Show: ALL IN with CHRIS HAYES Date: October 21, 2016 Guest: Michael Burgess, Harry Enten, Catherine Rampell, Jamil Smith, Harry Enten
ANNOUNCER: Tonight on All IN .
DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I didn`t need to do this, believe me. This is work.
ANNOUNCER: Donald Trump stares down defeat.
TRUMP: Win, lose or draw, I will be happy with myself.
ANNOUNCER: Following defeat stumbles, sliding in the polls and a light- hearted dinner turning the ugly.
TRUMP: That`s OK. I don`t know who they`re angry at, Hillary, you or I.
ANNOUNCER: Why Trump`s last campaign filing shows even bigger problems. Plus .
TRUMP: We`ve got the best people.
ANNOUNCER: Bombshell testimony in the Bridgegate Trial. What Christie knew before the lane closures began?
CHRIS CHRISTIE, GOVERNOR OF NEW JERSEY: I had no knowledge or involvement in this issue, in its planning or its execution.
ANNOUNCER: Then, are there hidden Trump supporters?
KELLYANE CONWAY: I`ve been talking about it for months, the undercover Trump voters.
ANNOUNCER: Why others argue Trump is overperforming in the polls. And a look at the campaign`s closing arguments.
HILLARY CLINTON, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: But we know in our country the difference between leadership and dictatorship, right?
ANNOUNCER: ALL IN starts right now.
CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC ALL IN ANCHOR: Good evening from New York. I`m Chris Hayes. After the most humiliating 48 hours of his campaign, it appears Donald Trump is actually starting to reconcile himself to the likely outcome on November 8th. At a rally today in North Carolina, the republican nominee almost sounded wistful as he talked about continuing to campaign for the next 18 days, vowing to leave it all on the field.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: I don`t know what kind of shape I`m in, but I`ll be happy and at least I will have known, win, lose or draw, and I`m almost sure if the people come out, we`re going to win, that I will be - I will be happy with myself, as I always said. I don`t want to think back, if only I did one more rally, I would have won North Carolina by 500 votes instead of losing it by 200 votes, right? Normally, I`d be, so I never want to ever look back, I never want to say that about myself.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: For the record, Trump is now an average of 2.5 points behind Clinton in North Carolina, a state Mitt Romney won four years ago. Clinton has led every single poll there for the past month, about 13 in all. And Trump`s new perspective on the race follows back-to-back humiliations. First, his performance in the final debate on Wednesday drawing bipartisan condemnation for refusing to commit to abiding by the result of the election, a foundational principle of American democracy. And second, what has to have been one of the most excruciating experiences of his life. Absolutely bombing at last night`s Al Smith Dinner, and annual benefit for Catholic Charities. Practically getting booed off the stage by an audience of clergy members, Manhattan socialites and elected officials from New York, Trump`s home state. Something of a tradition for presidential candidates, the dinner provides an opportunity to poke fun at themselves and their rivals while showing off a sense of humor. But Trump included too many nasty barbs unleavened by humor and the audience just wasn`t having it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: We`ve learned so much from WikiLeaks. For example, Hillary believes that it`s vital to deceive the people by having one public policy and a totally different policy in private. That`s OK. I don`t know who they`re angry at, Hillary, you or I. For example, here she is tonight in public pretending not to hate catholics.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Clinton, on the other hand, struck the light-hearted tone expected at the Al Smith Dinner, if canned in places, still landing a few sharp blows on her opponent.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: People look at the Statue of Liberty and they see a proud symbol of our history as a nation of immigrants, a beacon of hope for people around the world. Donald looks at the Statue of Liberty, and sees a four. Maybe a five if she loses the torch and tablet and changes her hair.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Look at some of these morning`s headlines of the event, just brutal reviews of Trump`s performance. Trump was greeted with even more bad news today. Two new polls showing Hillary Clinton was the decisive winner of Wednesday night`s third and final debate. At this point, it`s pretty much across the board in every single scientific poll taken after each the three presidential debates, voters said Clinton won the night, every single one. Nevertheless, Trump tweeted earlier today, quote, "The results are in on the final debate and it`s almost unanimous, I won. Thank you. These are very exciting times."
The response from the Clinton campaign, "Where was this kind of comedy last night?" Even before Trump`s debacle of the past couple of days, so many of the structural forces in the race were already aligned against him. Heading into the home stretch, his campaign has been trying to play catch- up, investing more in TV ads than voter targeting. According to his latest filing, the Trump campaign spent much more than it raised in September. Finishing the month with just $34.8 million cash on hand, that`s significantly less than the Clinton campaign had on hand at the end of the month. And just over half what Mitt Romney had at the same point in 2012. According to the Washington Post, analysis of both campaign`s filing, Trump had just 168 paid campaign staff by the end of September compared to almost five times that much, 815 paid staff on the Clinton campaign. Today that number is even smaller. Trump just lost his national political director, long-time GOP operative Jim Murphy who told POLITICO he hasn`t resigned, but for personal reasons has had to step back from the campaign three weeks before Election Day.
