The Rachel Maddow Show, Transcript 11/6/2016

Transcript:

Show: THE RACHEL MADDOW SHOW
Date: November 6, 2016
Guest:

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC NEWS HOST: Look at that. You are looking live at
democracy plaza. What we affectionately call home, ice advantage. Our
election headquarters here at Rockefeller Plaza in New York. And up the
road in New England, you are looking live at an event in Manchester, New
Hampshire. Hillary Clinton has taken the stage for a late Sunday night
rally there on this night before election eve.

Tonight there is big news. We have been covering breaking news all
evening. Today`s letter of FBI director Comey to Congress. Mr. Comey
could not have changed the tenor of this presidential race more than he
already has. And so, his decision on this football Sunday to say in
effect, nothing to see here. The ruling on the field stands, where it
relates to those Clinton emails has both campaigns now reacting fast and
wondering what might have been.

Good evening, all. Brian Williams, Rachel Maddow, Chris Matthews. Our
full election team.

Rachel, what a six-hour period for a Sunday night it has been.

RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC HOST: It is - I mean, it has been a remarkable close
to this campaign in general. This campaign was going to be one for the
record books regardless. We have got somebody running for the first time
ever who has zero record of public service, who would be the oldest
president ever inaugural rated if he wins. We would have the first woman
president of she wins. They already made history by their just being
nominated.

But to get to the end and have it be this (INAUDIBLE), it is the best
analogy I can come up with for what the FBI did is if you were a pilot or a
firefighter as you are, or something else, which you needed a physical, go
to the doctor and get your physical. The doctor then calls your would-be
employer and says, you know, we drew blood for this physical. When you
draw blood, you can diagnose all sorts of stuff, incurable diseases,
sexually transmitted diseases, hemarogic (ph) fever. All sorts of stuff
that can kill you. So potential employer, I just want you to know, we drew
blood.

And then nine days later, your doctor then calls your would be employer
back and says, by the way, we did actually look at the blood results now
and it turns out it`s fine, in case you are thinking about still hiring
that person.

What the FBI director did here was such an intervention into this race. A
lot of o people early voted between the times that he has made that
intervention and now today when he said never mind. We will never be able
to measure the true cause of what he did. But the FBI will never be viewed
the same.

WILLIAMS: Chris Matthews, I have been watching your coverage what seems
like all afternoon and evening long. You have been on the frontline of
this story. What do you make of it?

CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC HOST: Well, I think that is all true. And I just -
I finally absorb what Rachel understands here, which is that there was a
real time impact over this nine days. It wasn`t that all that doesn`t
matter. Forget about it. It does matter because it has mattered to all
the early voting in this country.

MADDOW: Nine days.

MATTHEWS: But I do in terms of the results, I have found an interesting
parallel with baseball. The final game in the World Series where you had
that amazing three-run homer by Davis, which was sort of this intervention.
But it didn`t stop the ultimate result. In fact, it didn`t. And so, I
think the campaign will go back on.

What I`m surprised by, Hillary Clinton and her people are smart. They know
more than we know about what they wanted to. They decided not to really
jump on this. They decided not to make this a chance to spike the ball or
whatever to say we are right. They are wrong. I think they do want to end
this campaign on some other topic than the emails.

WILLIAMS: They don`t want a sound bite containing the phrase emails.

MATTHEWS: And even if it includes the Comey finally came true, they wanted
to be on something because she did say when they go low, we will go high.
I think she needs that. She is probably going to win in her head. And
therefore, she has already building toward a government that she has got to
lead.

And I think today when she started to say I know some people don`t trust
me. She is trying to build that connection which she is capable of
humility. And I think maybe by not jumping on this with all her two feet.
She may have a chance to say you know what, OK, I won this one. I`m not
perfect, but let`s talk about the future together.

MADDOW: It`s interesting to think of like just thought experiment, what
could she say about this? If she was going to jump on it, how could she
because you`re right. As long as everybody is talking by Hillary Clinton`s
emails. I mean, honestly, nine days ago when Comey came out with that
letter, he didn`t actually allege wrong doing. He didn`t actually say she
has done anything wrong. So, her saying I`m cleared still means we are
talking about this story which was nothing from the very beginning.
Nothing.

WILLIAMS: As a political matter, the Trump campaign celebrated the FBI
director for exactly nine days. Today, they pivoted instantly to see, we
told you, the system is rigged. And as a matter of law, our justice
correspondent, Pete Williams, covers the FBI director as part of his broad
meat of topics in Washington.

Pete, walk us through what this means. And I saw a statement by you today
saying in effect, this is lights out for this investigation.

PETE WILLIAMS, NBC NEWS JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Right, this is not the
halftime report to pick up on your football analogy. This is we have
looked at the emails in terms of Hillary Clinton`s, the question of whether
they were classified materials on her server which was what this
investigation was all about. What they say is that they have gone through
and found that many of them as we suspected they would be were duplicates
with a data set the FBI already had after months of gathering the documents
that were found on her server. So many of them were duplicates, some were
simply social message, what time do you want to go to the airport. And
then the remainder, they looked at and determined that there were no
additional, or if there were, just one and two, perhaps partial bits of
classified information. And that`s why Comey says this doesn`t change the
bottom line for us. They had concluded that no prosecutor would bring this
case.

