Show: ALL IN with CHRIS HAYES Date: February 2, 2016 Guest: Charlie Pierce, Ben Domenech, Harry Enten, Katrina Vanden Heuvel, Howard Dean, Keith Ellison
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHRIS HAYES, MSNBC HOST (voice-over): Tonight on ALL IN --
SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What a victory last night.
HAYES: We now know who won the votes in Iowa.
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: There was a big turnout and we won.
HAYES: But who is winning the narrative?
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We just got in from Iowa, where we astounded the world.
(CHEERS)
HAYES: Then, how does Donald Trump respond to defeat?
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You have many, many people that aren`t doing well. I am doing well.
HAYES: And since when is third place a victory?
SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We`re incredibly grateful and excited about all this.
HAYES: And the trouble with deciding who will lead the free world with a coin toss.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Tie has been broken by a coin flip and will go to Bernie Sanders for the delegate.
HAYES: ALL IN starts right now.
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HAYES: Well, good evening from back here in New York. I am Chris Hayes.
And now that the battle for votes in Iowa has ended, the fight for control of the vaunted narrative begins in earnest. In terms of hard numbers, the winners and losers are pretty straightforward. You can look them up online or look at our fancy graphics here.
According to the state parties, Ted Cruz topped the Republican field, followed by Donald Trump and Marco Rubio. While Hillary Clinton narrowly eked out a victory over a rival Democrat Bernie Sanders who finished less than a point back.
Then, there are the winners and losers determined by the political media industrial complex based on a pretty precise combination, of reading conventional wisdom, scoring the entrance polls and handicapping the performance versus expectation.
No candidate seemed to have that second contest in mind more than Marco Rubio who started spinning long before his third place finish last night leaking his so-called three, two, one plan -- third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, first in South Carolina, two weeks ago.
Last night he had this to say about losing to Ted Cruz and Donald Trump by a smaller margin than polls predicted.
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RUBIO: So, this is the moment they said would never happen. For months, for months they told us we had no chance. For months, they told us because we offered too much optimism in the time of anger, we had no chance.
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HAYES: Wait, you didn`t read all those op-ed by they about how Rubio couldn`t finish third in Iowa?
Now, Rubio is being crowned the real winner of last night`s Republican contests. The establishment`s only alternative to hope to Cruz and Trump. And with the race moving onto New Hampshire, where Rubio was on the ground campaigning today, anything less than second place for Rubio in next week`s primary will look like a catastrophic failure. That is now the bench mark.
While third place turned into a self-proclaimed victory for Rubio, second place was widely seen as the end of the road for Donald Trump who`s built his campaign on the idea that with him in charge, America will be a winner.
There was plenty of schadenfreude to go around, especially online, with an old tweet of Trump from 2013 made the rounds, "No one remembers who came in second."
And this was today`s cover of one of Trump`s hometown papers, "New York Daily News", "Dead clown walking."
And while it`s true that Trump fell short of his standing in recent polls, the last dozen of which showed him leading in Iowa, we here at ALL IN would like to take a step back, and give the Donald a little credit.
Bear with me for a second. Not only did he finish second in a state that rewards grassroots organizing and evangelical outreach, neither of which are his strong suit. But yesterday, for the first time, American citizens got into their cars, and drove to their caucus sites and stood in line and actually voted for Donald J. Trump. Real estate mogul come ethno nationalist reality star for president of the United States.
In fact, with last night`s high turn out, he earned more votes from Iowa Republicans than any other candidate in all of history except for one. That`s Ted Cruz, last night.
At a caucus in Des Moines, I talked to one of those voters who was caucusing for the first time.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I like Donald Trump. He`s not bought and paid for, you know? I look at politicians. I might be radical here, but they`re like horse, you know? They go out there, they show -- they tell people what they want. The donors basically hire them for services. They do with the donors want. I like Trump because he`s his own man.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: With his big win last night sustained by an extensive ground game and impressive messages when Ted Cruz just became the first candidate to take a punch from Donald Trump and successfully bounced back. And unlike previous caucus winners, including Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Cruz still has plenty of cash on hand to fight it out in New Hampshire and beyond.
Now, on the Democratic side, after a night of counting and persuading and navigating the state party, Hillary Clinton was finally declared the winner by a miniscule margin of four delegates out of a total of 1,406.
Those numbers may not reflect who turned out to vote for each candidate. In some precincts, delegates to the local county convention who elect the other delegates up the chain were awarded through a coin toss.
Today, Bernie Sanders told reporters he`s not ready to concede the caucuses.
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SANDERS: We want to look at it. You know, when you have -- again, I was on plane last night. I`m here right now, so we have other time to analyze it. People in Iowa are taking a look at that. It may be the case for some delegates were selected based on a flip of the coin but not the best way to do democracy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Clinton narrowly escaped what would have been a devastating in 2008 when she finished third behind Barack Obama and John Edwards. And while the campaign is touting Clinton`s victory, he`s the first woman ever to win Iowa, it`s impossible to ignore what Bernie Sanders pulled off last night. The 74-year-old self-described Democratic socialist from Vermont who drew comparison to protest candidates like Dennis Kucinich and Rand Paul over 50 point deficit several months ago to finish in a virtual tie with a former secretary of state and former first lady and New York senator.