I`m joined now by Congressman Michael Burgess, republican from Texas and a Trump supporter. And congressman, I`d like to get your response to something that one of your colleagues in the house delegation of Texas had to say about Trump`s "nasty woman" line in the debate, which some people found rankled. This is Congressman Brian Babin speaking about that moment. Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ALAN COLMES, FOX NEWS THE ALAN COLMES SHOW HOST: He called her a nasty woman.
BRIAN BABIN, UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE OF TEXAS: Oh, well -
COLMES: Is that appropriate?
BABIN: You know what, she`s saying some nasty things.
COLMES: Do you think it`s appropriate to call her a nasty woman?
BABIN: Well, I`m a genteel southerner, Alan.
COLMES: So that means no?
BABIN: No, I think - I think sometimes a lady needs to be told when she`s being nasty.
COLMES: Oh, really?
BABIN: I do.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HAYES: Congressman, do you agree that sometimes a woman needs to be told when she`s being nasty?
MICHAEL BURGESS, REPUBLICAN CONGRESSMAN OF TEXAS: You know what, that`s the first time I`ve heard that. I really don`t have a comment on that discussion.
HAYES: Do you think nasty woman was an appropriate term?
BURGESS: Look, this has been a tough campaign. And some tough things have been said on both sides, but that`s the way it is. I mean, this is a - this is abig job that requires someone being all in, as they say. You know what I mean?
HAYES: I do. Well done. But do you think it was an appropriate term?
BURGESS: It`s not some - a term I would have used.
HAYES: OK. Let me ask you this, what do you make of all this rigged election talk?
BURGESS: Look, here`s what I do know, Chris. 70, 75 percent of the country says we`re going in the wrong direction.
HAYES: Uh-hmm.
BURGESS: This is a changed election. I mean, you can - you can - you can layer it on all you want about how great Hillary`s doing and how badly Donald is doing, but this is the reason why we`re actually going to have the election.
HAYES: Right.
BURGESS: People I talk to, pretty disturbed about the direction of things. We`ve got a $20 trillion debt, and, you know, did you hear the news? $580 billion deficit for the last fiscal year. That`s on top of some of the largest tax collections that have ever happened. And what did we get for that money? Where are the new schools, where are the new roads, people are asking themselves these questions. We`re in tough shape in this country.
HAYES: Yeah. Congressman, do you think -- Congressman, do you think -
BURGESS: We`ve had one percent growth - one percent growth for the last 18 months.
HAYES: Right.
BURGESS: That`s no way to - that`s not a jobs program.
HAYES: Congressman, it`s interesting you talk about the debt, right? Because Donald Trump hasn`t been particularly concerned about the debt, and the independent scoring of his program shows that it would increase debt by far, far more, 160 percent, I believe, is the correct figure than Hillary Clinton`s. He`s got massive tax cuts, which are three times the size of George Bush. Today he`s in Pennsylvania talking about on top of that, also a big infrastructure program, doesn`t want to cut Medicare or Social Security, also wants to increase money for the military. If there`s one thing Donald Trump doesn`t seem to care about, it`s debt and deficits.
BURGESS: Well, I disagree. I mean, I think he has spoken about that and spoken consistently.
HAYES: Right. But the numbers don`t add up.
BURGESS: Well, look, here`s the - here`s the other happy part of this equation, whether it`s Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton in the White House, all of these proposals that you just ran through will, will come through the United States congress. Tax policy will originate in the House of Representatives.
HAYES: Sure.
BURGESS: All of the spending will come through both the house and the senate. It doesn`t just happen at the White House.
HAYES: But you just said before, which I think is key, right? That your sense is that it`s a change election because people are worried about the deficit, and that`s why people -
BURGESS: People are worried -- people are worried --
(CROSSTALK)
HAYES: That`s why people are going to vote for Donald Trump.
BURGESS: People are worried up and down about -- they`re certainly concerned about the status of national security.
HAYES: Yeah.
BURGESS: Certainly concerned about the fact that we have not secured our southern border and --
HAYES: If they`re so worried about change - let me ask you this. If they`re so worried about change in the red state of Texas, how is it the case that the latest poll out of the University of Houston has Trump up by just three points in your home state, a deep, deep red state where republicans dominate every level of government and a democrat hasn`t won state-wide since Ann Richards.
BURGESS: Chris, that`s a Houston poll. I mean, there are things that come out of Houston oftentimes baffle me.
(CROSSTALK)
HAYES: Well, it`s a University of Houston poll. There`s a bunch of poll that show within the margin of error.
BURGESS: Trump`s going to win Texas, and he`s going to win Texas big. So, just mark that down and we`ll visit about it after the election.
HAYES: Do you think that he`ll win it by more than Mitt Romney?
BURGESS: I think they`re - I think it`ll be a similar amount.
HAYES: Well, we`ll have - we`ll have you back after the election to see where we end up on that. Congressman Michael Burgess, I appreciate your time tonight.
BURGESS: Great. Thank you.
HAYES: Thank you. Joining me now, MSNBC contributor Sam Seder, host of The Majority Report podcast. Sam, I thought the - you know, there`s a sort of - there`s two ways this could go, as we head into these final days, first of all, nothing`s over, anything can happen, things can change, polls can be wrong, people cannot turn out, et cetera. But Donald Trump can sort of lash out increasingly or we could see him shrink over the next few weeks. And I saw him at the event today, and then Jenna Johnson write-up in The Washington Post made me think, "Well, maybe we`ll just see more of the latter."
