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All In with Chris Hayes, Transcript 3/14/2016

Guests: Katie Packer, Jeb Lund, Sherrod Brown, Tina Turner, McKay Coppins, Michael Mayo

Show: ALL IN with CHRIS HAYES Date: March 14, 2016 Guest: Katie Packer, Jeb Lund, Sherrod Brown, Tina Turner, McKay Coppins, Michael Mayo

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST (voice-over): Tonight on ALL IN --

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We`re going to take our country back from these people.

HAYES: Dark campaign gets even darker.

The Republican frontrunner now thinking about paying a violent supporter`s legal bills.

TRUMP: I actually instructed my people to look into it.

HAYES: Tonight, the fact and fiction about violence and the Trump campaign.

TRUMP: There`s no violence.

HAYES: As the stop Trump movement throws the kitchen sink --

MITT ROMNEY (R), FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This is the guy that Ohio needs to vote for.

HAYES: And the front runner calls in backup.

SARAH PALIN (R), FORMER ALASKA GOVERNOR: Petty punk (EXPLETIVE DELETED) little thuggery stuff that`s been going on.

HAYES: And as Democrats dual in Ohio and Florida and beyond, how both candidates are now forced to deal with a reality of a Trump nomination.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This guy is a pathological liar.

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When you are inciting mob violence which is what Trump is doing in those clips, there`s a lot of memories that people have.

HAYES: When ALL IN starts right now.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HAYES: Good evening from Miami, Florida. I`m Chris Hayes, here in one of the five states where voters will head to the polls tomorrow on a potentially decisive day that may well put Donald Trump on a glide path to the GOP presidential nomination.

Florida is the biggest prize tomorrow for the Republicans, a winner-take- all state with 99 delegates up for grabs. Polls show Trump currently with an average 19-point lead over Florida Senator Marco Rubio, who desperately needs a somewhat magical upset at this point in his home state.

With the total of 367 delegates total up for grabs, tomorrow marks perhaps the most important Election Day so far. One that could either establish Trump as the presumptive GOP nominee, or set up a long slog to contested and likely chaotic nominating convention in Cleveland in July.

That is what is on the ballast tomorrow, the possible point of no return on Donald Trump as a major party presidential nominee. The stakes have only gotten higher over the past 72 hours, as we have witnessed in real-time the unraveling of long-standing and established norms against mob violence as a routine part of the American democratic political process.

And watch as Trump has continued to count and times openly encourage his supporters to engage in violence against protesters. A group that Trump supporter Sarah Palin today dismissed to wild cheers at a Trump rally in Tampa.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PALIN: What we don`t have time for is all that petty punk ass little thuggery stuff that`s been going on with these, quote/unquote, "protesters".

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Just a short time ago, Trump wrapped up a rally in Youngstown, Ohio, another GOP winner-take-all state voting tomorrow where he mocked John Kasich for being an absentee governor before taking a shot at the man who introduced him it at the rally, Chris Christie, who was sitting right there.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Your governor is absentee. He goes -- listen to this, because I know, because I was there. But I go back and I still work. I have a job, right? You`ve got to do your job. So, your governor, Kasich, if you look at him -- and I`m being totally impartial. He goes to New Hampshire, he`s living in New Hampshire. Living.

Where is Chris? Is Chris around? Even more than Chris Christie, he was there. Chris, right? Even more. I hated to do that. But I had to make my point.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: The sights and sounds coming out of Trump when violence broke out between Trump supporters and protesters after Trump cancelled a Chicago rally after it was set to begin had been truly astounding.

In Hickory, North Carolina, today, Confederate flag emblazoned with the words, "Make America great again." In Cleveland, on Saturday, a Trump backer using a Nazi salute and saying, quote, "go back to Auschwitz".

And in virtually every Trump, intense exchanges between Trump protesters and supporters.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CROWD: Build that wall, build that wall, build that wall!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: In this campaign, Trump called on his supporters to, quote, "knock the crap out of protesters and said he wanted to punch one in the face. He`s repeatedly pined for the supposed good old days when political protesters were, quote, "carried out on a stretcher".

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Honestly, protesters -- they realize it. They realize that there are no consequences to protesting anymore. There used to be consequences. There are none any more.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Last week, a protester at a Trump rally was violently smashed in the face by an apparent Trump supporter and eventually that supporter was arrested. Yesterday, Trump claimed he doesn`t condone violence, but then defended the man who threw that sucker punch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: The man got carried away.

CHUCK TODD, MEET THE PRESS: Right.

TRUMP: He was 78 years old. He obviously loves this country. And maybe he doesn`t like seeing what`s happening to the country. I want to see the full tape.

TODD: So you don`t pay for his legal fees.

TRUMP: I don`t -- well, I`m going to look at it. I`m going to see what was behind this, because it was a strange event. But from what I heard, there was a -- you know, there was a lot of taunting and a certain finger was placed in the air. Not nice.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: I just want to take a moment to let that statement sink in. That he is looking into paying legal fees of the man who elbow-smashed a nonviolent protester in the face and that the man who threw that sucker punch into another man`s face, quote, "obviously loves his country". Obviously.