Now, heading into New Hampshire, it`s all about the expectations game and it`s clear what message Hillary Clinton is trying to send.
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CLINTON: I was thrilled by winning and getting that boost out of Iowa here in New Hampshire where I am in Senator Sanders backyard, as you know as a political expert of many years. New Hampshire votes for neighbors. I have to really get out there and make my case, which I intend to do this week.
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HAYES: Moments ago in New Hampshire where he was endorsed by former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, a notably subdued Donald Trump attempted the difficult task of lowering expectations while maintaining his signature swagger.
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TRUMP: I`d love to finish first. Again, it would still not be horrible because you`re competing against a lot of very talented people that have been politicians all their lives. I`ve been a politician for six months. But, no, I`d love to finish first.
REPORTER: Second wouldn`t be horrible.
TRUMP: Wouldn`t be horrible, but it wouldn`t be the worst thing in the world. I can think of worst things, but I`d like to finish first.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Joining me now, Joan Walsh, national correspondent for "The Nation" and an MSNBC political analyst, Charlie Pierce, writer at large for "Esquire Magazine", Ben Domenech, publisher of "The Federalist".
And I think we have to start with Marco Rubio`s remarkably, effective, hubris here. It`s almost like he`s attempting to pull a Jedi mind trick on everyone`s who`s watching, like telling everyone I came in first when we can all read the numbers.
But, Joan, it was -- in some ways, it was effective because the benchmark set by the polling and he did out perform polling the most of any candidate.
JOAN WALSH, MSNBC POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes, he exceeded expectations. That speech really did require chutzpah. As I was watching it, I was kind laughing.
And yet it did tell us something, it told us that he came in third. It told us that he outperform. It did set him ahead for now the other folks in his lane, John Kasich, poor Jeb Bush who got one delegate. Chris Christie.
But the thing that`s very tough for him is that it stays tough. Those four guys don`t like each other. There`s no establishment to come in and knock some heads together and say, look, Marco is our guy. He did the best. He`s trailing. I mean, he`ll go ahead, but he`s trailing Bush and he`s trailing Kasich in New Hampshire.
So, there`s still a fight into New Hampshire. Just claiming victory before Ted Cruz could speak is not going to change the fact he`s still got tough work to do in New Hampshire, and he doesn`t have people who look they are anxious to go away. Chris Christie is still in there, calling him bubble boy, insulting him in the way that he does best. So, it`s going to stay very interesting for a while.
HAYES: And, Ben, I think the thing that is struck me is first of all, you say this three, two, one idea. OK, so you got the three. That`s the easiest of three, two one. Now, so, you have this benchmark for yourself, the second. Ted Cruz, Ted Cruz will have a lot of momentum.
And I think if there`s one unquestionable winner last night, it`s Ted Cruz. I mean, Ted Cruz won the night last night. He`s got the biggest margin. He came this first. He`s got a lot of momentum. He`s got money and betting markets which flipped Rubio and Trump without Cruz getting a bump, I think, are insane. There`s money on the table on those betting markets because Ted Cruz has a very good shot at nomination. Do you agree?
BEN DOMENECH, THE FEDERALIST: I agree. I think that he actually has -- I mean, you have to say he`s the front-runner. He has the best shot of the nomination. He has the resources for it. He will go into South Carolina probably and focus more there than New Hampshire and he has a lot of people there who are ready to help him.
I think, though, this is situation where Marco Rubio has been all about the meta narrative related to the establishment dollars for the past several weeks and even months, trying to make the case, look, guys, I`m your guy. I`m the closest thing that you can get to what you actually want. You need to ride with me.
I think that`s really what this case was about. It`s more about speaking to the establishment. It was funny to see him reference that line very similar to the one that Barack Obama made back in 2008 for a third place finish as opposed to a first place finish. That was pretty funny.
HAYES: They said it could never happen, like all these people writing these grant, elegant dissertations, about like Marco Rubio could never find from fourth to third in Iowa.
Charlie, on the Democratic side, you and I ran into each other on the streets of Marshalltown, Iowa outside of Bernie Sanders launch event. You and I were talking. I was saying my sort of private guess from what I could glean is. I thought Hillary Clinton would win by three to five points.
I thought they have a first rate organization in Iowa. I was skeptical they could build the capacity to turn out people in as geographically distributed way as they needed to. Were you surprised by last night`s result?
CHARLIE PIERCE, ESQUIRE: First of all, Chris, my facility in the political journal industrial complex is completely powered by clean energy. I`m just telling you. It`s completely powered by ethanol. It`s completely powered by ethanol, and I think I just won three votes in a caucus in Iowa somewhere.
No, I mean, I thought this would be one of those things where you didn`t really know who won until the next day. That`s partly because -- especially on the Democrat side, the Iowa caucuses are an insane way to make any decision.