SAM SEDER, MSNBC CONTRIBUTOR AND HOST OF THE MAJORITY REPORT: Yeah, I mean, that was - that was very whimsical. I mean, that`s the type of thing that I think you would anticipate him saying in a therapy session if he had one. I mean, my sense was that during the debate, when he announced that he was going to keep everybody in suspense as to whether or not he was going to acknowledge the results of the election, was he`s building a narrative. And that means, I mean, to me, that regardless of how he spends the next 18 days, on the 19th day, he`s going to continue what he`s doing. And I don`t think he`s going to stop. I mean, there`s this sort of great sense that once the election is over, Donald Trump goes away. I don`t think he stops. I think his schedule maybe gets a little bit lighter, but there`s no reason to believe that he`s going to stop with this narrative.
HAYES: You know, that moment last night in the Al Smith Dinner was interesting to me, because the country has been subjected to these debates in which Donald Trump has, I think strategically and intentionally, attempted to humiliate, degrade, debase Hillary Clinton to belittle her, to shrink her. And here was this sort of ritual opportunity to sort of do that if you do it with enough humor, and this just totally visceral rejection of it by the people in the room and everyone that I know that was watching.
SEDER: Yeah. I mean, he didn`t - he wasn`t making jokes. I mean, there`s just - there`s just too much anger there. And I think, you know, to a certain extent, it speaks to the argument that Hillary Clinton has been making that this guy doesn`t have the temperament to be president. I mean, you know, this is a diplomatic setting. Obviously, it`s not international diplomacy, but it`s one where you have to balance who you`re speaking to, and he didn`t seem to have any ability to do that. And so, it just sort of reinforced this narrative and I guess, you know, people there didn`t appreciate it.
HAYES: Do you think we are going to see - are we going to see a kind of backlash amongst Trump voters down the stretch towards the Republican Party, because that`s the thing we started to see brewing? And it`s so powerful that Ryan and McConnell, it was so notable to me, neither of them issued a statement after this routine condemnation around the horn for that moment when he refused to accept the results. I think that`s going to intensify in some ways. I think the anger is going to be directed most at them.
SEDER: Well, I mean, I think it`s going to be a function of what Trump`s strategy is. I mean, he is - I think as he comes to grips with the idea that he`s going to lose the election, if that happens, I mean, certainly the numbers point to that, he`s going to -he`s going to have this two- pronged strategy, right, which to delegitimize a Hillary Clinton. I think Rebecca Trace had a great tweet that said, that in some ways this is - this is the birther movement 0.2, I guess.
HAYES: Right.
SEDER: You know, the idea that this the way that he is going to attempt to delegitimize the Clinton presidency, but he also has to -- you know, he`s been hinting at this sort of stabbed-in-the-back narrative. And I would be surprised if he doesn`t start to speak more of that as we get closer to the election.
HAYES: All right. Sam Seder, who for reasons I can`t quite get my head around is still in Las Vegas lo these many days after the debate.
SEDER: Well, what stays here stays here, right?
HAYES: Yeah, I can`t help but notice you were not in Farmville for the whole week. Still to come, the question in the heart of the Bridgegate Scandal, what did Chris Christie know, and when did he know it? And the answer is right after this two-minute break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
TRUMP: We`ve got the best people. I know the best people. I know the best managers. I know the best dealmakers. I have the most dedicated people. I have the best people. I have the best people.
HAYES: The so-called best people that Donald Trump has surrounded himself with at different points in this presidential campaign include current Campaign CEO Steve Bannon who boasted that he turned the website Breitbart into the platform for the white nationalist alt-right. Disgraced former Fox News Chairman and CEO Roger Ailes resigned amid widespread allegations of sexual harassment, though, appears not been speaking to Trump now according to reporting, former campaign manager Corey Lewandowski was charged for simple battery for grabbing a female reporter, though was not prosecuted, and of course, Trump surrogate Rudy Giuliani seen here, not enjoying Hillary Clinton`s jokes at the Al Smith Dinner last night, who falsely accused Clinton of lying about where she was on September 11th, and also has been known to spread unsubstantiated conspiracy theories about her health.
And then there are Trump`s best people dealing with possible legal trouble. That includes Maricopa County, Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio currently trailing badly in his re-election campaign, who faces a justice department criminal contempt charge for violating a court order to stop immigration patrols that included racial profiling of Latinos, and who is still, we should note, questioning President Obama`s birth certificate. And, of course, New Jersey Governor and Trump confidant Chris Christie, the head of Trump`s transition team, a potential attorney general in the Trump administration, who came within a whisker of being Trump`s vice presidential pick. Christie will appear in court on November 23rd, to answer a criminal official misconduct complaint tied to the Bridgegate Scandal.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHRISTIE: I had no knowledge or involvement in this issue, in its planning or its execution, and I am stunned by the abject stupidity that was shown here.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: In court today, Christie`s former top aide Bridget Anne Kelly contradicted Christie`s unequivocal claim that he had no knowledge whatsoever about Bridgegate. Kelly testifying she told Christie about a conversation she have with former Port Authority executive David Wildstein, quote, "I said Governor, by the way, I spoke to Wildstein today. Apparently, the Port Authority is going to be doing a traffic study in Fort Lee. I explained the access lanes to him. He said, `OK. When are they doing this?` I said, Wildstein did say there`s going to be tremendous traffic problems in Fort Lee."
