Show: ALL IN with CHRIS HAYES Date: November 5, 2016 Guest: A.J. Delgado, Eric Boehlert, Matt Barreto, Harry Enten, Stephanie Schriock, Teal Baker, Matt Mackowiak
CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST: Good evening from New York. I`m Chris Hayes. And at this hour, we have dueling rallies -- Donald Trump about to take the stage in an event in Reno, Nevada; Hillary Clinton about to hold a concert in Philadelphia with singer Katy Perry.
I can`t believe it, but we are just now three days from Election Day. And as of this morning, there have been nearly 40 million votes already cast. The data suggesting Latinos are already giving Clinton a big boost in key states. More on that in a bit.
National polls show Clinton with a three-point lead in this final weekend. Although, of course, it all comes down to the Electoral College. If you count the states where Clinton has a clear lead, she has 268 electoral votes in hand according to "FiveThirtyEight." She needs, of course, at least 270 electoral votes to win.
Clinton is closing her campaign accompanied by big names including, last night in Cleveland, Beyonce, rocking the pant suit, and Jay-Z. Also being boosted by her big name surrogates, among them President Obama, Bill Clinton, and Bernie Sanders.
Trump has been much more on his own with some prominent swing state Republicans keeping their distance. And Trump`s close ally, Chris Christie, canceling planned events in New Hampshire after two of his former aides were convicted by a Federal jury in the Bridgegate scandal.
Joining me now, Trump campaign senior adviser A.J. Delgado. You guys, I think, feel fairly confident. You got the candidate going all over the place, Minnesota, places that, I think, you know, you wouldn`t expect. Do you guys have internal data suggesting those states are more competitive than the public data is showing?
A.J. DELGADO, DONALD TRUMP`S CAMPAIGN SENIOR ADVISER: Absolutely. And I think, just based on trade deals alone, when you have working class Americans like those in neighborhoods across the country, regardless of whether it`s in a blue state, who have been affected by the trade deals that Hillary Clinton supports and the 5 million manufacturing jobs that were lost as a result of, for example, NAFTA, of course, Mr. Trump`s message, in addition to his anti-war message, to his anti-illegal immigration --
HAYES: Anti-war message?
DELGADO: -- yes -- to his anti-illegal immigration message, all of that resonates even in blue states.
HAYES: Wait a second. Can you tell me how "bomb the S out of them" is an anti-war message?
DELGADO: Can you tell me how playing chicken with Russia won`t lead to World War 3?
HAYES: No, but I didn`t --
DELGADO: And her policy with Syria --
HAYES: Right. But --
DELGADO: -- won`t lead to World War 3?
HAYES: You can say --
DELGADO: You know Hillary Clinton is a warmonger.
HAYES: You could --
DELGADO: I don`t think you could deny this. Bernie Sanders --
HAYES: I think that`s --
DELGADO: -- see this --
HAYES: I think that`s strong --
DELGADO: -- and her supporters see this.
HAYES: I think that`s a very strong --
DELGADO: I realize you have to day that.
HAYES: I think that`s a strong point, but he literally -- that`s a quote of him, "We`re going to bomb the S out of them." You can say that he has different judgment, different perspectives, but that is very hard to classify as an anti-war message. For this --
DELGADO: So we all agree that ISIS needs to be --
HAYES: For the --
DELGADO: We don`t agree that we need set up a no fly zone over Syria the way Hillary Clinton proposes --
HAYES: But bomb the S out of --
DELGADO: -- which will lead to military conflict with Russia.
HAYES: A.J. A.J., all I`m saying is, bomb the S out of --
DELGADO: She`s a warmonger, Chris. Everybody agrees on this.
HAYES: A.J., all right. I don`t think that`s true.
DELGADO: OK.
HAYES: First of all, clearly, not everyone agrees on it. But all I`m saying is, whatever you think of Hillary Clinton, right, you just characterized his message as an anti-war message. "Bomb the S out of them" is not an anti-war message. That`s all I`m saying.
You can say anything you want about -- but "bomb the S out of them," and take your loyal (ph) is not --
DELGADO: You`re using anti-war literally. I mean that some people don`t have a fervent interventionist approach --
(LAUGHTER)
HAYES: OK. Fine.
DELGADO: -- the way Hillary Clinton does.
HAYES: OK.
DELGADO: Which you have admitted on this show --
HAYES: I think she has --
DELGADO: -- that you have severe concerns, as do many Bernie Sanders supporters --
HAYES: Yes. I think she has interventionist instinct.
DELGADO: -- about her huge military intervention instincts.
HAYES: Yes. Right.
DELGADO: Which are very big problems, actually with Russia and the situation there.
HAYES: I think there`s also other problems with giving a lot of bunch of people nuclear weapons. Let me ask you this. A.P. has this story about Melania Trump working illegally. While she was here, she clearly was paid to do work without a work visa. That`s a violation of immigration law.
DELGADO: No.
HAYES: I don`t care. Why should she not be punished for that, but millions of Americans should be and millions of other immigrants should be?
DELGADO: Well, you`re assuming that report is correct. It`s not. She was here legally, worked legally. She`s always observed all the laws.
HAYES: So the --
DELGADO: And then the big issue is --
HAYES: Wait a second. Are the documents faked?
DELGADO: I`m not sure what documents you`re referring to. What`s in that article --
HAYES: The A.P.`s story --
DELGADO: -- I think we`d have to go back many years --
HAYES: The A.P.`s story has --
DELGADO: -- to see if the documents are correct. We`d have to go back many years.
HAYES: The A.P.`s story has documents of her getting paid while she`s not on a work visa to work, which is a violation of immigration law --
DELGADO: OK.
HAYES: -- which is something, let`s be clear, millions of people do every year. And I don`t think they should --
DELGADO: Chris, let`s be clear. The only issue we`re going to talk about Melania Trump is these two phenomenal speeches that she has delivered.
HAYES: No, no, no.
DELGADO: America has fallen in love with this women.
HAYES: She broke --
DELGADO: We can`t wait to have her as first lady.
HAYES: She broke the law.
DELGADO: She did not break the law. I`m sorry. Do you want to talk about breaking the law?
HAYES: You think --
DELGADO: Do you want to talk about Hillary Clinton --
HAYES: Wait, you`re saying --
DELGADO: -- bribes that she --
HAYES: Tell me --
DELGADO: -- accepted through the Clinton Foundation?
HAYES: A. J. A.J.
DELGADO: Let`s talk about the million dollar gift --
HAYES: A.J., I understand this is --
DELGADO: -- from Carter.
HAYES: A.J., I understand this is a pivot.
DELGADO: Let`s talk about the Russia-Iranian deal.
HAYES: I understand this is a pivot. I know it. I know it.