But I thought he was showing remarkable strength or there was a remarkable attraction to him in different parts of the state, especially along the Mississippi River and those old industrial towns where you`ve got very big Catholic vote. I do think that -- obviously, he would have been better off if he won. But I think he did show more strength than people thought he had in the last weekend where Mrs. Clinton, or, I`m sorry, Hillary Rodham Clinton, that was a really terrible way to put that, where they thought she had put together to maybe push her three or four points, which was the conventional wisdom going into last night.
HAYES: Yes. And, Joan, I thought -- I mean, from what I could tell, I mean, I think that Clinton operation in Iowa did an excellent job. And to me, the idea that the issue here is the campaign is a little, I think misdirected. I mean, clearly, there`s a message situation happening here. We`ll talk later in the show about whether to adjust it or not.
But what do you think -- what is your take away out of this strange, almost high that ended up happening last night?
WALSH: Well, look, I think Bernie Sanders had a great night, but she did too. She did win.
And this is -- you know, I`m still here so I can say this is still a Bernie Sanders state. It`s a very white state. It`s very liberal state, 43 percent of Iowa Democrats told "The Washington Post" that they are socialists. God bless them. I`m happy to hear it.
It wasn`t a must win state for him. I think he did well enough with an almost win to get a little bit of momentum going. But it`s not the same as if he had won. It`s all we would be talking about if she lost and he won, when does she drop out?
(LAUGHTER)
WALSH: So, I think -- we would. I mean, come on, we heard a bit of that last night. How quickly does she have to drop out if she loses Iowa?
And it`s a tough state. She came in third in 2008. So, you know, it`s not just little league or T ball to say you did really well. She does get the trophy going forward. She did win.
She also won -- I watched a little caucus in Waterloo which is the most diverse city in Iowa where John Lewis (ph) visited the other night. She took those ten delegates, Waterloo, Iowa looks more like the rest of the country than the rest of Iowa does. She really does have a lot of advantages going forward.
But, you know, Bernie is changing the narrative. I think he did himself a lot of good there, for sure.
HAYES: Ben, Charlie just referenced ethanol. To me, if there was one unambiguous winner last night, it was Ted Cruz, and one ambiguous loser was ethanol.
DOMENECH: Absolutely.
HAYES: Because Cruz did the impossible. He said screw ethanol. He received this backlash. Terri Branstad basically, this wave of anti- endorsements from the Iowa political establishment, that said, I don`t care who you vote for, don`t let it be at the scene Cruz. He comes away with a win last night.
I think it genuinely impacted the power of the ethanol lobby last night.
DOMENECH: I think that`s the big message coming out of this. I mean, Terri Branstad son who is an ethanol lobbyist actually went and caucused for Donald Trump last night. It didn`t make a lick of difference. So, I think that`s a good thing.
The other message I found interesting is one, to you point earlier, Donald Trump isn`t completely going away. This is false frame coming in second as being something that will mortally wound him. He is the guy who bleeds now, but I think he has the capacity to come from that.
And the other thing frankly was I was so impressed with the amount of support that Bernie Sanders got from younger voters. That 84 percent that they`re talking about from that entrance poll, that`s just incredibly impressive to me. I wonder, though, how many of those voters will go over to Hillary Clinton afterwards as she tries to hold this coalition that requires you to win a lot of these younger voters.
Is she going to be able to win them over, over with her message, or is this going to be a challenge for her as she goes into a general election?
HAYES: Yes. Although, Charlie, I remember back in the days of `08, people were extrapolating a lot about the exit polls between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama into the general. Barack Obama is having a hard time with these white voters.
And the fact of the matter is, a Democratic primary electorate is different than a general electorate, particularly when you`re looking at the crosstabs. The bigger for question out of last night, Charlie, is how long does this go? What I saw on both sides last night were results that keep this race going further that they might have had things gone differently last night?
PIERCE: Yes, first of all, if Ted Cruz is the Republican nominee, Hillary Clinton will not have to worry about those young voters going to her in the general election -- I`d say that right now.
Second of all, this will be a long, long process. Bernie Sanders has a lot of money in the bank. Donald Trump -- I agree completely with Ben, that this whole notion that now that he`s lost a primary, all the air will go out of the bubble is silly, because first of all, he`s going to have the other candidates doing all of his dirty work on Marco Rubio in New Hampshire.
As Joan pointed, Chris Christie started today with that. He`s got a lot of money. He answers to nobody but himself. There`s no establishment really on the Republican side to take him out. So, I think you`re going at least until Super Tuesday and probably beyond.
HAYES: Yes, it`s going to be a long one, I think.
Joan Walsh, Charlie Pierce, Ben Domenech, that was great -- thank you very much. >
Still ahead, for a candidate who`s campaign is based on being a winner, what do you do with a second place finish?
Plus, Hillary Clinton breathes a sigh of relief. Does her campaign need to correct course after such a close finish?
And later, last night saw record turn out for the Republican caucus. Should Democrats be worried?
Those stories and more, ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HAYES: Liz Cheney, Dick Cheney`s daughter, just launched her new campaign for Congress and she did squarely it on the wrong foot. You may remember that two years ago, the daughter of the former vice president unsuccessfully ran in a primary for U.S. Senate in Wyoming, where among other things she battled the "carpet bagger" label since she hadn`t lived in the state for years.