WILLIAMS: All right. Pete Williams with the explanation of today`s legal
matter.

MADDOW: We are now going to go north live to Manchester, New Hampshire,
where our own Andrea Mitchell is at the Clinton event there. It is
interesting to note that in her closing argument, Hillary Clinton is
appearing tonight with Khizr Khan, the father of captain Humayun Khan who
was killed in Iraq.

Andrea, how`s it been tonight in New Hampshire? What`s happening there?

ANDREA MITCHELL, MSNBC HOST, ANDREA MITCHELL REPORTS: It`s been
extraordinary. I have got to tell you, Rachel. First of all, she did not
mention the email controversy as you noted in her earlier appearance in
Cleveland with LeBron James, trying to rally the black vote.

Their decision is and their telling us this, anytime they are talking about
emails and people are thinking about private servers, they are losing the
game. They know that there has been damage. They had the momentum over
the last nine days just stalled. And the real damage if she does end up
winning, none the less, the real damage is to Republican candidates who now
got a lifeline. So, the damage is to their Democratic opponents.

Kelly Ayotte may well win here in New Hampshire. She was not about to win
nine days ago. The same thing goes for Roy Blunt in Missouri. There are
real tangible results damaged politically to Democrats around this country
from what happened in the last nine day as you already have.

And tonight, there was a concert here. We know the (INAUDIBLE). This is
always our election headquarters on primary night here in Bryan (ph). This
armory is filled. The overflow room is filled. They have opened up the
doors to the bottom. There are lot of people here.

James Taylor played for 45 minutes. It was extraordinary. And I thought,
well, that is so mellow in such a while, how does Khizr Khan follow that.
He came and this crowd was on their feet screaming for Khizr Khan with his
heartbreaking story about his son and a message against bullying. This
just been sort of magical night staying on message and trying to recapture
the momentum going into the final day.

MADDOW: Andrea Mitchell, thank you very much. Live report from
Manchester, New Hampshire.

On that key point of the momentum. The momentum feels different this year
than it does other years because so much of the vote is already cast. It
puts a high premium on actually the candidates getting to places where
there hasn`t necessary been a lot of early vote or on places where there
isn`t early vote, trying to capture the exact moment where we are on the
campaign without so much of that vote already banked.

And on that note, we go to now Peter Alexander, who is in Moon-Township,
Pennsylvania which is where tonight`s Trump event is getting underway.

Peter, what`s the scene there in Moon-Township?

PETER ALEXANDER, NBC NEWS WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Rachel. Got
Donald Trump. He is more than an hour behind right now. He has got two
stops and two more states to go. He left Michigan the short time ago.
Will come here to Pennsylvania before heading to Virginia. Ultimately, he
will sleep in Florida tonight.

But despite that FBI email conclusion today, the folks here do not believe
that Hillary Clinton has been vindicated. Chance of lock her up have been
peppered throughout the course of last hour as we have anticipated. Donald
Trump`s arrival in his last stop in Michigan, he said what has been the
campaign`s message since this announcement. And in fact, he said that it`s
not possible that the FBI could have gone through 650,000 emails in the
last nine days. He says that Hillary Clinton is guilty and ultimately is
urging the voters to provide the final verdict on Tuesday, November 8th.

What strikes as we go out here is the fact that these people now are in the
past said they were still were coming around to Donald Trump are now
personally proud of supporting Donald Trump. And that`s what a senior
adviser told me a short time ago. He said the problem has never been the
white working class voters, it`s been the suburban Republicans, those who
were reluctant, the (INAUDIBLE) traditionally about their support of Donald
Trump. But he says those people are the ones that as a result of this
email investigation have come home. Much the same way that Mike Pence has
described it.

Important to note that we are hearing from aides over the course of this
day, they are projecting real confidence, specifically about the state of
Michigan and the upper Midwest. It`s a state that no Republican has won
since 1988. If that path doesn`t work, they are hoping he might pick up a
state like Minnesota. No Republicans won there since 1972.

Donald Trump today as we are hearing CNN sucks chants behind me right now.
Donald Trump was in Minnesota. He said he has been there many times. In
fact, today was the first time he had a rally there all campaign. He is
going to hear behind me. Back to you, Rachel and Brian.

MADDOW: Thank you. In Moon-Township, Pennsylvania. It is a weird act of,
not exactly bravery. But it is something different than it usually is on
political campaign to show up at a Donald Trump rally as a political
reporter. The way that the speakers including Trump himself direct the
crowd to turn on reporters in the room to denounce them and scream at them
and flip them off. It`s a weird thing.

WILLIAMS: Our technical folks will tell you there has been a record number
of requests for the two ear earpiece we always wear. I wear one in one
ear, but in a loud environment, you wear two and you have to block out the
world or nothing you say would make sense. It is down with the
concentration. So as long as no one gets hurt, a boisterous room I think
we would call that Moon-Township, PA.

Let`s bring in our expanded family. Nicole Wallace is here with us.
Former communications director for the Bush 43 White House and a veteran
with McCain-Palin campaign. And Eugene Robinson, Pulitzer-prize winner
with “the Washington Post” whose column this week sets out his closing
argument on why people should not vote for Donald Trump.

