Sept. 12, 201504:45
A new Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Clinton with a much more modest advantage over Trump -- 46% to 43% -- though the results are shaped by a series of striking gaps. There's a gender gap (women prefer Clinton; men prefer Trump), a regional gap (Clinton dominates in the Northeast; Trump dominates in the South), and a race gap (white voters prefer Trump, everyone else heavily backs Clinton).
But I was especially struck by the education gap: Clinton has a 26-point advantage among college graduates, while Trump benefits from a nine-point lead among Americans who do not have a degree. Women who went to college back Clinton by a whopping 48 points, 68% to 20%.
As for the state of the race, here's how the Republican field is shaping up, according to the new Post/ABC results:
1. Donald Trump: 33% (up nine points since July)
2. Ben Carson: 20% (up 14 points)
3. Jeb Bush: 8% (down four points)
4. Ted Cruz: 7% (up three points)
4. Marco Rubio: 7% (no change)
6. Rand Paul: 5% (down one point)
7. John Kasich: 3% (up one point)
7. Mike Huckabee: 3% (down five points)
9. Carly Fiorina: 2% (up two points)
9. Scott Walker: 2% (down 11 points)
Note, those results for Walker aren't a typo. His support really is in freefall, at least for now.
Also, Trump and Carson's combined support now stands at 53% -- despite the fact that neither GOP candidate has ever served a day in public office.
Among Democrats, the race looks like this:
1. Hillary Clinton: 42% (down 21 points since July)
2. Bernie Sanders: 24% (up 10 points)
3. Joe Biden: 21% (up nine points)
Without the sitting vice president, the Democratic race looks quite different:
1. Hillary Clinton: 56% (down 12 points since July)
2. Bernie Sanders: 28% (up 12 points)
As for President Obama, the same poll showed his approval rating up to 49%, tying a year-long high. Obviously, the president won't be on the ballot in 2016, but Obama's national support may very well affect who voters choose as his successor, making his approval rating quite relevant.