Today, the Cumberland County Sheriff`s Office in North Carolina said it was investigating if there was a connection between Trump`s conduct and the assault that took place, raising the possibility at one point of charging Trump with inciting a riot. In a statement, a Trump campaign said the candidate had done nothing wrong. And late tonight, a sheriff announced it would not charge Trump.

At a campaign rally today, Ted Cruz responded to a pro-Trump protester, who yelled, "Go back to Canada," this way.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We will be respectful. See, sir, one difference between this and a Donald Trump rally. I`m not asking anyone to punch you in the face.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: John Kasich, meanwhile, taking to passing out literature telling people to, quote, "fight the darkness".

With the anti-Trump movement on the right, tomorrow could mark Armageddon and they`re making their last stand for what could be the first stand in a long slog through the spring and summer months. In part, through a pair of new anti Trump ads from the Our Principles PAC, spotlighting campaign rally violence and Trump`s comments on women.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Bimbo.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Dog.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Fat pig.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Real quotes from Donald Trump, about women.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A person who is very flat-chested is very hard to be a 10.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Joining me now, MSNBC political analyst, Michael Steele, former chair of the Republican National Committee, and Katie Packer, former deputy campaign manager from Mitt Romney`s presidential campaign and founders of the Our Principles PAC which released that ad you just saw.

And, Katie, let me start with you. I think both ads are very well-done, very effective. But it feels a little like why are we seeing this now? I was going through the quotes that are in the women ad, and a lot of those quotes were around years ago or months ago. Is -- is this too little, too late?

KATIE PACKER, OUR PRINCIPLES PAC: Well, we`ll see tomorrow. The goal of Our Principles PAC has always been to share information, ultimately, the voters have to decide. And the voters are going to have to decide whether or not on one hand Donald Trump is a candidate that has the kind of character and temperament, you know, as he incites this kind of aggressive behavior in his rallies. And number two, if this is a guy that you want to have as our commander-in-chief and the president of our country when he I`m humiliates and demeans and said himself that you have to treat women like crap, to use a more PG-rated word.

This is how he treats women. He shows them total disdain and disrespect, unless they`re a super model or somehow enrich him financially. And I think that it`s important information at whatever point it comes. And hopefully, people will pay attention tomorrow.

HAYES: Michael, I think I like a lot of Americans watching the last 72 hours or four days play out have been pretty disturbed by what feels like something being cultivated and stoked and the flames being fanned in a way that`s not going to a good place. I mean, what is your reaction to watching what looks to be someone genuinely channeling mob rage in a way that it`s been a long time since we`ve seen in American politics?

MICHAEL STEELE, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Utterly disappointed. Very, very concerned about how we project this party to the American people in a general campaign, let alone a primary. But, you know, certainly in a general campaign. I think that the Trump team has to take stock.

I mean, I get it. I understand it. It`s, you know, a lot of bloviating, a lot of hot air and noise and saber rattling.

But at the end of the day, you`ve got to turn the corner and demonstrate presidential prowess and mind-set that gives comfort to the American people, to let them know that, you know, of all the people in the room to have a hot temper, it shouldn`t be you. And so, I think that that is something that we`re going to have to see play out. I doubt that it will, because it`s working right now. And that`s unfortunate.

It says a lot about where I think the American people find themselves right now, Chris. And as they channel a lot of this anger and frustration, and where our political process is, particularly on the Republican side, which, you know, causes other Republicans now to look at this and go, we cannot support the nominee, potential nominee of the party. I think that`s a very tough and dangerous spot for the party to be in, longer-term.

HAYES: I mean, he has been -- he`s been sort of crossing boundaries from the day into the race and each boundary -- new boundary, some segment of people say this is it. And Rubicon after Rubicon after Rubicon sort of gleefully leapt over. I mean, I guess, Katie, to you, like, is there a point of no return? Has it been crossed? At what point is there a point of no return such the point that people like yourself, people that are the core, the institutional makeup of the Republican Party say we`ll do everything we can to make sure this guy is defeated all the way through November?

PACKER: Well, he crossed that line for me months ago. I`ve been very clear on the fact that this is not a candidate that I could ever support.

But the important thing is not -- this isn`t about me. 35 percent of Republican voters have said that they could never vote for Trump in a general election. That`s according to a CNN poll that`s a pretty unsustainable number for a Republican candidate going into the fall.

Usually, Republican candidates get upwards of 90 percent. Democrat candidates upwards of 90 percent of voters in their own party. Thirty-five percent -- even if it`s half that, 17.5 percent would be catastrophic for the Republican Party.

HAYES: Right.

PACKER: So, basically the choice people are making when they choose Trump is not only to lose the White House in the fall, but it`s a question of how many down-ballot Republicans does he take with him?