Last night, she announced she`s at it again. She`s going to run for Wyoming`s only house seat this time. But she appeared to immediately commit an unforced error.
As noted first by a Wyoming resident, Cheney announced her bid on Facebook as a strong conservative voice for Wyoming. In a post, she wrote, "from Alexandria, Virginia".
The attack ads write themselves.
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TRUMP: I was expected to come in anywhere like 10, 11, 12, 13. I ended coming in second. Didn`t devote tremendous time to it. Didn`t devote tremendous money to it. In fact, I guess in terms of money per vote, I`m at the bottom, meaning the most efficient.
I came in second. A came in a strong second. Third was quite a bit away. I think 2,500 or something, close to 3,000 votes away. That was a big difference between second and third.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: So, everyone was wondering what does it look like when Donald Trump who loves nothing more than to talk about he`s a winner, finally loses?
But that`s what it looks like, spinning his second place finish. There was not contrary to what Trump said there, there was a very big difference between the second place finish and Marco Rubio third place finish.
About an hour ago in Milford, New Hampshire, Trump appeared with the man who endorsed him, Senator Scott Brown, who you may recall, knows a bit about losing as well. He lost his bid to become senator two years ago which was two years after he lost his re-election as senator from Massachusetts. Now, Trump welcomed the endorsement, capping off a fascinating 24 hours.
Last night, Trump gave a fairly gracious concession speech, congratulating Ted Cruz, thanking the people of Iowa. He even crucially took a break from Twitter. Once he reappeared online, he returned to form, as in blaming the media. The media has not covered my long shot fairly, brought a record voters, got second highest vote total in history, as in going after Ted Cruz. Anybody who watched all of Ted Cruz`s far too long, rambling overly flamboyant speech last night would say that`s his Howard Dean moment.
Now, does Trump just weather the Iowa loss and trounces his opponents in New Hampshire, is this finally the Trump, after all those predictions about the end of Trump?
Joining me now, Harry Enten, he`s senior political writer, analyst of FiveThirtyEight.
You guys have undercounted his strength. Last night, well, he had a little bit.
HARRY ENTEN, SENIOR ANALYST, FIVETHIRTYEIGHT: A little.
HAYES: Last night, he underperforms the polls. Does this contribute any data that`s useful this modeling what`s going to happen in New Hampshire?
ENTEN: I think two things. Number, yes, he underperformed his polls. So, is it going to be as we head into New Hampshire, that all these people who say maybe I don`t want to vote for that celebrity. So, I think that`s one factor.
I think the big thing that`s going to change is the media coverage. He`s gotten so much media coverage so far, and now, all of a sudden, he has to split it with Rubio and Cruz. It could contribute to him declining in the polls as we head into New Hampshire.
HAYES: Here`s a question about whether the Trump voters show up. I think it`s wrong to say Trump voters didn`t show up. I tweeted before like, I could see him like getting 10 percent or 60 percent. Like I have no clue, right?
I think it`s wrong to say the Trump voters didn`t show up. I mean, he underperformed, but he did get the second highest vote total in Iowa caucuses in history, right? I mean, there were tens of thousands of people who really did show up. Like there is an actually base of support for Donald Trump that is a real thing and not just a phantasm of the polls.
ENTEN: Sure. But, of course, some of the light polls did show that some people were shifting away from Trump. The other thing with high turn out is you could have high turn out where people are showing up to vote against Donald Trump. And, in fact, that`s what happened to Ted Cruz. He got the highest vote total ever.
So, you know, we`ll have to see what happens in New Hampshire.
HAYES: One thing I think you guys have pointed out at FiveThirtyEight and a number of people is, you know, he was able to go a long time without being attacked a lot whether it was negative ads or getting full scale assault on him. We saw his favorables go down the last few weeks in Iowa when there were ads on the air that were negative attack ads.
ENTEN: Yes, exactly. So, you got super PACs that are going after him and for the first time, Jeb Bush is going to walk the walk instead of just talking. And he`s going to air some ads against him. So, there`s going to be a lot of negative ads against him and I do expect his favorable ratings in New Hampshire which aren`t so hot to begin with may drop even further.
HAYES: But the problem is the game theory still applies, right? And the theory problem has been that no one wants to do Marco Rubio`s dirty work for Marco, right? No one wants to -- when you`re talking about Christie, Kasich and Rubio have all been attacking each other. Is there any reason to think that behavior is going to change?
ENTEN: Maybe it doesn`t need to change, because look at what Marco Rubio accomplished in Iowa. Yes, it was third place, he didn`t get first or even second, but he did finish strongly. So, who is to say when we get this media coverage saying, hey, Rubio is the hot stuff, that he doesn`t coalesce that establishment lane in New Hampshire and begins to rise in polls there, just like he did in Iowa.
HAYES: All right. Harry Enten, thank you very much.
ENTEN: Thank you.
HAYES: Coming up, I had a chance to talk with Iowa caucus-goers last night. As I watched the whole process unfold, I couldn`t help but wonder if this is the best idea. More on that next.