Joining me now, MSNBC host, political correspondent Steve Kornacki. You`ve been following this closely. I mean, give us the basic lay of the land which is Christie was unequivocal on the record in front of all the records, i knew zero before or after until it was in the press. What has the trial shown?
STEVE KORNACKI, MSNBC HOST AND POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, this was supposed to be the smoking gun. And for two and a half years nobody, and that includes the prosecutors until today, have heard - had heard from Bridget Kelly. Bridget Kelly has the e-mail. Time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee. It looks like, you know, case closed right there. Her lawyer has suggested for the last two and a half years that when she finally gets to court, there will be context added to this that will make it look very different. So, this is - this is a big thing she`s adding, and testifying today and saying, "Look, there is a history to that e-mail, and the history is Wildstein tells me he`s got this plan. The plan is going to ultimately improve traffic, let Christie take credit for solving traffic jam in North Jersey." She takes it to Christie, she explains the situation, and she says time for some traffic. So, she`s implicating Chris Christie a month earlier than the shutdowns. And she added a second detail, too. She said that during the shutdowns, this is September 2013, that in one of those days, Chris Christie came back from a 9/11 ceremony where he met with Wildstein, where he met with Baroni, and that Christie was talking about how the traffic issue came up in their conversation. And he knew there was a big traffic mess playing out in Fort Lee. And of course, Wildstein had testified earlier that he had this conversation with Christie at that ceremony on 9/11, because she`s -
HAYES: Basically saying, "This is what we did, boss."
KORNACKI: She is essentially corroborating what Wildstein said there. There`s two key things that she came out with today.
HAYES: Now, we should be clear. Wildstein`s story here and to remember this, right, this massive traffic jam happened. Wildstein`s story is basically this was cooked up as political punishment for Mayor Sokolich who would not endorse Christie. Bridget Anne Kelly saying, "I thought it was a traffic study, and governor as far as I know knew as traffic study," but still corroborates he knew about it and he was also talking about it after it was happening.
KORNACKI: Here`s the - now, Bridget Kelly, we have to say, when the prosecutor -- this was the defense attorney doing the question today.
HAYES: Right.
KORNACKI: The prosecution will get a chance at her. She`s vulnerable on a few fronts that we should -
HAYES: Right.
KORNACKI: -- we should point out, because during the shutdown, she was told that the mayor of the town that was being affected was furious, was baffled, was trying to get explanations, told of the problems he was facing. She has an e-mail where she said good. There`s also the fact that as this was coming to a head in December of 2013, and Christie sat people on his staff down and asked for explanations behind the scenes, she saw to it that this e-mail got deleted from somebody else`s. So, there`s also - if you`re looking for a gray area here, where if you say, you believe the essence of what she`s saying today, but maybe it`s more complicated? You know, there could be a gray area where she had some knowledge but she`s trying to say, "Hey, I wasn`t the only one. My boss did."
HAYES: The thing I keep thinking about is two different counterfactual earth Bs. Let`s call earth B and earth C. Earth B is Christie won the nomination and three weeks before Election Day, this is what`s in the news, the trial that saying the guy was a liar. Earth C, which is an even closer eventuality, is he became the vice presidential nominee and he`s on the ticket.
KORNACKI: Yeah. Well - and also, just think back a couple years, I mean, you could write a book on the rise of Trump and the history of the Republican Party 2012 to 2016, that book would start with Chris Christie as the front-runner. At the end of 2012 and through most of 2013, it was all gearing up toward this re-election campaign in New Jersey, and the whole idea, everybody in the Christie universe in New Jersey in 2013, was thinking about what can I do to make that margin on Election Day 2013 -
HAYES: A route, we need a route.
KORNACKI: Right. It was almost like Nixon in `72, the Watergate parallel. You do the small thing that`s going to raise the numbers so we can go and say, "Hey, I`m the republican governor in a blue state and I just got 60 percent of the vote, you need me to win.
HAYES: This is, we should note, Chris Christie, the guy who is overseeing the transition for Donald Trump right now should that eventually happen. Steve Kornacki, thanks for being here.
KORNACKI: Sure.
