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All In with Chris Hayes, Transcript 10/27/15

Guests: Niya Kenny, Todd Rutherford, Kimberle Crenshaw, Redditt Hudson,Rick Wilson, Lynn Vavreck, Peter Moskus, Richard Rosenfeld

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST (voice-over): Tonight on ALL IN -- (EXPLETIVE DELETED) HAYES: There will be a federal investigation of the officer caught on tape flipping a South Carolina high school student. Tonight, Niya Kenny, the student who was arrested after standing up for her classmate joins me in an ALL IN exclusive. Then -- DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We have a breaking story. HAYES: Donald Trump dethroned as Ben Carson drops two more policy stunners. JAKE TAPPER, CNN ANCHOR: Isn`t it redistribution of wealth? HAYES: And the field gets fed up. GOV. JOHN KASICH (R-OH), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I`ve about had it with these people. HAYES: Plus, Hillary Clinton picks up an endorsement from a progressive hero. And the politics of crime. GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE (R-NJ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: There`s lawlessness in this country. The president encourages this lawlessness. HAYES: The president pushes back on the so-called "Ferguson Effect". BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I reject any narrative that seeks to divide police and the communities they serve. HAYES: When ALL IN starts right now. (END VIDEOTAPE) HAYES: Good evening from New York. I`m Chris Hayes. The FBI is leading an investigation into the circumstances that led to a police officer`s heavy use of force and arrest of a Spring Valley high school student in Columbia, South Carolina. Several videos of yesterday`s incident apparently taken on cell phones of other students in the classroom created an immediate and wide spread outrage. (VIDEO CLIP PLAYS) HAYES: When this story broke last night, we also showed you the second video of the incident. The Justice Department`s civil rights division, the FBI, U.S. attorney`s office for South Carolina are conducting the civil rights probe into the case. Two people, including the student physically handled there by the officer, were arrested for a charge called disturbing schools. The other student arrested, a witness who tried to stand up for the student before being detained, will join me in just a moment. A third video shows another angle of the same incident. Sheriff Leon Lott of Richland County who was attending a conference in Chicago on law enforcement returned today and restated what authorities already claimed, the student refused to leave the class when a teacher and administrator asked her to and when the school resource officer asked her, too. The sheriff said he was disturbed by weather saw on the videos. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SHERIFF LEON LOTT, RICHLAND COUNTY, SC: This is very disturbing. We`ve seen one video, we`ve seen two videos, now, there`s a third video. We have a third one that`s come forward now. Another child or student in that class video that also from a different angle and it shows a different perspective. It actually shows the student hitting the school resource officer with her fists and striking him. Now, what she does is not what I`m looking at. What I`m looking at is what our school resource officer did. What was his actions? What did he do? She disrupted class. She was disturbing the other students from getting their education. So she`s in the wrong. But, does her actions meet the level to what this officer did? That`s what we`re going to decide. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: The sheriff`s claim of the student striking the officer may refer to what she does with her arm involuntarily or voluntarily, it`s hard to say when the officer is flipping her over. The sheriff was asked whether there might have been a racial component to the incident, he responded with this. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) LOTT: I don`t know. It`s difficult to say that, and I guess in one way, I make that decision based on personal knowledge about this deputy. He`s been dating an African-American female for quite some time now. You know, and so does that have a bearing on his thought process? It may have. But I would think that would have it on a positive way and not a negative way. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: The officer in question, Ben Fields, is one of the two school resource officers at the high school. He`s been placed on administrative duty. Officer Fields has been sued twice. One of those cases decided by a jury in his favor and upheld on appeal. Another case filed by a former Spring Valley student who was expelled in 2013 is set for jury trial in January of next year. The lawsuit said Officer Fields unfairly and recklessly targets African-American students with allegations of gang membership and criminal gang activity. Fields denies any wrongdoing in this case, as well. Today, the board of the Richland School District Two condemned yesterday`s act in the strongest terms. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) JAMES MANNING, RICHLAND CO. SCHOOL BOARD: There is absolutely no place in this district or any other district for that matter for what happened here yesterday. Our tolerance for it is zero. I repeat that what happened yesterday and what we all watched on that shamefully shocking video is reprehensible, unforgivable, and inconsistent with everything that this district stands for what we work for, and what we aspire to be. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: The board has caused for an investigation by South Carolina`s Law Enforcement Division or SLED and says it will re-evaluate, reinforce, and strengthen training of school personnel on the appropriate use of school resource officers and will refer this incident to their existing diversity task force. According to Reuters, the school district`s Black Parents Association has called for a Justice Department probe into what it says are "long- standing, discriminatory practices by the school district" itself. Joining me now, Spring Valley High School student Niya Kenny, who witnessed the incident and was arrested after standing up for the student in question. Also with me her attorney, Todd Rutherford. Niya, thank you for joining me tonight. Can you give us a little perspective on what happened in that classroom before the videos all start? NIYA KENNY, WITNESS: Well, she was asked to leave the classroom, and she refused to leave the classroom. And our teacher then called an administrator in the class, and she still refused to leave. And that`s when Deputy Ben Fields was called in. HAYES: Could you tell us, was her infraction that she was -- I had seen reports she was looking at her phone. That was what attracted the attention of the teacher initially? KENNY: Yes, sir. HAYES: Okay. So she was looking at her phone. She wasn`t like standing up and yelling or anything like that? KENNY: Not at all. She`s a quiet girl. She doesn`t do anything to anyone in the class. And it was really because she wouldn`t give up her phone. And so our teacher, you know, tried to kick her out of the class. HAYES: The teacher tried to kick her out of the class because she won`t turn over her phone. He calls an administrator. She won`t turn over her phone to the administrator or leave. Then that`s when the police officer comes in, Mr. Fields. Is this something you`ve seen before that the school resource officer is called into a classroom situation like this? KENNY: Never have I ever seen anything like that. HAYES: Were you and other students surprised that it seemed to escalate to that point? KENNY: Maybe the other kids were because they were younger, and this is like they haven`t been at Spring Valley this long. But I`ve heard about him. So I wasn`t really surprised because I`ve heard so much about him. So I -- before he came to class, I was actually telling them take out your cameras because I feel like this is going to go downhill because I`ve heard so much about him. HAYES: This school resource officer in particular, you have already heard about before he came in. What do you mean you`ve heard things about him? What have you heard? KENNY: Oh, yes, sir. He`s known as "Officer Slam" around our school. And I have heard he`s in the past slammed pregnant women, teenage girls. He`s known for slamming. HAYES: One of the things that is so striking in this video is, the other students in the class seem very quiet and - and scared and contained. No one seems to be intervening. Why do you think that was? KENNY: They were scared. They were scared. I was scared myself. But more than likely, they were scared. I feel like the two grown men in the class were also scared theirselves because who`s ever seen anything like that? That`s not normal for someone to be handled like that, let alone a 16-year-old girl by a 300-pound man. HAYES: The -- you at one point did get up, right, to say -- what did you say? What happened? KENNY: I was screaming, crying like are you guys seriously let this happen? Like, this is not right. You guys know this isn`t right, and you guys are really letting this happen right now. I guess maybe they were in shock, but still, I feel like somebody in the class should have helped her. HAYES: Did the teacher or the administrator who were in the class, did they say anything or to the officer say hey, this is excessive, or try to intercede in any way? KENNY: Not at all. They were both quiet. Just like the kids. HAYES: So everyone`s sitting there in stunned silence, watching this happen. You then start saying something. What happens next? KENNY: And then the administrator, Caron Webb, who was also in the class starts telling me, "Sit down, Niya, be quiet, Niya. Put your phone away, Niya." And I`m just like no, no, like, this is not right. This is not right. I can`t believe you all are doing this to her. HAYES: And then you are eventually arrested? KENNY: Yes, sir. HAYES: Who arrests you? Is it Officer Fields? KENNY: Yes, sir, it was. HAYES: So does he cuff you? KENNY: Yes, sir. HAYES: He cuffed you in your class? KENNY: Yes, sir, in front of the classroom. HAYES: Mr. Rutherford, your client is now facing criminal charges? Am I understanding this correctly? TODD RUTHERFORD, ATTORNEY FOR NIYA KENNY: You are. And all she did was an heroic act and try and stop this monster from brutalizing this child. It`s been said before, and I was at the Waffle House before I came over here, listening to just people dialogue about this. And one of their concerns was that when they -- an adult, a teacher, an administrator, ask a student to do something, that student should immediately do it. And while we don`t question that, there is no doubt that no one, no human being, no animal should be treated the way that she was treated. Shikara was taken by her neck and in doing so - as soon as the officer grabbed her neck, you see her react to what the sheriff says. She laid punches on the deputy, which is just the most ridiculous thing I`ve heard. She was then tossed across the room -- so far, I might add, that when she was tossed the deputy had to walk over to where she landed. He didn`t just step. He threw her so far that he had to walk over to where she landed. It`s the most ridiculous thing I`ve ever seen, and the fact that the sheriff is waiting to review the tape, that he is not outraged the way that every other citizen is, is just the most ridiculous thing, again, I`ve ever heard. HAYES: All right. Todd Rutherford and Niya Kenny. Niya, I just want to thank you very much for coming on tonight and being so clear and poised. It`s really impressive. Thank you very much. KENNY: Thank you for having me. RUTHERFORD: Thank you, Chris. HAYES: All right. Joining me now, Redditt Hudson, former St. Louis police officer, co-founder of National Coalition of Law Enforcement Officers for Justice, Reform and Accountability. And Kimberle Crenshaw, she`s professor of law at UCLA