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HAYES: Last night, I was in Iowa to watch hundreds of thousands of Iowans heading to their local caucus sites and make their preferences, for the Democratic and Republican nominees for president. It`s a process, particularly on the Democratic side that takes a level of time and commitment, unlike many others in the electoral process. It`s good for television but potentially not so great for democracy.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Anyone not registered to vote? Come over to this end of the table, please?
BRIAN WILLIAMS, MSNBC ANCHOR: Chris Hayes is at one of the caucus sites tonight.
HAYES: All these people who are coming out here on a Monday night starting to talk to each other and wearing their gear and start to talk to friends about who they want to support. A lot of kibitzing, a lot of joking, a lot of talking.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hi. I`m in a play about Hillary Clinton.
HAYES: You made a play.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, no. I`m in it. I`m playing Monica Lewinsky. No, it`s great.
HAYES: Oh, wow.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I`m caucusing for Bernie.
HAYES: You`re caucusing for Bernie.
You`re caucusing for Bernie.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, I am.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think Rand.
HAYES: Rand Paul.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Jeb Bush.
HAYES: Jeb Bush.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hillary.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I like Donald Trump, because he`s not bought and paid for.
HAYES: Who are you caucusing for tonight?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Bernie Sanders.
HAYES: Really? But you`re a Republican.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah, but I`m not anymore.
HAYES: Who did you caucus for last time? Made a deep impression.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah, no kidding. I was even precinct chairman I think then. I don`t recall.
HAYES: Right now you see the supporters coming in and a lot of volunteers and the precinct captains. The precinct captains are those people who are going to stand up in the room and make their pitch for their candidate.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We have somebody here for Carly Fiorina. Any words for Carly? OK.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hillary Clinton fears Senator Rubio. I mean, it`s clear. She constantly attacks him. It`s ridiculous.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What about Mr. Gilmore.
UIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You want someone to go to Washington the get along, Senator Cruz is not your man.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Huckabee. No one for Huck.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: How many people in here like Obama? Anybody? I think it`s safe to say nobody.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: By voting for Rick, we send a clear signal to ISIS that we`re prepared for war.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I`m asking you from the bottom of my heart from everybody that support in what I believe in please make the right choice, vote for Donald Trump and let`s make America great again.
HAYES: How bit was turnout tonight?
UNIDENTIFEID MALE: Big. We are just over 200 people, which is a lot more than we expected downtown.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Well, we ran out of new registration forms and I had to run and find some more literally in the middle of this.
HAYES: I am in an auditorium, that`s the Sanders supporters right now.
So, there, that small group, people on stage are the 24 O`Malley supporters who are now deciding where to go.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Martin O`Malley 24.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Marco Rubio.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hillary Clinton, 182.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Marco Rubio.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Bernie Sanders, 233.
(APPLAUSE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Rand Paul.
RACHEL MADDOW, MSNBC: One of the more startling updates from this very close race tonight on the Democratic side is that maybe coin flipping had something to do with the results that we got thus far.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You are Rick Santorum precinct captain up there.
By voting for Rick we send a clear signal to ISIS that we`re prepared for war.
And actually, I do -- if you haven`t seen them, I have -- I mean, hold on.
HAYES: Oh, there you go. This is the actual sheet, the tally sheet. And Santorum there`s an x next to him.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah.
HAYES: Well, you didn`t vote for him?
UNIDENIFIED MALE: As I was writing down, my pen ran out of ink and I was just like I can`t just ask somebody for a new pen while I`m doing this.
HAYES: You`re the Santorum dude.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I know.
HAYES: Well...
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Failure to launch.
HAYES: I think failure to launch is exactly what it sounds like.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HAYES: Senator Bernie Sanders is in New Hampshire tonight after what many political observers consider a surprising success in Iowa last night insofar as seven months ago he was down by 24 points to Hillary Clinton yet when the final votes were tallied by the Democratic Party early this morning giving Clinton 49.9 percent of the vote and Sanders 49.6 percent of the vote, a virtual tie.
In some ways it still seemed like less of an accomplishment. And that`s partly because Sanders couldn`t quite pull out the decisive victory in the state where the demographics are much for favorable for him.
Now, on the Clinton side, barely escaping a loss has led to talks of a campaign shake up.
According to The New York Times, quote, Mr. and Mrs. Clinton were discussing bringing on additional staff members to strengthen her campaign operation now that a pitched battle may lie ahead against Mr. Sanders.
Reporter Maggie Haberman pointed out on Twitter, the Clinton`s muscle memory is to talk shake up, bringing in old hands et cetera. In reality, her Iowa field organization saved her last night.
Now a source familiar with the thinking of the campaign tells NBC News, there are no plans to shake up the staff.
I sat down with Democratic Congressman Keith Ellison who has endorsed Bernie Sanders, and Howard Dean, former Democratic presidential candidate and Hillary Clinton surrogate.
And I began by asking Dean whether the Clinton campaign was in good shape for the contest to come or do they adjust their strategy after struggling to beat Sanders?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DEAN: I think she`s doing fine. I think Bernie had a good night, Hillary had a better one. And that`s what she needed to do.
