Show: HARDBALL Date: November 3, 2016 Guest: Jay Newton-Small, David Paleologos, Margie Omero, Jerry Rafshoon, Andrew Sullivan, Michelle Bernard, John Feehery
CHRIS MATTHEWS, HOST: Big mo? Don`t know.
Let`s play HARDBALL.
Good evening. I`m Chris Matthews in Washington.
With just days to go, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are both making their final pushes to drive out voters. Today, neither candidate was seen cruisin` on the high road.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Putin has no respect for Hillary Clinton. He dreams -- he dreams of her becoming president. You know who else dreams of Hillary Clinton? ISIS.
She always talking about me. See, what I have is a winning temperament. I have a winning temperament. Hillary is an unstable person.
HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Donald stood on a stage and said, and I quote, "I`m honored to have the greatest temperament that anyone`s ever had."
(LAUGHTER)
CLINTON: He knows we can see and hear him, right? His instinct is to say whatever pops into his head, no matter how wrong he is. He can`t help himself. So is this someone we want to put in charge of our military?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: You take the high road? No, you take the high road!
Making a rare appearance on the campaign trail today, Melania Trump today gave her first speech since the Republican national convention. She told a crowd up in Pennsylvania that as first lady, she will focus on advocating for women and children. She called for combating, by the way, meanness in our culture, and she vouched for her husband. Let`s watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MELANIA TRUMP, DONALD TRUMP`S WIFE: He loves this country, and he knows how to get things done, not just talk. He certainly knows how to shake things up, doesn`t he?
"Make America great again" is not just some slogan. It is what has been in his heart since the day I met him. Every time my husband learned of a factory closing in Ohio or North Carolina or here in Pennsylvania, I saw him get very upset. He could see what was happening. He saw the problems. And he always talked about how he could fix them.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: Also today, we learned that the eve of the election -- on the eve itself, Monday, that`s two days, three days from now -- Hillary Clinton will join her husband, Bill, their daughter, Chelsea, and both President Obama and Michelle Obama, all at a big rally Monday evening in Philadelphia, and we will be there to cover that for a couple of hours.
Anyway, joining me right now, "Time" magazine contributor Jay Newton-Small -- we`ve missed you -- former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Steele. We`re used to you.
(LAUGHTER)
MATTHEWS: And author Ron Reagan. I think you all are fascinating.
I want you all to tell me your political noses. I want to start with you, Michael. Does your nose tell you -- I can usually tell on Thursday before an election which way the wind`s blowing. And right now, I don`t think there`s any velocity or any direction to it, but many people keep telling me it`s a little bit in Trump`s direction. How do you read the wind right now?
MICHAEL STEELE, FMR. RNC CHAIR, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: I would read the wind that way. And the objective -- or I guess, obvious, you know, information I can rely on is the car I was in this morning on my way to the airport. I was talking to the driver, and he was going on about Hillary. And I`m thinking this guy`s a Hillary supporter. He`s a minority voter.
And at the end of it, he turns around and he goes, you know, But at the end of the day, I just can`t trust her, so I think I`m voting for Trump. And that kind of momentum -- I was, like, startled because it confirms to me that Trump has sort of tapped into this late energy.
The problem he`s going to have, Chris, is with lack of organization on the ground, lack of real focus on those key battleground states until just recently, whether he can turn that vote out. The voter that was driving the car this morning, to get him to the polls, that`s going to be his real test.
MATTHEWS: Jay, you heard the word "him? I heard the word "him."
(CROSSTALK)
MATTHEWS: Yes. Right. I get it. And I think that`s a focus group of a guy. But here we got to ask about women because I keep hearing college- educated women are the best voters in the country, meaning they show up, and they`re going to show up this week because of their ambitions, their aspirations, and their attitude towards people who are trying to stymie those aspirations.
JAY NEWTON-SMALL, "TIME" MAGAZINE": So that`s always been Hillary Clinton`s firewall, right, is actually college-educated white women who are turning out in larger numbers than anticipated for her. I mean, they just love her. They -- you know, that -- that`s -- that`s who she really is trying to turn out. The interesting thing...
MATTHEWS: Explain why they like her, just for the people who are going for ABCs here. Why would a woman -- I hate to say "white." Why would a woman, a professional woman who goes to work in the morning and deals with men at work, deals with the whole thing -- why would that person be for Hillary Clinton?
NEWTON-SMALL: Well, I mean -- and again, we`re talking about a subset of college-educated white women who don`t like Donald Trump, don`t like his rhetoric, don`t really relate to him but also want to see the first female president ever elected. They really like the idea of a woman.
They understand -- they can relate to Hillary. They can see themselves to some degree in Hillary, especially the older women, and they`ve seen her over years and years and years change as they have changed and grown into the workforce.
MATTHEWS: Ron, do you have a sense of which way the things -- everybody does their anecdotal polling. We all do it. My -- I just don`t sense any direction -- I hear everybody saying Trump, like -- I heard Michael say it. I don`t know if it`s true, but I do think this is a weird weekend coming up. If there`s no wind direction, where do those undecideds go?
RON REAGAN, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, that`s a very good question. I mean, and who could be undecided at this point, really? I mean, we`ve said -- we`ve had this conversation before during presidential elections, where it gets down to the last few days and there`s still, you know, a sizable percentage of the electorate who`s undecided. And you think, How could you possibly, at this point, not be...
(CROSSTALK)
MATTHEWS: There are probably people, at least 5 percent, that said, What`d you think of Reagan? I don`t know!