DELGADO: Let`s talk about the Algerian arms deal.
HAYES: OK.
DELGADO: That`s the breaking of law --
HAYES: I understand that`s --
DELGADO: -- that concerns American citizens.
HAYES: I understand that`s a pivot. I get that. That`s the talking point.
DELGADO: It`s not a pivot.
HAYES: But my question --
DELGADO: It actually matters.
HAYES: No, no. But my question is --
DELGADO: It`s a pivot to relevance, to the American voters.
HAYES: No. A.J., you are --
DELGADO: To what actually matters.
HAYES: A.J., you are representing a candidate who has said that he would go door to door in this country and kick millions of people out --
DELGADO: When did he say that?
HAYES: -- because they broke the law.
DELGADO: Wait, wait. Fact check. When did he say that?
HAYES: When he said there was a deportation force.
DELGADO: When did he say -- a deportation force already exists. It`s called ICE.
HAYES: Right. Right. And they will --
DELGADO: So you`re saying Obama goes to all --
HAYES: And that`s going to be extended.
DELGADO: Oh, wait, wait, wait. Obama uses ICE.
HAYES: So my question is --
DELGADO: Is Obama going door to door?
HAYES: A.J.
DELGADO: Is that what you`re saying?
HAYES: My question to you is, for people that have broken the law in the way similar to Melania Trump, why should those people be deported?
DELGADO: She did not break the law.
HAYES: So the A.P. got the story wrong?
DELGADO: She did not break the law.
HAYES: The A.P. got the story wrong?
DELGADO: I`d have to look at the report and see what they have claimed. This is ridiculous that you`re claiming Melania Trump was working illegally. And as if this matters --
HAYES: I`m not claiming.
DELGADO: -- three days out.
HAYES: As if it matters? This is a person --
DELGADO: The only relevant issue is what a great first lady Melania Trump would be.
HAYES: A.J., this is a candidate who, for 15 months, has said that immigrants who are coming here illegally are breaking the law and have to pay the consequences.
DELGADO: Yes.
HAYES: That candidate, the candidate that you are supporting has said this for 17 months.
DELGADO: And this is a candidate, Hillary Clinton, who, for months, has said she didn`t lie to the FBI. She didn`t send classified information.
HAYES: Seventeen months, he has said, people that broke the law --
DELGADO: It turns out she did send classified information.
HAYES: Wait. Wait a second. Let me ask you this. Let me ask you this. Do you honestly think --
DELGADO: How did 650,000 e-mails end up in Anthony Weiner`s laptop? Is she --
HAYES: Do you honestly think --
DELGADO: Is she criminal or she`s just stupid?
HAYES: Do you honestly --
DELGADO: Which is it?
HAYES: Do you honestly think --
DELGADO: She`s either corrupt or incredibly inept.
HAYES: Do you honestly --
DELGADO: I don`t know which is worse.
HAYES: But do you honestly think it doesn`t matter whether Melania Donald Trump broke immigration law or not?
DELGADO: To the American voter right now, did she? No. Would it matter if she did, three days out? We don`t even need to have that discussion.
HAYES: No. Would it matter or not?
DELGADO: We`re much more concerned --
HAYES: Just answer that question.
DELGADO: -- about the Clinton Foundation being under FBI investigation.
HAYES: Answer that question. Would it matter?
DELGADO: To the Bernie Sanders supporters watching, I understand completely why you`re staying home and I salute you --
HAYES: Look --
DELGADO: -- because I would not vote --
HAYES: Let me ask this question.
DELGADO: -- for that corrupt criminal if my life depended on it.
HAYES: Just --
DELGADO: So I understand that obviously you support --
HAYES: Obviously, you are not. But my question to you --
DELGADO: They`re on to you now, Chris.
HAYES: My question to you --
DELGADO: Good for them.
HAYES: My question to you is, would it matter if she broke the immigration law?
DELGADO: Would it matter to you if Hillary Clinton accepted bribes?
HAYES: Would it matter if Melania Trump broke the immigration laws?
DELGADO: Would it matter to you if Hillary Clinton accepted bribes?
HAYES: I get --
DELGADO: Because it looks like she did.
HAYES: It is my show, and I get to ask the question. Would it matter --
DELGADO: And I`m here as a guest. I get to ask questions too.
HAYES: All right. A.J. Delgado, it`s good to see you.
DELGADO: Love you, Chris.
HAYES: Thank you very much. Joining me now, Eric Boehlert, senior fellow at the pro-Clinton group, Media Matters for America. Well, what do you think, Eric?
ERIC BOEHLERT, SENIOR FELLOW, MEDIA MATTERS FOR AMERICA: I think it matters. I`ll answer the question. Yes, it matters. It`s a question of - -
HAYES: I don`t think it matters.
BOEHLERT: It`s a question of hypocrisy.
HAYES: I mean, I don`t think it matters.
BOEHLERT: No, I don`t think --
HAYES: My point is that it doesn`t matter. My point is that it doesn`t matter and it doesn`t matter for -- I honestly think that those kinds of gray area infractions that happen all time are not things that are along a spectrum of infraction that almost are a crime without a victim. That, yes, a lot of people have done that for all sorts of reasons, and a lot of the people who`ve done that have made America great.
BOEHLERT: The hypocrisy matters is my point. You can`t run around the country saying we got to get rid of this people, and then it turns out, your wife happens to fall into that umbrella. That`s my point.
HAYES: Where are you right now on the state of the race in the last week? When you look at what has happened in the post, sort of, Comey --
BOEHLERT: Right, right, right.
HAYES: -- era, this sort of idea which is interesting, their closing argument, which we didn`t even get to because we were talking about all that stuff, this sort of idea of change, about sort of knocking off the globalist elite --
BOEHLERT: Right, right, right.
DELGADO: Where am I going? Oh, take --
HAYES: Where do you think --
DELGADO: Take my mike off.
HAYES: Do we have -- yes. I`m sorry. I`m still getting mic. Where do you see the campaign, post-Comey?
BOEHLERT: Oh, well, in terms of the status, I think it`s very similar to post pneumonia, right? There was this big Friday, Saturday blow up when Hillary Clinton had the pneumonia bout. The polls went south for about five days. It was a major interruption. And I think we`ve seen that same thing.
You know, some of those early polls after this Comey shocker, after people like my barber told me the FBI had reopened this investigation, when that false information got out, I think it interrupted the race. I think we`re back to where the race was now. I think she clearly has the momentum, as you talked about, the early voting states in Nevada and Florida. Forty million votes are already cast and she`s ahead in those, so I think the race is almost where it was pre-Comey shocker.
