Hardball with Chris Matthews, Transcript 4/4/2016

Susan Page, Tommy Thompson, Patrick Healy, Gwen Moore, Mary Spicuzza, Craig Gilbert, Mandela Barnes

Date: April 4, 2016
Guest: Susan Page, Tommy Thompson, Patrick Healy, Gwen Moore, Mary
Spicuzza, Craig Gilbert, Mandela Barnes

CHRIS MATTHEWS, HOST: The primary that makes Milwaukee famous.

Let`s play HARDBALL.

Good evening. I`m Chris Matthews in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on the eve of
tomorrow`s big Republican and Democratic tests.

Can Donald Trump prevail over questions about his fitness for the country`s
highest office? Can Hillary Clinton inspire Democrats with the prospect of
a second Clinton presidency? Can Bernie increase his victories to six of
the last seven contests, thereby shaking Hillary loose from her image as
the inevitable nominee?

Let`s start with Donald Trump. The Republican establishment here, from the
governor on down, has lined up against Trump here in Wisconsin. But here`s
the big “but.” The most recent poll, out today from Emerson College, shows
Ted Cruz ahead of Trump by just 5 points. That`s half the lead that Cruz
had in last week`s polls. So Trump may be regaining strength here in

At a rally today, Trump predicted a win here tomorrow.


DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I really believe tomorrow, we`re
going to have a very, very big victory.

If we do well here, folks, it`s over. If we don`t win here, it`s not over.
But wouldn`t you like to take the credit in Wisconsin for ending it?


TRUMP: Give Wisconsin the credit for ending it, and then we can focus on
Hillary instead of these two guys.


MATTHEWS: Well, Trump mocked his rival Ted Cruz. Here he is.


TRUMP: We`ve gone through many, many states. I`ve won, I think, 22
states. Cruz gets up, he says, I`m the only one – you know, with his –
oh, I wish he could just talk normally every once in a while.


TRUMP: Do you ever hear this? I`m the only one that has proven that I can
beat Donald Trump! Remember in the debate – I beat him five times! And I
looked over, I said, yes, but I`ve beaten you 22 times.


TRUMP: You remember that? Remember? And he stuck like this. He didn`t
say anything.


MATTHEWS (voice-over): Robert Costa`s national political reporter for “The
Washington Post,” and an MSNBC political analyst, Susan Page is Washington
bureau chief for “USA Today.” And Perry Bacon is senior political reporter
for NBC News.

Let me start with Robert. How are the Trump people looking at tomorrow`s
vet (ph) after what happened all last week with all the bad news?

base is pretty energized and motivated because of the negative week Trump`s
had, the tumultuous week he`s had. They think their people are going to
show up.

But it`s a test for the Trump campaign. They don`t have the same kind of
organization Cruz has in the state. Cruz has those conservatives in the
Milwaukee suburbs. And they want to close this thing, just like Trump said
in the Trump campaign, but it`s a test.

MATTHEWS: Do you show the polls getting closer or not? We said – I said
a moment ago that they were twice the lead that – that Cruz had twice the
lead, about a double digit, about 10 points last week. Now he`s down to
half a double digit, about 5 points. Is that your sense of the race right
now going into tomorrow`s fight?

COSTA: It`s all over with polling because some polls show it real close.
There`s a new poll out tonight that shows Trump up. It`s Cruz who`s been
leading for weeks. I think the big question is, Cruz is likely to win
Milwaukee suburbs, the Walker base, those Walker people likely going to

The question is northwest Wisconsin, southeast Wisconsin, some of the more
working-class, rural areas – harder to predict.

MATTHEWS: Well, Donald Trump today said he could be presidential if he
wants to be, but he`s not ready to be that yet. Let`s watch him.


TRUMP: I could be presidential. But if I was presidential, we`d only have
about 20 percent of you would be here because it would be boring as hell, I
will say.


TRUMP: Now, let me be unpresidential just for a little while longer, and
maybe I`ll be a little bit unpresidential as I beat Hillary because – oh!


TRUMP: We`ll beat Hillary so badly. Don`t forget, I haven`t started on
Hillary yet.


MATTHEWS: Now, Robert, I`ll get to the others later, but this whole thing
– you`ve been watching this guy. Is this his way of saying, Don`t hold me
to some test of president fitness? It`s too early for that. Don`t ask me
if I can say things correctly or not. Let me make my mistakes. Let me
test the air. Let me have fun with all this shtick of mine. Is that what
he`s trying to say to just smooth over all that went on last week?

COSTA: And he`s not just talking to the press. He`s talking to his
family. He`s talking to his friends, his closest advisers. Based on my
reporting – Bob Woodward and I sat down with him. We`re hearing
everyone`s telling Trump, Tone it down, act presidential, pivot toward the
general election.

And in private and in public he`s saying, No thanks. I`m staying to be the
swaggering guy I`ve been this whole campaign, because he things he has to
win – he thinks if he pulls back, if he pulls a punch, Cruz is going to
get some room.

MATTHEWS: Well, talk about that internal memo you got your hands on this
week that showed sort of the attitude he has on the inside.