Nicole, what do you make of to this Sunday, in American politics?

NICOLE WALLACE, FORMER COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR FOR BUSH 43 WHITE HOUSE:
Well, I think it is a little more sinister. Going back to your blood. And
I hate blood, so I don`t know why I`m going back here.

MADDOW: Well, the blood draw.

(CROSSTALK)

WALLACE: I mean, we were on the air when the news broke. And there was
certainly the sense that there was something wrong. So listen. It was
more like the early indications are that the patient is sick. And that is
the information that people voted on.

Here is the other immeasurable. There was a great story of “New York
Times” today about impact that news had on Donald Trump as a candidate. It
turned him into something that no would buy their no friend, no family
member had been able to. It turned him into a half-way decent kid.

WILLIAMS: On message.

WALLACE: On message. Dana Bash described him today as a thunder bolt.
She heard someone of his advisors that it was like a thunder bolt from God.
It gave him the space that he could win. So not only is it immeasurable
how it affected the people who already voted, will never be able to measure
how would it effect his – her opponent? It turned him into somebody
different for 11 vital days.

MADDOW: My favorite detail in the “New York Times” story was that Steve
Bannon, the CEO of the Trump campaign, he literally caught on fire. It`s
the most overused metaphor in political life.

WALLACE: And it actually happened.

MADDOW: He was focused so much on frying to come up with a response, his
pants lit on fire.

EUGENE ROBINSON, COLUMNIST, THE WASHINGTON POST: That`s the heat of
political campaign. You know -

(CROSSTALK)

ROBINSON: I think the Clinton campaign`s reaction to today`s Comey letter
and let`s hope there are no more Comey letters before Tuesday, was just
realism. I mean, what they can do at this point, right? A whole bunch of
people have early voted under the impression that Hillary Clinton was once
again being investigated on the emails. And that, you know, all the smoke
out there. And so now, they know there`s no fire. I mean, you know, did
that affect the vote? Probably did. Did it affect the vote hugely? I
wonder, you know, given how polarized people are. I think it probably did
bring some Republicans home to party. I think it probably did and this is
more important for down ballot races. It probably did bring out some
Republicans who were just inclined, you know, to sit this one out.

MADDOW: You know, how did – had it been 36 hour? How it been three days,
nine days or something when the FBI did this. That`s fine. Nine days of
early voting when more than 30 million Americans are early voting. He hit
the sweet spot in terms of locking in something negative about one of the
candidate. I mean, if Jim Comey hadn`t done this as a designed political
missile, he couldn`t have hit it any more directly.

ROBINSON: Yes. I mean, you know, imagine though, and he come out with
this (INAUDIBLE), something that letter, second letter, the day after the
election, right, that would have been, people would understandably be going
crazy. So, you know the bulk of the vote will still be out on Tuesday.
And yes, I think the Clinton folks want to mitigate the damage if possible
but there probably was damaged.

WILLIAMS: Yes. I heard the Clinton campaign fearing tonight, the Comey
letter may have been a permission slip for moderate Republicans who
couldn`t vote for Donald Trump or so they thought, wow, early in the
evening. And went the other way, could not in the end support Hillary
Clinton.

Our first break and our coverage will continue on the other side. James
Carville, among those waiting to talk to us. We will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WILLIAMS: There they are skating on the rink that will prove by in two
night from now, will show the national map. Where the red is, where the
blue is. For now, it`s all the way up the side of our building.

We haven`t figure this way. If you are watching us on a Sunday night in
prime time, you are a nervous Democrat or you are a nervous Republican or
you can`t get behind Oakland or Denver. Be that as it may, we welcome them
all.

And we figured, one of your opening question is hey, where does this race
stand? We hear you talk so much about battleground states. We are happy
you asked that question because Steve Kornacki is over there at the big
board with a concentration on the battlegrounds.

I see some stripes over there, Steve.

STEVE KORNACKI, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Stripes because there`s two states
where it`s gets by congressional district. We will get to that one later.

But the big picture, we know, we have known this for a while. Clinton is
ahead in this final 48 hours. Trump is playing from behind. So the
question if you are Donald Trump and you are trying to pull off a come from
behind win, what do you need to happen?

Well, right now, what we see, Clinton in pretty good shape here in states
equaling 268 electoral votes. The gray you see, these are the closest
states. These have been the toss up states and obviously, if Clinton`s
that close to 270, if you are Donald Trump, you have to run the table.
Your first option here is run the table in every one of these gray states.
Every one of these toss up state. If you get them all and you get those
two congressional districts, you get 270.

The problem for the Trump campaign, some of the indications we have been
getting from early voting from the demographic patterns we have seen in
some of the early voting, suggest he is in trouble in some of these great
state.

I will give you one specifically, Nevada. Nevada is looking very shaky
based on the indications we have right now. And it seems, look. If you
give just one state, give Nevada to Clinton, she is over 270. She would be
president-elect unless, and this where Donald Trump`s last minute strategy
comes in, unless you can take one of the states that`s already blue and
flip it to the Republican side. So where is Donald Trump been spending his
time? This is raise to my brows, but think about this. We saw him in
Minnesota today. Michigan is a state they are suddenly focusing on.
Pennsylvania, Virginia, blue states all. Why is the Trump campaign
suddenly looking at these? They are looking at them because if they start
looking gray states and they need blue states, what is the formula they are
looking for? They are looking for places where there kinds of voters are.
What`s their kind of voters? We are talking about rural white voters. We
are talking about non-college white voters. We are also potentially
talking about states that don`t have large Latino populations. That`s
another story hear.