HAYES: There also, seems to me, that part of the strategy right now in talking about -- it`s very interesting to hear, there`s clearly a few strategies here. One is, as you can tell from A.J., target disaffected Bernie folks --
BOEHLERT: Right, right, right.
HAYES: -- about the anti-war, trade message. Part of me thinks there`s a sort of geographical push there for the Midwest for that reason.
BOEHLERT: Right.
HAYES: But there`s also, it seems to me, some sort of notion of, look, we`re going to make it terrible if you elect her.
(LAUGHTER)
HAYES: No, I`m serious.
BOEHLERT: Yes, I know. I know.
HAYES: I honestly think it`s a very -- and not necessarily a stupid tactic.
BOEHLERT: Right.
HAYES: I mean, they had basically, all that`s said, they`ll be -- Trump himself said there`ll be a constitutional crisis.
BOEHLERT: Right, right, right.
HAYES: And basically the argument is, we`re going to make it a brutal slog if you elect this woman.
BOEHLERT: Right.
HAYES: So, maybe, don`t do it.
BOEHLERT: Right. Again, pre-Comey, we saw reports they were going to try to suppress the vote. They`re going to try and suppress the African- American vote. We saw this tonight, this sort of suppress the Bernie Sanders vote.
But now, I think with Comey and this fake impeachment -- you know, we`ve got Fox News manufacturing these stories that she`s going to be indicted that Bret Baier had to walk back -- they`re committed, I think, to this talking point.
And look, if they think they can bully 40, 50 million Democrats, and they were going to say, you know what, you`re right, take it. You know, we don`t want it. We don`t want the presidency, we don`t want the Congress, you`re going to make it awful, that`s their strategy.
I can`t imagine Democrats and a lot of Americans are going to sit there and say, huh, I think I`m going to sit home and just give it to them. I don`t think anyone has ever bullied --
HAYES: Yes.
BOEHLERT: -- the presidency away from another party before.
HAYES: It`s also interesting to me --
BOEHLERT: Or scared them away from voting.
HAYES: In some --
BOEHLERT: Because --
HAYES: Yes, please.
BOEHLERT: And I`m just saying, look at those lines today.
HAYES: Right.
BOEHLERT: I mean, people are waiting two, three, four hours. They don`t seem to be afraid that we`re going to head into a morass. We`ll deal with that when sort of the Republican radicals get back at us.
HAYES: It`s interesting to me when you think about, you know, Clinton during impeachment. Actually, Bill Clinton was quite popular.
BOEHLERT: He was.
HAYES: And I think Hillary Clinton`s probably -- her finest moment probably in this whole campaign was the eleventh -- her Benghazi testimony.
BOEHLERT: That`s right.
HAYES: So maybe, you know, that`s actually -- in some perverse political way, this is actually good.
BOEHLERT: Well, look at Barack Obama. He`s at his highest approval rating since 2009, 2010.
HAYES: Sure. Yes.
BOEHLERT: And they spent eight years trying to block everything he wanted to do.
HAYES: All right. Eric Boehlert, thanks for being with me tonight. Appreciate it.
BOEHLERT: Sure.
HAYES: All right. We have a lot more. I`m going to be here for two hours. Settle in, grab a cocktail, do what you`re doing -- it`s Saturday night -- as we look towards Tuesday night, the early voting numbers that don`t bode well for Donald Trump.
Plus, could Republicans lose control of the Senate, or will they retain it? It`s hanging by a finger nail. We`ll take a look at the latest polling.
And Hillary Clinton`s last minute push to get out the vote, but does it achieve more than an admittedly epic photo-op?
All that and more ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When Mexico sends its people, they`re not sending their best.
We have to keep the families together --
CHUCK TODD, MSNBC HOST: But you`re going to keep them together out?
TRUMP: -- but they have to go. But they have to go.
TODD: What if they have no place to go?
TRUMP: We will work with them. They have to go.
A lot of Hispanics -- Latinos, they like to be called -- in that area. You know that right? Hispanics and Latinos.
Sit down.
JORGE RAMOS, UNIVISION HOST: And immigrants (inaudible).
TRUMP: Go ahead.
RAMOS: I have the right to ask a question.
TRUMP: No, you don`t. You haven`t been called.
RAMOS: I have the right to ask a question.
TRUMP: Go back to Univision.
They bring in drugs. They bring in crime. They`re rapists.
We`re building a wall. He`s a Mexican. We`re building a wall between here and Mexico.
The answer is, he is giving us very unfair rulings.
We have some bad hombres here and we`re going to get them out.
And who`s going to pay for the wall?
CROWD: Mexico!
TRUMP: Who`s going to pay for the wall?
CROWD: Mexico!
TRUMP: Who`s going to pay for the wall?
CROWD: Mexico!
GOV. MIKE PENCE (R), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You whipped out that Mexican thing again.
TRUMP: And some, I assume, are good people.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Well, the groups Donald Trump has insulted and even threatened over the course of this campaign, Latinos, particularly Mexican-Americans, were the first and perhaps the most consistent of his targets. Lucky for Trump, in the past, Latinos have typically voted at lower rates than other demographic groups. 2012, for example, only 48 percent of eligible Latino voters turned out to vote, compared to 64 percent of White voters and 67 percent of African-American voters.
This year, however, there are signs that may be changing. In a number of key battleground states that have early voting, Latino turn out is up so far over past years. As of November 1st, according to an NBC News analysis, Latinos made up 13.77 percent of early voting in Florida, a must- win state for Trump. That`s up from just 9.89 percent four years ago. And it`s possible those voters draw from the same pool of people who usually vote on Election Day. In other words, they`re just voting early instead of actually adding to the electorate.
But here`s the thing. Early data suggests that`s not the case. According to political strategist Steve Schale, who`s the 2008 Obama campaign Florida State Director, on Thursday alone, 82.5 percent of Hispanic early voters were considered low-propensity voters. "That`s literally nuts," in his words. Those are people who may not have voted in the last couple of presidential elections, who may have been excluded from recent polls of likelihood for the voters.
Joining me now, Matt Barreto, co-founder of the research and polling firm, Latino Decisions, and professor at UCLA, who`s done polling on Latino voters for the Clinton campaign. Harry Enten, senior political writer and analyst for "FiveThirtyEight."
And, Matt, let me start with you. So two states where we`ve got lots of early votes, probably more than half the voting population before Election Day and big Latino populations. That is Nevada and Florida. It seems like we`re seeing similar trends in both those states when you compare what the numbers say in early votes versus what, say, a model or polling would predict about the composition of the electorate. Spell it out for us.
MATT BARRETO, CO-FOUNDER, LATINO DECISIONS: Yes, absolutely. You know, we`re seeing far greater early vote numbers than what most of the main stream models are predicting. Latinos in particular in Florida, but also in Nevada, are over performing what the models are indicating.