COSTA: And it`s an attitude, Chris. I mean, this is not a soul-searching
campaign. This is not a group of people who over the weekend are saying,
Woe be us. We`ve struggled in the polls. We`re behind in Wisconsin.

Instead, they`re attacking their critics. They`re saying the critics are
wrong. We`re fine. Everything`s good. This is a campaign in a fight

A lot of people in the party establishment, they say this can`t work out
long-term. They got to do some expansion of the message. But for now,
this is a tight-knit group around Trump, and they`re fighting.

MATTHEWS: Susan Page, and then Perry. Is this still the primary, early
primary season, where you can get away with just being the best show in

SUSAN PAGE, “USA TODAY”: Well, I think we`re going to find out tomorrow
night because this is the biggest test that Donald Trump has faced since
Iowa. It`s a test of whether the kind of resilience he`s shown, to our
surprise over and over again, still conveys.

And I think he continues to have a short-term strategy of being – letting
Trump be Trump and being the kind of outrageous, outspoken figure that`s
brought him this far and refusing to do the kind of pivot that he would
have to do to be electable in November.He doesn`t seem concerned about that
at this point.

You know, his negatives now among key voter groups like women, Hispanics,
African-Americans, suburbanites are so high that it is hard to picture –
it`s hard to have a scenario where he wins the general election, but he
doesn`t seem concerned about that. He seems very focused now on the kind
of strategy that has taken him this far, made him the front-runner for the
Republican nomination.


MATTHEWS: … about women – do we have any – do we have any – Perry
just a second, please. Is there any way to read how women reacted to all
that went on last week, starting with the faces of his glamorous wife up
against Heidi Cruz, and then what happened with Lewandowski and that
battery charge, and then what happened with us on MSNBC?

All that seemed it would raise questions about fitness to women, wouldn`t
it? But you think there`s no reading yet on that total (INAUDIBLE) is what
you`re saying?

PAGE: Well, no, the ARG poll that came out today showed one of the biggest
gender gaps, I think, in the history of American polling, Trump doing
really well among men in Wisconsin and really badly among women, I mean,
just a huge disparity between the two genders. And I think that reflects
some of the things that have happened in the past week, including on your

MATTHEWS: Yes. Let me go to Perry on that. Same question to you, Perry,
because, you know, it was a bad week of press. And he`s saying in that
internal memo that Robert got ahold of that it was all the press`s fault,
fine, or the elite`s fault, or whatever. That`s a normal thing to do. But
wasn`t (ph) an objective (ph) to reality (INAUDIBLE) looks like there is in
the polling.

there`s two different campaigns going on, Chris. I think he`s right that
in terms of the Republican nomination process, he`s probably – in terms of
the voters in the primaries and caucuses, he`s probably doing fine. He`s
got a certain base. It`s maybe not big enough in Wisconsin, but he`s
likely to win in New York and Maryland going forward.

But another campaign going on was (ph) about these unbound delegates, the
potential second ballot, and those – the Republican establishment, the
people who can vote in the convention, they`re looking for a guy who can
win the election, who`s electable, who is presidential.

And Paul Ryan today saying if Cruz wins Wisconsin, we`re having a contested
convention – I think that tells you that Paul Ryan and folks like that
really don`t want to see Trump win. And Trump has got to think about
appealing to that base in case (ph) (INAUDIBLE) the elites in case he has
to win the nomination at the convention.

MATTHEWS: Yes, we`ll talk about Paul Ryan`s incipient campaign or
potential campaign in the next block. I think there`s something going on
there that you mention.

Anyway, Robert, as you said, you and Bob Woodward interviewed Trump this
week, and one of the topics was the economy. Trump had a gloomy warning
out there that we`re on the verge of a very massive recession. Trump also
was asked about investing in the stock market. He told you, quote, “It`s a
terrible time right now.”

Look, in Wisconsin today, Trump stood by his dire predictions on the
economy, though he offered one glimmer of hope – electing Donald Trump.
Here he is.


TRUMP: What I said is we`re going to go into a massive recession. But I
also say if I`m president, that`s not going to happen because I`m going to
straighten things out before it happens.


MATTHEWS: Well, there`s a logic question there, of course, Robert. If he
gets elected president, he puts together an economic plan, it takes six
months to a year to have any fiscal effect, or monetary policy effect.
What`s he talking about? There`s a recession coming next July that he can
forestall? That`s the only logic to this argument.


COSTA: … presidential candidate, Chris. I mean, it`s so unprecedented
for a major party figure to step out and start talking about a massive
recession on the horizon, calling it a terrible time to invest.

Woodward and I walked out of the meeting and we said we wonder if the
markets were open what this would do.


COSTA: Trump is talking down the economy. His answer, though, for
everything, for everything on the economy, he has a tax cut, but his real
answer, core of his campaign, trade. He thinks renegotiating trade deals
is going to cause growth.

But most economists, they`re pretty dubious about it. They say you can`t
cut the debt, the $19 trillion debt, by having trade deals. And they say
it`s going to be very hard. And they don`t expect a massive recession.
We`ve reported on that, as well. They don`t have the same view as Trump,
the broad view and the consensus in the economic community.