So you start looking at these states. When they look inside Minnesota,
this is an ultra, ultra-long shot. Make no mistake. But if you are the
Trump campaign, what do you see? You think about the iron range up here.
This is a very blue collar white area of the state, traditionally
Democratic. There have been some indications that Donald Trump could win
the congressional district up here that`s normally democratic. So you
think, maybe we could do something there if you are a Trump campaign.
Maybe the Upper Peninsula in Michigan. The rural parts of northern
Michigan. McComb County outside Detroit. The rural parts of Pennsylvania.
Southwest Virginia. Run up the score in the rural areas, run up the score
with non-college white votes like we have ever seen and then maybe, maybe
you could flip one or two of these states. This is an indication of the
trouble they are having in some of these toss-up states. If they can`t run
the table here, you need a Hail Mary pass in one of these blue states.
Those are the states we have looked for a Hail Mary pass.

WILLIAMS: Steve Kornacki, thank you.

Chris Matthews is here in our table. What do you make of this? I mean,
before the night is over, Donald Trump`s going to Loud County (ph) in
Leesburg, Virginia on the western end of the that band outside D.C. They
are up in Lake we all begun country in Minnesota for goodness sake.

MATTHEWS: Well, they are desperate. But the pattern is clear. This has
been – I mean, it`s a sad commentary you might say on the Democratic Party
now. They used to be the party of the little guy, the little woman, the
forgotten man Roosevelt column. And now, it`s the party of the college
educated because if there`s one indicator you look at right now, did you
finish college? Did you have any chance to go to college? And they tend
to be people voting for Hillary Clinton, who is very well educated and
reserved represents the establishment class in this country, the leadership
class.

And the Democratic Party used to represent those people. But now, when you
look at, and we are going to hear from Robert Costa about this from western
Pennsylvania. I think you have to go outside the city of Philadelphia
where I was born. Outside the suburbs where people read the newspaper,
catch the train, maybe go to New York for a play once in a while. They are
sophisticated. You go beyond that sort of the privileged area really of
the big city, Pittsburg as well and you reach the Trump voter. And he is
outnumbered. It is a he mostly. He is a well outnumbered and he is angry.
And the question I think we got to start dealing with eventually within the
next 48 hours is where they going to go next? I mean, are they going to go
back to the Republican Party under Paul Ryan? Will he be able to bring
them in or will he go - will the Democrats go looking for him?

I would like to see a competition for them. I would like to see Hillary
Clinton say, you know, and she said today, you didn`t vote for me and may
be angry at me, you may suspect me for whatever reason but I`m going to try
to bring you in. And the interesting thing is, minorities because of their
economic status in this country, have the same status as working and poor
whites. They should have the same issues. My concern, remember the great
“Saturday Night Live” thing two, three weeks ago, it showed the guy doing
black jeopardy and Tom Hanks played the Trump guy who had tall right
answers, the sort of black (INAUDIBLE). So it could bring them together.

WILLIAMS: I have enjoyed my moment though, personally, as a non-college
educated white male. I have never felt so sought out there and so special.

Our friend Lawrence O`Donnell is in our sister studio just next door with
our insiders. And they are going to weigh in on everything we have
witnessed today.

Hey, Lawrence.

LAWRENCE O`DONNELL, MSNBC HOST, THE LAST WORD: Brian, we are lucky we have
the guys who are here from tonight. James Carville and Steve Schmidt.
They have both been there on a Sunday night before the Tuesday presidential
election.

James, 1992. You were with a candidate called Clinton who was polling in
the 40s going in to Tuesday. But here`s something you didn`t have to deal
with, a letter from the FBI director. You got a campaign playbook between
the two of you that tells you what to do when you get a letter from the FBI
director?

JAMES CARVILLE, BILL CLINTON ADVISOR: This is the single strangest thing I
have ever seen in present politics starting from the press conference to
the first letter, now the second letter. I have never seen anything like
this. It`s remarkable. But you are right, there is no play book.
Political something 101, there`s not the FBI letter.

O`DONNELL: And Steve, so far, candidate Clinton, Hillary Clinton has not
said a word about this new letter.

STEVE SCHMIDT, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: No, exactly. But I don`t think
there`s much to say about it. Look. The FBI director had this
extraordinary intervention politically into the race. The FBI, the most
hollow law enforcement organization of the world is leaking in this
election like the secret police organization from a Banana Republic.

It is another institution you can put squarely on the list of discredited
ones. Institutions that have lost the trust of the American people as a
direct result of the directors in confidents in his politicization of the
agency over the last few weeks.

But look. Hillary Clinton went from being on a track to be between 350 to
400 electoral votes. Commanding lead in this race and this hurt. But
look, I think that you look at map. You know, she is on track here to be
over 300 electoral votes, somewhere between 320 to 340 heading in to.

