.
But again, besides the fact there aren`t any protesters out here, typically we`ve seen the lines at these Trump rallies stretch down the block in the thousands. We didn`t see that tonight. They were clustered in small groups, went in. And so it`s really quiet out here. Cold and quiet, Chris.
HAYES: All right, stay warm, Trymaine. Really, it`s really cold. It`s brick out there as we used to say in New York City in the 90s. We`ll break down the stakes of tomorrow`s primary here just ahead.
HAYES: You`ve been watching Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump as they hold events in downtown Milwaukee here in Wisconsin tonight. Ted Cruz is also campaigning about 20 miles away. Also, big news today from the U.S. Supreme Court, which upheld the basic principal of one person, one vote in the kind of decision you rarely see from the court at least on big controversial cases. A big win for liberals that is also unanimous.
In an 8-0 decision, the court maintained states must count all residents when drawing up legislative districts rather than basing those districts on eligible voters. Changing the one person, one vote principle could have disenfranchised areas with large populations of non-voters like children or immigrants who cannot legally vote.
As the New York Times points out, it could have shifted political power from city to rural areas, a move that would have benefited Republicans.
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg wrote in the decision "as the framers of the constitution and the 14th amendment comprehended representatives serve all residents not just those eligible or registered to vote."
Joining me now, Janai Nelson, associate director, counsel at the NAACP Legal Defense Fund and filed an amicus brief urging states to count total population.
Janai what does this ruling today mean?
JANAI NELSON, NAACP LEGAL DEFENSE FUND: Oh, it means so much for this democracy. Today was a big victory indeed. It means that states can continue to do what they have been doing for well over five decades. States can continue to count all residents as part of any and every electoral district whether it`s a school board election, whether it`s a city council district or a state assembly district. Everyone in the state should count not just those who are eligible to vote because, as you point out that would exclude 75 million children, 13 million of whom are African-American and there are many other groups that would have been excluded, and particularly those who have been historically excluded from voting and from being represented.
What today`s victory means is that the court recognizes that we should have an inclusive democracy, that we are indeed, per our constitution, a representative democracy, which means that everyone should be represented, not just those who are eligible voters.
HAYES: So that makes sense, and that seems straightforward. And this has been the status quo for a very long time. Who brought this case to try to make it not so?
NELSON: Well, you have two voters from rural districts in Texas. You`ve had -- they were white voters, and they brought this to -- with the encouragement, I should say, of a gentleman by the name of Ed Bloom who has been behind several Supreme Court challenges to take down tried and true principles of our constitution and to try to send us back to a retrograde era of time where we saw discrimination rampant in states in areas of education and voting. This was one such challenge where you had two plaintiffs who were put up to the task of trying to bring down a principle of our democracy that has been in place for decades, that has served us well, that nearly every state and local legislature relies upon for its redistricting.
So, these plaintiffs were trying to shift the power from cities and suburbs to rural districts and they lost.
HAYES: Right. Janai Nelson, thanks so much for illuminating that tonight. I really appreciate it.
Next, according to Donald Trump, the race is over if he wins Wisconsin. There are still lots of states left to vote. Where the race goes from here when we come back.
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TRUMP: If we don`t win here it`s not over.
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HAYES: All right, we are now just hours away from the polls opening tomorrow morning here in Wisconsin where Donald Trump`s take on what`s at stake is, as you might have guessed, a touch oversimplified.
There are 42 delegates up for tomorrow -- up for grabs in tomorrow`s GOP primary, 18 go to the statewide winner, the rest are allocated in groups of three to the winner of each of Wisconsin`s eight congressional districts.
Trump currently has 750 delegates in hand, which means he needs a little less than 500 more to secure the nomination before the convention.
If Trump were to somehow win every single delegate in Wisconsin, which seems unlikely, as most polls show him trailing Ted Cruz, he wouldn`t still need to win -- he would still need a little more than half the remaining delegates to secure the nomination.
These are the states that have yet to vote with the most delegates up to grabs. After Wisconsin, the race will shift to New York where polls have shown Trump with a massive lead. And on June 7, the last day of the primaries comes the biggest prize in the entire race, California, where polls show Trump up by single digits.
Joining me now here in Milwaukee, Charlie Pierce for Esquire; Ruth Conniff, editor-in-chief of The Progressive magazine. Ruth, as a Wisconsinite.
How likely -- so it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow in terms of this apportionment in the different congressional districts. Is there any reason suspect that a win statewide won`t transfer equally geographically across the state?
RUTH CONNIFF, THE PROGRESSIVE MAGAZINE: Sure. There`s a lot of reason to think that. I mean, there are very different regions of our state. We`re basically part of the Rust Belt in the southern part of the state. We have rural, northern and western part of the state that very pro-Trump. We have a Milwaukee suburban talk radio circuit, right, like talk radio.
HAYES: Like the heart of...
CONNIFF: Cruz land, basically because he`s not Trump, and our governor is part of that. Really his rise was fueled by Milwaukee talk radio, the suburbs of Milwaukee.
So, these are very different pieces of our state.