MATTHEWS: Perry, I`ve never heard of a politician predicting doomsday, I
mean, saying all hell goes loose if I don`t get elected. And then, by the
way, I`ll get there just in time next summer to change course that will
somehow change the economy and the economic outlook around. I mean, what
is he doing this for?

BACON: I mean, it fits his strategy, which is to say everything in America
is terrible, so we need to have a man like me fix it. So it fits what he`s

It`s a very dangerous thing, though, to talk about recessions and the
economy collapsing. If he says that kind of thing in October, the markets
really could go down if he`s likely to win. So it`s a very dangerous
comment, and it suggests – and also, it`s (INAUDIBLE) we know, as Robert
said, economic growth is going (SIC) – is growing. The job growth is
growing in America. There`s no evidence of a massive recession coming. So
again, it`s another place where Trump is at war with the facts.

MATTHEWS: Susan, last word. I mean, it looks a little selfish, doesn`t
it, to say, Elect me, or the economy is going to go down, if you`re not
sure, with (ph) objective data that something`s coming, and I`m not sure he
has any.

PAGE: You know, I think it also raises the question, if he were president
and made comments like this, it would have global implications, negative


PAGE: … for the economy. And so for some people who are maybe undecided
between the candidates, Republican-inclined, they might look at that and
say, Does this – is this the person I want to elect?

Again, it goes to the idea of Trump`s strength is his willingness to say
what he`s thinking, to not have it be filtered. But man, when you`re
trying to think about being elected president, that is also his weakness.

MATTHEWS: It`s attention-getting. There`s no doubt about it. It`s
catching our attention, Robert and Susan and Perry. I`m not sure it`s good
for the country to talk down the economic future.

Anyway, thank you all for joining us, Robert Costa, Susan Page and Perry

Coming up, as Trump and Cruz gear up for a contested convention this
summer, could it be that House Speaker Paul Ryan will emerge as the
Republican nominee? Ryan is going out of his way, of course, to say he`s
not interested, but would the party rather lose with Trump or Cruz or run a
fresh face like Ryan to topple Hillary? I`m thinking a lot about that.

Plus, the Democratic fight between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders.
Sanders has momentum right now and should win here tomorrow night. So why
is this campaign talking about mistakes it`s made in the past? I don`t
think it`s making many mistakes now.

And the HARDBALL roundtable is here in Milwaukee. Will tomorrow night`s
Wisconsin primary be a turning point in the Republican race? Will it point
the Democratic race in Bernie Sanders`s direction?

Finally, “Let Me Finish” with this political situation in our country as of

This is HARDBALL, live from Milwaukee, on the eve of the Wisconsin primary.


MATTHEWS: The United States Supreme Court has unanimously rejected a
challenge from Texas voters that would allow the state to draw election
maps reducing the strength of Latino voters. The highest court says states
may continue to count all residents when drawing election districts,
regardless of whether or not a resident is eligible to vote or if they
entered the country with proper documents.

The move denies an effort by conservatives to increase the number of mostly
white districts at the expense of largely minority voting districts. The
decision maintains the essential principle of a political system based on
one person, one vote.

And we`ll be right back.


MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL. As Republicans brace for the
possibility of their first open convention in decades, many are now eying
an outside candidate if delegates are deadlocked between Trump and Cruz.

Mike Allen of Politico reports today that, quote, “Top Republicans are
becoming increasingly vocal about their long-held belief that Speaker Paul
Ryan will wind up as the party nominee for president, perhaps on the fourth
ballot at a chaotic Cleveland convention.”

And one of the nation`s best-wired Republicans with an enviable prediction
record for this site (ph) sees a 60 percent chance of a convention deadlock
and a 90 percent chance that delegates turn to Ryan.

Speaker Ryan, who has repeatedly said he has no intention of accepting the
Republican nomination, denied again today that he`d be willing to take the
job. Here he is.


REP. PAUL RYAN (R-WI), SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: People put my name in this
thing. I said, Get my name out of that. This is – if you want to be
president, you should have run for president. And that`s just the way I
see it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So you`re not the fresh face that Karl Rove was talking

RYAN: No, I`m not the fresh face. I`m not that person.


RYAN: I`d like to think my face is somewhat fresh, not for this
conversation. I think you need to run for president if you`re going to be
president. I`m not running for president, so period, end of story.


MATTHEWS: Well, not end of story. In another interview published today by
“The Times of Israel,” Ryan also said, “Wisconsin is a fairly important
signal as to whether we`re going to have an open convention or not. If
Trump wins, then he`s putting himself in a pretty good path to clinching
the nomination. If he loses Wisconsin, it makes it more likely that it`s
an open convention.”

I`m joined right now by former Wisconsin governor and John Kasich supporter
Tommy Thompson, as well as MSNBC political analyst Howard Fineman of the

Governor, thank you for joining us. I know you`re for Kasich, but I`m
looking at a lot of coverage today that suggests that Ryan will be in the
mix once it goes to more than one ballot.

TOMMY THOMPSON (R-WI), FMR. GOVERNOR: Well, Chris, first off, thanks for
letting me be on your program, and it`s good to see you again.

But let`s face the facts. John Kasich has got the record. He`s got the
ability. He`s got the intellect to be a great president.