O`DONNELL: James, I never forgot that in 1992, you guys with Bill Clinton
won the presidency with 43 percent of the vote because Ross Perot was a
strong third party. And that number was an amazing number. But what I
didn`t realize and had to look up months ago and was kind of stunned by is
that you got 100 more Electoral College votes than you need. At 43 percent
of the vote, you got 370 Electoral College votes.

CARVILLE: Right. But remember, in the Electoral College, it`s a
plurality. It is not a majority. And Perot got 19. And remember, Bush
was incumbent and he got 38, right. So it kind of predominant. Look, I
thought that Steve`s presentation of the map was actually I agreed with.
The thing that I`m a little surprised going to Loudon County, Virginia.
I`m not sure that`s his target rich area of Virginia, but he does have a
very tough map. Of all those gray states, the mother of them all is
Florida. I mean, that`s 29.

O`DONNELL: Steve, you see Donald Trump flying to Minnesota.

SCHMIDT: Right.

Like the end of a football game. You know, the dropping back. It`s fourth
down. There is three seconds left on the clock. You are throwing the ball
as hard and far as you can down the field, hoping a receiver is going to
pop up with it in the end zone. But you know, it`s unlikely to happen.
You know, statistically, he is not going win Minnesota. He is highly
unlikely to win, you know, to win the state of Michigan.

But look. We kind of come up the sea board, the state of Florida, state of
North Carolina. We look west to Arizona and you see some of the early
voting numbers now with Hispanic vote in this country. It may well be that
we are sitting around on Wednesday morning saying this race was lost at the
very first hour when Donald Trump came down the escalator and talked about
Mexicans as rapists and murders in this race. And we may hear a tidal wave
crashing of Latino vote here on Tuesday night that will forever change
American politics.

And you look. In 2004 race that Nicole and I were, you know, very much
part of, you know, President Bush`s reelection, we was – the one race,
that last six, that Republicans had won the popular vote. We got 43
percent of the Hispanic vote. I mean, Donald Trump is going to be down
less than 19.

CARVILLE: There is two things (INAUDIBLE) in election. In the morning is
how many people voted. If the health of democracy as somehow, if the
number of voter participation is some indication of it, then we can say the
democracy healthy. The second thing we are going to say I`m sure is the
country that has never been more divided. And not just by race, but as
Chris point out, by education, by location. The cities and the inner
suburbs are going to be overwhelmingly democratic. The small towns and the
rural areas are going to be overwhelming Republicans.

O`DONNELL: All right. We got to go back to the mother ship. Brian, back
to you.

WILLIAMS: All right. Lawrence, thank you. Thank you to our guests, our
insiders.

We are going to take another break and the national political reporter with
“the Washington Post” is standing by to talk to us about a state the
Clinton campaign considers load bearing. That and more as the Zamboni
works hard on a Sunday night when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KELLYANNE CONWAY, TRUMP CAMPAIGN SENIOR ADVISOR/GOP POLLSTER: So we need
basically spent all last week, Chris, for nine straight days in pining the
integrity of Jim Comey, only because they didn`t like his latest move. I
think that`s really unfortunate. Even the president of the United States
got into the act saying that we don`t deal with innuendo, we don`t deal
with speculation, we don`t - this, you shouldn`t be interfering with an
election. So do they think this announcement two days before the polls
close is quote “interfering with an election?” And so, I think that they
just were way out of bounds in the vicious attack on Jim Comey because they
didn`t like the result.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MADDOW: Donald Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway tonight on
“Hardball with Chris Matthews.”

Chris Matthews, we have been talking a lot about Pennsylvania tonight.
Both candidates are just blitzing in these last few days, but they are both
in Pennsylvania today.

MATTHEWS: Let`s go to Robert Costa. Robert Costa has been covering. He
is the national political reporter for “the Washington Post.”

Robert, give us a picture of the two kinds of voters in Pennsylvania. All-
states have them. The Trump voter and non-Trump voter.

ROBERT COSTA, NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER, THE WASHINGTON POST: Chris, to
start off, this car drive caused Pennsylvania. And you see western
Pennsylvania exactly what you have been observing. There`s a lot of Trump
signs out there. There is enthusiasm for Trump especially among white
working class voters. But in the city of Pittsburgh, the city of
Philadelphia, the organization is there for Secretary Clinton. The turnout
is there. So you could be seeing extraordinary turnout among the Trump
base, but the Clinton base which is growing especially in the diverse fine
suburb, it`s there as well.

MATTHEWS: What makes the Republicans every quadrennial believe they can
snatch Pennsylvania from the Democratic fold? Every year they see - every
time they seem to believe they can do it.

COSTA: It`s not just a direct shot. It has got to be a bang shot if you
are a Republican in Pennsylvania. You got to get the Republicans who are
skittish in Bucks County and other Philadelphia suburbs back into the fold.
There is a lot of thought when I was in Bucks County, that the FBI probe.
That news may pushed Republicans toward Trump. But you have got Democrats
in Philadelphia and in the suburbs. This is an educated area. This is an
area that`s moving toward being a blue region of the state.