(LAUGHTER)
MATTHEWS: After Obama, there`s probably 5 percent that say, I don`t know. But just remember, when the allies and the French army, the Free French Army, went into Paris, liberating the country from the German occupation, there were people lying with their towels along the Seine sunbathing! They weren`t interested!
(LAUGHTER)
MATTHEWS: There are people that just aren`t political...
REAGAN: War? What war?
MATTHEWS: ... and there`s nothing you can do about it. What are those tanks doing here? What`s all the action about today? Well, they say there`s a war going on. Give me a break!
(LAUGHTER)
MATTHEWS: Your thoughts, Ron.
REAGAN: I think you`re probably right, though, that the wind is sort of swirling at the moment. If you look at the polls and look at all the -- you know, the polling sites like 538 and the rest of them, it does seem that the race is tightening. And you`ve got to, you know, ask yourself the question why. Why are we even having this conversation? Why aren`t we talking about the coming Hillary Clinton, you know, administration and the...
MATTHEWS: Because everybody doesn`t live in Seattle. Ron, because everybody doesn`t live in Seattle.
(LAUGHTER)
(CROSSTALK)
REAGAN: I suppose that`s true. Yes, or New York or Chicago or San Francisco or Los Angeles...
(CROSSTALK)
MATTHEWS: Anyway, in her speech today out in the suburbs of Philly, Melania Trump chose an interesting area to focus on. This seems to be the thing to talk about now, the rise of cyberbullying, as I said, the meanness of our culture. Let`s watch Melania.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
M. TRUMP: Like anything that is powerful, it can have a bad side. We have seen this already. As adults, many of us are able to handle mean words, even lies. Children and teenagers can be fragile. They are hurt when they are made fun of or made to feel less in looks or intelligence. This makes their life hard and can force them to hide and retreat. Our culture has gotten too mean and too rough, especially to children and teenagers.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: OK, Jay, and then I want to hear Michael because Michael knows this as well of any of us at this table. Why do all the ads at the end -- I watched the World Series last night. It was a great game, a really great game. Baseball looked good last night and the teams looked like great. I love all those dugout shots. You really get a sense of the place.
Why is it always nasty at the end? I`m watching these ads here, with LuAnn Bennett against Barbara Comstock, a local race for the House. Nasty, nasty, nasty! And they paired them together all through the game. It`s just two women going at each other, nastily.
NEWTON-SMALL: Yes. That`s what works. I mean, polling has always showed that going negative does work and you can`t -- but you can`t do it for a long amount of time because then it destroys the things (ph). The power of going negative always works right at the end, and that`s why everybody does it, is going nasty at the end.
But I do think -- I want to -- I wanted to give you my analogy of the boat thing.
MATTHEWS: Go ahead.
NEWTON-SMALL: So I feel like Hillary is just -- we`re just short of the finish line, and Hillary`s boat has stalled and she`s kind of bailing out water with all this Comey stuff going on. And Donald Trump, the wind is coming right up behind him, but that`s also stalled, that the wind is kind of letting (ph) out of the sails a bit, and so they`re both, like, frantically paddling to get over the finish line!
(LAUGHTER)
NEWTON-SMALL: (INAUDIBLE) to get there!
MATTHEWS: This is -- I want to make a point here that Trump is such a flawed candidate -- and I think we all agree with that, Michael, you included.
STEELE: Yes.
MATTHEWS: ... that there must have been something behind that message he tapped into. You can talk about the racial (INAUDIBLE) part of it, the ethnic prejudice part of it, but there was a powerful message of dissatisfaction with the elites of this country in both parties that showed itself all through the Republican primaries. All those guys ended up looking like bozos, and they`re not bozos, but they look weak because the party record is weak in the Republican Party, doesn`t really have strength or belief left in it.
STEELE: Right.
MATTHEWS: And the Democratic Party has been so complacent this year, it hasn`t really made its case. Hillary talks about being for women and children and all. That`s good. Those are good values. But nothing -- no lift of a driving dream coming out of the Democratic message machine, nothing, that I can see.
STEELE: Well, I...
MATTHEWS: So I can see why Trump -- just think if Trump were a good candidate. Just think...
STEELE: Well, to that point...
MATTHEWS: ... if he were clean and selling what he`s been selling. Your thoughts.
STEELE: Well, to that point, Chris, I go back to my driver this morning, who when I asked him why said, Because I think Trump will help me with my business. That economic message, which was the beginning salvo from the Trump campaign, resonated and still resonates. And if -- if we had not had...
MATTHEWS: That`s in the ad, by the way. That`s in the new ad. Go ahead.
STEELE: Yes. If we had not had -- you know, entered into the land of crazy for the last 11 months, we -- and this was, as you said, a campaign that was focused on, yes, defining Washington, but going beyond Washington in a way that people felt that their futures were going to be helped by his administration, this would be a very different race right now.
MATTHEWS: Ron, what do you feel about the voters this time? I mean, I know you don`t like Trump. Most people I know don`t, either. But what is your feeling about the voter and how the voters reacted to Trump? The fact that this race, in the latest polling by "The Washington Post," is within a point or 2 points, it`s back and forth, it`s almost even. It has -- it seems like the crap doesn`t hit the fan for three days, it goes back to 50- 50 in this country.
REAGAN: Yes. Yes.
MATTHEWS: You know, if there`s no news, it goes back to 50-50 again. Your thoughts.