STEELE: Yes --

HAYES: Michael --

STEELE: Go ahead.

HAYES: Yes, please.

STEELE: I don`t know if I subscribe to all of that. You know, the down ballots. We`re not losing the House of Representatives, regardless of who the nominee of the party is, number one. So I`ve heard some Republicans --

PACKER: Very optimistic.

STEELE: No, the numbers -- Katie, come on. That`s not happening. So let`s be honest.

The Senate is much more in play, because the margin is much smaller there. The five or six seats the Democrats need to flip the Senate. That`s a problem for those red senators in blue states like New Hampshire and Wisconsin, for example.

But I think longer-term, the party is really going to have to come to grips with where we are and who we are, beyond Donald Trump. And that`s something that`s not being settled right now. And whether it`s Cruz or anyone else, it`s going to be an issue downstream.

PACKER: Chris, can I just add there? If we lose the Senate, we lose the ability to block any Supreme Court appointment of Hillary Clinton. So that in and of itself, I totally disagree with Michael Steele. You know, the ramifications are endless.

HAYES: I`m going to take that up with my next guest, actually. Michael Steele and Katie Packer, thank you for your time tonight.

Joining me now is Jeb Lund, columnist for "The Guardian" and "Rolling Stone", probably most famous for the remarkable series of book reviews you`ve done for us, the candidate, book reviews you`ve done.

I want to play this idea of him as the face of the party, particularly at this moment, right? One of the things I think is being lost is, he seems to be defying political gravity, because no matter what he does, there`s no such thing as bad press. But if you`re looking at the actually polling, his net unfavorables among the broader electorate keep getting worse and worse. Like, at a certain point, people actually don`t like this.

Here`s a new DSCC ad that`s tying him to a Senate campaign. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: I think we`re going to make America great again, right?

SEN. RON JOHNSON (R), WISCONSIN: I`ll support the Republican nominee.

SEN. KELLY AYOTTE (R), NEW HAMPSHIRE: I plan to support the Republican nominee.

SEN. RICHARD BURR (R), NORTH CAROLINA: I will support the nominee, regardless of who it is.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Do you buy the catastrophe scenario that some of the Republican anti-Trump forces are talking about now?

JEB LUND, ROLLING STONE: Well, I think historically, you`ve seen with the landslide election with McGovern and Nixon, McGovern gets defeated whole hog and then the Democratic Party was fine. I think historically, the Republican Party can come out of this all right.

In terms of winning a general -- presidential election, they`re going to have to decide whether they want to lose one or they want to lose two, because I don`t think that Trump is some metastasis of this sort of conservative thinking. I think he`s kind of a really grand-standing apotheosis.

I mean, the idea of building a wall and punching illegals, you have the Minutemen, who were cheerleaded by members of Congress. These are guys who are yahoos and technicals just patrolling the border with guns and they have been celebrated.

Or you have Joe Arpaio, who`s basically our version of the Bavarian gull rider, just like running his little weird thiefdom that punishes people, and he`s been celebrated. How many people has he endorsed?

HAYES: Right.

JEB: So, do you want -- you know, you can go ahead and condemn Trumpism. But you`re going to have to do something about the fertile field that grew Trump.

HAYES: Well, and that I think is his moment. I mean, you`re seeing this sort of crazy thing happening on the right, right now, right, where even Breitbart, which has been the most sort of pro-Trump outlet, has basically exploded in the last few days over the allegation that a campaign manager grabbed one of the reporters violently and left bruises on her arm and people have resigned.

All these fissures are now just sort of erupting out in the open. You`re wondering like, what is this building towards, right? Is this going to be some moment of some actual self reflection?

LUND: Well, there`s that and then the easy option is going to be, well, we didn`t run a true conservative, which was the 2012, 2008 storyline.

And Trump is not a true conservative. He`s got a lot of apostates for opinions.

HAYES: Right.

LUND: And so, you know, you can go ahead and run him and lose and then you`ll go ahead and run somebody like Ted Cruz next time who might downplay some of that kind of divisive and punishing rhetoric and make it more palatable. And Cruz already does that. He just basically lards it with a layer of smarm. But I don`t think it`s going to ultimately long-term, demographically, it`s not going to be a winning strategy.

HAYES: You`re a Floridian. We`re in Florida now. Rubio I mean, basically, people are -- someone described an event today here in West Palm Beach as like elegiac basically, it`s like attending a live wake for a man. He`s done here.

LUND: I think so. I have gone to a couple different rallies, Trump and Cruz and asked people if they even considered Rubio. And they were done months ago. Whether it was the immigration thing or actually funnily enough, didn`t really hurt him when he was running here for Senate, his absenteeism.

But the fact that Jeb Bush brought it up, Ted Cruz brought it up, Donald Trump brought it up. You know, why would I elect you to the most important job in the world when I gave you --

HAYES: We do not give you one.

LUND: Yes, we gave you one and you didn`t do it.

HAYES: All right. Jeb Lund, great to see you in person, man. Thanks so much for joining me.