HAYES: Coming up, the latest polling isn`t looking good for Trump, but could results on Election Day be possibly worse? More on that, just ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HAYES: After telling some jokes at last night`s Al Smith Dinner, a white tie affair held by catholic charities, Hillary Clinton`s speech took a serious turn when she basically gave the closing argument for her entire campaign.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: You certainly don`t need to be catholic to be inspired by the humility and heart of the holy father, Pope Francis, or to embrace his message. His message about rejecting a mind-set of hostility, his calls to reduce inequality, his warnings about climate change, his appeal that we build bridges, not walls. Now, as you may know, my running mate, Tim, is catholic and went to Jesuit schools, and one of the things he and I talked about, is this idea from the Jesuits of the Magis, the more, the better. Well, we need to get better at finding ways to disagree on matters of policy while agreeing on questions of decency and civility. How we talk to each other, treat each other, respect each other. So, I`ve taken this concept of Magis to heart in this campaign as best as one can in the daily heat, the back and forth of a presidential campaign, to ask how we can do more for each other and better for each other. Because I believe that for each of us, our greatest monument on this earth won`t be what we build, but the lives we touched.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Won`t be what we build. Ahead, why what Clinton said is essentially a reminder about what her campaign thinks this election is ultimately about. A referendum on what kind of country we are.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HAYES: 18 days before Election Day, Donald Trump is on the wrong side of the polls. And with each passing day, more early votes are cast. Data on early voting is thus far favoring the democrats. According to The Washington Post, in seven states for which returned ballot data was available by party, democratic ballots made up a larger percentage of what had come back by the 20-day mark than in 2012. That`s the apples to apples comparison. Trump would need something to radically shake up the race or for the polls to be very wrong, which is, of course, a possibility. There is the "Shy Voter" theory, the idea that some Trump voters might not admit their support to a pollster, but will cast that vote on Election Day. There`s even an opposing theory that Trump voters might underperform on Election Day compared to the polls. Here`s an example, it`s noted by Daily Coast, Missouri senate candidate Todd Akin 2012, whose poll numbers started slipping after his infamous legitimate rape - legitimate rape comment. The last polling average before 2012 election gave Akin`s opponent Senator Claire McCaskill an 8.7 percent lead. McCaskill ended up winning by a whopping 15.7 percent. Might be Akin effect be a play in this election? Joining me now Harry Enten, senior political writer and analyst for the - for FiveThirtyEight. You guys have written about this.
HARRY ENTEN, SENIOR POLITICAL WRITER AND ANALYST FOR FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: We have.
HAYES: About candidates that have some kind of disastrous character issue explode late in a race underperforming in the polls.
ENTEN: Sure. And I would argue even earlier. You know, David Duke, remember when he ran for governor in 1991, there was all this conversation. Oh, people don`t want to say that they`d vote for David Duke because obviously David Duke held some abhorrent views.
What happened on election day? There, in fact, were voters, African- Americans, who turned out in record numbers and David Duke underperformed his polls and the Edwards, the Democratic candidate, won rather easily.
HAYES: So, what you have in the Duke case is that he actually underperformed -- he was polling higher than he ended up performing.
ENTEN: Yes.
HAYES: And much of that is accounting of the fact that he was such a lightning rod and so to use a word: "deplorable."
ENTEN: Yeah.
HAYES: That he was more of a motivator -- he was more of a motivator for his opponents, essentially.
ENTEN: Exactly.
And it really wouldn`t take much of a surprise -- you know, really much to happen to say, OK, Latinos, for example. We`re seeing them register in higher numbers in a state like Arizona that`s much closer than you might have thought at the beginning of the year. Why would that be? It`s because of Donald Trump.
And so it wouldn`t shock me at all to see, oh my god, higher Latino turnout, these polls in fact could be skewed against the Democrats.
HAYES: So, what`s -- so then what is the deal, do you think, with this online poll versus live interviewer thing that we`ve seen, right. So, Clinton 48-38 according to HuffPo in live interviepolls much narrower lead, about four points, in online polls. That`s the evidence for the shy Trump voter theory, right, that when interviewers happen -- when you take away the interviewers, Trump does better.
ENTEN: Sure, but we saw this during the primaries as well and then we saw some convergence when the vote happened. And the polls were good in the primary, right. It was the pundits, such as myself, who though, oh there`s no way that Donald Trump could possibly win the nomination.
The polls, though, from August of 2015 onward they all said Trump was going to win and he did win.
HAYES: You know, you also got -- so we got the Aiken example, you guys cited Anthony Weiner, as well, where there was -- Weiner, even after when that mayoral race and the sort of texting scandal resurfaced for him, his poll numbers declined, but by election day he even underperformed his low poll numbers.
ENTEN: Right, you know, he was at about 10 percent, and then got about 5 percent of the vote. I mean, that`s a perfect example, right, of someone who has a real name, a real New Yorker, kind of that outer borough thing and voters at the end of the day said, uh-uh, not interested.
HAYES: So, is that -- what`s the theory of the case there someone like Aiken, for someone like Anthony Weiner, which is different than David Duke. David Duke is sort of polarizing to the opposition. In the Aiken case, is it that essentially late polls don`t just capture the amount of movement that`s happening downward in the trajectory when voters make up their mind that someone is beyond the pale.
ENTEN: Right. I mean, that would certainly be the case. I think it`s also that people who might say they`re going to vote for Aiken don`t end up showing up because they`re just so dissatisfied with what`s going on. And I think that could be the case for especially for Trump.
HAYES: Or just like so dismayed, right. You`ve watch this whole implosion happen. Why go to the polls if you think the guy is going to...
ENTEN: Especially if your candidate is arguing the whole thing is rigged anyway, right.
HAYES: Right, which is another thing that you and others have written about and there`s some political science data that actually telling voters that it`s rigged is a great way to suppress turnout among your supporters.