REAGAN: I think that people in Washington, D.C., in the political elite, if you will, and also in the media elite -- meaning us, among other people -- underestimate the level of contempt there is -- and I use that word advisedly, contempt" -- there is in the country at large for Washington elites and we in the media.
I mean, there are people that listen to what we say, I presume, but not all that many. A lot of people just tune us out and people like us out. And they really are fed up with what`s going on in Washington. They want radical change of some type. And a lot of them are low-information voters. They vote with their gut, and Donald Trump appeals to that gut.
You know, again, it`s remarkable that we`re sitting here, talking about a potential Donald Trump presidency...
MATTHEWS: I know.
REAGAN: ... which would amount to a national emergency, I have to say. I mean, we`re having fun here. We`re talking.
MATTHEWS: I know.
REAGAN: It`s a conversation. But we should be taking this very seriously. A 1 in 3 chance of Donald Trump becoming president is a 1 in 3 chance of a giant asteroid hitting the planet.
MATTHEWS: Yes.
REAGAN: You know? This is serious.
MATTHEWS: Well, there`s a part of me that wants the city to take some nitroglycerin, too, and shake itself up. I think this city needs to be shaken up.
Anyway, President Obama...
REAGAN: It does.
MATTHEWS: President Obama hit the campaign trail again today and knocked Trump as unfit to be president. He`s been -- you talk about having fun, the president`s been joyous out there, Ron, doing what he`s doing. He is so happy in this blue wall...
REAGAN: He`s so good at it, too.
MATTHEWS: Let`s watch him. Let`s watch him.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Donald Trump is uniquely unqualified to be president! I`m not joking. He is temperamentally unfit to be commander-in-chief.
Anybody who is upset about a "Saturday Night Live" skit, you don`t want in charge of nuclear weapons. This is guy who, like, tweets, They should cancel "Saturday Night Live," I don`t like how Alec Baldwin`s imitating me.
Really? I mean, that`s the thing that bothers you, and you want to be president of the United States? Come on, man!
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
OBAMA: Come on!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: Well, a short time later, Donald Trump, as you might expect, hit back. Let`s watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
D. TRUMP: He`s down here campaigning for crooked Hillary. Why isn`t he back in the White House, bringing our jobs back and helping our veterans? He`s campaigning every day. This guy ought to be back in the office working! He`s not going to be there very long, thank goodness, but he ought to be back in the office working.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: Well, there`s a lot here going on. I want to go back to Michael and the politics here of these two.
STEELE: Oh, it`s rich (ph).
MATTHEWS: It seems like they`re both -- I mean, the president has stakes in this, he wants his legacy to continue...
STEELE: Sure.
MATTHEWS: ... but clearly, he is a looser guy than I`ve seen on the stump lately from either party.
STEELE: Yes.
MATTHEWS: He is a happy guy. He`s the happy warrior out there. Who`s he going to get to vote? I`m not sure he`s going -- I notice every time he speaks, whether it`s Chapel Hill or down in Florida, he`s got this young, wind-swept look group of happy young people in their early 20s, all looking very happy, without a lot of worries.
STEELE: Right.
MATTHEWS: Who`s that bringing in? Who`s that bringing into the polls, anybody?
STEELE: That`s -- not really. And I think that`s what -- been one of the problems for Hillary Clinton. Having the president, you know, in North Carolina, in Florida, has not translated into African-Americans, for example, coming out on behalf of, you know, Hillary Clinton...
MATTHEWS: Yes.
STEELE: ... at the request of the president. He made a direct plea earlier this week for that. So yes, a lot of this, though, is these two men genuinely dislike each other, for very obvious reasons on behalf of the president, why he has very little regard for Donald Trump. So I think he gets that pleasure. He`s having fun with it.
But I don`t know how much of a lift he`s actually brought to the table...
MATTHEWS: Yes.
STEELE: ... for Hillary Clinton in terms of those key constituencies that she wanted him out there for.
MATTHEWS: Have you decided yet how you`re going to vote?
STEELE: Who, me?
MATTHEWS: Just tell me -- just tell me if you`ve decided yet.
STEELE: I`ve already voted. I`ve already voted.
MATTHEWS: Oh. Oh, God, I can`t ask you anymore. Anyway, thank you, Michael Steele.
(LAUGHTER)
MATTHEWS: Thank you, Jay Newton-Small, and thank you, Ron Reagan. I think I know where you`ve ended up in the booth. Anyway, Ron, thank you for coming on. You speak clearly.
Anyway -- I`ll say it -- let`s look inside the numbers now. We`ve seen movement in the polls in the last couple of days. And which side should be sweating out the race at this point? Trump may have some momentum -- most people are saying that -- but Clinton may still have the advantage because she had the jump on this guy. She was leading a long time before Trump made his move.
Plus, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are making their closing arguments. They`re fine-tuning their messages on the stump and in their new TV ads, which are interesting. Who`s got the most effective closing argument? And are there any voters out there who still can be swayed?
And once again, the issue of race has sadly been socked (ph) back into this presidential race, thanks in large part to the fight -- the debate last night in Louisiana featuring David Duke.
Finally tonight, my "election diary" on what last night`s game seven of the World Series could tell us about the presidential campaign. An interesting contour, very much like the last days of this campaign, lots of surprises, homers in the eighth, things like that, FBI reports.
This is HARDBALL, the place for politics.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MATTHEWS: We continue to track the key Senate races around the country. We`ve got new polling data for some of those matchups. Let`s check the HARDBALL "Scoreboard."