Still ahead, the elephant as it were in the Democratic race, how Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are addressing the encroaching Donald Trump.

Plus, what really happened in Chicago, comparing the story as told by the Trump campaign to the actual sequence of events as we know them.

And later, a preview of tomorrow night`s Super Tuesday. Does Bernie Sanders have another upset waiting for him? Is it still possible to deny Trump the nomination? We will look at that, and more, just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: If you`ve been looking for a little preview what have a general election against Donald Trump might look like, what arguments the Democratic nominee might marshal against him, the president on Friday gave us a nice little preview. Speaking to Democrats in Texas, President Obama touted the many successes of his administration, and then he turned his attention squarely to Donald Trump.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I mean, imagine what Trump would say if he actually had a record like this.

(CHEERS)

Instead of -- instead of selling steaks.

(CHEERS)

Has anybody tried that wine? How good can that wine be? I`m sorry. Where was I?

You`ve got all these candidates on the other side tripping all over themselves to talk down the economy when it is the bright spot in the world economy.

So here`s the truth. Look it up. America is pretty darn great right now! America is moving forward right now. The American people should be proud of what we achieved together right now.

(CHEERS)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Up next, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders make their case against what is happening in this country right now on the right.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: The past few days, Donald Trump has ventured into some parts of the country that are traditionally Democratic strongholds. And it`s giving us a preview of what a general election with him as a nominee could look like. After disturbing scenes and fisticuffs and shoving matches erupted after he cancelled a rally in Chicago Friday night, both candidates have intensified their criticism of and focus on Trump`s possible candidacy.

Today, Clinton accused Donald Trump of citing mob violence in ways that are reminiscent of an earlier, darker time.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: When you are inciting mob violence, which is what Trump is doing in those clips, there`s a lot of memories that people have. You know, they`re in the DNA. People remember mob violence that led to lynching. People remember mob violence that led to people being shot, being, you know, grabbed, being mistreated.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders has funded forcefully to Trump`s accusations he himself was involved in protests to shut down the Trump Chicago rally.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SANDERS: There was zero effort on the part of our campaign to organize any disruption at Trump`s campaign. I`ve got to say this. And, you know, if you know me, I`ve never run a negative TV ad in my life. We respect our opponents. People in Vermont know that. And I know Marco Rubio and I know Ted Cruz. And all these guys.

But with Trump, what you are dealing with -- and I say this without any joy -- this guy is a pathological liar.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Tonight, with less than 24 hours until polls close in Ohio, Sanders and Clinton are making their final arguments to Democratic voters in the still contested race. With Bernie Sanders stunning upset in Michigan, fresh in everyone`s memory, and polling in Ohio, showing Hillary Clinton up eight points over Sanders, a full 13 points less than her lead on the eve of voting in Michigan, tomorrow night may still have some more surprises in store.

Joining me now, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, who has endorsed Hillary Clinton for president.

And, Senator, earlier today, with my colleague, Chris Matthews, Hillary Clinton said of Sanders about his approach to trade deals that basically, he`s against everything with international implications, even before they`re done. Is that fair?

SEN. SHERROD BROWN (D), OHIO: Well, yes, I don`t -- yes, it`s fair. It`s fair, but so am I. I`ve been against these trade agreements too.

But I think the issue is, what are we doing to try to change our trade policy? And, you know, I -- Hillary has very specifically laid out a much more detailed, in-depth manufacturing plan, what to do about trade, with their special trade prosecutor on currency, on issues like nonmarket economy, what to do about designation there with China. And I just think there is a depth of understanding. And I`ve worked with Hillary in some of the plans on this.

And I -- Bernie has been against and I applaud him for that and stood with him as we did that. But I don`t know that I`ve seen him, and I`m not really being critical of him and I don`t want to be, because I don`t think that`s what this race is about.

But I want to look forward on how we put together a trade policy that works, because we`re going to trade. There is going to be globalization, but we need to do it under terms -- under rules that work as rules work for our domestic economy on the dynamic of capitalism. You need to do trade in the same way. And I think Hillary Clinton understands that. And that`s why I like the direction she wants to take us in.

HAYES: Well, let me -- I`m going to -- present to you a cynical case. And you tell me why I`m wrong.

Democratic politicians come to Ohio every election, every four years, and they critique trade deals. I remember in 2008, the primary, Barack Obama was attacking Hillary Clinton from her left on trade as a supporter of NAFTA. He gets elected president. He`s now passing the TPP. They say it`s much better and has stronger safeguards than NAFTA ever did.

But the cynical view is basically, in the week before the Ohio primary, everybody gets religion on trade deals, and then as soon as they become president, they push for more.

BROWN: Yes. I hear that cynicism. I kind of shared that back in 2008. When I heard both candidates then say something that I wasn`t really convinced of.

But I`ve seen something different. First of all, I`ve seen the input she has welcomed. She has let me and worked with me in helping formulate trade policy. I think the world is different. And I think Secretary Clinton knows that.