ENTEN: Exactly. So I just don`t really understand what`s -- this is one of these things that Trump does that nobody really understands what he`s doing. I just think he`s so upset, but in fact it could turn very much against him.
HAYES: In fact, most -- and I`ve been around a lot of political organizers. I`ve been around field organizers. My brother was a field organizer, I`ve actually back in the day was a canvaser. You want to send the opposite message. The message you want to send is literally every vote counts, even single one. It`s a pain. Maybe you have got to get child care on election day, maybe you can go early, but it`s so important to put in this effort precisely because every vote counts.
ENTEN: And Donald Trump is playing against the playbook because that`s what worked for him in the primary, but I have news for him. General election electorates are different than primary electorates, and it`s clear from the polling that whatever he`s doing is not working.
HAYES: Harry Enten, thanks for your time. Appreciate it.
ENTEN: Thank you.
HAYES: Still ahead, tonight`s Thing One, Thing Two is next.
And later, if you think this election is nuts just 18 days out how does it stack up against past elections at the same point? Some unbelievable tape coming up.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAEL DUKAKIS, FRM. DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE FOR PRESIDENT: I`m fed up with it. Never seen anything like it in 25 years of public life, George Bush`s negative TV ads.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: we`re doing something that`s incredible, it`s a movement. But if we don`t win, all it is is a little asterisk in history. There`s never been anything like this. So go and register, make sure you get out and November, 28.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: November 28.
Thing One tonight, there`s a good reason why November 28, not November 8, actual election day, might be weighing on Donald Trump`s mind. You see there`s two big things happening for him next month. First, the presidential election, November 8. Then, the fraud trial for Trump University which begins on November 28.
Trump is being called to testify in federal court in San Diego against charges he deliberately set out to rip off students. The presiding judge is judge Gonzalo Curiel who Trump unforgettably attacked earlier this year.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: There should be no trial. This should have been dismissed on summary judgment easily. Everybody says it, but I have a judge who is a hater of Donald Trump, a hater. He`s a hater. His name is Gonzalo Curiel. The judge, who happens to be, we believe, Mexican, which is great, I think that`s fine -- this court system, the judges in this court system, federal court, they ought to look into Judge Curiel, because what Judge Curiel is doing is a total disgrace, OK.
TRUMP: I have had horrible rulings. I`ve been treated very unfairly by this judge.
Now, this judge is of Mexican heritage. I`m building a wall, okay? I`m building a wall.
JOHN DICKERSON, CBS NEWS: How does his Mexican parents have to do with him not ruling for you?
TRUMP: He`s a member of a club, or society, very strongly pro-Mexican, which is all fine, But I say he`s got bias. I want to build a wall. I`m going to build a wall.
This judge has treated me very unfairly. He`s treated me in a hostile manner and there`s something going on.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: So how will that, not to mention everything else Donald Trump has been saying in his presidential campaign, affect what`s going to happen in Judge Curiel`s courtroom? Well, his lawyers have a plan and that`s Thing Two in 60 seconds.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HAYES: So in anticipation of the upcoming fraud trial for Trump University -- you remember that,by the way? Where did that go? Donald Trump`s lawyers have filed a request, defendants respectfully move to exclude evidence and arguments relating to statements made by or about Mr. Trump outside of the adjudicative process.
Trump`s lawyers go on to specific exactly what they do not want brought up in court. That includes campaign speeches, statements at political rallies, including statements about this case, statements at debates, statements about individuals or entities unrelated to this litigation, campaign advertisements, tweets, statements by campaign surrogates, audio and video recordings made or publicized during the campaign, tax issues, comments about this case or the court Donald J. Trump Foundation or other business owned or managed by Mr. Trump not part of this litigation including Trump organization, personal conduct accusations, other politicians, state attorneys general or public servants, beauty pageants, casinos and corporate bankruptcies, other litigation. Basically Trump`s lawyers want to make sure that literally nothing that their client or presidential campaign has done or said or tweeted makes it into the courtroom next month.
Good luck.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HAYES: Donald Trump waxing philosophical after getting booed at a charity dinner at down ballot Republicans distancing themselves and their party`s presidential nominee, the headline from the campaign trail today, just 18 days from the election are pretty shocking.
We made us wonder what was happening at this point in other American elections 18 days out. Here`s what we found.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENITIFIED MALE: The two vice presidential candidates, Dole and Mondale have their debate tonight. Here`s what they were doing today.
UNIDENITIIFED MALE: Senator Mondale suffers some from hypertension. Today he was a study in relaxed confidence, out playing tennis early this morning.
The competition on the court came from members of his campaign staff. Some suggested it wasn`t quite as tough as the competition that Mondale might expect from the debate tonight.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Nixon makes the same speech everywhere he goes. All candidates do that, but Nixon is speaking on the issues of the day in only the most general way. He`s saying there`s lots of things wrong with this country and he`s promising to do something about it, but he`s not saying what.
RICHARD NIXON, 37TH PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Time will not permit an extended discussion of those great problems in which you`re all interested.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Today, Gore hits the talkshow circuit, sitting down with Regis and Rosie, reaching out to their large female audiences.