She did what she had to do is to win -- which is win Iowa.
Look, what her stock and trade is that she`s experienced. She`s done this before. She`s the person who is most prepared to be president across the entire field, not just the Democratic field, and that`s what she needs to keep doing.
So, I wouldn`t change a lot.
HAYES: Congressman, you`ve campaigned a bit with Bernie Sanders. And I think there was a question -- I think last night a victory, an outright victory there would have really shocked the political world. I think had he lost by five or seven points everyone would have said, well, that was nice, that was fun while it lasted.
Where is the Sanders campaign after last night`s result?
REP. KEITH ELLISON, (D) MINNESOTA: Bernie is in this. He`s excited. His base is excited. His campaign is excited. And this thing is within our grasp.
Right now turning to New Hampshire. And I think the excitement is doing nothing but building.
HAYES: Let me ask you this, last night when you watch -- he did his speech late. It was the thing that has been so I think effective about the Sanders campaign is that they had the same message from day one to now. It has not wavered. And I think there`s a person out there who thinks that it`s not completely authentic to who Bernie Sanders is and what he believes in.
That said, at a certain point, doesn`t the message have to expand outwards a bit if he`s going go play deep into this race?
ELLISON: Well, look, you know, the problems that are facing Americans are pretty persistent, Chris.
I mean, look, you know, income inequality, stagnating pay, unaffordable college tuition, I mean, the trade deals that are offshoring, exporting our jobs. He`s hitting on the very things in an authentic, engaging way that are affecting people every single day. Those things are not going go away.
And I think Bernie Sanders better continue to talk to those things, because there`s a whole lot of people out there who have not heard that message all across this country. And they need to hear somebody who is speaking to their bread and butter stuff in an authentic, meaningful way.
HAYES: Howard, in terms of this sort of authenticity of that message. I mean, the Clinton campaign message has been a lot about her resume and experience, which you mentioned before. Does it not give you pause that that lead her to a tie, functionally a tie in Iowa. She won by four out of whatever 1,300 votes.
And then if you look at the other -- the mood of the electorate on the other side, they couldn`t care less about resume.
I mean, the idea of going to the American people in this year, 2016, with a resume based message for presidency, does that not worry you, given what we`ve seen so far?
DEAN: Her only message is not just about resume. She was the first person before anybody else got in the race to say that she would make sure that Citizen`s United was reversed by her appointments to the Supreme Court.
25, 30 years ago she was chose the Children`s Defense Fund over a lucrative law career in New York.
So, I mean, she`s been making these choices. She probably knows more about health care than anybody running for office. I mean, she`s been great, particularly in encouraging girls to go beyond the boundaries that have been set by society. She`s got a lot of reasons that progressive people would want to vote for her.
So, I don`t see -- I mean, I use the resume argument because that`s what pulled me into her campaign. I wanted somebody who was incredibly competent, particularly in foreign policy. There are a lot of reasons to vote for Hillary Clinton besides the resume.
HAYES: Congressman, there was a moment last night, I think there`s been a lot of overblown coverage of the vitriol online between supporters of the different camps. And I think most of that has been fairly trivial, honestly, having lived through and covered 2008, which if people want to see toxic exchanges in a primary, they should go revisit that.
There was a moment, though, last night when the crowd booed Hillary Clinton when she appeared in that headquarters in Iowa. I`m just curious your response to that.
ELLISON: Well, my response is that we`ve been a high ground campaign. We got to stay a high ground campaign. Hillary Clinton is not the enemy. She happens to be a contestant in this race. She deserves respect. Howard Dean is right, she has an excellent resume and has served this country. And we should never forget that.
But here`s the thing, Chris, she declared herself to be a progressive. This is awesome news. I`m not saying she`s not one, I`m saying that it`s great that both candidates declared themselves to be progressives in this race and see themselves and self-identify that way.
Anybody who is thinking about the progressive movement and the movement to put American citizens first as opposed to the billionaires has got to be glad about that.
HAYES: Howard, what is your benchmark for New Hampshire as you look at this campaign? What`s the goal here?
DEAN: The goal so to win. And if you don`t win, you do the best you can. So, I don`t play the expectations game. I know what that is.
HAYES: Well, but everyone does play the expectations game. I mean, good lord, Marco Rubio has managed to convince the world that a third place finish is the greatest political victory anyone has pulled off in modern era.
DEAN: Well, there is a reason for that. And it is in some ways. There are two primaries going on in the Republican side. One is for the accomplishment vote and the other is for the nomination. And there`s only going to be one accomplishment candidate and Marco Rubio just put his claim in for that.
If he comes in third in New Hampshire and Cruz and Trump win or come in first and second on that one, I think you`re going to kiss Kristie and Kasich good-bye and maybe Jeb Bush too.
HAYES: Oh, there will be a lot of culling of the herd. The question now on the Democratic side, though, is with -- Congressman Ellison, with this fundraising capacity the Sanders campaign has, I mean, the plan is to go deep here, right?