In Pennsylvania, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Democrat Katie McGinty with a 1-point lead -- that`s no lead! -- over incumbent Republican Pat Toomey, McGinty 48, Toomey 47. That is hard to figure.
Next to Florida, where Marco Rubio has a 6-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Patrick Murphy. I`m betting on Rubio, 50 to 44 right now. That`s a lead.
In North Carolina, Democrat -- this is a big surprise -- Deborah Ross (ph) is up by 4 over an incumbent Republican, Richard Burr, Ross 49-45. Look for Ross there.
The Democrats need to pick up four seats to win control of the United States Senate. That`s if Hillary Clinton wins the White House -- four, from 46 to 50. That`ll be enough because Tim Kaine will break the tie.
We`ll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL.
Hillary Clinton supporters were likely relieved yesterday after polls showed she had an edge in Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Florida. But, today, a WBUR poll up in New Hampshire shows Donald Trump`s up by a point now after Clinton had been leading there since the summer.
A separate Suffolk University/"Boston Globe" poll shows the candidates tied at even, 42 points a piece. In Arizona, where Clinton held a rally last night, Trump leads, however, five points, by five, 45-40, but there`s still five more points to win there. And that`s in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll.
That poll also shows a close race in the state of Georgia, where Trump narrowly leads Clinton by a percentage point, 45-44. And in Colorado, a University of Denver poll shows the candidates now tied at 39. However, NBC, that`s our network, notes that the poll assumes the Hispanic vote, the Latino vote, in that electorate at 8 -- at 9 percent, while turnout among that group in 2012 was 14 percent, and it`s expected to exceed that. So, they may have the wrong weighting going on there -- W-E-I-G-H-T-I-N-G, weighting.
To that point, the Associated Press reports today at, the national level, the tens of millions of early votes cast also point to strength from Democratic-leaning Latino voters, potentially giving Clinton a significant advantage in states like Nevada and Colorado. With more than half the votes already cast in those states, Democrats are matching, if not exceeding, their successful 2012 race.
Anyway, tonight, both candidates are set to speak in the battleground state of North Carolina, where the RealClearPolitics average has the race dead even.
I`m joined now by the Democratic pollster Margie Omero, as well as David Paleologos, Director of Political Research Center at Suffolk University.
Thank you.
Thank you, David.
David, what do you think? I have never seen so many states where they`re almost dead even. In other words, it`s hard to predict the Electoral College at this point, because there`s so many states -- even Georgia, they`re bopping back and forth, in New Hampshire, bopping back and forth. And what do you see?
DAVID PALEOLOGOS, SUFFOLK UNIVERSITY: Yes, it`s amazing. I think you kind of have before Comey and after Comey.
And if you look at the RealClearPolitics averages, and I think when we look back at this election, we will be judging a lot of the polling with the after-Comey totals. In New Hampshire, as we just released this afternoon, the polls showing the race dead even.
None of the polling prior to today had shown Trump leading or the race dead even. There are a couple of other polls that actually had...
(CROSSTALK)
MATTHEWS: Who`s moving -- David, who`s moving to Trump?
Jay Newton-Small was just here and she said she believes -- and she knows her stuff -- she said it`s white working women who didn`t go to college. That group is moving back to Trump, having been against him after that "Access Hollywood" thing came out.
PALEOLOGOS: Yes.
And we asked the Comey question, too, to your point, and that -- and this covers all demographics, really. And we asked the question of whether or not people were less likely to vote because of the Comey letter to Congress or if they thought it was an overblown story and it wouldn`t affect their vote.
Now, going into this poll, I thought it would be around 30 percent. That`s what I was hearing in other polls. In New Hampshire, it was 49 percent less likely; 44 percent said that it is an overblown story and it wouldn`t affect their vote.
That aside, among independents, the number jumps to 52 percent. And if you look at the people who are third-party voters in New Hampshire...
MATTHEWS: Fifty-two percent who believe it affects their vote? Fifty-two say it would affect their vote?
PALEOLOGOS: Less likely.
(CROSSTALK)
PALEOLOGOS: Fifty-two percent of independents who said less likely.
And if you look at total of the three third-party candidates on the New Hampshire ballot and the undecideds, it`s almost 60 percent less likely. And so I think that finding sort of crosses many demographics of the people who are the remaining voters. In addition to that...
(CROSSTALK)
MATTHEWS: Well, explain. I don`t think it`s what you`re saying.
David, it`s not clear what you`re saying. What percentage of the voters in New Hampshire are affected negatively toward Hillary Clinton by the disclosure from the FBI? What percentage are affected?
PALEOLOGOS: Forty-nine percent. Forty-nine percent.
MATTHEWS: Are now less likely to be for Hillary?
PALEOLOGOS: That`s right; 49 percent says less likely. But that number jumps over 50 percent in the key categories, which are independents and those people who are remaining to vote, which -- remaining to pick one of the two party candidates, that is, the undecideds or the third-party candidates.
And that`s a problem going forward.
MATTHEWS: Let me go to Margie Omero on this question of, we`re going to go up to Philadelphia tomorrow and talk to the political organization up there, one of the last political machines. All the ward leaders are meeting, et cetera, getting together.
How much is this ground game going to make up for Hillary? In other words, if you say both are at 48 percent, will Hillary win with 50-48 because she has got a ground game? How do you measure that?