You read that tweet from Steve, but there`s also a data point that Dan Smith, a professor at the University of Florida, put out. Thirty percent of the Latinos who have voted in Florida were either new registrants or had no previous vote history. They`ve never voted before. So these are, in many cases, a lot of new people coming into the system voting at very high rates, higher rates than we saw in 2012.
And I think that the models aren`t taking account of that. They`re not seeing this vote that we`re seeing, the swell that we`re seeing on the ground, in both of those two competitive, very critical, as you said, for Trump, battleground states. The Latino vote is very, very strong right now.
HAYES: So one of the things here, Harry, is that with early voting, right, there`s lots of data, and there`s lots of ways you can screw the data up.
HARRY ENTEN, SENIOR POLITICAL WRITER AND ANALYST, FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: Right, correct. Sure.
HAYES: Because we don`t -- we know partisan affiliation, we know some demographic information.
ENTEN: Right.
HAYES: But what we don`t know -- although the campaigns know, at least the Clinton campaign --
ENTEN: Right.
HAYES: -- is the propensity of these voters, right? So what you want as a campaign is you want to take people who are low-propensity voters and get them to vote early.
ENTEN: Of course.
HAYES: As opposed to just moving a person who is definitely going to vote on Election Day up to wit. That doesn`t do you any good.
ENTEN: Right, exactly. A vote on Election Day is worth the same amount as a vote that`s cast early. As you`ve said, there seems to be a lot of these low-propensity voters who are voting early. But here`s the question for Hillary Clinton. Is it nearly that we`re getting more Latinos into the electorate while African-Americans are voting at lower rates? If that`s the case, that`s a bad tradeoff for her because African-Americans vote in higher numbers for Democrats. That`s a question we don`t know yet, and it would be interesting to see as we head forward in this election.
HAYES: Yes. And Steve Schale in Florida had sort of raised some alarm bells, although it looks like the percentage of the electorate that`s Black has come up a bit in the early voting.
ENTEN: Yes.
HAYES: One thing about Nevada is fascinating, right? So you`ve got Jon Ralston, like, camped out last night, right?
BARRETO: Right.
HAYES: It was sort of fascinating to see. He`s live tweeting the last day of early voting. He`s live tweeting the numbers in Nevada.
ENTEN: Right.
HAYES: And he`s at one location, which is a Mexican grocery store.
ENTEN: Cardenas, was it?
HAYES: Cardenas. That`s the scene right there. And he`s tweeting, being like, this is nuts. These people are -- they`re going to -- you know, if you`re in line, it`s going to stay open. They`re going to bank another thousand votes. He`s sort of, in real time, watching this happen.
ENTEN: Right.
HAYES: And Latino Decisions pointed out in the poll, in 2012, the final polling average in Nevada was Obama plus 2.8, in reality won by 6.7. That almost four points they missed was bad Latino polling. Do you think there`s a case that the public polling is not capturing Latinos effectively?
ENTEN: It could. I mean, Harry Reid, just go back to 2010, right? All the public polls, for the most part, had Harry Reid --
HAYES: He was toast.
ENTEN: -- was toast. And then he won easily over Sharron Angle. So there`s definitely a case. And if you look at Nevada, what makes it different than, say, the other states is we have a trend line going back through history where we know most voters vote early in that state. We know the partisan affiliation of those voters, and we know that that partisan affiliation tends to hold through Election Day.
Right now, Democrats have a six percentage point edge in the percentage of people who have voted. And if that holds through Election Day, it`s just very difficult for Donald Trump to win in that state.
HAYES: So, Matt, what is your sense from this? Again, there`s the early voting data then the polling, then there`s stuff in Arizona. And I think the Arizona story is fascinating because if you look at Arizona and you look at Georgia, I said this the other day, Georgia looks more competitive in the last few public polls published than Arizona does. And yet, no one`s going to Georgia.
And a lot of people have been going to Arizona. And I know for a fact the Clinton campaign has Arizona in its target list. They are working that state in a way they are not working Georgia. What do you think is the story there?
BARRETO: Yes, absolutely. First of all, it`s Cardenas, is the name of the grocery store.
HAYES: Ah.
ENTEN: Yes, yes.
BARRETO: You guys should brush up on your Spanish in cycle.
HAYES: Yes.
(LAUGHTER)
BARRETO: In Arizona, you know, don`t forget about Sheriff Joe. There`s a very hot re-election there --
HAYES: Right.
BARRETO: -- in Maricopa County. That`s bringing out a lot of Latinos. You wouldn`t believe the number of people who are going door to door, who are motivated to just vote this year not just in the presidential election but a local county sheriffs` election. And I think that`s going to be a big upset. You`re going to see a huge Latino vote there. That down-ticket race may actually have reverse coat tails and may bring out more voters to vote Joe Arpaio out of office.
So I think Arizona`s absolutely in play. We`re playing very hard there. There continues to be ad buys and on the ground. And I think you`re going to see a really, really large Latino vote in Arizona.
HAYES: One of the things -- that`s sort of a double-edged sword here, right, when you go back to statistics. I mean, people talk about Black turnout, and I think people fail to appreciate that African-Americans turn out more than anyone.
ENTEN: Right.
HAYES: I think Jewish-Americans actually may have the highest turnout when you go down every demographic subgroup.
ENTEN: Right.
HAYES: But African-Americans turn out at very high rates, particularly in the south. Particularly controlling for education and income --
ENTEN: Yes.
HAYES: -- they turn out very high rates. The sort of issue for Democrats about Latino votes, from a tactical perspective is, a lot of them are in states that aren`t competitive.
ENTEN: Right, right.
HAYES: So they don`t give you the same electoral bang for the buck.
ENTEN: Right.
HAYES: And they`re not turning out at the same rates. But the flip side of that is, if you got Latinos voting at what African-Americans do, that would be a massive change structurally for the Democratic Party.
ENTEN: It would be a huge change. You know, Texas, obviously, is not in play this cycle, but Democrats are expected to do better there in large part because Latinos are finally motivated to vote in that state.
BARRETO: Right.
ENTEN: Arizona is, I think, a key example of that. And Joe Arpaio is, at this point, favored to lose re-election.
HAYES: Right.
ENTEN: So that`s a perfect example where you could see that up-ticket voting. Very interesting effect there.
HAYES: Yes. All right. Matt Barreto, thanks for your time. Harry Enten, if you can stick around.
After the break, the Republican senator who`s closing argument features praise from none other than President Obama. We`ll talk about that crucial race and look at where the Democrats could gain control of the Senate.
But, first, my kids are here tonight, Brian and David. And if you`re a regular viewer of the show, you know what that means. It`s time to play the animal videos they have asked for. Tonight`s picks, butterflies and tigers or mariposas and tigres because we`re learning Spanish.