ELLISON: Well, this is not a broke campaign. You know, this is not a campaign of a bunch of poor, hungry, but idealistic people who are just going to stick it out.
We have a campaign that has the resources that it needs. No super PAC money average donation around $27. I mean, people are funding this campaign because they believe in it.
They`re holding -- they`re hanging their hopes on it. And that`s why I`m very convinced that we will go deep into this thing. And he`s already changed the national dialogue. And I`m really excited abou tthat.
HAYES: Congressman Keith Ellison and Howard Dean, thank you both, gentlemen, for your time.
DEAN: Thank you.
ELLISON: Thank you, Howard.
Still to come, we have some very important business to attend to updating the all important 2016 fantasy candidate draft. That`s next.
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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MIKE HUCKABEE, FRM. GOVERNOR OF ARKANSAS: Elections are about choices. The main thing I need to say to you tonight is that as we come here tonight, it`s time to officially suspend the campaign.
MARTIN O`MALLEY, FRM. GOVERNOR OF MARYLAND: The people have made their choice. So, tonight, I have to tell you that I am suspending this presidential bid.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: That`s right. The people of Iowa have made their choice. The battle is over, now it`s time to tally the casualties.
So, let`s update our All In 2016 Fantasy Candidate Draft.
Mike Huckabee and Martin O`Malley join George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, Bobbi Jindal, Rick Perry and Scott Walker, as well as Jim Webb, in having their hopes and dreams of becoming president crushed.
So, which draft contestants have the latest candidates to drop out of the race?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Michael Steele choosing the second to last, otherwise known as penultimate candidate.
Martin O`Malley.
MICHAEL STEELE, FRM. RNC CHAIRMAN: O`Malley`s going to be. I think, again, I`ve got a lot of VP potential.
JOY REID, MSNBC CORRESPONDENT: Well, I`ve got to tell you so far this game has to be, quote the immortal Michael Jackson, devilish. So, I`m going go with number six.
HAYES: Nice. Joy Reid makes a satanic play at work.
No. She gets the preacher instead.
REID: I think he will run. I think he will do very well in Iowa.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: Or not.
OK, let`s take a look at the current standings. Michael Steele is in the lead with 6,900 whopping points.
Jess McIntosh only a hundred points behind. Looks like Joy Reid, Sam Seder, and Josh Barrow have quite a bit of catching up to do.
Coming up, something the media missed last night that tells us a lot about the current state of the race. Don`t go anywhere.
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HAYES: The first votes in the 2016 presidential race are finally in the books. And we have learned a whole lot beyond who simply won and lost in Iowa. Indeed, last night gave us all these fascinating clues about what the state of the race is, including a comment Hillary Clinton made in her victory party that really caught my ear.
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CLINTON: I know that we can finish the job of universal health care coverage for every single man, woman and child.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HAYES: What that claim tells us about the Democratic race, other lessons from Iowa that most people have missed, next.
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HAYES: Joining me now to discuss what we learned from the Iowa caucuses, MSNBC national correspondent Joy Reid and Katrina Vanden Heuvel, editor and publisher of The Nation.
Great to see you again after last night.
REID: I know. I feel like just saw you like (inaudible).
HAYES: All right. So, that clip, let`s start with the sort of lesson about Hillary Clinton`s campaign in that message.
I thought that line finishing the job of providing universal health care to every man, woman and child is a recognition of the ways in which he the Clinton campaign`s message is being shaped in response to Sanders.
KATRINA VANDEN HEUVEL, THE NATION: Absolutely. It`s a different message than a week or so before.
HAYES: Literally then a week or so before.
VENDEN HEUVEL: When she was sort of attacking universal health care.
But what she`s -- I think one of the reasons it was a razor thin win for Hillary Clinton is that she did this populist pivot and she embraced essentially what would have been Bernie Sanders` core issues in this campaign.
I think last night was historic. Joy will agree one reason was Hillary Clinton, first woman to win the Iowa caucuses. But it was also -- we should take a measure of how historic it was that Bernie Sanders` bold, populist agenda challenged the grip of big money and electrified young people and working class. It`s an extraordinary shift in this country`s politics.
REID: Well, I definitely feel like the Hillary Clinton campaign is like a learning robot, right. They learned so much from 2008 and corrected a lot of the mistakes. They definitely did the Barack Obama 2008 version of the ground game. They`ve been in there for a year. And I think they proved that that kind of organization matters.
I was tweeting yesterday that when I went to the Hillary Clinton campaign it was a well-oiled machine, whereas we went to the Bernie Sanders offices, they were like a tent revival, right. There was a lot of emotion. They have many more volunteers, almost twice as many volunteers, but the Hillary Clinton campaign was very disciplined. And they are learning from the things that are working for Bernie Sanders.
VANDEN HEUVEL: I mean, this whole campaign has essentially. Let`s remember, when Bernie Sanders entered this race, we were looking at inevitability, right. We are now witnessing whatever happens, and it is obviously a steep -- still steep for Bernie Sanders. He has won because he has placed on the agenda of this campaign issues that wouldn`t have gotten the attention.