AL GORE, FRM. VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The real key is the classroom experience.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: In New Jersey, Bush used heckling by Clinton supporters to remind everyone of his draft controversy.
GEORGE H.W. BUSH, 41ST PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I wish these draft dodgers would shut up so I could finish my speech. Pathetic.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: As this highly negative campaign turned even more personal, Dukakis took another step, putting out a commercial to complain about a Bush commercial.
DUKAKIS: I`m fed up with it. I haven`t seen anything like it in 25 years of public life. George Bush`s negative TV ads.
JOE THE PLUMBER: I`m Joe the Plumber. It is going to fun for a couple of days and then it`s going to go away.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: But not yet. Joe is still a useful symbol to the McCain/Palin ticket.
SARAH PALIN, FRM. GOVERNOR OF ALASKA: Now, our opponent wants to raise taxes because he thinks like that other Joe, that longtime senator from Delaware, that other Joe.
BRIAN WILLIAMS, NBC NEWS: On the broadcast tonight, 18 days and one last critical debate to go now. Tonight, there`s a new word in the political dictionary...
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think it`s called Romney-sia.
Here`s the good news, Obamacare covers pre-existing conditions.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HAYES: But it wasn`t all fun and tennis games. Take a look at the events 18 days out from the election day in 1968, at a campaign event for George Wallace, a candidate whose raucous rallies, shall we call them, many have cited as the best precedent for Trump.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENITIFIED MALE: George Wallace rested today at his home in Montgomery. He had canceled today`s schedule. An aide said he is suffering completely exhaustion.
Wallace himself as he campaigned in Texas yesterday had told news men he was tired. NBC News correspondent Dave Burrington (ph) reports.
DAVID BURRINGTON (ph), NBC NEWS: George Wallace`s spirits appeared to be sagging as he arrived in Ft. Worth. For several days, he had run into overwhelming protests and he was shouted down in El Paso.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is Wallace country, but he ran into one of the worst and one of the loudest protest demonstrations of his campaign so far.
GEORGE WALLACE, FRM. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You`ve got some folks out here who know a lot of four-letter words, but there are two four-letter words they don`t know. W-O-R-K and S-O-A-P, you don`t know those two- letter words, I`ll say that much.
And you know the biggest bigots in the world? They are the folks that call other folks bigots, you remember that. They are the biggest bigots in the world.
Oh, yeah. You know what you are, you`re a little punk, that`s all you are.
Well, let`s talk about Vietnam a moment. You haven`t got any guts. You`ve got too much hair on your head, partner. You got a load on your mind, that`s right. And cut the floodlights off. And if you haven`t got anything to put on television, why don`t you just move on over here.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: At one point, the secret service ordered the lights on Wallace turned out. They were fearful of an attempt on the candidate`s life and said the lights blinded them.
The shouting didn`t let up and after more than 30 minutes of it, Wallace gave up. He waved to his fans and then left without finishing his speech. He looked haggard and at times even frightened.
David Burrington (ph), NBC News, with the Wallace campaign in Texas.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HAYES: 18 days later, Wallace came in third behind Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey with just under 10 million votes.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KHIZR KHAN, FATHER OF FALLEN SOLDIER: Donald Trump consistently smears the character of Muslims. He loves to build walls and ban us from this country. Have you even read the United States Constitution? I will gladly lend you my copy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: For the fallout over the Access Hollywood tape or his degrading feud with the former Miss Universe, before the allegations of unwanted physical contact from at least maybe nine, maybe ten women, Donald Trump spent nearly a week of his campaign this past summer attacking the Muslim American parents of a fallen soldier.
Khizr Khan, and his wife Bizallah (ph) appeared at the Democratic National Convention in July to speak out against Trump`s proposed ban on Muslims and to tell the story of their son, captain Humayun Khan who was killed in Iraq.
Khizr Khan question Trump`s own sacrifices for this country. All that led the Republican nominee to attack the family for days while his allies launched a smear campaign against them.
Now, with 18 days left in this campaign, as part of Hillary Clinton`s closing message, Khizr Khan retells his son`s story in a new ad for Clinton that argues the election is ultimately about the character of this nation.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KHAN: In 2004, my son was stationed in Iraq. He saw a suicide bomber approaching his camp. My son moved forward to stop the bomber when the bomb exploded. He saved everyone in his unit. Only one American soldier died. My son was Captain Humayun Khan. He was 27 years old. And he was a Muslim-American.
I want to ask Mr. Trump would my son have a place in your America?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Joining me now Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell and Jamil Smith, senior national correspondent for MTV News. Obviously, unbelievably powerful ad. But also just like part of the reason this election feels so fraught and so wrenching is how existential it feels in that it`s not like there`s a big -- like the big fights are over a Medicaid expansion or the top marginal...
CATHERINE RAMPELL, WASHINGTON POST: Or the culture wars.
HAYES: Or even the culture wars. It`s literally who are we. And not even as subtext, as explicit text, as the argument of the campaign is Hillary Clinton is saying who are we as a nation, and that`s the closing argument. What kind of nation do you want it to be?