and Columbia, and cofounder of the African- American Policy Forum. Kimberle, I feel like I need to process what I just heard. KIMBERLE CRENSHAW, PROFESSOR OF LAW, UCLA & COLUMBIA: I do, too. I do too. HAYES: I don`t know. It`s very -- it`s sort of a remarkable -- if there is a single small upside it`s this Niya thing was not standard practice, that someone become (INAUDIBLE) to the school which part of my thought. CRENSHAW: That`s the only upside. First I have to say, congratulations and thank you to Niya for actually standing up, and telling the story. Actually being a voice of reason in that moment, right? And we see the consequences of that is basically now she`s in trouble, too. You know, it`s so outrageous what happened that it`s difficult for us to also focus on the fact that charges are still pending against both of these women. HAYES: Yes. CRENSHAW: That`s telling us something about what the consequence is of having police in schools, right? You know, there`s that thing if you`re a hammer, everything looks like a nail. If you`re a police officer, everything looks like a crime. If you`re a violent police officer, every moment of defiance as you define it is a justification for coercive force. We`re talking serious coercion at this moment. HAYES: Yes, Redditt Hudson, I`d like your thoughts on that as a former police officer yourself. I`ve talked to a lot of cops over the last two years. A lot of them say look, sometimes you`ve got to put hands on someone. This doesn`t seem to me, from my amateur perspective, like an appropriate use that have. REDDITT HUDSON, FORMER ST. LOUIS POLICE OFFICER: Absolutely not. What you saw on that videotape was a senseless and brutal assault on a 16- year-old girl that`s unjustifiable under the circumstances. Thank God for the awareness of the young lady who was just on and her classmates filming what happened so that we have an objective record of what took place. Without those videotapes, this officer is not on administrative leave. The Justice Department is not involved and we`re not where we are right now. Importantly, those video cameras and those officers who are now out in the national discourse talking about a "Ferguson Effect" are really indicting the system itself because what they`re saying in effect now that you all can create objective records of our behavior consistently as we execute our public responsibilities, we can`t do it anymore. Because we do so much dirt, we`re afraid to work. HAYES: Let me ask you your response to the sheriff`s comments today. I want to get your thoughts too, Kimberle. But, Reddit, the sheriff`s comments after coming backing from this conference that the president was speaking at today, particularly what he said when asked whether it was racial mentioning the personal life of the officer in question, what`s your response? HUDSON: My response is this. I would qualify his statement and say that racially, my problem would be with the amount of times this happens in communities of color to children of color in schools that are predominantly African-American or Hispanic and Latino. He may be dating a black woman. I don`t know. By I`ll bet you he wouldn`t have put his hands on a white 16-year-old girl the way that you saw him treat this young lady on that videotape. He slammed her forcefully to the ground and threw her across the room after he grabbed her around the throat. What`s consistent, regardless of anyone`s personal life, is in the execution of their public duties, the disproportionate use of excessive force and unnecessary force against people who don`t deserve it. CRENSHAW: Yes, and I just want to add to that that while this is taking place in schools, that will level of force, that kind of brutality that we`re seeing in this video actually happens outside of schools, as well. One of our recent reports say her name looks at black women who have been manhandled and basically killed by precisely that kind of force. Tanisha Anderson, Cleveland, Ohio, was killed days before Tamir Rice by police basically throwing her to the ground and getting on top of her or Natasha McKenna was also killed by six white officers in hazmat uniforms with masks. Actually went to extract her from a cell. She was nude when she came out she said, you promised you wouldn`t kill me and they proceeded to body slam her and tasered her four times while she was handcuffed to a chair. So this kind of behavior towards black bodies we know about. But what we don`t know the about is it happens to black women, as well. We actually think there`s a gender and race component to that. HAYES: All right. Redditt Hudson and Kimberle Crenshaw, thank you both very much. Really appreciate it. Still ahead, President Obama addresses a conference of police chiefs pushing back on the Ferguson Effect. A look at whether there`s data behind the alarmism. Plus, Donald Trump loves trumpeting his poll numbers it until they start showing him second to Ben Carson. Now, they`re, I`m quoting, "not very scientific." On the other hand, Hillary shows a huge surge in polls after a strong week of campaigning. Her team, though, says the polls are wrong. We`ll look at those numbers and more, ahead. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) ASHTON CARTER, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: We won`t hold back from supporting capable partners in opportunistic attacks against ISIL or conducting such missions directly, whether by strikes from the air or direct action on the ground. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: Defense Secretary Ashton Carter on the Hill today saying U.S. troops will be fighting ISIS on the ground. And apparent contradiction confident administration`s insistence that U.S. troops are in Iraq to advise and assist, not to have a combat role. But an apparent confirmation of what we already knew after American and Kurdish commandos stormed a prison held by ISIS in Iraq last week. An Army Master Sergeant Joshua Wheeler became the first American killed in action in Iraq since 2011, dying in combat even though according to the Pentagon he did not have a combat role. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) CARTER: He was killed in combat. That wasn`t the intent of the obviously. He was accompanying those forces but when he saw that they were running into trouble, he very heroically acted in a way that all the reports suggest spelled the difference between the success and failure of that important mission. (END VIDEO CLIP) (COMMERCIAL BREAK) HAYES: At a third Republican debate tomorrow night, Ben Carson will take center stage right next to Donald Trump, who just fell out of the top spot in the national poll of Republican voters for the first time since July. Carson edges out Trump 26 percent to 22 percent, with the other candidates far behind. And while that`s within the margin of error, it comes after a string of polls showing Carson expanding his lead in Iowa where the caucuses kick off less than 100 days from now. Campaigning in Iowa tonight, Donald Trump pleaded with his supporters to improve his poll results. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) TRUMP: Will you get the numbers up, Iowa, please? This is ridiculous. I mean, what is my competition? In all fairness, in all fairness, what is my competition? Do you think these guys, I`m not going to say Carson. I mean, I am second. It`s not like terrible. But I don`t like being second. Second is terrible to me. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: Meanwhile, Ben Carson has surged to the front of the pack while taking a break from the campaign for his book tour and while making policy statements that have ranged from baffling to downright alarming. He suggested, according to "Politico", we abolish Medicare. He told Glenn Beck he`d use the Department of Education to monitor colleges for extreme political bias and deny them funding. And now says as president, he would not sign any budget that ever raises the debt ceiling. Today, Carson seemed to veer way off-script, signaling he would support pooling and redistributing taxpayer dollars to fund underserved schools. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) DR. BEN CARSON (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They`re talking about the entire nation and we`re talking about what makes us competitive in the world. And the great divide between the haves and the have-nots is education. That`s very different than redistributing funding because you feel that that`s the social thing to do. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: Now, that idea ending our national practice of funding schools primarily through local property taxes is actually a great one and has been around for a while on the left. But it`s so far outside the mainstream, Bernie Sanders doesn`t even support it, which may it be why Carson posted clarification to his Facebook page, "I support Title 1 funding to raise up poor inner-city and rural schools. I do not support the national pooling of property tax receipts. That is a falsehood." With Republican voters rewarding Carson in the polls, it`s no wonder some of his opponent like Ohio Governor John Kasich, polling at 2.6 percent in the Real Clear Politics average are -- well, starting to snap. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) KASICH: I`ve about had it with these people. Let me tell you why. We`ve got one candidate that says that we ought to abolish Medicaid and Medicare. Have you ever heard of anything so crazy as that? We got one guy that says we ought to take 10 million or 11 million people and pick them up -- I don`t know where we`re going to go in their homes, their apartments. We`re going to pick them up and we`re going to take them to the border and scream at them to get out of our country? That`s just crazy. That is just crazy. What has happened to our party? What has happened to the conservative movement? (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: Joining me now, Republican media consultant Rick Wilson. Rick, do you feel any sympathy for the plaintive wail of John Kasich? RICK WILSON, REPUBLICAN MEDIA CONSULTANT: Imagine the size of my tiny, tiny nano-scale violin. You know, John Kasich is guy he who is like a guy who piss off the Republican voters. That doesn`t excuse one of the things -- the things that Trump and Carson are saying that are way -- frankly way outside of the limited government conservative mainstream. But I have a lot of the trouble building up a big well of sympathy for John Kasich right now. HAYES: So, here`s why I wanted to have you on. We`ve been talking about Trump the whole time. At one point, a number of times you were on, you said, basically, look, people are going to come at him on policy, right, nail him down on stuff. And, you know, he`s going have to defend whether it`s his love of eminent domain or all of his views he has that were out of line with the Republican base. What`s actually happened is that he`s just been supplanted by someone who has less policy chops as far as I can tell than he does, the one person in the race who seems to care even less about actually fleshing out a policy agenda. WILSON: The very sort of Zen nature of Ben Carson is sort of deceptive. I mean, the guy seems so calm and mindful and so quiet. And yet, there`s a lot there that is frankly, I don`t think people have had a good hard look at yet as a candidate and as a potential president. And, you know, this is a guy who has a lot of assets and a lot of high regard among Republican primary voters but there`s also a certain emerging unreadiness I think in terms of where he`s at on having a developed set of limited government principles beyond a few things and he gets in deep water very quickly. He gets over his head very quickly when you start drilling down on policy questions with him. HAYES: Here`s why I think -- I would agree with that. Let me say, here`s what I would say is my position if I`m say a big sort of GOP donor class member, if I`m in the vaunted Republican establishment. I am psyched