Inequality, taxing the very rich, climate even. And this populist agenda is going to be driven forward. And by the way, are witnessing a Millennial generation that we, for a long time didn`t think was into a bold and populist agenda, it is going to transform the Democratic Party and our politics.
HAYES: OK. Here`s the question. He won by 70 points among young folks, right.
But here`s -- so one of the lessons I think is -- so, one of the lessons is Hillary Clinton`s message is adapting in response to the Bernie Sanders message, right.
The other is, organization matters. We saw that both in Democratic and on Ted Cruz`s side, where that was -- they built a heck of a machine over there, right.
But, the other thing, the third lesson to me and I think people aren`t talking about enough is, is -- do Democrats have an enthusiasm issue. Because when you talk about how incredibly enthusiastic Bernie Sanders supporters are, and there`s a lot of very enthusiastic Clinton supporters, and they both had very good organizations. I mean, look at this data, right, 2008, 239,000 Democrats come out. Last night it was 171,000.
VANDEN HEUVEL: That`s right.
HAYES: The Republicans moving in the opposite direction: 119,000 in 2008, 186,000 last night. That -- if you`re a Democrat and you look at that...
REID: That`s a problem.
And by the way, the other problem, I think, and one of the reason it was a narrow loss for Bernie Sanders, is that within that 171,000 -- remember, his threshhold was about 170,000, he had a lower percentage of voters 18 to 30 than Barack Obama had in 2008 and asmaller percentage of first time voters, it went from over 50 percent to a little over 45 percent.
So, we`re talking about Democrats going in the wrong direction in terms of motivating and turnout.
HAYES: You don`t think -- that doesn`t worry you?
VANDEN HEUVEL: No, it doesn`t worry me. Because I think we`re looking. Demography isn`t destiny, but we`re looking at the rising American majority, which is going to play a critical role in this election. Democrats have a better map.
But more important, they have a better message. And I also think there`s been media malpractice and Democratic Party malpractice. There should be been more debates. I really do think the Republicans have beefited enormously. You buried the Democrat debates on football weekends.
HAYES: Let me stop you there and make a plug. We have a debate on schedule for Thursday night, which as far as I can tell is going to happen on Thursday night.
VANDEN HEUVEL: It was malpractice because for too long the Republican message was what people were hearing.
And put aside that the media lavished all the attention on Donald Trump and didn`t pay attention to Bernie Sanders rallies, but it was a mistake and Hillary Clinton is a good debater.
REID: And thing is that I think what also what happened outside of just the lavishing of attention on Donald Trump, there`s been a robust debate within the republican sphere and within the conservative movement about which of these polarities matters the most, whether it is movement conservatism or whether iti s evangelicals. They`ve have that robust debate.
Democrats have been locked into this inevitability argument for almost a year last year. They didn`t get to really get into...
(CROSSTALK)
VANDEN HEUVEL: And the issues, by the way, which are winning issues in this country: affordable college, decent pensions, universal health care, preserving and expanding Social Security, these are messages and ideas that were not heard for too long because you had a shut down of real debate.
HAYES: Here`s an interesting entrance polling last night. This is of Democrats. Should next president continue Obama`s policies? Continue policies 55 percent, more liberal, 33 percent, less liberal, 7 percent.
Now, I`m not quite sure if I find that surprising.
REID: Not in Iowa. It`s not surprising in Iowa. I mean, Iowa is a very liberal Democratic cohort. So, Iowa is this interesting state where the Republicans are really Republicany and really conservative and the Democrats are really liberal, much more liberal than they are in the rest of the country.
HAYES: Oh, so you think 33 is high?
REID: I think 33 -- well, it`s high for Democrats, because nationally, I think that Democrats are not as liberal as Iowa and Vermont and New Hampshire.
VANDEN HEUVEL: I think it`s a mistake for Secretary of State Clinton to run as a candidate of too much continuity. What she did last night was something different. She pivoted away from that continuity into saying I`m going to be the future.
You know, part of the big problem here -- let me just step back -- is I think a lot of people in this country are still angry on the Republican and Democratic side, rightly. Banks are still big. No one has gone to jail for financial fraud. And the establishment in this country and their choices have wrecked serial devastations on this country.
HAYES: Right, but then how as a Democratic candidate you run against that?
After eight years of an Democratic president, you say, man, that serial devastation.
REID: But -- so, the one thing I have to say, Katrina, is that there is a portion of Democratic left that is angry. But it is mainly among white liberals, quite frankly, the same liberals that have been angry at Barack Obama since 2009. They form the core of Bernie Sanders support. There are some who are people of color. There are some who are young.
I spoke with very passionate African-American supporters of Bernie Sanders whose animating core is disappointment with Barack Obama, but the vast majority of the base of the Democratic Party is pro-Obama. They want to continue Obama`s policies.
HAYES: This is a question that is going to -- that will be played out over time.
VANDEN HEUVEL: Bernie Sanders needs to introduce himself. And I think he is going to find a hearing in states which many...
HAYES: We`re going to see if those South Carolina numbers if they move or not.
Joy Reid, Katrina Vanden Heuvel, thank you.
That is All In for this evening.
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. END