First up, the butterflies. Oddly relaxing as we`re coming into the home stretch here, covering 2016. Next up, tigers. Here are some playing together at our favorite zoo, the Bronx Zoo, not too far from here. Very cute, both of them. We`ll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HAYES: All right. Hillary Clinton is on stage in Philadelphia at a Katy Perry concert slash Hillary Clinton rally. Let`s take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So if you have some time and you want to really be involved in winning this election, sign up to help. Because when your kids and grandkids ask you what you did in 2016, when it was all on the line, I want you to be able to say, I voted for a better, fairer, stronger America where everybody has a chance at the American dream.
(APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: I am so excited about this election because I really think we`re going to send a message from coast to coast, east to west, north to south, about who we are as a country. And if we do what we should, then on November the 9th, this coming Wednesday, we can all wake up and say, I`m going to do my part to make sure that America lives up to its promise to every one of our people, especially every one of our children, who deserve the chance to live up to their God-given potential.
(APPLAUSE)
CLINTON: So tonight, tonight, it is a celebration for everything that you have already done to help us and all that we will do together, and I am thrilled to be able to introduce a performer whose music has a wonderful message.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Hillary Clinton tonight in Philadelphia. And in that state, this ad right now is currently running. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: In Washington, the rarest political quality is courage. On keeping guns away from criminals, listen to what President Obama says about Pat Toomey.
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We had a Democrat and a Republican come together and work together to write a common sense compromise on background checks. And I want to thank Joe Manchin and Pat Toomey for their courage in doing that. That was not easy.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Pat Toomey fights for us.
SEN. PAT TOOMEY (R), PENNSYLVANIA: I`m Pat Toomey and I approve this message.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Yes, that`s actually a Republican Senate ad spot, a news T.V. spot running for Pennsylvania senator, Pat Toomey, the incumbent, who is currently trailing Democratic challenger Katie McGinty by two points in the "Real Clear Politics" polling average.
It is notable Toomey has refused to say, will not answer, whether or not he will vote for Donald Trump. But his use of President Obama`s praise in that ad was not lost on the Vice President today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOE BIDEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: That Republican Senator starts running positive ads now with Barack Obama with him? Oh, man, go figure, as my brother would say.
(LAUGHTER)
BIDEN: Isn`t that amazing, Bobby? He`s out there. He doesn`t know if he`s for Trump but he knows he`s now for Barack Obama. How things change. Isn`t it amazing?
(APPLAUSE)
BIDEN: You ask yourself, why not get the real deal with Katie McGinty?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: After control of the Oval Office is up, the next biggest focus Tuesday night would be what happen in several close Senate races, like Pennsylvania, which will determine who controls the Senate.
Right now, it is basically a coin flip. Poll forecasters, "FiveThirtyEight" and "The Upshot," each give Democrats a slight edge in retaking the Senate, 52 percent and 54 percent respectively.
Back with me is Harry Enten, senior political writer and analyst for "FiveThirtyEight."
Here`s what I think has been interesting. There`s a bunch of different races.
ENTEN: Sure.
HAYES: And of all the polls I have been following and following the dynamics of the different races, they really haven`t moved --
ENTEN: Yes.
HAYES: -- in tandem in the way you would in the era of partisan polarization we have. When you would expect when, you know, Trump cresting, they do well. Trump falling, they do poorly. There`s a little bit happening really moving in different directions.
ENTEN: And Pennsylvania is a perfect example of that, right? You`ve seen Katie McGinty in the past two weeks open up a lead. I think there`s been one poll in the past two weeks that has Pat Toomey ahead. And there`d been a ton of polls conducted there. Versus, if you look at a state, say like Indiana, we`ve seen Evan Bayh`s chances dip. If you look at a state like New Hampshire, we`ve seen Maggie Hassan`s chances dip a little bit. So it`s been a very bizarre thing where it almost seems like voters are actually voting for candidates instead of their parties.
Isn`t that a wonderful thing?
HAYES: Well, I think -- well, I don`t know.
ENTEN: Or maybe not.
HAYES: Yes. I mean, I think it goes both ways. I actually think parties are pretty useful proxy.
ENTEN: Sure.
HAYES: And as -- for voters. But I do think it has been fairly candidate- dependent in Indiana. I mean, Evan Bayh has a sort of specific thing --
ENTEN: Problem.
HAYES: -- because sort of he`s a revolving door --
ENTEN: Right.
HAYES: -- as a senator and he went and he worked in D.C. and he`s getting hammered for that. In Nevada, again, that`s a race where, when you look at the math, when you look at public polling, you think Joe Heck, who is the Republican running for that open seat -- it`s Harry`s seat -- he looks like he`s ahead. When you look at the precedence, what Harry Reid is able to do --
ENTEN: Right.
HAYES: -- what the Democrats in that seat are able to do, what the unions are able to do, in terms of turnout, you`d think that maybe that can get Cortez Masto, who`s the sort of hand-picked Harry Reid successor over the hutch.
ENTEN: Sure. Remember, four years ago, Dean Heller who was the incumbent at that time, the Republican incumbent, was barely able to win, but vastly under estimated the polls. So it`s quite possible that Hillary Clinton wins, say, by four or five, and Cortez Masto barely sneaks five by one. And the polling average is so close at this point, it wouldn`t take a large polling error for her to win.
HAYES: And Nevada was an interesting state back in 2012 because Heller was the only Republican Senate candidate who outperformed Mitt Romney.
ENTEN: Right.
HAYES: And he just narrowly got over, even though he looked like a much more comfortable lead heading into that race.
ENTEN: Exactly, exactly.
HAYES: You`ve also got -- so I think the Missouri race is the most interesting.
ENTEN: I love that race.
HAYES: Because Missouri, kind of like Indiana, it`s not really on the map in the presidential, right?
ENTEN: Sure.
HAYES: It`s not really going to be a contested state, so there`s not a ton of presidential infrastructure there to turn folks out.
ENTEN: Right.
HAYES: Roy Blunt, I think, at the beginning of this cycle, who is the incumbent Republican, people didn`t really think he`d be challenged. You`ve got this State Senator, Jason Kander. He`s --
ENTEN: Secretary of State.
HAYES: The Secretary of State, Jason Kander, who is -- he`s a veteran. He`s got the best ad out of the cycle, probably, where he puts together a gun blindfolded.
ENTEN: Right.
HAYES: And he is giving Blunt an absolute run for his money.
ENTEN: An absolute run for his money. If you speak with Democrats and Republicans in that state, they`d tell you that that race is too close to call. The public polling suggests Blunt might be the smallest of favorites, but it`s really a race that could be too close to call.