about Carson`s rise, because here`s what it makes me think -- in 2012, we got the chart of the primary leader that happened in that summer before the 2011 where everyone sort of gets a turn, right? Those were truncated short cycles, four, six, eight weeks and eventually went into Romney. Carson`s rise at the expense of Trump makes me think hopefully, again, if I`m a donor class establishment Republican, the same thing`s happening here just on a longer time scale. Does that scan to you? WILSON: Somewhat but here`s the thing. But here`s the thing -- Trump is still a powerful force right now and still holding a lot of the part of the base that is very activated by his message, the nativist message that`s got a fraction of the base energized. The donor class can`t just sit back on the sidelines and say, oh, well, don`t worry, this will work itself out. They`re still going to have to go out and put a bullet in Donald Trump. And that`s a fact. They`re still going to eventually have to figure out ways to find candidates that are going to be of the caliber and the quality level to post up against Hillary Clinton because right now, I will tell you, no matter who you support or how much you like them, neither Donald Trump or Ben Carson is ready to go up against the Clinton machine. And that`s not saying that Jeb Bush is, or Cruz or Marco or anybody else is either. But those guys are obviously not ready for primetime when the answers that they`re giving are -- there are a dozen TV ads against Ben Carson. Whether you love him or not in the statements he made just today that the Clinton people are smart and quick and they will use against us. HAYES: That is a key point. You will start hearing that more I think, as we get closer to the beginning of the official vote counting. Rick Wilson, always a pleasure. Thank you. WILSON: Thanks, Chris. HAYES: All right. Can you imagine a congressional committee more partisan are more destructive than Benghazi Select Committee? We can. We will tell you all about it, next. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) JIM INHOFE, SENATOR OF OKLAHOMA: In case we have forgotten because we keep hearing that 2014 has been the warmest year on record, I ask the chair, you know what this is? It`s a snowball. And, that`s just from the outside here. So it`s very, very cold out. Very unseasonal. So, here Mr. President, catch this. Uh-huh. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: Right. So, the most famous climate change denier in congress, Senate Environment and Public Works Committee chairman Jim Inhofe is now thinking about taking his crusade to the upcoming climate talks in Paris, this according to The Hill, attempting to block a binding agreement by being what he calls a quote, "one-man truth squad". While Inhofe may be the public face of Republican denialism however, one of his colleagues in the house is waging something like guerrilla warfare on climate science. Congressman Lamar Smith, Republican from Texas, chairs the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, a body that David Roberts of Vox argues is even worse than the select Committee on Benghazi. Because while the Benghazi Committee is at the very least investigating a real security failure that led to the death of four Americans, Congressman Smith`s committee is spending its time hounding scientists who are advancing our understanding of climate change, a group he`s never had much regard for. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) LAMAR SMITH, REPRESENTATIVE OF TEXAS: This is nothing new. They always make these kind of predictions and obviously, there is some people that want to use environmental regulations to try to control the economy or trying to control private property. But if you look at their predictions in the past, the five or ten or 15 years, most of the predictions have been wrong, and anybody who`s going to predict what`s going to happen in the year 2100 you know, 85 years from now, is not going to be correct. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: We should note, a lot of those predictions have in fact been right. In the previous session of congress, Smith held more hearings on the search for extras terrestrial life than climate change. Now, he`s taking a different approach, effectively using the committee`s subpoena power to harass scientists whose work he doesn`t like. He subpoenaed records from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Institute over a study that refuted claims of a pause in global warming during the last decade. He conducted an intrusive review of the National Science Foundations peer review grant process, alleging the agency wastes tax payer money on frivolous research. And now he`s looking to investigate a climate research non-profit, whose director signed a letter to the Obama administration asking it to investigate fossil fuel companies that may have deceived the public about the risks of climate change. Revealingly, Congressman Smith said the letter constitutes, quote, "partisan political activity." Pot meet kettle. With all that, it should surprise exactly no one that Smith raises a huge amount of campaign cash from the oil and gas industry. This is the new normal in our Republican controlled congress, with several must pass items on the agenda including a budget, the bill to raise the debt ceiling, the House Science Committee would rather use its time to bully scientists. There has, however, been one small ray of light this week. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire just became the first senate Republican to endorse the Obama administration`s Clean Power Plant, which aims to reduce carbon emission from power plants. Ayotte, we should note, is facing a tough re-election battle against the state`s popular Democratic governor. As always, the best way to get a politician to care about an issue, is to credibly threaten their job if they don`t. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) HAYES: The Clinton campaign will begin airing a group of new ads tomorrow in New Hampshire and Iowa, just as new polling in Iowa suggests that Hillary Clinton has regained her footing. That`s putting it mildly. In the first survey since Joe Biden announced last week he would not be running for president, and since coming off her debate performance on the Benghazi testimony, Monmouth University finds Clinton with a commanding 41-point lead over Senator Bernie Sanders in Iowa. While Sanders is widely seen as running to the left of Clinton, the poll shows Clinton leads Sanders by a wide margin among people who consider themselves very liberal. In a second Iowa poll out today, this one from Laurus College, Clinton also holds a massive lead, running 38 points ahead of Sanders. But, Clinton communications director, Jennifer Palmieri, doesn`t seem to be buying it. A few hours ago she tweeted out, quote, "Let the record show we don`t just complain been public polls that are bad for us. These two Iowa polls are great for us and crazy wrong." Now, some who study campaigns argue the best predictor of who is going to win a primary is not the polls at any given moment, particularly this early on, it`s endorsements, where Hillary Clinton has a clear-cut advantage. Going into today, Bernie Sanders had a total of two endorsements. Hillary Clinton had the endorsement of ten Democratic governors, 120 house Dems, and 32 senate Dems. Today, she picked up a 33rd senate endorsement, Senator Sherrod Brown, a name that might seem unlikely and surprising to some, considering his voting record is very similar to Bernie Sanders. Earlier tonight, Senator Brown gave his rationale for endorsing Clinton to our Chris Matthews. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SHERROD BROWN, SENATOR OF OHIO: I`ve had long conversations with Secretary Clinton, with her staff people, and I have -- I`m pleased with what she`s talking about. I`m very confident that we`re going to see the kind of presidency that I think will make progressives proud. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: Joining me now, Lynn Vavreck, a political science professor at UCLA, co-author of The Gamble, a book about the 2012 presidential campaign. So Professor, I hear all the time political scientists talk about this thing called the invisible primary, and they place predictive power on endorsements. Why are those so important? LYNN VAVRECK, POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR, UCLA: One of the things to think about endorsements is the pace, and the second thing is the share. And so we want to think of those things separately but both are important, Chris. So the first is a signal that pace of endorsements is a signal of how sure are the party elites about who they want to coordinate around. And then the share of endorsements tells us that they`re picking the same person. And so both things are important, and you see different things in both parties right now. That`s interesting. HAYES: Well, here`s on today`s endorsement, Sherrod Brown endorsing Hillary Clinton, some people found that surprising because you know, Sherrod Brown ideologically and voting records seems more similar to Bernie Sanders than he does Hillary Clinton. Of course, there`s a lot of criteria that go into this selection process of endorsements. What are they other than ideologically affinity? VAVRECK: Well, elites have a lot of reasons as you`re suggesting that they might want to jump on the bandwagon with one candidate or another. Those range from wanting to be on the winning team, to hoping to play a role either in the campaign or perhaps in the administration, to just wanting to join the process and generate a little media coverage. We, as political scientists, don`t know the a lot about the individual reasons that each different political elite might make those choices, but what we`re sort of interested in and what we`re always talking to you guys about is sort of the average collective state of the endorsement pool. HAYES: Right. So, here`s where it gets interesting, right? Because on the Democratic side you`ve got a pretty clear front runner, who is a clear front runner. Hillary Clinton, both in national polling and in the endorsements. She`s mopping up. On the Republican side, it`s very different. Jeb Bush is in the lead in endorsements, he`s got Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul trailing him. None of those people are in the lead with the voters right now. And so, it seems we`ve got a really interesting fork in the road about the predictive models of endorsements, or whether we`re seeing something new that calls those endorsements into question. VAVRECK: I like to think about this in terms of timing, as well. So, when we talk about endorsements being predictive, we really are talking about a period of time before the process starts becoming a feedback loop. I would say a little bit now on the Republican side, we`ve moved into the part where it`s a bit of a feedback loop. The pace of endorsements has been slow, and I would say for 2016, that`s what we`ve learned from elite endorsements on the Republican side. The party`s having a hard time coordinating. From here forward, you want to be concerned about what you`re suggesting, that public opinion is actually influencing what elites are doing too. HAYES: I see what you`re saying. So, we saw a bunch of endorsements, people thought, oh, these people are likely to have a strong go at it. We`re seeing a sort of trickle now as people wait on the sidelines, waiting to see where things happen in terms of popular opinion, and then we`ll sort of see this kind of elites jumping back in to kind of direct the process. A really interesting model as we think about who actually is doing the choosing here. Lynn Vavreck, thank you so much. VAVRECK: Sure. HAYES: Coming up, have police officers scaled back in the wake of Black Lives Matter protests? The director of the FBI seems to think so. President Obama pushes back on the so-called Ferguson effect ahead. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) HAYES: Earlier this month, we reported on the controversial plan by the state of Alabama, which facing a budget squeeze, decided to close local DMV offices, the places where people get drivers licenses and also, provide them with a form of ID they need to vote, thanks to the states Voter I.D. law. Now, many of the offices that will close are in rural community, some predominantly African-American. And the plan would leave 28 counties entirely without an DMV office. The state argued there are other ways for people to obtain an I.D. to vote, and then later offered a small concession that those offices would open at least once a month to serve residents. But, there is good news for Alabama residents today. The state is making sure at least one of their institutions remains readily accessible. State run liquor stores. (inaudible) it announced 15 liquor stores would close statewide, those in rural areas even the ones badly losing money, will stay open, as the Alabama beverage control administrator says, "what`s hard to do is close those rural ones. They`re losing more money, but closing makes the customer constituents have to drive further to get a bottle." Apparently, the bottle is more important to the state lawmakers than the ballot. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) CHRIS CHRISTIE, GOVERNOR OF NEW JERSEY: You see murders up 19% in Chicago, and up 11% in New York, and the murder of a police officer. The problem is this, there`s lawlessness in this country, the president encourages this lawlessness. He encourages it. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Encourages it how? CHRISTIE: Well, by his own rhetoric. He does not support the police. He doesn`t back up the police. He justifies Black Lives Matter. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: Among certain politicians and certain media outlets, it has become an article of faith that the Black Lives Matter movement protesting police violence against African-Americans has endangered the lives of police officers and prompted them to scale back their crime fighting efforts, leading to and increase in crime and the violence across the country. That claim that police facing increased scrutiny have become less aggressive, leading to an increase in crime, has become known as, quote, "Ferguson effect", and there are many criminologists and observers who have pushed back hard against the theory, citing first and foremost, a lack of necessary data to the draw that conclusion. So, it was more than a little surprising when the Director of the FBI, James Comey, gave a speech in Chicago Friday, where he said he basically buys the Ferguson effect theory, though he admits he lacks hard evidence to back it up. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) JAMES COMEY, DIRECTOR OF THE FBI: Maybe something in policing has changed. In today`s YouTube world, are officers reluctant to get out of their cars, and do the work that controls violent crime? Are officers answering 911 calls, but avoiding the informal contact that keeps bad guys from standing around especially with guns? And I don`t know that that explains it entirely. But I do have a strong sense that some part of the explanation is a chill wind that has blown through law enforcement over the last year. And that wind is surely changing behavior. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: Asked about Comey`s comments yesterday, White House Press Secretary, Josh Earnest seems to distance himself from those remarks. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) JOSH EARNEST, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: I will say that the available evidence, at this point, does not support the notion that law enforcement officers around the country are shying away from fulfilling their responsibilities. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: James Comey is not the only prominent official alleging the Ferguson effect is real. The Mayor of Chicago, Rahm Emanuel is making a very similar case, telling Attorney General Loretta Lynch that, quote, "we have allowed our police department to get fetal and it is having a direct consequence. They don`t want to be a news story themselves, they don`t want their career ended early, and it`s having an impact." (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) RAHM EMANUEL, MAYOR OF CHICAGO: I met with officers from the 10th district and one officer said explicitly, when I`m driving by, I have to think about whether I want to be on the news and what it means to my career. The recent events over the last year or 18 months have had an impact, and officers will tell you that. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: It is against the backdrop of this debate the International Association of Chiefs of Police is holding their annual conference in Chicago right now. Yesterday, they heard from FBI Director James Comey, who reiterated his support of this theory. Today they heard from President Obama. And while he acknowledged the spike in crime this year in some cities, we should stress, he stressed the importance of not cherry picking data to promote an agenda. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The data shows that overall violent crime rates across the nation appear to be nearly as low as they were last year, and significantly lower than they were in previous decades. (END VIDEO CLIP) HAYES: When we come back, I`ll speak with a former police officer who says the Ferguson effect may be real and a criminologist who says not so fast. Stay with us. (COMMERCIAL BREAK) HAYES: Joining me now to discuss crime and the so-called Ferguson effect, Peter Moskus, Associate Professor John Jay College, former Baltimore police officer and the author of Cop in the Hood, about his experiences on the beat in Baltimore, and Richard Rosenfeld, Professor of Criminology and Criminal Justice at The University of Missouri, St. Louis, and past president of the American Society of Criminology. Peter, I wanted you to come in here because you and I were having an exchange on Twitter after James Comey made these comments, saying that I think that the prevalence of video cameras and the protests have changed police behavior in a way that is leading to more crime. Defend that position. PETER MOSKUS, FORMER BALTIMORE POLICE OFFICER: He raised the possibility of that. HAYES: He said, I don`t have data. MOSKUS: He said, and we need data. It was a very nuanced and thoughtful approach. I find the backlash from the left -- the way we`re cannibalizing our own. If you listen to everything he said, he`s an extremely thoughtful man. We`ve come a long way from J. Edgar Hoover when it comes to his -- HAYES: Well, that`s a low bar. MOSKUS: But he`s been saying wonderful things. I mean, to pick on that one comment -- I mean, that might be true. HAYES: Okay, but then defend -- I mean, here`s -- lay out the case in -- let`s focus on Baltimore, because I think that`s the place where you think it`s clearest. What is the theory of the case of how protests in the wake of Freddie Gray produced changes in police behavior that produces increases in crime. MOSKUS: I would say it`s less the protests, more the video cameras and in Baltimore specifically, bringing charges against six officers, or even in the worst case scenario for police, all six officers are almost assuredly not guilty. So the idea that some of them were doing their job, get in trouble for it, get criminally prosecuted for it, it`s a reasonable officer that would say, screw it, you know, one way we won`t get in trouble is if we don`t get out of our car. And that has an impact on crime. HAYES: So it`s, we`re sort of in a defensive crouch, we don`t get out of our car, that produces the conditions that allow -- MOSKUS: Yeah, and it`s less so much about officers who do wrong, it`s about officers fearing that they are doing good police work and still might get in trouble for it. HAYES: Richard, you`ve written about this, you wrote about the sort of homicide increase you`ve seen in St. Louis, and sort of going at the idea it`s a result of the aftermath of Ferguson protests. What do you make of this correlation? RICHARD ROSENFELD, PROFESSOR OF CRIMINOLOGY, UNIVERSITY OF ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI: Well, it`s just that. It`s a correlation, but it`s also a correlation based largely on anecdote and you know, very, very impressionistic evidence. My concern here, and I agree completely with Peter, is that the conversation that we`re having is impressively evidence-free. But we do have information available, were it to be released, that we could use to have a more sensible conversation. The Uniform Crime Reports, The Nation`s official crime statistics from the police that come out of the FBI, they`re released so late in the game. Ten months after the collection year, 22 months after the first month of the collection year, that they`re worthless for dealing with emerging crime problems such as this one. And so, we don`t even know how extensive crime increases are in the United States. HAYES: Or if they`re increasing. ROSENFELD: What`s that? HAYES: Or if it`s increasing. I should know, I mean, part of what I have observed is that from the very first moment there has been a rush, in some senses, it seems to me, to sort of find a crime increase in the wake of this, as if there was a sort of a predestined expectation there would be one. ROSENFELD: Right. That`s quite possible. The president today made a remark I think was right on point. Reporters have done due diligence in getting information out about crime increases in certain cities, but reporters are naturally drawn to places where there`s news, ie where there`s a crime increase after a decline. And the FBI has information in hand that it could release that would inform this conversation. Not only information on crime, but also information on arrest rates. If the Ferguson effect argument is true, we should be seeing arrest rates going down in cities where we see crime rates going up. For a time we saw that in Baltimore, but we need hundreds of cities, not just the dozen or so that reporters have told us about in order to have a sensible conversation. HAYES: Peter let me ask you this, one of the things Comey mentioned that you talked about, being filmed, altering police behavior in some ways. And, I`ve got to say, the courts are pretty clear you can do that legally. It`s constitutional to film the police. What if that ended up being the case, this exercise of constitutional supervision affected police behavior in such a way that they didn`t want to get out of their car. There`s part of me that wants to say as a citizen, like, too bad. MOSKOS: This is about moving the debate forward. We have to talk about what we want police to do, rather than just slapping them every time we see something that looks ugly. Sometimes it is bad police behavior. Other times it`s not. Police have is to use force. Rarely does that look good on YouTube. We`re at this point now where we`re just telling cops, don`t do this, don`t do this, don`t do that. And a lot of that is fair criticism. But now we have to say, okay listen, what do we want you to do? And this is what the FBI director raised. You know, at some point policing is about getting out of your car at 1 am and asking people on the corner what they`re doing hanging out there. It`s easier for the cop not to do that. We have to incentivize the job to engage the public in productive ways. HAYES: I could talk about this for an hour. I will also note, just as a final thought here, at the end of the day, we actually don`t have a great sense of what causes crime to go up and what causes crime to go down. It`s one of the great sort of unsolved sociological mysteries, although there are some indications in a variety of directions. Peter Moskos, Richard Rosenfeld, thank you both gentlemen. That is All In for this evening. The Rachel Maddow Show starts right now. Good evening, Rachel. THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. END