I see all four presidential candidates, the leading four, Cruz and Trump and Sanders and Clinton, all oppose TPP.

And Hillary can recite chapter and verse about what`s wrong with it and how to fix it. And I will be standing with her as she does that when I`m chairman of the banking committee in 2009 -- 2017 and sit on the finance committee that works on trade deals. And I think we`ll see a very different trade policy, a very different tax policy.

No more this whole business plan that has become the way companies do things now. You shut down production in Mansfield, Ohio, and Sandusky, Ohio, move it to China, sell products back into the U.S. that doesn`t work for the country -- our country any more. I think Hillary Clinton has an acute understanding of that and how you fix it.

HAYES: All right. Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, always a pleasure. Thank you for joining me.

BROWN: My pleasure too. Thank you.

HAYES: Joining me now, another Ohioan, Nina Turner, former Ohio state senator, who has endorsed Bernie Sanders for president.

Nina, I`ve been hearing from a lot of Sanders people increasingly as the Trump phenomenon has sort of gained force and as people now really expect him to be the nominee that Sanders is in a better position to take him on in the general election. Do you believe that`s the case?

NINA TURNER, FORMER OHIO STATE SENATOR: I do, Chris, because Senator Sanders -- the emotions that we see coming from the American people, whether they`re on the left or the right, they`re tired of the status quo. They`re tired of business, as usual.

And Senator Sanders has stood up strongly to say enough is enough. We`re going to do things differently in this country. And we`re going to make sure that the working poor and middle class are at the center of the universe.

We know that all of the national polls -- and I know people are going to say it`s too early to look at those polls, show that Senator Sanders is by far the best Democratic candidate to go head-to-head with Mr. Trump. He is tapping into a raw emotion, as well, Chris. But he`s doing it in a positive way.

HAYES: But here`s my question to you. How -- I mean, I hear this from Sanders` supporters. Here`s my question. How do you possibly win a change election when you are going to be the Democratic nominee following two turns of Barack Obama?

The idea of we`re going to finally for the first time do something right when you are going to be the person running after Barack Obama -- that just seems like that`s going to be a very, very tough sell, and if people want change, they`re not going to go for a Democrat.

TURNER: Well, Chris, you build on the good things that the president has done under enormous pressure and obstruction from the Republicans.

But what Senator Sanders is saying is that $15 an hour -- people deserve a living wage, universal health care as a right in this country. Tuition- free college for every child in this country so that they don`t graduate with a debt in one hand and a degree in the other. He is acknowledging pain and challenges that Americans are feeling but also taking it a step further to say that we together can change this and make this better.

So, I believe fully that Senator Sanders has the right message to go head- to-head with Mr. Trump.

HAYES: There`s a real concern also that -- I mean, unlike Hillary Clinton, who has been through probably more scrutiny than almost any public figure in American life -- I think it would almost be fair to say -- that Sanders basically is an unknown to so many people and essentially right now his positive approval ratings, which are quite positive, are just a sort of byproduct. And when he starts getting attacked, that`s going to plummet.

TURNER: I don`t agree with that, Chris. I think that`s just a copout from people who don`t want to see him in the general election.

Let us not forget, the secretary has not been in a general election either. Understand that she has not been in a general election.

Senator Sanders will continue to run this race, and he will be a great general election candidate. He will be able to handle whatever they try to throw at him, because he is running for the heart and soul of this country, to lift the working class and the middle class people in this country, to deal with a rigged economy and a rigged political system, enough is enough. And American people feel the same way. He will be just fine in the general election.

HAYES: All right. Nina Turner, thanks so much for joining me. Appreciate it.

TURNER: Thanks, Chris.

HAYES: Up next, there is a lot of misinformation going around about what exactly led up to Donald Trump canceling his rally in Chicago. And I think it`s important to set that record straight. And we`re going to do that, just after the break. Don`t go anywhere.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Rather than fighting in Chicago, I did something that was a good move, a good decision, because I don`t want to see anybody be hurt. And what happened is -- and we`ve been given so much credit for that decision, nobody hurt, nobody -- no problem. Went away.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Not only is Donald Trump refusing to call for calm or did denounce his supporters who engage in thuggish violence, but he`s been telling a distorted story about what happened at his Chicago rally on Friday night taking credit for diffusing a tense situation with his decision to cancel at the last minute.

Now, there clearly was fighting inside the arena. People did get hurt. Whatever problems there were between protesters and Trump supporters did not go away with the campaign`s announcement. In fact, and this is important, it was more like the opposite. Various media outlets reported that Trump canceled only after clashes broke out in the venue. Note the Fox News banner, "violent protesters force Trump campaign to cancel rally."

Even The New York Times headline, Donald Trump`s rally in Chicago canceled after violent scuffles.

But from several eyewitness accounts and MSNBC`s own tape of the rally, that does not appear to have been the chain of events.