And I`d also point out that the gubernatorial races in both Indiana and Missouri are very, very tight at this time. So it wouldn`t be shocking if you get two Democrats winning in the governor`s race and the Senate race even if Trump carries in the presidential.
HAYES: That`s very interesting. Although we should also say that they will not have the benefit, Kander won`t have the benefit in Missouri, of a full-fledged flooding of Democrats through the Clinton GOTV operation.
ENTEN: Sure.
HAYES: That, say, someone like Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania will have.
ENTEN: Right.
HAYES: All right. Harry Enten, thank you very much.
ENTEN: Thank you.
HAYES: Joining me now, Stephanie Schriock. She`s the president of EMILY`s List, Democratic organization supporting candidates advocating abortion rights and women`s equality.
Where are you, guys? What are the key races for you, guys? I would imagine Katie McGinty.
STEPHANIE SCHRIOCK, PRESIDENT, EMILY`S LIST: Yes.
HAYES: Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire. Cortez Masto in Nevada.
SCHRIOCK: Yes. I mean, EMILY`s List is supporting nine Senate candidates this year, eight would be new voices. But we`re at the end, where is the main focus? I mean, we always talk about these tight races. Can I just -- huge shout out to Tammy Duckworth, by the way.
HAYES: Yes.
SCHRIOCK: Who is in a double digit lead in Illinois.
HAYES: Yes.
SCHRIOCK: We always forget about Tammy Duckworth --
HAYES: Fair enough point. Let me --
SCHRIOCK: -- but she`s rocking it.
HAYES: Right. I should make the point that Tammy Duckworth, of course, who is both a veteran.
SCHRIOCK: Yes.
HAYES: She served in the Department of Veterans` Affairs. She`s now a congresswoman. She is running against incumbent Mark Kirk.
SCHRIOCK: Right. Purple Heart recipient.
HAYES: Right.
SCHRIOCK: New mom.
HAYES: She is almost certainly going to win.
SCHRIOCK: Yes.
HAYES: And the reason that I bring her up is because that`s probably the least contested Senate race that`s a contested one in the country, right?
SCHRIOCK: Yes. And it`s a pickup.
HAYES: Right. That`s right, yes.
SCHRIOCK: Yes, it`s a pickup for Democrats.
HAYES: Yes, yes.
SCHRIOCK: So it`s an important one, but it is fine. We all sort of leave that one to that corner.
HAYES: That`s true. Right.
SCHRIOCK: We just want to give her vision a big shout out because she`s done so incredibly well.
HAYES: Right, right.
SCHRIOCK: But you look at the races that are going to determine the Democratic majority in the Senate, and it`s really our EMILY`S List candidates who are smack in the middle. Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, must-win, hold seat but a must-win seat. You got Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire against Kelly Ayotte. You`ve got Katie McGinty, as you were just talking about, against Pat Toomey.
And then also, as you`ve talked about, Jason Kander. Sort of the other Jason Kander surprise race is Deborah Ross in North Carolina.
HAYES: That race is fascinating to me too.
SCHRIOCK: Yes.
HAYES: And here`s the reason. You know, Kander`s running this classic sort of up and coming fresh face versus the old creature of Washington campaign. That`s his campaign. Roy Blunt is this creature at Washington, I`m new, I hear you. Right? That`s not really what`s going on in that North Carolina race. Tell me about who Deborah Ross is because I find her resume fascinating particularly given that state, and she`s as competitive as she is.
SCHRIOCK: So, I mean, she has really been a champion, you know, for consumerism, for civil liberties, and women and families. She`s served in the state legislature. So some folks sort of forget that piece of it.
HAYES: Right.
SCHRIOCK: That`s she`s actually served in public office. But she`s --
HAYES: But she was a public interest lawyer, basically.
SCHRIOCK: Absolutely. Yes.
HAYES: I mean --
SCHRIOCK: Absolutely. And I think that`s really resonating when you`re up against Richard Burr, who`s somebody who has really sort of walked away from North Carolina, is tied to all this special interests.
HAYES: Right.
SCHRIOCK: Who, by the way, has had a terrible week after he suggested violence against Hillary Clinton. So he`s not having --
HAYES: He apologized for it and said it was a joke, just to be clear.
SCHRIOCK: Right. He did.
HAYES: Yes.
SCHRIOCK: He did. But enough of this kind of jokes.
HAYES: He also said --
SCHRIOCK: This is not something to joke about.
HAYES: Well, and he also said -- and I thought this was actually one of the most important pieces of news of the week -- that he would try to keep Scalia`s seat open for four years.
SCHRIOCK: Yes.
HAYES: Were he return to the Senate. That`s an incredible thing.
SCHRIOCK: And this is a huge thing at the end in a couple of this other races. I mean, I know we`ve got a long way to go in Iowa and Arizona. Though, Arizona, with the early vote numbers, you`re just talking about the Latino turnout. I get it, but she`s -- our Ann Kirkpatrick, who`s the Congresswoman running against John McCain, has put together an extraordinary campaign.
HAYES: Yes.
SCHRIOCK: But John McCain came out and said, if it`s Hillary Clinton who`s president, we`re not going to do it in the court. Chuck Grassley in Iowa has been saying it`s all about not putting anybody in there. These Republicans continue to just be obstructionists. And that`s a problem.
HAYES: Do you think that moves voters?
SCHRIOCK: I do.
HAYES: Do you think it moves Democratic voters?
SCHRIOCK: I think it also moves independent women. I think women voters are very, very frustrated with the non-action, and what is happening is not gridlock in Congress. It is Republicans causing gridlock.
HAYES: Yes.
SCHRIOCK: And they want to hold this Republicans accountable.
HAYES: Because they say --
SCHRIOCK: What Kelly Ayotte or Pat Toomey`s old gang.
HAYES: The reason they`re saying those things is they think it motivates their people. And in fact, they`ve sort of boot strapped the whole rationale for the Trump presidency out of holding the seat open. And sometimes I think there`s an asymmetry in how much it moves different parties.
Stephanie Schriock, thank you very much.
SCHRIOCK: You bet.
HAYES: All right. Still to come, the Clinton campaign grabbing big names in a series of get out the votes concert. As we watched, Katy Perry on stage. That`s not Katy Perry. That`s Bon Jovi. Then that`s Katy Perry. I know the difference between Jon Bon Jovi and Katy Perry. I`m not Will Ferrell in "Anchorman." I don`t just read what`s in front of me in the prompter.
More on this latest formula for using these events to boost voter turnout. And the woman who ran that effort for President Obama in 2008 joins me next. But let`s listen to Bon Jovi, not Katy Perry which is written in prompter as we go to break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HAYES: Right now, Hillary Clinton`s concert tour continues as you can see, a free Katy Perry show in Philadelphia.