MARGIE OMERO, DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER: Well, you would measure it first in the polls. You would have people who are being contacted a lot.
We just did a poll that measured recall of being contacted through 10 different points of contact. And Clinton did a better job at contacting her base than Trump did among his across a variety of different types of contact, Web and online and so on.
But you would also see it in the early voting, which is why you see a lot of advantages in a lot of states like Nevada and North Carolina and Florida, where...
MATTHEWS: Is that a pulled vote?
OMERO: Is that a polled -- well, you mean, is that...
MATTHEWS: Are people are called up, going to get out there and vote two weeks ahead of time? Is that pulled?
(CROSSTALK)
OMERO: I mean, look, it -- well, yes, it is part of polling. Polling captures that.
MATTHEWS: Pulling, P-U-L-L. Are they pulled out?
OMERO: Are they pulled out? Yes.
So, and you`re able -- look, we don`t know yet, is that just people voting early that would ultimately vote on the Election Day, or are you improving by banking those votes when she`s higher in the polls?
MATTHEWS: Tell me the story you told me off camera, because I want to respond to it, David, about the couple where the husband is probably for Trump, the wife is -- I`m just guessing -- the wife is for Hillary Clinton.
What goes on there?
OMERO: So, we did a focus group of couples who disagree, of Wal-Mart moms, swing voting moms, and their husbands who disagree with them.
And, in fact, we had two couples where the wives were Trump and the men were for Clinton. And we had a whole...
MATTHEWS: What does that tell you?
OMERO: Well, one of them, the man was Latino.
MATTHEWS: Ah.
OMERO: And so he was voting for Clinton. He said, if Trump wins, he`d have to leave, he`d have to leave the country.
And you had couples saying, this is the worst our marriage has ever been. Other couples saying, I watch -- we watch in separate rooms so we don`t have to be near each other, or we don`t talk about it.
And another husband said, I`m glad she doesn`t talk about it, because I don`t want to be in the doghouse.
MATTHEWS: I love it.
In our family, we don`t argue politics. That`s the genius of us. We stay away from it.
(LAUGHTER)
OMERO: I find that hard to believe.
MATTHEWS: We really -- no, we don`t. We just don`t do it. It`s hard to believe. I have too many arguments.
Anyway, thank you, Margie Omero.
OMERO: Thank you.
MATTHEWS: And, David Paleologos, thank you so much. Say hello to Ed Jesser (ph) for me.
Coming up: closing arguments. We`re seeing a flurry of new campaign ads in the final days from both Trump and Clinton. Who`s got the most effective message in the stretch? We`re going to talk TV ads now. We have talked ground game. Let`s talk TV ads, because there were some really interesting ones on the game last night.
This is HARDBALL, the place for politics.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: She is likely to be under investigation for many, many years, also likely to conclude in a criminal trial. This is not what we need in this country, folks.
We need somebody that is going to go to work.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL.
That`s Donald Trump earlier today.
With five days until America chooses its next presidents, both candidates are presenting their closing arguments now to the public. Trying to harness surging momentum, Donald Trump is releasing a number of new ads, trying to paint him, himself, as the only agent of change. Let`s watch this ad.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NARRATOR: The American moment is here. Two choices. Two Americas. Decided by you. Hillary Clinton will keep us on the road to stagnation, fewer jobs, rising crime, America diminished at home and abroad. Donald Trump will bring the change we`re waiting for. America, better, stronger, more prosperous, for everyone. A plan for tomorrow. A future brighter than our past. The choice is yours.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: That was a good ad.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton has turned more negative in depicting a bleak country divided under a Trump administration. In fact, yesterday in Las Vegas, Clinton painted -- quote -- "a grim picture of a Trump administration in appeal to undecided voters." That`s the headline.
Anyway, today, she reinforced that message by reminding voters just what Trump has said in the past, using his own words. Here she is.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: When Mexico sends its people, they`re bringing drugs, they`re rapists.
I would like to punch him in the face, I will tell you. Get him out of here.
Putting a wife to work is a very dangerous thing.
Wouldn`t you rather, in a certain sense, have Japan have nuclear weapons?
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN: And Saudi Arabia have nuclear weapons?
TRUMP: Yes, and Saudi Arabia, absolutely.
MATTHEWS: Talk of maybe using nuclear weapons, nobody wants to hear that about an American president.
TRUMP: Then why are we making them? Why do we make them?
I would bomb the (EXPLETIVE DELETED) out of them. I love war, in a certain way.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: For more on the candidates` closing arguments, I`m joined by Robert Costa, MSNBC political analyst and national political reporter for "The Washington Post," and Jerry Rafshoon, former communications assistant to President Jimmy Carter.
Robert, you first.
It does seem that Trump, now the all -- for some reason, he`s going, I would call that relatively high road, not totally. It was a comparison ad, the one we just saw. It had a bit of the morning in America aspect of a Reagan ad. Are they going to run them all weekend, or are they going to go back to the dirt?
ROBERT COSTA, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, they`re trying to rev up the vote, not just among traditional Republicans, but among working-class Democrats, independents.
And I have been driving around Pennsylvania, Western Pennsylvania all day today, Chris. And those are the people in states like Pennsylvania, the more blue, purple states that still seem to be a little bit on the fence. They want change. They aren`t sure about Trump. That`s the case Trump`s making, too. That`s the group Trump`s pitching.