First of all, while Trump statement said he made the decision after, quote, meeting with law enforcement, the Chicago police department told the Washington Post they had no role, were not consulted or provided an opinion. And the police at the University of Illinois where the rally was being held, likewise confirmed they were not consulted.

And though it`s clear, there was a huge number of protesters inside that event, by some estimates as much as a third of all the attendees, things appear to have been fairly calm in the arena, if a bit tense, right up until the cancellation itself was announced.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Tonight`s rally will be postponed until another day. Thank you very much for your attendance and please go in peace.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: Go in peace. That was obviously not what happened.

With that announcement, the tensions between supporters and protesters seemed to break loose. And the rest of the nation saw the results.

In other words, it wasn`t that there was violence in the venue which caused Trump to cancel the rally, but rather, that Trump canceling the rally precipitated violence in the venue.

Keep in mind, that this kind of violence only occurs at Trump rallies, a fact that Trump himself seems to regard as a badge of honor.

Coming up next, an inside look at the climate of rage and intimidation at Donald Trump`s campaign events.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: There`s a bit of a scary moment at a Trump rally in Dayton, Ohio on Saturday when a man jumped the barricade and tried to rush the stage. He was quickly tackled by secret service and taken into custody. He was not armed and said he just planned to yell that Trump was a racist.

The really scary part was how Trump supporters at the event reacted. Listen carefully to the voices yelling in the crowd.

HAYES: Kick his ass. Kill him. A bunch of stuff we had to bleep out. And that kind of thing is not just reserved for protesters who actually disrupt Trump`s campaign events, MSNBC`s Tony Dokoupil recorded the following scene outside a Trump rally on Saturday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Go back to Africa.

If you`re an African first, go back to Africa. If you`re an African first, go back to Africa.

UNIDENITIFIED FEMALE: Go back to Europe.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Black lives don`t matter to other inner city blacks.

So (EXPLETIVE DELETED) you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: And there`s this video taken outside what appears to be the same event.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Sig heil. Go to Auschwitz. Go to (EXPLETIVE DELETED) Auschwitz.

(END VIDEO CLPI)

HAYES: Go to Auschwitz. Go back to f`ing Auschwitz. And it`s all just the evidence that Trump events are often dangerous places to be at the center or merely someone the campaign doesn`t like.

Just wearing a hijab and a t-shirt reading literally Salaam, I come in peace, can get you harassed and kicked out as we saw at a rally in South Carolina back in January, as can just being part of a group of black students, like the ones who were ejected from another rally in Georgia late last month, who never protested.

At a Trump event last night here in Florida in Boca Raton, a Sun Sentinel columnist wearing his work ID badge, but attending as a private citizen was kicked out he says simply for recording video on his phone.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It is a public park.

UNIDENITIFIED MALE: It is not a public park.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Oh, it`s not?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Tonight it is rented by the Donald Trump campaign and they are the ones who say can come and go. Okay? So...

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So my options are either going now or what?

UNIDENITIFIED MALE: At this point, going out or going to jail.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: The man was kicked out of that Trump rally last night joins me now, Michael Mayo, columnist for the South Florida Sun Sentinel.

So, take me through this. You went to the event -- general attendee.

MICHAEL MAYO, SUN SENTINEL: Yeah, what happens when we got notified that there was going to be this event, there was a website link, it`s called eventbright.com, where you register to attend as a general person, general public. I provided all my information accurately. I got this ticket on my phone. And then I showed up at the event. And there was no rules or attachment -- any guidelines attached to that ticket saying you can`t do this, or they didn`t ask me about -- if I was a newspaper person.

I just showed up, went through the metal detectors like everybody else and was roaming around the crowd. And actually, the crowd -- everybody in the general admission crowd was using their phones to take photos and videos and was encouraged to post to social media by the campaign people. In the warmup rallies, they even gave a special hashtag for the event.

So they`re encouraging everyone to use their phones, to social media tweet, Facebook and I did the same.

HAYES: Right. But at these events, they have a rule that press can`t circulate and talk to supporters. They keep them in what`s called a press pen where they bound in. We saw one guy get clocked by secret service when he tried to leave it, right?

MAYO: Right.

HAYES: So they come up to you, they see your press badge and what do they say?

MAYO: Well, yeah, that`s the thing. I wasn`t in the pen, I didn`t ask for a media credential. In my mind, I didn`t need it, because I wasn`t there working on deadline, I didn`t have a computer. And when the -- a Trump campaign operative, who wouldn`t fully identify himself, just called himself "Justin," wouldn`t give me his title. I gave him my card. I told him who I was. And basically said I that couldn`t do what I was doing and that I would have to leave.

And, you know, I`ve been a journalist 30 years, sports writer a long time, news side for the last 14 years and I have never encountered a situation like that where basically just for the act of being and doing what everybody else was doing in the general crowd, I was basically given an ultimatum of leaving or getting arrested.