And if you look back at 1860, when we had the first open convention, the
first convention for Republicans, Abraham Lincoln came in number three to
the convention in Chicago and came out of it.

John Kasich is well qualified, is a great candidate, and I think he`s going
to come out with the nomination either on the second, third, or fourth

Paul Ryan is a great person. I support Paul Ryan. I asked Paul if he was
going to be a candidate for president. He said absolutely not. I think
some day, he will be president, but this year is not his time.

So I think that if everybody wants a new face and an ability to get this
country turned around, John Kasich is that person. Let`s get behind the
person that`s shown he can do it, balance the budget, run the state. He`s
got the record. He`s the person who we should nominate.

MATTHEWS: Howard, your view about Ryan, because I`m thinking that Roger
Stone, you don`t have to like the guy to know that he`s smart. And Roger
Stone suggested…

THOMPSON: That`s right.

MATTHEWS: … it`s either going to be Trump on the first ballot or Ryan on
the fourth, and the last several days since he said that, I`m beginning to
see the truth of that, because I don`t think this mishegas involving all
this chaos of Trump and Cruz and Kasich is adding up to any clarity.

Your thinking?


across the spectrum, including our mutual buddy Roger Stone, my sense of it
is that how we used the term zombie candidate the other day, you like that
terminology about Trump, well, Paul Ryan is running a Zen campaign.

What I mean by that is absolute stillness leads to, in this case, not
enlightenment, but the nomination. I think he is running by not running.
People make fun of me for saying that, because how do you prove it? I
think that interview with the newspaper in Israel shows that a prediction
is also a wish.

He didn`t have to go so far as to say a loss for Trump in Wisconsin would
mean an open convention. A lot of people think that even if Trump loses in
Wisconsin, he`s still on track for the nomination. So, for Ryan to go that
far in his assessment of the situation shows me yet another sign that, if
asked at the appropriate time, he will take it in a Cleveland minute.

MATTHEWS: Let me try a couple thoughts by you. Here`s why I think Ryan`s
in the mix if Trump doesn`t get the 1,237 requisite majority number going
into the convention in Cleveland.

Number one, Ryan has been vetted. He ran for vice president. He didn`t do
a great job. He didn`t do a bad job either running for V.P. He`s been
made speaker of the House by acclimation. The entire conservative party,
the Republican Party accepted him. And I think he`s a conservative without
the crazy.

He seems to be the golden mean in that party, and he`s also, even though
he`s been around a bit – he seems fresh. He`s part of the establishment,
but at the edge of the establishment. There`s nothing wrong with the guy
if you`re a Republican conservative, and he would unite the party, which is
what they desperately need.

Their number one goal, it seems to me right now, Howard, is to save the
Republican Party, keep it as a political party in this country. They got
to do that first before they win. And, by the way, they also would like to
beat Hillary Clinton. And Ryan could beat Hillary Clinton, because he
doesn`t have any scar tissue.

Your thinking on all your points?

FINEMAN: That`s right. Well, I agree with you. And, also, without
getting bogged down in details about the rules at the convention, there`s
no particular advantage to John Kasich.

Yes, he started running at the beginning. But other than that,
procedurally at the convention, after the first ballot, it will be just as
easy for a Paul Ryan to be nominated from the floor as it will be for John
Kasich to be nominated or continue his quest from the floor.

So there won`t be any real bar after the first ballot because about 70
percent of all the delegates after the first ballot go-round will be
unbound. It will be easy for somebody like Ryan to step down from the
chair – he`s the permanent chair of the convention. But he can easily
hand the gavel over to somebody else and, wham, he suddenly becomes a major

MATTHEWS: I think it`s all possible now. I think everything is possible
now. But we will see a lot more. If Trump loses here tomorrow, everything
becomes more possible.

Thank you very much, Howard.

Our thanks to Governor Tommy Thompson.

And thank you, of course, my friend Howard Fineman.

Up next: Democratic duel. Hillary Clinton is campaigning right now in New
York state. But could she pull off an upset here in Wisconsin tomorrow?
This is going to be close on the Democratic side. And could she end the
Bernie Sanders threat once and for all by pulling a comeback here in
Wisconsin tomorrow night?

This is HARDBALL, the place for politics, live tonight from Milwaukee.


what`s happening.

A sightseeing helicopter crashed in Tennessee, killing all five people on
board. The crash occurred near Great Smoky Mountains National Park.

A spring storm is burying some parts of New England in up to eight inches
of snow. Authorities in Rhode Island have been busy responding to crashes
on slick roads.

California Governor Jerry Brown has signed a bill raising the state`s
minimum wage into law. Wages will rise gradually to $15 an hour by 2022.

Meanwhile, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo signed a similar bill raising the
minimum wage to $15 an hour by 2018 in the New York City area – back to


going to have a bounce going into New York state, where I think we can win.
If we win in New York state, between you and me, I don`t want to get
Hillary Clinton more nervous than she already is.



SANDERS: She`s already under a lot of pressure. So don`t tell her this.


SANDERS: But I think, we win here, we win in New York state, we`re on our
way to the White House.


MATTHEWS: Welcome back to HARDBALL.