MATTHEWS: And while I have got you, Hillary Clinton, I thought -- I had the sense she was going to try to go high road at the end, but this race has gotten so damn tight and so negative since the FBI report came out, that she`s had to react to that with an equal level of negativity from her side.
Do you see that, too?
COSTA: Well, what`s important about Secretary Clinton`s ads is, she`s not talking so much about the comments from "Access Hollywood," about Trump and sex and misconduct and those kind of things.
It`s really about the core issue of being president, about temperament, things she was talking about in the late summer and early fall when she was ahead in the polls, saying, there is something almost apocalyptic about the prospect of a Trump presidency.
MATTHEWS: Let me go to Jerry Rafshoon.
Jerry, I know we talked. And that first ad, you liked the first ad we saw too from Reagan -- from Trump. JERRY RAFSHOON, FORMER CARTER WHITE HOUSE COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: I liked the first ad, yes, because you don`t hear Trump.
You hear Trump say, "I approve this ad," but you have somebody talking about Trump. And you don`t have -- it isn`t as strident as Trump has been through his campaign. He didn`t run many ads prior to just recently. He didn`t run anything in the primaries. And it`s been all him. And he`s uncontrollable. This was a well-controlled ad. And it was sane.
MATTHEWS: Here he goes negative. I want you to respond to this new ad here. It`s another ad today. It`s the latest ad.
The Donald Trump campaign calls Clinton unfit for the presidency. They`re both calling each other these words. Let`s watch.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NARRATOR: Decades of lies, cover-ups, and scandal have finally caught up with Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton is under FBI investigation again after her e-mails were found on pervert Anthony Weiner`s laptop. Think about that. America`s most sensitive secrets unlawfully sent, received, and exposed by Hillary Clinton, her staff, and Anthony Weiner? Hillary cannot lead a nation while crippled by a criminal investigation.
Hillary Clinton, unfit to serve.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: So much for the high road of Trump.
RAFSHOON: Yes.
MATTHEWS: I mean, that is a totally negative ad, I think.
RAFSHOON: And it`s a mistake.
MATTHEWS: Really?
RAFSHOON: At this point, I think it`s over the top. It`s almost...
MATTHEWS: You mean, it only reaches...
RAFSHOON: ... obscene.
MATTHEWS: It only reaches the people who already hate her.
RAFSHOON: Right.
(CROSSTALK)
RAFSHOON: It reaches those people. It`s obscene.
MATTHEWS: Go ahead, Robert, your thinking about it, because that is a very tough ad. Your thoughts.
COSTA: So, I think, when I see that ad -- I just got back from Milwaukee.
And when you talk to -- when I talked to people in the Milwaukee suburbs, these Republicans, traditional, Paul Ryan, Ron Johnson Republicans, they`re still skittish about Trump at this late stage.
An ad like that speaks to them and says, this election, it isn`t about Trump. It`s about Secretary Clinton. It`s about turning out Republicans against her, rather than getting people convinced about him.
MATTHEWS: And that`s easier to sell to them.
Jerry, this idea that Republicans -- I don`t want to say this, because I like her, and I -- but I do see the problems people have with her in some cases.
RAFSHOON: Yes, of course.
MATTHEWS: But they hate her. And that seems to be the one ringing bell for Republicans. Don`t you hate Hillary? Vote for Trump.
RAFSHOON: Political -- we`re talking about ads. And political advertising can only speak to the perceptions that people have in their minds.
They`re not thinking about Anthony Weiner. She does have drawbacks and...
MATTHEWS: Well, calling him a pervert, what`s the point of that in the ad against Hillary? Hillary`s not a pervert.
RAFSHOON: Right.
MATTHEWS: To use the word is a little risky anyway. But...
RAFSHOON: Yes. I think that -- I think Trump`s overreaching there.
MATTHEWS: Yes.
RAFSHOON: And the one that he had on before was a good ad, because it was the higher, higher road, and still he made -- got his message across.
MATTHEWS: Yes.
As we have talked many times, you got a guy elected president by presenting him as he really is.
RAFSHOON: That`s right.
MATTHEWS: Jimmy Carter.
Thank you so much, Robert Costa.
Thank you, Jerry Rafshoon.
Up next: The HARDBALL roundtable is coming here to talk about the issue of race. It has peeked its nose into this race. I`m sure most -- 99 percent oft country doesn`t want it in it, but it`s in it. It`s back on the front pages thanks, in part, do I have to say these words together, David Duke, the former KKK leader who`s running for the Senate in Louisiana.
You`re watching HARDBALL, the place for politics.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DAVID DUKE, U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE: Yes, I`m the bad guy, because I defend the people of this country that made this country great, gave us a Constitution and our freedom. And we`re losing our rights in America. Anybody who stands up for this country and tells the truth, what`s happening to our country -- we`re losing our country. Anybody who does that is going to be a target of the media, just like Donald Trump.
It is time we stand up now. This is the tipping point. We`re getting outnumbered and outvoted in our own nation. Lest we stand up now, or our children have no future.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Welcome back to HARDBALL.
That was Louisiana Senate candidate, former grand wizard of the KKK and ardent Donald Trump supporter. I`m not sure Trump wants him, but he is, David Duke last night in his Senate debate. The debate was held at the historically black Dillard University and met with fierce protests from students outside the debate hall, some of whom clashed with police when they tried to enter the auditorium. Let`s watch.
(VIDEO CLIP PLAYS)
MATTHEWS: Well, Duke has embraced Trump, and that may be a lock of death. Much of his nationalistic message, as well, but so has the KKK.