HAYES: Or being arrested. I mean, that`s the other part of this. And I`ve seen this now at several events. They essentially instruct the law enforcement that this is now private property and a private event in which they say who can come and go. It`s not a private event. It`s a private event, and that`s the word law enforcement will use to people, whether it`s just a group of black people who happen to be there, that are then told this is a private event and you can`t come here and law enforcement is going to take you out or it`s someone with a press badge.

MAYO: Well, here`s the surprising thing. I mean, I was under the impression that the first amendment applies, especially when it`s kind of a mass public setting, where the public is invited in. But I talked to some constitutional lawyers today, and I was a little surprised that right now, Donald J. Trump is considered a private entity, and he is allowed to control who comes and goes. The analogy I heard was like it`s like a birthday party. I got an invitation. I was allowed in and then for whatever reason they want, they kicked me out.

HAYES: And this is the thing they say about all their events. But what you have is you end up is that you end up with the people who are paid law enforcement of the state enforcing whatever private whims of...

MAYO: Exactly.

HAYES: Of this campaign, whether that means, profiling people based on the way they look or not wanting people to talk to their supporters, and just to be clear, that doesn`t happen at other campaign events.

MAYO: No.

And I covered a Marco Rubio rally two weeks ago down here in Miami exactly the same way I did this one. I had no hassles, no problems.

HAYES: No, this is what you do. You go to campaign events if you`re a reporter and you talk to people. That`s what you do.

Michael Mayo, thanks for joining us.

MAYO: Thanks for having me.

HAYES: Coming up, we are on the eve of another Super Tuesday, even Superer, and the stakes are high for both Democrats and Republicans. An ALL IN viewers guide what to watch, just ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: We`re here in Miami, Florida ahead of tomorrow`s primaries. It`s the home of Marco Rubio, the chairman of the Senate subcommittee on oceans, atmosphere, fisheries and coast guard. Who, when he was running for senate in 2009, started raising questions about whether climate change is man made. "I`m not a scientist. I`m not qualified to make that decision," Rubio said.

I`m not a scientist is a refrain repeated by other prominent Republicans, including Senate majority leader and the current governor of Florida.

Well, since I`m here I wanted to ask an actual climate scientist about his response to that line. Dr. Ben Kirtman, professor of atmospheric science at University of Miami, sat down with me earlier.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DR. BEN KIRTMAN, CLIMATOLOGIST: If you`re going to prescribe policy, all I can say is, I`m willing to give you the best available science. We`ve said it with Governor Scott, Marco Rubio`s office when the Senator Rubio`s office a few years ago. We`re willing to provide you the best available science you should be engaging. To say you`re not a scientist is abdicating your responsibilities as a politician.

Person on the street, that`s okay, that`s their right. But as a politician and a decision-maker, that`s not your -- you don`t have that right.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROMNEY: This is the guy that Ohio needs to vote for, America is counting on you. Let`s do it. Let`s welcome a great governor of a great state, John Kasich.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HAYES: That was Mitt Romney today, stumping for John Kasich, saying America is counting on Ohio and at least among the anti-Trump portion of the Republican Party, he is correct. Because for Trump to win the nomination outright, collecting 1,237 delegates before the convention, looks like Ohio is pretty important.

The current delegate count has Trump at 458, an 84 delegate lead on his next competitor Ted Cruz. As we`ve been saying tonight, the two biggest prizes tomorrow are right here in Florida and Ohio, because they are winner take all primaries with 165 delegates at stake between them.

If Donald Trump wins both of those states, he will have amassed enough delegates so that he would only need to win 53 percent of delegates in the remaining contests to secure the nomination, an achievable prospect, especially, if the field winnowed to two candidates.

But that path to victory gets much more difficult if he loses one or both of these states.

For instance, if Trump only wins Florida, he would need 60 percent of the remaining delegates. And if he loses both, he would need 70 percent of the remaining delegates, each of which are pretty steep challenges.

So what are Trump`s chances of winning both states? Right now, polling shows him with a comfortable lead in Florida with his polling average, according to Real Clear Politics, at nearly 20 points ahead of Rubio.

Ohio is a much different story. NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out yesterday shows Ohio governor John Kasich with a six-point lead over Trump and a Quinnipiac poll out today shows the race tied between Kasich and Trump.

Essentially, it is very close in the Buckeye State. And if Kasich pulls out a win, it makes it much harder for Trump to secure the nomination outright, and could pave the way for an unpredictable contested convention in Cleveland.

We will talk about that, and what to look for tomorrow on the Democratic side for some late-breaking polling shows an extremely tight race in the state of Illinois.

We`ll talk about that right after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HAYES: And joining me now, McKay Coppin, senior political writer for Buzzfeed news, and Joy Reid MSNBC national correspondent. Great to have you guys down here in Miami.

HAYES: So, there has been this debate in -- I just talked about this sort of Ohio scenario, right. Neck and neck there. Trump moved his event from Florida to Ohio today. They`re doing an Ohio event. They really want to win there.