HAYES: Yeah, so we could see a situation tomorrow where because of this -- the different performance in congressional delegates, Trump does lose the state -- lose, but comes out of here with some delegates.
It is funny how, you know, I`ve been playing around FiveThirtyEight. Nate Silver, they put together like a can you get Trump to 1,237 simulator where you`re like apportioning. And it`s hilarious, because at this point, you know, five delegates here, three there, 10 there, 15. His projects have him like so close to that number just falling short a little bit is a world different between winning on the first ballot and not.
CHARLIE PIERCE, ESQUIRE: Yeah, I don`t think -- the thing is I don`t think it makes any difference to the people who are trying to deny him the nomination. If he finishes a thousands votes short or five, they`re still going to do it.
Do you think that have the wherewithal? This is my...
PIERCE: That is a great unanswered question, right?
HAYES: It`s like, is there fight in these people who have been so disorganized and feckless...
PIERCE: That`s the point. I think the fight is there. I think the organization is gone. I mean, the organization is a kindergarten recess. I mean, everybody has their own agenda, nobody is going to get out of the way for the party to pick Paul Ryan or John Kasich or god help us Mitt Romney.
If you`re going to deny the nomination to Trump and you`re a member of what I laughedly call the Republican establishment, you`ve got to deny it to Ted Cruz, too. And I don`t know if they`re together enough to shove two people out of the way.
HAYES: I`m curious to get your sense of how the Democratic race has played out here in Wisconsin. It feels on a national perspective like -- a sports commentator would say it`s getting a bit chippy, you know, in a football or a basketball game where it`s like getting a little rough, right. Tensions are high. It`s felt sort of heated.
Is that the way that it sort of played out on the ground here in Wisconsin?
CONNIFF: Well, I actually think that -- I mean, there`s a lot of talk now about Bernie Sanders finally being more critical of Hillary Clinton, which he really resisted for a long time talking about the Goldman Sachs speeches. He had some laugh lines in his speeches that I`ve seen at his rallies here where hetalks about they must have been great speeches, you know...
HAYES: Although, they have been -- I mean, that line of attack has -- it took him a little while in the beginning, but they have been doing that for a while.
CONNIFF: I mean, he is still talking about this very idealistic optimistic message. And he is hitting harder on this theme that Hillary is just not bringing that. She`s saying, you know, we have got to settle for what we can get. And he`s saying we got to dig deeper and we`ve got to think about what`s possible.
And I think to students in Wisconsin in particular, I don`t think it`s so much negativity. I think it`s more saying, you know, this is not so impossible. I mean, 50 years ago college was basically free at universities across the country, because tuition was so low. We could do it then. We can do it now. Like, let`s think about what is really possible.
HAYES: And that gets to me the fundamental dynamic on the Democratic race now, which is not what I would have anticipated in some ways, which is it feels locked into an equilibrium for the next basically 10 weeks, which is the Sanders campaign isn`t going anywhere. His supporters aren`t going anywhere. They have the money and the wherewithal and the organization to support. It is not a majority so far of the voters in the Democratic primary. And it`s hard to see way mathematically he creates a majority.
But you still end up with situation where June 7 you look around and it`s like 55 percent and 45 percent and what the Democratic Party does with that fact is the big question to me.
PIERCE: Well, I mean, they ought to be able to put it together, because they ought to see this as an opportunity and not a catastrophe like the other side.
Bernie Sanders is raising some serious issues. And the Democratic Party is the best vehicle within which to do something about them.
The Democratic Party should figure that out. But, I -- you know, my experience of the Democratic Party is they`re not real good at figuring stuff out.
HAYES: Well, that really does become the question as this goes further, right. I don`t see, it`s very hard to carve out the mathematical path for him to win in pledged delegates unless something big happens in terms of a whole bunch of big blowout wins. It could happen, but...
CONNIFF: I mean, that said (inaudible). They won six out of seven of the last primaries. They have to win big. Actually really need to win big in Wisconsin to really start to put together those delegates.
HAYES: I mean, when we say big, they need 40-point victories in places because the apportionment system of the Democratic side, you don`t have the winner take all shots, right. It`s like a basketball team could go in the second half up 15 and tie in the second half. They still win the game.
CONNIFF: But here`s the thing. There`s part of that argument that`s not math, it`s momentum. But when they say momentum, they`re talking about an emotional context. They`re talking about super delegates saying, you know, this Hillary Clinton is not winning. She`s supposed to be inevitable. She`s supposed to be the big winner. She`s not winning. But more than that, they`re talking about this argument to voters that, you know, as Charlie said the Democratic Party should be the vehicle for something more idealistic. And I think that is really what they`re saying. They`re talk about changing politics.
PIERCE: I thought he did something very interesting last night at the rally I went to in Madison. He is -- you know, we always talk about nationalizing local elections. He`s localizing a national election. He`s really taken off after Scott Walker. He`s involved himself in the critical Supreme Court race that`s going on tomorrow at the same time.
HAYES: Clinton also weighed in on that. It`ll be very interesting to see how it will shake out tomorrow. Charlie Pierce, Ruth Conniff, thanks for being with me tonight. Appreciate it.
That is All In for this evening.
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