JAMIL SMITH, MTV NEWS: This election has been about identity politics, been about race, been about gender, this is an ad that`s about identity politics in the national sense. What are we as Americans? And in what way do we define American?
Is American too narrowly defined in a Trump universe?
HAYES: Yeah, and that`s -- you know, the Trump idea here is that, you know, change or status quo which they`ve sort of landed on as their closing message, but in fact what it has been is about what great Americanness really looks like.
RAMPELL: Well, I think this has been explicit -- maybe implicit, but it has been part of the campaign from the very beginning when he first started talking about making America great again, because the question was, for whom was it great.
HAYES: And when.
RAMPELL: And when. And when.
And if you`re talking about throwing back to a time when large sections of the American public were disenfranchised, were not allowed to vote, were not allowed to hold certain jobs, were not allowed to marry people of a different race. I mean, this is the kind of America that he`s nostalgic about and that he has been talking up about the campaign.
So, I don`t think it`s necessarily a new thing.
HAYES: There`s also this -- there is this degree to which I think there`s pundits buy into this and people covering the race about like this is a change election. And what they`ll point to is the people that want change over status quo. And it`s true, right. But then you look at something like -- and the Trump people and a lot of Republicans are like how is Hillary Clinton winning? And then you look at Obama job approval in Gallup: 55-42.
You look at the basically the Obama majority. You look at the fact that there is a majority out there that essentially wants the America that is the Obama`s America, for lack of a better word, and I think it drives people crazy to imagine they`re on the wrong side of that math.
SMITH: Which makes it even more confusing why Donald Trump is now persisting with a change message in this recent ad that he put out saying that, you know, essentially we need to change in every single way that Washington does business.
Well, a lot of people like how government works. They like government working for them. And they like to see government working for them.
And I just don`t understand if you`re actually trying to win, that`s the message you put up.
But I don`t necessarily think he`s necessarily trying to win. I think he`s trying to animate his base.
RAMPELL: But it`s not just about Washington, right, it`s also about the economy. And if you look at our economy, we have record high wage growth last year, like the highest in decades. We have unemployment at 5 percent. We have very low inflation, gas prices are cheap. There`s a lot of reasons to -- not to mention health insurance, you know, that we have the lowest rate of uninsured, you know, ever.
And there are a lot of reasons to say maybe things aren`t perfect, but they`ve been going in the right direction at the very least.
HAYES: And that story -- and Matt Iglesias had a good piece about this where he called it. He said there is a new silent majority and it`s voting for Hillary Clinton, that throughout the campaign,you know, particularly Bernie followers in the primary section for -- for I think understandable reasons got a lot of coverage because of the intensity, because of how surprising it was that Sanders was doing as well as he was, here`s a socialist who is competing.
We`ve seen an entire genre devoted to the Trump voter -- a million different magazine pieces, the sort of literary pastoral looks at the Trump voter. The Hillary Clinton voter, the voter of the continuity, the voter of, yeah, let`s keep the kind of Obama project going.
RAMPELL: Let`s not rock the boat.
HAYES: Let`s not rock, that`s a totally invisible person, but is probably going to end up being numerically the modal voter.
SMITH: Well, people think we already know those voters. They think they know the Obama coalition. They think that they know older women who have longed for a woman to be president. They think that they understand these voters, but they don`t really get involved in the nitty-gritty about what they actually want.
And it would be nice to see that explored a little bit more even beyond the campaign.
RAMPELL: I mean, just to push back a little bit, I think part of the reason why there is a genre of the Trump voter portrait is partly that the locus of media is on the east coast in relatively liberal places. And so it is hard for a lot of us liberal media elites so to speak to really wrap our heads around. why Trump is so appealing.
HAYES: I agree. What I think ends up happening, and I totally get that and I think it`s really important to talk to folks, and like something we`ve done, and I`ve done throughout the campaign. I talked to people who are supporters. But there is -- what ends up happening is you can go to the point where to prove the authenticity that you don`t have, but you want to get to ignore the story that`s there, right, which is that like why are these people voting for essentially a third term of Barack Obama when literally when you watch cable news, you watch pundits write about it`s like everyone wants change, everyone hates the way things are going.
That`s not true. That`s just not true.
SMITH: And all the people of color, especially you know people like me who come from the Midwest and have seen these Trump supporters in different cloth, so to speak, before this and been pleading, hey, America, this is the reality of racism in this country. This is the reality of white resentment in this country, and never been listened to until now until they`ve actually had a candidate to vote for? I mean, that I think is a big reason why people are seeing these pieces that are treating Trump voters as if it`s some kind of rare species, and wondering...
RAMPELL: Anthropologic there is, ethnographic aspect.
HAYES: Which can also in their -- also can sort of end up to me being a little condescending in their own way, right, because it`s like -- but I also think that, you know, ultimately because this final argument is going to be so existential, because the campaign has been existential, what kind of country are we? That`s been campaign question that`s being answered. The idea of putting that back together afterwards also seems really hard because there`s just...
RAMPELL: Trump has not seem keen on putting it back together afterward.
HAYES: That`s also true. Catherine Rampell and Jamil Smith, thank you both.
That is All In for this evening. The Rachel Maddow show starts right now.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. END