MATTHEWS: The big five are going there tomorrow night to the city of the
big five. You know about that. The basketball team. We have got the
president, his wife, the former president, Hillary Clinton, the three –
the two Obamas, the three Clintons and Bruce Springsteen and Bon Jovi. Why
Philly? I mean, love the fight are going to that city we both love. But
why all this? Effort concentrated in one city the night before election.

COSTA: Because if the turnout in Philadelphia is strong and you get not
only the urban voters in Philadelphia, but you get the Springsteen voters
in the suburbs and elsewhere, then any kind of strange occurrence in west,
if you get hundreds of thousands of working class voters who usually don`t
turn out coming out in the Pittsburgh suburbs and (INAUDIBLE), then the
Democrats will be fine. If it comes out around President Obama levels in
terms of Democratic turnout in Philly.

MATTHEWS: Thank you so much, Robert Costa.

The why suppose, Rachel, this is almost like the Dominican Republic and
Haiti. They share the same land mass, but they are two different cultures.
The area around Philadelphia is probably the Amtrak route. It is part of
the east coast. It is liberal. It is cosmopolited (ph). It is diverse.
It includes a lot of white liberals, not just minorities, and then you get
out.

I remember in high school, I guess, we went to Redding, Pennsylvania. And
I know that the religious retreat. I noticed the jukeboxes has cowboy
music on them. And I realized, this T, that Carville talks about, it`s
Alabama in the middle, it`s pretty true.

MADDOW: You know, and the political contest over Pennsylvania because of
that gets really intense in terms of the ability for people to vote and
voter intimidation issues. I mean, right, you see, it`s not an accident
that when Trump and Pence have been saying, you know, go out and poll
watch. You got to make sure we are watching people vote. Leave your own
precinct and go watch these other places. They keep talking about
Philadelphia.

MATTHEWS: But they are not going to win this.

MADDOW: They want rural white Pennsylvania.

MATTHEWS: But Gene, I don`t think this is going to happen.

ROBINSON: No, I don`t think it`s going to happen either, you know. But it
is fascinating that urban rural or urban/small town split that you see in
Pennsylvania is really what is happening in the rest of the country writ-
large. I mean, it really is. You see it in Alabama, you know, in the real
Alabama where a city like Birmingham is very liberal. And increasingly so,
and then you go a few miles outside and you are literally in Alabama and
that`s true in Georgia, with Atlanta, the metropolis of Atlanta, Texas.

MADDOW: It`s true in New York. I mean.

ROBINSON: It certainly true with Texas where the cities are bright blue
and everything else is red.

MADDOW: Explains –

MATTHEWS: We don`t say writ large.

(LAUGHTER)

WALLACE: It explains her schedule. I mean, a lot - they have been on the
defense in explaining their schedule. This dynamic explains their
schedule. And this explains that they are going to have to knit together
what you have been talking about all of you this morning. That the reason
they are in blue states reliably blue states is because their vote breaks
down amongst those economic lines. And the reason they are in Pennsylvania
shoring it up is because they are not positive that there aren`t enough. I
mean, they are pretty sure, but they wouldn`t be there if they were
positive. They wouldn`t be in Michigan if they were positive that they are
not enough of these white - non-college educated voters.

So what`s so interesting is even a campaign and a candidate with all of the
resources and all of the traditional metrics and really far superior
polling, far superior ground game, they are still going to Michigan. They
are still going to Pennsylvania with seven celebrities. They are in Ohio
with LeBron James. This is a tougher state for them. But they are still
doing all of these things because they are not totally positive.

MADDOW: And that ten days ago, this was not the schedule for the end of
the campaign. This is the Comey effect. This is what Jim Comey did to the
election. That he put Donald Trump in Minnesota tonight and Hillary
Clinton in Michigan. And that is the way, that`s the effect of the
momentum change in this race that was put on this race by the external
actions of the FBI. And that`s - I mean, I think it is unforgivable sin
for the FBI, but I don`t know that it`s something we know how to project
from because we have never seen it in the modern years.

WILLIAMS: For our viewers Friday night who did not see Chris Matthews in
person reporting of the Democratic boss in the city of Philadelphia, if you
missed that, but if you were watching tonight, you could have known, he
went home for a little while because he used the word attitude on the air,
on television.

MATTHEWS: Brian, you know. Brian, imported from there long enough to know
that.

WILLIAMS: A-t-t-i-t-u-d-e.

We`re going to go to a break and has this out. We will be right back.

MATTHEWS: He is giving me attitude.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WILLIAMS: We are back skating over the candidates, they are. But soon, we
will need the rink of election night for our blue and red state map of the
United States. We will get results on election night, I promise. But for
right now, the best thing we have is polling. There`s a lot of it. Not
all of it agrees, but we have no shortage.

MADDOW: We have tons of polling. And actually, it is – depending on what
kind of political junky you are. It is either great news or terrible news
that a two days from now, we will have no more polling.

WILLIAMS: Yes.

MADDOW: This is all going to be gone.

WILLIAMS: And shaking as you are talking.

MADDOW: I don`t even know how to eat breakfast anymore without reading the
first polls in the day. But there is one thing in the polling that I just
want to point out. For everything that we have been through, over the
course of this campaign, for everything that has changed, all the twist and
turns, some reversals of fortune.

