By NBC's Sarah Blackwill
The Romney campaign insists that the race in Iowa is much closer than our poll shows and the X-factor may be early voting. 34% of likely voters say they have already cast their ballots, and the president is winning those voters 67 to 32%. And Republicans point out that only 285,000 early and absentee ballots have been received in Iowa, equal to about 19% of the 2008 electorate. 463,000 absentee ballots have been requested in the state. Romney is ahead among voters who plan to cast ballots on Election Day by 54 to 39%.