Last night, the Democratic presidential nominee was on stage with Beyonce and her husband, Jay-Z. It`s all part of the Love Trumps Hate concert series in battleground states, which is Pennsylvania, Ohio, and North Carolina. It also includes artists like Stevie Wonder, Jennifer Lopez, and Jon Bon Jovi.
As "Politico" points out, these concerts are part of an under the radar tactic that Clinton`s Brooklyn team believes is a powerful organizing tool that`s already yielding results for the campaigns get out to vote efforts, especially in the critical counties and among the demographic groups Clinton needs most.
Joining me now, Teal Baker, who`s integral in organizing these types of events as the director of surrogates of the Obama campaign in 2008. She`s now running for local office in her neighborhood.
And, Teal, people go to the campaign, at the concerts, and they think, like, oh, well, that`s fun. I guess you get a lot of people to come. But there`s a pretty intense organizing strategy underneath these concerts. Explain what it is.
TEAL BAKER, OBAMA`S 2008 NATIONAL DIRECTOR OF SURROGATES: There absolutely is. Thank you for having me. So the value of surrogates is that they can talk to voters in a different voice with a different message and really drive home what`s at stake in the election and why their vote matters.
And the organizing value comes out in three ways. The first is, you know, organizing directly. So in states with early vote locations, you know, it was no coincidence for the Cleveland concert yesterday that, you know, they gave out free tickets. You had to pick it up in person, and oh, by the way, it`s across the street from the early voting location. So, you know, it would be great if you went across the street and got your vote in.
And as mobilization tools. So in places where there aren`t early vote opportunities, everyone who gets a free ticket has to share their name and contact information with the campaign. So when you look at mobilizing on Election Day, you have maybe a different group of voters than you had before you started to really energize and make sure they show up on Tuesday.
HAYES: Oh, so that`s interesting. I hadn`t thought of that, right. So you guys in field operations in swing states are quite sophisticated and developed.
But the idea is that a concert like this, if you use, say, Katy Perry in Philadelphia, right, which is a crucial place for Democrats to turn out votes to win the state of Pennsylvania, the thinking is, there`s going to be some people that show up, some percentage, that are people that you haven`t had a lot of voter contact with, or maybe aren`t are in the database, or you don`t have a good record of touches with, as organizers say, that come to you and that you can then go back to, two days later, to try to get them out.
BAKER: That`s exactly right. So, you know, a lot of these voters, for good reason this year especially, have tuned out this election and may not be following the ins and outs of either campaign, but, you know, they follow Katy Perry on Instagram. And so, you know, she`s promoting her presence in Philadelphia and how important it is to vote and why she`s with Hillary Clinton. And so, again, it`s just another channel to reach voters who may not be your traditional targets.
HAYES: This is something, it seems to me, that if -- one of the sort of most fascinating stories in politics, I think, over the last eight years is the increasing sophistication and refinement of the Democratic Party`s operatives in turning voters out. It just seems to me that each cycle from `08 to `12 to `16 are sort of built on it. There`s a lot of institutional knowledge that`s accrued. Is that a fair thing to say?
BAKER: That`s absolutely right. So, especially, you know, around these concerts, there`s an opportunity to, you know -- these venues are very large. Obviously, kind of having VIP access and being up front and in the first couple of rows is a very special thing for fans especially. And so the campaign has figured out that we can ask people to pick up a walk packet and canvass a neighborhood --
HAYES: Right.
BAKER: -- and be involved in the campaign in a new and different way, maybe for the first time. And in exchange, you know, they`ll get a ticket for the, you know, front couple rows of a concert that`s really important to them.
HAYES: Fascinating. All right. Teal Baker, thanks for joining me. Really appreciate it.
BAKER: Thank you.
HAYES: When we come back, why "The National Enquirer" would buy the rights to a story about an alleged affair between Donald Trump and a playboy model, only to never publish it. That`s story after this break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MELANIA TRUMP, DONALD TRUMP`S WIFE: Donald is a wonderful husband, father, and grandfather. He`s strong. He`s determined, bold, and decisive. He`s also compassionate, thoughtful, giving, and loving. Donald cares --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Melania Trump speaking on behalf of her husband there in North Carolina today. She`s been in the news a bit. We`ll get to that in a second.
Joining me now, Joy Reid, host of the one and only, "AM JOY." Sam Seder hosts "THE MAJORITY REPORT," an MSNBC contributor. And Matt Mackowiak, who`s a Republican strategist down in the great city of Texas.
Well, the "National Enquirer" story. Basically, a woman alleged having an affair with Donald Trump in 2006, and "National Enquirer`s" like, oh, totally, sell us that story, which is how it works in the tabloid world. They bought the story and then killed it.
JOY REID, MSNBC NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes.
HAYES: Which I guess is called catch and kill.
REID: Yes.
HAYES: Which is like a thing, I didn`t -- I learned this in tabloid world. The "Wall Street Journal" then reports it because I think she went to them, basically. The "Enquirer," of course, is very tied to Donald Trump, part of.
I got to say, what cracked me up was, like, of all the things, like, that Donald Trump has done and said --
REID: Yes.
HAYES: -- the 12 women on the record accusing him of unwanted sexual contact, the grab them by the whatever, you know --
REID: Yes.
HAYES: -- they probably can run the story and it would have been fine.
REID: At least it`s consensual.
(LAUGHTER)
HAYES: Exactly, at least it was consensual.
REID: And, you know, Donald Trump does have a habit of trading in the missus every few years. He traded in, you know, Ivana for Marla Maples, and he traded Marla Maples for the current model.
HAYES: Right.
REID: And it`s not shocking that, 10 years ago, which is around the time she was pregnant and not long after he made the "grab her by the" video, it was in `06 supposedly this affair, I guess, took place, that he was off to the races again.
And the thing that`s sort of so sad is that we`ve gotten to a point in our culture where it`s not even shocking anymore. This is a garden variety sort of minor scandal for a presidential candidate.
HAYES: Well, I mean, this is also a man who`s philandering. He boasted about it and everyone has known.
REID: Yes.
HAYES: And it`s -- I mean, like, you know, that is something that is baked into.
SAM SEDER, MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR: Right. I mean, on the list of things about Donald Trump, I mean, frankly, the philandering is so far down --
HAYES: It`s conscionable.
(CROSSTALK)
HAYES: I mean, literally, I was just like, well, that`s a messed up thing to do to your wife and family, dude.
SEDER: Right. But that`s OK.
HAYES: But both parties were at least consenting.
REID: Yes.
HAYES: Thank God.
SEDER: Right. And to a certain extent, like, that`s his business.
HAYES: Right.