That was, of course, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont this morning at a
rally in Janesville, Wisconsin, taunting his Democratic rival, Hillary
Clinton, and sounding, I thought, very confident ahead of tomorrow`s big
Democratic primary out here in Wisconsin.

The RealClear polling average in Wisconsin shows Sanders right now leading
former Secretary Hillary Clinton by just under points. So, it`s still a
close one.

Spinning hard, Clinton`s chief strategist, Joel Benenson, however, says
that Wisconsin is tailor-made for a Sanders victory. Talk about spin.
Here he comes.


than most of the states we compete in, in Democratic primaries. It`s got a
lower population of African-Americans, a very small population of Latinos.
We have done very well in building a diverse coalition, which is why we
have won far more primary elections than Senator Sanders has, and compiled
a bigger net delegate lead in those primaries by a lot than he has.

The key here in Wisconsin is to compete hard, try to win the state. But,
in either way the state comes out, I think it`s close enough there isn`t
going to be a big shift in the 230 or plus pledged delegate advantage that
Hillary Clinton has right now.


MATTHEWS: Well, a win here in Wisconsin would extend Sanders` victories to
six out of the last seven contests and propel him to New York`s primary on
April 19 in pretty much the top of his game.

MSNBC correspondent Kasie Hunt is covering Bernie Sanders right now, and
there is a rally in Wisconsin – in Milwaukee right now. Patrick Healy, by
the way, is a “New York Times” correspondent covering the campaign as well.
And here with me in Milwaukee is U.S. Congresswoman Gwen Moore of
Wisconsin. She`s actually here from this area of Milwaukee and she`s
supporting Hillary Clinton.

Let me to go to Kasie on this.

Kasie, it all seems within the margin of error out here, Wisconsin, on both

KASIE HUNT, NBC CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Chris. Yes, forgive me. I can`t hear
you terribly well, because what`s going on here is a rave or a concert. I
can`t really tell exactly what. But we`re waiting for Bernie Sanders.

And he obviously is pretty confident going into this. You talked a little
bit about, showed what he had to say earlier. But I think there is a
little bit of danger here in the expectations game for Bernie Sanders. At
this point, we`re looking at the margin of his win, and if Hillary Clinton
can plausibly argue after tomorrow`s results that she held her own, that
this wasn`t a significant win, remember, for Bernie Sanders to catch
Hillary Clinton in this delegate lead, he has to win states, and he has to
win them big, by margins of 60 percent to 40 percent.

And their argument is going to be, if he can`t do that in Wisconsin, where
else is he going to do it? That said, if he does do well here, it`s going
to set up two weeks heading into New York that are potentially very
difficult for Hillary Clinton. And I think, looking ahead, the Sanders
campaign is planning a series of major events in New York City, all
expected to draw potentially thousands of people.

We saw tens of thousands, basically, in the Bronx, 18,000 people showing
up. That`s going to be a potentially embarrassing and difficult stretch
for her to deal with in her adopted home state, although one note I will
say, Chris, back to Wisconsin, the crowds today have not been where they
often are for Senator Sanders.

They have been smaller. Even this rally is a little smaller. In Green
Bay, he had a crowd of hundreds, not thousands. That`s pretty unusual.
Whether it`s a telling sign ahead of tomorrow, we will have to wait and
find out.


Thank you very much, Kasie Hunt, who is with the Sanders campaign.

Patrick Healy, you write in “The New York Times” today – quote – “Despite
the urging of some advisers, Mr. Sanders refused last fall and early winter
to criticize Mrs. Clinton over her $675,000 in speaking fees from Goldman
Sachs, an issue that he now targets almost daily. He also gave her a pass
on her use of private e-mail as secretary of state, even though some allies
of his wanted him to exploit it, and he insisted on devoting time to his
job as a senator from Vermont last year, rather than matching Mrs.
Clinton`s all-out effort to capture the nomination.”

Sanders adviser Tad Devine, by the way, responded to your report today in
an interview with Andrea Mitchell. Here he is.


them about this a couple of weeks ago. I think they were determined to
write a story, if Bernie Sanders had run a tough, personal, negative
campaign, he could have defeated Hillary Clinton.

There`s only one problem with that. He was never going to run that
campaign. That`s not who he is.


MATTHEWS: Patrick, what inspired you to write a story about what might
have been last year or earlier in the campaign? I mean, Bernie is doing
pretty well right now. Why go back to what could have, would have, should
have happened months ago?

PATRICK HEALY, “THE NEW YORK TIMES”: Well, that`s exactly it, Chris. He`s
doing really well right now. And the reality is, is that he`s still far
behind Hillary Clinton in terms of the pledged delegate count, certainly in
terms of superdelegates.

But the pledged delegate number is key. He`s more than twice behind her
compared to the lead that Obama had over Hillary Clinton in 2008, that
Hillary Clinton was never able to get – to catch up to. So, what we were
looking at was looking at the question of, was – is Hillary Clinton
beatable? You know, was she beatable? And did Sanders do kind of whatever
it took to beat her?

And what we found in reporting and talking to Tad Devine and others is that
there were sort of a series of judgment calls or missed opportunities in
2015 that could have positioned Bernie Sanders to be in a much sort of
stronger posture against Hillary Clinton in the pledged delegate count
right now.