"The Crusader," an official newspaper of the Klan, officially endorsed Trump`s campaign for president this week under the giant banner, "Make America great again". Hmm.
Well, Trump rejected the endorsement. In a statement his campaign put out, quote, "Mr. Trump and the campaign denounces hate in any form. This publication is repulsive. And their views do not represent the tens of millions of Americans who are uniting behind our campaign."
The issue of race has stirred up the 2016 campaign. Of course, earlier in the week in Greenville, Mississippi, a predominantly African-American church, was badly burned with the words "Vote Trump" spray painted on the side of the building. Investigators have concluded that the fire was caused by arson.
Let`s bring in the HARDBALL roundtable, Andrew Sullivan is a contributing editor of "New York" magazine, Michelle Bernard is president of Bernard Center for Women, and John Feehery is a Republican strategist.
First of all, let`s dismiss the credibility in any way of David Duke. First of all, I understand nationalism. But how do you exclude African- Americans from nationalism? African-Americans were here before most of us. It`s like 95 percent of Europeans that are African-Americans here!
MICHELLE BERNARD, BERNARD CENTER FOR WOMEN: And built.
MATTHEWS: They are the nationals --
BERNARD: This country was built --
MATTHEWS: You mean for 250 years, work without pay? Is that what you mean?
BERNARD: Exactly! This country was built on the back of African- Americans. So, you cannot exclude us, like our story is inherently the story of America.
It is -- it is so frightening, this election is so terrifying, because you know, there was a time when people might have these thoughts, but they didn`t voice them. You know, look how long it took Donald Trump to -- I mean, he`s denounced "The Crusader" or whatever the name of the newspaper is, but look how long it took him to denounce David Duke`s support of him, early on, he said --
MATTHEWS: Andrew, shouldn`t he have done it lickety-split, when he heard - - he said he never heard of David Duke?
BERNARD: Yes, and then blamed it on a hearing problem with his Mike.
ANDREW SULLIVAN, NEW YORK MAGAZINE: The fundamental truth about this election is it`s marking the moment where America becomes a majority/minority country.
MATTHEWS: It`s a reaction to that?
SULLIVAN: It`s a reaction to this across the Western world. We`re in a fascist moment here, and that is the huge force behind this --
MATTHEWS: Why would whites, as they become an actual arithmetic minority, why would they become fascist?
SULLIVAN: Because they`re defending what they think -- first of all, they don`t believe they have any choice in this. That the massive demographic shift, which is not actually about African-Americans, it`s mainly about Latinos --
MATTHEWS: I know it is. The African-American percentage in this culture is about where it`s been since we were born. It hasn`t changed much.
SULLIVAN: Yes, but we have had a massive demographic change in terms of brown people and black people and the future. And that`s happening also in Europe.
And the reaction is, we don`t want this country and we didn`t choose it. This is why immigration is so central. Because they believe, adios America, to use the other fascist Ann Coulter`s term, they believe that America is ending, their identity is ending.
And that is why Trump is going to win this election, because there are many, many people --
(CROSSTALK)
MATTHEWS: Do you believe this? Turning to the right, hard-right, alt- right?
SULLIVAN: And we`re going to see more of this stuff. There`s going to be racial conflict every day.
JOHN FEEHERY, REPUBILCAN STRATEGIST: I think there`s an element of it within the Trump support. I think you see it through Twitter. I think it`s objectionable.
MATTHEWS: Are they anti-democratic or accept the fact of a minority group, they have a right to vote?
FEEHERY: I don`t think they think enough to think about anti-democracy. I think they think something`s wrong in the country and they want to fix it and Trump is appealing because he says he`s going to fix it.
David Duke --
MATTHEWS: By the way, reasonable immigration control is not anti-anything. Every country in the world has some limits on immigration. You don`t just open the door.
So, it`s like -- by the way, the Democrats and Republicans have failed to resolve the issue of finding an enforceable, American progressive solution to immigration and enforce it. And you don`t hear many people talk like that.
BERNARD: Look, the nation is a nation of immigrants. I read somewhere that the election of Barack Obama eight years ago scared white people so bad that his election actually gave rise to Donald Trump. And I don`t know -- you know, it`s --
MATTHEWS: He got re-elected.
BERNARD: Absolutely, he was re-elected. And I question it, because white people voted him in. However, one of the things we`ve seen, we all talked in 2008, you and I were on the set saying, and I said, we are now going to live in a post-racial America.
I was completely wrong. The racism has become -- overt racism has become - -
MATTEHWS: Hope is good, do you remember the poster?
BERNARD: Hope is good. But when we watch the news every day and we see all of the fear that African-Americans have of the police --
MATTHEWS: The police shootings.
BERNARD: Exactly.
SULLIVAN: And Islam is the other critical factor that has galvanized this. It`s the gasoline on the fire. The fear that aliens are coming into our country and Trump has deliberately fostered in a way that only the fascists of the `30s have fostered, the notion that these people are a potential fifth column coming to kill you and attack you and rape you.
MATTHEWS: Here`s Hillary Clinton today, the former secretary of state, slammed Trump over the KKK. She`s making him pay for this. Here she is.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Donald Trump was endorsed by the official newspaper of the Ku Klux Klan.
They wrote their endorsement under the slogan of his campaign, "Make America Great Again." They said it`s about preserving white identity and they place their faith and hope in him. You`ve got to ask yourself, do any of us, any of us who believe in our Constitution, who believe in the rule of law, who believe that we are stronger together, who believe that we want to keep moving positively toward the vision of freedom and equality, set forth by our founders, do any of us have a place in Trump`s America?
