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Midterm Elections Round-Up, 9.30.22

Today’s installment of campaign-related news items from across the country.


Today’s installment of campaign-related news items from across the country.

* In Wisconsin, a Fox News poll last month showed Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes leading Republican Sen. Ron Johnson by 4 points. The newest data from the same pollster now shows Johnson ahead by 4 points, suggesting the incumbent, despite his many failures, is well positioned to win a third term.

* The same poll in Wisconsin found Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican Tim Michels tied at 47% each.

* In Pennsylvania, much of the political world spent months marveling at how embarrassing Mehmet Oz’s Senate campaign was, but the latest polling suggests the Republican is quite competitive, despite his record and ineptitude: The latest Franklin & Marshall poll found Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman ahead by only 4 points, while a new Emerson College/The Hill poll showed Fetterman ahead by only 2 points.

* The Keystone State’s gubernatorial race, however, remains less competitive: Both the Franklin & Marshall poll and the Emerson/Hill poll found Democratic Attorney General Josh Shapiro leading Republican Doug Mastriano by double digits.

* Senate Democrats’ most centrist members appear to have very different expectations about the midterm cycle: Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema said this week that Republicans are “likely” to win a Senate majority, while West Virginia’s Joe Manchin predicted that the Democratic majority will expand from 50 to 51. [Update: Sinema specifically said, “As you all know, control changes between the House and the Senate every couple of years. It’s likely to change again in just a few weeks.” Her office told me she was referring to a change "to power in Washington generally," not the Senate specifically.]

* In Arizona’s U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly launched a tough new ad this week, highlighting Republican Blake Masters’ radicalism on abortion policy.

* On a related note, the latest Fox News poll in the Grand Canyon State showed Kelly leading Masters by 6 points, 46% to 40%.

* The same poll found Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs with the narrowest of leads over Republican Kari Lake in Arizona’s gubernatorial race, 44% to 43%.