Their entire strategy was based on sweeping Iowa, New Hampshire, and
Nevada. That didn`t happen. They only won New Hampshire. They had to
change strategy after Nevada. Then they had to change strategy again after
Super Tuesday.

And they find themselves now doing well. He`s got a good chance of winning
in Wisconsin tomorrow. He`s going to contest New York pretty firmly. But
he`s still so far behind in the pledged delegates, and, you know, we can
sort of jockey and strategize and spin all we want.

But the delegate math, as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama knew very well
in 2008, and as you know, is the essential sort of standard here. And the
reality is, the questions are being asked even in the Sanders campaign,
could there have been a way to have a much closer fight now than they do?

MATTHEWS: Patrick, well, it great to have you back covering politics
again, my buddy. Thank you.

HEALY: Sure.

MATTHEWS: Let me go to Congresswoman Moore.

Would Hillary Clinton have given Bernie Sanders a bye on the e-mails if it
was his problem? I watched the night that Bernie Sanders in that debate
says, enough about the e-mails. Would Hillary Clinton have ever let a guy
off the hook? Because he had her, and he let her go. And that`s when I
said, this is a protest campaign. This guy isn`t running to win.

By the way, let`s go back to Hillary again. Is she going to win here
tomorrow night?

REP. GWEN MOORE (D), WISCONSIN: I think Hillary is.

I think any time, Chris, that your campaign relies on not having African-
Americans in the state, relies on not having Latinos, and that`s – you
have bragging rights about your potential to win because you don`t have a
diverse state, I think that just speaks volumes about what…

MATTHEWS: What do your constituents think of Bernie when you talk to them?
What do they think of Senator Sanders?

MOORE: Well, you know, I…

MATTHEWS: Stranger? Is he a stranger?

MOORE: Well, you know, it`s always good to have new friends.


MOORE: And so there are many people who had never heard of Bernie Sanders.
And I point out to them that he`s been elected to something or another
since 1981.

And so whatever criticisms they have of Hillary Clinton, I said, yes, but
guess what, she`s been there. She`s been there through the good times,
through the bad times. Stuff that`s broken, she`s made efforts and has
legislated to fix. And Bernie is a new friend with aspirational,
professorial sorts of views.

MATTHEWS: OK. I got a question for both of you.

Why does Hillary Clinton get dull when she gets in the lead? The minute
she gets ahead and looks like she`s going to win, no more excitement, no
more charisma, just, I`m ahead and I`m sitting here. It`s like the
tortoise and the hare.

MOORE: Well…

MATTHEWS: What is it? How come she`s – how come the campaign is getting
tight right now? Bernie is gaining on Hillary right now. Why?

MOORE: Well, Bernie has spent a lot of time here. And let me just…


MATTHEWS: I`m talking about nationwide, nationwide. It`s down to about
five points.

MOORE: Right.

Well, you know, Bernie is exciting. I mean, he`s promising no health care
premiums. He`s promising free college. He`s going to decriminalize
marijuana. He`s going to do all this, and he doesn`t have any numbers
behind any of his initiatives.

MATTHEWS: What is Hillary going to do?

MOORE: Well, I think…

MATTHEWS: What is Hillary going to do?

MOORE: What Hillary is going – Hillary is going to do what Hillary does.

MATTHEWS: But what is that? What is that?

MOORE: And that is that she`s willing to sit down, even with people who
don`t agree with her, and come to some kind of consensus. Bernie –

MATTHEWS: What`s one thing – what`s one thing she`s going to do for the
Democratic voter that they can get excited about when they vote tomorrow?

MOORE: Well, one of the things she`s going to do for people here in
Wisconsin is not just complain about manufacturing jobs leaving the state,
but actually is going to put the political will together to really put some
resources into the solar energy economy, the high-tech economy.


MATTHEWS: This is the problem you got with Hillary.

You know, Patrick, that`s the problem. Hillary Clinton does not have an
exciting, glistening object she can put out in front of the voters and
says, if you elect me, I will do this.

MOORE: Well, Chris, creating jobs ought to be exciting to people.

MATTHEWS: Well, but they all promise that.


HEALY: Well, she`s never caught on in that way, in terms of being the
exciting, high-enthusiasm candidate.

The Clinton campaign can point to different polls that she`s – that her
supporters are enthusiastic, but the reality is, she got several hundred
supporters out in Harlem the other day.

Bernie Sanders had 18,000 out in the Bronx. You know, there`s just a
difference there. But the reality is, as you know well, the tightness
that`s going on right now, sort of the nervousness in her camp, a lot of it
is about New York. She cannot allow herself to be beaten in her adopted
home state. That`s a real concern.

She beat Obama by 18 points in 2008. If somehow Bernie Sanders is able to
flip this and he`s able to beat her there, while the delegate math may not
change appreciably, it could change somewhat, but more so, it will create
such a counternarrative to the Hillary Clinton campaign, that the primaries
after that in Pennsylvania, California, and also the superdelegate
conversations could become really problematic for Hillary.

MATTHEWS: Just one word from you. How will Bernie`s accent go over in
Europe – in New York?

HEALY: I think it will go over pretty well, Chris. I think they will be
wondering about like, this guy is from Vermont, really?