Just look at this for a second. We are going put this up on the screen.
This is how Hillary Clinton was viewed at the start of the campaign in
January, 40 percent positive. You see that? Here is how Hillary Clinton
is viewed now at the end of the campaign, October 26th. Look, 40 percent
positive – 40 percent in January. 40 percent in October.

Now look at Donald Trump. Start of the campaign. This is January Donald
Trump. Viewed positively by 29 percent of the country. Now, Donald Trump
has gone from 29 percent then to this is October, to 29 percent now.

The country has not changed. I mean, in terms of the likability, which is
the basically the core view of these candidates, we haven`t changed over
the course of everything that has happened in this campaign. And even if
you ask people how they feel about the prospect of either of these
candidate being elected, again, look at this. These numbers, as they start
in February and they go through to October. This is would you be hopeful
or satisfied if Donald Trump wins? Thirty three percent say yes. In
October, 34 percent say yes. It`s exactly the same for Hillary Clinton.
Would you be hopeful or satisfied if she wins, 43 in February, 43 now.

I mean, this campaign has been riveting. It has been through almost
unimaginable twist and turns. But you know what, these candidates and
Brian Williams has talked about this from the very beginning of this
campaign. These candidates were household names from the very, very
beginning of this. We knew how we feel about them and we still feel
exactly the same way given everything that we have been through.

WILLIAMS: I felt Donald Trump was first presidential candidate with 100
percent walking away name recognition.

MADDOW: And the only other candidate for that is Hillary Clinton.

WILLIAMS: Yes.

MADDOW: And the country – we knew what we thought about them before. We
have had that reaffirmed over all these months.

WILLIAMS: All of this somehow brings us to Hugh Hewitt. He of the radio
show that bears his name. He was here in our New York studios.

And Hugh, back to these numbers. You know, hacksaw ridge, the film, has
come out and it`s another one of those films about a pitched battle loss of
blood and treasure over a small, knurly, ugly piece of the earth. And it
seems to me with all the arguing, fussing and fighting, all the words spent
to Rachel`s point, her graphic, what have we learned as journalist psyche
to say the journalist at this point?

HUGH HEWITT, NATIONALLY SYNDICATED TALK RADIO HOST: Well, the map has
changed. I would say we learned that Donald Trump promised to shake up the
map. President Obama won Iowa by six point points. It looks like Donald
Trump is going to win Iowa. President Obama won Ohio by a couple of point.
It looks like Donald Trump is going to win Ohio.

And Gene and I both know Michigan. Michigan is a lot like Pennsylvania.
Two deep blue dots in Ann Arbor and Detroit. And Google has its big new
campus there. But out of the western, Dutch reform, part of the state or a
hail tail college (ph), the land into the north. Donald Trump sees an
opening like he sees in Pennsylvania. Doesn`t have coal country, which
might make it a harder play. So Donald Trump did change the map of
American electoral system.

However, in some doing, the back door Florida where the Latino vote surge
is real and it`s not going favorable to Donald Trump, it`s not impossible
that we could wake up on Wednesday and he would have taken Iowa, Ohio and
either or both at Pennsylvania and Michigan and still lost because he lost
Florida. It is a very strange era.

WILLIAMS: Yes. But, you know, to leave the map out of it, you went to
Harvard for goodness sake. What`s the larger message of what we have just
been through?

HEWITT: I think the larger message has to do with I brought up before JD
Vance`s book, (INAUDIBLE). A lot of people are worried about their kid`s
future. They believe that if you have got connection, your kids have a
ladder than others kids don`t have. They believe. And Peggy Noon has
written about this extensively, about the protected the unprotected in
America. And the unprotected America that are not minority believe very
strongly that Donald Trump is sounding their alarm about what`s happening
the American dream. They are talking about this in the green room with
Steve Schmidt, Jim Carville and Robert Costa.

There`s a lot to think through on this. But I`ll go back to something
Rachel said. I have to just say, Secretary Clinton owns this Comey thing
because she put the severs together. And just today, we have the cutter
story. We have that weird maid story in the “New York Post” and we have
the dog ban email to John Podesta about Chelsea getting foundation to pay
for the wedding. I mean, this is – it never stops. So her negatives have
come back and the states have come into play not because of director Comey,
but because of Secretary Clinton.

WILLIAMS: All of those stories, you just heard Mr. Hewitt mentioned, have
not been reported fully by NBC News.

But Hugh Hewitt, thank you. We will be talking to you along the way.

MATTHEWS: Rachel, all those numbers you gave us about how nothing changed
from the beginning to the end, it does bring into question the charge of
the power of the media because all the information we have delivered every
night, every hour on the hour and it hasn`t changed public opinion about
basic attitude one wit.

MADDOW: I think people do have a lot more information about both of these
candidates. I think if you ask people a quiz on the basics of them in
January, you would get different answers. But in terms of whether or not
people like them or not, same answer.

WALLACE: I think it also speaks to how settled this race has been for a
very, very long time. This is been a four, five point race for many, many
months.

WILLIAMS: Doesn`t always felt like it.

WALLACE: And I don`t think it felt like it to the Clinton camp when the
story broke, it probably narrow to about to three-point race. But it may
settle back as a five-point race by Tuesday.