SEDER: I mean, there are so many other aspects of Donald Trump --
HAYES: OK.
SEDER: -- that are far more important than that, that it would be disqualifying if the bar hadn`t been -- well, I wouldn`t even say lowered, it`s gone.
HAYES: Yes. Like, here`s the thing, Matt, this is, I think, one of the most amazing things that`s happened in this campaign. The "Access Hollywood" tape comes out and people`s initial reaction, I think, is the appropriate reaction. They`re aghast, they are horrified. That`s a terrible thing to boast about doing.
A cavalcade of Republicans come forward to say, I`m out, I can`t defend the guy. I mean, sorrowed, furrowed brow, moist eyes, Jason Chaffetz, I can`t look my daughter in the face. This is just --
MATT MACKOWIAK, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Right.
HAYES: And, let`s be clear, after that, 12 women come forward basically accusing him of precisely the behavior that he said he did. And all those people, a bunch of them, after saying, I can`t, my soul, my soul is so destroyed by this, are like I`m totally voting for the guy. I mean, it is one of the most craven things I`ve ever seen, I got to say it.
MACKOWIAK: Yes. And it`s reflected in this bizarre contortion that so many Republicans are in where they don`t want to anger Trump`s voters, but they`re not really for him. They may vote for him, but they don`t want to endorse him. It`s just everyone`s in their own place. It`s kind of every man for himself. And that`s true for House candidates, it`s true for Senate candidates.
HAYES: But here`s my thing. It`s like, look, if you`re going to say, I don`t care about the guy`s moral character. I don`t care if he touched women against their consent because I`m that much of a believer of the Republican Party controlling the wheels of government. Fine, that`s a principled argument. I mean, you can make that. But spare me, spare me the soliloquys --
MACKOWIAK: Yes.
HAYES: -- about how offensive to you, how just anguished you are, give me a break. Like, if you`re going to support the guy, support the guy.
REID: Yes, yes.
HAYES: Do your thing.
SEDER: I think all of these Republican electives found out who they`re voters are. I mean, that`s basically what happened. They assumed that this would be disqualifying with their voters. And when they found out that it wasn`t, I mean, look, this has been the story since day one.
HAYES: Of this campaign.
SEDER: It`s not about Donald Trump, no.
HAYES: It`s about the voters supporting him, right.
SEDER: That`s my point, is it transcends this campaign.
HAYES: Right.
SEDER: These voters are not going anywhere.
REID: Right.
MACKOWIAK: Yes.
SEDER: They were the same voters who were here four years ago. They`re not going --
HAYES: Right. They`re not moving out of your district --
SEDER: Yes.
REID: Let me add to this.
HAYES: -- if you`re in Congress, and they`re not moving your state if you`re a Senator.
REID: And I don`t think it`s just not who the voters are. We found out who these politicians are, these men are. And we found out that their own moral character`s questionable. Everyone is going to have to answer the question, where did you stand when this person ran for president, saying I wasn`t really for him but I voted for him? Well, cut it. You were for him, Marco Rubio. For him, Paul Ryan. For him, for your --
HAYES: Well, that`s my question. Maybe they were --
REID: For him.
HAYES: Wait. They`re going to have to -- but, Matt, so Joy says that. And I think, at some level, that`s true, right?
REID: Mm-hmm.
HAYES: In a historical sense, OK? When they write the history books.
MACKOWIAK: Right.
REID: History books, for him.
HAYES: When they write the history books. But in terms of the parry and thrust day to day of Republican Party politics --
MACKOWIAK: Yes.
HAYES: -- do you think they`re going to have to answer that question? I think it`s just going to be, like, either two things are going to happen.
Donald Trump is going to win, in which case it`s going to, like, thank God. Like, Jason Chaffetz is going to be like, thank God I came back to Donald Trump. Or he is going to lose and people are just going to be, like, take out the men in black thing, and we`re all just -- everyone is going to be, like, that never happened. That was a fluke. He was a celebrity. That was totally weird. Let`s get back to it.
MACKOWIAK: Yes. Look, at 8:00 a.m. on Wednesday morning, if Trump loses, the Republican Party is going to drop Donald Trump like third period French. It`s going to happen immediately. And they`re going to try to move beyond that. And the Trump base will --
HAYES: And they`re going to try (ph).
MACKOWIAK: The Trump base will still be there. There`ll be maybe a third or 40 percent of the Republican primary electorate, and we`ll have to see what Trump decides to do at that point. Does he start a network? Does he start a movement? Does he do something like that? What happens --
HAYES: Right. But --
MACKOWIAK: -- to his base?
HAYES: Right. And --
MACKOWIAK: And where do they go?
SEDER: Right.
HAYES: Well, the big question, right? The big fight? Well, they`ll first fight on this, right? So this question about, like, everyone`s going to have to answer where they were, in the world of internal Republican politics, the first fight on that if Trump were to lose -- and even if he wins, frankly -- is that Ryan speaker?
REID: That`s right.
MACKOWIAK: That`s right. In this, yes.
HAYES: That`s the first question. That will be the next actual --
REID: And the Trumpers will -- we`ll see if they`re going to demand to pick the speaker. They`re already spoiling to do that. They already think that they want --
HAYES: Oh, my God, they want to --
REID: And you know who --
HAYES: They want to destroy him.
REID: And Jason Chaffetz now probably believes that he can walk up there and get --
HAYES: Right, if he came. He came back.
REID: -- the speakership.
HAYES: And you got Paul Ryan writing an op-ed today --
MACKOWIAK: Yes.
HAYES: -- after saying he wouldn`t defend him, which seems to me like, hey, dude, if you pull this out, like, we are cool, right?
SEDER: Oh, well, I think to a certain extent, he writes that because he knows that Trump is not going to win. I mean, I think this seems --
HAYES: Oh, that`s covering his bases with his voters.
SEDER: Yes, exactly.
HAYES: Wait. Well, Matt, quickly, do you think that`s true?
MACKOWIAK: Well, look, I mean, the vote within the house on the Republican side is November 15th. It`s exactly one week after the election. The speaker vote in the house, which would be a bigger threat to Ryan is January 3rd.
HAYES: Right.
MACKOWIAK: Ryan is going to win the conference vote by a large margin on November 15th.
HAYES: Right.
MACKOWIAK: I believe he`ll win the speaker vote as well, but, boy, you know, this is uncertain. We have to see where it goes from here.
HAYES: All right. All right. Joy Reid, Sam Seder, Matt Mackowiak, thank you for joining on this lovely Saturday night.
SEDER: Thank you.
REID: You`re welcome.
HAYES: Our special pre-election edition of ALL IN continues with a bonus second hour. Yes, you heard that right. It starts right after this break. We have much more to come. Don`t go anywhere.
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