It`s not just about communities of color. That is not who America is and we`re not going to let it ever go back to that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: Sure. Anyway, I`m not sure that that works in terms of uniting the country. It certainly may unite the 50 percent that vote for Hillary, though.
Do you think if the moderate liberals like her get back in power for four many years, they`re going to make this country less angry on the ethnic front?
BERNARD: No. It`s impossible.
MATTHEWS: Well, what are they going to do about it? Who`s going to solve the problem or help them better?
BERNARD: Look, I don`t think the problem is going to get solved anytime soon. I think it`s going to get worse. The rhetoric has been so heated that no matter who was elected, particularly if it`s a Republican Congress, they are going to -- members of Congress are going to be expected to fulfill what Donald Trump promised them.
SULLIVAN: And the left is partly responsible. The left has promoted identity politics for a generation. They`ve said all that matters is what you are, whether you`re a Latino, whether you`re black. And now, white people are saying, well, we can play that game, too. And that`s what`s fueling Trump --
(CROSSTALK)
MATTHEWS: Did you watch "SNL" two weeks ago, when the white guy played by Tom Hanks gave the same answers to Keenan Morgan on black jeopardy was the name of the skit and ended up talking just like a dissatisfied African- American, like, oh, I don`t believe the system either.
So, there is a commonality between the working class white guy and the African-American working glass guy that should be addressed politically. They should -- politicians should be able to address both groups on the same issues, I think.
Anyway, the roundtable is sticking with us. And up next, these three are going to tell me something I don`t want know.
I really believe we could have a Bobby Kennedy-type government, where you can address both groups. But we`ll see. Neither these characters --
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MATTHEWS: Well, congratulations, of course, to Chicago Cubs. They broke the 108-year drought last night to win the World Series. And interview with ESPN, actor Bill Murray, a huge Cubs fan, managed to mix a little politics into his celebration. Let`s take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BILL MURRAY, ACTOR: I don`t know what to compare -- there`s nothing to compare it to, really. I mean, I think when John Kennedy got elected president, all the Catholics thought, hey, we`re in a whole new world, everything is going to change completely. It didn`t change completely, but we got a day off from school.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEWS: Got a day off from school. Irish American there. And there`s nothing more American politics than baseball.
Anyway, we`ll be right back after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MATTHEWS: We`re back with HARDBALL and I do fear what`s coming.
Andrew, tell me something I don`t know.
SULLIVAN: I don`t think you know that Trump is probably on course to win this election. It pains me terribly to say that. This election since the Comey intervention has really become a referendum on the Clintons. If it`s referendum on them, they lose.
MATTHEWS: Michelle? Can`t top that baby.
BERNARD: That`s pretty depressing.
David Duke, a Dillard University last night. In the midst of students chanting, "No Duke, no KKK, no fascist USA." David Duke literally called the Black Lives Matter movement radical, went on and on about Jews trying to defend his statements and then called for the electric chair for Hillary Clinton for her role in what he considers to be a huge, huge debacle in Syria. Electric chair.
MATTHEWS: I don`t think he`ll win the election.
Go ahead.
FEEHERY: All right. Mitch McConnell, the leader who has expertly guided the Republicans in a difficult situation, is pouring $12 million out of his super PAC to save the Senate for the Republicans. And I think he`s going to --
MATTHEWS: Who`s getting the money?
FEEHERY: It`s going to be Rubio, Toomey, Ayotte and Roy Blount.
MATTHEWS: I think that`s really going to be interesting. I think that`s going to matter, that kind of money at the last minute.
Thank you, Andrew Sullivan. Thank you, Michelle Bernard. And thank you, John Feehery. We`ll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MATTHEWS: Election Diary Thursday, November 3rd, 2016.
Thursday before election is usually my time to make a prediction. I have a simple method. Look at the matchup right now, check the wind direction and project where things will stand on Tuesday.
Well, clearly, Hillary Clinton has a few points ahead right now, she is ahead. That`s the easy part.
Now to check wind direction and velocity, and there`s the problem. Is it still in Trump`s direction as it`s been last Friday or has Hillary changed it back to Trump`s personal conduct over the years?
OK, I`ll say it -- I watched last night`s seventh game of the World Series and here`s what happened and why I think it`s happening for Hillary Clinton right now. The Cubs got into the lead, they had the bats. And then Raja Davis hit a three-run homer with two outs in the bottom of the eighth to tie up the game for Cleveland. That`s when Trump did with the FBI report last Friday. Tied it up.
I still think the Cubs, Hillary in this case, has the bats. She`s still out there hammering Trump with the personal stuff. Forget the talk of high road. She is hitting him where he`s bleeding.
None of this is enough about the -- none of this about - remember Bernie saying, enough of the damned e-mails. You don`t get that from her.
When she spots a weakness, Hillary Clinton, she pounds and keeps pounding it. She knows the game. Bernie didn`t.
You have to tell your troops that he wants or you want to win more than they do, otherwise, they wonder who`s leading the army in the first place. So, either of this contest has to go into overtime. It just feels that way.
Trump got his rally, but Hillary isn`t -- well, isn`t she from Chicago? She`s got the bats. I`m still looking at her.
And that`s HARDBALL for now. Thanks for being with us.
"ALL IN WITH CHRIS HAYES" starts right now.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. END