ROBINSON: I`ll tell you who it felt settled to, black people and Latinos.

MADDOW: We are going to come back right after this.

WILLIAMS: So I would we will be back right after this break.

MATTHEWS: Where are you looking?

MADDOW: Who are you people? Didn`t know you could come in from that
angle.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WILLIAMS: Back here from 30 rock.

Steve Schmidt said today that the Latino vote if it is lost by Trump will
have been lost in the first hour of his first campaign event. Chuck Todd
said today the Latino vote as a story may be one of the huge driving
themes. We will be covering in this very room on election night.

Our Steve Kornacki at the big board with a look at the Latino vote.

KORNACKI: Yes. I mean, the indications – some of the indications at
least that we are getting are obviously Trump getting crushed when it comes
to Latino voters at least in the early voting so far and some of the
polling. But also maybe, maybe higher, much higher potentially Latino
turnout in this election. Now, if that happens, what does it do to the
electoral map here? Where is it most significant? It is obviously very
significant in Florida. This is pretty close to a must-win state for
Donald Trump. It is very significant in Nevada. It is very significant in
Arizona. It could potentially make the difference for Hillary Clinton in
all of these states.

There is a flip-side to this though. If you are looking for the potential
for there to be a sort of shakeup in this map, we are also getting some
indications that African-American turnout may not be as high as it was in
2012, 2008. Enthusiasm among black voters may be down. Where could that
potentially work to Trump`s favor? That could potentially help him in a
state like North Carolina. Could potentially help him in a state like
Ohio? We are talking about states here that don`t have as significant of a
Latino population where the non-white population is more of a largely black
population.

If the black turnout is low, could help Trump in these states. And also
Pennsylvania. Let me just show you quickly something inside Pennsylvania
here because you probably – that wasn`t supposed to happen. You probably
notice that Clinton campaign has scheduled a rally, the final night,
tomorrow night. Barack Obama is going to be there. Hillary Clinton is
going to be there in Philadelphia.

Well, check this out. These are the results in Philadelphia four years
ago. No surprise Obama won it. What was the margin, though, out of
Philadelphia? It was nearly half a million votes for Obama, 500,000. That
speaks to the incredible black turnout that Barack Obama generated. When
John Kerry was the democratic candidate in 2004, that margin was closer to
400,000. That`s a big difference. So the Clinton campaign, one thing that
they are a little concerned about are some of these indications about black
enthusiasm and black turnout. So this is a blue state that Trump has some
interest in. The indications are Clinton is ahead but they want to get
that black turnout number as high as they can. There is the reason why.

MADDOW: Yes. Very hard to be the next act in Democratic politics after
the first African-American president when you are talking about trying to
maintain those African-American vote numbers and enthusiasm.

I will say, though, that if you are just going to watch one number in the
polling between now and Election Day watch the national Latino number. I
mean, the last time the presidency was won by a Republican it was George W.
Bush in 2004 when he got 44 percent of the vote. Four years later, McCain,
dropped to 31, he lost. Four years later with Romney dropped to 27, he
lost. Donald Trump in the new NBC/”Wall Street Journal” Telmundo poll, his
number is down to 20 percent. And that is a number by which you lose the
presidency. That`s fatal unless everything else changes a lot more than we
think it`s going to change. If there is only one number to watch, watch
that one.

WILLIAMS: Back with more right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WILLIAMS: You are looking live. Everybody`s schedule goes late when you
are within three, two, one day of the vote. Mike Pence working late in
Wyndham, New Hampshire.

Again, the battle for New Hampshire, one of those we probably couldn`t have
predicted in full when we got started on this. But it goes on tonight.
Minute and a half left in this broadcast.

Rachel made the point right before the break, if you`re going to watch one
number on election night – and people have their favorites that they are
going to be watching – watch the Latino vote.

I would take that one step further. If you`re going to watch one network,
does this need to be said really? That this is the family? Really, we are
America`s – we are America`s dysfunctional

(LAUGHTER)

WILLIAMS: I say that with love in my heart. Yes. Nothing but love in my
heart.

MADDOW: Listen. I mean, I will say one thing that I like about working
here at this time is that things are so freaking, tense. Yes. Things are
really intense and they are tense and people are really at each other`s
throats.

WILLIAMS: I think we reflect the nation.

MADDOW: But I think this is a place where we have been able to talk about
this stuff and get into the meat of it without being uncivil. And I
wouldn`t want to be anywhere else than here tomorrow and tomorrow just I am
excited about it.

MATTHEWS: I think the Republicans are going to learn a bad lesson Tuesday
night which is you can`t spot 25 percent of the election and win the
general. You have to bring minorities in. They a shot. They lost the
African-American vote in the 60s and the civil rights movement. They never
made the phone call to Mrs. King. Jack Kennedy did. I think the Mexican-
American vote particularly could have been a great opportunity for the
Republican Party.

WALLACE: I agree.

MADDOW: And I think that - and the Latino vote right now – not just the
preference, but if the turnout is as big as it`s going to be it could
change national politics forever.

WILLIAMS: And this is how much fun we are going to be on Tuesday. Just
getting started.

Lawrence O`Donnell, thanks my friend from here - Lawrence.

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY
BE UPDATED.
END

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