MATTHEWS: I know. It sounds like local.

Anyway, thank you.

What subway stop is that, Senator?

Thank you, U.S. Congresswoman Gwen Moore from here for welcoming us, and
Patrick Healy of “The New York Times.”

Still ahead, on Wisconsin, could tomorrow`s primary change the dynamic of
these campaigns? I have got a Milwaukee roundtable coming here, all three
of them right here with me.

You`re watching HARDBALL, live from Milwaukee now, the place for politics.



UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I have long thought Trump was a side show. I`m amazed
he`s lasted this long. It almost frightens me.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Bernie really has a grassroots movement going. He`s
got a lot of the millennials. He`s got a lot of the working class laborers
behind him.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The best and the worst is honestly, I`d probably say
Hillary Clinton.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I`m kind of liking Trump, just because he`s not pulling
any punches. He`s just saying what he thinks instead of all the political
double speak that you hear.


CHRIS MATTHEWS, MSNBC ANCHOR: That`s the voice of Wisconsin voters you saw
right there.

Welcome back to HARDBALL here.

Rolling into tomorrow`s Wisconsin primary, front-runners Donald Trump and
Hillary Clinton are looking at strong challenges from their chief
opponents, of course, Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders. Cruz and Sanders are on
opposite ends of the ideological spectrum, of course, but they have a
common challenge, they need to crush their opponents to win the nomination
at this point. It`s April 4th today.

Would a win in Wisconsin give either of these challenges candidates the
momentum to overcome the front-runner in each case?

Well, joining me right now, two reporters from “The Milwaukee Journal
Sentinel”, Mary Spicuzza, and Craig Gilbert, as well as Wisconsin state
representative, Mandela Barnes, a Democrat who represents Northeast

Representative, I`ve got to ask you a question. As a Democrat, what is
this bill out here that means you can`t vote unless you have a photo voto,
whatever, you`ve got to show some government-issued ID or you can`t vote?

First of all, I think it`s a very exciting day to be in the state of
Wisconsin. But the need to have photo ID to vote is a part of the
Republican agenda across the entire country to limit the electorate. And
higher turnout elections, Republicans cannot win across the country. The
changing demographics –

MATTHEWS: So, their way of dealing with demographic change –

BARNES: The only way they can cope with a high voter turnout is to limit
the amount of people that can actually cast a ballot.

MATTHEWS: So, what about these college students? They can`t vote with
their student IDs, I hear.

BARNES: Well, absolutely. Well, there are a number of schools who are –
who have IDs that are allowable, but not every college. It creates so much
confusion amongst the young people.

MATTHEWS: Mary, tell me about the state tomorrow, tell me what we`re
looking at on the Democratic side. Bernie has got the Bern, and he`s got
the college campuses, Madison, you`ve got college campuses all over the
state, right?

mean, Madison is Bernie territory. Those early rallies that he had in
Madison were like 10,000 people. And that was –

MATTHEWS: How come Madison is still like it was in the `60s? How come it
has not changed since the Vietnam War at all? Craig?

grown. People vote like crazy. The Democrats draw margins out of Madison
they couldn`t have dreamed of 20 or 30 years ago. Madison had a Republican
congressman –

MATTHEWS: How come Berkeley hasn`t changed, Ann Arbor hasn`t changed,
Madison hasn`t changed? These centers of progressivism are the same as
they were in my day in college.

GILBERT: Yes. And it has a big impact on state politics. I mean, you`ll
see Bernie tomorrow will draw huge numbers at Madison. I mean, it`s like
the best performing county in America for Democrats.

MATTHEWS: Yes, let me ask you about the outcome. Which way is it going?
Can you tell? Is Hillary tightening it up, is Trump tightening it up?

SPICUZZA: I think Hillary is tightening up in some areas. And we`re not a
winner-take-all state. So, it will be interesting to see, I would assume
Bernie is going to do very well in Madison. I think Hillary will lead in
Milwaukee, although the college students will turn out for Bernie here.

I think Trump, he does have support in Janesville. He does in places up
north. Certainly not southeastern Wisconsin, which is kind of conservative
talk radio land, Scott Walker land.

MATTHEWS: Cruz people.

SPICUZZA: Cruz people all the way.

MATTHEWS: Why do you think the talk radio people on the right are totally
in bed with Cruz? They don`t like Trump at all for some reason.

GILBERT: Yes, it starts with being anti-Cruz. They weren`t in bed with
Cruz a month ago or two months ago. They were moving toward – where they
had Walker and then they were moving toward Rubio. And their guys kept
dropping out.

MATTHEWS: It looks like a million little Mark Levins out there?

GILBERT: Cruz is just a vehicle, right? It`s a strategic tactical move
that came together in Wisconsin, the anti-Trump stuff was always there.

MATTHEWS: What percentage of the Democratic primary will be African-

BARNES: It will be around maybe 6 percent. The state of Wisconsin is 6
percent African-American. Maybe a little smaller. Maybe 5, 4 percent.

MATTHEWS: Bernie country.

BARNES: I wouldn`t say that much.

MATTHEWS: We`re going to come back. You have to give me a scoop. The
roundtable is sticking with us.