This question of is it better for the anti-Trump forces for John Kasich to win and deny him the delegates, but then Kasich probably stays in the race. Or for Kasich to lose so he drops out and you can get to the Cruz/Trump head-to-head.

Sam Wong (ph), who runs who runs modeling on This American Prospect, basically says in which Rubio drops out and Kasich stays in, may be Trump`s best option.

That counterintuitively it is worse for Trump to win Ohio since that would likely cause Kasich to withdraw. In that scenario Trump would be left with a one-on-one with Cruz. Do you buy that?

MCKAY COPPIN, BUZZFEED: There is a solid case to made. And by the way, you can see that Trump has tried for months to keep a lot of these candidates in by sort of like helping them out in attacking others ones saying, you know, Rubio is right about Ted Cruz lying or Ted Cruz is right about Rubio doing this.

There is a good case to be made that if -- you know, if Ted Cruz -- if Ted Cruz and Trump one-on-one -- that Trump would actually do fairly poorly against him, that because he hasn`t hit 50 percent, Trump in very many primaries, you`ll see a lot of the Republican rally around Cruz.

That`s -- it`s still a stretch. I still think you want as many delegates away from Trump as possible.

JOY REID, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: And I think because, you know, what could end up saving the Republican Party is the some of the snobbery of the Founding Fathers and the early proponents of the system, because the popular vote does not elect the nominee, or doesn`t choose the nominee. It`s chosen at the state conventions, it`s chosen by party insiders. So where the empire can strike back is at the convention. So if that`s your scenario, that you`re going to deny Trump the nomination by trading delegates, you want Kasich in. You actually want him there, because you want him actively horse trading. Because remember Cruz being in means he could still go back to Iowa and still be messing with who are going to be the delegates.

COPPIN: And we`ve already seen reports of that happening. Cruz people are already approaching delegations, and saying, look, when we get to the second ballot, you better make sure all your people are with us.

HAYES: Yeah, and there`s all this crazy -- U.S. Virgin Islands has a crazy controversy about who the electors they have elected are. I mean, the other thing is when you think about the 66, it`s like, that 66 -- I played around with delegate calculators more than I care to admit. I guess I just did on live TV. And it`s very easy to get Trump to like 1150, 1185, that`s right.

1,237 is like -- it`s very problem.

So like 66 might be the difference, right?

REID: Right. And you don`t want to take the chance of doing a head-to- head and then the party be wrong and Ted Cruz cannot beat Donald Trump one-on- one. And you don`t want to give Trump the opportunity to run up a high score against one person.

HAYES: Democratic side, what are you looking for tomorrow?

REID: I think tomorrow you`re going to see Hillary Clinton win Florida. I haven`t heard very many even Bernie Sanders ads on the radio here, so I think he`s given up the state. The real battle is obviously in the Rust Belt. What Sanders wants is to take Ohio from her, take Missouri, if he can -- I was going to say Missoura (ph), take Missouri if he can and take Illinois.

But in that scenario, the problem for Sanders, her delegate lead is already so big that I`m not sure that even if you were to take two of those states he could catch up.

HAYES: Well, right now, he`s in a situation where I think I saw the most - - he`d have to 54 percent of the remaining pledged delegates. Now, that means like eight victories across the board, which -- he`s not in a Rubio territory. I mean, he`s in it for sure. And we saw from Michigan, the polling could be wrong, right.

REID: could be.

HAYES: But he still has -- he needs blowouts, basically. The problem is, even if he gets some narrow wins yesterday -- tomorrow and she gets Florida by blowouts, these blowouts that she keeps getting, particularly through the south, have given her this 200-plus padding that is a very difficult -- because there is no winner take all. There`s no shooting the moon in the rules in the Democratic side.

REID: It`s interesting that he`s hanging around, paling around with Jesse Jackson, because it`s Reverend Jackson who created these rules, proportionality is universal because of Jackson in `88.

HAYES: Rubio -- people are already. I mean, I don`t now what to think, right. Maybe there`s some huge shock the world upset tomorrow. Who knows. I don`t like to make...

COPPIN: The Rubio campaign is very confident that there will be.

I mean, look. The only thing that he has going for him is the early votes that have been tallied, that there is a decent case to be made. It`s actually not clear, but there is a case to be made those early votes favor Rubio.

You know, there have been a lot of early votes cast here. Though I`ve seen -- the most recent polls actually showed Cruz moving up. So I mean, best case scenario is Rubio pulls off a miraculous last-second win in his home state. It shouldn`t be that miraculous. But that`s the best-case scenario and he stays in.

Worst case scenario is not that he loses...

HAYES: Gets trounced.

COPPIN: And maybe even comes in third.

REID: I think on crazy -- I was on -- going to radio stations today, went to the conservative radio station. Cruz is actually getting backlash for going against the violence of the Trump rallies. That could be Rubio`s opening.

HAYES: Very interesting. McKay Coppins, Joy Reid, thank you for joining me tonight.

That is ALL IN for this evening.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. END