And up next, these people are going to tell me something I don`t know, a
scoop out of Milwaukee.

Anyway, HARDBALL live from Milwaukee on the eve of the Wisconsin primary.


MATTHEWS: We`ve got a big day of programming set for you for tomorrow
night. Wisconsin voters head to the polls. At 7:00 p.m., I`ll have a
special edition of HARDBALL at 7:00 p.m. Eastern live from here in

Then, at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, I`ll join Brian Williams, of course, and Rachel
Maddow for complete primetime coverage with full results and analysis of
the Republican and Democratic races here. It`s all here on MSNBC, the
place for politics. And we`ll be right back.


MATTHEWS: We`re back with a HARDBALL round table.

Mary, tell me something I don`t know.

SPICUZZA: I was pretty surprised last week. I had an interview with
Donald Trump and some other reporters on his plane. As the interview was,
and then he noticed I had gotten interrupt bid some of the other reporters
and allowed me to stay back and ask some questions I hadn`t gotten a chance
to ask that I was talking over.

MATTHEWS: That surprised you?

SPICUZZA: I was surprised. Seemed quite gentlemanly.



GILBERT: So, Donald Trump says John Kasich should get out of race because
he`s taking my votes. We look at the numbers in Wisconsin, it`s not true.

Now, this may not shock you, but the Kasich people really don`t like Donald
Trump. Most won`t even vote for Trump in fall. They`re little less
comfortable from Ted Cruz, which is why Ted Cruz is on the air attacking
John Kasich, to beat down his numbers.

MATTHEWS: Oh my God.

Anyway, Representative?

BARNES: Yes, my perspective as a legislator: Wisconsin had some very
unique issues, the highest black male incarceration rates and we had a
highest black, white achievement gap in the nation. We also have
exuberantly high black male unemployment in the city of Milwaukee, the
candidate who can best address those issues on the Democratic side is going
to be the ones who carries those votes tomorrow.

MATTHEWS: What policy would improve those numbers?

BARNES: Well, one thing we got to do is get better at how we treat our
non-violent offenders and our drug offenders. We`ve done it wrong.

MATTHEWS: You mean users?

BARNES: Yes, our users. Absolutely, the people who have mental illness
who are locked away in prisons across this entire country, but specifically
here in the state of Wisconsin, where our African-American incarceration
rate, male, is at 13 percent.

MATTHEWS: I wish you can tell me surprisingly.


MATTHEWS: It`s a sad story all around.

Let me ask you about, who`s going to win tomorrow night?

SPICUZZA: I think Cruz is going to lead. I would not be surprised if
Trump and Kasich get delegates too. I think Bernie has a very strong
chance of winning in Wisconsin, but I think Hillary will certainly get
delegates in the Milwaukee area.

MATTHEWS: You hear that?

GILBERT: The dirty little secret about Wisconsin is that it almost always
votes for the front-runner for presidential primaries, contrary to its
image. It looks like trend is going to end tomorrow.

MATTHEWS: Wow. Well, it voted for Kennedy in 1960 and Gene McCarthy in
1968. I remember those.

Anyway, thank you, Mary Spicuzza. Thank you, Craig Gilbert of the paper
out here, and to State Representative Mandela Barnes.

When we return, let me finish with the political situation in this country.
How`s that for a big story? The situation.

You`re watching HARDBALL, the place for politics.


MATTHEWS: Let me finish tonight with the political situation in this

I think Donald Trump has a powerful hold on the Republican vote. It`s
driven by the deep feeling of anger that this country has been betrayed by
its governmental elite, by bad trade deals, of failure to stem illegal
immigration, the futility and stupidity of the Iraq war. All these factors
add to Trump`s strength in the voting booth – economic, cultural, matters
of life and death. In all, the people who vote for Trump believe they`ve
been betrayed, as long as Trump sticks to these issues, the better chance
he has of wrapping up this nomination.

Hillary Clinton, the Democratic front-runner faces a very different
situation. It`s just not clear what her issues her. Yes, she would be the
first woman president, but that`s the icing on the cake. What`s the cake?

And here`s the problem: Bernie Sanders offers lots of benefits to the
voter, free tuition at state colleges and university. Did you hear that?
Free. Much fatter monthly checks for Social Security retirees, free health
care for life.

All that sounds pretty, pretty good to someone in their 20s facing a big
college loan debt. It sounds just as good to a retirees looking at a too
skinny Social Security check to someone facing high medical or prescription
drug co-pays.

So, what`s Hillary Clinton offering? What`s she got to show to the
Democratic voter here in Wisconsin should she get elected? Voters want to
know. Show me the money as Cuba Gooding used to say in movies.

What`s she`s got to give Democratic voters is the question. They`re
looking for an economic break. What`s in your wallet, they ask her, as
they think of all that Bernie has promised them.

And that`s HARDBALL for now. Thanks for being with us.

“ALL IN WITH CHRIS HAYES” starts right now.


Copyright 2016 CQ-Roll Call, Inc. All materials herein are protected by
United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed,
transmitted, displayed, published or broadcast without the prior written
permission of CQ-Roll Call. You may not alter or remove any trademark,
copyright or other notice from copies of the content.>